Novak Djokovic vs. Carlos Alcaraz

After pummeling Djokovic at Wimbledon, Alcaraz is a -225 favorite to win gold against the 24-time Grand Slam champion. Those odds are good for an implied probability of 69.23%. I usually try to avoid heavy juice like this, but it’s not crazy to think that this version of Alcaraz would beat this version of Djokovic seven times out of 10 on clay.

Until Djokovic really figures out his serve, he’s going to have a hard time beating Alcaraz. This season, Djokovic’s hold percentage is just 84.7%. That’s the lowest he has had in a season since 2017, and it really isn’t even close. He’s also making a lower percentage of his first serves than he has in each of the previous three seasons. Honestly, things have gotten better for the Serbian as the season has gone on. Those service numbers were worse when I was writing up Wimbledon. But Alcaraz has the third highest break percentage on the planet in 2024, and he had the highest break percentage in tennis in 2023. And it’s that ability to return that helped him whoop Djokovic at Wimbledon. I don’t see anything changing in Paris.

Alcaraz was the best player in the field at the 2024 French Open, finally taking the baton from Rafael Nadal as the new face of clay-court tennis. The Spaniard just has too much speed, power and variety for opponents to figure him out on the fly. That should also apply to Djokovic, even though he’s one of the best problem solvers in the history of the sport. Djokovic was able to outlast Lorenzo Musseti in a two-set match that was more competitive than the score suggests in the semifinals. But the Serbian is still not moving quite as well as he was in 2023, and he tends to miss some shots that he never would have missed a year ago. Those small differences matter against a player with Alcaraz’s overall talent.

A lot will be made about how much this match means to Djokovic, and it undoubtedly means the world to him. Djokovic has the most impressive resume in the history of men’s tennis, but he has never won a gold medal. Perhaps that allows Djokovic to play a flawless set of tennis and get himself on the scoreboard here. But those perfect sets are coming less frequently than they used to these days, and he still needs to win two of them in order to win this match. I’m not sure I see that happening right now.

It should also be noted that Alcaraz is hyperaware of the trajectory he is on as a player, and winning this gold medal would put him in rare territory. The 21-year-old is playing to become the third player in tennis history to win the French Open, Wimbledon and Olympics in one year. So, while Djokovic is driven here, the same can be said for Alcaraz. The Spaniard also wants as many wins over the Serbian as he can get before Djokovic retires. People are going to discount any post-Big Three titles, whether it’s fair or not. So, Alcaraz will look to stack as many victories as he can over Djokovic.

I’m not going to sit here and say that I’m out on Djokovic. A lot of people wanted to call him “washed” after that Wimbledon performance. He’s nowhere near that. But he needs to do some fine-tuning to his game in order to compete with Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner at this point. Fixing the serve would give me a lot of faith in backing him to do that in the future. So, don’t be surprised if I’m playing him on the futures market as the meat of hard-court season approaches. Djokovic is as dangerous as they come on faster hard courts. But I just don’t see him putting it together and beating Alcaraz here.

Men's Tennis Gold Medal Match betting at BetMGM

Carlos Alcaraz open -250, now -275
▪️ 37% of bets, 69% of money on Alcaraz

Novak Djokovic open +200, now +220
▪️ 63% of bets, 31% of money on Djokovic