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Home Cookin'
December 18, 2012
REGIONAL or HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE
Over the course of the last 20 seasons, 19 bowl games have been played at one of the teams' home field. The host teams are 11-8 straight up and 11-7 against the spread in those games.
In 2012, only one team will be hosting a bowl game, and that is San Diego State, who welcomes BYU to Qualcomm Stadium for the Poinsettia Bowl game. The Aztecs are three-point underdogs in that game, and for the record, home 'dogs are 5-2 ATS in that group.
Preparing for several weeks to play a game at your home field is certainly advantageous. The advantage that isn't always as glaring, and therefore often overlooked, is a regional advantage. There are many examples of teams playing bowl games in their home state, perhaps less than three hours from their campus. The chances for that team to feel as if they are the home team by rallying their fans to the cause are much greater than the opponent, who, along with its fans, has to endure more rigorous travel to get to a bowl game. The examples of the latter are many fold.
From last year alone, Florida beat Ohio State at the Gator Bowl, Texas A&M beat Northwestern at the Texas Bowl, Rutgers turned back Iowa State at the Pinstripe Bowl, Baylor came up big over Washington at San Antonio in the Alamo Bowl, NC State won the Belk Bowl in Charlotte against Louisville, Louisiana-Lafayette was a winner at the Superdome in New Orleans over San Diego State, Houston beat Penn State in the Heart of Dallas Bowl, and Florida State beat Notre Dame in the Russell Athletic Bowl.
Losing teams in would be regional advantage games were California (Holiday Bowl), and UCLA (Fight Hunger). If you're keeping score, that was 8-2 against the spread. That is a record worth noting.
You will find games like this on every year's bowl card, as organizers do this to increase attendance figures and enhance the experience for the travelers. The trouble for oddsmakers is that this home field edge is impossible to quantify, and as a result, most bowl games not at a specific home field are treated as neutral games. Therefore, this is an easy spot for bettors to pick up at least a couple points of value on a line.
Here's a look at the games that would qualify as regional advantage games on the 2012-13 bowl board:
Teams listed first have the Regional Edge
Friday, Dec. 21
Beef O' Brady's Bowl at Tropicana Field from St. Petersburg, FL
Central Florida vs. Ball State
Saturday, Dec. 22
New Orleans Bowl at Superdome from New Orleans, LA
Louisiana-Lafayette vs. East Carolina
Wednesday, Dec. 26
Little Caesar's Bowl at Ford Field from Detroit, MI
Central Michigan vs. Western Kentucky
Thursday, Dec. 27
Belk Bowl at Bank of America Stadium from Charlotte, NC
Duke vs. Cincinnati
Holiday Bowl at Qualcomm Stadium from San Diego, CA
UCLA vs. Baylor
Friday, Dec. 28
Independence Bowl at Independence Stadium from Shreveport, LA
Louisiana-Monroe vs. Ohio
Friday, Dec. 28
Meineke Car Care Bowl at Reliant Stadium from Houston, Texas
Texas Tech vs. Minnesota
Saturday, Dec. 29
Armed Forces Bowl at Amon G Carter Stadium from Fort Worth, TX
Rice vs. Air Force
Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium from Bronx, NY
Syracuse vs. West Virginia
Alamo Bowl at Alamodome from San Antonio, TX
Texas vs. Oregon State
Monday, Dec. 31
Music City Bowl at LP Field from Nashville, TN
Vanderbilt vs. NC State
Tuesday, Jan. 1
Rose Bowl at Rose Bowl Stadium from Pasadena, CA
Stanford vs. Wisconsin
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-26-12 10:19 PM |
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CNOTES
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Five NCAAF teams bowling for the first time in a long time
Five teams blow the dust off their bowling shoes this month after an extended absence from the postseason. Two of those programs have actually never taken those shoes out of the box.
Here’s a look at the teams bowling for the first time in a long time:
Western Kentucky (7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS)
The Hilltoppers, who have only been a member of the FBS since 2008, play in their first big-boy bowl game when they take on Central Michigan in the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl on Dec. 26. Oddsmakers have tabbed WKU as a 5-point favorite at Ford Field. Western Kentucky was a golden goose for bettors early in the season, going 6-0 ATS, but finished with a 2-4 ATS mark in the final six games.
UL Monroe Warhawks (8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS)
The Warhawks are another program making its bowl debut this year. UL Monroe is a 7-point favorite versus Ohio in the Independence Bowl on Dec. 28, snapping an 18-year bowl drought after jumping to Div-IA in 1994. The Warhawks don’t have to travel far with the game scheduled in Shreveport, Louisiana – just an hour and a half drive down the 20.
Kent State Golden Flashes (11-2 SU, 10-2-1 ATS)
The last time the Golden Flashes were featured in a bowl game, The Godfather was cleaning up at the Oscars, Roberta Flack topped the music charts, and former head coach Darrell Hazell was eight years old. Kent State makes its first bowl appearance since the 1972 Tangerine Bowl, in which it lost 21-18 to Tampa, when it faces Arkansas State in the GoDaddy.com Bowl on Jan. 6. Books have KSU as a 3.5-point underdog following Hazell’s departure to Purdue.
Duke Blue Devils (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS)
The Blue Devils may be staples of the college hoops postseason but the football version of the Dukies hasn’t been bowling since the 1995 Hall of Fame Bowl, when Duke lost to Wisconsin 34-20 as an 8-point underdog. This year’s team just made the bowl cut with six wins and draws Cincinnati for the Dec. 27 Belk Bowl in Charlotte. Books are dealing Duke +7 after the team stumbled into the postseason with four straight losses SU and ATS.
