Let's get the season rolling, with a full slate of EUROPA on Thursday, let's get after'em
GL

Burnley come into their EFL Cup 2nd round clash against Sheffield United with any competitive football behind them after their Premier League clash with Manchester United last weekend was postponed. Sheffield United themselves will be low on confidence after being outplayed by Wolves 2-0 in their season opener on Monday night football.

The Blades will be keen to put their 2-0 defeat hosting Wolves behind them, while Chris Wilder will hope to see more concentration defensively as they were unusually suspect in that regard.

Burnley are yet to play this term, but Sean Dyche’s team won’t be offering up any major surprises in their approach and we wouldn’t expect any sort of goal glut here.

The Clarets lack the same cutting thrust of Wolves and will find it harder to penetrate their visitors’ backline, while 16 of Sheffield Utd’s 21 away matches since the start of last season have seen fewer than three goals over 90 minutes.

The Clarets were demolished 5-0 away at Man City upon project restart, but seven of their eight subsequent matches featured fewer than three goals, including three 1-1 draws and a further three 1-0 victories.

Burnley are often involved in tight encounters and excluding the top-four finishers and the relegated trio, each of their last 13 matches versus Premier League opposition have been settled one way or the other by just the single strike or none at all.

Chris Wilder will be a little concerned at how his team have performed in recent months and they’re now just W3-D2-L7 since the return to action in June, as those victories came over top sides Spurs, Wolves and Chelsea at Bramall Lane.

However, they lost four of six winless road trips over this period, which included stalemates with Aston Villa and Burnley themselves, as well as defeats by a minimum two-goal margin against each of Newcastle, Man Utd, Leicester and Southampton.

That encourages us to get behind the hosts, though for better value we’d couple that with the clean sheet. Indeed, 12 of Sheffield Utd’s 15 defeats last term saw them fail to register on the board, including five of six on their travels as each loss on the road has come this side of Christmas.

Meanwhile, when facing Premier League opposition, 13 of Burnley’s 15 victories at any venue last term saw them keep clean sheets, as eight of their last 10 home wins since March 2019 have also been to nil.

A note of caution must be sounded with captain Ben Mee one of three players sidelined for Burnley, along with Jack Cork and Ashley Barnes. However, they look set to rebuff an approach from West Ham for his centre-back partner James Tarkowski, and likely replacement Kevin Long has experience of playing alongside Tarkowski and in the tactical template provided by Sean Dyche.

Coventry v QPR | Friday 18th September 2020, 2:45

Coventry get their first taste of ‘home’ football back as a Championship club when QPR are the visitors to their temporary St Andrew's home on Friday night.

The Sky Blues are looking to bounce back following a midweek EFL Cup setback to Gillingham, albeit on penalties and after making several changes. QPR got their league campaign up-and-running with a solid home success over Nottingham Forest, and now go on the road looking to back that up.

It is difficult to make too much of a read on any team after just one solitary league match, but you suspect both are relatively happy as things stand. Sure, Coventry lost to Bristol City last weekend, but it was a close match and could have gone either way. They still give off the impression as being a team that should settle at this level rather nicely, but they were still one of favourites for relegation in pre-season, along with the likes of QPR.

Followers of the Hoops therefore will be more than pleased to see their side sitting in second position, even at this very early stage. However, the most devoted of QPR supporter will no doubt remember what happened last season as after 13 matches last season they were sitting in 5th. Things went south pretty sharply after that, with Mark Warburton’s side slipping into the bottom half after 18 games and would never return to the top-12.

As mentioned, it is tough to make a read on the two teams after just one league game, but we’ll try. Only Norwich and Brentford managed more shots on goal than Coventry did, and considering they played away from home at Ashton Gate that deserves a pat on the back in one sense, although Mark Robins of course wouldn’t appreciated another goal to earn at least a draw.

However, only four of their 16 shots were on target, so end product is perhaps something to work on, but adding the likes of Tyler Walker may help with that in the final third eventually. Robins’ side were also ranked fifth in relation to final third entries, but only two teams managed more actually penalty box entries in comparison to QPR. Therefore, this suggests we can anticipate quite an open and end-to-end contest on Friday. It is certainly a match both will play to win.

