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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
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NCAAB
Long Sheet
Tuesday, February 26
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INDIANA (24 - 3) at MINNESOTA (18 - 9) - 2/26/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 33-21 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 33-21 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in a home game where the total is 135 to 139.5 over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in February games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 3-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 3-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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TOWSON ST (16 - 13) at GEORGE MASON (17 - 11) - 2/26/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGE MASON is 53-34 ATS (+15.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
GEORGE MASON is 34-16 ATS (+16.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
TOWSON ST is 47-29 ATS (+15.1 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
GEORGE MASON is 2-2 against the spread versus TOWSON ST over the last 3 seasons
GEORGE MASON is 4-0 straight up against TOWSON ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MEMPHIS (24 - 3) at XAVIER (15 - 11) - 2/26/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) after scoring 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
XAVIER is 153-119 ATS (+22.1 Units) after a conference game since 1997.
XAVIER is 161-126 ATS (+22.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
XAVIER is 97-65 ATS (+25.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
MEMPHIS is 121-87 ATS (+25.3 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1997.
MEMPHIS is 194-151 ATS (+27.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
MEMPHIS is 128-81 ATS (+38.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
XAVIER is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
XAVIER is 1-0 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 1-0 straight up against XAVIER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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AUBURN (9 - 18) at ALABAMA (18 - 9) - 2/26/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
AUBURN is 34-20 ATS (+12.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
AUBURN is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
AUBURN is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
AUBURN is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) after a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
AUBURN is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
ALABAMA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all home games this season.
ALABAMA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home lined games this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
AUBURN is 3-1 against the spread versus ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
ALABAMA is 4-1 straight up against AUBURN over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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LOYOLA-IL (14 - 14) at DETROIT (18 - 10) - 2/26/2013, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 13-23 ATS (-12.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 5-2 against the spread versus LOYOLA-IL over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 7-0 straight up against LOYOLA-IL over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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WI-MILWAUKEE (8 - 22) at WI-GREEN BAY (15 - 13) - 2/26/2013, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WI-GREEN BAY is 31-18 ATS (+11.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
WI-MILWAUKEE is 157-116 ATS (+29.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1997.
WI-MILWAUKEE is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in February games over the last 3 seasons.
WI-MILWAUKEE is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent since 1997.
WI-MILWAUKEE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
WI-GREEN BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus WI-MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
WI-MILWAUKEE is 3-2 straight up against WI-GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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WRIGHT ST (18 - 10) at IL-CHICAGO (15 - 13) - 2/26/2013, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IL-CHICAGO is 105-75 ATS (+22.5 Units) in all home games since 1997.
IL-CHICAGO is 105-75 ATS (+22.5 Units) in home lined games since 1997.
IL-CHICAGO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
WRIGHT ST is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in road games this season.
WRIGHT ST is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in road lined games this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
IL-CHICAGO is 3-2 against the spread versus WRIGHT ST over the last 3 seasons
WRIGHT ST is 4-1 straight up against IL-CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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YOUNGSTOWN ST (16 - 12) at VALPARAISO (22 - 7) - 2/26/2013, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VALPARAISO is 17-9 ATS (+7.1 Units) in all games this season.
VALPARAISO is 17-9 ATS (+7.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
VALPARAISO is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
VALPARAISO is 3-3 against the spread versus YOUNGSTOWN ST over the last 3 seasons
VALPARAISO is 4-2 straight up against YOUNGSTOWN ST over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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WYOMING (18 - 9) at AIR FORCE (15 - 10) - 2/26/2013, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WYOMING is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) against conference opponents this season.
WYOMING is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games in February games over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in road games after a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
WYOMING is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
WYOMING is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) after scoring 60 points or less this season.
AIR FORCE is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all home games this season.
AIR FORCE is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in home lined games this season.
AIR FORCE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games against conference opponents this season.
AIR FORCE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
AIR FORCE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
AIR FORCE is 3-1 against the spread versus WYOMING over the last 3 seasons
AIR FORCE is 3-2 straight up against WYOMING over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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FLORIDA (22 - 4) at TENNESSEE (16 - 10) - 2/26/2013, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 33-21 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 33-21 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
TENNESSEE is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all home games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in February games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 248-203 ATS (+24.7 Units) in all games since 1997.
FLORIDA is 248-203 ATS (+24.7 Units) in all lined games since 1997.
FLORIDA is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 3-2 against the spread versus FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA is 3-2 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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WAKE FOREST (12 - 14) at FLORIDA ST (14 - 13) - 2/26/2013, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WAKE FOREST is 60-87 ATS (-35.7 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1997.
WAKE FOREST is 58-86 ATS (-36.6 Units) in road games after a conference game since 1997.
WAKE FOREST is 30-48 ATS (-22.8 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival since 1997.
WAKE FOREST is 82-115 ATS (-44.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
WAKE FOREST is 43-78 ATS (-42.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
WAKE FOREST is 15-8 ATS (+6.2 Units) in all games this season.
WAKE FOREST is 15-8 ATS (+6.2 Units) in all lined games this season.
WAKE FOREST is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) as an underdog this season.
FLORIDA ST is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
FLORIDA ST is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points since 1997.
FLORIDA ST is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all home games this season.
FLORIDA ST is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home lined games this season.
FLORIDA ST is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) against conference opponents this season.
FLORIDA ST is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in February games over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA ST is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after a conference game this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA ST is 3-1 against the spread versus WAKE FOREST over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA ST is 3-1 straight up against WAKE FOREST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NEBRASKA (13 - 14) at WISCONSIN (19 - 8) - 2/26/2013, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEBRASKA is 69-101 ATS (-42.1 Units) in road games since 1997.
NEBRASKA is 69-101 ATS (-42.1 Units) in road lined games since 1997.
NEBRASKA is 59-87 ATS (-36.7 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1997.
NEBRASKA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games in February games over the last 3 seasons.
NEBRASKA is 58-83 ATS (-33.3 Units) in road games after a conference game since 1997.
NEBRASKA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
NEBRASKA is 56-82 ATS (-34.2 Units) after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
WISCONSIN is 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEBRASKA is 2-1 against the spread versus WISCONSIN over the last 3 seasons
WISCONSIN is 3-0 straight up against NEBRASKA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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02-26-13 11:37 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12017
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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Tuesday, February 26
-- Indiana (-8) beat Minnesota 88-81 Jan 12, going 26-40 on foul line, as they beat Gophers for third time in last four series games; Indiana lost three of last four visits here. Gophers were 11-27 on arc, 12-15 on line in first game; they've lost four of five and 8 of last 11 games, losing last two by 21-26 points. Big Dozen home underdogs of 8 or less points are 8-13 vs spread. Indiana is 6-1 SU on road, 2-3 as road favorite; four of its six road wins are by 8+ points.
-- George Mason (-3) shot 57% inside arc, was +8 in turnovers as they won 77-67 at Towson Jan 23, its 16th straight series win- they've won last seven series games here, all by 9+ points. CAA home favorites of 6 or less points are 11-23 vs spread. Mason is 0-5 vs spread in its last five home games, losing three of last four SU. Gritty Towson (1-31 LY) won five of last six games, is 5-2 as a CAA road underdog this year.
-- Xavier lost 72-68 at Memphis LY; Musketeers won four of last five home games, losing last game to VCU by 4- they're 4-5 last nine games overall. Memphis is unbeaten in C-USA; its last loss was December 15 to Louisville (87-78, +4). Tigers covered four of last six as the favorite. Xavier is 0-2 vs top 50 teams, losing to VCU and by 15 to Cincinnati. Memphis won six of last seven games vs top 100 teams.
-- Auburn (+3.5) trailed Alabama 15-2, then held Tide to 14 second half points in weird 49-37 home win Feb 6, Tigers' only win in their last 12 games, and first over Bama in last six tries, losing last three visits here by 12-2-6 points. Auburn lost its last five games, scoring 54.3 ppg in last three. SEC double digit home favorites are 11-16 vs spread. Alabama is 4-1 since Auburn loss, losing in triple overtime at LSU Saturday.
-- Detroit (-3.5) won 75-63 at Loyola Jan 26, after trailing by 7 early in second half; Titans won last nine series games, winning last three here, by 20-10-15 points- they also beat Ramblers by 21-9 in last two league tourneys. Loyola lost six of last seven games, is 3-2 as home dog, with three of five Horizon road losses by 3 or less points. Horizon double digit home favorites are 7-4 against the spread.
-- Green Bay (-6.5) outscored Milwaukee 35-15 over last 14:42 as they beat Panthers 74-54 on road Jan 25, its first win in last four series tilts. UWM lost three of last four visits here, losing by 4-7-5 points. Horizon double digit home favorites are 7-4 vs spread. Milwaukee won last two games after losing nine of previous 10; they're 3-4 as road dogs- six of its seven road losses are by 10+. Green Bay is 3-2 as a home favorite.
-- Wright State (-8.5) was 2-19 from arc, trailed 26-14 at half of a 55-49 home loss to Ill-Chicago Jan 26, its first series loss in last seven games. Raiders won last three visits here by 17-8-4 points; they've won three in row on Horizon road, covered five of six. Horizon home underdogs of 3 or less points are 7-5 vs spread. UIC lost five of last six games; they are 4-2 at home in Horizon, losing to Valpo by 5, Cleveland State by 11.
-- Youngstown (+3.5) led 19-9 early, coasted to 80-68 win over Valpo Jan 30, the third straight series win for home side; Penguins lost last five visits here, by 19-8-4-24-14 points. Crusaders won six of last seven, are 3-3 as home favorites, winning at home by 24-6-12-31-25 points, losing to Loyola/Detroit. Penguins are 1-3 as Horizon road underdog. Horizon double digit home favorites are 7-4 against the spread.
-- Wyoming (-6.5) was just 5-28 from arc in 57-48 home loss Jan 26 to Air Force, its fifth loss in last eight series games. Cowboys lost seven of last eight visits here, winning 64-53 LY to break long skid. MWC home favorites of 5 or less points are 8-4 vs spread. Air Force lost four of last five games, is 5-1 at home in MWC, with only loss to Colorado State by 3. Wyoming failed to cover its last four games as a road underdog.
