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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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4:05 p.m. ET: Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5, 41.5)
The Dolphins (1-1) just got rolled by the Bills 31-10, losing outright as 2.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Seahawks (2-0) just beat the Patriots 23-20, pushing as 3-point road favorites. This line opened with Seattle listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with Seattle and fade Miami, who will be without star QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion). However, despite receiving 68% of spread bets we’ve seen Seattle tumble from -6.5 to -4.5. Some shops are even inching toward Miami +4. This indicates smart money going contrarian and grabbing Miami plus the points. Road dogs are 14-10 ATS (58%) so far this season and 517-435 ATS (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2018. The Dolphins enjoy a notable 3-day rest advantage, having played last Thursday while Seattle played last Sunday. Land Clark, the lead ref, is 52-41 ATS (56%) to the road team historically. This is also a classic “buy-low, sell-high” value play on Miami, who just got blown out and lost their quarterback while Seattle is coming off a win. Dogs off a blowout loss of 20-points or more are 89-66 ATS (57%) with a 10% ROI since 2018.
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09-22-24 04:56 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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4:25 p.m. ET: Detroit Lions (-3, 51.5) at Arizona Cardinals
The Lions (1-1) just fell to the Buccaneers 20-16, losing outright as 7.5-point home favorites. Conversely, the Cardinals (1-1) just crushed the Rams 41-10, cruising as 1-point home favorites. This line opened with Detroit listed as a 4.5-point road favorite. The public is leaning toward laying the points with Detroit in a “bounce back” spot. However, despite receiving 53% of spread bets we’ve seen the Lions fall from -4.5 to -3. In addition, most books are juicing up Cardinals +3 (-115), signaling further liability on Arizona and possible dip down to +2.5. This indicates sharp action on the Cardinals plus the points, as we’ve seen consistent one-way movement in their direction from the outset. Arizona has value as a “dog who can score” (averaging 34.5 PPG, 2nd in the NFL), thereby keeping pace or securing a backdoor cover. Conference home dogs +4 or less are 136-107 ATS (56%) with an 8% ROI since 2018. Kyler Murray is 26-14 ATS (65%) with a 25% ROI as a dog in his career.
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09-22-24 04:56 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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8:20 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 46.5) at Atlanta Falcons
The Chiefs (2-0) just outlasted the Bengals 26-25 but failed to cover as 6.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Falcons (1-1) just upset the Eagles 22-21, winning outright as 5.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 4.5-point road favorite. The public is all over the Chiefs, who are receiving 79% of spread bets. However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Kansas City fall from -4.5 to -3. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on Atlanta, as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular side. The Falcons are only receiving 21% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime Sunday Night Football game, offering notable “bet against the public” value. Primetime dogs are 123-95 ATS (56%) with an 8% ROI since 2020. Those looking to go contrarian and back Atlanta would be wise to hold out for a hook, as the Chiefs are currently -3 (-115), signaling a possible rise up to -3.5 between now and kickoff tonight. Sharps also seem to be leaning under, as the total has dipped from 47.5 to 46.5. The under is only receiving 31% of bets but 51% of dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp discrepancy. Primetime unders are 5-3 (62%) so far this season and 165-110 (60%) since 2019.
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09-22-24 04:56 PM |
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