Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at NC State Wolfpack (-21.5, 49)
Saturday, Noon ET (ACC)

Louisiana Tech has one data point, as the Bulldogs beat FCS Nicholls 25-17 all the way back on August 31. The poorly-timed bye might be enough to make some improvements, but the Bulldogs had just 5.3 yards per play in that game and turned the football over five times. QB Blake Baker was only 12-of-24 and got sacked twice to go with two picks.

NC State started slow against Western Carolina and racked up a large percentage of their offensive yardage in the fourth quarter with a 21-point barrage. I know that they got waxed by Tennessee last week, but the Vols look like a pretty damn good team and Nico Iamaleava looks like a dude.

I think this is a “get-right game” for NC State with Clemson on deck to open up ACC play. Grayson McCall is still a really good college QB and Jordan Waters was an excellent running back at Duke. This is a spot where NC State should let out a little frustration and pour it on an overmatched opponent.

There are a few 21s out there and that, obviously, is preferable to -21.5.

Washington State Cougars vs. Washington Huskies (-4.5, 56)
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (Peacock)

This year’s version of the Apple Cup will be played at Lumen Field in Seattle, so it won’t be at Husky Stadium, but I still give UDub a bit of a home-field bias for the game. There’s certainly a lot of excitement with the program coming off of a College Football Playoff appearance, not to mention a much shorter trek for a good portion of the fan base. Also, Wazzu doesn’t even have a conference and the orphaned program and its fans are wondering what’s next.

But, more than those factors, Washington is just the better team and I think they’re undervalued. Their 30-9 win over Eastern Michigan wasn’t overly impressive, but they racked up 8.8 yards per play in that one. They also methodically beat Weber State in Week 1.

I also think Wazzu is getting too much credit for last week’s win over Texas Tech. The Cougs were +3 in TO margin and only had one touchdown drive of more than 43 yards. They also gave up almost 500 yards of offense, most of it through the air, where I think Mississippi State transfer Will Rogers will thrive with the Husky offense.

DraftKings is the high water mark at 5 at time of publish, but plenty of 4.5s are available out there.

Nevada Wolf Pack at Minnesota Golden Gophers (-17.5, 43.5)
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (BTN)

It’ll be an early kick for the boys from Reno as they head to the Twin Cities to take on Minnesota. Nevada might have a little bit of hidden Over value in this game. The Wolf Pack only scored 17 points on Georgia Southern last week, which looks rather embarrassing when you consider Boise State dropped 56 on the Eagles in Week 1, but the box score is worthy of a look.

Nevada had 498 yards worth of offense and actually outgained Georgia Southern by more than 200 yards. The Wolf Pack racked up 77 offensive plays and 6.5 YPP, including 5.4 yards per carry. I’m not saying that they’ll find that same measure of success against Minnesota, but the Wolf Pack deserved to score more than 17 points.

The game ended with the Wolf Pack on the 5-yard-line. They had two plus-territory turnovers on downs and also had a fumble deep in Georgia Southern territory.

I also feel like Minnesota is way more balanced now with Max Brosmer than they were with Athan Kaliakmanis. This feels like an offense cut more from the Tanner Morgan cloth, so the Golden Gophers aren’t just a one-dimensional group. They’ve only rushed for 2.7 yards per carry, so the ground game hasn’t gotten going, but their physicality is something Nevada hasn’t seen yet through three games.

I like some points in this one, especially with no weather concerns at all.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-7, 55) at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Saturday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

The consensus number is -7 across the market with some shops showing a little bit of extra juice for Saturday’s Conference USA clash in Murfreesboro. The two teams have pretty similar bodies of work so far, as each team was bludgeoned by a SEC opponent and beat a FCS opponent. In WKU’s case, it was a 31-0 triumph over Eastern Kentucky in a game that had a little bad blood coming in. In MTSU’s case, it was Tennessee Tech by a touchdown in Week 1.

Middle Tennessee got outgained by the Golden Eagles in Week 1 and actually trailed 25-24 before a seven-play, 75-yard drive in 44 seconds to win the game on a Frank Peasant 30-yard TD run. Tennessee Tech QB Jordyn Potts efficiently spread the ball around going 27-of-38 for 256 yards with three touchdowns.

I have no doubt that five-year CFB veteran T.J. Finley, who transferred in from Texas State after posting a 24/8 TD/INT ratio with a 67.4% completion rate and nearly 3,500 passing yards will be able to do something similar and then some.

The Blue Raiders are in a big transition year going from Rick Stockstill to Derek Mason. Stockstill had been with the team for over 15 years and all of the players were based on his schemes and wants. It’ll take time in Murfreesboro and I think we will see that this week.

Notre Dame (-8) at Purdue
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)

Riley Leonard was expected to be the answer as Notre Dame’s newest transfer quarterback. Instead, he was a big part of the problem in the season’s highest-profile upset so far. Leonard failed to consistently move the offense and folded under pressure in the fourth quarter last Saturday, when the Fighting Irish were stunned 16-14 by Northern Illinois, a 28-point underdog.

