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IWS
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Service Plays 9-2-09
Randall the Handle
CINCINNATI -1½ +1.70 over Pittsburgh
The Reds have momentum for the first time in awhile and when you’re winning, coming to the park is fun. Cinci has won three in a row, all over the Pirates and they’ve also won eight of its last 10 and that includes a three game sweep in Milwaukee in which they scored 20 runs. Suddenly, the offense is clicking, as they hung an 11 on the Bucs yesterday and have scored 22 runs in the first three games of this series. Homer Bailey is coming off back-to-back great outings and perhaps this guy is finally finding his groove. Bailey threw an eight-inning shutout against the Dodgers in his latest and prior to that, in Pittsburgh, he threw a seven-inning, four-hit gem. Reports are his fastball is hitting 98 MPH with regularity and for the first time since he was a #1 draft pick his confidence is soaring. The Reds will see 10-game winner Zach Duke, one of the worst 10-game winners in major league history. Duke surrendered 11 hits and seven runs in three innings in his last start and he’s throwing for a team that has lost 44 of its last 57 road games. Over his last 17 innings, covering three starts, he has five k’s and an ERA of 6.23. The Reds are feeling it, the Pirates are a complete disaster and with a take-back of +1.70 laying the extra half run the Reds certainly have to be considered a decent play. Play Cincinnati -1½ +1.70 (Risking 2 units).
MINNESOTA +1.40 over Chicago
If the South Siders were going to win a game in this series it certainly looked like yesterday was going to be the day. John Danks vs Jeff Manship was the match-up and on paper it sure looked like the South Side had a significant edge. However, this team continued its downward spiral, pretty much playing themselves out of contention with another loss. Ever since they picked up Alex Rios this team has done a complete 180. They’ve lost 20 of its last 26 road games and overall they’ve lost nine of 10. They’ve struggled at this venue for years and they’ll go into this game with a huge psychological disadvantage. Folks, the South Side is reeling and the fact that they appear to have an edge on the mound today means jack. If the better pitcher won each time we’d all be rich but alas, that is not the case. The Twins smell a kill here and there’s likely not a thing the White Sox can do about it, as they’ve thrown in the proverbial towel. Play: Minnesota +1.40 (Risking 2 units).
Atlanta -1½ +1.03 over FLORIDA
Speaking of teams with a psychological advantage, one needs not look much further than the Braves over the Fish. This was a huge series for both teams that could ultimately decide the wildcard winner. The Braves took the first two games of this series having beaten Josh Johnson and following that up with Tim Hudson pitching the Braves to victory in his first start in 13 months. The Braves will now go for the sweep in good shape with a serious advantage on the mound. Rick Vanderhurk has lasted a combined 14 innings over his last three starts and over that stretch his ERA was 7.98. In 31 frames this season he has allowed an alarming nine bombs. He’s being thrown into a very tough situation with a lot of pressure on him and it’s unlikely he’ll respond well. Javier Vazquez throws nothing but strikes and is very accustomed to pressure situations. He’s walked three batters and struck out 21 over his last 20 innings. On the year he’s walked 35 batters and has 192 K’s in 176 frames. Vazquez has won four straight on the road and overall he’s 7-2 with a 2.96 ERA in 12 road starts. Play: Atlanta -1½ +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
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09-02-09 05:02 PM |
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IWS
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Dave Malinsky
6* Top of the Ticket - Day
MINNESOTA TWINS (Duensing)+135 over Chicago White Sox (Buehrle)
6* #918 MINNESOTA over CHICAGO WHIE SOX
Last night we pointed out the absurdity of the White Sox being favored on this field, and now we have more of the same. A slow team that is poor defensively (only the Nationals have given up more runs directly via errors) is now on a 2-16 run in the Metrodome as they head to their final game ever here, which brings little confidence to the table, and at 1-8 overall on this road trip, while also having lost Jim Thome and seeing their playoff hopes fade to black, there is little reason to fear a high energy level for this early start. So once again the question becomes whether or not the starting pitcher accounts or the line. Again it does not, and this time we raise the rating to take advantage of the extreme value. Mark Buehrle is a fine craftsman, but he pitches to contact. Put a pitcher that does that on a fast surface with a weak defense behind him and what do you have? Trouble. The past two seasons he has worked to an 0-4/8.31 tune from this mound, and that includes a pair of recent July starts that the Twins won by a combined eight runs. Hence the added problem – a finesse pitcher tends to be easier to read the more the