South Alabama @ Appalachian State (-7.5)
South Alabama (1-2)
USA lost its first two I-A games, 52-38/27-20.
Jaguars allowed 550/404 TY in the two losses.
Jaguars pounded on a I-AA team LW, 87-10.
USA has 4 starters back on offense, 3 on defense.
Jaguars have 21 returning starts on the offensive line.
Frosh QB Lopez has thrown for 689 yards (7 TD’s, no INT’s).

Last three years, USA is 3-6 ATS as a road underdog.
Last four years, South Alabama is 14-18 ATS in Sun Belt games.
New coach Applewhite was 15-11 in two years at Houston (’17-’18)
South Alabama is 8-13 ATS in last 21 games coming off a win.

Appalachian State (2-1)
App State threw for 424 yards in LW’s 21-19 win at East Carolina.
App State lost its other I-A game 66-20 at Clemson.
App State has 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
App State has 15 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Aguilar started 13 games last year.

Under Clark, App State is 9-15 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Clark, App State is 12-26-1 ATS as a favorite.
Under Clark, App State is 13-20-1 ATS in Sun Belt games.
Under Clark, App State is 13-17-2 ATS coming off a win.

Teams haven’t met since 2021.
App State won last four series games (2-2 ATS)
App State won last three meetings, 113-17.
Over is 3-2 in last five series games.

South Alabama is one up and two down to begin the season, with the win coming in last week’s 87-10 romp over Northwestern State. I promise that the “87” is not a typo. The Jags went 24-28-28 over the first three quarters and racked up 620 yards on the Demons, who are 0-3, including a 62-28 loss to Tulsa to open the season.

App State is two up and one down, with a 66-10 loss to Clemson on the ledger. The Week 1 win over East Tennessee State wasn’t much to write home about, but a gritty win in Greenville over East Carolina by a 21-19 count was a nice victory for Shawn Clark’s crew. The 21-point output is a bit misleading, as App State had 515 yards of offense, including 424 from Joey Aguilar in the passing game.

The Mountaineers threw a pick-six and had a red-zone fumble, so there were some self-inflicted wounds, but they did erase a 16-0 deficit after the first quarter. For a team that I really liked to win the Sun Belt as the favorite, I’ve been a bit underwhelmed, but they have a good chance to start 1-0 in league play.

Through two games, the Mountaineers have 5.7 yards per play against FBS foes, while the Jaguars have 6.3. However, App State was no match whatsoever for Clemson, easily the best opponent between the two teams, as South Alabama lost to Ohio and North Texas to begin the season.

App State gave up 9.8 YPP to Clemson and still allowed 5.6 YPP to ECU last week. The Jags have given up 6.6 YPP in their two FBS games, including over 7.2 to North Texas. That’s how you get a total that has been moving up like this one has.

I have to say that it is very concerning that App State is running for just 4.3 yards per carry on the season and only had 2.7 YPC against East Carolina. Aguilar is tracking towards the best QB numbers in program history, but this is still a team that wants to have offensive balance and they don’t right now.

South Alabama is a team I wanted to fade entering the season. Former head coach Kane Wommack is now calling defensive plays in Tuscaloosa and former defensive coordinator Corey Batoon is the DC at Missouri.

With that, let’s look at the total. I like the Over 64 like seemingly everybody else. I think App State knows their running game isn’t up to par, so this is Aguilar’s show. Also, Gio Lopez for South Alabama has a 7/0 TD/INT ratio and threw for 432 yards against North Texas.

These defenses have combined to allow 82 plays of 10+ yards, 25 plays of 20+ yards, and 13 plays of 30+ yards. Explosive plays should be frequent on Thursday night.

Kicking off this week’s action in college football, the Appalachian State Mountaineers (2-1) and South Alabama Jaguars (1-2) meet on Thursday, Sept. 19, to open up Sun Belt Conference play. The game kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on ESPN.

The Mountaineers used an impressive comeback at East Carolina in Week 3 to move to 2-1 on the season. Meanwhile, the Jaguars picked up their first win of the year in a dominant effort over Northwestern State last weekend.

App State comes into this game as a 7-point favorite, while the over/under sits at 63.5.

It was an interesting offseason for South Alabama. Former head coach Kane Wommack guided the program to two bowl games in his three seasons in Mobile but left to become the defensive coordinator at Alabama under Kalen DeBoer.

