let's head into another big weekend of matches
GL

Everton look for back to back wins in the Premier League when they host Newcastle at Goodison Park.

The Toffees got their first win of the season last weekend, coming from behind to beat Crystal Palace 2-1. It was a disastrous start for Everton after blowing leads in three different matches, so the win was needed to get them out of the relegation zone. They beat Newcastle last season at home and will be hoping for a similar result on Saturday.

Newcastle got a great result in their last match, drawing with Manchester City at home to remain in the top half of the table. It's been an interesting start for Newcastle who have won three of their first six matches, but the underlying numbers are not encouraging. This is also a bad spot for them with their star striker Alexander Isak being out. They are also on the road, where they've struggled for the better part of a year.

The results with Everton right now look bad, but they don't tell the entire story. The Toffees have conceded 15 goals on the season but have conceded 9.9 expected goals. Jordan Pickford has uncharacteristically been horrible this season, having a -3.5 post shot xG +/-, which is the worst mark in the Premier League. He's never been worse than -2.8 over the course of a full season since he joined Everton, so I would expect him to get better as the season goes along.

What will help Pickford and the Everton defense overall is Jarrad Branthwaite being back in the lineup. He is without a doubt not only Everton's best defender, but their best player as well. Last season, he had a 68.6% aerial duel win rate, which will help Everton's ability to defend crosses and also win second balls.

What Sean Dyche wants his team do out of possession is play a high defensive block, cut off any lanes for teams to play through the middle and use that to force high turnovers. Everton are third in the Premier League in forcing opponents into losing possession in dangerous areas and are also top five in ball recoveries.

Even if the results haven't shown it, Everton have been really good at Goodison Park because since the start of last season, they have a +4.6 expected goal differential at home.

Eddie Howe has made some changes to Newcastle this season. The Magpies have been one of the most direct teams in the Premier League under him, as they try to press opponents high, use their physicality and force high turnover to create easy transition opportunities. They aren't really doing that at the level they were two years ago, so instead he's having them sit in a 4-5-1 mid block and trying to deny opponents from playing through the middle of the pitch. It's not really working because Newcastle are allowing the third-most shots and box entries so far this season.

The other change that Eddie Howe has made is he wants his team to build out of the back more to try to have more control over matches. It hasn't been going very well so far, as Newcastle have the worst build up completion percentage in the Premier League through six matches. Even if they do decide to play direct in this match, I am not sure they are going win very many aerial duels or second balls because Alexander Isak is most likley not going to play in this match.

That means that Newcastle are going to have to play Anthony Gordon again as a false nine, which takes away their biggest advantage that they have against Everton: crosses. Newcastle are completing the third-most crosses into the penalty area, but without any aerial threats in the box to get on the end of them, they are stuck offensively.

Newcastle have also really struggled away from home under Eddie Howe. The Magpies had a negative expected goal differential away from St. James Park last season, and that has continued into this season as well.

This match is going to be very similar to when Newcastle went on the road to play Bournemouth. The Magpies really struggled to defend the Cherries in transition that day and the same could happen here against Everton.

If Newcastle decide to try and build out of the back and control this match, that is going to play right into what Everton want to do, which is press out of their high block to create high turnovers.

Once Newcastle are able to get the ball into the final third, really the only way to beat Everton is with crosses. With Isak likely not going to feature in this game and Callum Wilson still injured, the Magpies don't have any aerial threats to trouble Everton.

Everton beat Newcastle 3-0 and created 3.3 expected goals against them at Goodison Park last season and I wouldn't be surprised if we see a similar result on Saturday.

Premier League leaders Liverpool will attempt to continue their excellent start to life under Arne Slot when they visit a Crystal Palace side still looking for its first win of the season.

Liverpool have won three in the row in the league and five straight in all competitions under their new Dutch boss, most recently seeing off Bologna 2-0 in Wednesday's second UEFA Champions League match.

Palace have won two League Cup matches, but they have taken only three points from their six league games and most recently lost a grip on their early lead in a 2-1 loss at Everton.

The away side won both these teams' league matches last season, with Palace's 1-0 triumph at Anfield in April sparking the start of a Spring revival after Oliver Glasner's hiring in February.

That aforementioned triumph at Anfield began a string of impressive results after Glasner arrived, and while the Eagles were fortunate not to concede their attacking play was worthy of a point. What followed was a seven-match unbeaten run with six wins to close the season, allowing them to avoid a relegation scrap quite comfortably.

