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CNOTES
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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 15
Bengals (7-6) @ Eagles (4-9)—Tend to favor contending team in these short-week games, since injured guys more likely to suck it up and play, but Cincy gagged away game with Dallas last week, ending 4-game win streak; AJ Green caught three balls for 44 yards, dropped two passes in clutch spots that cost Bengals four points each in game they should’ve won. Bengals won last two road games, didn’t allow offensive TD on 21 drives; they are 3-3 as favorite this year, 1-1 on road. Since 2010, they’re 4-2-1 as road favorites. Iggles snapped 8-game skid with win at Tampa Sun day, scoring on last play of game; they’ve lost last four home games, allowing 31 ppg (13 TD’s/43 drives). Cincy leads this series 7-3-1, are 4-3 here; last time these teams met was 13-13 tie in ’08, last NFL tie until Rams-Niners last month. AFC North favorites are 9-11 vs spread, 4-4 on road; NFC East underdogs are 10-5, 1-2 at home. Last five Bengal games stayed under; five of six Philly home games went over.
Packers (9-4) @ Bears (8-5)— Bears are 5-2 at home, and division lead is at stake here, but these are two teams going in opposite directions. Green Bay (-6) beat Bears 23-10 in Week 2 Thursday nighter, picking off four passes, holding Cutler to 11-27/74 passing; it was 7th win in last eight meetings in this ancient rivalry. Pack won three of last four visits here, winning 21-14/27-17 in last two. Pack won seven of last eight games, taking three of last four on road after losing first two away games- they’re 6-5 as favorites this year, 2-2 on road; since ’07, they’re 16-12 as road favorites, 9-4 in divisional games. GB ran ball for 152-140 yards last two weeks, converted 14-27 on 3rd down. Chicago is now 7-16 without Urlacher; they’ve lost four of last five games overall, allowing 176-171 rushing yards last two weeks. NFC North home favorites are 4-3 vs the spread. Last four Green Bay games stayed under the total.
Giants (8-5) @ Falcons (11-2)—Giants are 8-0 when they score 26+ points, 0-5 when they don’t; would expect strong effort for hosts after they got pasted at Carolina last week. Atlanta allowed 30+ points in both losses, but held six of last nine opponents to 20 or less points; they’re 6-0 at home, with five of six wins by 6 or less points. Falcons were held under 80 yards rushing in four of last five games; would expect them to try and run it here more (Giants allowed 207-142 rushing yards last two games). Giants are 3-3 on road, scoring 13-16 points in last two (two offensive TD’s on 20 drives)- they’re +5 in turnovers last three weeks, +16 for season. Big Blue whacked Atlanta 24-2 in LY’s playoffs, fourth straight series win (average score 29-14); Giants won last seven visits to Atlanta (last here in ’04), with last loss here at old Fulton County Stadium in ’78. Four of last five Giant games, three of last four Atlanta games stayed under the total. Underdogs are 13-4 vs spread in NFC East non-divisional road tilts. NFC South home teams are 6-11 against spread out of their division.
Buccaneers (6-7) @ Saints (5-8)—Both teams lost last three games, as playoff hopes slip away; Saints (-1.5) escaped Tampa with 35-28 back in Week 7, when Bucs’ tying TD on last play was waved off because WR stepped OB earlier on his route. Bucs outgained NO 513-458 that day; Freeman was 24-42/415 passing. This season series has split in each of last four years; Bucs are 3-2 in last five visits here. Tampa is 5-2 as underdogs this year, 3-0 on artificial turf; they’ve won three of last four road games SU. Saints allowed 35.3 ppg last three weeks; they’ve won three of last four home games, covered last four games as a favorite (4-3 for year). Brees threw nine picks in last three games, as -6 turnover ratio in those games doomed playoffs chances on Bourbon Street. NO had 30-yard disadvantage in field position last week, which doesn’t count KR they allowed for TD. NFC South home teams are 5-3 vs spread. Three of last four Tampa games stayed under total; four of Saints’ last five games went over.
Vikings (7-6) @ Rams (6-6-1)—St Louis is getting most out of team with limited offense, winning last three games despite scoring three offensive TDs (defense also scored three); Fisher’s spunky bunch is 6-1 vs spread this year in games with spread of 4 or less points. Rams are 4-2 at home, 0-1 as favorites; their home wins are by 3-6-14-3 points. Since 2004, Rams are just 8-18 vs spread as home favorites. Minnesota is 1-5 on road, 1-3 as road dogs; they didn’t scored offensive TD (had two return TD’s) in only road win, 20-13 at Detroit in Week 4. Since 2008, Vikings are 10-15-1 as road dogs. Vikes are 2-3 in five visits here, with coming in ’09; average total in last eight series games, 57.1. NFC West home favorites are 6-4 vs spread. NFC North road dogs are 1-5. Last three Minnesota games stayed under; five of last seven Ram games went over (last two stayed under). Rams are 4-2 SU (5-1 vs spread) when game stayed under, 2-4-1 SU (4-3 vs spread) when it goes over.
Redskins (7-6) @ Browns (5-8)—Health of RGIII (knee) key issue here, since rookie Cousins gets first NFL start if Griffin can’t go. Washington won/covered last four games, beating three division rivals and regional rival Ravens, with Cousins leading tying drive in last minute last week. Skins are 3-3 on road, 4-1 as road underdogs, with five of six games going over total- their road losses are by 3-4-15 points. Redskins averaged 168.2 rushing ypg in last five games, but lot of that was RGIII’s mobility on read option plays- Cousins won’t be doing that. Browns gave up 80-yard run on first play last week but then blanked Chiefs rest of way- they’re 2-0 vs spread as favorites this year (last two games). Cleveland won/covered its last three games, allowing 12.7 ppg (4 TD’s on 36 drives); they won four of last five games, are 5-3 SU since 0-5 start. NFC East road underdogs are 8-3 vs spread. AFC North home favorites are 5-7. Under is 6-0-1 in Browns’ last seven games.
Jaguars (2-10) @ Dolphins (5-8)— Miami lost five of last six games after 4-3 start; only two of its five wins are by more than 4 points. Dolphins are 0-3 as favorites this year; since ’03, they’re 8-33 vs spread as a home favorite. Yes, 8-33. Jax is 5-1 vs spread on road, despite winning only one of six games; their road losses are by 3-3-9-6-16 points; only win was 22-17 at Indy, when they hit 80-yard TD pass in last 2:00. Only non-cover was 34-18 at Buffalo in last road game, two weeks ago. Jags are just 3-26 on 3rd down in last two years; they’ve been outsacked 14-2 last three games. Home team lost last three series games, with average total 30.7; Jaguars won 24-10 in only visit here, in 2006. Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Dolphin games, 1-3 in Jaguars’ last four road games. In fairness, Miami’s last three games were vs Seattle-49ers-Patriots, three playoff teams, but hard to endorse them laying seven points. AFC East favorites are 10-7 vs spread, 6-5 at home.AFC South underdogs are 11-12, 6-7 on the road.
Broncos (10-3) @ Ravens (9-4)—A winning team firing its OC on December 10, after game where Ravens scored 28 points, but defense gave up tying score in last minute? All is not well in Baltimore, where eight of 13 Raven games were decided by 3 or less points. New OC Caldwell (former Colt coach) has never called plays at this level, bad news vs Denver team that won its last eight games (6-2 vs spread) after 2-3 start vs brutal schedule. Broncos are 5-2 SU on road, 3-1 vs spread as road favorites. Ravens are 5-1 at home, losing only to rival Steelers; they’re 1-2 as underdogs this year. Since 2003, they’re 5-7 as home dogs, but this is first time since ’09 they’re in that role. Denver kept four of last five opponents under 75 rushing yards; curious to see how Ravens’ offense is different this week. Five of six Raven home games went over total, as did six of last nine Denver games. You knew Ravens had issues when they split pair of 3-point decisions with Big Ben-less Steelers.
Colts (9-4) @ Texans (11-2)—Storybook Colts won three in row, seven of last eight games; seven of their nine wins are by 4 or less points, or in OT. Three of their four losses are by 20+ points. Indy is just 2-3 as road underdogs this year; that includes wild 35-33 comeback win over Lions (two TDs in last 2:39) two weeks ago. Short week for hosts after Monday night debacle in Foxboro; they crushed the Ravens week after their first loss. Since ’09, Houston is 12-10-1 vs spread in game following a loss. Texans are 4-2 as home favorites, losing to Packers, winning at home by 20-24-30-12-6 points. Indy has three return TDs in last five games, but 18 of their last 21 offensive TDs came on drives of 74+ yards. Houston clinches division with win here, could blow #1 seed in AFC with loss; they’re 3-17 all-time vs Indy, but won last two meetings here, 34-24/34-7. AFC South home teams are 2-7 against spread, 1-4 when favored. Three of last four games for both sides went over the total.