-- Tennessee won its last five games, winning in four OTs at A&M last game; Vols swept Florida LY, after Gators had won previous four series games. Florida lost five of last six visits here, but most of those were in Pearl era in Knoxville. Florida is 12-2 in SEC, but 2-5 vs spread in last seven games; they're 5-2 as road favorites, with all five road wins by 17+ points. SEC single digit home underdogs are 15-8 vs spread.
-- Wake Forest (+3) hammered Florida State 71-46 at home 17 days ago, holding FSU is 32.6% from floor in its first series win in last five tries. Deacons lost five of last six visits here, losing last two by 4-24 points. Seminoles lost four of last five games, are 0-4 as home favorite, 3-3 SU at home, with wins by 3-2-3 points. ACC home favorites of 6 or less points are 8-15 vs spread. Wake is 3-4 as an ACC road underdog.
-- Nebraska beat Iowa Saturday after being down by 19; they're 3-2 last five home games, but lost 47-41 (+8.5) at home to Wisconsin Jan 6, as Badgers survived 3-13 foul shooting, their third league win in row over Huskers, by 24-5-6 points. Wisconsin is 2-4 as home favorite, winning at home by 9-23-1-4-3-22 points. Big Dozen double digit home favorites are 11-8 vs spread. Cornhuskers are 3-3 vs spread as a road underdog.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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02-26-13 11:38 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12017
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NCAAB
Tuesday, February 26
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Study group: Tuesday’s Top 25 NCB betting notes
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(17) Memphis at Xavier (+3.5)
The Tigers' 17-game win streak is tied with Akron for the longest active streak in the nation, and it's the fifth-longest stretch in school history. The Musketeers have won three of their last five but are coming off a 75-71 loss to Virginia Commonwealth on Saturday in which they blew a 17-point lead in the second half. Xavier is 9-3 at home this season with all three losses coming by five points or less — against Vanderbilt, Wofford and Virginia Commonwealth. Eight of Xavier's 11 losses have been by seven points or fewer, including six defeats by four points or fewer. The Musketeers are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
(1) Indiana at Minnesota (+5.5)
The Hoosiers have a 1 1/2-game lead over Michigan State in the Big Ten race and have won four straight contests. Indiana is well-rested with seven days in between games after winning at Michigan State on Feb. 19. Minnesota has suffered back-to-back losses of 21 points against Iowa and 26 to Ohio State. The Golden Gophers are averaging only 51.4 points over their last five contests and are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
(6) Florida at Tennessee (+9)
Florida, which has won four of five, can clinch a double-bye in the SEC Tournament by winning at surging Tennessee. The Gators lead the 14-team conference by two games after Saturday’s 71-54 revenge win over Arkansas. Florida has held 19 opponents under 60 points, while the Gators have failed to hit 60 only once. The Vols have scored over 80 points in three straight regular-season SEC games for the first time since 2000 and are 5-0 ATS in their last five overall.
Nebraska at (16) Wisconsin (-15.5)
Wisconsin has won five of its last six games, including a 65-62 OT win over the Wolverines on Feb. 9 and, most recently, a 69-41 rout of Northwestern on Wednesday. The Badgers prevailed 47-41 over Nebraska in their first meeting on Jan. 6 and have won four in a row in the head-to-head series. The Cornhuskers are 0-8 against ranked teams this season.
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NCAAB
Top 25 Short Sheet
Tuesday, February 26
Indiana at Minnesota, 7:00 ET ESPN
Indiana: 8-2 ATS after one or more consecutive overs
Minnesota: 3-14 ATS after scoring 65 points or less 2 straight games
Memphis at Xavier, 7:00 ET ESPN2
Memphis: 4-14 ATS after playing 2 consecutive home games
Xavier: 51-32 ATS after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers
Florida at Tennessee, 9:00 ET ESPN
Florida: 12-2 OVER when the total is 120 to 129.5
Tennessee: 8-2 ATS as an underdog
Nebraska at Wisconsin, 9:00 ET BTN
Nebraska: 0-6 ATS off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog
Wisconsin: 17-4 ATS after 2 straight blowout wins by 20 points or more
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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02-26-13 11:41 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12017
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Wednesday Late Action
February 27, 2013
Both the Pac-12 and the Mountain West conferences get lost in the shuffle during tournament time with most of the focus falling on the East Coast and Midwest programs. Six teams inside the Pac-12 own at least 18 victories, while four clubs in the MWC have reached the 20-win mark already. We'll start the late look at the college card in Albuquerque with two rivals that are bound for the NCAA Tournament.
San Diego State at New Mexico - 10:15 PM EST
The Lobos begin this week ranked third in the latest RPI ratings, as New Mexico (23-4 SU and 14-10-2 ATS) seeks its fourth consecutive victory. Steve Alford's team improved to 10-2 in Mountain West play after knocking off Colorado State on Saturday, 91-82 to cash outright as six-point road underdogs. Kendall Williams lifted the Lobos to a strong second-half surge after trailing by three at halftime, as the guard put up 46 points, including 10 three-pointers.
The Aztecs (20-7 SU, 12-9-1 ATS) are fresh off consecutive home victories over Wyoming and Nevada by double-digits, but barely missed cashing in Saturday's triumph over the Wolf Pack as 13 ½-point favorites. San Diego State hasn't had the best luck on the highway, losing four of its last five away from Viejas Arena, including close setbacks to UNLV, Colorado State, and Air Force by a combined 11 points. Steve Fisher's squad is listed as a road underdog for the third time this season (eliminating the three times in neutral-site situations), as the Aztecs posted a 1-0-1 ATS record the first two times in this role.
San Diego State cruised past New Mexico in its first meeting this season in Southern California, 55-34 as 3 ½-point favorites. The 34 points was obviously a season-low for the Lobos, who shot a dreadful 25% from the field. New Mexico has lost each of the last two home matchups with San Diego State, but the Lobos own a perfect 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS record at The Pit in conference play.
Colorado at Stanford - 11:00 PM EST
The Cardinal's hopes at an NCAA tournament bid are slipping away after losing three of the last four games, including a pair of home defeats to USC and UCLA. Stanford (16-12 SU and 11-14-1 ATS) returns to Maples Pavilion following a split in the Beaver State at Oregon State and Oregon last week, while getting thumped by 11 points in Eugene on Saturday.
Things don't get easier for the Cardinal tonight, who faces a Colorado (18-8 SU, 14-10 ATS) squad that seeks its ninth conference victory, while seeking a season sweep of Stanford. The Buffaloes pounded the Cardinal, 75-54 in Boulder on January 24 to cash easily as four-point favorites. CU grabbed a 15-point halftime advantage and never looked back as the Buffs held Stanford to 31% shooting from the floor.
Tad Boyle's club has won four of their last five games, with the lone loss coming at the buzzer in overtime to Arizona State. Colorado has cashed in four of five opportunities as a road underdog in conference play, including outright victories at Oregon, Oregon State, and Washington State over the last month. Nine of the last 10 games for the Buffaloes have finished 'under' the total, including six straight away from Boulder.
Arizona State at UCLA - 11:30 PM EST
Two of the squads seeking to catch Arizona atop the Pac-12 hook up in Los Angeles tonight as the Bruins are turning the corner. Since losing at home in overtime to USC to wrap up in January, Ben Howland's team is rolling with four victories in the last five contests. The Bruins (20-7 SU, 11-15 ATS) avenged the home defeat to the Trojans by blasting USC this past Sunday, 75-59 as short road favorites.
The Sun Devils (20-8, 14-9 ATS) wrapped up January with three consecutive victories, but ASU is just 3-4 SU/ATS the last seven contests. The 'under' has cashed in six straight games for Arizona State, while being listed as an underdog for the second time in the previous seven contests. ASU has cashed four of five times in conference play as a road 'dog, as the Sun Devils look for the season sweep of the Bruins after drilling UCLA, 78-60 in late January as three-point home 'dogs.
Since starting conference play at 2-0, the Bruins have failed to cover four of their previous five games at Pauley Pavilion. UCLA has alternated 'overs' and 'unders' in each of the last nine games, coming off an 'under' in Sunday's blowout of USC. The Bruins have failed to cover three straight contests this season, while posting a 2-8 ATS record off an ATS win.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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02-27-13 11:31 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12017
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Bracketology Update
February 26, 2013
As usual, we break down the projected matchups by each region, beginning with the sub-regionals, which this year will begin on Thursday, March 21. Straight-up records and RPI are thru Sunday, February 24. Remember, Selection Sunday is less than three weeks away!
EAST REGIONAL (Washington, D.C.)
At Philadelphia...
1 Duke (SUR 23-3, RPI-1) vs. 16 Robert Morris (20-9, 126)...So much for F Ryan Kelly's injury keeping the Blue Devils off of the top line. Sure, Duke has lost a few games, but so has everyone else, and by the time Kelly returns to active duty, Coach K is likely to have earned another top seed. With lots of alumni in the Northeast, the Dookies would also be well-supported in the Philly sub-regional. The home team of the Pittsburgh Airport, Robert Morris, has surged ahead of (Emmett) Bryant, the Claire Bees of Long Island, and the pollsters from Quinnipiac in the Northeast Conference, although the Colonials will have to beat Bryant in a revenge match this Thursday before being relatively assured of home-court edge through the upcoming NEC Tourney.
8 UCLA (20-7, 42) vs. 9 Belmont (22-6, 22)...We'll take the Bruins in this one! There is certainly time for the UCLA version to climb free of the sentence of an 8 or 9 seed, and the Westwood bunch looked good in its revenge romp past Southern Cal on Sunday. At least Ben Howland's team looks to be on firm ground on the safe side of the cut line after some wobbles in the last month. Meanwhile, the Belmont version of the Bruins might view a 9 seed as quite a reward, and rest assured no national contenders would be interested in hooking Rick Byrd's boys and star G Ian Clark (18.4 ppg & 54.5% FG shooting!), especially after their romp past capable Ohio U in last weekend's Bracket Busters. The Nashville bunch also must be considered for an at-large berth should it get KO'd (perhaps by dangerous Murray State and G Isaiah Canaan) in the upcoming OVC Tourney, in which Belmont will also have a hometown edge in Music City, where games will be played at the downtown Municipal Auditorium, just a few miles from campus.
