1 p.m. ET: Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-4, 41.5)

This line opened with the Saints listed as a 5-point home favorite. The public is happy to fade Carolina and lay the points with New Orleans at home. However, despite receiving 56% of spread bets we’ve seen the Saints fall from -5 to -4. Some shops are even inching town toward -3.5. Essentially, all movement and liability has been on Carolina plus the points. We haven’t seen any buyback on New Orleans. The Panthers are receiving 44% of spread bets but 72% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split. Week 1 road dogs are 46-30 ATS (61%) with a 17% ROI since 2016. Week 1 divisional dogs are 30-14 ATS (68%) with a 31% ROI since 2016. When both teams missed the playoffs the previous season, as is the case here, the dog is 29-18 ATS (62%) in Week 1 since 2016. The Panthers also have correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (41.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover the number.

1 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears (-4, 44.5)

This line opened with the Bears listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. The public is leaning toward laying the points with Chicago at home. However, despite receiving 54% of spread bets we’ve seen the Bears fall from -4.5 to -4. Several shops are juicing up the Titans +4 at -115, signaling a possible further gameday dip down to +3.5. In other words, we are seeing sharp reverse line movement on Tennessee plus the points, as the line is moving in their direction despite being the unpopular side. Week 1 dogs are 71-55 ATS (56%) with a 9% ROI since 2016. Week 1 road dogs are 46-30 ATS (61%) with a 17% ROI since 2016. Shawn Smith, the lead ref, is 53-38 ATS (59%) to the road team, historically. The Bears would also be in a fade spot in terms of betting against a rookie quarterback making his NFL debut in Caleb Williams. The last 15 signal callers drafted 1st overall have gone 0-14-1 in their first starts.

4:05 p.m. ET: Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 40)

This line opened with the Chargers listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the short chalk with Los Angeles at home. However, despite receiving 62% of spread bets we’ve seen the Chargers fall from -3.5 to -3. The Raiders +3 is juiced up to -115, signaling further liability on Las Vegas and a possible dip down to +2.5. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on the Raiders, with pros grabbing the points and causing the line to move toward Las Vegas despite being the unpopular side. Week 1 divisional dogs are 30-14 ATS (68%) with a 31% ROI since 2016. The Raiders have correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (40), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover. Those looking to play Las Vegas would be wise to grab the key number of +3 as long as it’s still available. If you only have access to +2.5 you might consider Las Vegas in a “Wong Teaser.” By taking the Raiders up from +2.5 to +8.5, savvy wiseguys and pass through the top key numbers of 3 and 7. We saw on Friday night how the Packers failed to cover the +2/+2.5 but did cover the teaser +8/+8.5.

4:25 p.m. ET: Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5, 42.5)

This line opened with the Buccaneers listed as a 4-point home favorite. The public is laying the points with Tampa Bay at home. However, despite receiving 56% of spread bets we’ve seen Tampa Bay fall from -4 to -3.5. The line has even fallen to as low as -3 throughout the week. It has never risen up to -4.5. Essentially, all movement and liability has been on Washington plus the points. The Commanders are only receiving 44% of spread bets but 56% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Week 1 road dogs are 46-30 ATS (61%) with a 17% ROI since 2016. Bill Vinovich is 95-68 ATS (58%) to the road team, historically. Sharps have also hit the over, raising the total from 41.5 to 42.5. The over is receiving 54% of bets but 72% of dollars, a sharp bet discrepancy.