Panthers (4-9) @ Chargers (5-8)—Carolina coach Rivera came to Panthers from San Diego; now both staffs are likely to be unemployed in three weeks. Panthers split last six games after 1-5 start; they won two of last three road games, covered four of last five- their road losses are by 6-2-1-6 points. As bad as they are, Carolina was favorite in three of first six road games- they’re 3-0 as road underdogs. San Diego had unlikely win at Pittsburgh last week; hard to tell how much of a carrot potential 8-8 finish is to players. Chargers lost four of last five home games, scoring one offensive TD on last 22 home drives- they’re 4-3 as favorites this year, 2-2 at home, Since 2010, Bolts are 10-8 as home favorites. Home side lost three of four in seldom-played series; Panthers won both visits here, 26-7/26-24. NFC South road underdogs are 9-3 vs spread. AFC West favorites are 6-5 against spread, 4-3 at home. 7 of last 10 San Diego games, four of last five Carolina games went over the total.
Seahawks (8-5) vs Bills (5-8) (Toronto)—Seattle heads to Canada winners in four of last five games, but they’re 2-5 on road, winning 16-12 (+3) at 4-9 Carolina in Week 5, 23-17 (OT, +3) at skidding Bears two weeks ago. All seven Seahawks road games were decided by 7 or less points. Marshawn Lynch will be fired up to run pigskin against his old team; Seattle ran ball for 176-284 yards last two weeks. Bills held last four opponents under 90 rushing yards- their goal here has to do same with Lynch and make rookie QB Wilson beat them passing, which he hasn’t been that good at on road, averaging 17 ppg on road (21-23 in last two away games). Buffalo lost five of last seven games after hopeful 3-3 start; they blanked Redskins in Toronto LY, snapping 3-game skid north of border. Bills are 2-5 vs spread as underdog this year; they’re 11-16-3 vs spread in last 30 games vs NFC teams. Five of last six Seattle games went over total; only one of Buffalo’s last four games did. Average total in last seven series games is 47.6. NFC West favorites are 8-6; AFC East underdogs are 8-8.
Lions (4-9) @ Cardinals (4-9)—Detroit tied NFL record last week by losing third game in row, when they led by 10+ points in all three games; good news is they led by 10+ points- if they get up 10 on Arizona, how can inept Redbirds come back? Cardinals do not have NFL-level QB on their roster; they were down 38-0 at half last week in Seattle, their ninth loss in row after 4-0 start. Arizona has five TDs on last 78 drives, while allowing five return TDs during same span- they’re 5-4 vs spread as a dog this year, and are 3-3 SU at home. Lions lost five games in row, allowing 32 ppg in last three- they’re 2-5 on road, winning by 3 at Philly, 17 at Jax’ville. Detroit is 2-5 as favorite this year; over last 11 years, they’re 2-6-2 vs spread when favored on foreign soil. Lions lost last five visits to desert; their only win here was in ’93. Seems like long time ago (Week 2) Arizona beat the Patriots in Foxboro. NFC North favorites are 10-13 vs spread, 4-3 on road. NFC West underdogs are 13-6 vs spread, 4-1 at home. If you wager on this game, report directly to your nearest GA meeting.
Steelers (7-6) @ Cowboys (7-6)—Dallas is 2-6 vs spread when favored this year, 0-5 at home; since start of 2010, they’re 3-16 vs spread as a home favorite, but they’ve won three of last four games overall, despite being outscored 71-23 in first half of those games. Dallas scored average of 23.4 ppg, just in second half of last five games. Free-falling Steelers (lost three of last four games) allowed Chargers to convert 12-22 on 3rd down last week in ugly 34-24 home loss (San Diego had converted 10 of previous 43 3rd downs coming in). Pittsburgh ran ball for 71.3 ypg last three weeks; even Big Ben’s return didn’t help. Underdogs covered last six Steeler games; Pitt is 3-4 SU on road, 2-1 as road dogs, losing away games by 12-3-3-6 points. Teams split 30 series games, but Steelers won last two 24-20/20-13, and won two of three Super Bowl meetings, but they’ve lost seven of last nine visits here. Four of last five Dallas home games went over the total. NFC East home favorites are 5-8 vs spread; AFC North underdogs are 6-8 against the spread, 3-6 on foreign soil.
Chiefs (2-11) @ Raiders (3-10)—Never thought I’d see day where these two teams are among NFL’s worst. Visitors won 10 of last 11 series games; Chiefs won eight of last nine visits here, but lost nine of last 10 games overall, losing last four away games by 28-18-3-23 points. KC is 2-4 as a road underdog this year, after being 21-14-1 from 2007-11. Oakland lost last six (0-6 vs spread) games, scoring 13.3 ppg in last three games; they’re 0-3 as favorites this year; since 2003, they’re 8-22 vs spread when favored at home. Raiders’ wins this year are by 3-10-3 points, so difficult to lay FG. Chiefs’ offense is horrific, scoring 13 or less points in five of last six games; they’ve scored six TDs on last 61 drives. Last three Oakland games, four of Chiefs’ last five games stayed under the total. Road teams covered six of nine AFC West divisional games; home favorites are 2-3. Much like the Detroit-Arizona game, not much to choose from here.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-14-12 12:35 AM |
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CNOTES
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49ers (9-3-1) @ Patriots (10-3)—New England off impressive thrashing of Texans Monday night; they have to keep going, since Broncos are on their tail for #2 seed in AFC, which brings first-round bye in playoffs. Patriots won last seven games, covered three of last four; they’re 3-3 as home favorites, winning last five games in Foxboro by 10-3-6-35-28 points. Pats scored 11 TDs on last 21 drives at home, against teams with combined record of 20-6. 49ers are 4-2 on road, with both losses in domes (Vikings/Rams); they scored 13-3-13 points in three losses, 24 in their tie. Patriots held last three opponents under 20 points, but they’re hardly dominant defensive team, instead relying on takeaways (+24 turnover margin). 49ers are 4-1-1 vs spread last six times they were an underdog. Brady is from northern California, so this game figures to be special for him. 10 of last 11 Patriot games, four of last five Niner games went over the total. AFC East favorites are 10-7 vs spread, 6-5 at home. NFC West road dogs are 9-5.
Jets (6-7) @ Titans (5-8)—As bad as the Jets have been, as awful as their QB play has been, they close with Titans-Chargers-Bills; its not impossible they could still make playoffs. Go figure. Gang Green won three of last four games, allowing 13 or less points in all three wins; they’re 3-3 on road, losing at Pitt-Foxboro-Seattle. Tennessee lost four of last six games, as young QB Locker gets experience; he’s kind of a right-handed Tebow, athletic as hell, not an accurate passer. Titans are 2-4 at home, with both wins by a FG (Lions/Steelers). Jets ran ball for 177-166 yards last two games, as they try to take pressure off Sanchez, who has horrible set of WRs; expect more of same here. Jets won five of last six series games, winning three of four here, but last of those was in ’08. AFC East road underdogs are 5-7 vs spread; AFC South home favorites are 5-1. Did you know before the Jets were the Jets, they were the New York Titans?
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-14-12 12:36 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
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NFL
Thursday, December 13
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Thursday Night Football: Bengals at Eagles
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Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles (+4, 45.5)
The Cincinnati Bengals let a golden opportunity slip through their fingers against one NFC East team this past weekend. The Bengals would like to prevent the same from happening again on Thursday when they visit the struggling Philadelphia Eagles. Cincinnati's bid to record its fifth straight victory and eighth overall was thwarted by Dallas on the final play. As a result, the Bengals remained two games shy of AFC North-leading Baltimore and a tiebreaker behind Pittsburgh for the final playoff berth in the conference.
Postseason discussion has long been tabled in Philadelphia, which snapped an eight-game losing skid with a 23-21 triumph over Tampa Bay this past weekend. Nick Foles gave the Eagles some confidence for the future by throwing for a rookie franchise-best 381 yards. The third-round pick also engineered the game-winning drive, which was capped by his 1-yard touchdown pass to Jeremy Maclin.
TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network.
LINE: Cincinnati opened as a field-goal favorite in Philadelphia and has since been bet up as high as -4.5. The total opened at 46 and has dropped to 45.5.
WEATHER: The forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the mid 30s. Winds will blow NW at 2 mph.
CONSENSUS: Sixty-five percent of Covers Consensus picks are on the Bengals. Fifty-two percent are picking the over.
ABOUT THE BENGALS (7-6, 6-6-1 ATS): Cincinnati stud WR A.J. Green had a pair of inexplicable drops en route to being held out of the end zone for the third time in as many games on Sunday. Prior to this drought, Green had scored in nine straight contests. The Bengals can't afford to dwell on Sunday's loss or look beyond the Eagles, although a visit to Pittsburgh (Dec. 23) and a home game versus Baltimore (Dec. 30) could go a long way in deciding if they make the playoffs.