At Dayton...
4 Ohio State (20-7, 23) vs. 13 Davidson (21-7, 87)...Wins in the last week over Minnesota & Michigan State have moved Ohio State back into protected seed territory and a likely preferred sub-regional assignment in nearby Dayton, just 70 miles from Columbus. But Thad Matta's Buckeyes are probably going to have to win at least two of their last three reg.-season games and avoid a quick exit in the Big Ten Tourney at Chicago to stay on the radar for a desired spot in Dayton. Bob McKillop's Davidson is no stranger to the Big Dance and will be seeking a return visit after losing honorably (only 69-62) vs. Final Four-bound Louisville in the sub-regional at Portland last March. The Wildcats, who survived an exciting OT Bracket Buster vs. Big Sky leader Montana, will be favored in the fast-approaching SoCon Tourney in the pleasant Blue Ridge Mountain community of Asheville.
5 Kansas State (22-5, 20) vs. 12 Villanova (18-10, 54)...Interspersed among the many Villanova losses are a growing collection of quality wins (Syracuse, Louisville, at UConn, Marquette) that have likely moved the Wildcats to the safe side of the cut line. Getting to 20 reg.-season wins and avoiding an early KO in the Big East Tourney likely earn the bid and complete perhaps Jay Wright's best coaching job at Nova. Another bunch of Wildcats, this one from Manhattan, KS, still has a chance at a protected seed and a preferred sub-regional assignment in Kansas City. Regardless, Bruce Weber's reputation has been sufficiently rehabilitated at KSU after his recent Illinois teams earned the label of underachiever in recent years.
At Lexington...
2 Louisville (22-5, 8) vs. 15 Stony Brook (20-6, 91)...After that puzzling three-game spin-out in mid-January, Louisville has regained its equilibrium and should comfortably qualify for a protected seed. Which means that during the sub-regionals we might have to get used to the very odd sight of the Cardinals wearing their home whites and having the majority of the crowd on their side in what is usually hostile enemy territory at Rupp Arena in Lexington. The home team of the Strat-o-matic headquarters, Long Island's Stony Brook, has almost wrapped up the home-court advantage in the upcoming America East Tourney; a win over the Boston U Terriers on Thursday night would all but sew up that very important edge for Steve Pikiell's Seawolves.
7 Wichita State (24-5, 30) vs. 10 Saint Mary's (24-5, 39)...While Creighton has been wobbling in the Missouri Valley, Gregg Marshall's gritty Wichita State keeps on winning and looks to be safely removed from the bubble as we approach Arch Madness late next week in St. Louis. The Shockers might even think they can get involved in the protected seed discussion if they continue to win thru the conference tourney. Meanwhile, Saint Mary's at-large case looks a lot more convincing after back-to-back wins in a 48-hour period vs. BYU and then Creighton in the BracketBusters. Previously, the Galloping Gaels' RPI was hovering in the low 50s, but now that it has dropped into the high 30s, things are looking up in Moraga. Note that Randy Bennett's side has lost only to Gonzaga since just prior to Christmas.
At Salt Lake City...
3 New Mexico (23-4, 3) vs. 14 Harvard (17-7, 83)...While some regional observers believe Steve Alford is doing it with mirrors in Albuquerque, we're not even sure the Lobos have to win the Mountain West Tourney to secure a protected seed and likely assignment to the preferred Salt Lake City sub-regional. Numbers like an RPI at 3 and Strength of Schedule (SOS) at 4 are usually rewarded handsomely on Selection Sunday. Meanwhile, Tommy Amaker's Harvard continues to set the pace in the Ivies, although the Crimson will need to beat Princeton in a showdown later this week at Jadwin Gym to take complete control in the league race.
6 Saint Louis (21-5, 34) vs. 11 Maryland (19-8, 66)/ Iowa State (19-8, 51)...A couple of weeks ago, we noted that Saint Louis' at-large hopes would likely be determined by an upcoming tough trio of tests vs. A-10 contenders Charlotte, VCU, and Butler. Consider the Billikens having passed with flying colors, winning all of those games and soaring to the top of the conference on the heels of a current 9-game win streak. SLU is now safely clear of the bubble, and HC Jim Crews should be in line to get the Bills' job on a full-time basis. We'll see about Maryland, which has been trying to overcome a suspect RPI due to a soft pre-league slate. But the Terps' recent win over Duke will be a nice chip to cash on Selection Sunday and keeps them within sight of an at-large (although it might be the play-in game) with a strong finish. ISU is a very provisional pick at the moment; we suspect the Cyclones are going to have to beat either Kansas or Oklahoma State in games preceding the Big 12 Tourney to solidify their at-large candidacy.
SOUTH REGIONAL (Arlington, TX)
At Austin...
1 Miami-Florida (22-4, 2) vs. 16 Mercer (20-9, 140)/Norfolk State (18-10, 172)...Miami had been asking for problems in recent weeks, and its unbeaten run in the ACC finally came to an end on Saturday at Wake Forest. That might not be enough to knock the Canes out of a projected number one regional seed as of late February, but there is suspicion among regional observers that Jim Larranaga's squad could have peaked too soon. We'll see. Among the four 16 vs. 16 play-in teams are likely to be champs from the Atlantic Sun and MEAC. From the former, the Mercer Bears have suddenly taken control from the Miami-conquering Florida Gulf Coast Eagles and have the added edge of hosting the conference tourney in Macon, and the tourney no longer involves Belmont (off to the OVC). Remember, Mercer eventually won the CIT last spring. The favorite in the MEAC Tourney will be defending champ Norfolk State, although the Spartans will be entering March without the star of last year's giant killers, C Kyle O'Quinn, now with the NBA Orlando Magic.
8 Colorado (18-8, 29) vs. 9 Illinois (20-9, 33)...Colorado has its share of warts, but the Selection Committee usually rewards teams with a sub-30 RPI and SOS numbers like those owned by the Buffs. Barring a complete collapse in the next two weeks and an early exit at the Pac-12 Tourney, CU is safely away from the cut line. So, too, would seem to be Illinois. Even though the Illini's 5-game win streak was snapped on Sunday at Michigan, John Groce's side has claimed enough scalps (Maui Classic title including wins over North Carolina and Butler, plus possible top regional seeds Indiana & Gonzaga) to temporarily move clear from the bubble. Although Illinois is advised to beat Nebraska and Iowa in its next two games before feeling really comfy about its at-large status.
At Austin...
4 Oklahoma State (20-6, 28) vs. 13 Akron (22-4, 48)...This would be a rematch of a November game at the Puerto Rico Tipoff that was a much more compelling matchup than anyone realized at the time. OSU won that game 69-65 and has collected some other impressive scalps (Tennessee, NC State, Oklahoma, and especially Kansas, the latter on the road, no less); had the Cowboys survived last week's OT rematch vs. Kansas, we think their chances of a protected seed and likely ticket to Austin for the sub-regionals would be even stronger. Now, short of winning the Big 12 Tourney, OSU will need to finish fast and probably beat Kansas State in the reg.-season finale to earn a top-four regional seed, but it remains within reach. As for the Zips, they'll have a case for a stronger seed than a 13 if they continue their nation's best 18-game win streak, but they had better be careful what they wish for, as a 12 or 13 is more desirable than the 8-9-10-11 slots that Akron might believe it deserves. More importantly, has Keith Dambrot's side done enough to secure an at-large bid if it should lose in the upcoming MAC Tourney in Cleveland?
5 Pittsburgh (21-7, 43) vs. 12 Temple (19-8, 49)...We have temporarily moved the Panthers outside of protected seed territory after last week's home loss vs. Notre Dame. Although there is still time (especially with upcoming games vs. South Florida and DePaul) for Pitt to play its way into a 3 or 4 seed with a strong finish and deep run in the Big East Tourney. We've been wondering what to do about Temple for the past month, especially after that unprecedented series of recent Owls white-knucklers (five straight games decided by one point!). But wins over fellow A-10 bubblers La Salle and Charlotte in the last week suggest Fran Dunphy can make it six Big Dances in a row since he took the Temple job in 2007. The win over Syracuse at Madison Square Garden in December will also likely come in handy on Selection Sunday.
At Auburn Hills...
2 Michigan (23-4, 9) vs. 15 Niagara (17-11, 114)...We suspect the Wolverines could wind up anywhere from a 1 to a 4 seed depending upon what transpires in the next few weeks. Although there is little chance John Beilein's team drops out of protected seed territory. That almost surely means a short trip to the NBA Detroit Pistons' home base at the Palace of Auburn Hills for the sub-regionals. The upcoming Metro-Atlantic Tourney looks to be one of the most wide-open in the country; at the moment, we simply list current leader Niagara, although at least six other sides (Loyola-Maryland, Canisius, Iona, Rider, Fairfield, and Manhattan) will think they have a legit chance in Springfield. Remember, the Metro-Atlantic sent two teams (Jimmy Patsos' Loyola & Tim Cluess' Iona) to the Dance last March.
7 Butler (22-6, 31) vs. 10 North Carolina (19-8, 21)...This would be a rematch from Butler's 82-71 win in the Maui Classic way back in Thanksgiving week. While the Bulldogs still appear to be safely into the field of 68, we have dropped them out of protected seed territory for the time being after recent home losses to Charlotte and Saint Louis; Brad Stevens' team likely has to win the A-10 Tourney to climb back into discussion for spot on the fourth line. Meanwhile, Roy Williams' switch to a smaller lineup is paying dividends for the Tar Heels, who are moving clear from bubble trouble with recent convincing home wins over Virginia & NC State. UNC might not be a threat to win it all this season, but the Dance wouldn't be quite the same without the Heels.
At Kansas City...
3 Georgetown (21-4, 13) vs. 14 Bucknell (22-5, 53)...A couple of weeks ago, Georgetown's RPI and SOS were keeping it away from a protected seed. Now, however, the Hoyas have won nine in a row, lead the Big East, and have serious Wooden Award (Otto Porter) and Coach of the Year (JT III) candidates. Maybe a three seed is too low? Whatever, don't overlook reps from Patriot League, which has recorded several sub-regional upsets in recent years. This year, CBS head honcho Les Moonves' alma mater Bucknell is poised to get back to the Dance after last week's win over Fox' Andrea Tantaros' alma mater Lehigh gave the Bison control of the league race and inside track for home-court edge throughout the fast-approaching conference tourney (although the road team won both regular-season meetings between the Bucknell and the Mountain Hawks...why did Lehigh get rid of the "Engineers" nickname, anyway?). Keep in mind, however, that Lehigh could regain the services of star G C.J. McCollum (out since early January with a broken foot) for the conference tourney.
6 UNLV (21-7, 14) vs. 11 Kentucky (19-8, 45)...A few weeks ago, we were wondering about scenarios wherein UNLV might play its way out of the field entirely. But three straight wins (including overcoming the road bugaboo with a win at Wyoming), a solid RPI helped by this year's status of the Mountain West, and continuing to make a fortress out of the Thomas & Mack Center (where the Rebs will likely be favored in the upcoming conference tourney) have moved Dave Rice's squad safely away from the cut line. We're still wondering about Kentucky's Big Dance credentials, especially after the recent injury to C Nerlens Noel. But Coach Cal's Cats still have plenty of McDonald's All-Americans on their roster, and last Saturday's gutsy, scratching and clawing OT win over Mizzou suggests UK is not ready to settle for an NIT bid just yet.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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02-27-13 11:35 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12017
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MIDWEST REGIONAL (Indianapolis)
At Dayton...
1 Indiana (24-3, 6) vs. 16 Southern U (20-8, 191)/Charleston Southern (16-10, 183)...Recent road wins at Ohio State and Michigan State have pushed the Hoosiers to the top of the Big Ten table, which this season is probably going to be good enough for a spot on the top line regardless what transpires in the upcoming conference tourney at Chicago's United Center. The sub-regional trip to Dayton is also a convenient and relatively short drive for Hoosier backers. Expect the Big South and SWAC champs to be two of the four teams in the pair of 16 vs. 16 play-in games. The Big South race has had more twists and turns than the Monaco Grand Prix; Charleston Southern now looks the most likely to emerge, although Scott Cherry's High Point, Chris Holtmann's Gardner-Webb, and Eddie Biedenbach's UNC-Asheville all remain serious threats. Meanwhile, Southern U remains the only SWAC side above .500, although Texas Southern and Arkansas-Pine Bluff are giving spirited chase in the conference race.
8 Virginia Commonwealth (22-6, 36) vs. 9 Missouri (19-8, 37)...While VCU was leading the A-10, we felt obliged to keep the Rams in or near protected seed territory. Now, however, the Rams have dropped out of the top spot in the league, and we are compelled to instead weigh the RPI (36) and SOS (73) numbers that suggest a lower seed. Win the A-10 Tourney, and maybe Shaka Smart's team gets back in the protected seed discussion. Mizzou could have effectively sewn up a spot in the field of 68 had it won at Kentucky last Saturday; instead, the Tigers lost in OT, but a win earlier in the week over Florida is enough to keep Frank Haith's team out of serious bubble trouble for the time being.
At Salt Lake City...
4 Notre Dame (22-6, 44) vs. 13 Valparaiso (22-7, 69)...Since Notre Dame lost 3 of 4 in short span during mid-January, the Irish have stabilized, and recent wins at home vs. Louisville and Cincinnati and at Pittsburgh have moved the Fighting Irish back into the protected seed discussion. Meanwhile, Valparaiso looks like it will have homecourt edge in the Horizon Tourney, but it did last year as well and lost in the league title game vs. Detroit. A title game rematch vs. the Titans (who won on the Crusaders' court two weeks ago) for another trip to the Dance could be on deck for Bryce Drew's squad in a few weeks.
5 Memphis (19-4, 14) vs. 12 Minnesota (18-9, 16)...We've seen this sort of late-season fade before from Minnesota, just 14-28 SU in the month of February since Tubby Smith took over in the 2007-08 campaign. For the moment, however, we are keeping the Golden Gophers in the field on strictly procedural grounds because of high-rated RPI (16) and SOS (1!) numbers. But at some point, Minnesota, which is 3-8 its last 11 thru Feb. 25, is going to have to win a few more games. With the Big Ten's status as the top-rated league this season, the Committee would likely bite on a conference rep with an 8-10 league record, but we don't think the Gophers get in if they finish 7-11 in league play, strong RPI/SOS numbers or not. Losses vs. either Penn State, Nebraska, or Purdue in the next two weeks might force Minny to win the Big Ten Tourney to make the field of 68. Stay tuned. Meanwhile, no such worries at Memphis, which hasn't lost a game since mid-December (at Louisville) while it continues to fly mostly under the radar in C-USA. If the Tigers keep winning, they'll have a solid case for a protected seed.
At Kansas City...
2 Kansas (23-4, 5) vs. 15 Montana (18-6, 106)...Kansas still could end up on the top line, but needs to do a bit more recovering from its recent 3-game losing streak that included a bad, bad loss at TCU (avenged last weekend, by the way, when the Jayhawk starters outscored the Frog starters 34-0 in the first half at the Phog!) and likely win the Big 12 Tourney to reclaim a number one seed. Regardless, it's a pretty safe bet that KU gets placed in the nearby sub-regional at Kansas City's Sprint Center, where the Jayhawks have played before this year and will also compete in the upcoming Big 12 Tourney. In the Big Sky, Montana maintains a slight lead over Weber State, and all indicators point toward a rubber match in Missoula (where the Grizzlies will likely host the conference tourney) for the Big Dance bid in a few weeks.
7 San Diego State (20-7, 32) vs. 10 Cincinnati (19-9, 50)...The Mountain West's standing as the second-rated league means that SDSU hasn't taken too many hits for some recent losses in league play. So expect the Aztecs to be wearing their home whites in the first game of their sub-regional. We're not as sure about Cincinnati, which is sliding the wrong way the past few weeks and has fallen beneath .500 in Big East play. We suspect Mick "The Ghost' Cronin's Bearcats are still safe if they win two of their final three regular-season games, but anything less could be problematic (and two of those games are very difficult ones vs. Louisville & UConn).
At San Jose...
3 Arizona (23-4, 11) vs. 14 South Dakota State (21-9, 84)...We're still a bit skeptical about the credentials of Arizona, which has endured several harrowing escapes; a few well-placed baskets along the way would have the Wildcats in the discussion for seeds between 7-10 instead of those in the protected range. But enough other Pac-12 contenders have stumbled that the Cats have been able to stay at the top of the Pac table, and pre-league wins over Florida, Miami-Fla., and San Diego State have U of A solidly in protected seed territory, and likely ticketed to the San Jose sub-regional. We're going to look forward to the upcoming Summit League Tourney, in which Nate "53-point" Wolters and South Dakota State should have a regional edge in Sioux Falls. North Dakota State and Western Illinois are the top contenders, although we must note that all three were beaten on the road in Bracket Busters action last weekend.
6 Marquette (19-7, 17) vs. 11 Virginia (19-8, 79)...Marquette has been hanging around the higher seeds for the past month and a half, but last Saturday's loss at Villanova probably pushed the Golden Eagles away from protected seed status unless they can take down Syracuse and Notre Dame this week. As for Virginia, the Cavs have been working hard to overcome the damage to their RPI that early losses vs. CAA reps George Mason, Delaware, and Old Dominion might have caused. But Tony Bennett's side has made a fortress in ACC play out of its home John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville, and a home win over Duke on Thursday could go a long way to securing an at-large bid.
WEST REGIONAL (Phoenix)
at San Jose...
1 Gonzaga (27-2, 2) vs. 16 Northeastern (18-10, 148)...We can't overlook Gonzaga as a regional top seed any longer. The Zags haven't lost in WCC play, own a solid résumé including non-conference wins at the Old Spice Classic in Orlando, and would be ahead in the Big 12 with their wins over Kansas State, Baylor, and Oklahoma State. As long as Gonzaga keeps winning, it likely earns the top seed in the West. The upcoming Colonial Tourney figures to be a free-for-all, with expected top seed Northeastern just a couple of buckets away from a four-game losing streak (which includes a setback at subpar NC-Wilmington). Delaware, George Mason, Drexel, and even William & Mary will like their chances next week in Richmond, although the CAA is so downgraded this season that its tourney champ could possibly get sucked into one of the 16 vs. 16 play-in games.
8 Oregon (22-6, 47) vs. 9 Oklahoma (18-8, 19)...We know that Oregon (4-4 SU its last eight) has been hindered by star frosh G Dominic Artis' foot injury during recent games. But the statute of limitations has almost run out for that excuse, and the Ducks had better start winning some games (still-injured Artis or not) if they want to stop their slide down the seeding scale. We knew that it wouldn't take Lon Kruger very long to have Oklahoma back into the Dance; the Sooners, with wins over Kansas & Oklahoma State in their back pockets, look in good shape for an at-large. Which would be Kruger's record fifth Dance appearance with a different school (Kansas St., Florida, Illinois, and UNLV prior).
At Philadelphia...
4 Syracuse (22-5, 12) vs. 13 La Tech (24-3, 52)...We're finally thinking that Syracuse might not play its way back onto the top line. The Orange have stumbled a few too many times in Big East play to warrant a number one regional seed, and last Saturday's home loss vs. Georgetown will make it hard to climb back to a number one regional slot. Although the Cuse still seems a good bet to stay in protected seed territory. Along with other mid-majors like Belmont, Middle Tennessee, and Akron, La Tech (with 16 SU wins in a row) might feel as if it has a legit at-large case should it lose in the upcoming WAC Tourney. Just in case, we suggest the Bulldogs take care of business in the event at the Orleans Hotel Arena in Las Vegas. Then hold their breath while suitors begin to line up for a chance to talk to up-and-coming HC Michael White, likely destined for greener pastures very soon.