But while Glasner deserved credit for that revitalization, so did the return to fitness of wingers Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise, who both battled ailments through much of the season. And it took several matches for that pairing to find their chemistry under their new boss before an attack emerged that scored 21 goals in those final seven games.

That's worth remembering given the transition Glasner's group has endured since. Olise moved on to Bayern Munich and useful reserve striker Jordan Ayew moved to Leicester City. The replacements — Eddie Nketiah and Ismaila Sarr — are still finding their footing, with that duo yet to make a goal contribution.

Palace probably deserved a point from their 2-1 defeat at Everton, a game decided largely by the individual brilliance of Dwight McNeil's left foot. And we're entering that two-month window where you might expect a re-invented group to take a step forward if Palace's April and May improvement last season are an indication.

Any concern that the end of the Jurgen Klopp era at Liverpool would bring an immediate regression should be quieted by the club's start to the 2024-2025 campaign.

The Reds have won all but one of their matches so far under Slot, and those performances have been impressively consistent; Liverpool led their opponent in expected goals created in every match they have played — including tricky trips to Manchester United and AC Milan — and have allowed 0.6 xG or less to their opponent in all but two of them.

It certainly helps to have veterans like Luis Diaz and Mo Salah, for whom adapting to a new manager's approach for club or country has become old hat. That pair has nine of the Reds' 12 league goals.

And despite Champions League play, the early league schedule has been relatively gentle on Slot's group, which hasn't included a team that sits higher than the 10th-place Nottingham Forest side that represents the Reds' sole defeat.

If the good patterns that existed under Klopp seem to be present under Slot, then so are the bad ones — namely an inability to make some games easier on themselves by scoring a fourth or fifth goal when it's clearly there for them. In fairness, sometimes that comes later; all six of Liverpool's four-goal performances in the league last year came after match day 14.

This should be one of the more entertaining games of the weekend, with both teams committed to a proactive style. That's reflected in the odds on the total here, which are leaning toward three or more goals, and might be doing so more heavily were this Palace side in April or May form.

In the final slate of Premier League action before the October international break, we have a clash between two teams that are off to complete opposite starts. Southampton, who are winless through six matches and in the bottom three of the table, travel to the Emirates to face Arsenal, who are unbeaten and in the top three.

Last time these sides met, the circumstances of the game were quite similar, although it took place much later in the season. The Gunners were in the midst of a title race, while the Saints were fighting against relegation. As a result, a thrilling 3-3 draw was a disappointment for both, especially for the visitors, as they had a two-goal lead in the 88th minute before a double salvo from Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka leveled the scoreline.

The gap between these teams has only grown in the 18 months since that last encounter, and that's reflected by the Arsenal moneyline being priced as high as -900 for this one.

Last time out, Mikel Arteta's men engineered a commanding 2-0 victory against PSG in the Champions League. Yet again, in a match against a "big" team, they showed a willingness to sit in a ultra-compact 4-4-2 mid/low block and shut down their opponents' attack, especially after they had the lead. A similar approach shouldn't be expected here, as the Gunners are far and away the better outfit.

Instead, dominance akin to what Arsenal displayed against Leicester last weekend appears likely. Yes, they needed a stoppage time winner from Leandro Trossard, but that game being 2-2 at that point after they quadrupled the Foxes' Expected Goals (xG) and had over 90% Field Tilt was an unjust outcome, to say the least.

On the personnel front, the majority of the issues are adjacent to the imperious William Saliba/Gabriel center back duo. The statuses of Jurrien Timber, Ben White and Takehiro Tomiyasu are all up in the air while Oleksandr Zinchenko remains out. Riccardo Calafiori at right back and Jakub Kiwior at left back, which we saw in the second half of the PSG match, is a real possibility, and that's far from the most defensively secure fullback pairing. Further up the pitch, everyone is healthy besides Odegaard, so Arteta will have a decision to make between Thomas Partey and Mikel Merino. Although, with how well the Ghanaian has been performing, it's difficult to imagine he won't start again Saturday.

While picking up just one point in the first six matches isn't a great look, Southampton haven't been as bad as a lot of people want to believe. They're 12th in the Premier League in Expected Threat (xT) differential, and while they are all over the place defensively (particularly in transition), they're still creating the 11th most xG per game.

