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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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NCAAB Lagniappe 2/08
Wednesday, 02/08/2023 (699) TENNESSEE vs. (700) VANDERBILT
Favoring: VANDERBILT against the spread.
Play Against - Road teams as an favorite or pick (TENNESSEE) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, a top-level team (>=80%) playing a team with a losing record
(46-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.7%, +33.9 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (7-4 +2.6 units).
Wednesday, 02/08/2023 (699) TENNESSEE vs. (700) VANDERBILT
Favoring: VANDERBILT against the spread.
Play Against - A road team (TENNESSEE) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, a top-level team (>=80%) playing a team with a losing record
(46-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.3%, +32.8 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (7-4 +2.6 units).
Wednesday, 02/08/2023 (739) NEW MEXICO ST vs. (740) GRAND CANYON
Favoring: NEW MEXICO ST against the spread.
Play Against - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GRAND CANYON) - after a close win by 3 points or less, with 3+ more starters returning from last year than opponent
(93-42 since 1997.) (68.9%, +46.8 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2 -0.2 units).
Wednesday, 02/08/2023 (739) NEW MEXICO ST vs. (740) GRAND CANYON
Favoring: NEW MEXICO ST against the spread.
Play Against - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GRAND CANYON) - off a close win by 3 points or less over a conference rival, with 3+ more starters returning from last year than opponent
(65-26 since 1997.) (71.4%, +36.4 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1 +0.9 units).
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02-08-23 08:20 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Wednesday, 02/08/2023 (715) N IOWA vs. (716) EVANSVILLE
Favoring: N IOWA on the first half line.
Play On - Road favorites vs. the 1rst half line (N IOWA) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against a poor defensive team (74-78 PPG), after allowing 75 points or more 3 straight games
(29-6 since 1997.) (82.9%, +22.4 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0 +3 units).
Wednesday, 02/08/2023 (1547) BUCKNELL vs. (1548) NAVY
Favoring: NAVY on the first half line.
Play On - Favorites of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (NAVY) - after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games
(94-41 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.6%, +48.9 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (10-4 +5.6 units).
Wednesday, 02/08/2023 (659) HOFSTRA vs. (660) NORTHEASTERN
Favoring: HOFSTRA on the first half line.
Play On - Favorites of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (HOFSTRA) - after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games
(94-41 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.6%, +48.9 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (10-4 +5.6 units).
Wednesday, 02/08/2023 (721) TULSA vs. (722) HOUSTON
Favoring: TULSA on the first half line.
Play On - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (TULSA) - revenging a home blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, after a home game where both teams scored 75 points or more
(27-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.8%, +20.4 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).
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02-08-23 08:24 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Wednesday, 02/08/2023 (735) LSU vs. (736) MISSISSIPPI ST
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Home teams against the total (MISSISSIPPI ST) - poor shooting team (40-42.5%) against an average defensive team (42.5-45%) after 15+ games, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 40% or less
(47-14 since 1997.) (77.0%, +31.6 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1 -1.1 units).
Wednesday, 02/08/2023 (1537) VERMONT vs. (1538) MAINE
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is 60.5 to 65.5 (VERMONT) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3.5 PPG diff.) after 15 or more games, after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half
(35-9 since 1997.) (79.5%, +25.1 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0 +3 units).
Wednesday, 02/08/2023 (683) IUPUI vs. (684) WRIGHT ST
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is 65.5 to 70.5 (WRIGHT ST) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a terrible team (<=20%)
(32-8 since 1997.) (80.0%, +23.2 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +1 units).
Wednesday, 02/08/2023 (1527) WINTHROP vs. (1528) UNC-ASHEVILLE
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is 65.5 to 70.5 (UNC-ASHEVILLE) - revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less, off an upset loss as a road favorite
(61-24 since 1997.) (71.8%, +34.6 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).
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02-08-23 08:24 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Closing out Wednesdays action in the Southeastern Conference, Mississippi State looks to add to its winning streak by beating LSU at the Humphrey Coliseum.
