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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12024
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NBA
Sunday, January 27
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NBA on ABC: Heat at Celtics, Thunder at Lakers
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Miami Heat at Boston Celtics (+3.5, 188)
The Boston Celtics are heading toward oblivion and their next opponent could speed up their journey. The skidding Celtics will attempt to avoid a seventh consecutive loss when they host the Miami Heat and ex-teammate Ray Allen in a Sunday matinee. Boston saw its losing streak reach six games in stunning fashion, blowing a 27-point lead in Atlanta and falling in double overtime to the Hawks on Friday night. The skid, coming on the heels of a six-game winning streak, dropped the Celtics three games below .500.
Miami, which owns the best record in the Eastern Conference, has ripped off four straight victories after steamrolling the Detroit Pistons 110-88 on Friday night. The Heat have been rather ordinary away from home with a 10-9 record, but they won their last two road games in impression fashion by knocking off Golden State and the Los Angeles Lakers on back-to-back nights. Boston is the first stop of a four-game road trip for Miami, which will have played 10 of 12 games away from home when it's over.
TV: 1 p.m., ABC
CONSENSUS: 66 percent of Covers Consensus plays are on Miami while 43 percent are on the under.
ABOUT THE HEAT (28-12, 20-20-0 ATS): Allen played a pivotal role in Boston's run to a championship in 2008, but the sight of him in a Miami uniform has to be galling for Celtics fans - particularly after he turned down a more lucrative offer from Boston to sign with the Heat in the offseason. Content to be a role player with Miami, Allen is averaging 11.4 points and shooting 44.6 percent from behind the arc. He told the Sun-Sentinel of South Florida he doesn't know what kind of greeting to expect. "I have great memories. ... I'll always cherish those moments," he said. "Regardless of how they respond to me, it won't change how I feel."
ABOUT THE CELTICS (20-23, 14-26-3 ATS): Guard Avery Bradley may feel a little extra pressure due to Allen's return. He replaced Allen in Boston's starting lineup last season, leading to speculation that was among the reasons Allen's opted to take his shooting talents to South Beach. Known as one of the league's better on-ball defenders, Bradley has his second-highest output with 14 points on 6-of-11 shooting against Atlanta. It was only the third time in 12 games that Bradley scored in double figures. He missed the first two months while recuperating from two shoulder surgeries.
TRENDS:
* Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Under is 19-8-1 in the last 28 meetings in Boston.
* Home team is 16-7 ATS in the last 23 meetings.
* Heat are 2-10 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Boston.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. Miami beat the Celtics in seven games in the Eastern Conference finals last season, winning Game 6 in Boston behind 45 points from LeBron James.
2. Celtics PG Rajon Rondo is coming off back-to-back triple-doubles for Boston, which last lost six straight from April 4-15, 2007.
3. Allen, the NBA's career 3-point leader, scored 19 points in a 120-107 season-opening win over Boston.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers (+3, 207)
The Los Angeles Lakers finally squeezed out a win on Friday to snap a four-game slide. If they want to make it back-to-back triumphs, the host Lakers will have to figure out a way around the NBA-best Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday. Los Angeles found a formula against the Utah Jazz on Friday with Kobe Bryant acting mainly as a distributor on offense while the team played strong defense.
The Thunder are making the final stop in a six-game road trip and have taken three of the first five after easily dispatching the Sacramento Kings on Friday. Oklahoma City is the top scoring team in the NBA and will test Los Angeles’ new-found defense with two of the best scorers in the league in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. The Lakers have won their last five games when allowing less than 95 points.
TV: 3:30 p.m. ABC
CONSENSUS: 85 percent of Cover Consensus plays are on Oklahoma City while 69 percent are on the under.
