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msudogs
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MLB Lagniappe 7/24

St Louis (53-48) @ Pittsburgh (51-50)
— Liberatore is 1-1, 5.03 in five starts.
— His last start was June 26th.
— St Louis is 2-3 in his starts.
— under 3-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-5
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2-2
— He is 1-1, 4.76 in three starts vs Pittsburgh

— Cardinals are 11-7 in their last 18 games.
— They’re 27-26 on road.
— under 4-1 last five games
— scored run in first inning: 21-101
— record in first 5 innings: 38-46-17
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-2-4

— Perez is 0-2, 8.24 in his last four starts.
— Pittsburgh is 3-10 in his last 13 starts.
— under 5-1 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 4-15
— record in first 5 innings: 4-7-4
— He is 1-0, 2.36 in four starts vs St Louis.

— Pirates are 9-3 in their last 12 games.
— They’re 25-26 at home.
— under 7-2 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 19-101
— record in first 5 innings: 42-39-20
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4.1-2-0.2

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San Diego (53-50) @ Washington (47-54)
— Waldron is 0-3, 4.63 in his last four starts.
— San Diego is 3-6 in his last nine starts.
— under 14-5-1
— allowed run in first inning: 8-20
— record in first 5 innings: 5-12-3
— He is 0-1, 3.38 in two starts vs Washington.

— Padres won their last three games.
— They’re 27-22 on road.
— under 6-1 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 29-103
— record in first 5 innings: 43-45-15
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-x-3

— Parker is 0-2, 6.75 in his last four starts.
— Washington is 4-3 in his home starts.
— under 3-1 last four home starts
— allowed run in first inning: 5-17
— record in first 5 innings: 6-9-2
— He hasn’t pitched against San Diego

— Nationals are 5-2 in their last seven games.
— They’re 23-25 at home.
— over 8-6 last 14 games
— scored run in first inning: 16-101
— record in first 5 innings: 41-51-9
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-x-4

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Cincinnati (48-53) @ Atlanta (54-45)
— Montas is 1-3, 5.96 in his last four starts.
— Cincinnati is 3-13 in his last 16 starts.
— over 3-0 last three
— allowed run in first inning: 4-18
— record in first 5 innings: 5-12-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Atlanta

— bullpen game

— Reds lost four of their last five games.
— They’re 23-25 on road.
— over 7-3 last ten games
— scored run in first inning: 27-101
— record in first 5 innings: 45-43-13
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 1.1-2-x

— Sale is 5-1, 2.04 in his last six starts.
— Atlanta is 13-5 in his starts.
— under 13-4
— allowed run in first inning: 8-18
— record in first 5 innings: 15-3
— He gave up a run in 3.2 IP, in his one start vs Cincinnati

— Winans gave up 7 runs in 5 IP in his one ‘24 start, April 11.
— Atlanta is 0-1 in his starts.
— over 1-0
— allowed run in first inning: 1-1
— record in first 5 innings: 0-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Cincinnati.

— Braves are 3-6 in their last nine games.
— They’re 30-20 at home.
— under 19-6 last 25 games
— scored run in first inning: 27-99
— record in first 5 innings: 46-39-14
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-3-x

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Milwaukee (58-43) @ Cubs (49-54)
— Milwaukee hasn’t named a starter.

— Brewers won four of last five games.
— They’re 29-26 on road.
— over 7-4 last 11 games
— scored run in first inning: 26-100
— record in first 5 innings: 48-40-13
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4.2-2.2-4

— Steele is 2-1, 2.61 in his last three starts.
— Chicago is 4-2 in his last six starts.
— under 6-2 last eight starts
— allowed run in first inning: 1-15
— record in first 5 innings: 4-5-6
— He is 2-2, 2.21 in 13 starts vs Milwaukee.

— Cubs are 10-6 in their last 16 games.
— They’re 27-24 at home.
— under 8-0 last eight home games
— scored run in first inning: 21-103
— record in first 5 innings: 40-46-17
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-5.2-1.2

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San Francisco (48-54) @ Los Angeles (61-41)
— Robbie Ray is making his 2024 debut.
— He started one game for Seattle LY, then got hurt.
— In his career, he is 74-71, 3.96 in 222 starts.
— He is 8-6, 3.39 in 21 starts against the Dodgers

— San Francisco is 4-9 in its last 13 games.
— Giants are 20-32 on road.
— under 7-0 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 22-102
— record in first 5 innings: 39-47-16
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-2-4.1

— Glasnow is 2-0, 4.70 in his last four starts.
— Dodgers are 12-6 in his starts.
— over 4-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 3-18
— record in first 5 innings: 7-9-2
— He is 3-0, 3.52 in four starts against the Giants

— Dodgers won their last five games.
— Dodgers are 33-21 at home.
— over 8-4 last 12 home games.
— scored run in first inning: 36-102
— record in first 5 innings: 50-41-11
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-3.2-4

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Tampa Bay (51-50) @ Toronto (45-55)
— Eflin is 2-3, 5.10 in his last five starts.
— Rays are 8-3 in his last 11 starts.
— under 4-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 4-18
— record in first 5 innings: 8-8-2
— He is 2-3, 6.35 in six starts vs Toronto.

