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Stuttgart and Sparta Prague meet for a crucial Champions League match.

Stuttgart put in a valiant effort against Real Madrid in their first Champions League match, but they ultimately ended up losing 3-1 on the road. Their form has been up and down in the Bundesliga, as they've only won two of their first five matches with the defense really struggling. With the new Champions League format, it's matches like these that Stuttgart have to win if they want to progress to the knockout round.

Sparta Prague got a huge win in their first Champions League match, beating Salzburg 3-0 at home. The champions of the Czech Republic were very impressive, coming through qualifying to get to the Champions League by winning all but one of their matches. They've been in great form to begin the season domestically as well, so they will be live underdogs in this match.

Vfb Stuttgart may have lost their opening match to Real Madrid, but they hammered the defending champions in their own building for the first 30 minutes of the match. That is because Stuttgart have been difficult to face in Germany because of the variability in how they set up tactically.

Stuttgart use a ton of different build up formations depending on the opponent they are going to face. When they are building up from deep they are often using a 4-2-4 shape with the two forwards dropping deep to pull the opposing center backs with them to create an over the top ball to the wingers, who are making inverted runs.

Stuttgart lost their star striker Serhou Guirassy this summer to Dortmund. He scored 28 goals domestically last season. They did retain Deniz Undav, who tallied 18 goals, and bought Ermedin Demirović from Augsburg to help their attack from completely falling off.

The biggest concern for Stuttgart right now is their defense. Through their first five Bundesliga matches they have conceded in each one of them and are allowing 1.55 xG per 90 minutes. The reason for that is two fold. First, their two starting center backs from last year's team, Waldemar Anton and Hiroki Ito, left in the summer. They haven't done a good job at replacing them. Secondly, their press hasn't been as effective as it was last year. Real Madrid were building out very wide, which was creating a lot of space in the middle when Real Madrid would beat the first line of pressure.

Sparta Prague are under a new manager, but things are not going to change because Lars Friis was promoted from being the assistant under Brian Priske to being the full time manager. That means Sparta Prague's style of play isn't going to change a whole lot. In competitions like this, they aren't going to be as aggressive out of possession, but they are going to press out of their "Zonal Man to Man" system.

What that means is they will set up to press out of a 4-3-3 and once the ball goes to one area of the pitch, everyone goes man to man in your zone. While it can be effective at times, it does leave them exposed if you are able to beat their pressure. Below is a scenario where Salzburg beat the first two lines and in turn had a 5 v 4 break on Sparta Prague's back line.

They were in the Europa League last season and played some pretty difficult competition. They hung with and eventually took out a really good Galatasaray team in the Europa League Knockout playoffs, creating 4.1 expected goals over the two legs. They then went on to concede a combined 11 goals to Liverpool, but there aren't a whole lot of differences in terms of aggression in possession between Galatasaray, Liverpool and Stuttgart.

I think this match has the potential to get off the rails with how both of these teams are going to set up. Vfb Stuttgart haven't been able to stop anybody this season, as they are not only feeling the loss of their two star center backs, but are also having some structural issues with their press that Sparta Prague can exploit.

On the flip side, Sparta Prague's defensive set up has consistently exploited when they have to play better competition. Against Liverpool and Galatasaray they conceded a combined 15 goals and given the way Stuttgart are creating chances right now, averaging 2.3 xG per 90 minutes, they should be able to put the ball in the back of the net multiple times.

RB Salzburg will be hosting Brest in the second match day of the 2024 Champions League.

Salzburg are coming off a 3-0 rout in their previous match at Sparta Prague, looking to turn things around after being outplayed by a team that had only 29% of the ball in that contest.

Brest were able to secure a 2-1 victory in their previous Champions League match against Sturm Graz, a team that currently sits atop the Austrian Bundesliga, controlling the match in every facet.

Sitting third in the Austrian Bundesliga with three wins, one draw and one loss in their last five league matches, new manager Pepijn Lijnders seems to be starting his career with Salzburg on a positive note. After being an assistant at Liverpool for the last seven seasons, he’s looking to make a name for himself amongst the numerous other top-flight Dutch managers in European football.