A tactical approach emphasizing possession and high pressing when they lack athleticism in defense and final third difference-makers might not be ideal, but getting results this bad does seem slightly undeserved. Russell Martin and co. haven't faced a team like Arsenal yet, so how they adapt to such a physical, talented and tactically smart outfit remains a bit of mystery.

Nothing has summed up the Saints' troubles quite like Jack Stephens' current availability situation. After receiving a straight red in the 80th minute of a 3-0 defeat vs. Manchester United, Stephens directed some colorful language toward the match officials and received an additional two-game suspension on top of the three enforced absences for the sending off. He remains sidelined in this one, which doesn't bode well. In Hammurabi Code-fashion, that United game delivered the breakthrough of 18-year-old forward Tyler Dibling, who has been a lone source of optimism in the midst of a dreary start to the season. He'll figure to play a big role here, whether he starts up top or off the right.

As previously stated, Arsenal are massively favored and should win this fixture. There's just really not a situation where Southampton are going to be able to cope with the Gunners' attacking threat, unless Aaron Ramsdale puts in a 2017 David de Gea-level performance in his return to N5, which is very unlikely.

While I don't like the idea of Arsenal's moneyline at -750, factoring the potential defensive frailties that come with a Calafiori/Kiwior fullback tandem, I do like the value on the Both Teams to Score market. Dibling, Maxwell Cornet and Ben Brereton Diaz are all capable of a moment of magic from the wings against that level of wide defending, and like I said last week, these Gunners are always at risk of conceding a sloppy goal when they've accumulated a comfortable lead at home.

Arsenal vs. Southampton Odds
Arsenal -852 // Southampton +1925

Total: 3.5 (-102/-120)

My EPL best bet of the weekend is a bet I really like to play and one that has cashed for us before. Arsenal to win to nil, which I think is a great price at -125

Whether you are data-driven, putting your faith in the metrics, or prefer to rely on using your eyes, you come to the same result that Southampton is the worst team in the league. It wouldn’t surprise me to see them end with a similar points total to that Sheffield United ended on last season. They are that bad.

Russell Martin’s side are a shambles defensively and offer nothing going forward. This is highlighted by them being the lowest scorers in the EPL with three goals from the opening six games.

They are pinning their hopes on a 17-year-old winger who has burst onto the scene and shows plenty of promise, but at this level, you need more than that. Mid-table Bournemouth ripped them apart on Monday, and they are now facing a huge step up in class. They take on this Arsenal side who are the new favorites to win the title.

The Gunners’ title bid is based on a rock-solid defense. David Raya has been amazing in goal with an incredible central defensive partnership in front of him. They took their eye off the ball last week when conceding two late goals against Leicester, which would have displeased Mikel Arteta. They then bounced back from that with a very impressive win against PSG in the Champions League, keeping another clean sheet in the process.

Last season, Arsenal won-to-nil on 21 occasions across all competitions and have already done so four times this term. This is the weakest opponent of the season so far, and I just can’t see how this Southampton side can score against them.

The Saints’ record on the road at Arsenal is diabolical. You must go back 29 matches to find the last time they won, way back in November 1987 in the old First Division at Highbury.

That record will not change here, with the Gunners cruising to another win without conceding to keep the pressure on at the top.

Man City aim to halt a two-match league winless run when they host a Fulham side that may be developing its own European ambitions following a strong start.

City have drawn their last two league games, home to Arsenal and away to Newcastle United, and now they enter the weekend a point behind Liverpool in what is still very early days in the league title race.

Fulham come into the clash in sixth on the back of successive wins at home to the same Newcastle side and then away to Nottingham Forest.

City have won 16 consecutive matches between the sides in all competitions in a run extending back to 2012. Fulham's last win in the series came in 2009.

City's back-to-back draws would not be concerning by themselves given the caliber of opposition. But in the larger context, they could perhaps show signs that Pep Guardiola's group is vulnerable to finally be knocked off its perch as four-time repeat league champions.

There's Rodri's season-ending injury which was disclosed last week. While City had mostly managed without the Spanish midfielder this season, his influence last season was crystal clear — with all but one of four league losses coming in a brief stretch when he was sidelined last fall.

Then there's the specter of how hearings over alleged financial fair play violations might impact the on-field product, with those proceedings beginning a couple weeks ago.

Amid all that Guardiola still has an embarassment of riches at his disposal, and one that despite playing in Europe midweek should be fairly fresh given the nature of a 4-0 Champions League win over Slovan Bratislava.

