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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Australia vs. Serbia – 8:30 am ET
Serbia was able to hang on to a win over South Sudan in what was a very tight game for three quarters. That win put Nikola Jokic and Co. in the quarterfinals. Now the team will face quite the challenge against a feisty Australia team. If you’ve been reading along throughout the course of the competition, you know that I’m concerned about Australia’s inability to guard around the basket. Jock Landale starts at center for the Boomers. The Houston Rockets big man is a good offensive player, but he is a little undersized for a center and doesn’t have much foot speed. So, it wouldn’t surprise me if Jokic absolutely dominates here. However, I think Australia is fully capable of keeping the rest of Serbia’s players in check, and I also think that the Boomers have the ball handling and playmaking to give their opponents hell on the other end of the floor.
Defensively, one matchup I’m really interested in watching is Dyson Daniels covering Bogdan Bogdanovic. Daniels will likely spend a lot of time covering his new Atlanta Hawks teammate, and I like that for Australia quite a bit. Daniels is one of the best perimeter defenders in this entire competition. He’s going to be up on Bogdanovic when the Serbian has the ball, and he’s also going to do his best to hang with him off the ball. Daniels does a good job of hounding his man all over the floor, and his screen navigation is very impressive. If he can prevent Bogdanovic from going off, this should be a very competitive game.
On offense, the Australian team just has so many big playmakers that can take advantage of a relatively slow group of Serbian perimeter defenders. Daniels is somebody that can impact games on the offensive end, but Australia will mostly roll the ball out to Josh Giddey here. Giddey has played very well offensively. His ability to attack the rim and finish with either layups or floaters should be on full display here. And he’s as good of a passer as there is in this event. We should also see some attacking from Dante Exum, who is a more aggressive driver in international play than he is in the NBA. And then there’s Patty Mills, who can get as hot as anyone from deep. Look for Mills’ speed off the ball to give Serbia some problems. He’s going to free himself up for some looks.
I know Serbia was viewed as a far superior team heading into the Olympics, but this is a bad matchup for Jokic’s group. Not only do I like Australia to cover a relatively big number, but I’m also sprinkling the moneyline.
Bet: Australia +7 (-120 – 1.5 units) & Australia ML (+235 – 0.5 units)
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08-06-24 08:26 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Brazil vs. USA – 3:30 pm ET
Team USA hasn’t struggled with anybody since this competition actually started. And I don’t see the Americans actually running into any problems with Brazil. But I continue to believe that Team USA’s spreads are inflated by the oddsmakers. The Americans have failed to cover in back-to-back games, and they now have no incentive to run scores up. Now that we’re out of the group stage, point differential doesn’t matter. So, I can’t see Team USA keeping its foot on the gas in the second half of games.
There’s a pretty good chance Team USA runs away a bit in the first half. Brazil isn’t as good as Serbia or South Sudan, and the Americans had no trouble blowing out either team. But Brazil is a little better than Puerto Rico, and the latter hung around against USA last game.
Brazil is somewhat similar to Puerto Rico in that the team is loaded with solid guards. Marcelinho Huertas is the most recognizable of the bunch. The veteran is going to have some trouble creating off the bounce here, as he just lacks athleticism in a big way — especially at this stage of his career. But Brazil has other guards that can create, and Huertas will do a decent job of orchestrating the offense. Also Bruno Caboclo, now six years removed from two years away from two years away, has the talent required to impact this game on both ends. He’s coming off a 33-point, 18-rebound performance against Japan last game. I expect him to give Team USA a lot of problems.
This is just a game that can easily turn into a blowout, but it would need to really get out of hand for Team USA to cover. That’s why I’m grabbing the points again.
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08-06-24 08:26 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Germany vs. France – 11:30 am ET
Germany won by 14 when these teams met in Group B action a couple of days ago, but the team led by a lot more than that and it was a game that was more lopsided than the final score suggested. France had been unimpressive at the Olympics before that game, having just needed overtime to beat a weak Japan team. So, it wasn’t a big surprise that Germany cruised to a win. Germany came out and played with a lot more aggression, and France didn’t respond well after being punched in the mouth. However, we saw a completely different French team against Canada in the quarterfinals. Head coach Vincent Collet made the bold decision to bring Rudy Gobert and Evan Fournier off the bench, looking to play a little smaller and faster against a Canada team that is loaded with NBA talent on the perimeter. The move could have alienated two key French pieces, but it instead energized the entire team. Gobert barely played and appears to be dealing with a minor injury, but Fournier was big off the bench in the game.
France now looks like a team that should bring a much better look to this meeting with Germany. The group knows what to expect from the opponent, which is a lot of on-ball intensity. So, look for France to make quicker decisions with the basketball. Collet actually called out Victor Wembanyama after the loss to Germany and said that his star needs to play within the flow of the offense. Wembanayma responded with five assists in the win over Canada. He didn’t shoot the ball very well, but he was a nice hub offensively and should be better moving forward. And overall, the frontcourt pairing of Wembanyama and former NBA big man Guerschon Yabusele looked excellent. That duo should make things difficult on Germany. Wembanyama’s length is a problem for pretty much any opponent, while Yabusele is a wrecking ball that moves rather well for a guy that is pushing 275 pounds.
The only concern here is that France’s shotmaking can come and go. The team really lacks quality at the guard position. But Isaia Cordinier and Fournier proved that they are capable of stepping up against Canada. I think both will play a big role in helping Les Bleus make this a tight game. I also like that Frank Ntilikina will be in the starting lineup to defend Dennis Schroder. Ntilikina fouled out against Canada, but he’s a big, feisty on-ball defender and will take pride in shutting Schroder’s water off. Schroder had 26 points and nine assists in the first meeting between these teams, but Ntilikina played only nine minutes in that one. This should be an entirely different game.
It’s also hard not to like that France will have the crowd here. These fans will enjoy rooting for a new-and-improved version of the team, and the energy in the stadium should be outrageous.
Bet: France +5.5 (-111 – 2 units) & France ML (+170)
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08-08-24 08:18 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Serbia vs. United States – 3:00 pm ET
Serbia was getting absolutely hammered by Australia in the quarterfinals, but the team started to lock in defensively and slowly chipped away at the lead. Once it got close, Nikola Jokic was able to get his group across the finish line. Jokic finished with 21 points, 14 rebounds and eight assists. He also had four steals and made some timely plays on the defensive end late in the game. Jokic also got some big help from Bogdan Bogdanovic, who woke up after a slow start. And Vasilije Micic added 14 points and six dimes off the bench. All in all, six players scored in double figures for Serbia. The team now has some serious momentum heading into a meeting with a United States team that wiped the floor with Brazil in the quarterfinals.
Team USA battered Serbia when the two met in group play. The Americans ended up earning a 26-point victory in that one. However, I don’t think you can expect that to happen again. For starters, Serbia actually jumped out to an early lead in that game, showing that it can execute at a high level against USA’s defense. The issue is that Serbia was extremely cold from 3 in the game, shooting 9 for 37 from deep. The group also got crushed in the minutes Jokic went to the bench. The big man played 31 minutes in that one, but the time he didn’t play doomed his team. Well, you shouldn’t expect Jokic to come off the floor much here. He played 39 of a possible 45 minutes against Australia last game. And I don’t think it’s crazy to expect the center to play the entire game. That alone would go a long way in helping Serbia keep this game close.
Not only will we see a lot more out of Jokic here, but I’d be surprised if Serbia doesn’t shoot better this time around. Of course, it wasn’t as simple as Serbia just missing open looks the first time. Team USA is the best defensive team in this entire competition. But the Serbians should still have a little better luck from 3, especially considering it’s a team that has solid 3-point shooters. And Jokic has now had several looks at Team USA’s defense, so he should come correct with better ways to pick the opponent apart and create good shots for his teammates.
