Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 48.5)
Friday, 8:20 p.m. ET

There are a lot of moving parts to this game, as the travel is quite extensive for both teams. These are also two teams with really strong QB play and a couple of playoff squads from last year. Also, like any standalone NFL game, money is sure to be flowing. It does seem like the Eagles have been the preferred side as the summer has gone along. Philadelphia has gotten a lot of preseason love in markets like the Super Bowl, NFC winner, NFC No. 1 seed, and things of that sort. That being said, the books that have gone to 3 have seen buyback on Green Bay, so this line will work for the books for now, who will likely take Eagles -2.5 and Packers ML action, much like what we’d see in a Super Bowl with this kind of number.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins (-3, 49.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

I’m using what I’ll call “consensus” lines to highlight these games, so the most common number across the market. There were 3.5s early in the summer, but the Jaguars looked great in the preseason and the talking heads will push more than just a narrative about the Dolphins here. Remember that Miami beat one playoff team last season and it was the Cowboys on Christmas Eve by a 24-22 score. They lost to the Bills twice, Eagles, Chiefs twice, and Ravens. The Jaguars were not a playoff team last season, but many think they have a great shot this year. I could see this game coming off of 3 down to 2.5 as the week rolls along.

Minnesota Vikings (-1, 41.5) at New York Giants
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

We’re limited on road favorites in Week 1, but this is a line where we’ve seen the role flip. It is still more or less a coin flip, but Giants -1 was the line back in July and now we’ve got Vikings -1 across the board. The regionality of sports betting may be coming into play here, as a lot of people are very low on the Giants and a lot of them are probably on the East Coast. Fervent fans may be backing the Giants, but the majority of the fan base is probably pessimistic about the season. As New York and New Jersey go, so goes most of the rest of the nation from a betting odds standpoint and the Giants are not getting much love.

Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears (-4.5, 45.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

This is one of my favorite lines to follow in Week 1. The Bears are likely to be a public darling with tons of hype about Caleb Williams and others. Meanwhile, the Titans are an afterthought, as you’ll hear people make a case for the Texans, Colts, and Jaguars in the AFC South, but nobody is making a case for the Titans. Few people trust Will Levis and fewer people think the Titans are a playoff-caliber team, which is what it takes to beat the mighty Bears. I’m convinced we may see this line tick down as the week goes along in what sets up a classic Pros vs. Joes type of handicap.

Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills (-6, 48)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

This is another line I have my eye on for a variety of reasons. This was 7 upon opening in May and June and ticked as low as 5.5 just last week before settling in at 6. The Cardinals with a healthy Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. will draw a lot of interest, plus Jonathan Gannon is a defensive mastermind. I also think that a lot of people have soured on the Bills with their limited wide receiver resources and also the defensive injuries that they are already dealing with. I guess we’ll see what the influential bettors in the market think about the Bills based on where this line swings.

Houston Texans (-2.5, 48.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

This is quite a big game right out of the chute for AFC South purposes, as the Texans are one of the two road favorites on the board. I think a lot of people are simply going to look at this game as CJ Stroud vs. Anthony Richardson. What we saw from Stroud last year and the impressive transaction haul for the Texans to surround him with more skill position talent over the summer is going to be a very attractive proposition for most bettors and we’ve seen that with the move from 1.5 to 2.5. However, this line also hasn’t hit 3 yet. I think that’s a point of resistance and the books know Colts money comes back. To this point, they haven’t wanted or needed any. That may change as the week goes along and any line around a key number is worth your attention.

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5, 42)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

We saw a line move here towards the home favorites when it was announced that Bo Nix would be the starting QB for the Broncos. We haven’t seen anybody really interested in taking the other side with enough capital or respect to swing the line back the other way. There are some faraway places still showing 5, but the legal U.S. landscape is 5.5 or 6. I really don’t know if or when Denver dollars hit the board. That being said, I do wonder if bettors are excited enough about Seattle to lay 6 with a first-year head coach and a lot of changes.

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5, 44)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

This has been one of the more notable line-movers of the preseason, as trickles of Washington money seem to be steadily coming in. This was -4 over most of the summer and has gotten as low as -3 in the market as we look ahead to Sunday’s game. Bettors do not seem confident in Baker Mayfield without Dave Canales or they’ve been impressed with Jayden Daniels. It could just be a combination of both. I think bettors are also generally low on the NFC South teams not based in Atlanta. Keep close tabs on the line as we wait to see if 3 is a point of resistance or if the markets just can’t buy a TB bet.

Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns (-2.5, 42)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

Perception and reality are the two concepts behind this line. The perception of Dallas is that it has been an offseason with nothing to celebrate. The Cowboys have had PR nightmare after PR nightmare with Jerry Jones, Dak Prescott, and CeeDee Lamb. The Browns, though, still have Deshaun Watson at QB and he won’t have played in over 300 days when this game kicks off. I’m surprised to see Cleveland money here. I’m not surprised to see Under money, as the Browns have offensive line issues and the never-ending Watson issue. Plus, Jim Schwartz’s defense was pretty good last year. I will be even more shocked if we get to 3 on this game.

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-3.5, 51)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

There hasn’t really been any notable line moves one way or another on this game, but it’s a standalone game on Sunday Night Football, so I thought I’d mention it. The few sportsbooks that opened 3 on this one moved to 3.5 quickly and other books simply took that number and ran with it. This game is dripping with storylines, from Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff against their former teams to the playoff revenge angle after the Lions won 24-23 in the Wild Card Round last season.

New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 43.5)
Monday, 8:20 p.m. ET

Monday Night Football! It’s good to see it again. The Jets have taken one-sided money throughout the summer in this one, as the 49ers have gone from as high as -6 down to mostly -3.5 with extra juice on the underdog. Nobody has ventured down to 3 as of yet. Perhaps that happens during the week, as any book that does so will show that they are looking for some San Francisco money to balance things out. Being Monday Night Football, it will be a high-handle game like always, but the excitement of Week 1 is likely to draw more bets than normal, giving us a good idea of where all types of bettors stand on these two teams.

will update later today
GL