— Tampa Bay is 7-4 in its last 11 games.
— Rays are 24-23 on road.
— over 4-1 last five games.
— scored run in first inning: 26-101
— record in first 5 innings: 37-49-15
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5.1-2.1-9

— Rodriguez is 1-1, 1.62 in his last three starts.
— Toronto is 4-4 in his starts.
— under 5-3
— allowed run in first inning: 2-8
— record in first 5 innings: 4-4
— He hasn’t pitched against Tampa Bay.

— Toronto split its last 12 games.
— Blue Jays are 22-27 at home.
— over 20-5 last 25 games
— scored run in first inning: 21-100
— record in first 5 innings: 41-46-13
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2.1-x-4.1

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Detroit (50-52) @ Cleveland (60-39)
— Flaherty is 6-1, 2.08 in his last seven starts.
— Detroit is 7-3 in his road starts.
— over 6-4 last 10
— allowed run in first inning: 4-17
— record in first 5 innings: 9-5-3
— He is 1-2, 2.89 in five starts vs Cleveland.

— Detroit is 11-4 in its last 15 games.
— Tigers are 26-28 on road.
— over 11-2 last 13 road games
— scored run in first inning: 31-102
— record in first 5 innings: 42-43-17
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2.2-2-8

— Bibee is 2-2, 3.86 in his last four starts.
— Cleveland is 15-5 in his starts.
— under 10-5 last 15
— allowed run in first inning: 6-20
— record in first 5 innings: 12-5-3
— He is 0-3, 6.86 in four starts vs Detroit.

— Cleveland lost eight of last 12 games.
— Guardians are 11-5 in last 16 home games.
— under 6-2 last eight games
— scored run in first inning: 26-100
— record in first 5 innings: 47-40-13
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.2-3.2-4.2

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White Sox (27-76) @ Texas (49-52)
— Flexen is 0-3, 6.67 in his last five starts.
— Chicago lost his last 13 starts.
— under 5-2 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 6-21
— record in first 5 innings: 6-10-5
— He is 6-0, 3.14 in seven starts vs Texas

— White Sox are 1-12 in last 13 games.
— Chicago is 10-42 on road.
— under 11-3 last 14 games
— scored run in first inning: 20-103
— record in first 5 innings: 42-47-14
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-3-4

— Eovaldi is 2-1, 3.12 in his last four starts.
— Texas is 8-4 in his last 12 starts.
— over 6-2 last eight starts
— allowed run in first inning: 5-17
— record in first 5 innings: 5-6-6
— He is 2-2, 5.67 in five starts vs Chicago.

— Rangers are 10-4 in last 14 games.
— They’re 27-23 at home.
— under 10-5 last 15 home games
— scored run in first inning: 33-101
— record in first 5 innings: 43-41-17
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-5-1.1

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LA Angels (44-57) @ Seattle (54-49)
— Canning is 0-2, 8.50 in his last four starts.
— Angels are 3-6 in his last nine starts.
— under 7-3 last ten
— allowed run in first inning: 11-20
— record in first 5 innings: 7-12-1
— He is 2-2, 2.97 in six starts vs Seattle

— Angels are 7-3 in last ten games.
— They’re 22-28 on road.
— under 7-3 last ten road games
— scored run in first inning: 22-101
— record in first 5 innings: 33-58-10
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4.2-3.1-1.1

— Castillo is 2-1, 1.83 in his last three starts.
— Seattle is 6-2 in his last eight home starts.
— over 4-2 last six starts
— allowed run in first inning: 7-21
— record in first 5 innings: 8-12-1
— He is 2-0, 0.00 in two starts (13 IP) vs Anaheim TY.

— Seattle lost seven of last eight games.
— Mariners are 31-22 at home.
— under 6-1 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 27-103
— record in first 5 innings: 44-43-16
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.1-2-2.1

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Houston (51-50) @ Oakland (41-62)
— Brown is 3-1, 3.38 in his last four starts.
— Houston is 7-1 in his last eight starts.
— under 9-2 last 11 starts
— allowed run in first inning: 6-19
— record in first 5 innings: 11-7-1
— He is 2-0, 1.88 in four starts vs Oakland.