Premier League golden boot frontrunner Erling Haaland and central defender Manuel Akanji were permitted to exit with the outcome well in control by the hour mark, and Phil Foden and Josko Gvardiol followed not long after.

Both the eye test and the data reveal a Fulham side that has been among the more consistent performers this season.

The Cottagers have gone unbeaten in the five matches since a season-opening defeat at Manchester United, and they have been worthy of all five results according to the expected goals data. Their average xG differential is about +0.7 per match across those five games.

A relatively weak schedule has to be factored into an evaluation of Marco Silva's side, which has already played two of this season's newly promoted clubs. But so does the fact that Fulham were also clearly better than their opponent in matches against West Ham and Newcastle.

Striker Raul Jimenez may never regain the form he had before suffering his frightening head injury while playing for Wolves, but Silva has gotten steady if unspectacular production from the 33-year old Mexican when he's healthy.

After supplanting the out-of-form Rodrigo Muniz, Jimenez has goals in each of his last three starts, and in the previous campaign he scored 0.45 goals per 90 minutes. That ratio was near his career high of 0.47 in the 2019-2020 campaign, though it didn't feel as prolific because of far more limited minutes.

The money on the "both teams to score" market is split down the middle here, which feels strange if you consider each club's recent habits.

Keeping clean sheets is a mentality issue, and it's a rare area where Guardiola's side has struggled despite all of its success, particularly when they are considerable favorites. The same pattern has emerged this season, with City's only clean sheet in the league kept in one of their most-hyped games, a season-opening 2-0 win at Stamford Bridge.

Meanwhile, despite their struggles to earn results in this fixture, Silva's men have found the goal in all but one league meeting between these sides during the last two seasons. And that exception came on the season's final day, when City were seeking to clinch their fourth straight title and Fulham had nothing but pride to play for.

Everton look for back to back wins in the Premier League when they host Newcastle at Goodison Park.

The Toffees got their first win of the season last weekend, coming from behind to beat Crystal Palace 2-1. It was a disastrous start for Everton after blowing leads in three different matches, so the win was needed to get them out of the relegation zone. They beat Newcastle last season at home and will be hoping for a similar result on Saturday.

Newcastle got a great result in their last match, drawing with Manchester City at home to remain in the top half of the table. It's been an interesting start for Newcastle who have won three of their first six matches, but the underlying numbers are not encouraging. This is also a bad spot for them with their star striker Alexander Isak being out. They are also on the road, where they've struggled for the better part of a year.

The results with Everton right now look bad, but they don't tell the entire story. The Toffees have conceded 15 goals on the season but have conceded 9.9 expected goals. Jordan Pickford has uncharacteristically been horrible this season, having a -3.5 post shot xG +/-, which is the worst mark in the Premier League. He's never been worse than -2.8 over the course of a full season since he joined Everton, so I would expect him to get better as the season goes along.

What will help Pickford and the Everton defense overall is Jarrad Branthwaite being back in the lineup. He is without a doubt not only Everton's best defender, but their best player as well. Last season, he had a 68.6% aerial duel win rate, which will help Everton's ability to defend crosses and also win second balls.

What Sean Dyche wants his team do out of possession is play a high defensive block, cut off any lanes for teams to play through the middle and use that to force high turnovers. Everton are third in the Premier League in forcing opponents into losing possession in dangerous areas and are also top five in ball recoveries.

Even if the results haven't shown it, Everton have been really good at Goodison Park because since the start of last season, they have a +4.6 expected goal differential at home.

Eddie Howe has made some changes to Newcastle this season. The Magpies have been one of the most direct teams in the Premier League under him, as they try to press opponents high, use their physicality and force high turnover to create easy transition opportunities. They aren't really doing that at the level they were two years ago, so instead he's having them sit in a 4-5-1 mid block and trying to deny opponents from playing through the middle of the pitch. It's not really working because Newcastle are allowing the third-most shots and box entries so far this season.

The other change that Eddie Howe has made is he wants his team to build out of the back more to try to have more control over matches. It hasn't been going very well so far, as Newcastle have the worst build up completion percentage in the Premier League through six matches. Even if they do decide to play direct in this match, I am not sure they are going win very many aerial duels or second balls because Alexander Isak is most likley not going to play in this match.

That means that Newcastle are going to have to play Anthony Gordon again as a false nine, which takes away their biggest advantage that they have against Everton: crosses. Newcastle are completing the third-most crosses into the penalty area, but without any aerial threats in the box to get on the end of them, they are stuck offensively.