5 Wisconsin (19-8, 24) vs. 12 Creighton (22-7/41)/La Salle (19-7, 38)...Of all of the great coaching jobs done by Wisconsin's Bo Ryan over the years, some regional observers think this year might be his masterpiece. The Badgers are again punching above their weight, but this time without any shot-creating elements (like Jordan Taylor the past few years) on the roster. Meanwhile, both Iowa State and La Salle seem destined to ride the bubble into Selection Sunday and are obviously straddling the cut line. The Explorers, who haven't danced in 21 years, avoided a bad loss on Sunday when rallying to beat Rhode Island, but still have a bit more work to do, especially after last week's loss vs. Big Five rival Temple. A strong finish is what Creighton might now incredibly need just to make the field of 68, as its late-season slide continued in the BracketBusters loss at Saint Mary's. Now 5-6 in their last 11 games, the Bluejays' skid has endured for too long to be considered just a blip on the Big Dance radar screen, as Greg McDermott's side has officially played itself into bubble trouble.
At Lexington...
2 Florida (22-4, 7) vs. 15 Long Beach State (17-10, 115)...There are times we think Florida looks like the best team in the country. But the Gators have flopped inexplicably on four different occasions, which also happen to be their only games when seriously challenged. A bit of Secretariat in the Gators, romping home most nights but failing when eyeballed deep in the stretch? (And yes, Secretariat did lose three times in his Triple Crown year of 1973.) That's enough to keep Billy Donovan's team off the top line, at least for the moment. Long Beach State, a loser at home vs. Stephen F. Austin in its Bracket Buster, doesn't look as menacing as last year, but still leads the Big West and will be the favorite when that conference tourney convenes at the Anaheim Honda Center in a few weeks.
7 NC State (19-8, 25) vs. 10 Middle Tennessee (25-4, 27)...NC State remains a bit of an enigma, loaded with NBA-caliber talent but also an unnerving example (for Wolfpack fans, at least) of the parts being greater than the sum. Which is not the first time we have said that about a Mark Gottfried-coached team. Still, we would keep an eye on the Raleigh bunch. It is fair to ask whether Kermit Davis' red-hot MTSU (RPI 27) will have an at-large case if it blows the Sun Belt Tourney, which it also did as a favorite last March. The Blue Raiders won't want to chance it, however, and could be one of those mid-majors everyone wants to avoid in the Dance, especially considering the couple of games they won in the NIT last spring.
At Auburn Hills...
3 Michigan State (23-5, 9) vs. 14 Stephen F. Austin (23-3, 78)...After MSU was talking about securing a spot on the top line, last week's losses to Indiana and Ohio State have temporarily cooled all of that discussion in East Lansing. We're still keeping Tom Izzo's Spartans as a protected seed and assume their sub-regional assignment will be to nearby Auburn Hills (where, if Michigan is involved, as expected, in the other half of the brackets, crowd dynamics could be delicious, with fans of the Wolverines and Spartans offering throaty support for opponents of the other). We're sure MSU or any other entry will not sleep on well-coached Stephen F. Austin, which fired a warning shot to the field with its Bracket Busters win at Long Beach State. Earlier, SFA won at Norman vs. Lon Kruger's likely NCAA-bound Oklahoma. Could the Jacks (whose RPI was among the nation's leaders into January) have a chance at an at-large spot if they blow the Southland Tourney? Lookalikes: SFA HC Danny Kaspar and CNN political analyst Alex Castellanos.
6 Colorado State (21-6, 15) vs. 11 Cal (18-9, 49)...Despite a pair of losses last week vs. MW heavyweights UNLV & New Mexico, CSU remains safely into the field of 68, buoyed by an RPI that is paying a lot of respect to the Mountain West this season. To get a protected seed, however, we now suspect that Larry Eustachy's senior-leaden Rams are going to have to win the conference tourney in Las Vegas. A first-time welcome to this year's projected field of 68 for surging Cal, the talk of the Pac-12 in recent weeks with a five-game win streak that includes victories over likely NCAA invitees Arizona, UCLA, and Oregon. Now the Golden Bears get to finish their regular-season slate with three home games at Haas Pavilion before the Pac-12 Tourney at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. They're getting their dancing shoes ready in Berkeley.
Last four in: Maryland, Creighton, La Salle, Iowa State.
Last four out: Tennessee, Ole Miss, Arizona State, Boise State.
Next four out: Alabama, Southern Miss, Charlotte, Baylor.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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02-27-13 11:36 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12017
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Bubble Update
February 23, 2013
Conference Tournament Look-Ahead
Following is a late-February look at the major "board" conferences and their chances of sending multiple entries to the NCAA Tournament. We've divided the teams into three categories--Solid, Looking Good, and Bubble.
Solid is self-explanatory. Looking Good teams can expect an NCAA invitation as long as they don't slump badly in the next few weeks. Bubble teams, however, remain at the mercy of the Tourney Committee, and desperately need every win to keep their Big Dance hopes alive.
Keep in mind that nearly every Division I team can qualify for an automatic Big Dance berth by winning its conference tournament. In the meantime, as always, remember that the number of upsets in conference tournaments can alter the look of the Big Dance.
Also included below are conference tourney sites and dates; Conference Power Rankings (thru Feb. 20); and last year's postseason participants, including NCAA, NIT, CBI, and CIT action.
ACC--Solid...Miami-Florida, Duke, NC State. Looking Good...North Carolina. Bubble...Maryland, Virginia. Conference Power Rating-4th. Notes...Tourney March 14-17 at Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro, NC. Last year...NCAA-5 (North Carolina-Elite Eight, NC State-Sweet 16, Florida State-3rd round, Duke-2nd round, Virginia-2nd round); NIT-1 (Miami-Florida-2nd round).
ATLANTIC TEN--Solid...Butler, VCU. Looking Good...Saint Louis, La Salle. Bubble...Temple, Charlotte, UMass. Conference-7th. Notes...Tourney March 14-17 at Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY. Last year...NCAA-4 (Xavier-Sweet 16, Saint Louis-3rd round, St. Bonaventure-2nd round, Temple-2nd round); NIT-4 (UMass-semifinals, Dayton, La Salle, Saint Joseph's); CBI-1 (Butler-semifinals).
BIG EAST--Solid...Syracuse, Marquette, Louisville, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati. Bubble...Villanova, St. John's. Conference-3rd. Notes...Tourney March 12-16 at Madison Square Garden, New York City, NY. Last year...NCAA-9 (Louisville-Final Four, Syracuse-Elite Eight, Cincinnati-Sweet 16, Marquette-Sweet 16, Georgetown-3rd round, South Florida-3rd round, UConn-2nd round, Notre Dame-2nd round, West Virginia-2nd round); NIT-1-(Seton Hall-2nd round), CBI-1 (Pittsburgh-Champs).
BIG TEN--Solid...Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin. Looking Good...Illinois. Bubble...Iowa, Minnesota. Conference-1st. Notes...Tourney March 14-17 at United Center, Chicago, IL. Last year...NCAA-6 (Ohio State-Final Four, Indiana-Sweet 16, Michigan State-Sweet 16, Wisconsin-Sweet 16, Purdue-3rd round, Michigan-2nd round); NIT-3 (Minnesota-2nd place, Iowa-2nd round, Northwestern-2nd round).
BIG XII--Solid...Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State. Looking Good...Oklahoma. Bubble-Iowa State, Baylor. Conference-5th. Notes...Tourney March 13-16 at Sprint Center, Kansas City, MO. Last year...NCAA-5 (Kansas-2nd place, Baylor-Elite Eight, Iowa State-3rd round, Kansas State-3rd round, Texas-2nd round).
BIG WEST--Conference tourney champ will be only Big Dance rep. Conference-20th. Notes...Tourney March 14-16 at Honda Center, Anaheim, CA. Last year...NCAA-1 (Long Beach State-2nd round); CIT-2 (UC Santa Barbara, CS Fullerton).
COLONIAL--Conference tourney champ will be only Big Dance rep. Notes...Tourney March 9-11 at Richmond Coliseum, Richmond, VA. Last year...NCAA-1 (Virginia Commonwealth-3rd round); NIT-1 (Drexel-Quarterfinals); CIT-2 (Old Dominion-Quarterfinals, Georgia State).
CONFERENCE USA--Solid...Memphis. Bubble...Southern Miss. Conference-11th. Notes...Tourney March 13-16 at BOK Center, Tulsa, OK. Last year...NCAA-2 (Memphis-2nd round, Southern Miss-2nd round); NIT-2 (Marshall, UCF); CIT-1 (Rice-Quarterfinals).
HORIZON--Bubble...Valparaiso, Detroit. Conference-12th. Notes...Tourney first round March 5 at campus sites; quarters and semis March 8-9 at home of regular-season champion, also the number one seed; Final March 12 at home of highest-remaining seed. Last year...NCAA-1 (Detroit-2nd round); NIT-2 (Cleveland State, Valparaiso); CBI-1 (Butler-Quarterfinals); CBI-(UW-Milwaukee).
MID-AMERICAN--Looking Good...Akron. Bubble...Ohio. Conference-17th. Notes...Tourney first round March 11 at campus sites; quarters, semis, and Final March 13-16 at Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH. Last year...NCAA-1 (Ohio-Sweet 16); NIT-1 (Akron); CIT-3 (Buffalo-2nd round, Bowling Green, Kent State).
MISSOURI VALLEY--Solid...Wichita State, Creighton. Bubble...Indiana State, Northern Iowa. Conference-9th. Notes...Tourney ("Arch Madness") March 7-10 at Scottrade Center, St. Louis, MO. Last year...NCAA-2 (Creighton-3rd round, Wichita State-2nd round); NIT-2 (Illinois State-2nd round, Northern Iowa-2nd round); CBI -1 (Evansville); CIT-2 (Drake-2nd round, Indiana State).