The Jaguars also lost their own defensive coordinator after Corey Batoon took the same position at Missouri.

How did South Alabama replace two coaches who made the jump to the Southeastern Conference? It decided to hire from within by elevating Major Applewhite to head coach after serving as offensive coordinator.

This will be Applewhite's second job as head coach after guiding Houston to back-to-back winning seasons in 2017 and 2018.

So far, Applewhite’s offense has not disappointed. The Jaguars’ 87 points against Northwestern State were the most in a single game in school history. It also set a new Sun Belt Conference record for single-game points, and it was the most points scored by an FBS team since 1991.

Plus, South Alabama accomplished all of this in a contest shortened due to weather.

If Applewhite can get his defense to match the offense, he should be able to get this season back on track.

After the disappointing loss at Clemson, Appalachian State bounced back last week thanks to a great comeback against East Carolina. Those are types of performances that have become the norm under head coach Shawn Clark.

In fact, the Mountaineers have made four conference championship game appearances in the last six seasons. The only other FBS schools to do so are Alabama, Boise State, Clemson, Georgia, Oregon and Utah.

Last year was another successful campaign for Clark’s squad, as it reached the Sun Belt Championship before falling to Troy. Luckily for Clark, he returns a lot of players from that team.

The Mountaineers rank 33rd nationally in returning production with 68% coming back from the 2023 squad. That includes star quarterback Joey Aguilar.

The Sun Belt Newcomer of the Year threw for a career-high 424 yards to help App State overcome a 16-0 deficit against the Pirates last week. He’ll need another huge performance here to start conference play with a win.

Teams making the trip to Boone have to defend the pass well if they want to leave with a victory. Based on what I’ve seen so far, I don't see South Alabama doing that.

This is a Jaguars defense that allowed 415 yards and three touchdowns through the air to North Texas in the opener. The secondary followed that up by allowing new Ohio quarterback Parker Navarro to complete 71% of his passes and throw for his season-high in terms of yardage.

Ultimately, I just don't trust this new-look South Alabama squad and staff to go on the road and keep up here.

This is a team that lost the program’s winningest quarterback, a 1,000-yard rusher, a 1,300-yard receiver and a pair of defensive masterminds on the coaching staff.

Meanwhile, everything flipped for App State down the stretch last year. It won five of its last six to make the conference title game, including a win over previously undefeated James Madison.

South Alabama at Appalachian State
Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

For as much as the stability plays are over for the season, South Alabama still has a lot of things to work out in terms of its new coaching/personnel for 2024. Totally discounting the useless 87-10 win last week versus Northwestern State, the Jaguars did not play well in their first two games, one of which was a conference game.

After beating a 36.5-point spread by 40.5 points last week, they are now a play-against according to this system we have used several times successfully already in 2024: Both college football teams coming off a game which was decided by a margin 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next contest, going just 130-175-1 ATS (42.6%) over the last decade-plus.

South Alabama is also just 15-34 ATS coming off a win since 2014. Meanwhile, Appalachian State opens Sun Belt play here and should be a top contender again this season. QB Joey Aguilar has looked sharp so far with 964 yards passing and should be able to carve up the Jaguars’ defense. The Mountaineers have beaten USA 83-14 in the last two times hosting in head-to-head play.

Stanford @ Syracuse (-9)
Stanford (1-1)
Last three years, Stanford was 3-9/3-9/3-9 SU, 9-26 ATS
Cardinal has 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Stanford has 88 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Daniels started 10 games last year.

Last three years, Stanford is 4-9 ATS as a road underdog.
Last three years, Stanford is 8-20 ATS as an underdog.
Last three years, Stanford is 7-20 ATS in conference games.
Cardinal lost only I-AA game TY 34-27 at home to TCU.
Horned Frogs threw for 353 yards in that game.

Syracuse (2-0)
Syracuse won its first two games, 38-22/31-28.
Syracuse has 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Orangemen have 77 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB McCord started 12 games at Ohio State last year.

Last 3+ years, Syracuse is 8-4-1 ATS as a home favorite.
First two games, Syracuse threw ball for 354/381 yards.
Last 2+ years, Syracuse is 6-11 ATS in ACC games.
Ohio U ran ball for 255 yards in Orange’s 38-22 home win.

Why are these teams in the same league? (2,827 miles apart)
These teams haven’t met in this century.