I’ve always fancied QPR playing at Loftus Road, although that is generally with a crowd behind them. I’m yet to be convinced about them playing away, and they now really need to show they’ve got that nasty side to them which can dig out a result in a tough away match such as this.

However, the facts and figures from last season don’t necessarily back that up completely. They only earned six more points at home compared to away last season. Of their seven away wins, five of them came to clubs below them in the table and they generally struggled against the top sides away from Loftus Road.

Rangers acted smartly in the transfer window to add Lyndon Dykes, Tom Carroll, Rob Dickie and George Thomas, but again I just wonder if consistency could again be their issue this season. For as good as they looked against Nottingham Forest, can they produce that more often than not? That’s certainly the challenge for them.

Coventry are favourites for this game, and that’s understandable considering they’re the ‘home’ team. They need to prove their worth in the final third in relation to taking their chances based on their opening weekend form, and also bear in mind they earned promotion last season despite scoring only an average of 1.41 goals per game. Meaning the likes of Accrington (17th), Burton (12th), Doncaster (9th) and all bar one of the teams positioned 2nd to 8th found the back of the net more.

On the flip side, they had the best defence, and 14 of their 18 overall wins came by a one-goal margin. They’ll face a test from this QPR side though that will come and have a go, and I just fancy the prospect of this being quite open.

With that being the case, I’ll going to throw a tentative play on Over 2.5 Goals at 6/5 (Sky Bet). I don’t like backing under whenever QPR are involved, and whilst they kept a fairly rare clean sheet last time out, I can’t go overboard on one match.

Coventry will be eager to get their first points on the board, and in front of the TV camera’s they’ll be keen to prove why they won League One and earned many plaudits in the process. They too have recruited smartly, but they’ve also retained a big bulk of what made them so good last season.

I expect chances at either end, and hopefully an early goal makes this one to remember. Coventry had the best League One first half record last season, and QPR actually had the worst first half away record in the Championship

Everton were one of the big stories from Week 1, putting together a terrific effort on the road against Tottenham to earn their first away win against a “Big Six” club since 2013.

The result was certainly positive, but the most important takeaway from that match was that Everton’s three new signings, James Rodriguez, Allan and Abdoulaye Doucouré, fit into the side seamlessly. The Toffees’ midfield was a huge weakness in 2019-20. If that’s sorted, they could have a chance to crash the top-four party this season.

Was Everton’s Week 1 Performance Legit?
The expected goals in the match were tight but showed that underdogs Everton were a step better than Tottenham. The Toffees won the expected goals battle, 1.27 to 0.82, per Understat. Spurs did force a couple of big saves out of Jordan Pickford, but overall the defensive effort from Everton was encouraging, since you’d expect them to have more goals to work with thanks to their new midfield.

You never want to overreact to a one-game sample size in betting, but I don’t think it would be jerking the knee to say that this Everton side should be considered a very different team from the one that finished out 2019-20 with a pedestrian 3-3-3 run after the hiatus.

Not only are James, Allan and Doucouré fabulous players, but they make everyone on this roster better. Lucas Digne has already developed into one of the most dynamic left-backs in the league. Andre Gomes can be brilliant on his day, and the strike force of Richarlison and Dominic Calvert-Lewin posted good results despite getting little help in 2019-20. The burden on those four players has been significantly lifted, and Everton could stand to gain from that immensely.

As I remarked above, overreacting to one game is not a good habit to develop. That said, we had a pretty good idea of what kind of team West Brom was before Week 1; and their performance — a 0-3 welcome-back-to-the-big-leagues loss to Leicester City, further proved what bookmakers suspected when they hung the Baggies out as one of the co-favorites to be relegated before the season.

Leicester created 2.96 expected goals while only allowing 0.36 in their win over West Brom, and I’m expecting a similar game flow at Goodison Park on Saturday.

I’d expect West Brom to do their best to muddy-up this game out of a 5-4-1 formation and hope to hit Everton on the counter. A low-event match suits the Baggies, but the Toffees have enough creators that they should be able to break through Slaven Bilic’s side a few times. The same can’t be said of West Brom, who don’t have enough play-makers or finishers to contend if Everton are on song.

There’s certainly a risk of reading too much into Everton’s performance against Spurs, but I think their opponent in this match mitigates some of my worries about buying high on the Toffees. I think this is a potential blow-out; and thus, I will go hunting for a price on Everton rather than laying the -195 on them simply to win.