MOUNTAIN WEST--Solid...New Mexico, Colorado State, UNLV, San Diego State. Bubble...Boise State, Air Force, Wyoming. Conference-2nd. Notes...Tourney March 12-16 at Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV. Last year...NCAA-4 (New Mexico-3rd round, Colorado State-2nd round, San Diego State-2nd round, UNLV-2nd round); CBI-2 (TCU-2nd round, Wyoming-2nd round).
PAC 12--Solid...Arizona, Oregon. Looking Good...Colorado, UCLA. Bubble...Arizona State, Cal. Conference-6th. Notes...Tourney March 13-16 at MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, NV. Last year...NCAA-2 (Colorado-3rd round, Cal-First Four); NIT-4 (Stanford-Champs, Washington-Semifinals, Oregon-3rd round, Arizona); CBI-2 (Washington State-2nd place, Oregon State-3rd round).
SEC--Solid...Florida. Looking Good...Missouri. Bubble...Ole Miss, Alabama, Kentucky, Arkansas, Tennessee. Conference-8th. Notes...Tourney March 13-17 at Bridgestone Arena (home of NHL Predators), Nashville, TN. Last year...NCAA-4 (Kentucky-Champs, Florida-Elite Eight, Vanderbilt-3rd round, Alabama-2nd round); NIT-4 (Tennessee-2nd round, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss).
SUN BELT--Looking Good...Middle Tennessee. Conference-14th. Notes...Tourney March 8-11 at Summit Arena, Hot Springs, AR. Last year...NCAA-1 (Western Kentucky-2nd round); NIT-1 (Middle Tennessee-Quarterfinals); CIT-1 (UL-Lafayette).
WEST COAST--Solid...Gonzaga. Bubble...Saint Mary's, BYU. Conference-10th. Notes...Tourney March 6-11 at Orleans Hotel Arena, Las Vegas, NV. Last year...NCAA-3 (Gonzaga-3rd round, BYU-2nd-round, Saint Mary's-2nd round); CBI-1 (San Francisco).
WAC--Bubble...Louisiana Tech. Conference-13th. Notes...Tourney March 12-16 at Orleans Hotel Arena, Las Vegas, NV. Last year...NCAA-1 (New Mexico State-2nd round); NIT-1 (Nevada-Quarterfinals); CIT-2 (Utah State-2nd place, Idaho-2nd round).
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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02-27-13 11:37 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12017
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Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack
-- Minnesota 77, Indiana 73-- Gophers had 17 offensive rebounds in its upset over the top-ranked Hoosiers.
-- Heat 141, Kings 129, double OT-- You watched this game and wonder; how the hell is Sacramento 19-39????
-- Tennessee 64, Florida 58-- If you play in Tennessee's band, do you hear Rocky Top in your sleep every night until you die?
-- Towson State 85, George Mason 81 OT-- My vote for national Coach of the Year is Pat Skerry; 17-13 Tigers were 1-31 LY. 1-31!!!!
-- Air Force 72, Wyoming 66-- Not often the Falcons sweep a conference opponent, but this Air Force team is good. Bad loss for Wyoming.
-- Xavier 64, Memphis 62-- Tigers are unbeaten in C-USA, but this loss is going to hurt their perception nationally.
*****
Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Going thru some NBA numbers...........
We spend a lot of time with college basketball numbers; here are some numbers that explain how NBA teams stack up:
13) FG% defense is a telling stat at any level of basketball; top three NBA teams are Pacers (41.3%), Thunder (43%), Bulls (43.3%). That’s how Chicago has stayed relevant without Derrick Rose—playing great defense.
Worst teams in that important category? Cavaliers (47.7%), Kings (47%), Suns (46.9%).
12) Who defends against 3-pointers the best? Pacers (31.4%), Spurs (32.5%), Bulls (33.6%), again all good teams. Teams that defend 3-balls the worst? Suns (39.1%), Hawks (38.3%), Cavaliers (38.1%).
11) Point differential; Thunder have an average 9.1-point differential, followed by the Spurs (8.5), Miami (7.1).
Worst teams in this category? Charlotte (-9.0), Sacramento (-7.2), Orlando (-6.0), Phoenix (-5.6).
10) Irrelevant stat, but I was curious: Clippers (76), Thunder (70) have by far the most technical fouls, with the Knickerbockers (55), Bulls (53) lagging well behind in 3rd/4th place.
9) Knicks (+3.1) lead NBA in turnover differential, followed by Miami (2.1), Milwaukee (1.8), Clippers (1.7).
Worst teams in this category? Orlando (-2.5), Lakers (-2.0), Warriors (-1.8).
8) What teams force most turnovers? Clippers (16.7), Bucks (16.2), Memphis (16.0), Celtics/Cavs (15.7).
7) Pacers allow 89.4 ppg, least in NBA, followed by Memphis (89.6), Bulls (91.3), Clippers (94.1).
6) Who scores most points? Thunder (106.6 ppg), followed by Houston (106.3), Denver (105.4) and the Spurs (104.3).
5) Miami makes 49.5% of its shots, best in league; Spurs (48.6%) are next, followed by Thunder (48.3%) and Denver (47.4%). Again, all of this is pretty basic. Make shots yourself, prevent the other guys from doing it, and you’ll win. All you need are really good players and a sound approach.
4) Which teams are best from the foul line? Thunder makes 83.3% from the stripe, Warriors make 79.8%, Dallas 79.7%, Spurs 79.0%.
Worst teams? Lakers (thanks, Dwight) 69.0%, Denver, 69.2%, Detroit 69.6%, Atlanta 70.4%.
3) What teams take the most 3-pointers each game? Knicks average 29.0 tries per game, followed by Houston (28.7), Lakers (24.0), Atlanta (23.8).
Which teams try the fewest? Memphis (13.6/game), Chicago (13.9), Charlotte (16.6) and Utah (16.7).
2) Which teams make the highest percentage of their 3’s? Thunder (39.2%) lead league, followed by Golden State (39.0%), Miami (39%) and the Hawks (38.4%). Minnesota trails NBA, making only 30% behind the arc.
1) Oklahoma City is +484 points with Kevin Durant on floor this season, which leads league; they’re +436 with Russell Westbrook (3rd).
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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02-27-13 11:38 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12017
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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Wednesday, February 27
-- Georgetown won its last nine games, including wins at Cincy-Notre Dame-Syracuse; they allowed 55.5 ppg in last four games- its last seven wins are all by 6+ points, but they lost last three meetings with UConn, by 8-17-14 points. Huskies won seven of last nine games, winning four of last five at home (lost to Villanova)- they're 3-4 vs teams in top 40. Big East home underdogs of 5 or less points are 6-10 vs spread.
-- Last game of year for Georgia State (ineligible for CAA tourney) team that came back from down 11 in first half to upset Northeastern 78-73 in Boston Jan 30, Panthers' third win in last four series games. CAA home favorites of 5 or less points are 10-19 vs spread. Huskies lost two of last three games; their last eight games were all decided by 7 or less points. State won four of last five home games, with only loss in overtime.
-- Home side won eight of last nine Western Michigan-Toledo games, as Broncos lost seven of last nine trips here, losing last two by 13-9 points. Western won first meeting 79-56 at home, shooting 56% inside arc, game that started current 9-2 run, though Broncos lost last two on road. MAC home teams are 6-15 when spread is 4 or less points. Toledo won seven of last eight games; they won four of five MAC home games.
-- Akron fell behind 23-10 early, pulled away to beat Ohio 86-72 Feb 2, just its second win in last seven series games. Zips lost last two visits to Athens, by 25-24 points, but they've won 18 in row overall, are 4-3 vs top 100 teams. Five of Akron's last seven wins are by 12+ points. Ohio won 12 of last 14 games, losing by 14-19; they force turnovers 26.3% of time. MAC home favorites of 4 or less points are 3-6 vs spread.
-- Saint Louis won last six games over St Joe's, winning last two by 16-12 points; Billikens won last nine games and 18 of last 20, winning last four at home, all by 14+ points- they're off win at Butler, an emotional game. Hawks are 2-3 last five games, losing last three road games by 6-18-12 points- they're playing slowest tempo of any team in A-16, but also force least turnovers. A-16 double digit home favorites are 8-12.
-- Evansville forced 22 turnovers (+13), outscored Wichita 20-11 on foul line in 71-67 win over Shockers Jan 13, Aces' first win in last six series games- they lost last nine visits here, with six of nine by 10+. Wichita is 7-1 in MVC home games, with five wins by 12+ points; they better not look ahead to Saturday game with Creighton. MVC double digit home favorites are 9-14. Aces' last four road losses are by 9 or less points.
-- Home side won last six Arkansas-LSU games; Hogs lost their last four trips here, by 10-11-3-6 points. Razorbacks are 5-2 in last seven games, but are 1-6 on SEC road, with only win at Auburn. SEC home favorites of 6 or less points are 10-12 vs spread. LSU is 6-2 in last eight, winning last game in triple OT; they won last five home games, with four of last five wins by 4 or less points. Jones is getting most out of his team.
-- Nevada beat Boise State 75-59 at home Jan 26, in game Boise shooting ace Eliorraga (44.7% behind arc) missed; Wolf Pack won six of last seven series games, winning last three visits here by 9-6-2. Broncos won four in row at home, four of last six overall. Nevada lost six of last seven, four in row on road, all by 12+ points. MWC home favorites of 8+ points are 8-6 vs spread. Home side won nine of last ten Boise State games.
-- Arizona held USC to 28% from floor, beat Trojans 74-50 at home Jan 26, its fourth series win in row, third by 11+ points; Wildcats won last three road games, by 4-18-17 points- they're 17-0 vs teams outside top 60 in country. USC lost last two games, by 8-16 points; they're 4-3 at home in Pac-12, losing by 8-2-16. Arizona lost three of last four visits to Galen Canter. Pac-12 home underdogs are 12-6 vs spread.
-- San Diego State beat New Mexico 55-34 at home Jan 26, its fifth win in last five series games, holding Lobos to 25% from floor; Lobos' star Williams had 46 by himself in win at Colorado State Saturday. Lobos are are 6-0 at home in MWC, with four wins by 10+ points; they've won six of last seven games, with only loss at UNLV. MWC home favorites of 6 or less points are 11-6. Aztecs lost last three on road, by 3-6-2 points.
