12 p.m. ET: Kansas State (-10, 49) at Tulane

Kansas State (1-0, ranked 18th) just rolled UT Martin 41-6 in their season opener but failed to cover as 36-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Tulane (1-0) just destroyed Southeast Louisiana 52-0, easily covering as 27-point home favorites. This line opened with Kansas State listed as a 10-point road favorite. The public sees an easy blowout win and cover with Kansas State and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with the Wildcats. However, despite receiving 78% of spread bets we’ve seen Kansas State remain frozen at -10. Some shops have even dipped down briefly to -9.5. The Wildcats have never risen to -10.5. Normally, if a team is receiving such lopsided support you would see them move from -10 to -11 or higher. The fact that this line hasn’t budged despite overwhelming support signals a sharp line freeze on Tulane at the key number of +10, with sportsbooks reluctant to hand out the hook to brave Green Wave backers. Tulane is only receiving 22% of spread bets, making the Green Wave one of the top contrarian plays of the week. Tulane has buy-low, sell-high value as an unranked home dog vs a ranked opponent. The Green Wave enjoy a rest advantage as well, having played on Thursday while Kansas State played on Saturday. Wiseguys have also leaned under, dropping the total from 50 to 49. The under is receiving only 23% of bets but 45% of money, a sharp contarian bet discrepancy.

12 p.m. ET: Arkansas at Oklahoma State (-7.5, 63)

Arkansas (1-0) obliterated Arkansas-Pine Bluff 70-0 in their season opener, easily covering as 50.5-point home favorites. Similarly, Oklahoma State (1-0, ranked 17th) just took down South Dakota State 44-20, covering as 13.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Oklahoma State listed as a 9.5-point home favorite. The public is laying the points with Oklahoma State, who is at home and ranked. However, despite receiving 60% of spread bets we’ve seen the Cowboys fall from -9.5 to -7.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Arkansas, with pros grabbing the points with the road dog. Arkansas has notable contrarian value, receiving only 40% of spread bets in a heavily bet, nationally televised game. Arkansas has buy-low, sell-high value as an unranked road dog vs a ranked opponent. The Razorbacks enjoy a two-day rest advantage, having played on Thursday while the Cowboys played on Saturday. Sharps have also hit the over, driving the total up from 61 to 63. The over is receiving 55% of bets but 86% of dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” wiseguy bet split.

2 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (-2, 59.5)

Pittsburgh (1-0) just crushed Kent State 55-24 in their season opener, covering as 23.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Cincinnati (1-0) just brushed aside Towson 38-20 but failed to cover as 34.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public sees two evenly matched teams and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this split ticket count we’ve seen the line move in favor of Pittsburgh +2.5 to +2. Some shops are even down to Panthers +1.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even. So, based upon the line move we can infer that smart money is leaning toward the Panthers plus the points. Pittsburgh is receiving 54% of spread bets but 69% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Short road dogs +4 or less are 561-485 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2012. The total has ticked up slightly from 59 to 59.5. This half-point upward adjustment is notable because only 45% of bets but 88% of money is taking the over, a sharp contrarian bet split.

3:30 p.m. ET: Iowa State at Iowa (-2.5, 35.5)

Iowa State (1-0) turned aside North Dakota 21-3 in their season opener but failed to cover as 30-point home favorites. On the other hand, Iowa (1-0, ranked 25th) just demolished Illinois State 40-0, easily covering as 22-point home favorites. This line opened with Iowa listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public is absolutely hammering the Hawkeyes, with 88% of spread bets laying the short chalk at home. However, every time this line rises to Iowa -3 we’ve seen sharp buyback on Iowa State at the key number of +3, dropping the line back down to Iowa -2.5. Essentially, we are seeing a sharp line freeze on Iowa State, as the line hasn’t budged off the opener despite overwhelming public support for the Hawkeyes. Iowa State is only receiving 12% of spread bets, making the Cyclones one of the top contrarian plays of the week in a nationally televised, heavily bet game. Iowa State has buy-low, sell-high value as an unranked road dog against a ranked opponent. The Cyclones also have correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game, with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover. Wiseguys have hit the under, dropping the total from 37 to 35.5. The under is receiving 58% of bets but 75% of dollars, a notable “low bets higher dollars” sharp under split.

these have moved even more
GL