StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping

The FoxDen Forum : Powered by vBulletin version 2.3.0 The FoxDen Forum > Sports Handicapping, Trends, and Stats > NFL Wild Card Round... All In
Search The Fox Den Forum:

Subscribe to this Thread


Last Message   Next Message
    
Author
Message    Post A Reply
cisco
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jul 2004
Posts: 8616

NFL Wild Card Round... All In

Home cooking. It used to be a solid handicapping edge during the playoffs.

Not so anymore.

For the longest time backing home teams in the NFL postseason has been a solid-moneymaker, going 167-135-6 (55.1%) dating back to 1980.

Today, however, that would be a mistake as the success of home teams in the playoffs has dissolved quicker than an Alka Seltzer in a cold glass of water.

A closer look finds home teams just 113-102-5 ATS (52.7%) since the 1990 season and, even worse, 64-66-1 ATS (49.2%) since 2000. Thus, like the economy, NFL playoff hosts have fallen on hard times.

The key today to winning in the playoffs is breaking the games down into rounds. And in doing so it’s wise to remember the linemakers have made the visiting teams more attractive than ever before.

Let’s take a look into opening round time-tested theories involving unrested, No. 3 or lower seeded teams, in playoff games.

Note: All results are ATS (Against The Spread) and are since 1980, unless noted otherwise.

Stun Guns

Teams in NFL Wild Card round contests playing off a straight up season ending loss as a favorite tend to bounce back up off the carpet, going 21-11-1 ATS - including 10-3 ATS at home.

This year finds the Texans and Packers return home looking to right themselves from road favorite losses last weekend.

Division Downers

Wild card road teams have a difficult time after dueling a division opponent in their season ending finale, going 20-40-1 ATS – including 0-4 ATS last year.

Send these highwaymen out as ‘dogs of more than 3 points and the task worsens as they are 4-30 SU and 9-25 ATS.

Not a good sign for the Bengals, Colts and Vikings this week.

ATS Diabetes

Like kids in a candy store, NFL Wild Card teams playing off huge regular season wins tend to crash-and-burn in these playoff openers.

Teams off a SU underdog win are just 11-23 SU and 13-20-1 ATS, including 3-13 SU and 4-12 ATS if the Over/Under total in today’s game is set at more than 41 points.

So long Vikings.

In a similar vein, teams suffer from more than a sugar rush In opening round playoff games if they managed to they beat the spread by 12 or points, going just 5-15-1 ATS when on the road during this round.

The Colts look to throw a show this Sunday.

There you have it. A look at some of the more intriguing Wild Card trends and angles surrounding this year’s card.

Old Post 01-04-13 03:33 AM
cisco is offline Click Here to See the Profile for cisco Click here to Send cisco a Private Message Edit post   Report post
geg1951
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 7128

like that info , thanks cisco !!!!!




GARY / GARLAND TEXAS......

Old Post 01-04-13 01:42 PM
geg1951 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for geg1951 Click here to Send geg1951 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
mikeb104
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2006
Posts: 7083

Thanks Cisco




"Not everything you read on the internet is accurate"- Abraham Lincoln

Old Post 01-04-13 02:00 PM
mikeb104 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for mikeb104 Click here to Send mikeb104 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
danny07
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Nov 2003
Posts: 1303

Nice read . Great job.




The Greatest enemy of excellence is good !

NFL 12 SEASON
ATS 10-3
TEASER 3-5
TOTALS 4-1
ML DOGS 6-1
+2885.00
NBA 2012
ATS 6-3
+ 290.00

NFL 11 SEASON
ATS 9-4-1
TOTALS 5-1
TEASERS 8-3
ML DOGS 6-3
ML PARLAYS 4-1
+3855

+NFL 10 SEASON
ATS 25- 7
TOTAL 11-8
TEASERS 8-5
ML DOGS7-2
ML Parlay 2-1
+4975

NBA 09/10
ATS 4-1
+290.0

Old Post 01-04-13 11:02 PM
danny07 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for danny07 Click here to Send danny07 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Post A Reply
  
  Last Message   Next Message

Quick Links: