4:05 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals (-115, 9)

The Cardinals (47-42) have taken two of the first three games in this four-game series, winning 8-3 yesterday as -110 road favorites. In today’s series finale, the Cardinals hand the ball to righty Miles Mikolas (6-7, 5.19 ERA) and the Nationals (42-48) counter with lefty Mitchell Parker (5-4, 3.61 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds. The public is leaning toward St. Louis, who has a better record and is available at an attractive coin-flip price. However, despite 55% of moneyline bets taking the Cardinals we’ve seen this line move in favor of the Nationals (-110 to -115). This signals sneaky sharp reverse line movement on Washington, as the line is moving in their direction despite being the unpopular side. The Nationals are receiving 45% of moneyline bets and 52% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split. The Nats have buy-low value as a favorite off a loss. The Cardinals have lost the last two starts made by Mikolas, as he’s given up 11 earned runs in 10.1 innings pitched. Parker is 3-0 with a 3.11 ERA in six home starts this season. St. Louis is only hitting .222 against lefties this year, ranking 29th in MLB.

9:38 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers (-145, 8.5) at Los Angeles Angels

This is the first game of a three-game series. The Rangers (42-48) just swept the Rays, winning yesterday’s series finale 13-2 as -135 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Angels (37-52) just dropped two of three against the Cubs, falling 5-0 yesterday as +130 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Rangers start righty Jon Gray (3-4, 3.92 ERA) and the Angels send out fellow righty Davis Daniel (1-1, 2.70 ERA). This line opened with Texas listed as a -135 road favorite and Los Angeles a +120 home dog. Sharps have laid the chalk with the Rangers, steaming Texas up from -135 to -145. The Rangers are receiving roughly 80% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating heavy Pro and Joe support in addition to a 10-cent steam move in their favor. When two teams with below .500 records face off, the favorite is cashing at roughly a 60% clip this season. Texas has the slightly better offense, hitting .243 with 389 runs scored compared to Los Angeles hitting .235 with 359 runs scored. Texas has the superior bullpen (ERA 4.43 vs 4.70) and also the fresher bullpen, as the Rangers pitched just one reliever yesterday while the Angels featured three relievers. The Rangers are hitting .228 with a 3.62 ERA over their last ten games. The Angels are hitting .224 with a 3.87 ERA over their last ten games.