ABOUT THE THUNDER (34-10, 26-16-2 ATS): Oklahoma City has shown signs of fatigue on the current trip but had a day off on Saturday to rest up for the Lakers. The Thunder squandered a late lead in a loss at Golden State on Wednesday and got off to a sluggish start at Sacramento on Friday before busting out and pushing the lead to as much as 25 points in the third quarter en route to a 105-95 triumph. Sunday marks the end of a stretch of 11 of 13 games on the road for Oklahoma City, which included a 116-101 victory over the Lakers at Staples Center on Jan. 11. Durant went for 42 points and Westbrook added 27 and 10 assists as the Thunder shot 50.6 percent in the easy victory.
ABOUT THE LAKERS (18-25, 17-25-1 ATS): For all the talk of Los Angeles’ issues on offense, the team ranks among the top scoring teams in the NBA at an average of 102.3 points. The overlooked problem has been on the defensive end, where the Lakers rank in the bottom five in points allowed. They made a much stronger effort on that end against Utah on Friday, holding the Jazz to 37 points in the first half. Bryant handed out a season-high 14 assists while matching a season-low with only 10 field goal attempts in the 102-84 victory. Los Angeles held a team meeting before a loss to Memphis on Wednesday to air some grievances and looked like a more cohesive unit on Friday. The Lakers are still seven games below .500 but will face four straight teams with losing records after the Thunder exit Staples Center.
TRENDS:
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Thunder are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Los Angeles.
* Thunder are 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Road team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. Oklahoma City has taken each of the first two meetings this season and have won four straight and eight of the last 10 in the series.
2. Los Angeles coach Mike D’Antoni was reportedly given a vote of confidence by team management.
3. Lakers C Dwight Howard (shoulder) collected 17 points and 13 rebounds on Friday after leaving the previous game with the injury.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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01-27-13 05:02 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12024
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NBA
Sunday, January 27
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Bank shots: NBA betting news and notes
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Each week, we look back on the NBA betting scene and give you the best –and worst – basketball bets, as well as some spots to keep an eye on with the upcoming schedule.
For the week of Jan. 20-26.
Hottest ATS team
Washington Wizards (3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS)
The Wizards are on a red-hot 10-game cover streak. Washington has thrived since PG John Wall returned from injury and continues to defy oddsmakers as an underdog. The Wizards host the Kings Monday before heading out on a three-game road swing.
Coldest ATS team
Los Angeles Clippers (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS)
The Clippers have been money for bettors all season long but they’re currently mired in a mid-season slump. Los Angeles has failed to cover in five straight games – four times as favorites. The Clippers host Portland Sunday and then head out on a season-long eight-game road trip beginning Wednesday in Minnesota.
Best over team
Milwaukee Bucks (2-1 SU, 3-0 over/under)
The Bucks have soared over the total in four consecutive games. Milwaukee’s offense has come alive during that stretch, averaging 109.2 points per game. The Bucks hit the court again Tuesday in Detroit before two tough contests against the Bulls and Knicks.
Best under team
New York Knicks (1-2 SU, 0-3 over/under)
The Knicks have gone low in five straight and six of their last seven games. New York is averaging just 84.6 points over the last three games – 11.5 points lower than its 96.1 season average. The Knicks kick off a five-game homestand beginning Sunday when Atlanta rolls into town.
Scouting the schedule:
-The Philadelphia 76ers kicked off their season-long eight-game homestand with a win over the Knicks Saturday night. The Sixers are 16-6 O/U at the Wells Fargo Center.
