Justin Rose broke a four-year winless drought at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, winning by three strokes over Brendon Todd and Brandon Wu in a Monday morning finish. He is the first European to win in the event's history dating to 1937.

Rose cashed a 35-1 ticket for this column (to go along with Abraham Ancer's 30-1 win at the Saudi International) and he rises into the OWGR Top 50 and likely secured a spot on the European Ryder Cup team later this fall. Rounding out the top 10 at Pebble Beach were: Denny McCarthy, Keith Mitchell, Peter Malnati (all T-4), Taylor Pendrith, Kevin Yu, Ryan Moore and Joseph Bramlett (all T-7).

This week, Super Bowl LVII is not the only big sporting event in the Phoenix/Scottsdale area as the WM Phoenix Open comes in with one of the best fields of the season. Twenty-two of the top 25 players in the OWGR (and 37 of the top 50) are in the field this week. The top 10 players in the FedExCup standings (and 26 of the top 30) plus all 11 players who have won on the PGA Tour for the 2022-23 season are in as well.

World No. 1 Rory McIlroy along with World No. 3 and Scottsdale resident Jon Rahm, who has four top-10 finishes and has never finished worse than 16th in six appearances here, are the co-favorites at 8-1. McIlroy has played this event once (2021, when he finished 13th). World No. 2 Scottie Scheffler (14-1) cashed for us last year at 28-1, and he is half that price this year to defend his WM Phoenix Open title, which he earned in a playoff over World No. 5 Patrick Cantlay (20-1).

Xander Schauffele (16-1) was runner-up in 2021 and third last year. Collin Morikawa (20-1) has finished second (Sentry Tournament of Champions) and third (Farmers Insurance Open) in his two starts so far in 2023. Tony Finau (20-1) finished second in 2020, losing in a playoff. Justin Thomas (22-1) finished third here in consecutive years in 2019 and 2020.

Max Homa (22-1) comes to TPC Scottsdale off a victory two weeks ago in San Diego. Team South Korea — Sungjae Im and the debuting Tom Kim — checks in at 30-1. Cameron Young (35-1) finished runner-up to Ancer last week in Saudi Arabia. Hideki Matsuyama (35-1) is a two-time WM Phoenix Open champion (2016 and 2017). Victor Hovland (35-1) and Matt Fitzpatrick (40-1), along with Jordan Spieth (40-1), played at Pebble Beach last weekend, but only Hovland (13th) ended up in the mix on the weekend.

Although he did not make the playoff, Sahith Theegala (50-1) had last year's WM Phoenix Open title within his grasp, but a wayward drive on the 71st hole sunk his chances.

The Waste Management Phoenix Open, nicknamed the "Greatest Show on Grass" and more recently hashtagged as #ThePeoplesOpen, began in 1932 as the Arizona Open. The tournament alternated between the Phoenix Country Club and the Arizona Country Club until 1975 when the latter took over as host until 1987 when the event was moved to its present home of the Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale. This event is historically the best-attended event in golf as the weekly attendance usually exceeds 500,000 spectators. The signature hole is the 16th, nicknamed “The Coliseum,” it’s a par-3 of 162 yards and possesses a party atmosphere as many college students from nearby Arizona State University flock to the course. Poor shots are jeered while good to great shots are met with raucous cheers. It’s almost as if “Happy Gilmore” comes to life here. With even more spectators in town for the Super Bowl, this will be an even livelier scene than normal.

Since 1973, the WMPO has been held on the weekend opposite the Super Bowl. Many big names have won, including three-time winners Arnold Palmer (1961, 1962, 1963), Gene Littler (1955, 1959, 1969), Mark Calcavecchia (1989, 1992, 2001) and Phil Mickelson (1996, 2005, 2013). Other legendary names to win here include Byron Nelson (1939, 1945), Ben Hogan (1946, 1947), Jimmy Demaret (1949, 1950), Billy Casper (1957), Jack Nicklaus (1964), Johnny Miller (1974, 1975) and Vijay Singh (1995, 2003). The tournament scoring record of 256 (-28) is shared by Calcavecchia (2001) and Mickelson (2013). The course record of 60 (-11) shared by Calcavecchia (2001), Grant Waite (1996) and Mickelson (2005, 2013).

This year, the WM Phoenix Open is a "designated" event with a $20 million purse and $3.6 million going to the winner.

The Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale was designed in 1986 by Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish. It was redesigned in 2014 with the course being lengthened and the greens being resurfaced, which makes the low scoring of the records listed above obsolete. The track plays as a par-71 of 7,261 yards, which is average length by PGA Tour standards and comprised of 11 par-4s, four par-3s and three par-5s. TPC Scottsdale is about 1,530 feet above sea level (second highest on the PGA Tour), so the ball will travel a bit longer at altitude, but only around 2%.

In terms of scoring, TPC Scottsdale rated the 21st easiest on the PGA Tour last year, so it is middle of the pack.

The fairways are a Rye and Fescue overseed with an average width of 30.8 feet (12th narrowest on tour). The rough is relatively short at just 2 inches. The Poa trivialis/rye overseeded greens are firm and average in terms of speed (12 on the stimpmeter) and are the seventh largest (7,069 square feet) on tour. The back nine, particularly the last four holes, is the showcase of this course.

It starts on the 15th hole with a 553-yard par-5 that features an island green. Players typically have no issue reaching in two shots, and as the 15th-easiest hole on the course, making a birdie should be the worst-case scenario.

The par-3 16th hole, known as “The Coliseum,” is one of the most intimidating and raucous shots in golf. The chaos reverberating from the grandstands can be an issue for some, but it should actually be a simple hole that plays anywhere from 120 to 160 yards into a two-tiered green.

As mentioned, the par-4 17th is the most stressful and exciting hole on the course. Tournaments are won and lost here (as Sahith Theegala found out last year). It is because of holes like the 17th that since 2009, only two 54-hole leaders have managed to close out and win the tournament on Sunday.

The closing hole is a 442-yard par-4 that doglegs to the left with water down the entire left side. This water hazard has ended many chances for victory as it has the third-highest double-bogey or worse rate on the course at 2.7% and plays over par.

There are four par-3s on the layout and three of them measure over 180 yards.

Holes 7 and 12 were two of the four toughest holes on the course last year with No. 7 having just a 9.5% birdie rate last season (only hole sub-11%).

The majority of the 11 par-4s measure between 440-475 yards.

Hole 11 had the highest bogey rate on the course (19.6%).

Holes 11, 12 and 14 begin a tough stretch and were three of the four toughest holes last season.

All three of the par-5s measure just over 550 yards. All three had an eagle rate north of 2% of last season and Hole 13 had a higher birdie rate (45.2%) than par rate (43.6%) last season. Twelve of the top-13 finishers last season gained strokes on par-5s.

Correlated courses to TPC Scottsdale include TPC Summerlin, PGA West Stadium Course, TPC Sawgrass, Summit Club, Silverado, Concession and PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course.

Recent History/Winners
2022: Scottie Scheffler (-16/268); 25-1*

2021: Brooks Koepka (-19/265); 50-1

2020: Webb Simpson (-17/267); 14-1**

2019: Rickie Fowler (-17/267); 22-1

2018: Gary Woodland (-18/266); 50-1***

2017: Hideki Matsuyama (-17/267); 11-1****

2016: Hideki Matsuyama (-14/270); 25-1 *****

2015: Brooks Koepka (-15/269); 40-1

2014: Kevin Stadler (-16/268); 125-1

Here are winner trends for the Waste Management Phoenix Open:

14 of the last 16 winners had played in at least two previous WM Phoenix Open events.
14 of the last 16 winners had at least one previous career victory on the PGA Tour.
11 of the last 12 winners had a finish of seventh or better in one of their last five starts before their win at the WM Phoenix Open.
13 of the last 15 winners had finished 11th or better in a previous WM Phoenix Open.
13 of the last 15 winners had at least one previous top-10 that season.
17 of the last 20 winners were age 34 or younger.
11 of the last 14 winners were ranked No. 55 or better in the OWGR.
11 of the last 14 winners had at least three career wins.

Bogey Avoidance (Last 36 rounds)

Rory McIlroy 30.6
Tony Finau 27.7
Xander Schauffele 27.3
Matt Fitzpatrick 26.5
Andrew Putnam 25.5
Patrick Cantlay 25
Shane Lowry 23.6
Lanto Griffin 22.6
Aaron Wise 22.3
Jason Day 21.2
Tom Kim 20.4
Maverick McNealy 20.2
Brian Harman 20.2
Sungjae Im 19.6
Scottie Scheffler 19.6
Joel Dahmen 19.3

Over the last seven years, the winners have averaged a rank of 18th for Strokes Gained: Putting on these large and flat greens. However, there lies some tricky, short grass around these greens. Most greens feature collection areas that funnel errant approaches leading to the 10th-toughest conditions to scramble for par on tour.