In Salzburg’s previous five league matches they have only conceded three goals, making the 3-0 final score in their match against the lukewarm favorite Sparta Prague more interesting as they conceded a month’s worth of goals in one match. After watching the highlights, I believe this total was inflated a bit by the poor goalkeeping from Janis Blaswich, who has since kept a clean sheet in both matches he has played since this match against Sparta Prague.

One player who seemed to have a positive performance for Salzburg in their previous Champions League fixture was Stefan Bajcetic, a Liverpool loanee who I presume was a top choice for Pepijn Lijnders to help him start strong as a new head coach.

Salzburg are actually a very competent offensive team, averaging just over 18 shots a game with eight on target in the Austrian Bundesliga. We should see more of this in the upcoming fixture against Brest, a team that struggles to keep the ball out of the back of their own net, especially on the road.

Coming off a 2-1 victory in their first Champions League match, Brest face a tougher contest going on the road to Salzburg for their second fixture. When comparing their statistics at home vs. on the road, it really is a tale of two teams. At home, Brest are averaging over 2 goals per match and over 1.5 goals conceded. But on the road, Brest are averaging below 0.5 goals scored and over 2.5 goals conceded this season. Yikes.

This is especially surprising to see with two veteran defenders in Jordan Amavi and Kenny Lala, two proven defenders who both have over 100 appearances for bigger clubs in Europe. This could boil down to the poor managing of Eric Roy, who was appointed manager in the 2023 season for Brest with his only experience as a manager being in the 2010-2011 season for Nice. With all of these key points about Brest being public knowledge, this could be exactly what Salzburg need to get right in the early stages of the Champions League.

Early indications lead me to believe that this could be one-way traffic for Salzburg after highlighting their offense prowess and the defensive incompetencies of Brest, especially on the road.

Arsenal and PSG meet at the Emirates for the most high profile clash of match week 2.

Arsenal got two late goals against Leicester City over the weekend to stay hot in the Premier League title race. It's been an interesting few weeks for the Gunners, who played a ton of high profile matches but have gotten through them with flying colors. They drew Atalanta 0-0 in their opening Champions League match, so three points would be big for them on Tuesday.

PSG are on cruise control right now, but this will be their first big test of the season. They've won five of their first six matches in France and got a late winner against Girona to get all three points in their first Champions League match. The away form in Europe though for PSG has not been great, so this will be an incredibly difficult match for them.

Arsenal's offense finally got back on track Saturday as they put up a whopping 4.4 expected goals against Leicester. It's been a bit of a struggle though offensively for most of the season. What has been happening is they are playing very deep defensively, which is sacrificing some of their ability to consistently create chances.

It's pretty clear at this point that the way to shut down Arsenal's offense is sitting in a low defensive block with five guys or more across the back line. Arsenal typically will build up in a 3-2-5 trying to overload the last line of defense but also trying to create a box midfield to create a central overload. The other aspect of this type of build up is they are trying to get Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli into 1 v 1 situations against the opposing wingers. Saka has been particularly impressive this season creating chances for his opponents.

PSG are not known for sitting in a low defensive block, in fact Luis Enrique wants them to press opponents high up the pitch. That is a pretty big concern here against Arsenal because not only are the Gunners a really good build up team, but they also will have advantages on long balls and playing through the middle with PSG not having any elite ball stoppers in their midfield.

We haven't seen it too often this year, but when Arsenal press opponents high, they are one of the most effective teams in the world. Last season they forced the fourth-most high turnovers and also took the most shots off of those high turnovers. They will typically go man to man with their press with the aim of forcing the ball to one side of the pitch. With PSG wanting to build out via short passes, that gives Arsenal a real good shot at forcing PSG into turning the ball over in dangerous areas

PSG under Luis Enrique are a team that is going to build out of the back with a lot of short passes and this will be the first time that they have faced one of the better pressing teams in the Premier League. You probably aren’t going to see Arsenal all out press given the amount of matches that they’ve played over the past few weeks, but they will rely on pressing triggers and they will be effective at forcing high turnovers or forcing PSG into long balls where Arsenal do have a big advantage winning second balls.

They went to St. James Park early on in the Champions League last season and got hammered 4-1 by Newcastle. In that match, Newcastle allowed PSG to have over 70% field tilt, but they had four shots off of forced high turnovers and even with that extreme field tilt, PSG were only able to manage five shots inside the penalty area.