Newcastle have also really struggled away from home under Eddie Howe. The Magpies had a negative expected goal differential away from St. James Park last season, and that has continued into this season as well.

This match is going to be very similar to when Newcastle went on the road to play Bournemouth. The Magpies really struggled to defend the Cherries in transition that day and the same could happen here against Everton.

If Newcastle decide to try and build out of the back and control this match, that is going to play right into what Everton want to do, which is press out of their high block to create high turnovers.

Once Newcastle are able to get the ball into the final third, really the only way to beat Everton is with crosses. With Isak likely not going to feature in this game and Callum Wilson still injured, the Magpies don't have any aerial threats to trouble Everton.

Everton beat Newcastle 3-0 and created 3.3 expected goals against them at Goodison Park last season and I wouldn't be surprised if we see a similar result on Saturday.

Brentford vs. Wolves Odds
Brentford +104 // Wolves +249

Total: 2.5 (-138/+108)

Just how good Brentford are at home tends to fly a little bit under the radar. The Bees are 12th in the table but have picked up seven points from a possible nine on home soil, and no other side can better that.

They won their opening two home games against Crystal Palace and Southampton before drawing last weekend with West Ham. Thomas Frank has his side regularly beating the teams in and around them in the table with an exceptional record against sides in the bottom half.

Brentford’s three defeats this season have come against the top two, Liverpool and Manchester City, as well as 8th-placed Tottenham. There is no disgrace in that, and none of those results will have a detrimental impact on their survival hopes this term.

Wolves do have a good record here, having not been beaten since Brentford were promoted to the Premier League in 2021, winning two and drawing one. They even picked up a draw here in the FA Cup in January.

However, Brentford did win the last meeting between the two sides, recording a 2-0 victory at Molineux in February. What’s more, this is a far worse version of Wolves than we have seen in recent years.

Gary O’Neil has serious problems to contend with after his best players were sold off in the summer. He is now suffering from something of an injury crisis. Seven first-teamers are currently ruled out more than any other Premier League team.

Experienced professionals like Craig Dawson are a massive miss; without him, Wolves have been a shambles defensively. They are rock-bottom of the table and have shipped a league-high 16 goals from their opening six games.

At home, Brentford have a little bit about them and are a match for anybody, let alone this Wolves side. They start fast and can put the visitors on the back foot immediately, even if they aren’t able to make it an incredible fourth successive game scoring in the opening minute!

I fear for Wolves and O’Neil, who may be out of a job after this fixture. I see the home side winning and winning well against a team who are at the bottom of the table for a reason: they are very poor. The +102 on offer looks a real slice of value to me and I can only assume is there because people feel Wolves are due a good performance or because of their strong record in this fixture over the years.

this Brentford/Wolves match is awesome, over cashes in 12 minutes
GL

Aston Villa look to maintain their good form when they host Man United at Villa Park.

It's been a brilliant start to the season for Aston Villa and they just got one of their most famous victories under Unai Emery, beating Bayern Munich 1-0 at home in the Champions League.

They've played one of the easiest schedules so far to start the Premier League but have taken care of business, winning four of their first six matches. They will be out for some revenge on Saturday because Manchester United beat them in both meetings last season.

Manchester United is in a state of disarray at the moment. Erik ten Hag is one of the hottest seats you can imagine and a loss here might end up being the last straw.

They got hammered 3-0 by Tottenham at home last time they were in action in the Premier League and needed a stoppage time goal to draw Porto in the Europa League on Thursday. United is currently sitting in 13th place and needs to start picking up results, or this could be one of the worst seasons the club has ever experienced.

Aston Villa got their first big test of the season and passed it against Bayern Munich. They weren't that impressive in the match because Bayern dominated possession and Aston Villa was forced to play more direct, but this is going to be a much easier opponent.

Emery wants his team to play out of the back to try and control matches. The Villans' build-up has looked good so far this season, as they have been able to consistently build out of the back against some pretty poor pressing teams.

Aston Villa has the sixth-best build-up completion percentage and has one of the lowest turnover rates in dangerous areas. That has led Aston Villa to average 1.54 npxG per 90 minutes and they have two really good strikers in Ollie Watkins and Jhon Durán, who have combined for eight goals already this season.

One thing that has been drastically better for Aston Villa this season has been their set-piece offense. They are one of the many teams in the Premier League that employs a set-piece coach and it's paid off because they've already scored three goals off of them and have the highest xG per set-piece in the Premier League.