-The New Orleans Hornets play eight of their nine games away from home, but that isn’t necessarily a bad thing for their backers. The Hornets boast an impressive 14-7 ATS mark on the road.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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01-27-13 05:04 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12024
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NBA
Short Sheet
Sunday, January 27
Miami at Boston, 1:00 ET ABC
Miami: 8-1 Under off a win by 15+ points
Boston: 1-8 ATS off a road loss by 10+ points
Oklahoma City at LA Lakers, 3:30 ET ABC
Oklahoma City: 17-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
LA Lakers: 8-20 ATS after playing as a favorite
Detroit at Orlando, 6:05 ET
Detroit: 15-5 ATS after allowing 110+ points
Orlando: 1-8 ATS as a favorite
New Orleans at Memphis, 6:05 ET
New Orleans: 14-6 ATS off a home game
Memphis: 12-3 Under after allowing 85 points or less
Atlanta at NY Knicks, 6:35 ET ESPN
Atlanta: 0-8 ATS off BB ATS wins as favorites
NY Knicks: 17-7 ATS at home off a road game
Phoenix at Dallas, 7:35 ET
Phoenix: 11-1 Under playing with same-season revenge
Dallas: 15-4 ATS at home off a division game
Portland at LA Clippers, 9:35 ET
Portland: 2-15 ATS off BB ATS wins
LA Clippers: 12-3 ATS on Sundays
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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01-27-13 05:06 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12024
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Inside the Paint - Sunday
January 27, 2013
Three seasons ago, the Los Angeles Lakers defeated the Boston Celtics 4-3 in the 2009-10 NBA Finals. The championship was the second straight for the “Purple and Gold” and it was also their third consecutive trip to the finals for the club. In the 2007 season, Boston humbled Los Angles in six games of the finals.
Fast forward to the 2012-13 season and both teams are barely clinging on to that recent history. If you follow the Association daily, you obviously know these teams have no shot of winning this season or to be brutally honest, not in the near future either. Unless some serious changes are made!
It took them a couple months but the oddsmakers have finally noticed how listless these teams have performed. Despite losing in Game 7 of last year’s Eastern Conference Finals to Miami, Boston (20-23 straight up, 14-26 against the spread) is a 28/1 choice at Sportsbook.ag to win the finals this season.
Los Angeles (18-25 SU, 17-25 ATS) is listed at a 40/1 price and that number is still too low. It should probably be 100/1 but the oddsmakers don’t want to put at risk. However, they’re four games out of the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference and it’s an uphill battle here on out.
On Sunday, the two most recognizable franchises in the NBA can make a statement with home victories against the two teams that squared off in last year’s finals, Miami (28-12 SU, 20-20 ATS) and Oklahoma City (34-10 SU, 26-16 ATS).
Let’s take a closer look at the two nationally televised matchups on ABC, which tip at 1:05 p.m. ET.
Miami at Boston: The Heat opened as a 3 ½-point road favorite and bettors could be hesitant to back the defending champions because their road record is 10-9 SU and 8-11 ATS. However, Miami is facing a Boston team that has dropped six straight games. Three of those setbacks occurred at TD Garden, where the team has gone 13-9 SU and 8-12 ATS this season. As an underdog this season, Boston is just 5-11 against the number.
Miami beat Boston 120-107 at home in the season opener on Oct. 30 and it covered as a 6 ½-point favorite. This was a tight game down the stretch and a lot closer than the 13-point margin. Ray Allen sparked the Heat with 19 off the bench and the former Celtic will be making his first return to Boston on Sunday.
Including last year’s Eastern Conference Finals, the ‘over’ is on a 6-2 run between these teams. Sunday’s ‘over/under’ is hovering around 188 points. The Heat offense has started to click, posting 100-plus points in their last two games albeit against the Raptors and Pistons.
However, Boston has only eclipsed the century mark once during its current six-game slide and that came in Friday’s 123-111 overtime loss at Atlanta. Also, the ‘under’ has cashed in seven of the last eight games played at TD Garden and the lone ‘over’ ticket snuck in during an overtime loss to Chicago (99-100) on Jan. 18.
Oklahoma City at L.A. Lakers: The Thunder opened as a 3 1/2-point road favorite and the number dropped to three, which could seem a little low. Just over two weeks ago, Oklahoma City blasted Los Angeles 116-101 as a six-point favorite from the Staples Center. The Lakers didn’t have All-Star center Dwight Howard in the lineup but is he worth three points? If you’ve seen this guy play, you’re aware that he’s lost a step defensively and his offensive game doesn’t fit, which explains the daily trade rumors out of Los Angeles.
