The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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The Cincinnati Reds and Atlanta Braves will face off on Monday night in a makeup for a game originally scheduled for July 24.
Cincinnati is running out time on the season, as the Reds are 69-75 and 9.5 games out of the last wild-card spot. Atlanta (78-65) is likely out of the NL East race, but they are in a dogfight with the Mets for the last NL wild card spot, as the two division rivals are tied right now.
The Braves are -162 favorites on the moneyline in a game with a total set at 8.5 runs (-105/-115).
Taking the mound for the Reds tonight will be 34-year old Nick Martinez. Martinez has 38 appearances this year but just 12 starts, as he has mostly been used out of the bullpen. He has been starting regularly since August 5 and has posted a 3.72 ERA since. Overall on the season Martinez has a 3.67 ERA, 3.49 xERA and 3.58 FIP. He has been slightly worse as a starter, with a 4.42 FIP and 3.98 xFIP since August 5th.
Martinez has a whiff rate that ranks in the 30th percentile among qualified pitchers this season and a 24th percentile strikeout rate. He has found success in limiting walks and hard contact, as he has a 98th percentile walk rate, 85th percentile barrel rate, 96th percentile hard hit rate allowed and 91st percentile average exit velocity allowed.
Cincinnati’s offense has been a disappointment for much of the year. They rank 25th in wRC+ but 16th in wOBA, 11th in ISO and 17th in SLG. The Reds have the seventh-highest strikeout rate in the league but rank 13th in walk rate.
The Reds are 28th in hard hit rate, 21st in barrel rate and 29th in average exit velocity. They rank 17th in ground ball rate, 13th in fly ball rate and 12th in line drive rate, as they don’t have a strong trend in any direction in terms of the elevation of their batted balls.
Charlie Morton will get the start for Atlanta tonight. The 40-year-old is still going strong in his 17th Major League season with a 4.24 ERA, 4.58 xERA and a 4.54 FIP. Morton has thrown 142-⅓ innings this year but does not often go very deep into games anymore at this point in his career.
Morton throws his curveball 42% of the time as it has a Stuff+ of 122, which is well above average. This is down from the range of 134-149 that he has been in over the last four years, however. This has caused his overall Stuff+ number to drop to 95, which is his first time under 105 since this metric started being tracked in 2020.
Morton has still been able to put up a strikeout rate that ranks in the 63rd percentile and a walk rate in the 31st percentile. The veteran has a hard hit rate that ranks in the 50th percentile but a 17th percentile barrel rate allowed. This dichotomy is interesting, as Morton has a 75th percentile ground ball rate, which usually would result in allowing less barrels than your hard contact rate, but his curveball usage gives him a unique profile.
Atlanta’s offense ranks 19th in wRC+ and 13th in wOBA this season. The Braves' main weakness has been their plate discipline, as they strike out at the 8th-highest rate and rank 19th in walk rate. The Braves rank 12th in SLG, 20th in OBP and 8th in ISO. They are 15th in wRC+ in the last 30 days with a mark of 100, as they have been a league average offense as of late.
When the Braves do hit the ball, they hit it harder than anyone else in the league. Atlanta ranks 1st in hard hit rate, 2nd in barrel rate, and 2nd in average exit velocity. They rank 21st in ground ball rate, 11th in line drive rate, and 12th in fly ball rate.
The Braves have been a great bet to the under this season, as they are 84-51-8 to the under, including 46-21-3 at home. Cincinnati is 69-67-8 to the under overall this season but 35-32 to the over on the road.
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09-09-24 10:30 PM |
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