ABOUT THE EAGLES (4-9, 3-9-1 ATS): Maclin is clearly impressed with Foles, who has just four starts under his belt. "You guys are seeing Nick Foles grow into a phenomenal quarterback right in front of your eyes," Maclin said. "I think the sky is the limit for him." Foles hasn't thrown an interception in the last 14 quarters, although the aggressive Bengals defense could pressure him into mistakes. Cincinnati leads the league with 42 sacks.
TRENDS:
* Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Bengals are 1-7-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss.
* Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five Thursday games.
* Eagles are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 home games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Although Bengals RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis failed to notch his fourth consecutive 100-yard game, he sits just 26 shy of his second straight 1,000-yard season.
2. Philadelphia TE Clay Harbor, who reeled in the first of two touchdown passes by Foles, will likely start on Thursday in place of the concussed Brent Celek.
3. The teams played to a 13-13 tie in their last encounter on Nov. 16, 2008. The game is likely best remembered for then-Eagles QB Donovan McNabb admitting that he didn't know an NFL contest could end in a tie.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-14-12 12:40 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12040
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NFL
Thursday, December 13
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Tale of the tape: Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles
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The Philadelphia Eagles will aim to play spoiler when they host the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday Night Football. Find out which side has the edge with our tale of the tape.
Offense
After scoring at least 28 points in three consecutive games the Bengals offense has sputtered over the last couple of weeks, putting up only 39 points combined in splitting two games against the Chargers and Cowboys. Quarterback Andy Dalton has already thrown more interceptions this season (14) than he did in his entire rookie campaign last year (13). Of course, he's also thrown five more touchdown passes. Cincinnati has made a concerted effort to get its ground game rolling and RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis has responded by running for 437 yards over the last four games.
The Eagles offense has shown steady improvement since rookie QB Nick Foles took over for an injured Michael Vick. Last Sunday, Foles threw for a career-high 381 yards and two touchdowns in a come-from-behind win over the Bucs. While RB Bryce Brown had been a force in the previous two weeks, he was held to only six yards on 12 carries in Tampa Bay. They'll need to get him going again with LeSean McCoy expected to miss at least one more game.
Edge: Bengals
Defense
When healthy, the Bengals own one of the more underrated defenses in the entire league. It looks like LB Rey Maualuga will be able to play Thursday after suffering an ankle injury against Dallas. You would have to go all the way back to November 4 to find the last time the Bengals allowed more than 20 points in a game. They've held four of their last five opponents to 13 points or less, paving the way for a five-game under streak.
The Eagles finally stopped the bleeding this past Sunday, holding the Bucs to 21 points after allowing at least 30 in four consecutive games. They limited Bucs QB Josh Freeman to only 14-of-34 passing, but didn't record a single turnover in the win. In fact, they haven't forced a turnover since November 5 in New Orleans. That's a streak that will need to come to an end if they're going to string together a second straight win this week. Corner Nnamdi Asomugha is questionable to play due to a quad injury.
Edge: Bengals
Special teams
Cincinnati has been terrific defending punt returns, holding the opposition to just north of eight yards per return. It has also been effective on the flip side, averaging 11.6 yards per punt return and 22.9 yards per kickoff return. Bengals kicker Mike Nugent is 19 for 23 on field goal attempts this season, but he was forced to miss last week's game due to a calf injury. Josh Brown made good on all four field goal attempts in Nugent's absence last Sunday.
The Eagles fall right around the league average in terms of punt and kick returning, but have struggled defending them, giving up 13.7 yards per punt return and 26 yards per kickoff return. Kicker Alex Henery has been a bright spot, connecting on 23 of 26 field goal attempts.
Edge: Bengals
Word on the street
“We have the opportunity to still control our own end, from now until the end. We still have an opportunity to win the division. We still have an opportunity to qualify for the playoffs in a couple of ways. That’s all we can ask for." -- Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis on his team's playoff prospects following last Sunday's loss to Dallas.
"More important than (playing the spoiler is to) play for yourself. Play for this organization. Those are the things we’re going to try to do right now and we have another good opportunity to do that Thursday." -- Eagles WR Jeremy Maclin on what's left to play for as the season winds down.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-14-12 12:41 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
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NFL
Short Sheet
Week 15
Thursday, December 13, 2012
Cincinnati at Philadelphia, 8:25 ET
Cincinnati: 16-6 ATS against NFC East division opponents
Philadelphia: 1-5 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders
NFL
Short Sheet
Week 15
Sunday, December 16, 2012
Green Bay at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Green Bay: 9-1 ATS vs. division opponents
Chicago: 8-1 Over at home off a division game
NY Giants at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
NY Giants: 11-3 ATS off a home win
Atlanta: 30-8 Over off a division road loss
Tampa Bay at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 2-9 ATS off BB losses
New Orleans: 9-2 ATS at home vs. conference opponents
Minnesota at St. Louis, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 1-9 ATS off a home win
St. Louis: 7-0 Under off a SU win
Washington at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Washington: 6-0 ATS off a home game
Cleveland: 9-0 Under in December
Jacksonville at Miami, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 15-5 Over off a home game
Miami: 6-0 ATS off a non-conference game
Denver at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
Denver: 7-1 ATS as a favorite
Baltimore: 8-0 Over off a loss by 6 points or less
Indianapolis at Houston, 1:00 ET
Indianapolis: 15-4 Over as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points
Houston: 17-6 ATS vs. conference opponents
Carolina at San Diego, 4:05 ET
Carolina: 13-4 Over as an underdog
San Diego: 0-7 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
Seattle at Buffalo, 4:05 ET
Seattle: 1-14 ATS off a division win by 21+ points
Buffalo: 13-5 Over as an underdog
Detroit at Arizona, 4:05 ET
Detroit: 5-18 ATS as a road favorite
Arizona: 26-13 ATS at home off 3+ losses
Pittsburgh at Dallas, 4:25 ET
Pittsburgh: 11-2 ATS off a SU loss
Dallas: 0-6 ATS off a road win
Kansas City at Oakland, 4:25 ET
Kansas City: 17-6 ATS away off a road loss
Oakland: 6-21 ATS off 3+ games scoring 17 points or less
(TC) San Francisco at New England, 8:30 ET NBC
San Francisco: 0-6 ATS away in December
New England: 7-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
Monday, December 17, 2012
(TC) NY Jets at Tennessee, 8:40 ET ESPN
NY Jets: 12-2 Over off an Under
Tennessee: 2-9 ATS as a favorite
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-14-12 12:42 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12040
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Las Vegas Sharps Report- NFL Week 15
This is shaping up as one of the most exciting NFL Sundays of the modern era, with multiple marquee matchups up and down the “Showdown Sunday” schedule. Of course sharps and sports bettors are much more focused on money-making opportunities rather than entertainment opportunities. Let’s see what professional wagerers in Las Vegas have been doing with their money so far for Week 15 in the NFL.
Games are discussed in Nevada rotation order so you can make notes in your schedules.
GREEN BAY AT CHICAGO:
Very little betting interest in this game yet. Green Bay opened at -3 and 42, and is now -3 and 42.5 (with some 43’s out there). So, we have some action on the Over, which tells you_ weather won’t be an issue again despite this being a cold weather city in late December. Sharps would fade any public move one way or the other because they believe three is the right line based on how these teams have been playing lately.
NY GIANTS AT ATLANTA:
Limited interest here as well, though the Giants are a popular choice for two-team teasers in spots where they’re getting +1.5. The six-point adjustment moves NYG past the 3 and the 7 to +7.5. Some stores are considering staying at Atlanta -1 so they don’t have to worry about getting flooded with basic strategy teasers on a quality team. The total has dropped from an opener of 52 to 51, anticipating a playoff atmosphere that would feature conservative play and tight defense.
TAMPA BAY AT NEW ORLEANS:
Clear Sharp sentiment on the home favorite here even though it’s only a half point move. New Orleans opened at -3, and is now -3.5. We’ve told you often this year that it takes a lot of money to move off the three. If a number moves off a key line, then STAYS there, then you know the Sharp side. No buy back on the Bucs at +3.5. Sharps are happy with their position on the home team -3. Nothing on the total. If we don’t mention the Over/Under in any of the following games, it’s because sharps haven’t expressed an interest.
MINNESOTA AT ST. LOUIS:
Another quiet game right on the three. St. Louis opened at -3 and stayed there. This is why you can tell New Orleans was such a strong opinion. Neither Green Bay nor St. Louis moved off the key number. New Orleans moved and then locked in higher than the key number. Sharps will fade any public move in this game that could launch the winner to a surprise Wildcard spot if they get some help elsewhere.
WASHINGTON AT CLEVELAND:
There’s been no line all week because of the injury to Robert Griffin III. Washington won’t announce until Sunday whether or not he’s going to play based on most recent reports. Sharps have a number in mind with RGIII and without. They’ll hit the opener if oddsmakers miss the mark. If you want to know who the sharps are betting Sunday morning in this one, follow any moves right after the game goes up. Sharps always act quicker than the public.