-- Colorado won seven of last nine games; they held Stanford to 31.3% from floor in 75-54 win Jan 24. Buffs allowed 59.8 ppg last four games; four of their six Pac-12 losses were by 3 or less points, or in OT. Pac-12 home favorites of 5 or less points are 9-19 vs spread. Stanford lost four of last six games, allowing 79 ppg in last three; they lost last two games at home, by 1-8 points- they beat Buffs by 20-24 points LY.
-- Arizona State shot 57% inside arc, beat UCLA 78-60 Jan 26; Bruins were 5-24 from arc in their second loss in last seven series games. ASU lost last three visits here, by 2-18-17 points; they're 3-4 in last seven games, 3-3 on Pac-12 road, losing by 3-4-5 points. Bruins won four of last five games, are 5-2 at home in Pac-12, with four wins by 8+ points. Pac-12 home favorites of 8+ points are 6-14 against the spread.
-- Davidson is 17-2 in last 19 games vs Elon, winning last three by 8-21-16 points, but lost last visit here by 7. Wildcats won last 12 games, with four of last five road wins by 11+ points- they survived OT game with banged-up Montana Saturday- their last eight conference wins are by11+ points. Elon won 11 of last 13 games; three of their last four wins are by 4 or less points. SoCon home underdogs are 18-9 vs spread.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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02-27-13 11:40 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12017
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NCAAB
Wednesday, February 27
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Study group: Wednesday’s Top 25 NCB betting notes
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Michigan Wolverines at Penn State (+14, 133)
Michigan will try to claim its third consecutive win and stay in the conversation for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament when the fourth-ranked Wolverines travel to face Penn State on Wednesday night. The Wolverines remain in the top five despite dropping three of four earlier this month, and they've won two straight, including a 71-58 home win over Illinois on Friday. The Nittany Lions remain winless in Big Ten play and have dropped 14 straight dating to an 84-74 home win over Duquesne on Dec. 29.
The Nittany Lions are running out of chances to get that elusive first win in conference play with just four games remaining, including trips to Minnesota and Northwestern before finishing at home against a ranked Wisconsin team. Michigan has won the past five meetings, including a 79-71 home victory Feb. 17. The Wolverines have won two of their past three trips to Penn State. With a win, the Wolverines would match their highest win total under coach John Beilein, tying last year's 24-10 mark.
Virginia Tech Hokies at Miami Hurricanes (-18, 131)
Miami survived three straight close calls before its chance at an unbeaten ACC season ended on Saturday at Wake Forest. The seventh-ranked Hurricanes look to get back on track when Virginia Tech visits on Wednesday. Miami has averaged 54.7 points and 38 percent shooting the last three games, but can still depend on its strong work on the other end of the court. Miami, which is 12-0 at home, would hold at least a two-game lead in the ACC with a victory before playing at second-place Duke on Saturday.
Virginia Tech snapped a nine-game losing streak by beating Florida State on Sunday, shooting 50 percent for the second time in conference play this season. Senior guard Erick Green leads the nation in scoring and poured in 30 points in the Hokies’ 73-64 loss to Miami on Jan. 30.
Georgetown Hoyas at Connecticut Huskies (+2, 124)
Georgetown’s formula of relying on Otto Porter Jr. on offense and its suffocating defense has served it well during its nine-game winning streak. Both will need to be operating at peak efficiency Wednesday when the eighth-ranked Hoyas attempt to end their struggles at Connecticut. Porter tallied a career-high 33 points in Saturday’s win at Syracuse, ending the Orange’s 38-game home winning streak.
Porter, averaging 19.7 points over the last nine contests, has provided the offense necessary to push Georgetown into sole possession of first place in the Big East standings while the defense has allowed only two opponents to eclipse 56 points during the winning streak. Both marks figure to get tested against the surging Huskies, who have defeated the Hoyas six of the last seven times they have met at home. Connecticut has won seven of nine and is among the conference leaders in field goal percentage and scoring offense during Big East play.
Oklahoma State Cowboys at TCU Horned Frogs (+16, 119)
Oklahoma State took the first step to staying in the race for the Big 12 lead with Saturday’s victory at West Virginia. Now the 18th-ranked Cowboys look to continue rebounding from last week’s double-overtime loss to Kansas when they travel to TCU on Wednesday. While the Horned Frogs do have a victory over the Jayhawks this season, that upset is their only conference triumph.
Oklahoma State sits one game behind Kansas and Kansas State in the conference standings, and will host the Wildcats in the regular-season finale March 9. TCU has lost five in a row.
Akron Zips at Ohio Bobcats (-2.5, 134)
Akron looks to extend the nation's longest winning streak to 19 games when it takes on host Ohio in a first-place showdown in the MAC East Division. The Zips come in with a perfect 12-0 league record, but the Bobcats are just a game behind in the standings at 11-1. The two teams played three weeks ago, with Akron coming out on top by 14.
Home is the place to be for Ohio, which is 15-1 in Athens this year and 5-6 on the road. The Bobcats come off a BracketBusters loss to Belmont on Saturday, so they'll certainly be focused on getting back on the winning track. The Zips' defense has been a key to their success, holding 12 opponents to fewer than 60 points, including four of their last five.
St. Joseph's Hawks at Saint Louis Billikens (-11, 124)
With its second straight win over a ranked team Saint Louis jumped into the Top 25 at No. 19 as it hosts St. Joseph's in an Atlantic 10 conference game on Wednesday night. Saint Louis has won nine in a row, the longest active streak in the Atlantic 10 Conference and tied for the eighth longest winning streak in the nation.
The Billikens have beaten St. Joseph's six straight times and Hawks' coach Phil Martelli warned his team to be ready for a monumental task. "Now we go into the deep, deep end of the water," Martelli said. "This team we're playing Wednesday night is playing as well as any A-10 team has ever played. Saint Louis is an absolutely certifiable monster, and I just told the players that I hope they're excited about that."
Louisville Cardinals at DePaul Blue Demons (+15, 146)
Louisville has won three straight games since the five-overtime defeat at Notre Dame and a trip to the Carrier Dome to face Syracuse looms on Saturday. The ninth-ranked Cardinals must stay alert to keep its Big East regular-season title hopes alive when they visit struggling DePaul on Wednesday. Louisville, one game behind league-leading Georgetown, has beaten the Blue Demons nine straight times. The Cardinals aren’t the best shooting team in the league, but they are third in the nation in steals and score 31 percent of their points off turnovers.
DePaul is suffering through another difficult season, losing 11 of its last 12 games. The Blue Demons are third behind league-leader Louisville in scoring offense, but is last in scoring defense. Cleveland Melvin and Brandon Young, two of the top eight scorers in the league, are always dangerous though.
Arizona Wildcats at USC Trojans (+6, 133)
Arizona will try to remain atop the Pac-12 standings when the No. 11 Wildcats travel to USC on Wednesday night. Arizona enters the week all square with Oregon, who beat the Wildcats in their only meeting this season. Arizona has won three in a row after back-to-back losses to California and Colorado, but continues to struggle with consistency during the second half.
Solomon Hill, a 6-7 senior forward for the Wildcats, returns to his hometown of Los Angeles. The team’s second leading scorer (13.6) hasn’t played well in his previous three stops at USC, averaging 5.7 points. Solomon had a string of 15 straight games in double figures snapped Saturday against Washington State. He took five shots and scored five points. The Trojans have lost their last two games following a season-long four-game winning streak. J.T. Terrell is averaging 14.2 points in the 10 games since coach Kevin O’Neill was fired, increasing his season average to 11.2.
San Diego State Aztecs at New Mexico Lobos (-3, 129)
No. 14 New Mexico could take another big step toward winning at least a share of its fourth Mountain West regular season championship in five years with a win over preseason conference favorite San Diego State. The Aztecs, who enter tied for third place with UNLV, trail the Lobos by three games with four games to go. The Lobos hold a two-game lead in the Mountain West over Colorado State after snapping the Rams' 27-game home win streak on Saturday, 91-82, behind 46 points by junior guard Kendall Williams.
One team that has been able to hold its own with Steve Alford's Lobos is San Diego State. The Aztecs have won five of the last seven meetings between the two teams and embarrassed New Mexico in the first meeting, 55-34, in San Diego on Jan. 26. The 34 points were the fewest scored in a game since 1976 by the Lobos who shot just 25 percent from the floor. The Aztecs are 5-2 in their last seven trips to The Pit and are the last Mountain West team to win in Albuquerque (Jan. 12, 2012).
St. Mary's Gaels at Pepperdine Waves (+12, 129)
No. 23 Saint Mary's heads to Malibu after one of its finest stretches of the season last week with home wins over BYU (64-57) and Creighton (74-66). The Gaels have already clinched second place in the West Coast Conference and the No. 2 seed for the WCC Tournament behind No. 2 ranked Gonzaga (27-2, 14-0). Saint Mary's has won 12 straight against Pepperdine, including a 84-72 victory on Jan. 26, and has won eight straight at Firestone Fieldhouse.
Pepperdine, picked to finish last in the preseason WCC coaches poll, enters the contest in seventh place and could finish anywhere between sixth and eighth depending on how things play out in the final week of conference play. The Waves have lost two in a row since edging last place Loyola Marymount, 52-50, on Feb. 14. They are 6-6 at home, including a 58-56 overtime victory of Washington State on Nov. 16, heading into their home finale.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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02-27-13 11:41 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12017
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NCAAB
Wednesday, February 27
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Searching for Cinderella: What to look for in NCAA upsets
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In less than a month, college basketball bettors will be enthralled by a handful of Cinderella teams making improbable runs in the NCAA tournament. By that time though, it will be too late to cash in on those surprise squads.
Bettors will look back to February for signs of those teams turning the corner as contenders and wonder, “Why didn’t I see that coming?”
If you would rather be the guy saying “I told you so” and making money on those underdog runs, now is the time to start sizing up possible Cinderella teams. They can come from small mid-major leagues, like VCU in 2011 or Butler in 2010-11, or could be under our nose the entire year in a major conference, like UConn in 2011.
