Washington (62-78) @ Pittsburgh (66-74)
— Herz is 0-3,, 3.80 in his last four starts.
— Washington is 2-9 in his last 11 starts.
— under 6-2 last 8 starts
— allowed run in first inning: 4-15
— record in first 5 innings: 5-8-2
— He hasn’t pitched against Pittsburgh

— Parker is 1-2, 3.71 in his last three starts.
— Washington is 5-8 in his last 13 starts.
— under 4-2 last six starts
— allowed run in first inning: 7-25
— record in first 5 innings: 9-14-2
— He hasn’t pitched against Pittsburgh

— Nationals are 4-8 in last 12 games.
— They’re 30-41 on road.
— under 13-5 last 18 games
— scored run in first inning: 27-140
— record in first 5 innings: 56-69-15
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.1-4-x

— Ortiz is 1-0, 0.00 in his last two starts (12 IP).
— Pittsburgh is 5-6 in his starts.
— under 10-1
— allowed run in first inning: 4-11
— record in first 5 innings: 5-4-2
— This is his first start against Washington

— Keller is 1-4, 7.82 in his last five starts.
— Pittsburgh is 14-6 in his last 20 starts.
— over 8-4 last 12
— allowed run in first inning: 7-27
— record in first 5 innings: 11-12-4
— He is 1-2, 5.57 in four starts vs Washington

— Pirates are 4-2 in last six games.
— They’re 33-36 at home.
— over 9-4 last dozen games
— scored run in first inning: 27-140
— record in first 5 innings: 56-61-23
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5-4-x

Colorado (53-89) @ Milwaukee (81-60)
— Blach is 0-3, 13.94 in his last three starts.
— Colorado is 1-5 in his last six starts.
— under 5-1 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 8-11
— record in first 5 innings: 3-8
— He is 0-1, 5.40 in 4 games (one start) vs Milwaukee.

— Rockies are 6-10 in their last 16 games.
— They’re 21-52 on road.
— under 6-1 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 35-142
— record in first 5 innings: 49-72-21
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-1-3

— Myers is 0-0, 5.31 in his last four starts.
— Brewers are 3-7 in his last 10 starts.
— over 3-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 8-20
— record in first 5 innings: 6-9-5
— He gave up four runs in 6 IP at Colorado July 4th.

— Brewers lost their last three games.
— They’re 41-28 at home.
— over 8-6 last fourteen games
— scored run in first inning: 37-141
— record in first 5 innings: 66-54-21
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5-x-3

Cincinnati (68-74) @ NY Mets (77-64)
— bullpen game

— Reds won four of last five games.
— They’re 32-35 on road.
— over 6-2 last eight road games
— scored run in first inning: 38-142
— record in first 5 innings: 62-58-22
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.1-2.2-4.2

— Quintana is 1-0, 1.59 in his last two starts.
— Mets are 1-5 in his last six starts.
— under 4-2 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 9-27
— record in first 5 innings: 11-11-5
— He is 5-4, 2.93 in 14 starts vs Cincinnati.

— New York is 16-6 in its last 22 games.
— Mets are 39-33 at home.
— over 3-0 last three games
— scored run in first inning: 36-141
— record in first 5 innings: 66-54-21
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-5-3.1

Philadelphia (85-56) @ Miami (52-89)
— Nola is 1-0, 1.44 in his last four starts.
— Phillies are 19-9 in his starts.
— under 4-0 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 6-28
— record in first 5 innings: 17-7-4
— He is 5-11, 3.60 in 24 starts vs Miami.

— Phillies are 11-2 in their last 13 games.
— They’re 38-31 on road.
— under 4-2 last six games
— scored run in first inning: 51-141
— record in first 5 innings: 77-51-13
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-4-3

— bullpen game

— Marlins split their last 12 games.
— Miami is 26-47 at home.
— over 15-6 last 21 home games.
— scored run in first inning: 32-141
— record in first 5 innings: 46-78-17
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-3.2-7

San Francisco (69-73) @ San Diego (81-62)
— Webb is 1-1, 4.05 in his last four starts.
— Giants are 5-2 in his last seven starts.
— over 3-0 last three
— allowed run in first inning: 9-29
— record in first 5 innings: 14-10-5
— He is 0-0, 2.77 in two starts vs San Diego TY.

