The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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lippsman
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 10835
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6-12-19 Very last Hockey thread and special message
I have enjoyed my many years posting pucks here. It's such a rush to introduce people to it and also making some serious coin !!!
It's just very sad what has happened to the board, there used to be so much action, pages and pages of post every day. But things change. For those that don't know I post this very same thread every day at Covers. A great deal of puck talk over there. So if you need your pucks fix you can still get it. Would love to see all of you keep posting picks there and even here for that matter
Thanks MSU, Brutus, eels, One Tough Maze, Breadman, M1, geg1951, fulkgl, usc1990, puckslug, HoustonFan, Cubano and many others.
A special shoutout to Shadow9 and Curdawg, both very much missed
Well this is it, what we all have been waiting for. The most special time in sports, a game 7 Finals !!!
First of all, thanks to everyone that has posted in the thread this year and a very special thanks to all that have been posting in here all year !!!!
Now what you have been waiting for. What does history say about a game 7 ? You can imagine that the home team does very well in this situation ? Right ??
Well..........considering the B's are a huge -170 at home the odds makers are just yelling at you who to take. But don't forget that the odds makers are trying to make a line that will split the money and they know a home team in game 7 will just get pounded with money.
Considering just the Finals games the home team (Boston) is hitting at a huge 73.3% But note that this is just 15 games, but still you get a good idea here. If you take all rounds it goes down to 58.1%.
With the line at -170 the B's would have to hit at a 62.9% rate to break even, which more than takes care of the Finals win rate. If you go by all rounds the Blues would be the play. But here I would put all the stock in the Finals games only.
Take the B's and play the -1 or -1.5. I prefer the -1 and if you don't know how to calculate it, well here you go
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1TMmMVLg93PuS_S8BzcfKo4cjBjCG1wKs/view?usp=sharing
Now lets talk that total, it's been bumped up to 5.5 tonight. This game will be played very tightly. Only way that total goes over is a team is down 2 with 5 minutes left. Personally I would play the under, but I think taking the B's reduced juice is the safer play
ONE TOUGH MAZE 2-1 +2.73 (31-21 +16.10)
eels 1-0 +1.70 (3-1 +3.45)
Brutus5775 1-0 +1.00
Lippsman 1-00 +1.00
Did not make pick
Breadman 0-2 -2.20 (33-22 +12.32)
M-1 1-0 +1.20 (3-1 +2.28)
St.Louis at Boston 8:00 NBC
Thanks again everyone and take care !!!
And if you want a little fun, here is the very first post of mine here from 2005 !!!!
[url]forums.statfox.com/forum/showthread.php?threadid=34011&highlight=lippsman[\url]
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06-12-19 03:17 PM |
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