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bbaffert
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 6901

San Fran/Seattle BET THE SHED!

First a message from our sponsor... to not read or if you have read scroll down quickly. If not, please read.

Still struggling, if your winning with me please help us out if you can. Wife stats work January 2nd and right now I have around $25 to my name. The help everyone has given has been great. I just have one more rent and a water bill coming fast.

As for Christmas, we are not really having it until February when we get out tax refunds back. One buddy is sending a couple gift cards and toys for my girls so they will be ok.

So here it is for the last time, if you can help, we need it. If I get enough to make it through early January my wife will start working and taxes will come, THANK GOD!

Read the story here and donate:
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NOW THE PICK
San Francisco PK or +1

Whatever you can get it at. They are the much more dominate team on both sides. This line is only due to Seattle beating up on weak teams by large margins the last couple of weeks. San Fran says Try that with US! It is just not going to happen. Seattle strength without doubt is Lynch. VS SF run D, forget it. That is the key. Sea does not have enough weapons to deal with SF on either side of the ball.

I will add some fluff but SF should not be a pk or a dog here. They should be the favorite. They are much better than this Seattle team.

Old Post 12-23-12 09:29 PM
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bbaffert
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 6901

49ers Run Blocking vs. Seahawks Defensive Line

The biggest mismatch, and the biggest surprise, in the first meeting between these two teams was San Francisco’s absolute domination of Seattle’s defensive line in the running game. Frank Gore averaged 8.2 yards per carry, with 84 of his 131 rushing yards coming before contact. Every time Gore grabbed a handoff, he ran an average of 5.3 yards past the line of scrimmage before a Seahawks defender even touched him. The 49ers ran at will in all directions, but most of their success came behind their interior line, where they averaged an absurd 15.8 yards on six carries into the A-gaps. That makes sense when the charge is led by Jonathan Goodwin, whose +11.7 run block grade this season ranks sixth among centers, and Mike Iupati and Alex Boone, who’s +21.7 and +18.3 marks rank second and third among guards, respectively.

Needless to say, this performance did not reflect well on a Seahawks defensive line that prides itself on being physical. All four starters recorded a career-low run defense grade in the five years we’ve been charting games. Eight Seattle defensive linemen who took a snap combined for just two run stops between them (both coming from defensive end Red Bryant). Brandon Mebane’s 9.1 Run Stop Percentage ranks third among all defensive tackles, but that Thursday night he was simply pushed around all game by the 49er linemen. And to think, all this happened before the 49ers had an aggressive running threat at quarterback.

Colin Kaepernick vs. Seahawks Cornerbacks

As good as the 49ers were on the ground in Week 7, they were powerless through the air. In a game tailor-made for Alex Smith detractors, the veteran quarterback completed 70% of his passes, but was just two of six for 32 yards on throws that traveled 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. Coming off a big win against the New England Patriots (albeit one that he nearly fumbled away), Kaepernick certainly looks like a tougher matchup for the Seahawks. His 101.90 PFF QB Rating is tops among quarterbacks, and his 79.3% Accuracy Rate is nearly as good as Smith’s league-leading 81.2% mark. He still only throws 20+ yards downfield on 11.7% of his attempts, but his 302 yards this season on such throws have already surpasses Smith’s total of 293. More importantly, while Smith took a sack 33.8% of the times he faced pressure (the highest rate in the NFL), Kaepernick has been sacked on only 21.2%, despite facing a higher rate of pressure.

In his first start against the Seahawks, Kaepernick will face a secondary that is flush with depth, but also uncertainty. Seattle hopes that Richard Sherman’s appeal today for a four-game drug suspension doesn’t keep him out of the game. As our fourth-highest-graded corner, he’ll try to bounce back from a tough matchup with Stevie Johnson to shadow Michael Crabtree, who has 301 yards over his past three games. Brandon Browner’s suspension continues, and Walter Thurmond and Marcus Trufant are both dealing with hamstring injuries, so Seattle may again have to rely heavily on rookie Jeremy Lane and second-year corner Byron Maxwell. Lane held the Buffalo Bills to 29 yards on seven targets, and Maxwell was our Best Defensive Sub for Week 15, but that was the first time either of them had played more than 50% of the snaps in a game. You can be certain that Harbaugh is devising some ways for Kaepernick to test these two.