When the Lakers did have Howard suited up against OKC on Dec. 7, he had 23 points and 18 rebounds. Guess what? The Thunder failed to cover the number (7 ½) but they still notched a 114-108 win at home and that’s with L.A. outscoring the Thunder 33-25 in the final 12 minutes. To be fair, Steve Nash and Pau Gasol didn’t play in that loss and they’re both expected in action on Sunday.
Including Kobe Bryant, all four played on Friday and they cruised past Utah 102-82 as a five-point home favorite. The victory snapped a four-game losing skid for the Lakers. The Jazz aren’t a bad team but they don’t have a talented point guard to attack the Lakers, which is their major weakness on defense. Oklahoma City has that type of player and his name is Russell Westbrook. The All-Star out of UCLA scored 33 in the first meeting at home and 27 two weeks ago in Los Angeles.
The Thunder will be playing the final game of their six-game road trip, which has seen the team go 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS in the first five contests. Including these outcomes, OKC has gone 15-7 SU and 12-8 ATS on the road this season.
The total is hovering around 207 points, which is down from the opener of 210. The Lakers have seen the ‘under’ go 13-9 at Staples Center and the Thunder are 13-9 to the ‘under’ on the road.
MVP Odds and Future Props
If you’re looking for a tightly contested wager, then you should turn your attention to this year’s Most Valuable Player award. Oklahoma City’s Kevin Durant is now the 5/6 (Bet $120 to win $100) favorite at Sportsbook.ag while Miami’s LeBron James is a 7/5 (Bet $100 to $140) choice. After those two All-Stars, the Clippers’ Chris Paul and the Knicks’ Carmelo Anthony are next in line at 10/1 odds. In case you’re wondering, Kobe Bryant is listed at 25/1 (Bet $100 to win $2,500) and the Celtics’ Rajon Rondo has the same odds as well.
Another betting option at Sportsbook.ag that has value is the 2013 NBA Finals Possible Matchups prop. If you believe Oklahoma City and Miami will meet again, then take advantage of the 3/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $300). I personally don’t see anybody beating the Heat in the East and if you believe that statement, then perhaps check out these other options, which can create some nice hedge bets come the postseason.
Heat vs. Clippers (9/2)
Heat vs. Spurs (11/2)
Heat vs. Grizzlies (20/1)
Heat vs. Lakers (28/1)
Heat vs. Nuggets (32/1)
Heat vs. Warriors (65/1)
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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01-27-13 05:09 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12024
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NBA
Long Sheet
Monday, January 28
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GOLDEN STATE (26 - 17) at TORONTO (16 - 28) - 1/28/2013, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 34-21 ATS (+10.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 63-89 ATS (-34.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 2-1 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 2-1 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SACRAMENTO (16 - 29) at WASHINGTON (11 - 31) - 1/28/2013, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SACRAMENTO is 17-26 ATS (-11.6 Units) in all games this season.
SACRAMENTO is 35-48 ATS (-17.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 29-49 ATS (-24.9 Units) against Southeast division opponents since 1996.
SACRAMENTO is 17-29 ATS (-14.9 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in January games this season.
WASHINGTON is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in non-conference games this season.
WASHINGTON is 292-356 ATS (-99.6 Units) in home games since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
SACRAMENTO is 3-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
SACRAMENTO is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MEMPHIS (28 - 15) at PHILADELPHIA (18 - 25) - 1/28/2013, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 25-16 ATS (+7.4 Units) in all games this season.
MEMPHIS is 34-14 ATS (+18.6 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 70-47 ATS (+18.3 Units) against Atlantic division opponents since 1996.
MEMPHIS is 55-36 ATS (+15.4 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 25-39 ATS (-17.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 3-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 3-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ORLANDO (14 - 29) at BROOKLYN (26 - 18) - 1/28/2013, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 32-50 ATS (-23.0 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 20-33 ATS (-16.3 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BROOKLYN is 5-5 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 7-3 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CHARLOTTE (11 - 32) at CHICAGO (26 - 17) - 1/28/2013, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 4-4 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 5-3 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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INDIANA (26 - 18) at DENVER (27 - 18) - 1/28/2013, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DENVER is 66-52 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) against Central division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-1 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-1 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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HOUSTON (24 - 22) at UTAH (24 - 20) - 1/28/2013, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) after allowing 105 points or more this season.
