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CNOTES
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Where the action is: Sharps take UL early in Sugar Bowl
Louisville Cardinals vs. Florida Gators (-13, 45.5)
After a busy holiday season, filled with multiple bowl matchups each day, bettors get a standalone BCS bowl game on Jan. 2 – the AllState Sugar Bowl between the Louisville Cardinals and the Florida Gators.
Oddsmakers opened the Gators as 15-point favorites at some books but sharps quickly jumped on the Big East’s representative in the BCS.
“The only sharp money seen on this side came in at Louisville +14,” an oddsmaker at BetDSI.com told Covers. "The rest of the betting action on the spread has been the public backing Florida at -13.”
According to BetDSI.com, the action on the Gators is at more than a 3-to-1 ticket count and a 2-to-1 ratio in terms of total handle.
As for the total, books opened with the number at 45.5 and it has remained steady for the most part. Some online markets have moved to 46 and the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas was dealing 46 before being bet back down to 45.5.
NCAAF
Wednesday, January 2
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Sugar Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Louisville Cardinals vs. Florida Gators (-14, 45.5)
WHEN: 8:30 PM ET, Wednesday, January 2, 2013
WHERE: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
ALLSTATE SUGAR BOWL GAME STORYLINES
1. No. 4 Florida looks to cap a near-perfect season with its fifth consecutive bowl victory as it faces No. 18 Louisville in the Sugar Bowl. This will be the seventh time the Gators have played in a BCS bowl - the highest number of BCS appearances among SEC teams and tied for third-best in the nation. With a win, Florida's all-time BCS bowl win total would increase to five, giving it the highest total in the history of the BCS.
2. The Cardinals edged out Rutgers in the Big East title game on a late field goal by freshman John Wallace to secure their first appearance in the Sugar Bowl and the second BCS appearance in school history. With an upset over Florida, Louisville will reach 11 wins for the first time since 2006 and will move to 2-0 all-time in BCS bowls.
3. Louisville quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and Florida running back Mike Gillislee figure to be focal points in a matchup that features a stifling Gator defense on one side and its Cardinal counterpart that struggled against the run. Bridgewater led the Big East with a 161.6 passer rating that ranked seventh in the nation, tossing for 3,452 yards and 25 touchdowns. Florida ranked fifth in the nation in total defense and limited opponents to an average of just over 186 yards per game through the air. Gillislee averaged 92 yards on the ground and had 10 touchdowns for Florida, which ranked third in the SEC in rushing offense, while only Temple (199.4 yards per game) allowed a higher rushing average than Louisville (151.1) among Big East schools.
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE: Florida opened at -15 and was bet up to -15.5 before coming down as low as -13.5. The total has stayed steady at 45.5.
CONSENSUS: 63 percent of Covers Consensus picks are on Florida while 63 percent are on the over.
TRENDS:
* Cardinals are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 non-conference games.
* Gators are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 non-conference games.
* Over is 4-1 in Cardinals last five bowl games.
* Over is 5-2 in Gators last seven bowl games.
ABOUT LOUISVILLE (10-2, 5-2 Big East, 5-7 ATS): The Cardinals were 10-game winners for the fifth time in school history and on each of the previous four occasions, they have gone on to win their bowl game. They stand a chance against the Gators, if for no other reason than the fact that Florida had legitimate scares against the likes of Bowling Green, Missouri and Louisiana-Lafayette this season. The Cardinals led the Big East, averaging 31 points per game but obviously face a stiff test against the Gators' defense. Running back Jeremy Wright, who took over when Senorise Perry was lost for the season, managed only 89 yards in Louisville's final three games. The Cardinals will hope for a turnaround, and establishing a semblance of a run game would go along way toward opening things up for Bridgewater under center.
