NRFI -130 (Play to -140)

Starting Pitchers: Griffin Canning vs. Luis Castillo

Another day, another Mariners NRFI. We've hit 11 of the last 12 we've taken, which is clearly good enough even at the somewhat heavy juice we have to pay.

All the reasons from yesterday remain true, as the Mariners' rotation is much better than their lineup and they play in the toughest park in baseball to score runs in. This one is slightly scary due to how bad Griffin Canning has been this year, but we're only asking for three outs from him.

On the other side, Luis Castillo has a 2.54 ERA his first time through the order and is taking on an Angels team that ranks 26th in wRC+ against righties.

NRFI -150 (Play to -150)

Starting Pitchers: Jack Flaherty vs. Tanner Bibee

I have this game projected for the lowest chance of a first inning run on the board, thanks to even better starting pitching than in the Angels/Mariners game — enough to offset the slightly better offenses involved.

Both Jack Flaherty and Tanner Bibee have first-time-through-the-order ERAs in the 2.6 range, and both offenses are slightly below average against right-handed pitching.

I don't love paying the heavy juice here, so this one would make sense as a parlay piece. However, by the numbers, it's still projecting as a considerable edge at the -150 line available on DraftKings.