UTAH is 33-20 ATS (+11.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 5-3 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 4-4 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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01-28-13 10:48 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12024
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NBA
Monday, January 28
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Pacers at Nuggets: What bettors need to know
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Indiana Pacers at Denver Nuggets (-5.5, 194.5)
The Denver Nuggets are expected to be one of the NBA's most dangerous teams over the next ten days. That doesn't bode well for the Indiana Pacers, who wrap up a four-game road trip against a Nuggets team that has been devastating in its own arena. Denver improved to 17-3 at home with a 121-93 trouncing of the Sacramento Kings on Saturday. It was the first of a six-game homestand for Denver, which boasts the league's best rebounding totals and one of its highest-scoring offenses.
The Pacers have had defensive prowess on their side for most of the season, but it has abandoned them of late. Indiana has surrendered at least 100 points in back-to-back games after holding teams to double digits in its previous 12 contests. A fourth-quarter rally gave way to a listless overtime period last time out as the Pacers dropped a 114-110 decision to the Utah Jazz. It's the second of two meetings between the clubs this season, with Denver prevailing 92-89 in their first encounter Dec. 7.
TV: 9 p.m. ET, Fox Sports Indiana, Altitude (Denver)
ABOUT THE PACERS (26-18): It's easy to see what Indiana coach Frank Vogel thinks his team needs to improve upon moving forward. "We have to tighten the screws on defense,'' he said following the loss to Utah. "We put 90 percent of our emphasis into riding the ship on the offensive end (Saturday). You reach a point where you realize you have to tighten the screws. It's tough to beat good teams in their buildings when you aren't tied together on defense.'' Even with an improved defensive effort, the Pacers will be in tough at the Pepsi Center, having dropped six of their last seven games there.
ABOUT THE NUGGETS (27-18): Denver may not be able to match Indiana's defensive intensity, but it won't need to if it continues to score at will. The Nuggets have averaged nearly 116 points during their three-game winning streak to move into fourth in the league at 103.6 for the season. Two of the teams ahead of them - Oklahoma City and Houston - were outgunned by the Nuggets during the streak, which could continue to grow with Denver hosting the Pacers, Rockets, New Orleans Hornets, Milwaukee Bucks and Chicago Bulls before hitting the road for four in a row beginning Feb. 9.
TRENDS:
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Denver.
* Over is 5-0 in Nuggets’ last five home games.
* Nuggets are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 vs. NBA Central foes.
* Pacers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. The Nuggets have lost six games when leading after the third quarter, the second-most in the Western Conference.
2. Denver's 71 first-half points against Sacramento set a season high.
3. Indiana has allowed 100 or more points eight times, the fewest in the East.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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01-28-13 10:49 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
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Posts: 12024
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NBA
Short Sheet
Monday, January 28
Golden State at Toronto, 7:05 ET
Golden State: 0-10 ATS in road games after a game where they made 12 or more 3 point shots
Toronto: 7-0 ATS in home games after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8
Sacramento at Washington, 7:05 ET
Sacramento: 6-19 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread
Washington: 13-3 ATS in non-conference games
Memphis at Philadelphia, 7:05 ET
Memphis: 34-14 ATS when playing on back-to-back days
Philadelphia: 0-8 ATS after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread
Orlando at Brooklyn, 7:35 ET NBATV
Orlando: 7-0 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12
Brooklyn: 1-9 ATS in home games after a combined score of 205 points or more
Charlotte at Chicago, 8:05 ET
Charlotte: 6-16 ATS after one or more consecutive overs
Chicago: 39-21 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses
Indiana at Denver, 9:05 ET
Indiana: 4-12 ATS as a road underdog
Denver: 14-6 ATS after 1 or more consecutive unders
Houston at Utah, 9:05 ET
Houston: 1-9 ATS after a game where both teams scored 105 points or more
Utah: 33-20 ATS in home games
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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01-28-13 10:51 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12024
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Fact or Fiction
January 29, 2013
The NBA All-Star rosters are set, and that means that the season for trading is about to be here. The news and notes across the NBA betting world are going to be coming out all across the league. Don't miss our always vital NBA Fact or Fiction, where we answer some of the most pressing questions hoops bettors are begging to have answered.