ABOUT FLORIDA (11-1, 7-1 SEC, 7-5 ATS): The Gators played six games this season decided by one score and prevailed in all but one. In their win over Florida State, the defense was the difference, forcing a season-high five turnovers in a 37-26 final. Florida led the SEC in turnover margin, tied with Mississippi State at plus-17, ranking fifth in the nation. If the Gators force trouble for Louisville, the odds are decidedly in their favor. Florida, which committed only 12 turnovers this season, was plus-20 in 11 wins and minus-3 in a 17-9 loss to Georgia. In a tight game, the Gators have a big weapon in kicker Caleb Sturgis, whose 23 field goals ranked fourth among FBS kickers.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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01-02-13 04:12 AM |
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CNOTES
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Wednesday, January 2
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LOUISVILLE (10 - 2) vs. FLORIDA (11 - 1) - 1/2/2013, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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Wednesday, January 2
8:30 PM
LOUISVILLE vs. FLORIDA
Louisville is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
Louisville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Florida is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Florida is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
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Sugar Bowl: Louisville Cardinals vs. Florida Gators – Open: -15.5, Move: -13
Some books opened Florida as a monster favorite but drew early UL money and have since come down to -13. Kessler opened at -13 and has taken nothing but Gators bets but could see the line shrink even more.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if it doesn’t go higher,” he says. “I think the wise guys will take back on Louisville.”
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WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 2
Game 259-260: Louisville vs. Florida (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 83.126; Florida 104.748
Dunkel Line: Florida by 21 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Florida by 13; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-13); Under
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Louisville - Led the nation in red-zone efficiency offense (scored on 48 of 50 drives).
Florida - Worst passing offense of all bowl teams that don't run a triple-option style offense (114th in the nation, 143.9 yards per game).
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Wednesday, January 2, 2013
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Louisville vs. Florida, 8:30 ET ESPN
Louisville: 8-1 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3
Florida: 22-10 Over off a double digit road win
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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01-02-13 04:18 AM |
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CNOTES
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Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12009
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Thursday, January 3
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KANSAS ST (11 - 1) vs. OREGON (11 - 1) - 1/3/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OREGON is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
OREGON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
OREGON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
KANSAS ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
KANSAS ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS ST is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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Thursday, January 3
8:30 PM
KANSAS STATE vs. OREGON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas State's last 5 games
Kansas State is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oregon's last 5 games
Oregon is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games
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THURSDAY, JANUARY 3
Game 261-262: Oregon vs. Kansas State (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 120.231; Kansas State 103.251
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 17; 71
Vegas Line: Oregon by 9; 75 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-9); Under
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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Bowl Season
Thursday, January 3
Fiesta Bowl (Phoenix)
73-year old Snyder covered 11 of last 13 games as underdog; K-State has eight senior starters on defense, none on offensive line. Biggest question in this game is whether talk about Chip Kelly going to NFL will distract Oregon, which is 3-2 in last five bowls, scoring 42-45-56 points in wins, 17-19 in losses (Kelly 1-2 in bowls). Oregon scored 42+ points in all its wins, 14 in OT loss to Stanford; they're 6-1 vs spread last seven games as a favorite. K-State's only loss was as a 12-point favorite at Baylor (52-24); they won SU both times they were underdog this year, but lost last four bowls, allowing 33.8 ppg. Wildcats lost 35-28 to Ohio State in this game in '03. K-State's Klein is senior QB who was banged up late in year but had time to recover; Ducks' QB Mariota is redshirt freshman. Underdogs covered five of last six Fiesta Bowls, where domed stadium guarantees fast track-- 68-79 points were scored here last two years. Under is 17-13 in bowls, faves are 13-16 against spread.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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01-04-13 12:34 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12009
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NCAAF
Thursday, January 3
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Fiesta Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Oregon Ducks vs. Kansas State Wildcats (+8, 75.5)
WHEN: 8:30 PM ET, Thursday, January 3, 2013
WHERE: University of Phoenix Stadium, Phoenix, Arizona
FIESTA BOWL STORYLINES
1. Oregon and Kansas State could have been meeting in the BCS title game if not for both teams losing on Nov. 17. Instead, they form perhaps the top non-championship game pairing of the bowl season. The No. 3 Ducks had their title hopes derailed by Stanford while the No. 6 Wildcats were routed by Baylor.
2. Offensive theatrics should be plentiful with both teams having powerful attacks. Oregon ranks second in scoring at 50.8 points and fourth in total offense at 550.1 yards while featuring star runner Kenjon Barner (1,624 rushing yards). Kansas State averages 40.7 points and 411.2 yards with quarterback Collin Klein – third in Heisman Trophy balloting – leading the way.
