Jets @ 49ers (-3.5)
QB Rodgers played only 4 plays LY before he tore his achilles.
Rodgers is 159-85-1 as an NFL starter.
Last four years, Jets are 10-18 ATS as road underdogs.
Jets are 5-13-1 ATS in last 19 games vs NFC opponents.
Last 8 years, Jets are 2-6 SU/3-4-1 ATS in Week 1 games.
Over is 6-2 in their last eight road openers.
Jets coach Saleh was DC for 49ers from 2017-20.

Under Shanahan, San Francisco is 18-22-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Last two years, 49ers were 3-7 ATS vs AFC opponents.
QB Purdy is 21-5 as an NFL starter.
Last 7 years, 49ers are 3-4 SU/2-5 ATS in Week 1 games.
Under is 8-2 in their last ten home openers.

49ers are 11-3 in series games.
Jets are 2-4 in road meetings, winning last one 23-17 in OT in last one, in 2016.

Not only is the Super Bowl loser 5-19 against the spread in Week 1 over the last 24 seasons, but this 49ers team didn’t exactly have a smooth offseason. It took a while for San Francisco to get Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams extended, and the latter is a bit of a concern. Williams is still the best left tackle in football, and he should ultimately return to that level. But if it takes him some time, this 49ers offense could be in trouble. The rest of the line leaves a lot to be desired, especially when it comes to pass protection. And that’s why this matchup is a tough one for San Francisco. New York should be able to dial up some pressure and make Brock Purdy uncomfortable, which will be interesting after having seen him struggle in training camp and the preseason. The Jets should also be tough against the run.

Last year, New York was ninth in the NFL in Rush EPA per play allowed. And the main focus of this Jets team will be slowing down Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers running game, meaning there could be some extra bodies in the box. New York will likely take its chances in the secondary, where Sauce Gardner and Co. should be able to hold their own without doubling anybody.

Offensively, this is the right game for Aaron Rodgers to be making his return. The 49ers defense was 10th in the league in EPA per play allowed last season, but a drop-off could be coming in 2024. San Francisco lost a bunch of important pass-rushing pieces from last year’s team, including longtime 49ers star Arik Armstead. If this group can’t consistently generate pressure against Rodgers, the future Hall of Famer should be able to pick their secondary apart. New York also happens to have a better offensive line in 2024 than it did in 2023, and the group could end up being league average up front this season. So it’s not like the 49ers will be working against a porous unit.

Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+118)

We haven’t seen Rodgers play a full game since January 8th, 2023. Naturally, there’s real uncertainty surrounding the 40-year-old, especially with him having torn his Achilles in Week 1 last season. But Rodgers attacked his rehab relentlessly, and he was seemingly able to return to action towards the end of last season. So, the fact that he didn’t and then had an extra eight or so months to get right should mean that he’ll be relatively healthy to start the year.

As previously mentioned, this could also be a good matchup for Rodgers. The 49ers pass rush is a real concern heading into this season, and the reviews from training camp for the Jets offensive line were positive. And if New York can do a good job of keeping Rodgers upright, it’s hard not to like the legendary quarterback to throw for two touchdowns. It’s also even harder to pass on that at plus-money odds.

New York’s offense will definitely rely heavily on the elite legs of Breece Hall, as San Francisco was just 26th in the NFL in Rush EPA per play allowed last year. But slowing down the running game was likely the focal point of the 49ers game plan here — and the entire offseason. So, this thing should come down to Rodgers’ arm eventually.

Since 1998, underdogs in Week 1 Monday Night Football games are 29-12-1 ATS

Only 38% of bets are on Jets +4 at 49ers.

49ers-Jets total at BetMGM

45.5: Open

43.5: This morning

43: Now

67% of money is on the UNDER

Updated 49ers-Jets betting at BetMGM

49ers open -6, now -4
▪️ 62% of bets, 57% of money on 49ers

Total open 45.5, now 43.5
▪️ 53% of bets, 67% of money on Under

Jets open +225, now +170
▪️ 48% of bets, 35% of money on Jets