|
If you’re like most bettors, you probably choose to tread lightly in the NBA & college basketball in November, instead choosing to invest your sports betting dollar in football. You probably believe that the season is so long, and that it takes awhile for the pro players to get going, thus accurately gauging the teams for their beginning strengths is difficult. However, you might be missing out on early season opportunities, since I personally believe that the NBA boasts the greatest continuity of any sports league, meaning the handicapper who sticks to basic fundamentals should have an advantage. In reality, there are only a handful of teams every year that undergo personnel changes sizeable enough to be “red-flagged”. Now, the Boston Celtics of 2007-08 are the obvious example of that, and for 2009, there are teams that have made changes, just not on that level. Toronto, San Antonio, Orlando, and Washington are examples of clubs that might respond differently from where they left off this past spring. Other than that, with a high level of continuity in play for the season, it might be easy to spot some overpricing by oddsmakers in this first month. I’m here to sort through some of the basics of early season handicapping in the NBA. Hopefully by the time you are through reading this piece, you will have had many or all of the questions you may have prepared to ask already answered for you. If not, shoot me an e-mail. In many cases, it doesn’t take long for me to dip into the StatFox Database and come up with a quick query or two to satisfy curiosity. For a little background on the study I have conducted, the data I have used goes back three seasons, and I do this for a reason, since I believe that the day the Miami Heat won the title back in June ’06 changed some things in the NBA, and made it feasible to dream of upsets and parity. Since then, we have seen three other different teams win championships, when prior to that, only a few franchises seemed capable. In any case, I took the log of games for October & November from 2006-08 and analyzed them from a variety of perspectives, including different line ranges and movements, divisional or conference scenarios, scoring patterns, types of teams, and much more. General Trends
The last three October-November time periods in the NBA have shown an advantage towards the road team when betting pointspreads, as visitors own a 364-335-10 ATS record, good for 52.1%. Home teams have won more games outright at a 412-296 (58.2%) clip, but it seems that oddsmakers are struggling when assigning home court advantage points early. For the most part, they tend to err of the side of assigning too much generic advantage, when clearly some teams do not deserve such. In terms of totals, oddsmakers have done fairly well, with the results of the last three years in Oct-Nov showing 340 OVER’s, 350 UNDER’s, and 18 Push. Line Moves
One thing oddsmakers have done well is set the opening pointspread numbers to a point where players will move the line a certain way and lose. Totals have been a different story however. Take a look at these Line/Total Move Trends that have been established over the last three seasons:
When bettors have moved a line favoring the home team, they are 122-149-3 ATS (45.0%).
When bettors have move a line favoring the road team, they are 149-163-3 ATS (47.8%).
When bettors have moved the total favoring the OVER, they are 155-144-10 (51.8%).
When bettors have moved the total favoring the UNDER, they are 181-157-7 (53.6%).On larger Line/Total moves, the results differ:
When bettors move an opening number 2.0 or more points favoring the home team, they are 20-13 ATS (60.6%).
When bettors move an opening number 2.0 or more points favoring the road team, they are 27-33-2 ATS (45.0%).
On any line moves of 3.5 points or more, bettors have gone 9-5 ATS for 64.3%.
On total moves of 2.0 points or more, when favoring the OVER, bettors are 85-74-6 (53.4%).
On total moves of 2.0 points or more, when favoring the UNDER, bettors are 96-84-2 (53.3%).
There have been 12 games over the past three seasons in Oct-Nov in which bettors moved a total 7.0 points or more. In those games, the were correct nine times, for 75.0%.Line/Total Range Trends
Overall, underdogs only own a slight advantage in the first month or so of the season over the last three years. Road dogs are 252-232 ATS for 52.1%, while home dogs are 100-102 ATS for 49.5%. Here are some more powerful trends dealing with specific Line/Total Range scenarios:
Double-digit Home Favorites are 43-40 ATS over the last three seasons of NBA in Oct-Nov.
Double-digit Road Favorites are 4-1 ATS over the last three seasons of NBA in Oct-Nov.
Home Favorites of 4-points or less have been shaky in the first month of the season since ’06, going just 60-76-1 ATS, for 44.1%.
