Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3; 41.5)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

Speaking of another team that looked dreadful in Week 1, it’s the Cleveland Browns. Despite holding Dallas to just 265 yards and 4.4 ypp, Cleveland lost 33-17 largely due to the Browns turning the ball over three times in their own territory and giving up a cheap nine points.

Deshaun Watson was bad (24-for-45, 169 yards, TD, 2 INT, 13.5 QBR and sacked six times). However, he does get a better matchup this week in Jacksonville.

The Jaguars ran man coverage 73% of the time against Miami last week under new defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen. Jacksonville’s already poor secondary lost its best corner Tyson Campbell to a hamstring injury this week. The Jaguars were one of only two teams to allow over 300 passing yards in Week 1 and that was to Tua Tagovailoa, and we saw how poorly he played on Thursday Night Football even before leaving with a concussion.

Road teams in Week 2 off a double digit loss in Week 1 are 38-23-1 ATS since 2005.

Week 1 favorites of 6 points or more that lost their games have bounced back with a record of 20-5 SU and 19-6 ATS (76%) in Week 2 since 2002 (+12.4 units, ROI: 49.6%, Grade 70)
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+5 at KC)

In Week 2 games between teams that are both 0-1 ATS, underdogs are on a phenomenal run of 18-21 SU but 26-11-2 ATS (70.3%) since 2014 (+14.8 units, ROI: 40%, Grade 68)
System Matches (PLAY ALL ATS): BUFFALO (+2.5 at MIA), NY GIANTS (+1.5 at WAS), TENNESSEE (+3.5 vs. NYJ), LAS VEGAS (+9 at BAL)

Teams that won close games in Week 1 (3 points or less) are 39-21-1 Under (65%) the total in Week 2 since 2005 (+14.8 units, ROI: 24.7%, Grade 63)
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): Buffalo-MIAMI (o/u at 48.5), Chicago-HOUSTON (o/u at 45.5)

DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 30-59 (33.7%) over the past two seasons.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): LAC-CAR, CIN-KC

Updated NFL Week 2 betting at BetMGM

Most bet games
1. Chargers-Panthers
2. Bengals-Chiefs
3. Colts-Packers

Most bet teams
1. Chargers -5.5
2. Cowboys -6
3. Colts -2.5

Most bet teams $
1. Ravens -8.5
2. Cowboys -6
3. 49ers -4.5

Popular (+60% of bets) NFL Week 2 bets at BetMGM

81% on Chargers -5.5
81% on 49ers -4.5
78% on Ravens -8.5
76% on Cowboys -6
74% on Commanders -1.5
74% on Texans -6.5
73% on Rams +1
71% on Chiefs -6.5

“There has been plenty of action on the Ravens to bounce back after losing in Week 1. The Cowboys and 49ers are also popular with bettors. The sportsbook is hoping for one or more of these teams to be upset.”

– Tristan Davis, Senior Trading Manager, BetMGM

Most bet (tickets) underdogs to win on Sunday at BetMGM

1. Buccaneers +300

2. Raiders +350

3. Packers +120

Most bet (tickets) NFL Week 2 player props at BetMGM

1. J.K. Dobbins over 57.5 rush yards

2. Brock Purdy over 243.5 pass yards

3. Isiah Pacheco over 67.5 rush yards

99% of bets are on the OVER for each prop

I'm on quite a few under dogs today

gaints
vikings
cleveland
raiders
panthers
titans
aint for the weak of heart

NFL Week 2 total betting at BetMGM

Most bet OVERs

1. Saints-Cowboys 47
2. Giants-Commanders 43.5
3. 49ers-Vikings 46.5

Most bet UNDERs

1. Buccaneers-Lions 51.5
2. Colts-Packers 41.5
3. Raiders-Ravens 41

DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the handle has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has been quite sharp, 59-42 ATS (58.4%). This number for a supermajority in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for the number of bets has also produced a 44-33 (57.1%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): LAC-CAR, SEA-NE, NYJ-TEN, PIT-DEN, ATL-PHI

DK Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #9, the magic mark for supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2022 and 2023 with a record of 86-123 (41.1%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On the number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 87-104 (45.5%) record.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): LVR-BAL, NO-DAL, TB-DET, NYG-WAS

DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a supermajority (>=64%) of the handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 30-59 (33.7%) over the past two seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER): LVR-BAL

JAX remains the only game truly likely to see rain (while a handful of others COULD). The scattered showers north of JAX should pivot south through the afternoon.

I expect a few off and on showers during the game, a storm or heavier downpour is possible.