FACT
The Boston Celtics are Finished Without Rajon Rondo: The highlight of the season for the Celtics probably came on Sunday when they beat the Miami Heat 100-98 in two overtimes at the TD Garden. Of course, it was also probably the lowlight of the season as well, as the news broke that point guard Rajon Rondo is out for the rest of the year with a torn ACL. This was a team that was already struggling at 20-23 straigt up and a league worst 15-26-3 against the spread, and matters are only going to get worse before they get better.
The Washington Wizards' ATS Winning Streak: The Wiz had covered 10 in a row before Monday's loss to the Sacramento Kings. This isn't a team that is going to get into the playoffs, but it could be a cover machine for the rest of the campaign. PG John Wall is back, and he is starting to get back in the fold as one of the better point guards in the league. This is a stingy team that has figured out how to establish a winning attitude, and there's no reason that shouldn't continue.
The Indiana Pacers are Set to Explode: Forward Danny Granger is about set to get back in the lineup, and we can only imagine just how good the Pacers are going to be as a result. The only thing that has been missing from one of the league's top defensive teams is a wing scorer. Once Granger gets back in the fold, the Pacers are going to catch fire.
FICTION
The Lakers' Winning Streak: We see this happen every single time that the Lakers win a game or two. Everyone makes the assumption that this is the time that Los Angeles is going to get into a groove and win a ton of games. It ain't happening. As long as Mike D'Antoni is in charge and center Dwight Howard isn't playing like Superman, this team is finished. Don't fall into the trap.
The Boston Celtics are Going to Break Up: General managers are calling Danny Ainge this year to see whether they can pry F Kevin Garnett, F Paul Pierce, or any of the other big men away from this team. It seems like a logical conclusion with Rondo out for the year, but we just aren't all that sure. Ainge has had a number of chances to blow this team up, but he has refused to do it, save for letting G Ray Allen go. Instead, we think that a more subtle move to get someone like G JJ Redick is the direction that Ainge and the C's will go, a move that won't help out on the NBA betting lines.
The Orlando Magic's Losing Skid: The Magic aren't going to win all that many games in the second-half of the season. We're not challenging this fact. However, what we are challenging is the notion that this team is going to be a miserable cover team for the rest of the campaign. This is a team that is full of heart and hustle, and out of these 17 losses in 19 games since Dec. 21, 11 of those defeats have come by six points or fewer. Rather than just look at the losses, look at the quality of those losses. I would be shocked if the Magic didn't cover at least 20 throughout the second half of the campaign.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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01-29-13 10:45 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12024
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Tuesday Tips
January 29, 2013
The Tuesday NBA card has a little of everything with one interconference matchup, one divisional showdown, and two intraconference contests. The Lakers look to stay hot late-night against the surprising Hornets, while the Mavericks travel to the Rose Garden to take on Portland. We'll start in Cleveland with a pair of young stars trying to outdo each other on the scoreboard.
Warriors at Cavaliers - 7:05 PM EST
Golden State wraps up its four-game road trip in Cleveland, while playing with no rest following Tuesday's victory at Toronto. The Warriors dropped the opening two games at Chicago and Milwaukee, as the defense allowed an average of 106 points per game in those two defeats. Mark Jackson's team is just 2-5 SU/ATS the last seven highway contests, a stark contrast from a 7-2 SU/ATS run away from Oracle Arena in December.