3. Big plays on defense often tip the scales during the bowl season and both teams are among the best in the nation in takeaways. Oregon leads the nation with 39 and Kansas State has forced 31 turnovers. The Ducks have returned four interceptions for touchdown. The Wildcats have only committed 10 miscues in 12 games.
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE: Oregon opened at -8 and was bet up as high as -9.5 but money on KSU dropped the spread back to -8. The total moved from 77 to 75.5.
CONSENSUS: 51 percent of Covers Consensus picks are on Oregon while 68 percent are on the over.
TRENDS:
* Ducks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.
* Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four bowl games.
* Under is 5-2 in Ducks' last seven bowl games.
* Over is 5-2 in Wildcats' last seven non-conference games.
ABOUT KANSAS STATE (11-1, 8-1 Big 12, 7-5 ATS): The Wildcats have lost four consecutive bowl games dating back to the 2002 Holiday Bowl during coach Bill Snyder’s first stint at the school. Klein is a multipurpose threat with 2,490 yards and 15 passing touchdowns to go with 890 yards and 22 scores on the ground. Junior John Hubert has rushed for 15 touchdowns to go with a team-leading 892 rushing yards, while senior wideout Chris Harper has a team-best 50 receptions for 786 yards. Harper began his career as a quarterback at Oregon before transferring. Kansas State allows only 99.3 rushing yards per game and boasts big-time talent in senior middle linebacker Arthur Brown – the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year – junior free safety Ty Zimmerman (five interceptions) and senior defensive end Meshak Williams (8.5 sacks). Senior cornerback Allen Chapman and senior cornerback Nigel Malone also have five interceptions apiece.
ABOUT OREGON (11-1, 8-1 Pac-12, 9-2-1 ATS): The Ducks could be playing their final game under coach Chip Kelly as rumors swirl that he is headed to the NFL. Redshirt freshman quarterback Marcus Mariota has thrived under Kelly’s progressive system, completing 69.9 percent of his passes for 2,511 yards and 30 touchdowns. Sophomore running back De’Anthony Thomas had 16 total touchdowns, including 11 on the ground while complementing Barner. Senior defensive end Dion Jordan is the leader of the defense with 10.5 tackles for losses. Junior defensive end Taylor Hart has a team-best eight sacks while sophomore cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu has blossomed as a huge playmaker. Ekpre-Olomu is tied for the team lead with sophomore middle linebacker Kiko Alonso for most interceptions (four) and also has forced six fumbles.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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01-04-13 12:36 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12009
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Where the action is: Sharps vs. Public in Fiesta Bowl betting
Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State Wildcats vs. Oregon Ducks (-8, 75.5)
Two of the most explosive offensive programs in the country meet in the Fiesta Bowl, with oddsmakers opening the Oregon Ducks as 8-point favorites for this Jan. 3 BCS bowl game.
Early money came in on the Ducks, moving the spread as high as -9.5 at some online markets. However, sharp money pounced on the discount KSU line and brought the spread back to its original post. According to oddsmakers at BetDSI.com, the Fiesta Bowl is a battle between public and wise guy money.
“There is a public-versus-sharp betting contrast here with sharp action backing K-State at the +9 spread and the public all over Oregon at any value,” BetDSI.com told Covers. “The current bet count is 2-to-1 in favor of Oregon, but the money has decent balance since the spread settled in around Oregon -8.”
The total for Thursday’s game is one of the largest numbers this bowl season. The over/under opened as high as 77 but has since dropped to as low as 75 online. Las Vegas books are dealing between 76 and 75.5 points.
Four bowls have closed with totals of 70 or more points this postseason, splitting the over/under at 2-2. Oregon and Kansas State posted twin 7-4 over/under records this season.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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01-04-13 12:38 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12009
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NCAAF
Friday, January 4
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Cotton Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Texas A&M Aggies vs. Oklahoma Sooners (+3, 73.5)
WHEN: 8:00 PM ET, Friday, January 4, 2013
WHERE: Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, Texas
AT&T COTTON BOWL GAME STORYLINES
1. Former Big 12 rivals Oklahoma and Texas A&M are set to square off in the Cotton Bowl, which features the added attraction of Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel. The freshman quarterback accounted for 4,600 yards and 43 touchdowns and led the Aggies to a 10-2 record in their first season in the SEC.