The other problem for PSG is I am not sure they have a striker they can put up top that can really threaten Arsenal in the box. Arsenal are most likely going to sit in a 5-4-1 or 4-4-2 and will double up Barcola and Dembele on the wings to neutralize the best part of PSG’s attack. That means PSG are going to have to try to beat Arsenal through the middle and they are flat out not going to be able to play short passes through Rice, Partey, Saliba and Gabriel. So, PSG may end up outshooting Arsenal in this match, but it’s going to be a lot of low quality chances.

This line is pretty low for Arsenal even if they have struggled in their attack so far this season.

Arsenal’s offensive numbers look bad right now, but that is mainly because they have spent essentially a full 90 minutes playing down a man. They’ve also played a really difficult schedule where they’ve favored a more defensive approach, but Arsenal are always dangerous on set pieces and PSG in Ligue 1 last season only had a 50% aerial duel win rate.

However, this is Arsenal at home, where they have been so good over a long period of time. Last season they had a +1.58 xGD per 90 minutes at the Emirates and only lost two fluke matches to West Ham and Aston Villa where they were by far the better team but got caught on the wrong side of variance.

Dortmund vs. Celtic odds: Dortmund -209, Celtic +475, Draw +375
Dortmund were supposed to improve under Nuri Sahin, but so far they are really lucky to have won as many matches as they have. They were outplayed for large stretches by Club Brugge and even fell behind Bochum 2-0 on Friday at home. The core issue is their transition defense, which has been bad for a long time but has gotten even worse this season.

What Dortmund are doing in possession is utilizing a lot of different build up structure with the aim of playing through the middle. One of the more common ones has been a 2-2-1-5, which is not something you see very often, and they have been able to create a high number of chances because they have good strikers and creators. However, when they lose the ball there are acres of space out wide for their opponents to attack them and their current center backs are not elite at covering the ground they are being asked to cover.

In six matches in all competitions, Dortmund have conceded 9.3 expected goals, which isn’t that far off from last season, when they allowed 1.53 xG per 90 minutes in the Bundesliga.

Under Brendan Rogers, Celtic have dominated the Scottish Premier League for the last few years and have put up outstanding underlying numbers, averaging well over two expected goals per 90 minutes. They have been forced to play more direct in the Champions League, which hasn’t really been that effective. However, last season they played Atletico Madrid, Lazio and Feyenoord, who are three teams that are all really good at defending in transition, so they weren’t able to do much. That is going to be much different in this match because if teams like Bochum and Club Brugge can have success exploiting Dortmund on the wings, then Celtic can too.

Dortmund’s matches this season have been incredibly high event and that is not going to change on Tuesday. I have both teams to score projected closer to -230, so I love the value on the current line of -143.

Pick: Both Teams to Score (-145

RB Leipzig vs. Juventus odds: RB Leipzig +130, Juventus +210, Draw +240
With how good Juventus’ defense has been this season, I am not sure how RB Leipzig get to two goals here.

When are RB Leipzig at their best? When they are playing in transition. But Juventus are not going to let that happen in this match. The defensive principles under Thiago Motta aren’t a whole lot different than they were under Allegri. Juventus aren't pressing teams high really at all and they are favoring a solid defensive structure that is no different than when Motta was at Bologna.

So far this season, Juventus have conceded only one goal in all competitions and it’s no fluke because in Serie A this year, not a single opponent has created over 0.5 expected goals and they have already played Roma and Napoli. Juventus are a very passive team, but they simply do not allow you to play through the middle or really create any high quality chances in the box. RB Leipzig are not the type of team to break down solid defensive structures as they are coming off only creating 0.7 expected goals against Atletico Madrid on the road and have only created over 1.5 expected goals in one of their first five Bundesliga matches.

I have RB Leipzig's team total projected right at one goal and given how good Juventus’ defense has been, I have a really hard time seeing how they are going to put the ball in the back of the net twice.

Bayern Munich make the trip to Villa Park to take on Aston Villa for a crucial Champions League encounter.

Aston Villa have gotten off to a good start in the Premier League, winning four of their first six matches, but the schedule has been pretty easy. They dispatched Young Boys 3-0 in the first Champions League match with another three points being massive for their chances of making the knockout stage.