Home court advantage has meant very little in games where the final line range is +1 to -1 over the last three Oct-Nov time periods in the NBA, with hosts just 16-25 ATS, for 39.0%.
On very high totals in the first month, or those posted at 215.0 or higher, oddsmakers are basically telling you the game will be high scoring, as the OVER is 17-10 (63.0%) since ’06.Scoring Trends
The amount of points that road or home teams score can be a direct indicator of their chances to win and/or cover games in the first month. Now, of course, these trends are post-facto, but using a strong simulator that projects scores in a game can help give you an edge when applying trends such as these: Home teams that scored <=90 points in Oct-Nov games from 2006-08 were just 21-130 ATS (13.9%)
Road teams that scored <=90 points in Oct-Nov games from 2006-08 were 52-152 ATS (25.5%), giving them nearly twice as much chance to cover at that point total than hosts.
Home teams that scored >=110 points in Oct-Nov games from 2006-08 were 102-38 ATS (73.0%)
Road teams that scored >=110 points in Oct-Nov games from 2006-08 were 72-17 ATS (80.9%).
On totals, in Oct-Nov games where the road team scored in triple-digits, the OVER is 230-46 (83.3%).To summarize what we have learned here, if you believe the visiting club has the chance to score well in a game in the first month, they, and the OVER are solid bets. Alternatively, if a home team that typically isn’t a high scoring club is matched against a solid defensive team, that host is unlikely to cover. Division/Conference Matchup Scenarios
While expecting to see some more definitive trends on division rivalries or more familiar conference matchups, it turns out that the most distinct betting systems in the earaly going of an NBA season have come from East versus West matchups. Take a look. In Oct-Nov non-conference games from 2006-08, double-digit favorites owned a healthy mark of 20-13 ATS, for 60.6%.
Small home favorites in the East versus West matchups actually proved a worthy bet. Home favorites of 4.0 points or less in Oct-Nov games have gone 26-17 for 60.5% over the L3 years. It seems that the unfamiliarity aspect does give hosts an advantage in those somewhat even matchups.
Alternatively, when the road club in East-West matchups has been definitely better, that home court edge has been minimized. Road favorites in Oct-Nov NBA matchups since ’06 have gone 43-31 ATS (58.1%).Top 4-Bottom 4 Analysis
One of the things I did to separate the different types of teams and their performances in the early season was to categorize a Top 4 and Bottom 4 group of clubs. Basically, for the last three seasons, I took the previous year’s conference finals’ qualifiers and gave them Top 4 designation. I then took the teams with the four worst won-lost records from the prior year and tagged them as Bottom 4. I then studied the first month games of these teams in the follow up year and came up with these angles: Bottom 4 categorized teams have gone just 37-46 ATS for 44.6% over the L3 Oct-Nov time periods in home games.
Bottom 4 teams have gone 42-43 ATS for 49.4% overall on the road in the L3 Oct-Nov time periods, but are 13-9 ATS (59.1%) as double-digit road dogs, and 9-3 ATS (75.0%) when catching 11.5 points or more.
Top 4 teams own a better ATS mark on the road (45-36 ATS, 55.6%) than at home (45-43-2 ATS, 51.1%) over the past three seasons in the first month.
When Bottom 4 teams have matched up against one another in the first month of \the L3 seasons, home teams are 7-2 AlTS (77.8%).
When Top 4 teams have matched up against one another in the first month of the L3 seasons, road teams have held the slight edge. 5-4 ATS (55.6%).
When Top 4 teams have hosted Bottom 4 teams in Oct-Nov games since ’06, the host Top 4 clubs are just 6-6 ATS, but when favored by double-digits, they are 4-0 ATS.
When Bottom 4 teams have hosted Top 4 teams in Oct-Nov games since ’06, the Top 4 clubs are 9-2 ATS (81.8%) on the road.For the record, the teams with the designations for 2009 are:
Top 4: Cleveland, Orlando, Denver, LA Lakers
Bottom 4: Sacramento, Washington, LA Clippers, Oklahoma City Hopefully I’ve given you enough to move forward with in this first month of the 2009 NBA season. If not, there’s always FoxSheets! Good luck.
|
|