Illinois @ Nebraska (-8)
Illinois (3-0)
Illinois won first two I-A games, 23-17/30-9.
Illinois has 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Illini has 77 returning starts on OL.
Junior QB Altmyer has 10 career starts.

Under Bielema, Illinois is 9-3 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, Bielema is 24-16-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Bielema, Illinois is 15-12 ATS in conference games.
Both of Illinois I-A games stayed under the total.
Illinois is +8 in turnovers, +4 in I-A games.

Nebraska (3-0)
Nebraska hasn’t had a winning season since 2016.
Nebraska won its first two I-A games, 40-7/28-10.
Cornhuskers have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Nebraska has 152 returning starts on OL, mostly from transfers.
Freshman QB Raiola threw for 469 yards in his two I-A games.

Under Rhule, Nebraska is 4-3 ATS as a home favorite (2-0 TY).
As college coach, Rhule is 15-16 ATS as a home favorite.
Last 5+ years, Cornhuskers are 6-12-1 ATS coming off a win.
In its two I-A games, Nebraska outrushed opponents, 372-72

Illinois won three of last four meetings.
Illini is 2-2 SU/3-1 ATS in last four visits to Lincoln.
Under is 8-3 in last eleven series games.

San Jose State @ Washington State (-12)
San Jose State (3-0)
Spartans are 26-19 last 4 years; coach bolted to Arizona
New coach Niumatalolo was 109-83 in 15 years at Navy.
San Jose has 3 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Spartans have only 20 starts returning on offensive line.
San Jose won its first road game 17-7 at Air Force.

San Jose held its two I-A opponents to 197/192 TY.
San Jose is 7-5/7-6/3-0 last 2+ years, thanks to +11/+11/+3 turnover ratios.
Since 2021, Spartans are 6-8 ATS in non-conference games.
Spartans lost last three bowls; their last bowl win was in 2015.
New coach Niumatalolo is 32-19 ATS as a road underdog.

Washington State (3-0)
Wazzu had emotional 24-19 win over rival Washington last week.
Trap game; Coogs visit Boise State next week.
Coogs have 6 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Wazzu has 63 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Mateer is 37-70/712 passing in two games.

Under Dickert, Wazzu is 9-5 ATS as a favorite.
Under Dickert, Wazzu is 5-4 ATS as a home favorite.
Coogs are 13-6-1 ATS in last 20 games coming off a win.
Coogs are 2-0 vs I-A opponents, despite giving up 491-452 TY.

These teams haven’t met since 2018.
Mountain West non-conference underdogs are 9-9 ATS.

Washington State is fresh off an Apple Cup victory over in-state rival Washington and is off to a 3-0 start both straight up and against the spread.

The Cougars have exceeded expectations so far this year, highlighted by the play of quarterback John Mateer. The dual-threat signal-caller has been electric all season. Last week against Washington, Mateer made big-time throws to extend drives in critical situations. He also had two long touchdowns on the ground.

The Washington State rushing attack has been much improved this season, a focus of this coaching staff in the summer.

Meanwhile, the Cougar defense has shown promise, specifically after the opposition crosses midfield.

Washington settled for four field goals and had two other drives stopped without scoring points. When Wazzu played, Texas Tech, three Red Raider drives also stalled inside the WSU's 40 yard-line and resulted in zero points.

San Jose State also comes in 3-0 SU and ATS, but the Spartans have played vastly weaker competition. We have backed the Spartans a couple of times this year, but I think they're fool's gold in this instance.

Their defensive metrics — specifically Stuff Rate, Defensive Finishing Drives and EPA per Play — have been skewed by playing Kennesaw State and Air Force. These are two of the worst offensive programs in the entire country that provide no explosiveness or passing threat to defend against.

This is an area where I think the Cougars can take advantage, as their balanced offensive attack provides multiple threats to this defense.

Reviewing the tape against Sacramento State, San Jose State was getting gashed up and down the field the entire first half. The turning point was Sac State getting stuffed on fourth-and-goal from the one-inch line while already up seven points. A score there would've extended the Hornets' lead.

More Sac State errors led to an additional two drives in the red zone ending with just three points.

Offensively, the Spartans can't run the ball and are completely reliant on wide receiver Nick Nash to make plays to extend drives. Nash has accounted for 46% of San Jose State’s offensive output this season. I believe the Cougars can limit his production in this matchup.