— Giants are 4-10 in their last 14 games.
— Giants are 29-41 on road.
— under 6-3 last nine road games
— scored run in first inning: 35-142
— record in first 5 innings: 56-62-24
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 6-8-3.2

— Cease is 1-1, 5.40 in his last four starts.
— San Diego is 8-2 in his last 10 starts.
— over 4-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 12-29
— record in first 5 innings: 14-12-3
— He is 0-1, 4.22 in two starts vs San Francisco TY.

— Padres are 12-9 in their last 21 games.
— They’re 40-33 at home.
— under 6-2 last eight games.
— scored run in first inning: 41-143
— record in first 5 innings: 63-61-19
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 6.1-2.2-3

Tampa Bay (69-72) @ Baltimore (82-60)
— Pepiot is 1-1,, 5.31 in his last four starts.
— Rays are 11-10 in his starts.
— under 5-3 last eight
— allowed run in first inning: 8-21
— record in first 5 innings: 9-11-1
— He gave up four runs in 6 IP, in his one start vs Baltimore.

— Tampa Bay is 5-9 in its last 14 games.
— Rays are 32-34 on road.
— under 4-2 last six games.
— scored run in first inning: 35-141
— record in first 5 innings: 47-74-20
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 9-2-2

— Eflin is 5-0, 1,95 in five starts for Baltimore.
— Orioles are 5-0 in his starts.
— over 3-0 last three
— allowed run in first inning: 0-5
— record in first 5 innings: 5-0
— He is 1-1, 2.51 in two starts vs Tampa Bay.
— He made 50 starts for the Rays the last two years,

— Baltimore is 5-2 in its last seven games.
— Orioles are 42-31 at home.
— over 4-2 last five games
— scored run in first inning: 40-142
— record in first 5 innings: 73-53-16
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 1.2-4.2-3

White Sox (32-110) @ Boston (71-70)
— Crochet is 0-1, 3.18 in his last four starts.
— They’re limiting him to 60-65 pitches.
— White Sox are 4-11 in his last 15 starts.
— over 5-2 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 4-28
— record in first 5 innings: 8-13-7
— He is 1-1, 2.00 in five games (1 start) vs Boston.

— White Sox lost 13 of their last 14 games.
— Chicago is 14-56 on road.
— over 3-1 last four games
— scored run in first inning: 30-142
— record in first 5 innings: 50-70-22
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.1-x-2

— bullpen game

— Red Sox are 4-11 in last 15 games.
— They’re 40-32 at home.
— under 6-2 last eight home games
— scored run in first inning: 46-141
— record in first 5 innings: 69-53-19
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-x-3

Minnesota (76-65) @ Kansas City (77-65)
— Ober is 1-1, 5.19 in his last five starts
— Twins are 6-2 in his last eight starts.
— under 6-3 last nine
— allowed run in first inning: 9-26
— record in first 5 innings: 14-10-2
— He is 0-2, 19.91 in two starts vs Kansas City TY.

— Twins split their last eight games.
— Twins are 37-35 on road.
— under 9-4 last 13 games.
— scored run in first inning: 39-141
— record in first 5 innings: 63-62-16
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5-2.1-3

— Marsh is 0-2, 6.52 in his last four starts.
— Royals are 7-4 in his last 11 starts.
— over 6-1 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 9-21
— record in first 5 innings: 9-10-2
— He is 0-2, 5.25 in two starts vs Minnesota.

— Royals lost seven of last nine games.
— Royals are 43-30 at home.
— under 5-2 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 37-142
— record in first 5 innings: 68-53-21
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-x-3

LA Angels (59-82) @ Texas (68-74)
— Anderson is 1-1, 6.60 in his last three starts.
— Angels are 6-4 in his last ten starts.
— over 5-0 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 8-27
— record in first 5 innings: 9-14-4
— He is 2-0, 3.09 in seven starts vs Texas

— Angels are 5-3 in their last eight games.
— They’re 29-40 on road.
— under 8-2 last ten games
— scored run in first inning: 30-141
— record in first 5 innings: 48-78-15
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2.1-2-3

— Leiter is 0-2, 13.26 in five starts.
— Texas is 3-2 in those starts, scoring 32 runs.
— over 4-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-5
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2-2
— He hasn’t pitched against the Angels

— Rangers are 12-6 in last 18 games.
— Texas is 39-34 at home.
— over 5-3 last eight games
— scored run in first inning: 44-142
— record in first 5 innings: 57-62-23
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-3-6.1

Detroit (71-71) @ Oakland (62-80)
— bullpen game

— Detroit is 3-5 in its last eight games.
— Tigers are 36-37 on road.
— under 7-3 last ten games
— scored run in first inning: 41-142
— record in first 5 innings: 57-62-23
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4.1-3.2-6

— Oakland hasn’t named a starter.