The Cavaliers is turning things around with three consecutive victories and four wins in their last five trips to the court. The last two triumphs are putting All-Star guard Kyrie Irving in the spotlight, as he helped orchestrate comeback wins over the Bucks and Raptors by erasing double-digit deficits in the second half. In Saturday's stunner at Toronto, Irving drilled a three-pointer in the final seconds to give the Cavs a 99-98 win to cash outright as seven-point underdogs.
In the first meeting between the Cavs and Warriors, Stephen Curry scored 21 points, while David Lee put 22 in a 106-96 Golden State victory as 4 ½-point 'chalk' in early November. The Warriors jumped out to a 16-point advantage after one quarter, as the Cavs slowed up following an outright win over the Clippers as 10-point 'dogs two days prior. Golden State enters Wednesday's contest cashing the 'over' in nine of 11 games with no rest, including a 6-0 mark to the 'over' on the road in this situation.
Bucks at Pistons - 7:35 PM EST
Detroit has stolen each of the first two matchups with Milwaukee, as the Bucks go for their eighth win in 11 games. Milwaukee has won four of five, as the lone loss came at Cleveland with the Bucks squandering a 20-point lead in the third quarter of a 113-108 defeat. The Pistons enter tonight's contest off a 1-2 SU/ATS road trip, while hitting the highway once again tomorrow to battle the Pacers in Indianapolis.
The Pistons put together a terrific third quarter to overcome an eight-point halftime deficit the last time these teams met up in Milwaukee, a 103-87 triumph as 5 ½-point 'dogs earlier this month. Detroit outscored Milwaukee, 33-11 in the pivotal third quarter, while Greg Monroe dominated the paint by scoring 26 points and pulling down 11 rebounds. The first time these rivals hooked up at the Palace, the Pistons held off the Bucks, 96-94, as the game barely finished 'under' the total of 191 ½ thanks to a 41-point fourth quarter.
Milwaukee has cashed the 'over' in four straight games, as both the Bucks and their opponent has scored at least 100 points in this span. Excluding the London game against the Knicks, the Pistons are rolling at the Palace with wins in seven of the last nine home contests, but Detroit owns a 2-4 ATS record as a favorite.
Mavericks at Blazers - 10:05 PM EST
The Wizards were the hottest ATS team with 10 consecutive covers prior to last night's loss to the Kings. The club with their best ATS stretch resides in Dallas, as Rick Carlisle's squad owns an 8-1 ATS record the last nine games, while posting a 7-2 ATS mark in the previous nine road contests. Dallas heads to Portland tonight to take on a Blazers' team that has beaten the Clippers and Pacers in their previous two home games.
The Blazers did get tripped up by the Clippers on the second of a back-to-back set on Saturday night, but Portland stole the home opener on Friday, 101-100. Terry Stotts' club finished a five-game homestand at 2-3 SU/ATS, but played their two best games against the two best teams, while losing to the Cavs, Wizards, and Bucks.
Dallas dominated Portland in the first meeting at American Airlines Center in November, 114-91 as four-point 'chalk.' The Mavs led the Blazers by four points entering the fourth quarter, but Dallas outscored Portland, 31-12 in the final 12 minutes, while O.J. Mayo put up 32 points in the win. Dallas is rolling through a 5-1 'over' stretch, as the Mavs have allowed at least 105 points in three of the last four games.
Hornets at Lakers - 10:35 PM EST
Don't look now. Really, don't look at the Lakers, but nobody is sure if they are going to turn things around. Los Angeles picked up a pair of solid home victories over Utah and Oklahoma City, as the Lakers go for their just their third winning streak of at least three games this season. The Hornets won't be a push-over, as New Orleans owns an 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS record the last 12 contests.
The Lakers knocked off the Thunder for the first time in three meetings on Sunday, 105-96 as three-point home 'dogs. L.A. has actually covered four of its last five games at Staples Center, while cashing the 'under' in six consecutive home contests. The Lakers drilled the Hornets in the first meeting back in December, as L.A. outscored New Orleans by 17 points in a 103-87 triumph as 4 ½-point favorites.