Russell Okung and Breno Giacomini vs. Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks

The 49ers badgered Russell Wilson into a 38.7 passer rating in Week 7, his lowest of the season. But the rookie QB appears to be improving each week, and his 94.52 PFF QB Rating is fifth-best among all current starters. The Seahawks must keep him upright this week, and much of that responsibility falls on the shoulders of their offensive tackles. Russell Okung didn’t surrender a QB pressure against the 49ers the first time around, and his 97.1 Pass Blocking Efficiency this season is the fourth-highest among tackles. On the other side, outside linebackers Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks terrorized right tackle Breno Giacomini with four hurries and a sack. Smith’s excellence is well-documented, as his 12.0 Pass Rush Productivity leads all 3-4 outside linebackers. But Brooks is no slouch either, with an 8.3 PRP mark and the fifth-most QB pressures at his position. If Justin Smith is healthy enough to demand double-teams on the inside, then these one-on-one matchups on the edges will be critical to how much time Wilson has to operate.

Old Post 12-23-12 09:30 PM
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bbaffert
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Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 6901

Seattle's Best Receiver? Does not matter if he plays or not but ...

Coach Pete Carroll told reporters after Friday's practice that Sidney Rice (knee, questionable) will be a game-time decision in Week 16 against San Francisco.

Carroll acknowledged that Rice is likely to play against the Niners, but the fact that his status won't be formally known until a pre-game workout suggests Rice isn't close to 100 percent. The 49ers' physical press coverage stifled Rice in these teams' Week 7 meeting, holding him to 32 yards on two receptions. Golden Tate didn't even record a catch. Rice is best viewed as a weak WR3 option in title week. The injury may affect his on-field impact. Dec 21 - 4:31 PM

Old Post 12-23-12 09:33 PM
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Badger24
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jul 2006
Posts: 883

San Fran is +3 at intertops

Teaser looks good Sf +10 and under 46

Old Post 12-23-12 10:43 PM
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playtowin


Registered: Apr 2006
Posts: 7232

Larry King is on Sea, he is 16-2 with his picks on the season,
he had Mia-4.5 & Sea today for his picks.
The T.V. & Radio host.

Old Post 12-23-12 10:54 PM
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bbaffert
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 6901

Tonight again?

Last night you come in a promote some site with a different pick than mine, it was wrong and you may have turned people off a winner.

Tonight, some other stuff. What about my record on the nfl? What about my record on shed bets? Let me give you a hint, it is better than the one you mentioned.

Just saying. You may have cost people last night, if for some reason you are right, then you are 1-1. If I am wrong, it will be the first time on a shed bet this year.

Old Post 12-23-12 11:25 PM
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danny07
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Nov 2003
Posts: 1302

You do great work man!




The Greatest enemy of excellence is good !

NFL 12 SEASON
ATS 10-3
TEASER 3-5
TOTALS 4-1
ML DOGS 6-1
+2885.00
NBA 2012
ATS 6-3
+ 290.00

NFL 11 SEASON
ATS 9-4-1
TOTALS 5-1
TEASERS 8-3
ML DOGS 6-3
ML PARLAYS 4-1
+3855

+NFL 10 SEASON
ATS 25- 7
TOTAL 11-8
TEASERS 8-5
ML DOGS7-2
ML Parlay 2-1
+4975

NBA 09/10
ATS 4-1
+290.0

Old Post 12-23-12 11:55 PM
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danny07
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Nov 2003
Posts: 1302

The kicker Akers for SF concerns me as he is 25 for 35 71 %




The Greatest enemy of excellence is good !

NFL 12 SEASON
ATS 10-3
TEASER 3-5
TOTALS 4-1
ML DOGS 6-1
+2885.00
NBA 2012
ATS 6-3
+ 290.00

NFL 11 SEASON
ATS 9-4-1
TOTALS 5-1
TEASERS 8-3
ML DOGS 6-3
ML PARLAYS 4-1
+3855

+NFL 10 SEASON
ATS 25- 7
TOTAL 11-8
TEASERS 8-5
ML DOGS7-2
ML Parlay 2-1
+4975

NBA 09/10
ATS 4-1
+290.0

Old Post 12-24-12 12:06 AM
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oChRoNiCo
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2008
Posts: 1436

Don't worry about people posting stuff in your thread man. I used to worry about it myself hence I don't post anymore myself. The fact of the matter is playtowin is just a hater not much else you can do man people always gonna hate when your doing well just brush off your shoulder and keep putting in work!




