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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Ravens @ Chiefs (-3)
Last 8 years, Baltimore is 7-1 SU/ATS in Week 1
Since 2015, Ravens are 20-9-2 ATS as a road underdog.
QB Jackson is 60-23 as an NFL starter.
Since 2008, Ravens are 11-5 ATS in their road opener.
Last three years, under is 15-10 in Baltimore’s road games.
Ravens have a first-time defensive coordinator.
Last 7 years, Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in Week 1.
Last four years, under is 21-11-1 in games at Arrowhead.
QB Mahomes is 89-25 as an NFL starter.
Last 3 years, Kansas City is 0-3 ATS in its home opener.
Last 21 years, defending Super Bowl champ is 11-7-3 ATS in Week 1 the next three years, 0-3 the last three years.
Chiefs won five of last six meetings.
Chiefs won 17-10 in Baltimore, in LY’s playoffs.
Ravens are 3-2 in Arrowhead, losing last two visits.
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09-03-24 11:18 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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In last year’s AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs earned a 17-10 win over the Ravens. Kansas City was a 4.5-point underdog in that game, but the Chiefs escaped with the victory and went on to win the Super Bowl. A lot of people were hesitant to believe in Kansas City after an up-and-down regular season, and the Ravens looked like the team to beat in the AFC for most of the year. However, Kansas City had slowly started to transform into an elite defensive team throughout the course of last season, and the team didn’t need Patrick Mahomes and the offense to be as explosive as previous seasons. Instead, the Chiefs were able to turn into a ball-control offense, and they were ultimately unbeatable the rest of the way.
This season, Kansas City should once again be one of the best defenses in football. After finishing last year sixth in the NFL in EPA per play allowed, the Chiefs were able to lock up All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones. Of course, Kansas City did lose linebacker Willie Gay Jr. and corner L’Jarius Sneed, but defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo should be able to overcome that. The Chiefs like what they have at both positions. And when looking at this specific matchup, neither loss should hurt the unit. If Kansas City is a little shaky in the secondary to start the year, Lamar Jackson and this Ravens offense likely won’t be able to exploit that — especially at Arrowhead Stadium. Jackson has improved significantly as a passer in recent seasons, but he looked miserable against Kansas City in the playoffs. There’s no reason to expect him to light the Chiefs up this time around.
The Chiefs offense should also look pretty good here. While Kansas City definitely leaned a little heavier on the run in the second half of last season, the team has some more weapons around Mahomes now. Travis Kelce is still one of the best over-the-middle options in football, Rashee Rice still hasn’t been suspended and the team added an absolute burner in first-round pick Xavier Worthy. The Texas product ran a 4.21 in his 40-yard dash as the combine. He’s going to really open up this offense in a big way, and Baltimore is lucky that Hollywood Brown will miss this game with a shoulder injury.
Baltimore’s defense is also dealing with a pretty big question mark entering this season. Mike Macdonald was viewed as one of the best defensive coordinators in the league last year, but he left to take the head coaching job in Seattle. Zach Orr is expected to fill in admirably for John Harbaugh’s team, but making the right calls in a tough road environment will be quite the test. The Ravens also lost some key pieces from last year’s defense, including Jadeveon Clowney and Patrick Queen. Those two will be missed in a game like this.
It’s also worth noting that the Chiefs are 9-2 straight-up and 7-4 against the spread in Week 1 since Andy Reid became the head coach in Kansas City. He generally has his team fired up and ready to go for the opener, and this is a locked-in group as the Chiefs look to three-peat.
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09-04-24 08:38 AM |
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