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RWB
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Apr 2006
Posts: 685

MLB System Evaluation

I've been tracking a very simple strategy that I came up with a couple weeks ago. I'm not suggesting anyone to play these picks but I've had some success and wanted to share. Here is the strategy:

Play dogs between +130 and + 150 against starting pitchers with a losing record.

Basic reasoning: You are betting against pitchers with a losing record and returning much better than even odds.

Couple of ideas here. These are not giant dogs, yet good solid dogs. You are going to avoid most dominate pitchers because A. they most likely aren't going to have a losing record and B. typically they yield much higher odds.

Here are the results since I started tracking last week. Note: I missed a few days due to work so probably missed a few plays.

Jun 17 07:06 PM COL ROCKIES +137 Lose 100
Jun 19 07:06 PM LOS DODGERS+132 Win 132
Jun 19 07:06 PM COL ROCKIES +150 Lose 100
Jun 22 04:05 PM HOU ASTROS +131 Win 131
Jun 22 04:05 PM MIA MARLINS +140 Lose 100
Jun 22 04:11 PM MIL BREWERS +138 Win 138
Jun 23 01:06 PM MIN TWINS +139 Win 139
Jun 25 10:06 PM CIN REDS +138 Lose 100
Jun 28 10:11 PM PHI PHILLIES +150 Win 150
Jun 29 04:06 PM ARI DBACKS +137 Lose 100
Jun 30 01:36 PM TOR BLUEJAYS +130 Lose 100
Jul 03 06:06 PM MIL BREWERS +140 Win 140
Jul 03 08:11 PM HOU ASTROS +132 Win 132

So my record after 13 games is 7-6 and I'm +362. That's the beauty here, if I had lost the first 5 games my record would be 5-8 and I would only be down -101. So I think there is a sweet spot here of being profitable with a .500 or even slightly below record.

Betting emotionally (which is important to me) is vanished because you have a simple set of parameters.

RWB




NCAA BB '13-14 (5-4)
SOCCER '13-14 (2-5-1)
NBA '13-14 (1-6)

Old Post 07-04-13 03:30 PM
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RWB
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Apr 2006
Posts: 685

July 4 Plays

Jul 04 10:35 AM MIL BREWERS +143
Jul 04 10:35 AM CLE INDIANS +130
Jul 04 10:35 AM HOU ASTROS +145
Jul 04 10:35 AM SD PADRES +141

Crap! First day of posting and 4 games hit the parameters.

Probably best to wait until a pitcher has a min of 5 or more starts, which would eliminate the MIL game. Same principle that you wouldn't want to really start this kind of system until a couple months into the season so pitchers can accumulate a meaningful W/L record.

Best of luck!

RWB




NCAA BB '13-14 (5-4)
SOCCER '13-14 (2-5-1)
NBA '13-14 (1-6)

Old Post 07-04-13 03:44 PM
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dg84


Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 1037

Interesting concept & pretty straight forward & simple. I think I'll follow along.

Old Post 07-04-13 04:04 PM
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ronnie111
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Registered: Feb 2009
Posts: 4402

RWB

it's these kind of basic methods that can keep you in the game all year. the simple methods have been successful for me in football for quite a few years. bol with it.




have you ever felt like the world is a tuxedo and you're a pair of brown shoes?

Old Post 07-04-13 04:34 PM
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RWB
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Apr 2006
Posts: 685

Results

As fate would have it the day you post your plays you get the collar. Bad finishes for two of the games but a loss is a loss as a win is a win. We'll try again tomorrow.

Jul 04 10:35 AM MIL BREWERS +143 (loss)
Jul 04 10:35 AM CLE INDIANS +130 (loss)
Jul 04 10:35 AM HOU ASTROS +145 (loss)
Jul 04 10:35 AM SD PADRES +141 (loss)

Remember this system is still in evaluation mode and even with this horrible day the overall record is now 7-10 and we are only down -$38.

RWB




NCAA BB '13-14 (5-4)
SOCCER '13-14 (2-5-1)
NBA '13-14 (1-6)

Old Post 07-05-13 12:28 AM
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