— A’s are 4-5 in last nine games.
— Oakland is 36-37 at home.
— over 8-2 last ten games
— scored run in first inning: 34-142
— record in first 5 innings: 53-78-11
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-5-7.2

Bronx (81-60) @ Cubs (72-69)
— Schmidt is 0-2, 3.60 in his last two starts.
— His last start was May 26th.
— New York is 8-3 in his starts.
— under 3-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 2-11
— record in first 5 innings: 7-2-2
— This is his first start against the Cubs.

— New York is 6-7 in its last 13 games.
— They’re 45-29 on road.
— over 6-2 last eight games
— scored run in first inning: 49-141
— record in first 5 innings: 69-56-16
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4.1-x-3

— Assad is 2-1, 3.37 in his last three starts.
— Chicago is 6-2 in his last eight starts.
— under 4-0 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 7-25
— record in first 5 innings: 13-9-3
— This is his first start against New York.

— Cubs are 10-4 in their last 14 games.
— They’re 37-32 at home.
— over 11-4 last 15 games
— scored run in first inning: 32-141
— record in first 5 innings: 61-59-21
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-x-4

Arizona (79-63) @ Houston (76-65)
— Rodriguez is 2-1, 5.19 in five starts.
— Arizona is 4-1 in his starts.
— over 3-2
— allowed run in first inning: 0-5
— record in first 5 innings: 2-2-1
— He is 1-6, 7.38 in ten starts vs Houston.

— Arizona is 3-6 in its last nine games.
— Diamondbacks are 40-32 on road.
— over 30-8 last 38 games
— scored run in first inning: 49-142
— record in first 5 innings: 67-52-23
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-1-3.1

— Kikuchi is 3.09 in six starts for Houston.
— Astros are 6-0 in his starts.
— under 3-3
— allowed run in first inning: 2-6
— record in first 5 innings: 2-0-4
— He is 0-1, 5.75 in four starts vs Arizona

— Houston lost three of last four games.
— Astros are 40-29 at home.
— under 21-14 last 35 games
— scored run in first inning: 41-141
— record in first 5 innings: 66-54-21
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 7.2-2-2

Toronto (67-75) @ Atlanta (77-64)
— Berrios is 5-0, 1.82 in his last five starts.
— Blue Jays are 14-6 in his last 20 starts.
— over 11-3 last 14 starts
— allowed run in first inning: 6-28
— record in first 5 innings: 12-13-3
— He is 0-1, 8.74 in two starts vs Atlanta.

— Toronto is 2-7 in its last nine games.
— Blue Jays are 33-40 on road.
— under 7-2 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 40-142
— record in first 5 innings: 62-62-18
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.2-3-2

— Schwellenbach is 1-1, 2.86 in his last four starts.
— Atlanta is 7-9 in his starts.
— under 13-3
— allowed run in first inning: 2-16
— record in first 5 innings: 7-8-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Toronto.

— Braves are 10-5 in last 15 games.
— They’re 39-29 at home.
— under 10-0 last ten home games
— scored run in first inning: 40-141
— record in first 5 innings: 68-52-21
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-3-2

Seattle (72-70) @ St Louis (71-70)
— Gilbert is 0-2, 6.26 in his last four starts.
— Seattle is 1-8 in his last nine starts.
— over 3-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 3-28
— record in first 5 innings: 10-12-6
— He hasn’t pitched against St Louis.

— Seattle is 3-4 in its last seven games.
— Mariners are 31-42 on road.
— over 6-3 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 40-142
— record in first 5 innings: 65-57-20
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-4-3

— Gibson is 1-1, 5.40 in his last three starts.
— Cardinals are 3-5 in his last eight starts.
— over 16-3 last 19
— allowed run in first inning: 8-26
— record in first 5 innings: 10-13-3
— He is 4-6, 4.92 in 15 starts vs Seattle.

— Cardinals are 10-6 in last 16 games.
— They’re 36-33 at home.
— over 7-4 last eleven games
— scored run in first inning: 32-141
— record in first 5 innings: 55-64-21
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 7.1-2-4.1

Cleveland (81-60) @ Los Angeles (84-57)
— Boyd is 1-1, 2.35 in four starts.
— Cleveland is 3-1 in his starts.
— under 3-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-4
— record in first 5 innings: 1-1-2
— This is his first start against the Dodgers.