JACKSONVILLE AT MIAMI:
Miami opened at -7, and there’s been enough action that we’re now seeing either increased juice on the Dolphins at -7, or line moves to -7.5. Sharps prefer the favorite, and would also like to include Miami in basic strategy teasers because they can move the line down below the 7 and the 3. There are some sharps, though, who think the Jaguars plus anything over the key number of seven offers value. So, there’s a bit of a tug of war going on between the Miami -7 and Jacksonville +7.5 contingents. If the public gets involved, they would likely play Miami at -7 but not -7.5. This is obviously a low priority game in terms of the public’s radar this week…except for squares who always move all favorites down to cheap prices for teasers.
DENVER AT BALTIMORE:
Interesting spot here. Denver opened at -2.5, and stayed there most of the week. When this happens, it typically means sharps like the underdog. Obviously, if they liked the favorite, they would have jumped in beneath the key number for percentage reasons. But, as we’re going to press this morning there are some stores moving up to three. We’re hearing that’s more public-driven than sharp driven…and that sharps will generally be on Baltimore +3 or better if the public backs Peyton Manning. Even if the line solidifies at +2.5 everywhere again, sharps will be on the Ravens in basic strategy two-team teasers. Sharps will be rooting for Baltimore this Sunday in one form or another.
INDIANAPOLIS AT HOUSTON:
Houston opened at -8 despite their poor showing last Monday Night in New England. Sharps who liked Houston acted early, driving the line to -8.5 or -9. Those who prefer the dog are waiting to see what they can get because the public may bet the highly regarded team in a bounce back spot at any price below -10. Sharps would have Houston in two-team teasers at -8 or -8.5, but not at -9 because that moves out of the window. We understand that some stores moved this one up to nine quickly once the sharps committed so that it wouldn’t fall in the teaser window.
CAROLINA AT SAN DIEGO:
Another game sitting solidly on the key number of three. Our discussions suggest sharps generally prefer the dog, which might shade juice in that direction before kickoff. Though, because three’s are so common, sharps would fade any public move off the key number if that happens. In other words, sharps may have a lean toward Carolina at +3, but they would like San Diego -2.5 better simply because three’s are so common in final victory margins. The total has dropped from an opener of 46 down to 45. It’s not a busy week on totals for sharps because weather influences just aren’t happening this year.
SEATTLE VS. BUFFALO (in Toronto):
Seattle opened at -5.5…and it doesn’t take a lot of money to move a game off a tweener number like that. Yet, we’re still sitting at Seattle by 5.5 in this neutral field game as we go to press. Six is a “minor” key number. So, it’s telling that Seattle wasn’t at least driven to the six. We’re hearing that sharps are concerned about peak focus for the Seahawks because a huge game with San Francisco is on deck next week. Sharps would probably take Buffalo at +6 or better if the public moves the line higher Sunday.
DETROIT AT ARIZONA:
Some interest on Detroit at the opener of -6. We’re seeing a few -6.5’s out there. This is tepid interest though because serious backing for the favorite would have yielded an immediate move to at least -6.5, and then probably up to the key number of -7. You’ve seen what happens when sharps really like a favorite. That’s not what’s going on here. We would expect sharp respect to show up for Arizona’s defense if the public moves the line to Detroit by seven before kickoff. Sharps who are taking a flyer on Detroit are in softly at -6. If there’s a “hidden dragon” here, it’s on Arizona getting +7 as a home dog.
PITTSBURGH AT DALLAS:
In most weeks, this would be the biggest public game of the entire weekend. Today it’s overshadowed by a few others. But, the prime placement in the late TV window will still make this a very heavily bet game. Sharps hit Pittsburgh at the opener of +1. We’re now seeing Pittsburgh -1.5 in most stores. That’s not really a big move percentage-wise even with the flipped favorites. Note that Dallas is now in the teaser window, because you can move them up past the 3 and the 7 to +7.5. Sharps will be rooting for Pittsburgh +1 and Dallas +7.5.
KANSAS CITY AT OAKLAND:
Our fourth and final game of the day that’s been frozen on three. Oakland is the short home favorite. Sharps will fade any public move. The late schedule is fairly heavy this week, so the public may not be very active in this game. Had there been just three late games, which has been common lately, even an ugly matchup like this would get heavily bet. Sharps did play Over 43 at the opener. We’re now seeing 44 in most places.
SAN FRANCISCO AT NEW ENGLAND:
Maybe this is a game the sharps will be betting again several weeks down the road. Is this a Super Bowl preview? Right now, Vegas books have the AFC at -3 over the NFC in the Super Bowl…which you can bet even though the teams aren’t known yet. New England only opened at -4.5 here…which is less than you’d except for the AFC favorite playing on its home field. Sharps bet the Pats to -5.5. Given how the public joined the sharps on New England over Houston last week, we may see a rise once again on game day in this line. We understand sharps would come in on San Francisco at +7 because of their strong defense.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-16-12 04:28 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12040
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Packers, Steelers, Patriots Favored In 3 Key Games Sunday
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 12/16/2012 at 1:00 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Packers -3, O/U 42
Television: FOX
Green Bay Packers: The NFC North title is on the line when the Pack (9-4 straight-up, 7-6 against the spread) heads to the Windy City with a one-game lead over the Bears and the opportunity to clinch the division with a victory. Green Bay won its second straight with a 27-20 home decision over Detroit last week to take sole command of the NFC North. The Packers were held under 300 yards on offense but still managed to cover the 5˝-point line for a second consecutive point-spread triumph and fourth cover in five games. Jordy Nelson, the team's second-leading receiver with 46 catches for 658 yards, missed the Lions game with a hamstring injury and is doubtful for Sunday's tilt in Chicago, but linebacker Clay Matthews is expected to return to action (click to check updated NFL injury report). Green Bay won its fifth straight in this series with a 23-10 home victory in Week 2 as 5˝-point chalk, limiting the Bears to 171 yards of offense. The Packers have covered the last four vs. Chicago, a string that started with the 2011 NFC Championship.
Chicago Bears: While the Packers have won two straight, the Bears (8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS) have dropped their last two following a 21-14 defeat last Sunday in Minnesota as 1-point road favorites. The setback was Chicago's fourth in the last five games during a tough stretch on the schedule, each defeat also a loss at the NFL betting window. Quarterback Jay Cutler left the Vikings game with a neck injury after completing 22-of-44 passes and throwing a couple of picks, one of which was returned for a touchdown that proved to be the winning score for Minnesota. Cutler is listed as probable for the matchup with the Packers and is expected to start. The Bears also lost kicker Robbie Gould for the season with a calf injury in the loss to Minnesota, and they have signed Olindo Mare to replace him. Chicago is 7-6 "over" for the season, but this series has gone "under" nine of the last 10 clashes, including the past five played at Soldier Field.
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Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 12/16/2012 at 4:25 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Dallas -1, O/U 44
Television: CBS
Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers (7-6 straight-up, 5-7-1 against the spread) have seen this spread move in their favor even after a bad 34-24 home loss to San Diego last week as 7-point favorites. It was a 34-10 game before two meaningless Pittsburgh touchdowns. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (ribs, shoulder) returned after missing three games and struggled early, although he finished with decent numbers (22-of-42 for 285 yards, 3 TDs, one pick). Pitt was badly outgained in time of possession (37-23 minutes) and needs to get the running game going with Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman. Coach Mike Tomlin’s team is tied for the final AFC playoff spot with Cincy, but he has to be concerned about his defense, which has allowed 24.7 points per game the last three contests with the "over" going 3-0 compared to 15 ppg the prior five with the "under" going 5-0.
Dallas Cowboys: Dallas (7-6 SU, 5-8 ATS) is also in the NFC playoff hunt, but in a much more precarious position than Pittsburgh. Coach Jason Garrett’s guys have won four of five, but they have been living dangerously with fourth-quarter comebacks in the last three victories. Quarterback Tony Romo could be without leading receiver Dez Bryant (1,028 yards), as he has a broken finger but has vowed to play. His absence would be a big blow as the running game is still pretty quiet even with DeMarco Murray (foot) returning two games ago. Dallas is a terrible 0-6 ATS (3-3 SU) at Cowboys Stadium this year. The defense has allowed a whopping 30.8 ppg the last five at home with the "over" going 4-1. The rivalry between the Steelers and Cowboys is famous for the three Super Bowl matchups, but they have played each other just twice since 1997, both Pittsburgh wins and covers.