Bayern Munich are coming off their first blemish of the season, drawing Leverkusen 1-1 over the weekend. With that being said, it's been a really good start for Vincent Kompany's side, as they've outscored their opponents 30-to-5 in all competitions. Bayern Munich will also be out for a little revenge because Unai Emery's Villarreal knocked them out of the Champions League in 2022.

Aston Villa haven't really been tested so far this season, as they've played one of the easiest Premier League schedules. They certainly haven't faced a team even close to the attacking talent Bayern Munich have and the way Unai Emery sets his team up regularly is the way to stop Bayern Munich.

Let's start with Aston Villa out of possession. They will typically play a very high line with a very compact 4-4-2 structure to reduce the space in between the lines. It works against teams like Arsenal or even lesser competition that can't consistently play direct or play long balls over the top of their defensive structure. That isn't going to work against Bayern Munich, who have a plethora of attackers that can easily make runs off the last line of defense.

Now for Aston Villa in possession. Unai Emery wants his team to play out of the back to try and control matches. He does not want his team to play direct, which is going to be a problem here against Bayern Munich. The Villans' build up has looked good so far this season, but that is because they haven't played anybody who can press them effectively. One of the reasons why Aston Villa's underlying metrics weren't great last season and why they conceded the second-most big scoring chances was because they consistently would turn the ball over in dangerous areas against good pressing teams. On top of that, their best possession midfielder, Douglas Luiz, is gone, so I think they are going to have a lot of trouble getting the ball out of their own final third.

Bayern Munich have maybe been the best team in all of Europe to begin the season, as Vincent Kompany has his team in a really good spot tactically. Bayern are much more aggressive than they normally were under Thomas Tuchel, which has allowed them to create loads of chances offensively.

It's all about overwhelming the opposition, as Bayern Munich are using a lot of different build up structures, but the goal remains the same no matter what. First, they are trying to overload the last line of defense by putting six, sometimes even seven guys on that line, which means either they will have a numerical advantage or the opposing defense will be forced to sit incredibly deep. The other goal is to overload and play through the middle of the pitch. Harry Kane and Muisiala will often use opposite movements when one will drop deep to pull a defender with them and the other will make a run into that vacated space.

The central overload also means that Bayern can get their wingers into 1 v 1 situations. This summer Bayern Munich brought in one of the best wingers in all of world football in Michael Olise, who is already averaging 0.91 xG + xA per 90 minutes.

What has been the story of Bayern Munich though is how good they have been defensively. Because they are overwhelming their opponents and pinning them inside their own final third, they are counter-pressing very aggressively and they have been really successful, which means opponents can rarely make it out of their third of the pitch. In their last two matches against Werder Bremen and Leverkusen they only allowed a total of three shots at 0.1 xG.

I really think Bayern Munich are going to hammer Aston Villa in this match. This has happened time and time against with Unai Emery since he's been at Aston Villa. His team is not set up to play against these types of elite attacking teams with their high line. Even last season when Vincent Kompany was at Burnley his team scored three combined goals against Unai Emery's Aston Villa.

Bayern Munich's counter-press is the reason why they are only allowing 0.35 npxG per 90 minutes this season, as they have a PPDA of 8.17 and are forcing their opponents into losing possession in dangerous areas 30.2 times per 90 minutes. If Aston Villa are going to try and build out of the back, it's going to allow Bayern Munich to generate some easy transition opportunities and create a lot of high quality chances.

Liverpool is looking for back-to-back wins to open their Champions League campaign when they host Bologna at Anfield.

Liverpool has been in amazing form lately, winning their past three matches, and are now at the top of the Premier League table. Arne Slot has completely transformed Liverpool into one of the best teams in the world.

Bologna has had a pretty rough start to their Serie A campaign as they've only have one win in their first six matches. Vincenzo Italiano came over from Fiorentina to continue what Thiago Motta had built, but so far they've aren't anywhere near where they were last season. They had a very boring 0-0 draw with Shakhtar in the opener, so a result here would be massive.

Liverpool have been incredible so far this season. Slot has taken a blend of what they were under Jurgen Klopp and also given them the ability to slow things down and control matches.