Collin Morikawa (18-1, Circa Sports)

Morikawa started 2023 with a second (Sentry ToC) and a third (Farmers), which is why the opening prices of 25-1 have disappeared.

His work with new putting coach Stephen Sweeney has paid immediate dividends as he has gained 7.1 strokes combined with the putter in his first two events.

Morikawa, winless in 2022, has a bigger price here at TPC Scottsdale, a course that better suits him, than he hid at the 7,700-yard Torrey Pines.

Based in Las Vegas, Morikawa is adept at desert golf.

Tony Finau (20-1, BetMGM)

Finau lives just up the road from Scottsdale. He has some unfinished business here, having lost out to Webb Simpson in the 2020 WMPO playoff.

He has three victories in his last 11 stroke-play events with none of them coming on the West Coast, where he has always seemingly been at his best. He has finished fourth at PGA West in 2021; fourth (2017), sixth (2018), sixth (2020) and second (2021) at Torrey Pines; second (2018) and second (2021) at Riviera Country Club, plus second (2018) at Silverado Country Club.

Finau has two top-10s this season, including a ninth two weeks ago in San Diego, where a Saturday 64 on the South Course at Torrey Pines put him in contention.

Granted, Finau has missed the cut in five of seven appearances here, but he is a different player now and is playing the best and most consistent golf of his career.

Cameron Young (29-1, Circa Sports)

Young finished runner-up last weekend in Saudi Arabia, giving this column a 1-2 finish in the event as Abraham Ancer got home for us at 30-1.

The travel could be a factor in the opening round, but he should be motivated to get his first PGA Tour win. He was also placed into a non-featured pairing (with Martin Laird and Richy Werenski) as the No. 16 player in the OWGR. Is that punishment for going over and playing the Saudi event last week? Who knows?

Young leads this elite field for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee and is fourth for Birdie Or Better Gained.

I bet him in the high 30s (he opened 45-1 at DraftKings), but those prices are long gone. Anything around 30, though, is worth it.

Sungjae Im (29-1, Circa Sports)

Im finished fourth last time out at the Farmers in San Diego two weeks ago. He gained seven shots on approach which was second behind eventual winner Max Homa.

He ranks 12th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total at TPC Scottsdale. Im has also won at TPC Summerlin, which is another West Coast desert track that has some similarities to TPC Scottsdale.

Im was seventh here on debut in 2019.

Tom Kim (30-1, SuperBook Sports)

Kim makes his debut here and oftentimes it takes players time to get used to the raucous atmosphere in this event, but the charismatic and personable South Korean should thrive on it like he did at the Presidents Cup last fall.

He has seemingly taken to desert golf as well with a win at the Shriners in Las Vegas last fall and sixth three weeks ago at the AMEX in Palm Springs.

Kim ranked first for Strokes Gained: Tee To Green when fifth at the Sentry Tournament of Champions last month and was third in that category in his Vegas win.

Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy sit at the top of the board at around +800 and both have played well here. Rahm has the local ties as an Arizona State alum and never finished worse than 16th in seven tries. McIlroy has made one stop a couple years back, finishing 13th. They’ve also got three wins between them in 2023 and we’re only about six weeks into the year, so the form couldn’t be better.

In the teens, we have Xander Schauffele, the defending champ Scottie Scheffler and Tony Finau. Finau has a runner-up finish here to go with five missed cuts, which is enough to keep me away in this range. Schauffele fits well here. He’s finished inside the top 20 in all five starts.

The +2000 range is loaded with Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay, Max Homa, Hideki Matsuyama and Sungjae Im. I played Morikawa, who was in the +2500-2800 range but has since dropped down to +1800-2000, depending on the book. I wouldn’t play him at that number now but it’s worth a look. Thomas in the 20s is very interesting on a course he really seems to like. He’s finished in the top 20 five straight times. Matsuyama has a great record here, winning twice. Cantlay lost to Scheffler in a playoff last year in his debut. Homa and Im have decent records here as well, but it’s hard to stand out being priced in the same range as the aforementioned group.