We asked some of sports betting's sharpest minds what they look for when trying the glass slipper on a potential Cinderella team as the schedule moves toward March:
Non-conference success
Probable Cinderella teams can show their true colors as early as November by putting together a strong effort against non-conference foes. Many programs load up on major-conference competition in order to jack their RPI and strength of schedule, giving bettors an idea of how they’ll react against tougher and unknown opponents.
“Teams playing in poor conferences that played a meaningless non-conference schedule likely will not come close to getting out of the first round,” says Covers Expert Matt Fargo, who instead points to teams like Long Beach State, South Dakota State, and Robert Morris as potential Cinderella’s thanks to their stout non-conference calendar.
Experience and chemistry
Whether it be a roster packed with upperclassmen or past tournament success, experience is worth its weight in gold come March – especially when taking on some of the younger major-conference squads.
Pro handicapper Teddy Covers is keeping a close eye on Middle Tennessee State out of the Sun Belt Conference. The Blue Raiders returned eight key players from a team that went deep into the NIT last season, missing out on the NCAA due to an upset loss in the conference tournament.
“You want to make some money in the tournament – and even in the Sun Belt tournament – bet on that team,” Teddy says of MTSU. “They are really, really good and completely off the radar. They’re smart, know how to win on the road, and rebound very well.”
Robert Ferringo of Doc’s Sports looks for mismatches in cohesion come March. While some of the top teams may be loaded in pro-groomed freshman talent, they haven’t played together long. Some smaller programs have had the same core for three or four years, owning the edge in chemistry and experience.
“Put them up against an overrated or over-seeded team or just a team that isn't motivated or isn't taking the mid-major seriously, and you get that first upset,” say Ferringo. “Once that happens, the momentum gets going and anything can happen.”
Defense
When talking to experts about what stands out most for potential Cinderellas, defense is the one attribute that comes up over and over again. All of them would take a lockdown defense over a potent offense any day of the week during March Madness.
“I like teams that are battle tested and can play a stingy brand of defense,” says Covers Expert Sean Murphy. “For an underdog to go deep it has to be able to frustrate its superior opponents. Explosive, high-scoring teams are great, but what happens when they go cold? Scrappy teams that can win games played in the 50s and 60s are the ones I look to back in an underdog role throughout the tournament.”
One of the names being brought up is Stephen F. Austin out of the Southland Conference. The Lumberjacks rank tops in the country in points allowed (50.9), limiting opponents to just 37.3 percent shooting, including 27.4 percent from beyond the arc. They aren’t just building those stats versus weak opponents either. Stephen F. Austin has wins over Tulsa, San Diego, Oklahoma and Long Beach State.
Momentum
As Connecticut proved a couple years ago, the most dangerous team in the tournament is the hottest team. The Huskies shocked the Big East for the 2011 conference crown and parlayed that into an improbable NCAA run, which ended in a national championship.
Plenty of teams are rolling toward the postseason, namely Saint Louis and Georgetown, which have each won nine straight games heading into this week.
“Saint Louis is hot, including back-to-back upsets of ranked teams,” says Covers Expert Jesse Schule. “Nobody wants to play these guys right now.”
The pointspread is great way to gauge just how well a team is playing heading into and during its conference tournament. The oddsmakers’ numbers give you an idea of the expectations on a team, and whether or not they are playing above or below that bar.
“You want a team that covered the spread in all two or three of their conference tournament games,” says Ferringo. “Even if they were the overwhelming favorite to win their tournament, you still want to see them go out and lay the wood to opponents.”
Silent superstars
The NCAA tournament has made household names out of unknown ballers. There are more and more pros coming out of smaller conferences each year.
Past Cinderellas like Butler with Gordon Hayward, Davidson with Stephen Curry and Western Kentucky with Courtney Lee, have put their teams on their back come tourney time and given the favorites fits.
Nate Wolters, a 6-foot-4 guard out of South Dakota State, could be the next unknown talent to shine on the national stage.
He’s averaging 22.9 points per game – third in the country – and has the Jackrabbits in line as the next Cinderella out of the Summit League. Wolters, who scored 19 points in a near upset of Baylor in the Round of 64 last season, dropped 53 points in a win over IUPU earlier this month.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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02-27-13 11:42 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12017
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NCAAB
Wednesday, February 27
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Capping college basketball's major conference races
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March wouldn't be so mad if February wasn't so frenzied, with plenty of major conference titles still up for grabs.
There are four or fewer games left on the regular season slate for most programs, which means contending teams will be going all out in the final days of the schedule.
Some will rise to the occasion, giving college basketball bettors some added value to their spreads. Others, however, may crumble under the pressure. We look at how to cap some of the tightest major conference races in college hoops:
ACC
Contending: Miami (13-1), Duke (2 games back)
What to watch for: The Hurricanes have lost their ATS magic, failing to cover in four straight including an upset loss to Wake Forest. Miami does have three of its final four coming in Coral Gables, where it is 9-1 ATS on the year.
Duke is the lone road game on the Canes’ slate. The Blue Devils have three tough games remaining out of their final four – at Virginia, Miami, at UNC – and may get Ryan Kelly back for their final two, at home to Virginia Tech and at Chapel Hill.
Big East
Contending: Georgetown (11-3), Marquette (.5 game back), Louisville (1 game back), Syracuse (1.5 games back). Notre Dame (1.5 games back)
What to watch for: Georgetown controls its own destiny but may have peaked with a win over Syracuse this weekend. The Hoyas have a dangerous game at UConn Wednesday and a rematch with Cuse in the season finale. The Orange are a sinking ship after losing to Marquette, which hosts Notre Dame this weekend.
Both the Irish and Louisville need to win out the stretch and get some help from the Hoyas and the other schools ahead of them. While a conference title may not be up for grabs in their matchup on March 9, seeding in the Big East tournament will be.
Big 12
Contending: Kansas (12-3), Kansas State (12-3), Oklahoma State 1.5 games back)
What to watch for: The final two weeks of Big 12 play will not only decide the conference champion but perhaps tag the winner with a No. 1 seed in the NCAA.
Kansas has won SU and ATS in its last five – thanks to the refs versus ISU – and should continue to cover in its final three games with Bill Self revving the engines before the conference tournament. The Wildcats could have their party spoiled by OSU in the season finale. The Cowboys are 8-4 ATS in Stillwater.
Big Ten
Contending: Indiana (12-2). Michigan State (1.5 games back), Wisconsin (2 games back), Michigan (2 games back)
What to watch for: The Hoosiers are hitting their stride at the right time, winning four in a row SU and ATS heading into their final four outings. Tom Crean won’t take his foot off the gas as IU rolls into a season finale at Michigan. The Spartans seem destined to fall, losing two in a row with games against Michigan and Wisconsin on tap.
The Badgers have been hot but the two most important games of the final stretch are away from Madison, where they are just 3-5-1 ATS on the year. The Wolverines could be the comeback kids in the Big Ten. Their two toughest games – MSU and Indiana – are at home but beware the letdown at Penn State and Purdue.
Pac-12
Contending: Oregon (11-4), Arizona (11-4), UCLA (.5 game back), California (1 game back)
What to watch for: Oregon has the edge over Arizona with a win against the Wildcats acting as an insurance policy. But nothing is certain for the Ducks, who play their final two games at Colorado and Utah. Arizona could present some betting value with its back against the wall. The Wildcats need to win out at USC, at UCLA and hosting Arizona State but have the talent and pedigree to pull it off.
The Bruins will put all their chips on the March 2 game versus Arizona, which could open them up to a look-ahead spot versus ASU this week and letdown spots in the final two games. Cal is the hottest team in the Pac-12, winning five in a row while going 3-1-1 ATS. The Golden Bears’ remaining games – Utah, Colorado, Stanford – all come at home with the conference race acting as fuel for Mike Montgomery’s squad.
SEC
Contending: Florida (12-2), Alabama (2 games back), Kentucky (2 games back)
What to watch for: The Gators have the SEC regular season crown in their back pocket, barring an epic collapse, but the motivation of a No. 1 NCAA seed should still push UF in the final two weeks. Florida does have two important games versus Alabama and Kentucky.
The Crimson Tide must win in Gainesville to even sniff the SEC crown, so expect an all-out effort on March 2. Following that, Bama is at Ole Miss, which stinks of letdown spot. The Wildcats have struggled on the road, boasting a 3-6 ATS mark, and have trips to Arkansas and Georgia, before a finale with Florida in Lexington.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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02-27-13 11:43 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12017
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NCAAB
Top 25 Short Sheet
Wednesday, February 27
Michigan at Penn State, 6:30 ET BTN
Michigan: 11-3 ATS after 3 straight games with 31 or less rebounds
Penn State: 9-2 OVER on Wednesday games
Georgetown at Connecticut, 7:00 ET ESPN2
Georgetown: 11-1 ATS after 2 consecutive conference
Connecticut: 1-9 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins
Virginia Tech at Miami FL, 7:00 ET
Virginia Tech: 3-11 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4
Miami FL: 9-1 ATS in home lined games
Oklahoma State at TCU, 7:00 ET ESPNU
Oklahoma State: 11-3 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5
TCU: 1-10 ATS after 3 consecutive conference games
South Florida at Pittsburgh, 7:00 ET
South Florida: 5-1 ATS as a road underdog of 12.5 to 18 points
Pittsburgh: 4-10 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points
St. Joseph's at St. Louis, 8:00 ET CBSS
St. Joseph's: 8-1 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points
St. Louis: 6-22 ATS after a game where they made 20% of their 3 point shots or worse
Louisville at DePaul, 9:00 ET ESPNU
Louisville: 11-3 ATS off 2 straight wins against conference rivals
DePaul: 7-18 ATS after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7
Arizona at USC, 9:30 ET
Arizona: 25-12 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive unders
USC: 9-20 ATS after a conference game
San Diego State at New Mexico, 10:15 ET CBSS
San Diego State: 9-2 OVER when playing only their 2nd game in a week
New Mexico: 21-7 ATS against conference opponents
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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02-27-13 11:44 PM |
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