Slot is typically having his team build up in a 3-2-5 structure with Trent Alexander-Arnold inverting into the midfield to be the main conductor of the entire build up. It really works when they are able to bait teams into pressing them and use their three-man combinations to play through the opponent's press. However, the one team that gave them trouble was Nottingham Forest, which sat in a very compact defensive shape and didn't let Liverpool play through the middle.

Bologna plays in that exact same manner, so this match could be much more difficult than it appears. They are still looking to play direct when the opportunity is there, but they struggle when teams don't allow them to get out in those transition breaks.

The biggest change for Liverpool has come defensively. They are much more structured and disciplined out of possession than they were under Klopp. They are always making sure they don’t get overloaded in transition and have at least five guys back to stop the opposing counterattack.

It's been working so far. They have only conceded 4.5 expected goals in their six Premier League matches and likely won't even allow Bologna to create anything in this match.

This isn't the team that finished fifth in Serie A last year, but isn't significantly different either. Losing Motta, star striker Joshua Zirkzee and their best defender, Riccardo Calafiori, has really hurt and the team is struggling under the new manager.

Italiano did a masterful job with Fiorentina in Europe, bringing them to back to back Europa Conference League finals and his style of play isn’t a whole lot different than what Bologna were already doing. He wants his teams to build out of the back in a 3-2 or 4-2 shape and they were really effective, getting the ball into teams' final third and controlling matches. Fiorentina had the best field tilt in Serie A and was also third in xThreat.

While having good field tilt, xThreat and possession numbers is great, it's only relevant if it results in your team creating high quality chances. That was a problem for Italiano at Fiorentina because they had the lowest xG per shot in Serie A, oftentimes settling for shots from outside the box. The same thing is happening at Bologna so far — they've only been able to create 6.4 non-penalty expected goals in their first six matches.

Bologna was as solid as it comes defensively under Motta last season. Italiano has a little bit of a different philosophy in wanting his teams to press high, but early on in his tenure, he's maintained that solid defensive structure. It's what is needed in this match because Bologna are without a doubt going to come to Anfield with the mindset of walking away with a point.

They are capable defensively to do exactly what Nottingham Forest was able to do to Liverpool, but their offense is severely limited because they aren't the type of team to hit the opponent quick in transition, so the pace of this match is likely going to be really slow, as I would expect Slot to try and have as much control as possible.

Liverpool matches have gone under the opening total in all six of their Premier League matches, as the books are slowly adjusting to their new style of play under Slot.

Real Madrid and Lille battle on Wednesday night in France for Matchday 3 in the Champions League.

Madrid got off to a winning start in this competition by defeating Stuttgart 3-1 in the home opener.

Meanwhile, the French club came back from Portugal empty-handed after the loss to Sporting in Matchday 1.

Even away from home, I like the Spanish giant to come away with a result here, and I think there’s betting value to cash a winning ticket.

Lille makes its return to the Champions League for the first time since the 2021-22 campaign that finished in the Round of 16. This is the same club that made a run to the quarterfinals of the Europa Conference League last season.

Unfortunately, the recent success of Lille brought attention to its manager, who made the switch to AC Milan in the summer. After the move, the club decided to bring in Bruno Génésio to lead the team.

Génésio has had solid results at previous stops in France — at Lyon and Rennes. One thing that stands out at both stints is the fact that the clubs had European runs.

The results at Lille so far haven't been very positive, but there are still plenty of matches to turn this around.

There was no bigger name to switch clubs over the summer than French superstar Kylian Mbappé. However, he may not feature in this game.

After scoring in his fourth straight match, Mbappé was recently subbed off in the 80th minute against Alavés due to a hamstring issue. He was shown on the team plane traveling to France, but I feel he may need more recovery time.

Regardless of whether Mbappé plays, Carlo Ancelotti should still have plenty of firepower to get a result. He likely will revert to the formation from last season, with Jude Bellingham playing behind Vinícius Junior and Rodrygo.

The big question will be who Ancelotti plays in midfield with Eduardo Camavinga pushing to return from injury. His other option is Luka Modrić, who has plenty of experience in big games.

This is a major step up in competition for Lille, and I think it will be too much. It now comes down to picking the best way to back the visitors.