I also just don’t know if Team USA will be able to run away with this game if it starts out close again. They might have done it in group play, but there’s a different pressure that comes with playing in the knockout rounds.
Overall, Serbia is a team that we were all very high on heading into the tournament, and the team has been battle tested to this point in the competition. I’d be surprised if the Americans run them off the floor. It’s hard to do that to a team three times in a row, and this is the third meeting between them if you include the pre-Olympics showcase.
Bet: Serbia +17.5 (-120 – 1.5 units)
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08-08-24 03:50 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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On Saturday, August 10th, USA will take on France for the gold medal in men’s basketball at the 2024 Paris Olympics. For USA, a spot in this game was expected. The Americans have the most talented squad in the world, which is why they were heavy betting favorites to win the competition. However, the semifinals did prove that this team isn’t perfect. Team USA was pushed to the brink of elimination by Serbia, but the team was able to turn it on late and escape with a 95-91 win. Meanwhile, France was viewed as a contender before the competition started, but people soured on Les Bleus after a slow start to group play. Then, head coach Vincent Collet made some lineup changes and adjusted things strategically. That really woke France up and allowed the team to beat Canada and Germany in the knockout stage. France is now the first team since 1996 to medal as the host of the Olympics, but Les Bleus don’t want to stop there. With all of that in mind, we’re in for an exciting gold medal game, especially considering the atmosphere in the arena.
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08-10-24 12:50 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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This game opened with Team USA laying 15.5 and quickly jumped out to 17.5. Since then, the number has come back down quite a bit. However, I agree with the way it was initially moving. I had France in the team’s win over Germany, as I think Collet pushed the right buttons with his roster. He recognized that playing Victor Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert together wasn’t working. France needed a little more speed in the first unit. The problem is that there’s not much Collet can do to help his team compete with Team USA.
The harsh reality for France is that the best guard in the entire nation isn’t even on the roster. Nolan Traore, an 18-year-old that is expected to be a top-five pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, has been playing for France in the U18 EuroBasket. Meanwhile, the French national team is trotting out Frank Ntilikina, Andrew Albicy, Evan Fournier, Matthew Strazel and Isaia Cordinier in the backcourt. Some of those guys have NBA-level skills. However, none of them are complete basketball players, and the lack of talent at guard is going to stick out like a sore thumb against the American team. USA has guys like Devin Booker, Derrick White and Jrue Holiday to hound opposing guards on the perimeter. These French guards can look extremely uncomfortable with the ball on a good day. It’s only going to look uglier here.
Team USA also happens to have a lot of options for Wembanyama. Between Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis and Bam Adebayo, Steve Kerr is always going to have an elite NBA defender on the French phenom. That’s going to be tough for Wembanyama, who has already had some problems dealing with the physicality the refs are allowing in this competition.
I’m just not sure how France is going to consistently create offense against Team USA. Les Bleus have looked clunky on that end of the floor throughout the entirety of this event. They lack players with the ability to create offense for themselves off the dribble, and they’re not even reliable when it comes to running actions that free up shooters. All of that will be exacerbated against a USA team that can get after it defensively — and will be playing with more intensity than we’ve seen in any game thus far.
Team USA should also have very little problems offensively. They have a number of shot creators that will be licking their chops with some of these slower footed French defenders on them. Look for LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant to turn in big games here, and don’t be surprised if we also see another good performance from Embiid. The big man finally stepped up and contributed in a big way in the win over Serbia. Well, he’ll now use his 70-pound advantage over Wembanyama around the basket.
All in all, there’s just too much that Team USA does well for this current version of France. So, even though Les Bleus will have a significant home-court advantage here, I’d be surprised if this game doesn’t get out of hand.
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08-10-24 04:10 PM |
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