Dortmund is due for some negative regression going into the 2020-21 campaign. Last season, they had the biggest discrepancy between actual goals scored and expected goals scored in the Bundesliga (84 actual vs. 64.26 expected). They did finish second in the league, but based on expected points, they should have finished in fourth place.

Gladbach was one of the best offensive teams in Bundesliga last year. Their 73.58 xG ranked third in the league and was 7.58 less than their actual total of 66 goals, so their due for a little bit of positive regression offensively going into this season. Die Folhen brings back their entire starting XI, so they should be able to give Dortmund all they can handle.

Dortmund swept Gladbach last year but was outplayed in both matches. Gladbach won the expected goals battle by a combined 5.35 to 2.66, so it’s hard to imagine Dortmund will be able to get lucky for a third time in a row.

Dortmund is overvalued at home and Gladbach is absolutely capable of not only getting a result, but winning outright at Signal Iduna Park.

Do you remember what RB Leipzig did to Mainz last season? If not, let me refresh your memory. RB Leipzig humiliated Mainz by combined score of 13-0 in two matches. Even though RB Leipzig has lost Timo Werner to Chelsea, they are still one of the best teams in the Bundesliga. They were able to hold on to the rest of their starting XI despite a lot of interest from other clubs.

Timo Werner was undoubtedly the heart and soul of their attack, but the reason Leipzig finished third last year was because of their defense. They allowed only 1.11 xG per match, which ranked second in the league behind Bayern Munich. Leipzig also still has plenty of fire power up front with Yussuf Poulsen and Christopher Nkuku, who combined to average 0.88 xG per 90 minutes last year, so they shouldn’t see a steep drop off offensively.

Mainz barely survived relegation in 2019 and project to be in the fight again this year. No significant reinforcements were brought in during the offseason, so its hard to imagine they’ll improve their -16.71 xGD from last season.

Manchester United finally get their Premier League campaign up and running when they welcome Crystal Palace to Old Trafford on Saturday. The visitors opened up their season last week on a winning note when they edged Southampton 1-0, however Roy Hodgson will need a better performance from his team if they are going to get something out of the game as United will be a different proposition on the weekend.

Manchester United have had to wait a week more than most to get their campaign up and running, though they’ve got the opportunity to do so when they welcome Crystal Palace to the Theatre of Dreams this weekend.

This fixture ended very well for Palace last year, as they became the first visiting team to score a stoppage time winner at Old Trafford in the Premier League era courtesy of Patrick van Aarnholt’s 93rd minute goal sealing a 2-1 victory.

The visitors started the season strongly with a 1-0 win at home to Southampton as Wilfried Zaha’s 13th minute strike was enough for the three points. They actually have two more games under the belt this season than their hosts having also faced Bournemouth in the League Cup on Tuesday night, and played out an extraordinary 11-10 defeat on penalties after a goalless draw.

What’s noticeable is the continuation of Palace’s trend of low scoring affairs, with just the one strike from those two matches. Last season on Sheffield United (2.05) had less goals per game than the Eagles (2.13), though against the bigger sides that trend tends to be bucked.

Under Roy Hodgeson, they’ve gone W4-D5-L26 against top six finishers, with only 13 of those 35 games seeing less than three strikes in total so we’re not convinced by the unders market on this one.

Man United haven’t added to their squad as much as they would have liked, though the introduction of Donny van der Beek undoubtedly improves what is an already potent attacking force, with Anthony Martial, Marcus Rashford, Mason Greenwood and Bruno Fernandes all carrying a significant goal scoring threat, netting a whopping 72 goals for the Red Devils between them last season.

United have won each of their last five opening fixtures, scoring 14 times across these and netting three or more in over half. That will fill manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer with confidence heading into this, and we can’t see anything other than a home win here though at such as short price, it’s another market that we’d like to couple the win with.

Since Roy Hodgson took the reigns at Selhurst Park, only Brighton and Newcastle have scored fewer Premier League goals from sides that have remained in the top flight over that period, and up against the better sides Palace’s woe in front of goal only gets deeper.