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San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 12/16/2012 at 8:20 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Pats -4˝, O/U 49
Television: NBC
San Francisco 49ers: Coach Jim Harbaugh and the Niners (9-3-1 straight-up, 8-5 against the spread) face their second consecutive AFC East opponent, and one that should present a greater challenge than the Dolphins a week ago. San Francisco's defense had little problem stifling the Miami attack in the 27-13 win, limiting the Fins to 227 total yards to grab the cover as 11-point home chalk. It was the third win and cover for the 49ers in their last four games, and the final just skipped past the 38˝-point mark for the fourth "over" in five contests. San Fran's stop unit ranks second in the NFL, allowing just 275.5 yards per contest, but will now be up against the league's top-ranked offense in New England (425.7 ypg). One injury concern for the Niners is WR Mario Manningham, who is questionable with a shoulder issue (click to check updated NFL injury report). San Francisco has won six of the last nine vs. the Patriots but covered just one of the last five.
New England Patriots: A 42-14 dismantling of the Texans last week has the Pats (10-3 SU, 8-4-1 ATS) riding a seven-game winning streak into this matchup with the 49ers. New England built a 28-0 lead early in he third quarter as Tom Brady picked apart the Houston defense with four touchdown passes to easily cover the 5˝-point spread. Brady is tied with Redskins rookie Robert Griffin III for the top passer rating in the league at 104.2. A late score by the Texans sent the game past the 50˝ mark, making the "over" 6-1 in the last seven for the Patriots. It was the third time in four games that New England scored at least 42 points, and fifth time this season to boost the team's average to an NFL-best 36.3 ppg, more than a touchdown per game better than Denver's 28.8, which ranks second. The Patriots have won the last three meetings with San Francisco, covering each time. Four of the last five in this series have remained "under" the total.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-16-12 04:32 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12040
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Sunday, December 16
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GREEN BAY (9 - 4) at CHICAGO (8 - 5) - 12/16/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 148-107 ATS (+30.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 53-31 ATS (+18.9 Units) in December games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 55-33 ATS (+18.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 50-28 ATS (+19.2 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 4-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 5-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NY GIANTS (8 - 5) at ATLANTA (11 - 2) - 12/16/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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TAMPA BAY (6 - 7) at NEW ORLEANS (5 - 8) - 12/16/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 23-45 ATS (-26.5 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 20-40 ATS (-24.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in home games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MINNESOTA (7 - 6) at ST LOUIS (6 - 6 - 1) - 12/16/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 92-125 ATS (-45.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 46-68 ATS (-28.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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WASHINGTON (7 - 6) at CLEVELAND (5 - 8) - 12/16/2012, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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JACKSONVILLE (2 - 11) at MIAMI (5 - 8) - 12/16/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 39-59 ATS (-25.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
MIAMI is 47-71 ATS (-31.1 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
MIAMI is 42-63 ATS (-27.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
MIAMI is 24-41 ATS (-21.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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DENVER (10 - 3) at BALTIMORE (9 - 4) - 12/16/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in home games against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
DENVER is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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INDIANAPOLIS (9 - 4) at HOUSTON (11 - 2) - 12/16/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
HOUSTON is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 2-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 2-2 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CAROLINA (4 - 9) at SAN DIEGO (5 - 8) - 12/16/2012, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 46-25 ATS (+18.5 Units) in December games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 64-38 ATS (+22.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 43-22 ATS (+18.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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SEATTLE (8 - 5) vs. BUFFALO (5 - 8) - 12/16/2012, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 52-80 ATS (-36.0 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 21-42 ATS (-25.2 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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DETROIT (4 - 9) at ARIZONA (4 - 9) - 12/16/2012, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 21-40 ATS (-23.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 42-63 ATS (-27.3 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in road games against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
ARIZONA is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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PITTSBURGH (7 - 6) at DALLAS (7 - 6) - 12/16/2012, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 16-28 ATS (-14.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 16-28 ATS (-14.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games this season.
DALLAS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home lined games this season.
DALLAS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in games played on turf this season.
DALLAS is 30-49 ATS (-23.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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KANSAS CITY (2 - 11) at OAKLAND (3 - 10) - 12/16/2012, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 36-67 ATS (-37.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
OAKLAND is 20-40 ATS (-24.0 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 25-47 ATS (-26.7 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
OAKLAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 14-35 ATS (-24.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 24-45 ATS (-25.5 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 4-1 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 4-1 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SAN FRANCISCO (9 - 3 - 1) at NEW ENGLAND (10 - 3) - 12/16/2012, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games in December games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) in December games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 93-67 ATS (+19.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 65-40 ATS (+21.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 49-28 ATS (+18.2 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-16-12 04:48 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12040
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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 15
Packers (9-4) @ Bears (8-5)— Bears are 5-2 at home, and division lead is at stake here, but these are two teams going in opposite directions. Green Bay (-6) beat Bears 23-10 in Week 2 Thursday nighter, picking off four passes, holding Cutler to 11-27/74 passing; it was 7th win in last eight meetings in this ancient rivalry. Pack won three of last four visits here, winning 21-14/27-17 in last two. Pack won seven of last eight games, taking three of last four on road after losing first two away games- they’re 6-5 as favorites this year, 2-2 on road; since ’07, they’re 16-12 as road favorites, 9-4 in divisional games. GB ran ball for 152-140 yards last two weeks, converted 14-27 on 3rd down. Chicago is now 7-16 without Urlacher; they’ve lost four of last five games overall, allowing 176-171 rushing yards last two weeks. NFC North home favorites are 4-3 vs the spread. Last four Green Bay games stayed under the total.
Giants (8-5) @ Falcons (11-2)—Giants are 8-0 when they score 26+ points, 0-5 when they don’t; would expect strong effort for hosts after they got pasted at Carolina last week. Atlanta allowed 30+ points in both losses, but held six of last nine opponents to 20 or less points; they’re 6-0 at home, with five of six wins by 6 or less points. Falcons were held under 80 yards rushing in four of last five games; would expect them to try and run it here more (Giants allowed 207-142 rushing yards last two games). Giants are 3-3 on road, scoring 13-16 points in last two (two offensive TD’s on 20 drives)- they’re +5 in turnovers last three weeks, +16 for season. Big Blue whacked Atlanta 24-2 in LY’s playoffs, fourth straight series win (average score 29-14); Giants won last seven visits to Atlanta (last here in ’04), with last loss here at old Fulton County Stadium in ’78. Four of last five Giant games, three of last four Atlanta games stayed under the total. Underdogs are 13-4 vs spread in NFC East non-divisional road tilts. NFC South home teams are 6-11 against spread out of their division.
Buccaneers (6-7) @ Saints (5-8)—Both teams lost last three games, as playoff hopes slip away; Saints (-1.5) escaped Tampa with 35-28 back in Week 7, when Bucs’ tying TD on last play was waved off because WR stepped OB earlier on his route. Bucs outgained NO 513-458 that day; Freeman was 24-42/415 passing. This season series has split in each of last four years; Bucs are 3-2 in last five visits here. Tampa is 5-2 as underdogs this year, 3-0 on artificial turf; they’ve won three of last four road games SU. Saints allowed 35.3 ppg last three weeks; they’ve won three of last four home games, covered last four games as a favorite (4-3 for year). Brees threw nine picks in last three games, as -6 turnover ratio in those games doomed playoffs chances on Bourbon Street. NO had 30-yard disadvantage in field position last week, which doesn’t count KR they allowed for TD. NFC South home teams are 5-3 vs spread. Three of last four Tampa games stayed under total; four of Saints’ last five games went over.
Vikings (7-6) @ Rams (6-6-1)—St Louis is getting most out of team with limited offense, winning last three games despite scoring three offensive TDs (defense also scored three); Fisher’s spunky bunch is 6-1 vs spread this year in games with spread of 4 or less points. Rams are 4-2 at home, 0-1 as favorites; their home wins are by 3-6-14-3 points. Since 2004, Rams are just 8-18 vs spread as home favorites. Minnesota is 1-5 on road, 1-3 as road dogs; they didn’t scored offensive TD (had two return TD’s) in only road win, 20-13 at Detroit in Week 4. Since 2008, Vikings are 10-15-1 as road dogs. Vikes are 2-3 in five visits here, with coming in ’09; average total in last eight series games, 57.1. NFC West home favorites are 6-4 vs spread. NFC North road dogs are 1-5. Last three Minnesota games stayed under; five of last seven Ram games went over (last two stayed under). Rams are 4-2 SU (5-1 vs spread) when game stayed under, 2-4-1 SU (4-3 vs spread) when it goes over.
Redskins (7-6) @ Browns (5-8)—Health of RGIII (knee) key issue here, since rookie Cousins gets first NFL start if Griffin can’t go. Washington won/covered last four games, beating three division rivals and regional rival Ravens, with Cousins leading tying drive in last minute last week. Skins are 3-3 on road, 4-1 as road underdogs, with five of six games going over total- their road losses are by 3-4-15 points. Redskins averaged 168.2 rushing ypg in last five games, but lot of that was RGIII’s mobility on read option plays- Cousins won’t be doing that. Browns gave up 80-yard run on first play last week but then blanked Chiefs rest of way- they’re 2-0 vs spread as favorites this year (last two games). Cleveland won/covered its last three games, allowing 12.7 ppg (4 TD’s on 36 drives); they won four of last five games, are 5-3 SU since 0-5 start. NFC East road underdogs are 8-3 vs spread. AFC North home favorites are 5-7. Under is 6-0-1 in Browns’ last seven games.