opposition sees him, and this will be the fifth look for Minnesota this season, and 7th since the All Start break LY. Making this equation even more interesting is that while the Mauer/Morneau heart of the Twin lineup can match up with just about anyone, some of the supporting cast have particularly had their way with Buehrle – Delmon Young is at 8-20 lifetime with two home runs; Denard Spann 7-17 with two home runs; and Carlos Gomez 8-20, also with two homers. At 0-4/5.77 since throwing that no-hitter vs. Tampa Bay back in July, Buehrle hardly brings enough to take the limited package behind him to this level of favoritism. Brian Duensing is not going to wow anyone with this stuff, but he is a classic example of a pitcher being brought along the proper way – having had 57 starts at the AAA level the past three seasons, he know how to pitch, and get the most out of what he has. He has worked to a 2-0/2.65 as a starter through three opportunities, only walking three batters in those 17 frames and producing a positive ratio of ground ball outs each time, and these days you do not have to do much more than throw strikes to get past a weak Chicago lineup, particularly as we update the slumps of key right-handers Jermaine Dye (17-102 over his last 27 games, with only three of the hits going for extra bases), and Alex Rios (10-60 in a White Sox uniform, with 16 strikeouts). And Duensing knows just what his job is here – make a couple of good passes through the lineup, and then turn things over to a strong bullpen, one that had a rare hiccup from Matt Guerrier last night, but still managed to get the win without using Joe Nathan. The latter is fresh to close this one out, which is among the better comforts in the Majors to have.
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09-02-09 05:59 PM |
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IWS
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Posts: 742
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KELSO's HIGHROLLER MLB PICK for TODAY
Highrollers Baseball
Wednesday, September 02, 2009
15 UnitsBraves {J.Vazquez} (-150) over Marlins {R.VandenHurk}
7:10 PM -- Dolphin Stadium
Atlanta Braves (70-62) -150 over FLORIDA MARLINS (68-64) Pitching for Atlanta: RH Javier Vazquez (11-9, 3.02) Pitching for Florida: RH Rick VandenHurk (2-2, 5.12) Braves Trend Profile: Last 10: 6-4, Streak: Won 2, Road: 35-32, Against RHP: 42-44. Marlins Trend Profile: Last 10: 3-7, Streak: Lost 2, Home: 37-33, Against RHP: 46-43. Starting Time: 7:10 TV: Sports South, Fox Sports Florida
Partly cloudy with a 40-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing out to center field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 80.
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09-02-09 07:00 PM |
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IWS
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Posts: 742
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Craig Davis
Wednesday's Lineup
100 DIME ---- WHITE SOX (With Buehrle and Duensing as listed pitchers)
Here it is... I'm stepping up today to put an end to this bullcrap. I don't take kindly to losing streaks and neither do the Chicago White Sox. Do you think Ozzie Guillen is going to take this sitting down? Not a chance. This is not a reach, this is not a ploy, this is a cold-blooded absolute winner with the Chicago White Sox in this afternoon affair. I realize that every single sign points to the Twins pulling off the sweep. I've heard it all, trust me. But I'm telling you right now there's no chance in heck Chicago lays down like they did the first two games of this series. Folks, Minnesota's pitching is simply not as good as they've shown lately and I think we're getting a very fair price against a young pitcher who has just three starts to his resume. This is just too good to pass up.
I am doing something today I have never done, but I feel that strongly about it. I have never (till this day) backed a team three nights in a row, but there's always an exception to everything if you absolutely know you're on the right side. If I wasn't on the right side, you tell me why Vegas has Chicago listed as a -130 favorite?? They clearly know Mark Buehrle is the better of the two arms today despite the losses in the first two games. Shoot, the Twins have taken the first two games of this series against Gavin Floyd and John Danks, they've won six straight home games in this series and 7 of 8 there this year vs. Chicago, and they've won 9 of their last 11 games overall. Meanwhile, the White Sox are in a tailspin, having dropped 8 of their last ten and are completely in danger of falling completely out of contention in the AL Central. Let's just put it this way.... if they lose today, they are done, finished, history. Today's game is absolutely pivotal in surviving this losing streak and getting back to a "fighting chance" to keep pace with Detroit and Minnesota. In their defense, the White Sox are finishing a brutal road trip that included games in New York and Boston... the two best teams in the American League in my opinion. Today they put it all together and leave Minnesota for the final time in 2009 with a win under their belt.