— Houston lost its last three games.
— Astros are 24-28 on road.
— under 5-2 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 32-101
— record in first 5 innings: 47-42-12
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2.1-2-4

— Sears is 3-0, 2.20 in his last three starts.
— Oakland won his four starts.
— under 7-3 last ten starts
— allowed run in first inning: 6-20
— record in first 5 innings: 9-10-1
— He is 1-0, 1.64 in two starts vs Houston TY.

— A’s are 11-6 in last 17 games.
— Oakland is 11-6 in last 17 home games.
— over 6-1 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 21-103
— record in first 5 innings: 38-60-5
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.1-2.1-4

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NY Mets (52-48) @ Bronx (60-43)
— Manaea is 1-1, 3.60 in his last four starts.
— Mets are 11-5 in his last 16 starts.
— under 5-3 last eight
— allowed run in first inning: 2-19
— record in first 5 innings: 9-6-4
— He is 2-3, 3.89 in seven starts vs New York.

— New York is 10-4 in its last 14 games.
— Mets are 26-22 on road.
— under 3-1 last four games
— scored run in first inning: 25-100
— record in first 5 innings: 43-40-17
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-4-4

— Cole is 3-0, 2.95 in his last four starts.
— New York is 4-2 in his starts.
— over 4-2
— allowed run in first inning: 2-6
— record in first 5 innings: 4-2
— He is 2-3, 6.64 in eight starts vs New York

— New York is 10-21 in its last 31 games.
— They’re 27-22 at home.
— over 19-9 last 28 games
— scored run in first inning: 33-103
— record in first 5 innings: 53-37-13
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.2-2-4

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Baltimore (60-40) @ Miami (36-65)
— bullpen game

— Baltimore won three of its last five games.
— Orioles are 30-18 on road.
— over 4-1 last five games
— scored run in first inning: 23-100
— record in first 5 innings: 53-36-11
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2.2-x-6

— Cabrera is 0-2, 9.88 in his last four starts.
— Marlins are 4-4 in his starts.
— over 7-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-8
— record in first 5 innings: 3-4-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Baltimore

— Marlins are 6-12 in their last 18 games.
— Miami is 21-33 at home.
— over 12-6 last 18 games.
— scored run in first inning: 22-101
— record in first 5 innings: 31-60-10
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4.1-4-4.1

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Philadelphia (64-37) @ Minnesota (55-45)
— Nola is 2-0, 4.24 in his last three starts.
— Phillies are 15-5 in his starts.
— over 5-0 last five road starts
— allowed run in first inning: 4-20
— record in first 5 innings: 14-3-2
— He gave up 8 runs in 3 IP, in his one start vs Minnesota.

— Phillies are 3-5 in their last eight games.
— They’re 27-21 on road.
— under 5-2 last seven road games
— scored run in first inning: 38-101
— record in first 5 innings: 62-30-9
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-2.2-2

— bullpen game

— Twins are 2-5 in their last seven games.
— Twins are 28-21 at home.
— over 9-2 last eleven home games.
— scored run in first inning: 26-100
— record in first 5 innings: 43-45-12
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-2-3

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Arizona (52-50) @ Kansas City (55-46)
— Nelson is 2-0, 2.33 in his last three starts.
— Arizona is 5-1 in his last six starts.
— over 3-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 1-16
— record in first 5 innings: 7-7-2
— He gave up 4 runs in 5 IP, in his one start vs Kansas City.

— Arizona is 11-6 in its last 17 games.
— Diamondbacks are 26-26 on road.
— over 12-6 last 18 games
— scored run in first inning: 32-102
— record in first 5 innings: 47-37-18
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2.1-5-4

— Wacha is 3-0, 2.50 in his last three starts.
— Kansas City is 7-3 in his last ten starts.
— under 4-1 last five starts
— allowed run in first inning: 3-17
— record in first 5 innings: 6-7-4
— He is 2-1, 4.58 in eight starts vs Arizona

— Royals won eight of last 11 games.
— Royals are 35-19 at home.
— under 12-4 last 16 home games
— scored run in first inning: 28-102
— record in first 5 innings: 47-40-15
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-3-4

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Boston (54-45) @ Colorado (37-65)
— Pivetta is 0-2, 3.47 in his last four starts.
— Boston is 8-7 in his starts.
— under 10-5
— allowed run in first inning: 4-15
— record in first 5 innings: 8-6-1
— He is 0-4, 13.85 in 4 games (3 starts) vs Colorado.