Manchester United has been below average at defending set pieces this season, so Aston Villa will have a big advantage over them.

Since Emery arrived, Aston Villa has had one of the most drastic home/road splits in England. Since the start of last season, Aston Villa has a +15.3 expected goal differential at Villa Park but has a -9.1 expected goal differential away from home.

Ten Hag has been one of the worst out-of-possession tactical managers for a while now and winning two trophies has overshadowed the actual issues with his side because the defensive structure has been the big issue for a year and a half now.

Not only has United's press not been effective, but when they try to sit off in their defensive structure, they are simply allowing way too much space, which is why teams have been able to play right through them.

Before Fernandes got the red card in the 42nd minute, Manchester United had already conceded 12 shots and 1.99 expected goals. Then, with a two-goal lead against Porto, they proceeded to concede three consecutive goals and it almost cost the match.

Just take a look at the difference between Arsenal and Manchester United defending in the same formation.

While the defense has all sorts of issues, the offensive numbers have improved. Manchester United is averaging 1.80 xG per 90 minutes because they have been more effective with their build-up.

With Lisandro Martinez and now Matthijs de Ligt in the lineup, it has allowed United to go short from goal kicks and use more short passes to play through an opponent's press. In this match, though, they are going to have to play a lot more long balls, with Aston Villa playing a high defensive line.

This price is too low for Aston Villa with how good they have been at Villa Park.

Where Aston Villa tends to struggle is when they play elite pressing teams and they are forced to either send long balls up to the strikers or they turn the ball over on their end of the pitch, which leads to easy transition opportunities.

Manchester United is the furthest thing from an elite pressing team and even if they sit in a passive defensive structure, their positioning and work rate aren't good enough to limit Villa from creating high-quality chances.

Manchester United may have won both meetings against Aston Villa last season, but Villa dominated both matches, winning the expected goals battle a combined 4.1 to 2.9. Aston Villa will also be on an extra day of rest, with Manchester United having traveled to play Porto in Portugal on Thursday in the Europa League.

Aston Villa vs. Manchester United Odds
Aston Villa +119 // Manchester United +204

Total: 3.5 (+128/-156)

Aston Villa produced a stunning performance and result in beating Bayern Munich in the Champions League on Wednesday. There is a train of thought that they could still have their heads in the clouds come kickoff back in the EPL on Sunday. However, this is a great fixture to regain that focus. If they were playing a team in the bottom seven, I could have been interested in fading them.

In contrast to that, next up is Manchester United, and I am backing them on the Moneyline at +127. This is a United side completely on the ropes. Unai Emery could finally land the knockout punch that takes Erik ten Hag out of his job at Old Trafford.

Like it or hate it, momentum is a huge word in sport. Villa carry that into this game, thinking they are invincible in the way they are currently playing. They have just beaten one of the best club sides in Europe and kept a clean sheet against them, after they scored nine on match day one of the Champions League.

If they needed more belief, they could genuinely follow up last season’s performance when they finished in the top four, then they certainly got it with that result against Vincent Kompany’s star-studded outfit. Believe me, Villa are the real deal and are a proper team who are being totally disrespected on the Moneyline.

Look at who Manchester United have beaten this season. A 1-0 win against Fulham where they were awful, then they beat third-tier Barnsley in the League Cup, then Southampton, who we are rating the worst side in the EPL after they had missed a match-defining penalty. Against top sides comparable to Villa, they lost 3-0 to both Liverpool and Tottenham.

It seems a lot is being made of that game against Bayern Munich, but not much being said that the Red Devils travel to Portugal to play Porto on Thursday night in a late kickoff. That’s a day less recovery. Then they must travel for this road game.

Ten Hag has been given a stay of execution, but it is clear the players are not playing for him, and we have seen them down tools before if the game is going against them. Christian Eriksen recently admitted after the game against FC Twente that their opponents wanted it more.

Villa has goals from all over the pitch and create so many chances for the likes of Ollie Watkins, Jhon Duran off the bench or Youri Tielemans from midfield. If in the mood, the Villains could not only win but rack up a big score.

Chelsea have been firing on all cylinders offensively, but let's take a step back and look at the last two Premier League opponents they faced. They scored three goal against West Ham, who are one of the worst defensive teams in the league, and then scored four goals against Brighton, who play the highest defensive line in Premier League and were able to consistently take advantage of it.