Jaguars (2-10) @ Dolphins (5-8)— Miami lost five of last six games after 4-3 start; only two of its five wins are by more than 4 points. Dolphins are 0-3 as favorites this year; since ’03, they’re 8-33 vs spread as a home favorite. Yes, 8-33. Jax is 5-1 vs spread on road, despite winning only one of six games; their road losses are by 3-3-9-6-16 points; only win was 22-17 at Indy, when they hit 80-yard TD pass in last 2:00. Only non-cover was 34-18 at Buffalo in last road game, two weeks ago. Jags are just 3-26 on 3rd down in last two years; they’ve been outsacked 14-2 last three games. Home team lost last three series games, with average total 30.7; Jaguars won 24-10 in only visit here, in 2006. Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Dolphin games, 1-3 in Jaguars’ last four road games. In fairness, Miami’s last three games were vs Seattle-49ers-Patriots, three playoff teams, but hard to endorse them laying seven points. AFC East favorites are 10-7 vs spread, 6-5 at home.AFC South underdogs are 11-12, 6-7 on the road.
Broncos (10-3) @ Ravens (9-4)—A winning team firing its OC on December 10, after game where Ravens scored 28 points, but defense gave up tying score in last minute? All is not well in Baltimore, where eight of 13 Raven games were decided by 3 or less points. New OC Caldwell (former Colt coach) has never called plays at this level, bad news vs Denver team that won its last eight games (6-2 vs spread) after 2-3 start vs brutal schedule. Broncos are 5-2 SU on road, 3-1 vs spread as road favorites. Ravens are 5-1 at home, losing only to rival Steelers; they’re 1-2 as underdogs this year. Since 2003, they’re 5-7 as home dogs, but this is first time since ’09 they’re in that role. Denver kept four of last five opponents under 75 rushing yards; curious to see how Ravens’ offense is different this week. Five of six Raven home games went over total, as did six of last nine Denver games. You knew Ravens had issues when they split pair of 3-point decisions with Big Ben-less Steelers.
Colts (9-4) @ Texans (11-2)—Storybook Colts won three in row, seven of last eight games; seven of their nine wins are by 4 or less points, or in OT. Three of their four losses are by 20+ points. Indy is just 2-3 as road underdogs this year; that includes wild 35-33 comeback win over Lions (two TDs in last 2:39) two weeks ago. Short week for hosts after Monday night debacle in Foxboro; they crushed the Ravens week after their first loss. Since ’09, Houston is 12-10-1 vs spread in game following a loss. Texans are 4-2 as home favorites, losing to Packers, winning at home by 20-24-30-12-6 points. Indy has three return TDs in last five games, but 18 of their last 21 offensive TDs came on drives of 74+ yards. Houston clinches division with win here, could blow #1 seed in AFC with loss; they’re 3-17 all-time vs Indy, but won last two meetings here, 34-24/34-7. AFC South home teams are 2-7 against spread, 1-4 when favored. Three of last four games for both sides went over the total.
Panthers (4-9) @ Chargers (5-8)—Carolina coach Rivera came to Panthers from San Diego; now both staffs are likely to be unemployed in three weeks. Panthers split last six games after 1-5 start; they won two of last three road games, covered four of last five- their road losses are by 6-2-1-6 points. As bad as they are, Carolina was favorite in three of first six road games- they’re 3-0 as road underdogs. San Diego had unlikely win at Pittsburgh last week; hard to tell how much of a carrot potential 8-8 finish is to players. Chargers lost four of last five home games, scoring one offensive TD on last 22 home drives- they’re 4-3 as favorites this year, 2-2 at home, Since 2010, Bolts are 10-8 as home favorites. Home side lost three of four in seldom-played series; Panthers won both visits here, 26-7/26-24. NFC South road underdogs are 9-3 vs spread. AFC West favorites are 6-5 against spread, 4-3 at home. 7 of last 10 San Diego games, four of last five Carolina games went over the total.
Seahawks (8-5) vs Bills (5-8) (Toronto)—Seattle heads to Canada winners in four of last five games, but they’re 2-5 on road, winning 16-12 (+3) at 4-9 Carolina in Week 5, 23-17 (OT, +3) at skidding Bears two weeks ago. All seven Seahawks road games were decided by 7 or less points. Marshawn Lynch will be fired up to run pigskin against his old team; Seattle ran ball for 176-284 yards last two weeks. Bills held last four opponents under 90 rushing yards- their goal here has to do same with Lynch and make rookie QB Wilson beat them passing, which he hasn’t been that good at on road, averaging 17 ppg on road (21-23 in last two away games). Buffalo lost five of last seven games after hopeful 3-3 start; they blanked Redskins in Toronto LY, snapping 3-game skid north of border. Bills are 2-5 vs spread as underdog this year; they’re 11-16-3 vs spread in last 30 games vs NFC teams. Five of last six Seattle games went over total; only one of Buffalo’s last four games did. Average total in last seven series games is 47.6. NFC West favorites are 8-6; AFC East underdogs are 8-8.
Lions (4-9) @ Cardinals (4-9)—Detroit tied NFL record last week by losing third game in row, when they led by 10+ points in all three games; good news is they led by 10+ points- if they get up 10 on Arizona, how can inept Redbirds come back? Cardinals do not have NFL-level QB on their roster; they were down 38-0 at half last week in Seattle, their ninth loss in row after 4-0 start. Arizona has five TDs on last 78 drives, while allowing five return TDs during same span- they’re 5-4 vs spread as a dog this year, and are 3-3 SU at home. Lions lost five games in row, allowing 32 ppg in last three- they’re 2-5 on road, winning by 3 at Philly, 17 at Jax’ville. Detroit is 2-5 as favorite this year; over last 11 years, they’re 2-6-2 vs spread when favored on foreign soil. Lions lost last five visits to desert; their only win here was in ’93. Seems like long time ago (Week 2) Arizona beat the Patriots in Foxboro. NFC North favorites are 10-13 vs spread, 4-3 on road. NFC West underdogs are 13-6 vs spread, 4-1 at home. If you wager on this game, report directly to your nearest GA meeting.
Steelers (7-6) @ Cowboys (7-6)—Dallas is 2-6 vs spread when favored this year, 0-5 at home; since start of 2010, they’re 3-16 vs spread as a home favorite, but they’ve won three of last four games overall, despite being outscored 71-23 in first half of those games. Dallas scored average of 23.4 ppg, just in second half of last five games. Free-falling Steelers (lost three of last four games) allowed Chargers to convert 12-22 on 3rd down last week in ugly 34-24 home loss (San Diego had converted 10 of previous 43 3rd downs coming in). Pittsburgh ran ball for 71.3 ypg last three weeks; even Big Ben’s return didn’t help. Underdogs covered last six Steeler games; Pitt is 3-4 SU on road, 2-1 as road dogs, losing away games by 12-3-3-6 points. Teams split 30 series games, but Steelers won last two 24-20/20-13, and won two of three Super Bowl meetings, but they’ve lost seven of last nine visits here. Four of last five Dallas home games went over the total. NFC East home favorites are 5-8 vs spread; AFC North underdogs are 6-8 against the spread, 3-6 on foreign soil.
Chiefs (2-11) @ Raiders (3-10)—Never thought I’d see day where these two teams are among NFL’s worst. Visitors won 10 of last 11 series games; Chiefs won eight of last nine visits here, but lost nine of last 10 games overall, losing last four away games by 28-18-3-23 points. KC is 2-4 as a road underdog this year, after being 21-14-1 from 2007-11. Oakland lost last six (0-6 vs spread) games, scoring 13.3 ppg in last three games; they’re 0-3 as favorites this year; since 2003, they’re 8-22 vs spread when favored at home. Raiders’ wins this year are by 3-10-3 points, so difficult to lay FG. Chiefs’ offense is horrific, scoring 13 or less points in five of last six games; they’ve scored six TDs on last 61 drives. Last three Oakland games, four of Chiefs’ last five games stayed under the total. Road teams covered six of nine AFC West divisional games; home favorites are 2-3. Much like the Detroit-Arizona game, not much to choose from here.