The spot screams "Spartans," and the market has agreed up to this point. However, I'm not completely sold on this San Jose State team being very good.

SJSU was fortunate to beat Sacramento State and found itself in battles with Air Force and Kennesaw State late in those games. I have complete confidence in Washington State being laser-focused in this matchup.

It is crazy to think that Nebraska hasn’t been in the AP Top 25 since 2019, but a 3-0 start with a decisive win over Colorado was enough to put the Huskers in the poll.

Nebraska hasn’t left Lincoln yet. They’ll go to Purdue next week, but the four-game homestand wraps up Friday night with this matchup. This is Illinois’s first foray outside of Champaign, so we’ll see how second-year starting QB Luke Altmyer handles what should be a raucous atmosphere at Memorial Stadium.

The Huskers won 20-7 last year to snap a three-game losing streak against the Illini. This season’s Nebraska team has a new QB, though, in Dylan Raiola, who has looked the part through three starts. The freshman has a 73.8% completion rate and a 5/1 TD/INT ratio in wins over UTEP, Colorado, and Northern Iowa. He’s been helped by a running back trio of Dante Dowdell, Emmett Johnson, and Rahmir Johnson that has combined for 395 yards on 66 carries, as well as top target Isaiah Neyor, who has 12 grabs for 187 yards.

Second-year OC Marcus Satterfield led his team to 8.8 yards per play last week, but they have picked up 5.7 yards per play in the two FBS games. The Illini defense should provide a stiffer test, as they’ve held their FBS opponents to 4.9 yards per play thus far. If nothing else, the Illini should stack up better in the trenches than Nebraska’s first three opponents.

It should be a good test for Raiola, who gets his first conference game in a Top 25 matchup. Altmyer hasn’t played a Top 25 matchup, but he did get a lot of experience last season as the starter for Bret Bielema’s bunch. Altmyer started the season with an ugly 3/7 TD/INT ratio over his first three starts, but settled down and posted a 10/3 ratio the rest of the way. He threw for 289 yards in the losing effort against Nebraska, but that was on 47 pass attempts.

Raiola is an upgrade over Heinrich Haarberg, but the 20-7 game last season was no accident. The two teams just barely got over 600 yards of offense. I think this is another low-scoring affair. I’ll be curious to see how Nebraska holds up in the trenches against their first real test of the season in that area.

Stanford Cardinal at Syracuse Orange (-9, 57.5): Both teams are off of early-season bye weeks, as Stanford has a miracle cover in a loss against TCU and a blowout win over Cal Poly. Syracuse has scored 69 (nice) points in wins over Ohio and Georgia Tech.

Stanford was in a dogfight with Cal Poly until pulling away with 27 unanswered points in the second half. It was a 7-7 game with 21 seconds left when Justin Lamson scored to give Stanford a halftime lead. Hard for me to love their offensive production with what Kyle McCord and the Orange have been doing with LeQuint Allen and Oronde Gadsden healthy.

Updated Nebraska-Illinois betting at BetMGM

Nebraska open -8.5, now -7.5
▪️ 43% of bets, 45% of money on Nebraska

Total open 43.5, now 42.5
▪️ 64% of bets, 63% of money on Over

Illini open +270, now +260
▪️ 73% of bets, 78% of money on Illinois

College Football Week 4 betting at BetMGM

Most bet games
1. Tennessee-Oklahoma
2. USC-Michigan
3. Illinois-Nebraska

Most bet teams
1. Tennessee -7
2. USC -6
3. Illinois +7.5

Most bet teams $
1. Tennessee -7
2. USC -6
3. Illinois +7.5

Illinois at Nebraska
Friday, 8:00 p.m. (FOX)

I have been writing about these Ranked vs. Ranked Systems almost every week for the last year-plus since we introduced the CFB Analytics Reports. I just love them because they demonstrate how important home-field advantage is in the big games, especially when they are supposed to be tight.

This Illinois-Nebraska game qualifies for the 3-sequence: 1) In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 172-85 SU and 146-103-8 ATS (58.6%). 2) Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 104-18 SU and 76-42-4 ATS (64.4%). 3) Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 54-15 SU & 47-19-3 ATS (71.2%) since 2017.

The Cornhuskers won head-to-head in Champaign last year 20-7, and in my opinion, head coach Matt Rhule’s 2024 team is far better than its predecessor. Lincoln figures to be jacked for this too.