The reason they scored four against Brighton is because at Chelsea's core, they are a much better transition team than they are trying to build out of the back. It's the reason they went on a winning run towards the end of last season and why they've always played well against the top sides. What Chelsea are not good at is breaking down good low blocks.

The problem is if teams don't allow Chelsea to play through the middle, they are forced to try and beat them with crosses and the Blues don't have any good aerial threats. Nottingham Forest are an elite defensive team. They went to Anfield and held Liverpool scoreless because they were so good defending in their own final third. The Trees are allowing the lowest xG per shot this season and have also allowed the third-fewest non-penalty expected goals.

They went to Stamford Bridge last season with a similar tactical plan and pulled off the upset, winning 1-0. I only have Chelsea's spread projected at -0.68, so I like the value on Nottingham Forest +1 at +115.

Pick: Nottingham Forest +1 (+115

Tottenham look to build off their win over Manchester United when they travel to the south coast to take on Brighton.

Brighton got battered in their last match against Chelsea, conceding four first half goals to Cole Palmer. It’s been an up and down start to the Fabian Hurzeler era at the Amex with their style of play being uber-aggressive. Brighton got a famous 4-2 win over Tottenham at home last season and will be looking of a similar result on Sunday.

Tottenham made a statement at Old Trafford over the weekend, dominating Manchester United 3-0. It’s their first big win of the season after failing their other two tests against Newcastle and Arsenal. Ange Postecoglu had Tottenham on top of the mountain at beginning of last season, but his style of play has cause them to slowly slide down the table. If they can win this match it would be five in a row in all competitions heading into the international break.

Brighton have looked good under Fabian Hurzeler, even if the results haven’t shown it. The Seagulls are building up in a lot of different formations, but their most common one is a base 4-2-4. The wingbacks will often push high as they get further up the pitch with the last line of four being very narrow so balls can be played out wide to the advancing fullbacks to create a 1 v 1 or 2 v 1 out wide.

Brighton will also change their build up formation based what type of defensive structure their opponent is in. The entire aim though is overload the opposition where they are weakest. Whether that is out wide or through the middle, Hurzeler wants his team to exploit the opposing team's weakness.

What is clear though with Brighton is they are really effective at getting through the first two phases of build up with pretty relative ease. They are turning the ball over at the third lowest rate in their own end of the pitch and also have the third-most final third touches so far this season.

Under Hurzeler, Brighton are playing an incredibly dangerous high defensive line. Per markstats, Brighton have the second-highest average defensive line at 50.9 meters. It cost them against Chelsea, as the Blues were able to expose it time and time again. Brighton have drawn a ton of opponents offsides and it’s allowed their press to be effective, but once teams are able to play in behind it, they allow a ton of big scoring chances.

Tottenham were able to take advantage of Manchester United’s passive structure and create a lot of chances, but that isn’t going to be the case against Brighton. No team has really consistently pressed Tottenham high, so this will be the first big test of the season for Ange Postecoglu’s build up.

What most teams are doing against Tottenham is sitting in a compact defensive structure and not letting them overload the middle. They are then leaving the Tottenham wingers in 1 v 1 situations because they are not great at beating the opposing fullback off the dribble. However, if Brighton are going to play their high defensive line, Brennan Johnson and Heung-Min Son are really good at making runs off the opponent's back line.

Tottenham are the most aggressive pressing team in the Premier League right now and it's worked in their last two Premier League matches. That is a principle under Ange Postecoglu that is not going to change, as Tottenham are always going to be extremely aggressive, which does leave them vulnerable to counterattacks and balls over the top. They currently lead the Premier League in PPDA and high turnovers, so even though Brighton’s build up has been good, they haven’t faced a pressing team like Tottenham yet.

This is going to be the most chaotic and entertaining match of the weekend. These are the No. 1 and 2 teams in PPDA and both are in the top three for highest average defensive line. That means there is going to be so many break away chances at both ends, so it’s really hard to see who will come out on top. These two are second and third in field tilt as well, so both teams will be doing whatever possible to try and pin their opponent inside their own final third.

One thing for sure is there will be chances and likely goals. Brighton matches this season are averaging 3.16 expected goals, while Tottenham matches are averaging 3.29 expected goals. In the previous two meetings between these two teams there have been a total of nine goals and 8.3 expected goals created.

Both of these managers want to play very aggressively, so this one should get off the rails pretty quickly.