49ers (9-3-1) @ Patriots (10-3)—New England off impressive thrashing of Texans Monday night; they have to keep going, since Broncos are on their tail for #2 seed in AFC, which brings first-round bye in playoffs. Patriots won last seven games, covered three of last four; they’re 3-3 as home favorites, winning last five games in Foxboro by 10-3-6-35-28 points. Pats scored 11 TDs on last 21 drives at home, against teams with combined record of 20-6. 49ers are 4-2 on road, with both losses in domes (Vikings/Rams); they scored 13-3-13 points in three losses, 24 in their tie. Patriots held last three opponents under 20 points, but they’re hardly dominant defensive team, instead relying on takeaways (+24 turnover margin). 49ers are 4-1-1 vs spread last six times they were an underdog. Brady is from northern California, so this game figures to be special for him. 10 of last 11 Patriot games, four of last five Niner games went over the total. AFC East favorites are 10-7 vs spread, 6-5 at home. NFC West road dogs are 9-5.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-16-12 04:50 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12040
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NFL
Short Sheet
Week 15
Sunday, December 16, 2012
Green Bay at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Green Bay: 9-1 ATS vs. division opponents
Chicago: 8-1 Over at home off a division game
NY Giants at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
NY Giants: 11-3 ATS off a home win
Atlanta: 30-8 Over off a division road loss
Tampa Bay at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 2-9 ATS off BB losses
New Orleans: 9-2 ATS at home vs. conference opponents
Minnesota at St. Louis, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 1-9 ATS off a home win
St. Louis: 7-0 Under off a SU win
Washington at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Washington: 6-0 ATS off a home game
Cleveland: 9-0 Under in December
Jacksonville at Miami, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 15-5 Over off a home game
Miami: 6-0 ATS off a non-conference game
Denver at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
Denver: 7-1 ATS as a favorite
Baltimore: 8-0 Over off a loss by 6 points or less
Indianapolis at Houston, 1:00 ET
Indianapolis: 15-4 Over as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points
Houston: 17-6 ATS vs. conference opponents
Carolina at San Diego, 4:05 ET
Carolina: 13-4 Over as an underdog
San Diego: 0-7 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
Seattle at Buffalo, 4:05 ET
Seattle: 1-14 ATS off a division win by 21+ points
Buffalo: 13-5 Over as an underdog
Detroit at Arizona, 4:05 ET
Detroit: 5-18 ATS as a road favorite
Arizona: 26-13 ATS at home off 3+ losses
Pittsburgh at Dallas, 4:25 ET
Pittsburgh: 11-2 ATS off a SU loss
Dallas: 0-6 ATS off a road win
Kansas City at Oakland, 4:25 ET
Kansas City: 17-6 ATS away off a road loss
Oakland: 6-21 ATS off 3+ games scoring 17 points or less
(TC) San Francisco at New England, 8:30 ET NBC
San Francisco: 0-6 ATS away in December
New England: 7-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
Monday, December 17, 2012
(TC) NY Jets at Tennessee, 8:40 ET ESPN
NY Jets: 12-2 Over off an Under
Tennessee: 2-9 ATS as a favorite
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-16-12 04:54 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12040
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Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves
The weather may be getting colder but action at the sportsbook is heating up.
Oddsmakers have been moving NFL Week 15 lines all over the board as money pours in. We talk with veteran Las Vegas oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro, of William Hill Nevada, about the biggest adjustments heading into the weekend:
New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons – Open: Pick, Move: -1.5
The early money has jumped on the Falcons, coming off an upset loss to the Panthers last week. However, Vaccaro expects the public to side with the Giants before kickoff Sunday.
“I think we’ll still end up rooting for Atlanta in the end,” Vaccaro told Covers. “The general public has been going against Atlanta the last few weeks.”
Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams – Open: -3, Move: -1
The Rams have been a solid home bet this season but bettors have moved them from field-goal faves to -1 as of Thursday afternoon, with the majority of action on Minnesota and red-hot RB Adrian Peterson.
“The early money is more a bet on Peterson than on the Minnesota Vikings,” says Vaccaro.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Buffalo Bills – Open: +4, Move: +5.5
This spread has moved up since post, with money on the Seahawks. Vaccaro says having this game inside in Toronto and not in the December cold of Ralph Wilson Stadium is a big reason why Buffalo is becoming an even bigger underdog.
“This is worth something – I’m not sure how much,” he says of the venue difference. “The people in Buffalo don’t like it, having to blow a home game and you’re not going to get them packing up and heading to Canada to watch a football game.”
Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys – Open: Pick, Move: +1.5
The early bets came in on Pittsburgh, pushing this spread to Steelers -1.5, but Vaccaro expects that action to even out by Sunday, especially with the public following the Cowboys have.
“Both teams are 7-6 and you can basically color whichever team loses out of the playoff picture,” says Vaccaro. “If I’m staring at this one on Sunday before kickoff, I expect the action to be split right down the middle.”
San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots – Open: -3, Move: -6
The Patriots’ win over Houston Monday is worth about three points to the spread, moving the opening number of -3 to -6 as of Thursday. Vaccaro says it’s been nothing but New England money this week.
“New England is one of those few teams that when they drub somebody, it’s hard for the public not to bet on them,” he says. “Early last week, we took Houston money and went as low as -3 for a while before we shot up to -6. That’s the power of the betting public.”
As for the total, this number has shrunk since opening at 48 points. Early money on the under had dropped the total to 46.5. Sunday night’s forecast is calling for a 53 percent chance of rain and temperatures in the low 30s.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-16-12 04:56 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12040
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NFL poolies betting cheat sheet: Week 15
Check out our NFL poolies' cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs in condensed form. Quick-hitting betting notes on all of Week 15's action.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (3, 43)
The Packers can clinch their second consecutive NFC North title with a win over the Bears. Green Bay rallied from an early two-touchdown deficit to post a 27-20 triumph over Detroit last weekend and pick up its seventh win in its last eight games. Linebacker Clay Matthews (hamstring) is in line to return after a four-week absence, but veteran S Charles Woodson (broken collarbone) will spend another game on the sidelines. Chicago suffered its fourth loss in five games with a 21-14 setback to Minnesota last Sunday. Jay Cutler suffered a neck injury versus the Vikings, but is expected to play and attempt to end the Bears' five-game losing skid to the Packers. These teams have played under the total in nine of the last 10 meetings.
New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons (-1, 51)
The Falcons’ running game is ranked 28th in the NFL, averaging 86.9 yards per game - 68.4 over the past five contests. Michael Turner and Jacquizz Rodgers combined for a season-low 35 yards on 11 attempts in last week's 30-20 loss at Carolina. The Giants boast a defense that is second in the league in forcing turnovers (34) and interceptions (20). New York steamrolled the Saints 52-27 last week and has won four straight over Atlanta. The Giants are the only NFC team Matt Ryan has yet to beat. The under is 4-0 in Atlanta's last four games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5, 53)
The Buccaneers will look to snap a three-game losing skid and keep their faint postseason aspirations alive when they visit the New Orleans Saints. Tampa Bay saw an 11-point fourth-quarter lead evaporate in short order before dropping a 23-21 decision to reeling Philadelphia last week. Tampa Bay also squandered a double-digit lead en route to dropping a 35-28 decision to New Orleans on Oct. 21. Drew Brees tossed four touchdowns in that contest, but has thrown seven interceptions over the last two games. New Orleans' defense is yielding a league-worst 436.9 yards per game - nearly 43 yards more than 31st-ranked Jacksonville. The Bucs are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and have played over the total in their last four road contests.
Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams (-1, 39)
The Vikings ended a two-game skid and breathed life into their playoff hopes with a 21-14 home win over Chicago last Sunday. Running back Adrian Peterson carried the ball a career-high 31 times for 154 yards in the win and is averaging more yards per rushing attempt (6.04) than QB Christian Ponder averages per pass attempt (5.99). The Rams have remained in playoff contention by winning three in a row. St. Louis has not allowed an opposing running back to gain more than 65 yards in four straight games. They held Buffalo's sixth-ranked rushing attack to 61 yards - 80 below its season average - in a 15-12 road win last Sunday. The Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against opponents with winning records.
Washington Redskins at Cleveland Browns (1, 43.5)
Robert Griffin III and his sprained lateral collateral ligament are getting all of the attention this week. The rookie QB has practiced on a limited basis and will likely be a game-time decision. The Browns’ current three-game winning streak is their longest since 2009. Cleveland has held its last three opponents to an average of 12.7 points while forcing 11 turnovers. The Browns are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins (-7, 37.5)
The Jaguars try to avoid losing five in row on the road for the first time in nine seasons against a Dolphins team that's dropped five of six overall. Jacksonville RB Maurice Jones-Drew (foot) is likely to miss his eighth straight game, but WR Cecil Shorts (concussion) could return Sunday. Jacksonville ranks 31st in total offense and defense, averaging 282.9 yards per game and allowing 394.5. The Dolphins have played under the total in their last six games against AFC foes.