Last season, they only managed to find the net in four of their 11 matches against the top six since they last played here, two of which came against an out of sorts Spurs side and a leaky Chelsea defence, so the win to nil for the hosts looks a tantalising proposition.

Leeds vs Fulham | Saturday 19th September 2020, 15:00 | BT Sport
Newly-promoted sides Leeds and Fulham gave very different accounts of themselves in their return to the top-flight last weekend despite both losing. Leeds narrowly missed out to the champions Liverpool in a seven-goal thriller whilst Fulham put in a lacklustre performance and came out 3-0 losers to Arsenal.

Leeds are a team everyone is keeping an eye out for with so much buzz and excitement around them – there’s plenty of intrigue as to how they will get on this season under Marcelo Bielsa. The Whites are firm favourites in this tie, and it comes as no surprise with Yorkshire outfit looking a much stronger unit both last season and this.

One clear difference between the teams is that Bielsa knows clearly who his best players are what his strongest side is. Scott Parker is quite the opposite and we could see a few changes from Fulham in comparison to their starting XI from last weekend.

We could see Fulham changes in goal, right-back, in midfield, out wide and up front with Aleksandar Mitrovic, Alphonese Areola, Kenny Tete, Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa, Mario Lemina and Anthony Knockaert all pushing for starts after missing out versus Arsenal.

One player that stood out for Leeds last week was Jack Harrison. The Man City loanee scored an eye-catching goal that capped off an energetic performance from the 23-year-old. That performance against the champions will give him confidence that he belongs at the top level of English football.

Everton have W12-D8-L4 in the league since March 2019 - that includes just 1 defeat in 12 since December, despite having welcomed Chelsea, Arsenal, Man Utd, Liverpool and Leicester.

Southampton vs Tottenham | Sunday 20th September 2020, 7:00

Southampton were many a fine pundits’ dark horses this season so there was general disappointment in the opening day defeat at Selhurst Park as Wilfried Zaha’s 50th goal in league football secured three points for the Eagles.

Ralph Hasenhuttl orchestrated a fantastic end to last season, unbeaten in their final seven games, in a run which included both Manchester clubs, so will be looking to bounce back from that unexpected defeat in the first game of this new campaign.

The Saints collected 60% of their points on the road last season, so a better return at home will definitely be required if they are to improve on last season’s 11th place finish and challenge those European places. Meanwhile, a midweek exit, despite fielding a full-strength side, from the Carabao Cup to Brentford did little to calm the nerves of the St Mary’s faithful.

There are definite parallels with this weekend’s opponents Spurs, who also ended the 2019/20 season well under the steadying influence of Jose Mourinho, finishing sixth to ensure Europa League football, with the first game of that campaign being just three days prior to this clash.

The legendary Portuguese manager will also be looking for a reaction from his team after their own 1-0 loss in their opening Premier League fixture at home to Everton – a performance he branded “lazy” accusing his side of not pressing and allowing their opponents to build from the back as they wished, in turn surrendering a proud 19 season undefeated record as a manager on the opening day of a league season.

Things could get interesting Sunday when Newcastle United hosts Brighton & Hove Albion at St. James’ Park in Premier League action.

Newcastle comes into the contest fresh off a season-opening 2-0 victory against West Ham United.

Unfortunately for Brighton, it wasn’t as fortunate in its debut. The Seagulls entertained a Chelsea club primed for a big season on the European scene but suffered a 3-1 loss on the southern coast at Amex Stadium.

Both sides will look to scoop all three points with a positive result that’s beyond important to each club despite this being such an early point in the season.

Newcastle
The Magpies looked great to kick off things off, riding second-half goals from Callum Wilson and Jeff Hendricks to secure a 2-0 road win.

Gaffer Steve Bruce had his troops raring to go on their debut, and grabbing a victory at home would huge against a Brighton side that has already shown it’s going to have a rough time scoring goals.

The Magpies could be one of those sneaky clubs and make some noise in northern England. It’s been a while since Newcastle has been in the mix of things late in the fixtures, but that could be a different story this season.

There’s not much data and statistical information this early in the season, but the Magpies sit on 1.2 expected goals and 1.1 expected goals against for a +0.1 expected goals differential. That equals a +0.18 xGDiff for 90 minutes.

Brighton
If you didn’t see the Seagulls’ match against Chelsea, it would have you thinking it was ugly, to say the least. However, the scoreline didn’t truly depict Brighton’s performance against a club that’s going to contend for league and European hardware.