The evidence we have found has led us to the conclusion that the negative image of gamblers, of speculators and of gambling is due to prejudice, to the distorted image heavily promoted by some powerful groups who, however, have not had much evidence to support their views.
- Reuven and Gabrielle A Brenner

Old Post 12-24-12 12:26 AM
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mikeb104
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2006
Posts: 7083

Thanks for posting these Mike.

Don't worry about anything else my man.


BOL tonight.




"Not everything you read on the internet is accurate"- Abraham Lincoln

Old Post 12-24-12 12:30 AM
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bbaffert
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 6901

Chronic

Not worried about it, just does not make sense to me and that drives me nuts. Seems he is searching for winners every week and gets on one and they lose so he jumps on another bandwagon. I think he has two threads on this same game and then posts here. I mean, add value somehow. He just has the feel of a tout.

Thanks though. I just do not want him to take people of wins. I think he may have last night doing something similar.

Old Post 12-24-12 12:34 AM
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bbaffert
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 6901

You tha man Mike!

Danny, Akers is strange. He can hit from record distance at 63 but can miss some in the 30's and 40's. I think I read he has some kinda pelvic injury so maybe that is it. Who knows, he is just strange. His numbers year in and year out are just odd.

I know both of these guys can kick long ones though. I see some rain but not worried. The only worry is Justin Smith being out but I think that is one of the reasons the line is where it is.

My main reason for the play is I think Seattle is overrated coming into this game because they beat a couple slug teams by a lot. Home field is good for Seattle but SF has won in some tough environments this year, at GB, at NE, at NO. All of those are not easy places to win at.

GL ALL, except L.King.

Old Post 12-24-12 12:40 AM
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doubled1511
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2011
Posts: 1503

Big hole. Hope sf turns it around but they just look timid to me. They look like they don't want to be there. I trust your judgement but its hard to cap effort. Good luck the rest of the way. We're gonna need it.

Old Post 12-24-12 02:36 AM
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bbaffert
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 6901

Looks like the shed will fall tonight for the first time this season.

This will be the first nfl play I have missed this month I am 99% sure.

I am only human. My nfl posted on this board this year is somewhere in the vicinity of 28-8. So many easy wins, like Minnesota today.

I hate that the regular season is coming to an end. I hope some of you guys benefited, I worked my ass of studying and picking the best games I could.

You guys have a great Christmas.

Old Post 12-24-12 03:21 AM
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BIG BAD BILL
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Dec 2006
Posts: 6923

Merry Christmas Mike to you and yours.Thanks for all that you do,here.Keep them coming. I will talk with you again soon.Take Care!
Bill




2008 Thru 2012 Posted Picks
1556-1348
+53.6%

2012
332-278
54.43%

Old Post 12-24-12 03:34 AM
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nxt2g


Registered: Dec 2007
Posts: 255

Good effort bud but fell on the wrong side tonight, it happens. Wish I would have saw this earlier I would of loved to have a conversation battling this pick with valued opinions. I liked Seattle and very rarely bet against them at home. Hinsight is a ***** obviously but I do enjoy conversations with you over plays. Keep up the great work.




"I figured that if I said it enough, I would convince the world that I really was the greatest." -Muhammad Ali

Old Post 12-24-12 05:16 AM
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bbaffert
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 6901

Waking up this morning.

Thanks guys.

I think one issue I really underrated was that SEATTLE crowd. I have not seen them play an actual game there in I am not sure how many years. GEEZ! Those guys are loud. Something for me to remember, Do not mess with a solid Seattle team at home. I really had no idea it was that wild. I think they genuinely affect games, besides the cannot hear and timeouts. Those Hawks players were getting it done. That adrenalin from all those fans was wicked. NOTED!

I am still not sold on Seattle on the road. Will be looking for that right playoff line.

Old Post 12-24-12 02:20 PM
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sprtsouth


Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 624

colin was confused .

Old Post 12-24-12 05:44 PM
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bbaffert
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 6901

huh?

Old Post 12-24-12 05:59 PM
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