The Hornets snapped a two-game skid with an impressive victory at Memphis on Sunday, 91-83 as 7 ½-point underdogs. New Orleans improved to 9-2 ATS inside the Southwest Division, but the Hornets are a pedestrian 8-8 ATS against the other two divisions in the Western Conference. Monty Williams' team is cashing at a rapid pace away from the Big Easy, posting a 5-1 ATS record on the road the last six games.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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01-29-13 10:48 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12024
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NBA
Dunkel
Milwaukee at Detroit
The Bucks look to build on their 9-4 ATS record in their last 13 games against teams with a losing SU record. Milwaukee is the pick (+1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bucks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+1 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.
TUESDAY, JANUARY 29
Game 501-502: Golden State at Cleveland (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 118.884; Cleveland 118.828
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 1 1/2; 206
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+1 1/2); Under
Game 503-504: Milwaukee at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 117.424; Detroit 116.621
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 1; 207
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 202
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+1 1/2); Over
Game 505-506: Dallas at Portland (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 119.726; Portland 120.358
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 1; 204
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 2 1/2; 201 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+2 1/2); Over
Game 507-508: New Orleans at LA Lakers (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 115.161; LA Lakers 123.981
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 9; 190
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 7; 194 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-7); Under
NBA
Long Sheet
Tuesday, January 29
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GOLDEN STATE (27 - 17) at CLEVELAND (13 - 32) - 1/29/2013, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 35-21 ATS (+11.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 18-32 ATS (-17.2 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 4-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 4-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MILWAUKEE (23 - 19) at DETROIT (17 - 27) - 1/29/2013, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in a home game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 6-4 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 6-4 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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DALLAS (19 - 25) at PORTLAND (22 - 22) - 1/29/2013, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 277-221 ATS (+33.9 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
DALLAS is 63-45 ATS (+13.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in January games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in road games against Northwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
PORTLAND is 6-14 ATS (-9.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 8-6 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 9-5 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
9 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NEW ORLEANS (15 - 29) at LA LAKERS (19 - 25) - 1/29/2013, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 130-172 ATS (-59.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game since 1996.
NEW ORLEANS is 54-37 ATS (+13.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 50-28 ATS (+19.2 Units) in road games in January games since 1996.
NEW ORLEANS is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 49-71 ATS (-29.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 8-6 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 12-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
7 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up
Tuesday, January 29
Hot Teams
-- Cleveland won four of last five games (5-8 HU). Warriors won four of last six games (3-2-1 AF).
-- Bucks won four of last five games (5-2 last seven AU).
-- Mavericks won six of last eight games (8-4 last 12 AU).
-- Lakers won last two games, by 18-9 points (11-10 HF, 3-1 last four). New Orleans won three of last four road games (15-6 AU).
Cold Teams
-- Pistons are 4-5 in last nine games (0-4 last four HF).
-- Trailblazers lost seven of last nine games (4-9-2 HF).
Totals
-- Five of last six Golden State games went over the total.
-- Last four Milwaukee games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Dallas games went over the total.
-- Eight of last ten Laker games stayed under the total.
Back-to-backs
-- Warriors are 4-2-1 vs spread on road if they played night before.
NBA
Tuesday, January 29
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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
GOLDEN STATE vs. CLEVELAND
Golden State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Golden State is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games at home
Cleveland is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games at home
7:30 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. DETROIT
Milwaukee is 4-17 SU in its last 21 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Milwaukee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Detroit is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games at home
10:00 PM
DALLAS vs. PORTLAND
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing on the road against Portland
Portland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
Portland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
10:30 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. LA LAKERS
New Orleans is 1-8 SU in their last 9 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
New Orleans is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing LA Lakers
LA Lakers are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games when playing at home against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 11 of the LA Lakers last 16 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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01-29-13 10:50 PM |
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