With their playoff hopes already on the ropes, the Irish need to answer the bell and run off a long winning streak. Maybe the stunner delivered by the Huskies was a needed wake-up call for Notre Dame, but maybe the Leonard-led offense simply lacks what it takes.

While a trip to Purdue is not going to be the ultimate test, the Irish will show what they are made of Saturday at West Lafayette, Ind., and in future weeks. Leonard is likely to start despite an injury to his left non-throwing shoulder, a week after the Duke transfer threw for 163 yards (only 5.1 per attempt) and two interceptions against Northern Illinois.

The upset was no fluke. Notre Dame was outgained 388 to 286 on its home field by a Mid-American Conference team. The Irish had all of their offensive flaws, including an inexperienced line, exposed. Leonard does not trigger an offense that will produce many explosive plays.

The Boilermakers are better at the quarterback position with Hudson Card, who’s in his second season in the Big Ten after transferring from Texas. Card connected on 24 of 25 passes for 273 yards and four touchdowns in a 49-0 victory over Indiana State two weeks ago.

Notre Dame has the far superior defense and that unit, coupled with its running attack, should be enough to subdue Purdue. Still, this appears to be a game the Irish will need to grind out. The DraftKings lookahead line of Notre Dame -16 has been chopped in half, so significant point-spread value has disappeared on the dog. I took +11 and still will recommend the home ‘dog as a play while predicting the Irish escape with a one-score win.

Oregon (-17) at Oregon State
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. (FOX)

In the long run, the Ducks could prove to be national title contenders. But the truth through two games is Oregon has been way overrated in the betting market. The numbers produced by quarterback Dillon Gabriel don’t indicate he is overhyped. Gabriel has completed 84.3% of his passes with four touchdowns and no interceptions. The Oklahoma transfer is transitioning to a new offense and it will take some time for everything to run smoothly.

Oregon was a 49-point favorite in a 24-14 victory over Idaho and an 18-point favorite in a last-second 37-34 victory over Boise State. After two home games, the Ducks hit the road and again lay a big number at Oregon State, which is treating this game as its Super Bowl.

The Beavers, off a 21-0 win at San Diego State, are solid enough on both sides of the ball to stay competitive. Veteran quarterback Gevani McCoy, a transfer from Idaho, and running backs Jam Griffin and Anthony Hankerson have enough talent to trade punches with the Ducks.

Texas A&M (-4) at Florida
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. (ABC)

It’s not easy to back Florida coach Billy Napier again. Two weeks ago, the Gators were crushed in The Swamp by a Miami team with a star quarterback and a high-powered offense. Texas A&M does not pose the same threat. In fact, the Aggies have a struggling offense led by quarterback Conner Weigman, who was 12-for-30 for 100 yards and two interceptions in a season-opening loss to Notre Dame.

The key to this play should be freshman DJ Lagway, who arrived at Florida as the nation’s No. 1 quarterback recruit. Lagway passed for 456 yards and three touchdowns last week in his first start, a 45-7 victory over Samford. Lagway might split time with veteran Graham Mertz (concussion), but the Gators’ players sound energized to rally around Lagway.

Colorado (-7.5) at Colorado State
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (CBS)

The Rams led the Buffaloes 28-17 with eight minutes remaining last year in Boulder. Colorado State, which blew the lead and lost 43-35, rolled up 499 total yards behind quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi and star receiver Tory Horton. A weak Buffaloes pass defense that is missing injured safety Shilo Sanders will have trouble containing Fowler-Nicolosi and Horton in the rematch. Colorado has two superstars yet too many shortcomings.

No. 13 Oklahoma State (-19.5; 62.5) at Tulsa
Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

Despite being outgained 648-385, Oklahoma State came back from a 21-7 halftime deficit to defeat Arkansas, 39-31 in double overtime. The Cowboys defeated FCS No. 1 South Dakota State, 44-20, in the opener, where they only outgained the Jackrabbits 394-388. Oklahoma State is +3 through two games in turnover margin and 3-for-4 on fourth down versus their opponent’s mark of 0-for-6.

Meanwhile, Tulsa gave up a 17-7 halftime lead last weekend at Arkansas State, falling 28-24.

While these teams do not meet annually, the programs have faced off 77 times (Oklahoma State 44-28-5 series lead), and Tulsa has not defeated the Cowboys since 1998.

Even though he is an offense guy, Tulsa head coach Kevin Wilson certainly has familiarity with Mike Gundy as Wilson spent nine years at Oklahoma under Bob Stoops.

Oklahoma State is not in the best of spots here with yet another 11 a.m. CT kickoff and having to host Utah and travel to Kansas State for the next two games. It is also fair to wonder how much energy the Cowboys have out of the gate, especially on defense, considering they played 90 snaps and now have to do without edge rusher Collin Oliver, who ranks fourth amongst all edges in FBS for pass rush grade and was second for QB pressures per PFF.

Central Michigan (+19; 48.5) at Illinois
Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET (PEACOCK)

Illinois ended up being +5 last week and won outright 23-17 over No. 19 Kansas. A late first-half pick-six turned the tide of the game for the Illini, who benefited from four Kansas turnovers, including three INTs from Jalon Daniels.