— Cleveland is 3-1 in its last four games.
— Guardians are 38-35 on road.
— under 7-4 last 11 games
— scored run in first inning: 37-141
— record in first 5 innings: 62-61-18
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-x-3

— Dodgers haven’t named a starter.

— Dodgers are 6-3 in their last nine games.
— Dodgers are 45-25 at home.
— over 6-3 last nine games.
— scored run in first inning: 48-141
— record in first 5 innings: 71-53-17
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-x-3

Umpires
— Wsh-Pitt— Over is 15-7 in Hudson games.
Under is 17-11 in Wendelstedt games
— Cin-NY— Under is 16-11 in DeJesus games.
— Colo-Milw— Home favorites are 8-13 in Clemons games.
— Phil-Mia— Home underdogs are 4-4 in Segal games.
— SF-SD— Under is 16-9 in Gonzalez games.

— TB-Balt— Over is 20-4 in Dreckman games.
— Chi-Bos— Home favorites are 8-5 in Muchlinski games.
— LAA-Tex— Over is 13-9 in Barber games.
— Det-A’s— Over is 9-5 in Guccione games.
— Minn-KC— Under is 12-5 in Conroy games.

— NYY-Chi— Home underdogs are 2-5 in Carlson games.
— Tor-Atl— Home favorites are 9-6 in Moore games.
— Az-Hat— Under is 15-10 in Marquez games.
— Sea-StL— Favorites are 9-5 in Little games.
— Clev-LA— Under is 15-10 in Tosi games.

We are going to take a bit of a risk on Saturday and invest in Josι Berrνos…on the road

Listen, I know Berrνos is a far worse pitcher away from Toronto. The veteran right-hander carries a 4.34 ERA and 5.63 FIP on the road compared to a 2.81 ERA and 3.94 FIP at home.

However, he boasts a nearly identical strikeout rate split (19.1% vs 19.4%), with a very slight edge away from home.

That is where we want to concentrate our efforts on Saturday when Berrνos travels to Atlanta to take on a Braves lineup sporting a 24.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season.

Berrνos has managed to eclipse his posted strikeout line of 4.5 in each of his previous eight outings, averaging 5.9 K/G during that stretch.

If we can get at least five innings out of the 30-year-old, we should be is decent shape to hit the Over.

MLB Best Bet: Josι Berrνos Over 4.5 K (-106)

Trend: Under the total is 9-1 (90%, +7.85 units) in the last 10 games of CWS-BOS in Boston (total runs in these games are at 5.6 RPG)
– The ROI on this trend is 78.5%
System Matches: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

Trend: Logan Webb is 0-5 (-5.37 units) on the road vs. San Diego in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (+124 at SD)

(951) CINCINNATI (68-74) at (952) NEW YORK-NL (77-64)
Trend: Jose Quintana is 2-7 (-10.51 units) as a day game large favorite (-165 or more) in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE NY METS (*if they become a favorite in this line range, -155 currently)

(953) PHILADELPHIA (85-56) at (954) MIAMI (52-89)
Trend: PHI is 6-7 (-7.80 units) as heavy road favorite (-180 or higher) with starter Aaron Nola in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-245 at MIA)

(955) WASHINGTON (62-78) at (956) PITTSBURGH (66-74) (DH Game #2)
Trend: PIT is 10-16 (-4.78 units) vs. NL East teams with starter Mitch Keller in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH GAME 2 (-142 vs. WSH)

(959) SAN FRANCISCO (69-73) at (960) SAN DIEGO (81-62)
Trend: Logan Webb is 0-5 (-5.37 units) on the road vs San Diego in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (+124 at SD)

(961) TAMPA BAY (69-72) at (962) BALTIMORE (82-60)
Trend: Zach Eflin is 17-7 (+8.03 units) vs. AL East opponents since 2020
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-185 vs. TB)

(965) LOS ANGELES-AL (59-82) at (966) TEXAS (68-74)
Trend: Tyler Anderson is 19-7 (+15.66 units) vs AL West teams in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY LA ANGELS (+120 at TEX)

(967) MINNESOTA (76-65) at (968) KANSAS CITY (77-65)
Trend: MIN is 3-6 (-3.70 units) in SEPT/OCT ROAD starts for Bailey Ober in the last three seasons
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-135 at KC)

(979) CLEVELAND (81-60) at (980) LOS ANGELES-NL (84-57)
Trend: CLE is 2-10 (-8.66 units) against teams with a win pct of 55% or higher by starter Gavin Williams in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+130 at LAD)