Let's not forget it wasn't too long ago that Mark Buehrle was tossing a no-hitter against the Tampa Bay Rays... a 9-inning, 5-0 win. What he (or anyone else for that matter) didn't know was that would be his last win of the 2009 season (at least before today). At that point in the season, Buehrle was 11-3 with a 3.28 ERA and he was being considered in the "AL Cy Young Award" talk. Now he's 11-7 with a 3.89 ERA and some have said he's lost confidence. I don't believe that for a minute. In my opinion, he's gotten too confident at home since that no-hitter and has actually pitched much better on the road. In fact, his last two road starts have seen him allow just two earned runs (vs. the Yankees, mind you) in 14 innings of work but he wasn't able to get a decision in either of those games. And if you're worried about how he pitched in August carrying over to September, don't be. August has been his kryptonite, with a career 4.26 ERA (his worst career month). September, on the other hand, has been much better for Buehrle... and only May and June have been better to him over his career.
The Twins, as previously mentioned, will send Brian Duensing to the hill in an attempt to earn the sweep of the series. Unfortuantely for him, the White Sox bats have been extremely quiet in this series, but all that's about to change this afternoon as I see Chicago getting to Duensing early and often. Look, I appreciate what he's done in his last two starts, but let's not forget something... he's a long reliever who is just now figuring out how to be a starter. He's raw, inexperienced, and facing a team that's really pissed off. On another note --- the White Sox have hit an AL-high .285 vs. lefties on the season and this will be the first time in this series the White Sox will have seen a lefty. Obviously it doesn't bode well for the Twins or the rookie pitcher, does it?
Back to Buehrle, he's seen the Twins four times this season and after dominating them in two separate appearances in April and May, he was roughed up pretty bad in a July start and then faced them again later in July, pitching 6 shutout innings before giving up four earned runs in the 7th. Consider this the rubber game for Buehrle, and my money would be on him every time. For his career, Buehrle has faced the Twins 39 times, winning 23 times while dropping 15. It's hardly a dominating record, but it's good enough for me and I fully expect it to improve to 24-15 after this afternoon. The White Sox are 11-2 in Buehrle's last 13 starts as a road favorite, 7-1 in his last 8 starts as a road favorite of between -110 and -150 and 7-3 in his last 10 starts following a Chicago loss. Meanwhile, the Twins are 1-5 in their last six games as a home dog, 1-5 in their last 6 vs. a lefty, and 4-9 in their last 13 during game 3 of a series. I don't tell you to play these games if I don't believe in them, and trust me, I believe in this one. Top play of the day on the Chicago White Sox over Minnesota.
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09-02-09 07:03 PM |
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IWS
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Registered: Nov 2006
Posts: 742
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Ferringo
1-Unit Play. Take #927 N.Y. Yankees (-1.5, -135) over Baltimore (7 p.m., Wednesday, Sept. 2)
1-Unit Play. Take #914 Colorado (-1.5, -130) over N.Y. Mets (8:40 p.m., Wednesday, Sept. 2)
1-Unit Play. Take #924 Detroit (-150) over Cleveland (7 p.m., Wednesday, Sept. 2)
1-Unit Play. Take #912 St. Louis (-1.5, -125) over Milwaukee (8 p.m., Wednesday, Sept. 2)
Today's Totals
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 Cleveland at Detroit (7 p.m., Wednesday, Sept. 2)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.0 Arizona at L.A. Dodgers (10 p.m., Wednesday, Sept. 2)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.5 Atlanta at Florida (7 p.m., Wednesday, Sept. 2)
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.5 N.Y. Yankees at Baltimore (7 p.m., Wednesday, Sept. 2)
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09-02-09 08:47 PM |
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