The Seagulls actually had a very good run of play throughout the match and led the Blues in some key statistical areas.

Brighton outshot Chelsea, 13-10, in the opener and held an edge in possession. It also had one more corner kick. The obvious problem came in Chelsea’s defensive third, where the host failed to capitalize on all but one of its chances.

Much like Newcastle, there is minimal data on Brighton when it comes to these same statistical categories. However, the numbers are eerily similar to that of its foe. The Seagulls have 1.3 expected goals and 1.2 expected goals against, resulting in a +0.1 xGDiff and +0.17 xGDiff/90 minutes.

Newcastle vs Brighton | Sunday 20th September 2020, 9am

Steve Bruce meets Graham Potter with Newcastle hosting Brighton on Sunday afternoon, a side the Magpies have not beaten at St. James’ Park since they were promoted automatically together from the Championship in 2016/17. The last six encounters between the two have all seen Under 2.5 goals, so do not expect a thriller.

The duo were on the end of positive and negative two-goal deficits on gameweek one with the Seagulls coming out on the wrong end despite creating the better chances against Chelsea. A frustrating theme for a Brighton fan in the Potter era has been how often they relinquish opportunities to score, they must be more ruthless if they are to realise their potential.

Last time out
Newcastle stole the plaudits beating West Ham 2-0. Callum Wilson opened his account for the club on his debut and Bruce will be hoping he has bought guaranteed goals with the striker having already scored 42 goals in the division for Bournemouth.

Jeff Hendrick, who signed on a free from Burnley, also bagged a debut goal, rifling in from outside the box to cap off a very successful evening in the capital.

Brighton definitely do not recruit Premier League proven players, looking into the data and analytics to pinpoint targets that can step up to their challenge, like Belgian winger Leandro Trossard who scored the equaliser in their last outing.

Potter’s men won the shot count and Expected Goals (xG) battle against Chelsea but were unable to penetrate the backline, with their final ball and some rookie defending letting them down. If they can take the positives from it and prepare well for this match, I make them favourites.

The betting angles
The last three identical meetings brought Under 1.5 Goals and that looks on the cards again. With Brighton’s lack of cutting edge and the Magpies defensive set-up under Bruce, a double of Under 2.5 Goals and Under 1.5 First-Half Goals is a recommended punt at 27/25 with Betway, and the other angle is getting onside with Brighton.

The Seasiders ended up 14th in the xG table for last season compared to rock bottom for Newcastle, proving how often they are stronger in chance creation and allowing fewer opportunities against them.

Nineteen-year-old left wing back Tariq Lamptey was outstanding against Chelsea and if he can provide such an outlet coming up against attacking left back Jamal Lewis, the Seagulls should produce some end product.

Brighton have won two and drawn four in being unbeaten versus Newcastle since promotion to the English top-flight, expect them to extend that run. The hosts are evens (888) in the Draw No Bet market.

Liverpool’s thrilling 4-3 win was some way to begin the defence of their Premier League title, not to mention some way for Leeds to announce themselves back in the top-flight. Jurgen Klopp will be relieved to have come away with the three points, however I am sure he will be concerned with the fact that his defence conceded the three goals. Chelsea themselves got off to a winning start with a 3-1 win over Brighton, however Frank Lampard will be expecting a better performance when the champions come to Stamford Bridge on Sunday.

Chelsea appear the most likely challengers to Liverpool and Man City’s stranglehold and have a chance to make an early statement here. The Reds looked vulnerable on the opening day against a thrilling Leeds side and although most teams won’t be willing to risk going to-to-toe with Jurgen Klopp’s men, the Blues have the attacking talent to take the game to their visitors.

There ought to be goals in this one given the two side’s strengths and in fact, both teams have now scored in 13 of 18 head to heads in the league since 2011/12, including eight of nine at Stamford Bridge. Liverpool’s front three need no introduction, but Chelsea have kicked on from last term in this department.

Frank Lampard will hope for more in the coming months from Kai Havertz following a fairly subdued debut, though nonetheless he will have been pleased by the young German’s work rate. Meanwhile, Timo Werner in particular impressed despite not finding the net, still winning a penalty, and looks tailor made for the Premier League.