2. Oklahoma has dominated the series against Texas A&M in recent years, with the Sooners going 11-2 under coach Bob Stoops, including wins in eight of the last nine meetings.
3. Texas A&M’s first 10-win season since 1998 was highlighted by a 29-24 victory over then-No. 1 Alabama on No. 10, while the Sooners’ two losses came by a combined eight points against opponents with a combined 21-3 record.
TV: 8 p.m. ET, FOX.
LINE: Texas A&M opened as a 3-point favorite and was bet up to as high as -4.5 before money on OU brought the spread back to -3. The total has moved from 71.5 to 73.5.
CONSENSUS: 59 percent of Covers Consensus picks are on Texas A&M while 61 percent are on the over.
TRENDS:
* Home team is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings. Aggies are the Texas team in this matchup at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
ABOUT TEXAS A&M (10-2, 6-2 SEC, 7-5 ATS): This figures to be a high-scoring contest with the Aggies ranked third in the country in scoring at 44.8 points per game and Oklahoma tied for 12th at 40.2 points. Both teams are riding five-game winning streaks, with the Aggies’ only losses coming to Florida and LSU. Manziel is a true duel threat for the Aggies, who are 7-0 when he rushes for more than 100 yards. Texas A&M ranks 13th in the country in rushing offense at 235.1 yards per game, and the Aggies will look to establish their ground game behind offensive tackle Luke Joeckel, who received the Outland Award as the nation’s top interior lineman. Texas A&M allowed only 22.5 points per game, led by defensive end Damontre Moore's 12.5 sacks. The Aggies’ return game has been solid, but kicker Taylor Bertolet only made 13 of his 22 field goal attempts.
ABOUT OKLAHOMA (10-2, 8-1 Big 12, 6-6 ATS): Senior quarterback Landry Jones, who ranks fifth in the nation with 332.4 passing yards per game, is 3-0 in bowl games heading into his 50th and final career start. The Sooners scored 125 points in their last three games, and their offensive line allowed only six sacks in nine Big 12 contests. Wide receiver Kenny Stills has a team-high 11 touchdown receptions and junior Damien Williams led the ground attack with 902 yards rushing and 12 touchdowns. The Sooners boast the Big 12’s top pass defense, and safety Tony Jefferson led the team with 113 tackles. Oklahoma has forced 14 turnovers in the last nine games, with 11 coming off interceptions. The Sooners could be without wide receiver/punt returner Jalen Saunders, whose status is in doubt after he was arrested for marijuana possession on Dec. 2.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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01-05-13 12:43 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12009
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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Bowl Season
Saturday, January 5
Compass Bowl (Birmingham, AL)
Pitt is playing in this game for third year in row, which usually raises a red flag towards player apathy, but Panthers breathed sigh of relief when coach Chryst didn't bolt to Wisconsin; that would've been nightmare for Pitt program that is headed to ACC next year. Chryst is Pitt's 4th coach in last three years; they're 2-3 in last five bowls, scoring just 11.8 ppg. Ole Miss is in first bowl since '09; they figure to have crowd edge, since new coach Freeze has raised hopes in Oxford. Rebels won three of last four bowls, but last three were all Cotton Bowls- their last minor bowl was '02 win over Nebraska in Shreveport. Ole Miss is 8-3 vs spread this year, 4-1 as a favorite; all six teams that beat them are better than Pitt, whose QB Sunseri is son of former Alabama assistant coach who was at Tennessee this year, but Vols didn't play Ole Miss. Underdogs are 16-15 vs spread in bowls this season; under is 19-13. Big East teams are 3-1 in bowl games this year, 3-0 vs spread as underdogs. SEC teams are 4-3 SU/ATS; they've been favored in every game.
