6:40 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians (-145, 7)

These AL Central opponents have split the first two games of this four-game series. The Tigers (50-52) took the opener 8-2, taking care of business as -135 road favorites. Then the Guardians (60-40) bounced back with a 5-4 win yesterday, cashing as -125 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Tigers hand the ball to righty Jack Flaherty (7-5, 3.13 ERA) and the Guardians counter with fellow righty Tanner Bibee (8-4, 3.58 ERA). This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -135 home favorite and Detroit a +120 road dog. Sharps have laid the modest chalk with the Guardians at home, driving Cleveland up from -135 to -145. The Guardians are receiving 70% of moneyline bets, indicating public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a 10-cent steam move in their favor. Favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more against teams who missed the playoffs the previous year are 175-108 (62%) with a 1% ROI this season. The Guardians are 44-20 (69%) with a 20% ROI as a favorite this season, the best chalk record in MLB. Cleveland has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. The Guardians are 32-14 at home. The Tigers are 26-28 on the road. Cleveland has the better bats, hitting .243 with 469 runs scored compared to Detroit hitting .234 with 441 runs scored.

6:45 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals (-110, 8.5)

The Padres (53-50) took last night’s series opener 4-0, cashing as +105 road dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Padres start righty Matt Waldron (5-9, 3.59 ERA) and the Nationals (47-54) turn to lefty Mitchell Parker (5-5, 3.90 ERA). This line opened with San Diego listed as a -120 road favorite and Washington a +110 home dog. The public is rushing to the window to lay the short chalk with the Padres. However, despite 77% of bets backing San Diego we’ve seen this line fall away from the Padres (-120 to +100) and toward the Nationals (+110 to -110). Some shops are even approaching Nationals -115. Essentially, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement on Washington, as the line has flipped in the Nats’ favor despite being the unpopular side. Washington is only receiving 23% of moneyline bets, making them one of the top contrarian plays of the day. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 334-218 (61%) with a 3% ROI this season. Washington has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the team who is favored to win. The Nats also have fishy buy-low value as a favorite who is below .500 playing a sell-high opponent who is above .500. The Padres are 0-4 in Waldron’s last four starts. Parker has a 2.82 ERA at home compared to 4.91 on the road. The Padres are only hitting .237 against lefties this season, ranking 21st in MLB.

8:10 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royals (-120, 9)

This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series. The Royals (56-46) took the opener 10-4, cruising as -145 home favorites. Then the Diamondbacks (52-50) bounced back with a 6-2 win yesterday, cashing as +105 road dogs. In tonight’s series finale, the Diamondbacks send out righty Ryne Nelson (7-6, 4.78 ERA) and the Royals go with fellow righty Michael Wacha (7-6, 3.55 ERA). This line opened with Kansas City listed as a -130 home favorite and Arizona a +120 road dog. The public is all over the Royals laying short chalk at home. However, despite receiving 73% of moneyline bets we’ve seen Kansas City fall from -130 to -120. This signals smart money jumping on Arizona at a plus money payout, triggering sharp reverse line movement in their favor (+120 to +110) despite being the unpopular side. Arizona has correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (9), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities. The Snakes have a slight edge on offense, hitting .252 with 501 runs scored compared to the Royals hitting .249 with 471 runs scored. Arizona is 3-0 in Nelson’s last three starts. He has a 2.22 ERA in four July starts, allowing only 6 earned runs in 24.1 innings pitched.