Phillies-Mets series betting at BetMGM

Game 1
▪️ Phillies -185
▪️ Mets +150

Game 2 (NYM up 1-0)
▪️ Phillies +145
▪️ Mets -175

Game 3 (tied 1-1)
▪️ Phillies -145
▪️ Mets +120

58% of bets are on Mets to win series

63% of money is on Phillies

Mets-Phillies Game 3 betting at BetMGM

Phillies open -115, now -110
▪️ 54% of bets, 57% of money on Phillies

Total open 7, no movement
▪️ 70% of bets, 75% of money on Over

Mets open +1.5 (-185), now +1.5 (-200)
▪️ 34% of bets, 48% of money on Mets

Trend: Philadelphia is 3-11 (-9.78 units) in its last 14 vs. the New York Mets with starter Aaron Nola.
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-112 at NYM)

Trend: Los Angeles Dodgers have a record of 4-11 as a ROAD underdog this season.
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (+136 at SD)

Trend: Since 2013, the number 7 has been key in terms of runs scored for teams. In divisional-round games after a same-series game in which they scored seven runs or more, teams are 37-25 SU (+15.04 units, ROI: 24.3%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-112 at NYM), SAN DIEGO (-162 vs LAD)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
HOME FAVORITES coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proved to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last four-plus seasons, going 307-157 (66.2%) for +36.48 units and a R.O.I. of 7.9%.
System Matches (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-162 vs LAD)

Overall MLB Postseason Trends

Line Angles
Road favorites are on an 8-15 SU skid (-10.98 units, ROI: -47.7%)
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-112 at NYM)

Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating to ’18 have been very vulnerable, as they are just 64-70 SU (-35.51 units, ROI: -26.5%)
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-162 vs LAD)

Coming off wins/losses
Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce-back options, going 48-55 SU (-22.08 units, ROI: -22.6%) since ’16.
System Match (FADE): NY METS (-108 vs PHI)

Series wins status
Home field has proven somewhat advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 72-73 on run lines (+10.63 units, ROI: 7.3%) since ’15.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (+1.5 vs PHI), SAN DIEGO (-1.5 vs LAD)

Stats from last game trends
MLB postseason teams coming off a same series game in which they scored 8 or more runs are on a 49-43 SU (+4.46 units, ROI: 4.8%) surge and 51-41 on run lines (+7.47 units, ROI: 8.1%) since ’14.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO

Trends based on regular-season records
In the last three playoff seasons after a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 48-40 SU (+17.23 units, ROI: 19.6%) and 57-31 on run lines (+17.70 units, ROI: 20.1%) in playoff games.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS

Totals angles
The last three MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as although the outright record on totals is 65-64, Overs have produced a return of +20.20 units, a ROI of 15.7%. Total vig has been heavily shaded towards Unders.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in both games

Divisional Round Angles
Home-field advantage has been particularly prevalent in the divisional series when the host is leading in the series or even. Those hosts are on a surge of 54-35 SU (+5.34 units, ROI: 6%) and 47-42 on run lines (+12.69 units, ROI: 14.3%) since ’15.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS, SAN DIEGO

Since 2013, the number 7 has been key in terms of run scored for teams. In divisional-round games following a same-series game in which they scored seven runs or more, teams are 37-25 SU (+15.04 units, ROI: 24.3%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-112 at NYM), SAN DIEGO (-162 vs LAD)

9 is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 1,693-1,595 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -214.95 units. This represents a ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-162 vs LAD)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last four-plus seasons. These road teams are just 1,622-2,072 (43.9%) for -176.04 units and a ROI of -4.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE): LA DODGERS (+136 at SD)

(901) PHILADELPHIA (96-68) at (902) NEW YORK-NL (92-75)
Trend: NYM good at NIGHT (60-37, +21.35 units)
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-108 vs PHI)

(903) LOS ANGELES-NL (99-65) at (904) SAN DIEGO (96-70)
Trend: LAD has a record of 4-11 as a ROAD underdog this season
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (+136 at SD)

Trend: SD slight OVER at HOME (45-35 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5)

(901) PHILADELPHIA (96-68) at (902) NEW YORK-NL (92-75)
Trend: PHI is 3-11 (-9.78 units) in the last 14 vs NY Mets with starter Aaron Nola
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-112 at NYM)

Trend: Sean Manaea is 6-9 (-3.06 units) within line range of -114 or worse at home in the last six seasons
System Match: FADE NY METS (-108 vs PHI)

(903) LOS ANGELES-NL (99-65) at (904) SAN DIEGO (96-70)
Trend: Walker Buehler is 35-13 (+7.82 units) against divisional competition since 2019
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (+136 at SD)

Dodgers-Padres Game 3 betting at BetMGM

Padres open -150, no movement
▪️ 45% of bets, 79% of money on Padres

Total open 7.5, no movement
▪️ 58% of bets, 59% of money on Under

Dodgers open +1.5 (-175), no movement
▪️ 32% of bets, 9% of money on Dodgers

Dodgers-Padres series betting at BetMGM

Game 1
▪️ Dodgers -135
▪️ Padres +115

Game 2 (LAD up 1-0)
▪️ Dodgers -300
▪️ Padres +240

Game 3 (tied 1-1)
▪️ Dodgers +100
▪️ Padres -120

Most bet (tickets) Phillies-Mets player props at BetMGM

1. Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 Home Run (+450)

2. Bryce Harper Over 0.5 Home Run (+500)

3. Aaron Nola Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-105)

4. Brandon Nimmo Over 0.5 Home Run (+625)