— Red Sox lost four of last five games.
— They’re 30-21 on road.
— under 8-4 last 12 games
— scored run in first inning: 31-100
— record in first 5 innings: 53-36-11
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-5.1-2

— Quantrill is 0-3, 6.37 in his last six starts.
— Colorado is 6-2 in his home starts.
— over 5-2 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 2-20
— record in first 5 innings: 8-8-4
— He is 0-1, 5.01 in four starts vs Boston.

— Rockies won four of last six games.
— They’re 23-29 at home.
— under 9-2 last eleven home games
— scored run in first inning: 27-102
— record in first 5 innings: 39-50-13
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-6.1-6.2

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Umpires
— SD-Wsh- Under is 13-8 in Wolcott games.
— StL-Pitt- Home team is 10-7 in Porter games.
— Cin-Atl- Over is 11-6 in Hudson games..
Under is 14-6 in Wendelstedt games.
— Mil-Chi- Under is 14-6 in Additon games.
— SF-LA- Road underdogs are 7-8 in Carlson games

— TB-Tor- Under is 12-6 in Libka games
— Det-Clev- Home favorites are 8-2 in Cuzzi games.
— Chi-Tex- Over is 12-8 in Hamari games.
— LAA-Sea- Home favorites are 10-3 in Diaz games.
— Hst-A’s- Favorites are 14-6 in Iassogna games.

— NY-NYY- Over is 16-3 in Fletcher games
— Balt-Mia- Under is 11-7 in Ortiz games
— Phil-Minn- Under is 10-8 in Lentz games.
— Az-KC- Home favorites are 6-3 in O’Nora games.
— Bos-Colo- Under is 11-7 in Rehak games.

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Trend: Zach Eflin is 17-4 (+12.23 units) in the last five seasons as a road pick ’em/short favorite between -110 to -140 line range
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-115 at TOR)

Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 50-106 skid (-31.59 units, ROI: -20.3%).
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+210 at TEX)

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(901) CINCINNATI (48-53) at (902) ATLANTA (54-45) (DH Game #2)
Trend: ATL more Under at home (16-32 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)

(909) SAN FRANCISCO (48-54) at (910) LOS ANGELES-NL (61-41)
Trend: SF worse on the road (20-31, -11.29 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (+154 at LAD)

(913) LOS ANGELES-AL (44-57) at (914) SEATTLE (53-50)
Trend: SEA trending Under at home (16-34 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)

(915) DETROIT (50-52) at (916) CLEVELAND (60-40)
Trend: CLE good at home (32-14, +10.86 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-148 vs DET)

(919) CHICAGO-AL (27-76) at (920) TEXAS (49-52)
Trend: CWS awful on the road (10-42, -26.85 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+210 at TEX)

(921) PHILADELPHIA (64-37) at (922) MINNESOTA (55-45)
Trend: MIN better during the day (29-18, +6.10 units)
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (+114 vs PHI)

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(923) BOSTON (54-46) at (924) COLORADO (37-65)
Trend: BOS solid as road favorite (13-5 record)
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-155 at COL)

(925) BALTIMORE (60-40) at (926) MIAMI (36-65)
Trend: MIA trending Over at home (35-16 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

(929) ARIZONA (52-50) at (930) KANSAS CITY (56-46)
Trend: KC great at home (35-19, +14.52 units)
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-122 vs AZ)

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(917) TAMPA BAY (51-50) at (918) TORONTO (45-55)
Trend: Zach Eflin is 17-4 (+12.23 units) in the last five seasons as a road pick ’em/short favorite between -110 to -140 line range
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-115 at TOR)

Trend: Zach Eflin is 14-6 (+6.25 units) vs. AL East opponents since 2020
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-115 at TOR)

(919) CHICAGO-AL (27-76) at (920) TEXAS (49-52)
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi is 15-4 (+7.80 units) at home vs. teams with a < 48% win percentage in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-258 vs. CWS)

(921) PHILADELPHIA (64-37) at (922) MINNESOTA (55-45)
Trend: PHI is 7-1 (+4.55 units) vs. AL Central teams with starter Aaron Nola in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-135 at MIN)

(923) BOSTON (54-46) at (924) COLORADO (37-65)
Trend: Cal Quantrill is profitable in the +135 to +145 line range (9-5 record, +7.55 units) in the last four seasons
System Match: CONSIDER PLAYING COLORADO (+136 vs. BOS)

(925) BALTIMORE (60-40) at (926) MIAMI (36-65)
Trend: MIA is 9-5 (+5.40 units) as shorter underdog -105 to +135 with starter Edward Cabrera in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (+110 vs. BAL)

Trend: MIA is 2-7 (-4.60 units) against teams with a >57% win pct with starter Edward Cabrera in the last three seasons
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+110 vs. BAL)

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