NCAA Sports MarketWatch Week 10 – Games to Watch

Air Force vs Army (11/1 12P)

Air Force comes into this armed forces match up with a 6-2 record, but they need the win to have a chance at the Commander-In-Chief's Trophy. The Falcons already suffered a loss at the hands of Navy by six, and their other loss came against No. 10 Utah by a touchdown. Air Force has already qualified for a bowl game, and they still have an outside shot an the Mountain West Conference Championship. The Falcons come in with the fourth-ranked rushing offense in the nation, averaging 291 yards per game on the ground with an options attack. They are the 118th-ranked passing attack in the nation. They actually won a game this season without completing a single pass (31-28 over Houston.)

Army started the season 0-4, but they have won three of their last four to give themselves hope for a bowl game. The remaining schedule isn't a Mount Everest of opponents, but there aren't any easy wins either. They open their competition for the Commander-In-Chief's trophy with this game against Air Force; they close the season on December 6th against Navy in Philadelphia. The Black Knights turned their season around with an option attack on offense. Head Coach Stan Brock said sophomore quarterback Chip Bowden “grew up a lot and matured a great deal” with last week's win over Louisiana Tech, and that he even looks more comfortable throwing the ball. The Army defense has also come on strong in the last four games, giving up an average of 15 points per game over that span.

Air Force opened as 9-point favorites at Pinnacle, and they are receiving 73% of the public's spread bets and 81% of parlay bets. Yet the line has moved down to Air Force -8. The is indicating some wiseguy action behind the Black Knights, and there have been multiple Smart Money plays triggered on Army. We like the improving Army team as they can see the possibility of a bowl berth. We'll follow the Smart Money, and take the Black Knights with the points at home.

Army +8

Florida vs Georgia (11/1 3:30P)

Florida is coming off a pair of blowout wins over LSU and Kentucky. The 63-5 victory over the Wildcats was over early thanks to the Gators' special teams, which blocked Kentucky's first two punts to set up easy touchdowns for the offense. Florida has had this week's game circled since last season's defeat at the hands of Georgia. The Bulldogs drew the ire of the Gators last year when the entire team rushed into the end zone after scoring their first touchdown in a 42-30 win. That incident has been on the Gators' minds all year, and they are looking for some revenge this weekend. Tim Tebow continues his assault on record books, and has a chance to break Emmit Smith's school record for touchdowns this week. The Gators rank first in the SEC in scoring defense, allowing only 11.3 points per game.

Georgia earned a big 52-38 win last week over LSU, and they head into this top-10 match up with a three-game win streak after suffering a loss to No. 2 Alabama. The Bulldogs are led by one of the nation's most talented backfields in quarterback Matthew Stafford and tailback Knowshown Moreno. Both had big games in last year's victory over the Gators. Stafford was 11-of-18 for 217 yards, a career-high three TDs and one interception, and Moreno rushed for 188 yards and three touchdowns. After a career-low 34 yards in the loss to Alabama, Moreno has rushed for 436 yards in the last three games. The Bulldogs have a strong run defense, but their pass defense gives up 221 yards per game

It's "The World's Largest Cocktail Party" in Jacksonville, Florida. Georgia is considered the home team, but the crowd should be pretty even. The winner will only need one more win to secure a spot in the SEC Championship game. There's a lot at stake in the game between these border rivals. Florida opened as 6.5 point favorites at Pinnacle and the line has moved back to that spread. The bets were pretty evenly split early in the week, but the Gators are now receiving 61% of spread bets and 66% of parlay bets. That swing in percentage and the line drop could signal some smart money behind the Bulldogs. We'll take the Bulldogs getting points in this bitter rivalry.

Georgia +6.5

Wisconsin vs Michigan State (11/1 12PM)

Wisconsin got its first conference win last week against Illinois, but they also lost All-American tight end Travis Beckum for the season with a broken leg. The Badgers broke a four-game losing streak with the win, and they are starting to get healthy despite the loss of Beckum. Junior tailback P.J. Hill has been cleared to return to full action after seeing limited time last week. They also return two starting linemen who have missed recent games due to injuries. Junior quarterback Dustin Sherer will make his third consecutive start after showing a huge improvement during last week's win.

Michigan State bounced back from getting blown out by Ohio State with a win over in-state rival Michigan last week. That win returned them to the top-25 rankings, and kept them in contention for the Big Ten title. The Spartans utilize a smash-mouth running attack on offense, led by tailback Javon Ringer. Ringer has 1,373 yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground this season, which leads the nation. Michigan State often uses two tight ends and a fullback to get maximum blocking. While the run game is the Spartans' strength on offense, it is also a weakness on defense, as they are allowing 138 yards per game on the ground.

Wisconsin needs two more wins to be eligible for a bowl game, and this would be a good start with only three games afterwards (including a match up with No. 17 Minnesota.) The Spartans can ensure at least a tie for the Big Ten championship if they win out. So this game has big implications for both teams. Michigan State opened as 5.5 point favorites at Pinnacle, and they're receiving 73% of the public spread bets and 82% of parlay bets. The line moved toward Wisconsin during the week, which triggered a number of Smart Money plays on the Badgers, but the line moved back towards Michigan State at -5.5. We're following the Smart Money plays, and taking Wisconsin and the points.

Wisconsin +5.5

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 10.

Games to Watch (11-15-1)
Army +8.
Georgia +6.5
Wisconsin +5.5

NFL WEEK 9
We anticipate that Tampa Bay, Denver, Arizona, Atlanta, and Philly will be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 9 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch (14-9 = 60.9%)

Arizona Cardinals vs St. Louis Rams

The line in this game looks too good to be true. The first-place Arizona Cardinals only have to give a field goal to the lowly Rams? Our readers know that this type of "trap" game has us smelling value on the other side! With the Public overwhelmingly on Arizona, this gives us added "value" on the Rams!

Three out of four bets are landing on Arizona -- so we will "bet against the public" and take St. Louis as a live home dog. Arizona is a first-place team, but is just 4-3 in the relatively weak NFC West Division. We like taking dogs in tough divisional games -- that often end up being closer than expected. St. Louis started the season poorly -- but has been playing a lot better, lately. On the other hand, Arizona started the season 2-0 -- but is just 2-3 in their last five. Take the Rams plus the points.

St Louis Rams +3

Philadelphia Eagles vs Seattle Seahawks

This is one of those "take your man pills" games. Time to find out if you really believe in the "betting against the Public." Seattle is coming off a big win. We're looking for them to continue this positive momentum at home against Philly.

Meanwhile, the Public is overwhelmingly on Philly at a rate we rarely see (almost 90% on Philly!). They are betting this game like they know the final score. The bookmakers are begging the Public to take Philly. Some very sharp sportsbooks are offering the Eagles -6.5. SportsInsights' betting statistics indicate that there is a lot of Sharp money on Seattle. Seattle +7 is widely available -- and we're hoping Public money will push the this line to 7.5 by game time.

Seattle Seahawks +7

New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts

What a difference a year makes. Last year, this was one of the biggest games of the regular season. This year, both teams might not even make the playoffs...but that's the beauty of the NFL. The Public is leaning towards the Colts in this game.

Both teams have shown glimpses of the powerhouses that they can be -- but have lacked consistency this season. Imagine the Patriots getting points, let alone almost a whole touchdown! We're taking the points and looking for NE offense to finally start playing.

New England +6

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch:

Games to Watch (14-9 = 60.9%)

St. Louis Rams +3
Seattle Seahawks +7
New England Patriots +6