Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 40-53 SU (-34.43 units, ROI: -37%) and 28-65 on run lines (-28.15 units, ROI: -30.3%) since 2012.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-148 vs. NYM)

Since 2013, the number 7 has been key in terms of run scored for teams. In divisional round games following a same series game in which they scored 7 runs or more, teams are 37-23 SU (+17.59 units, ROI: 29.3%).
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-142 vs. SD)

Trend: Luis Severino is 8-19 (-9.23 units) as an underdog in the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): NY METS (+124 at PHI)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle bettors endured a terrible playoff season in 2023, with a month-long record of 19-21 (47.5%) for -10.51 units and an ROI of -26.3%. This is typically a high-volume set of games so bettors lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-148 vs. NYM), SAN DIEGO (+120 at LAD)

Trend: LAD trending Over vs. divisional opponents (34-18 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in SD-LAD (o/u at 8)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-148 vs. NYM), LA DODGERS (-142 vs. SD)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the ’24 season, these teams produced a 360-444 record for -26.45 units (ROI -3.3%). That was below standards historically and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025.
*In the 2024 playoffs, these teams are 5-2 for +4.78 units.
System Matches (PLAY): NY METS (+124 at PHI)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick em’s) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 319-342 record, for +7.54 units (ROI 1.1%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
*In the ’24 playoffs, these teams are 3-1 for +2.68 units.
System Matches (PLAY): NY METS (+124 at PHI)

Line Angles
Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable, as they are just 63-68 SU (-33.41 units, ROI: -25.5%)
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, LA DODGERS

Coming off wins/losses
Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce back options, going 47-55 SU (-23.08 units, ROI: -22.6%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA

Home teams coming off a win in a series game have been a better option, 66-52 SU (+0.35 units, ROI: 0.3%) in that same time span.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LA DODGERS

Series wins status
For teams leading in a series, home field advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 65-41 SU (+18.99 units, ROI: 17.9%) and 56-50 on run lines (+14.9 units, ROI: 14.1%) since 2013.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS

Home field has not meant nearly as much to teams that are trailing in a series and are favored at home, as they are just 35-40 SU (-24.73 units, ROI: -33%) since 2013.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA

Totals angles
The last three MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as although the outright record on totals is 63-62, Overs have produced a return of +20.25 units, an ROI of 16.2%. Total vig have been heavily shaded towards Unders.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in both games

Divisional Round Angles
Home field advantage has been particularly prevalent in the divisional series when the host is leading in the series or even. Those hosts are on a surge of 54-32 SU (+9.44 units, ROI: 11%) and 47-39 on run lines (+16.49 units, ROI: 19.2%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS

Since 2013, the number 7 has been key in terms of run scored for teams. In divisional round games following a same series game in which they scored 7 runs or more, teams are 37-23 SU (+17.59 units, ROI: 29.3%).
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS

Since 2014, teams have bounced back well from a divisional round game in which their bullpen blew a save, going 30-17 SU (+13.7 units, ROI: 29.1%). These follow-up games also tend to go UNDER on totals, 26-19 (+5.2 units, ROI: 11.6%)
System Matches: PLAY – PHILADELPHIA, SAN DIEGO
Also PLAY UNDER in both games