The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Newbie Soccer Players
if you've ever thought about it, here's a nice read
I know nothing about soccer.
That hasn’t stopped me from betting on every World Cup match. It has gone about as well you might expect. Through Friday, June 22, I have compiled a 8-18 record.
But wait, there’s a twist. I’m +8.57 units despite being ten games under .500. What kind of sorcery is this?
If you haven’t noticed, the dogs have been barking in Russia.
Mexico (+675) over Germany, I had it.
Japan (+470) to win vs. Colombia, you bet.
I was also among the 20% of bettors who thought Croatia (+320) could topple Messi and Argentina. A $100 bettor tailing my picks would be up $857 for a 33.0% return on investment.
So, what’s my secret? Math. To make my selections I’ve created a consensus World Cup projection based on predictions from ThePowerRank and FiveThirtyEight. If one model is good, two is better.
After determining each team’s chance to win, and the likelihood of a draw, I calculate the implied probability for each event based on the betting odds. If the consensus projection is greater than the implied probability, I place a bet.
See, math and betting can be fun! Now the part you’ve been waiting for … here are the plays I’ve made for Saturday using the above method.
Saturday Selections
Belgium vs. Tunisia
8 a.m. ET
Nearly 80% of moneyline tickets are on Belgium, but Tunisia has moved from +1327 to +931. The implied probability of a Tunisia win is 9.7%. The models give the underdog a 12.1% chance of pulling the upset.
Play: Tunisia +931
Mexico vs. Korea
11 a.m. ET
Mexico shocked Germany in the opener. Is this a letdown spot for El Tri? Korea (+528) has a 19.6% chance of knocking off Mexico according to the consensus projections.
Play: Korea +528
Germany vs. Sweden
2 p.m. ET
Germany (-200) is the biggest favorite on Saturday. Despite a disappointing result in the team’s first game, almost 70% of bettors are backing Die Mannschaft. There is only a 19.1% chance that Sweden drops Germany, but at +630 (13.7% implied probability) there is value betting the underdog.
Play: Sweden +630
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06-23-18 12:14 AM |
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cbones
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Nov 2007
Posts: 946
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Nice info. Thank you for posting.
I bit on that Korea play.
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06-23-18 04:24 AM |
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