Despite looking better on the front foot, Chelsea held the worst defensive record amongst the top half in the table last term and conceded at least 18 more than each of Liverpool and the Manchester duo.

It’s clear why Lampard has moved to bring in new faces, with defenders Ben Chillwell and Thiago Silva also arriving this summer and Rennes keeper Edouard Mendy apparently edging closer as well.

The Blues’ 3-1 win over Brighton saw the much-maligned Kepa Arrizabalaga heavily criticized after being beaten from distance yet again, with the Spaniard having now conceded more goals from outside the box (19) than any other keeper since his arrival in 2018.

He’s now let in nine of the past 13 shots on target that he’s faced, while the Seagulls should really have had another goal when Lewis Dunk inexplicably headed wide at the far post.

Timo Werner took a slight knock against Brighton but there appears no suggestion he’ll be unavailable here. However, Chillwell and Silva may or not feature yet, though even if they do there won’t have been a lot of time for Lampard to drill his new-look backline together.

The defensively suspect Marcos Alonso was given a torrid time by Brighton full-back Tariq Lamptey, and should he fill in at left-back again, expect Mo Salah to be licking his lips at the prospect of taking advantage following his opening day hat-trick.

Liverpool have only lost one of 11 league meetings with Chelsea since 2015 (W5-D5-L1) as they’ve won each of the past three.

However, they did face the Blues twice in cup competitions, going all the way to penalties in the UEFA Super Cup and going down 2-0 here at the Bridge in the FA Cup. However, it’s worth noting that in the latter result, the likes of Adrian, Neco Williams, Adam Lallana, Curtis Jones, Takumi Minamino and Divock Origi all started that day.

Although Liverpool haven’t been at their best on the road in recent months, this coincided with the Premier League title effectively being wrapped up and no doubt they’ll revert to previous performance levels.

BetShare
PremierLeague

Handicap
CHE (+0.25) 45%
LIV (-0.25) 55%

1X2
Chelsea 25%
Liverpool 45%
Draw 35%

Tot (3)
Ov 65%
Un 35%

Chelsea XI: Kepa, James, Zouma, Christensen, Alonso, Jorginho, Kante, Kovacic, Mount, Havertz, Werner.

Liverpool XI: Alisson, Alexander-Arnold, Van Dijk, Fabinho, Robertson, Henderson, Keita, Wijnaldum, Mane, Firmino, Salah.

Wolves vs Manchester City | Monday 21st September 2020, 1:15

Manchester City travel to Wolves in the first instalment of their 2020/21 season whilst also looking to avenge the two defeats that their opponents inflicted on them last season.

Although Nuno Espirito Santo’s men upset the odds early on in the campaign when recording a 2-0 win at the Etihad Stadium, the result at Molineux several months later perhaps wasn’t that unexpected. City struggled to deal with the physicality that Wolves had to offer on both occasions and conceded twice in quick succession in each fixture, as they did fairy routinely when conceding last season to their ultimate title demise.

It’s been a summer of new arrivals for both these clubs but especially Wolves.

Nelson Semedo looks set to sign from Barcelona to fill the void left at right wing-back by Matt Doherty’s departure and he is joined by Fabio Silva, the wonderkid striker signed from Porto and the experienced Marcal who gives more depth on the left side of the pitch. Semedo’s signing will allow Adama Traore to play further forward which will make many opposition teams wince at the prospect.

Diogo Jota leaving for Liverpool is a sign of the progress that Wolves have made as a club since the depths of League One but it’s a blow nonetheless and Santo will be hoping that Wolves’ other forward players can combine just as well with the lethal Raul Jiminez as Jota has over the past couple of seasons.

Manchester City’s transfer business has mainly focused on defensive additions, hardly a surprise given how easy they were to score against last season but Nathan Ake may take time to take the step up so, as per usual, much relies on the fitness of Aymeric Laporte for the ability of the team to keep clean sheets.

I think this could be a tight affair with Wolves having the advantage of already playing their league opener as well as a midweek cup game (albeit with plenty of changes), so a slow burner could be on the cards. The second half to be the highest scoring here was an angle I was looking at given those thoughts and that Wolves turned on the gas so regularly after the break last season, but the odds – less than even money in some places – are about right in my view.