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NCAAF
Saturday, January 5
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Compass Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi (-3, 53.5)
When: 1:00 PM ET, Saturday, January 5, 2013
Where: Legion Field, Birmingham, Alabama
BBVA COMPASS BOWL STORYLINES
1. Pittsburgh will be playing in Birmingham for the third straight year, but for the first time with the same man who coached the team during the regular season (Paul Chryst). Dave Wannstedt was fired prior to the team’s 27-10 win over Kentucky after the 2010 season before Todd Graham missed last season's 28-6 defeat against SMU to take over at Arizona State.
2. The Panthers boast a 3,000-yard passer and 1,000-yard rusher in the same season for the first time in school history. Tino Sunseri has thrown for 3,103 yards – the third highest single-season total by a Pittsburgh quarterback – while running back Ray Graham recovered from preseason knee surgery and has rushed for 1,042 yards.
3. Mississippi will be making its first bowl appearance since the 2009 season under first-year coach Hugh Freeze. Like Chryst – who was rumored to be a top candidate for the Wisconsin opening before Utah State's Gary Andersen accepted the job – Freeze will be staying put after signing an extension and leading the Rebels back to .500 after a dismal 2-10 record last season under Houston Nutt.
TV: 1 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE: Mississippi -3, O/U 53.5.
CONSENSUS: Over 59 percent of Covers Consensus players like Ole Miss to cover and 61 percent are on the under.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-40s with a 30 percent chance of showers. Winds will be calm.
TRENDS:
* Under is 6-0 in Panthers’ last six bowl games.
* Rebels are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four neutral site games.
* Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games.
ABOUT PITTSBURGH (6-6, 3-4 Big East): The Panthers – who will move to the Atlantic Coast Conference next season – will be appearing in a bowl game for the fifth consecutive year and have reason to feel optimistic about their chances after a 4-2 finish, including a near-upset of No. 1 Notre Dame. Graham has already solidified his place among the most productive running backs in school history as he enters his final college game with 3,271 yards rushing and 4,943 all-purpose yards – both good for second place all-time with the Panthers. The Panthers committed only eight turnovers this season – tied with Ohio for the fewest in FBS.
ABOUT MISSISSIPPI (6-6, 3-5 SEC): The Rebels are 21-12 all-time in bowl games and have won eight of their past nine in the postseason. Quarterback Bo Wallace, who paced the Rebels with eight rushing scores, leads a ground game that has scored 23 touchdowns and averaged 169.7 yards this season in Freeze’s spread attack. Wallace threw for 294 yards and five touchdowns in the team’s last game – a 41-24 victory over Mississippi State – but moving the ball may not come as easy since Pittsburgh’s defense ranks in the top 25 in several categories: total (16th), scoring (21st), pass (24th) and rush (tied for 24th).
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Where the action is: Remaining bowl games
Bowl season is winding down, but some of the most anticipated matchups are still to come. We talk with online sportsbook BetDSI.eu about the biggest line moves on the board.
Compass Bowl
Pitt vs. Ole Miss (-3, 53.5)
Not a lot of betting on the side for this game as of yet, but the current bet and money counts are both about a 2-to-1 position in favor of Ole Miss. There was some sharp money on the over at the 51, 51.5, and 52 values pushing that total to its current 54 value. The money wagered is about 2-to-1 on the over and as the public chimes in, that number will more than likely escalate even further by kick off.
Go Daddy.com Bowl
Arkansas State vs. Kent State (-3.5, 61)
Most of the volume here has favored Arkansas State at the -3 number. There has been decent movement on the game, but nothing really sharp backing either side to this point. Arkansas St. is seeing a lean in its favor with almost a 2-to-1 in wager count and money wagered slightly favors Kent State. There was some respected money that did come in on the total at 61.5.
BCS Championship Game
Alabama vs. Notre Dame (9.5, 40.5)
Sharp money hit Alabama early at +7.5, +8, and +8.5, pushing the current line value to 9.5. The current situation and expectation is the public will be somewhat split on this game as it heads towards kick off. Sharp money is also backing the under at the 41 and 41.5 values. The total has a 2-to-1 money wagered lean on the under and the line is currently sitting at the 40 value.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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01-05-13 04:47 PM |
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