The Bulldogs have racked up three straight victories to enter this matchup with a 15-7 record overall and a 3-7 mark in the SEC.
Meanwhile, the Tigers have struggled since entering conference action, dropping 10 straight to sit at 12-11 on the year.
In a game with major postseason ramifications, we should have two desperate teams that are looking for a win under first-year head coaches.
Head coach Matt McMahons debut season in Baton Rouge was off to a great start after he picked up 11 wins throughout the nonconference schedule. However, the program has won just once since, which came all the way back on Dec. 28.
The struggles have really shown on the road, where the average margin of defeat in the SEC has been 17.2 points per game. The Tigers have also allowed an average of 79.2 PPG in those losses.
Even in the teams poor performances, forward KJ Williams has been a bright star for LSU. He enters this game as the leagues third-best scorer at 16.7 PPG.
He also leads the Tigers in rebounding at 7.6 RPG, which is going to be very key in this matchup against Mississippi State big man Tolu Smith.
In a similar fashion to McMahon, Bulldogs head coach Chris Jans regime at his new school also got off to a flying start. He opened the season with 11 straight wins before stumbling to open SEC play.
However, the Bulldogs have responded with victories over No. 17 TCU, Missouri and South Carolina.
After this winning run, MSU has moved up to 46th in the NET rankings, which gives the program a chance to make the NCAA Tournament under its new coach.
The Bulldogs calling card this season has been their play on the defensive end of the floor, where they rank inside the top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency (11th), effective field goal percentage (15th), forcing turnovers (12th) and defending 2-pointers (16th), according to BartTorvik.
This is also the same squad that ranks 42nd in opponent 3-point percentage.
Smith leads MSU on offense, and he was named SEC Player of the Week last week after averaging 20 PPG and 10 RPG. The veteran center leads the conference in field goal percentage (58.3%) to go along with averages of 14.9 PPG and 8.4 RPG this season.
The Tigers issues have been well documented in SEC play, but theyre magnified in the opening periods of contests. LSU has averaged just 26.4 PPG in the first half of conference road games, which is not good when its facing a Bulldog squad that ranks third in the country in first-half points allowed.
Over the last six home games, MSU has held opponents to just 23.3 PPG, which is a stretch that includes No. 6 Tennessee, No. 3 Alabama, No. 17 TCU and a high-scoring Missouri team. This same bet would have cashed in four of those matchups and in 70% of all Bulldogs games this season.
Tempo is also key when betting totals, and both of these programs like to play at a slow pace. The Tigers rank 268th in tempo, KenPom, while Mississippi State is even slower at 329th.
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02-08-23 08:48 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Central Florida @ Wichita State
Central Florida (13-9, 4-6) ranked #63 by KenPom
Tempo: #321
Experience: #162
Continuity: #336
UCF lost its last five games SU, giving up 78.8 ppg.
Knights are 1-4 SU on AAC road, 2-2 ATS as a road dog.
UCF has #53 eFG% defense in country.
UCF is #17 team on offensive boards, #277 on defensive end.
Knights are 5-7 vs teams ranked in top 125.
UCFs schedule, to this point: #77
bench minutes: #187
UCFs best win: 60-56 over #29 Oklahoma State
Wichita State (12-11, 5-6) ranked #117 by KenPom
Tempo: #254
Experience: #284
Continuity: #321
Wichita split its last six games
Wichita lost four of its five AAC home games.
Shockers are shooting 29.3% on the arc (#347)
Shockers have #281 eFG%, the #23 eFG% defense,
Wichita is 0-8 vs teams ranked in top 100.
Wichitas schedule, to this point: #110
bench minutes: #138
Wichitas best win: 55-43 over #123 Grand Canyon
UCF (-7.5) beat Wichita State 52-45 at home December 28
UCF won last two meetings, after losing previous eight.
Knights lost their last five visits to Wichita, last two by 5-5 points.
AAC home teams are 5-12 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
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02-08-23 08:58 AM |
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