The fans in Champaign stormed the field for the big win over the ranked opponent. Now Illinois has to come down from the high to face a MAC opponent before traveling to Nebraska next week.

Central Michigan is off a blowout loss (52-16) vs. FIU last week, primarily due to -6 turnovers, including the new starting quarterback, Joe Labas, who threw 5 INTs.

Bret Bielema is just 5-10 ATS as a home favorite in his fourth season in Champaign. On the other hand, Jim McElwain covered at Notre Dame last year and at Oklahoma State and at Penn State in 2022, so he has demonstrated the ability to get his Chippewas up for Power 4 opponents.

Fire Up Chips!

Week 3 College Football Best Bet: Central Michigan +19

Vanderbilt (-10.5; 44.5) at Georgia State
Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

Vandy is 2-0 to start the season including an upset of Virginia Tech in Week 1. Now, the Commodores travel to Atlanta to face Georgia State before their SEC opener at Missouri.

Both teams are led by transfer QBs, with Vandy’s Diego Pavia (New Mexico State) and Georgia State’s Christian Veilleux (Penn State and Pittsburgh).

Vanderbilt has transformed its offense to heavier emphasis on the run game, having run the ball 87 times in two games vs. only 30 passing plays. Pavia has run it 39 times for 155 yards and two touchdowns by himself.

Georgia State is 1-1 and escaped 27-24 over Chattanooga, who began this year ranked No. 9 in FCS. The Panthers lost 35-12 in their opener at Georgia Tech, but the game was closer than the final score indicated, as Georgia State only mustered three points in three separate goal-to-go situations.

GSU started the season a bit behind the eight-ball with former head coach Shawn Elliott resigning in February to take a position on Shane Beamer’s South Carolina staff, so Dell McGee, previously the running backs coach at Georgia, was a late hire.

Cincinnati at Miami (OH)
Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET (ESPNU)

Is the right team favored in the Cincinnati-Miami (OH) contest on Saturday? I can see why it would be unreasonable for a MAC team to be favored over a Big 12 team, but sometimes tough decisions have to be made. By all rights, the Redhawks can stake claim to being the better team in this matchup. They won the head-to-head meeting last year 31-24 and went on to an 11-3 season. They also brought back 12 starters from that team. The defense allowed just 15.9 PPG in 2023.

Cincinnati, meanwhile, was 3-9 last year, and a huge percentage of the betting public at DraftKings is backing the Bearcats. Apparently, they haven’t been exposed to these two different revenge angles associated with this game. First, Cincinnati is 8-12 SU and 6-14 ATS in revenge mode since 2016. Second, teams looking to avenge outright losses where they were double-digit favorites have struggled, going just 102-116 ATS (46.8%) since 2016. This looks like a huge point-proving game for Miami (OH), and with underdogs on an 8-2 ATS run in the head-to-head series, I’ll lean that way.

Boston College at Missouri
Saturday, 12:45 p.m. ET (SECN)

Crediting my guy Doug Upstone of Gambler’s World, Missouri is favored this week by 15-plus points against a ranked team for the first time in 30 years. My concern…Missouri’s offense last week did not look the part against what should have been an overmatched Buffalo team. It took a rather cheap late score for the Tigers to cover that point spread (thankfully), but it doesn’t leave me comfortable in their chances of covering this big number against a Boston College team that is gaining confidence quickly under new head coach Bill O’Brien. The Golden Eagles are 2-0 SU and ATS, having outscored their first two opponents 84-13. So why is this number so big?

Mizzou was expected to be one of the top teams in the country this year, bringing back a lot of talented experience from last year’s 11-win team. However, in two games against very weak opponents, this juggernaut offense is averaging fewer yards per play (6.4 to 6.5) than it did after going through an entire SEC slate last year. At the same time, BC, in O’Brien’s new offense, is averaging a phenomenal 12.5 yards per pass attempt. This is a team that is clicking offensively, and that is exactly what I like in an underdog.

College Football Week 3 betting at BetMGM

Most bet games
1. Alabama-Wisconsin
2. LSU-South Carolina
3. Missouri-Boston College

Most bet teams
1. Alabama -16.5
2. LSU -6
3. Georgia -23.5

Most bet teams $
1. Alabama -16.5
2. Texas -35.5
3. LSU -6

In the last seven meetings, Georgia has outscored Kentucky 208-65 and UK hasn’t scored more than 17 points in any game. The Cats were held to six or fewer in three of them

College Football Week 3 total betting at BetMGM

Most bet OVERs

1. Alabama-Wisconsin 48.5
2. LSU-South Carolina 48
3. Georgia-Kentucky 44.5

Most bet UNDERs

1. Boston College-Missouri 54
2. Notre Dame-Purdue 47
3. Utah-Utah State 43.5

Most bet (tickets) underdogs to win on Saturday at BetMGM

1. Colorado State +210

2. South Carolina +200

3. Boston College +500