The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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| Date Registered: |
09-05-09 |
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| Total Posts: |
251 (0.05 posts per day) |
| Last Post: |
08-01-12 06:49 PM
8/1 MLB Selections |
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SIMPLE OVER/UNDER CHASE & TEAM TOTAL CHASE
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I follow all the teams and when a team has gone 4 OVERS in a row i CHASE the team until i HIT an UNDER, OR, when a team has gone 4 UNDERS in a row i CHASE the team until i HIT an OVER.
If a PUSH occurs in GAME1 i decide by looking at the pitchers whether to continue the chase BUT if it occurs in GAME2, 3, OR 4 the chase continues.
OVER/UNDER CHASE APRIL 23RD TO MAY 31ST= 51-0 51 UNITS
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JKAUL'S DOG CHASE
1. Is Team Playing ON projected to be a dog for the entire three or four game series?
2. Is Team Playing AGAINST on 3 Game Winning Streak? (If YES, PASS)
Is Team Playing ON on 3 Game Losing Streak? (If YES, PASS)
3. Is Team Playing ON At Least .400 Over Their Last 10 Games? (If NO, PASS)
Is Team Playing AGAINST .600 or Worse Over Last 10 Games? (If NO, PASS)
4. Is Team Playing ON At Least a .400 Road Team? (If NO, PASS)
Is Team Playing Against .600 or Worse At Home? (If NO, PASS)
5. Is Team Playing ON .400 or Better vs The Opponent Last 3 Years, period? (If NO, PASS)
Is Team Playing ON .400 or Better vs The Opponent Last 3 Years at the site of series? (If NO, PASS)
http://www.baseball-reference.com/games/head2head.shtml
Secondary filter:
If only one of last two filters (4-5) is sub .400 (over .600), go to secondary filter. Add the two records under 4) (i.e. road record of Play-On Team plus reverse home record of Play-against team). And add to this the two records under 5). Use the L3 years to date; not the L3 seasons. This total has to be .450 or more for the play to stand.
Step 4 - no, a 32-24 road record would be 32/56 for .571
Step 5 - 3 yr history is taken from baseball-reference.com, you can plug each combination of teams in and select which years you want to cover.
Secondary Filter: This filter comes into play to determine if a team can still be a play when one of the following records is sub .400 or above .600.
Play on teams current season road or home record
Play against teams current season home or road record
Play on teams last 3 years record vs opponent
Play on teams last 3 years record at opponent
If Team A is your play on team and they have a 20-31 road record (sub 400), but none of the other records are sub 400, the secondary filter is used to see if we can still play them.
Example:
Team A road record 20-31
Team B home record 25-24
Team A record vs Team B last 3 yrs 12-8
Team A record at Team B last 3 yrs 8-4
Add up the records and find the winning pct. The one catch is you have to reverse the Team B home record, since their opponents record is 24-25
20-31
24-25
12-8
8-4
64-68 (.485)
Team A would still be a play despite their poor road record, since they have had success against Team B in the past. Now, if 2 of those records are sub 400, then it is immediately a no play and you dont have to use the secondary filter. |
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