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (3, 48)
The Ravens have lost back-to-back games in the regular season for the first time since the 2009 season. They went 54 straight games without suffering a two-game losing streak and they could receive a huge boost at the linebacker position on Sunday. Terrell Suggs (bicep) may be back this week after sitting out against Washington and there's a chance Ray Lewis (triceps) could play for the first time since Week 6. Broncos QB Peyton Manning looks to help guide Denver to its ninth straight victory overall while winning his ninth consecutive start against the Ravens. The Broncos have dropped each of their last five trips to Baltimore, including the last two by a combined 37 points. Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-9.5, 48)
The Texans look to rebound from a blowout loss to the Patriots and prevent the surging Colts from securing a playoff berth as these teams meet in Houston for the first of two meetings over the final three weeks. The Texans offense has stumbled in the last two games, being held under 340 total yards in both while going 8 of 31 on third downs. Indianapolis has won three straight and seven of eight, moving into position to join the 2008 Miami Dolphins as the only teams to lose at least 14 games one season and qualify for the playoffs the following year. The Colts are 7-1 ATS in their last eight overall.
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (6, 43.5)
Arizona Cardinals quarterbacks have not thrown a touchdown pass in the last four games, but they have tossed three interceptions that have been returned for touchdowns in that span. Coach Ken Whisenhunt has named Ryan Lindley his starter this week after John Skelton failed to lead the offense to a single point in last week’s blowout loss to the Seahawks. Lions WR Calvin Johnson has 120 receptions for 2,106 yards in his last 16 games. The 2,106 receiving yards are the most over any 16-game stretch since 1960 and Johnson is currently 302 yards short of Jerry Rice's single-season record of 1,848 receiving yards set in 1995. The Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.
Carolina Panthers at San Diego Chargers (-3, 44.5)
The Chargers lost four straight before last Sunday's 34-24 victory in Pittsburgh, their first win against a team with a winning record. San Diego finally found a way to protect QB Philip Rivers, who was only sacked once in the victory and matched a season high with three TD passes. Rivers has been sacked 37 times this year – second most in the league. Carolina's 30-20 victory last week over Atlanta was by far the highlight of its season. The Panthers racked up a season-high 475 yards on the Falcons and have played over the total in their last five games.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Buffalo Bills (5.5, 43.5)
Seattle set a franchise record for points and matched its second-highest takeaway total with eight in its rout of Arizona last week. The Seahawks are one win away from clinching their first winning season since 2007 and will have CB Richard Sherman in the lineup for another week, after his appeal for his four-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs was delayed. The Bills appear destined to miss the playoffs for the 13th consecutive season after falling 15-12 to the Rams in Week 14. Buffalo doesn’t have a true home advantage in this one, as the game is being played at the domed Rogers Centre in Toronto. These teams have played over the total in their last seven meetings.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys (1, 44)
The Cowboys and Steelers will try to boost their postseason odds when they meet in Dallas. The Cowboys suffered a big blow when WR Dez Bryant fractured his left index finger in last week’s win over the Bengals. However, Bryant intends to delay surgery and suit up. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger looked a little rusty in his return from injury last week, but it’s the depleted secondary that will concern coach Mike Tomlin this week. Ike Taylor will miss his second consecutive game due to a broken right ankle, while Keenan Lewis and Cortez Allen are questionable with hip flexor ailments. The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS at home this season.
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (-3, 44)
Kansas City looks for its ninth victory in its last 10 visits to Oakland without top receiver Dwayne Bowe (ribs) when these AFC West rivals meet. Oakland, which has lost six straight since beating the Chiefs on Oct. 28, hopes to have both RB Darren McFadden (ankle) and DE Richard Seymour (hamstring) back in the lineup. The Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.
San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots (-5, 46)
The New England Patriots have scored more points in their last five games (210) than the Arizona Cardinals (186) and Kansas City Chiefs (195) have scored all season. Furthermore, The Patriots have put up 284 points in their last seven contests. That is more than 13 NFL teams have scored in the entire season. Niners LB Aldon Smith has as many sacks in the last six games (14) as the Jacksonville Jaguars have all season. Smith, who has 19.5 sacks on the season, is three away from tying Michael Strahan's record mark of 22.5 set in 2001. San Francisco has played over the total in four of its last five games overall.
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (-1, 41)
The Jets have posted ugly back-to-back wins, totaling 559 yards of offense over the last two games. Mark Sanchez continues to struggle, passing for just 208 yards with three interceptions during the win streak. The Titans, who have dropped three straight, were dealt a blow last Sunday when TE Jared Cook was lost for the year with a torn right rotator cuff. Cook is second on the team in receptions (44) and third in yards (523). The Jets are 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-16-12 04:57 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12040
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Packers at Bears: What bettors need to know
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (1, 43)
The Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears are trending in opposite directions. Winners of seven of their last eight games, the Packers can clinch their second consecutive NFC North title at the expense of their longtime rival on Sunday. Green Bay continued its rapid ascent after rallying from an early two-touchdown deficit to post a 27-20 triumph over Detroit last weekend.
Chicago also faced off against a division foe last week but suffered its fourth loss in five games with a 21-14 setback to Minnesota. Jay Cutler suffered a neck injury versus the Vikings, but he is expected to play and attempt to end the Bears' five-game losing skid to the Packers. He'll need to do better than his four-interception performance in a 23-10 loss to Green Bay on Sept. 13.
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.
LINE: Packers -1, O/U 43
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-40s with a 30 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the SW at 13 mph.
ABOUT THE PACKERS (9-4): Beware of the vaunted Green Bay ... running game? The trio of Alex Green (career-high 69 yards), practice squad call-up DuJuan Harris (31 yards, touchdown) and veteran Ryan Grant made their presence felt last week. Aaron Rodgers also got in on the fun with a 27-yard touchdown run, but isn't too bad of a passer, either. In addition, Rodgers may see the return of wide receiver Jordy Nelson, who has been hobbled by a hamstring injury.
ABOUT THE BEARS (8-5): Cutler has connected with trusted target Brandon Marshall - who emphasized his dislike for the Bears on Wednesday - 101 times for 1,342 yards this season, but the pair only hooked up twice for 24 yards in the previous encounter versus the Packers. Getting Matt Forte untracked could go along way for both the running and passing games. Forte, who mustered just 31 yards vs. Green Bay in the previous encounter, hasn't scored a rushing TD since Nov. 4.
TRENDS:
* Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. NFC opponents.
* Under is 4-0 in Packers’ last four games overall.
* Under is 5-0 in Bears’ last five vs. NFC North foes.
* Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. After recording 28 turnovers en route to posting a 7-1 mark, Chicago has forced just seven takeaways in its past five contests.
2. Green Bay OLB Clay Matthews (hamstring) is in line to return after a four-week absence, but veteran S Charles Woodson (broken collarbone) will spend another game on the sideline.
3. The Bears will turn to veteran K Olindo Mare after Robbie Gould suffered a season-ending calf injury prior to last week's game versus Minnesota.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-16-12 05:02 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12040
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Steelers at Cowboys: What bettors need to know
Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys (1, 44)
After a sluggish start, wide receiver Dez Bryant has made his presence felt as the Dallas Cowboys have risen in the standings. While dealing with a fractured left index finger, Bryant's presence itself is now in question heading into Sunday's game against the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers. Bryant, who has expressed his desire to play, suffered the injury as Dallas recorded its fourth win in five contests with a 20-19 triumph over Cincinnati last week.
Pittsburgh knows a thing or two about injuries, although it welcomed back Ben Roethlisberger (shoulder, rib) in last week's 34-24 home loss to San Diego. Roethlisberger struggled before throwing three touchdown passes - albeit with the game no longer in doubt and the Steelers skidding to their third loss in four contests. Pittsburgh is clinging to the final wild-card berth in the AFC, while Dallas sits one game behind NFC East-leading New York.
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.
LINE: Steelers -1, O/U 44
ABOUT THE STEELERS (7-6): Although Pittsburgh hosts Cincinnati next week in a game with AFC North and wild card implications, the Steelers need to keep their focus on the task at hand. Mike Tomlin's rushing carousel has careened off its tracks as Jonathan Dwyer struggled to move the ball last week while Rashard Mendenhall's displeasure with his inactivity has reportedly led to a one-game suspension.
ABOUT THE COWBOYS (7-6): While Dallas has been faring well on the field, the team is still dealing with the death of practice squad linebacker Jerry Brown. Many of the Cowboys attended the memorial - including Josh Brent, who was released from jail on intoxication manslaughter charges stemming from the one-car accident that killed Brown. Back on the field, Tony Romo has thrown seven touchdowns in his last three games.
TRENDS:
* Cowboys are 0-6 ATS at home this season.
* Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games on field turf.
* Under is 6-1 in Steelers’ last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 4-1 in Cowboys’ last five home games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Pittsburgh will feature its fifth different offensive line in as many games on Sunday. First-round pick G David DeCastro will make his first career start versus Dallas.
2. Bryant, who has seven touchdowns in his last five contests, has scored all nine of his TDs this season in the second half of games.
3. The Steelers have played in the new Cowboys Stadium - although Dallas was not their opponent. Pittsburgh lost to Green Bay in Super Bowl XV.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-16-12 05:04 AM |
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