San Jose State Spartans (10-2 SU, 10-2 ATS)
The Spartans are one of the best bets in college football and are 7-point favorites versus Bowling Green in the Military Bowl on Dec. 27. This is San Jose State’s first bowl game since 2006 when it beat New Mexico in the New Mexico Bowl, 20-12, as a 3-point underdog. Before that, SJSU hadn’t been bowling since 1990. The Spartans have fared well in bowl season, posting a 5-3 SU mark going back to the 1946 Raisin Bowl.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-26-12 10:22 PM |
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Wednesday, December 26
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C MICHIGAN (6 - 6) vs. W KENTUCKY (7 - 5) - 12/26/2012, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
C MICHIGAN is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
W KENTUCKY is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
W KENTUCKY is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
W KENTUCKY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
W KENTUCKY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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Wednesday, December 26
7:30 PM
CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY
Central Michigan is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Central Michigan is 6-19 ATS in its last 25 games
Western Kentucky is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Western Kentucky is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games
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WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 26
Game 215-216: Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 76.975; Central Michigan 70.778
Dunkel Line: Western Kentucky by 6; 62
Vegas Line: Western Kentucky by 5; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (-5); Over
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Wednesday, December 26, 2012
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl
Central Michigan vs. Western Kentucky, 7:30 ET ESPN
Central Michigan: 2-9 ATS off a road game
Western Kentucky: 7-0 ATS away off a conference game
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Wednesday, December 26
Little Caesar’s Bowl
Western Kentucky has to be thrilled to be playing in its first-ever bowl, especially after being snubbed LY, but coach Taggart dampened lot of the enthusiasm by bolting for South Florida job. WKU lost four of last six games, allowed 31.5 ppg in last four and failed to cover last three tries as a favorite, but they held Alabama to 328 TY, 2nd-least Crimson Tide gained this year in 35-0 (+38) loss in September. Five of last seven WKU games were decided by 5 or less points. Central Michigan won four of last five games to get here, and maybe save coach Enos’ job; he is 12-24 in three years, but was 8-23 before late surge, at a school used to recent success. Chippewas are 2-4 in bowl games, with last three all decided by exactly 3 points- they’re 1-5 vs spread as an underdog this year, giving up 41+ points in five of their six losses, all while playing #118 (out of 124) ranked schedule. MAC underdogs are 17-15 vs spread this season; Sun Belt favorites are 5-2.
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Little Caesar's Bowl
Western Kentucky - Antonio Andrews was nation's leading all purpose runner with 2977 yards this year.
Central Michigan – RB Zurlon Tipton has rushed for over 100 yards in six straight games, with CMU going 4-2 ATS.
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NCAAF
Wednesday, December 26
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Little Caesars Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan (6, 57)
LITTLE CAESARS BOWL STORYLINES
1. Western Kentucky makes its first bowl appearance in history as a program in transition. Coach Willie Taggart left to take the South Florida job, disgraced former Arkansas coach Bobby Petrino takes over the Hilltoppers, but defensive coordinator Lance Guidry will guide the team in the bowl game.
2. Central Michigan saved its best football for a 13-day stretch in November. The Chippewas were 3-6 after losing to Western Michigan, but won three games in less than two weeks starting with a 34-31 victory over Eastern Michigan on Nov. 10. A 42-21 triumph at Massachusetts moved Central Michigan to 6-6 on the season.
3. The Chippewas average 29.3 points; the Hilltoppers 28.8. The big difference comes on defense. Western Kentucky allows 25.6 points per game (second in the Sun Belt Conference), while Central Michigan surrenders 33.3. Western Kentucky struggled on defense down the stretch, allowing 30-plus points four times in six games to go 2-4. Losing senior defensive end Quanterus Smith (12 sacks) to a torn left ACL in the next-to-last game was a big blow.
TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE: Western Kentucky -6, O/U 57
CONSENSUS: Nearly 55 percent of Covers Consensus players are backing Western Kentucky and 58 percent like the over.
TRENDS:
* Hilltoppers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a win.
* Chippewas are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 4-1 in Chippewas’ last five December games.
* Over is 4-1 in Hilltoppers’ last five games following a win.
ABOUT WESTERN KENTUCKY (7-5, 4-4 Sun Belt): Junior running back Antonio Andrews comes in after two monster rushing games, finishing with 238 yards against Louisiana-Lafayette and 230 yards against North Texas. The Sun Belt’s leading rusher with 1,609 yards this season, Andrews has three games of 200-plus yards and leads the conference by averaging 248.1 all-purpose yards. The Hilltoppers have been particularly tough on opposing running games, holding opponents to only 136.6 yards on the ground (second in the conference). Junior linebacker Andrew Jackson leads Western Kentucky and ranks second in the conference in tackles (116).
ABOUT CENTRAL MICHIGAN (6-4, 4-4 MAC): The Chippewas make their fourth appearance in the Detroit bowl since 2006, going 1-2. They have running back Zurlon Tipton to thank for helping fuel their last-season sprint. The junior rushed for 185 yards and four touchdowns in the victory over Massachusetts, and has rushed for 110 or more yards in six consecutive games. Tipton rushed for 1,391 yards and 19 touchdowns this season. Quarterback Ryan Radcliff (2,905 yards, 20 touchdowns) finished third in the MAC in passing yards. Sophomore linebacker Justin Cherocci averaged 10.3 tackles per game, fourth in the conference.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-26-12 10:28 PM |
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CNOTES
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High-Scoring Game Expected Thursday In Holiday Bowl
San Jose State Spartans vs. Bowling Green Falcons
Military Bowl Betting Preview
Date: 12/27/2012 at 3:00 p.m. (ET) Opening Lines: San Jose St -7½, O/U 47
Television: ESPN
San Jose State: A trip to the Military Bowl in the nation's capital is the Spartans' (10-2 straight-up and against the spread) reward for a second-place finish in the WAC. San Jose State finished the season with six consecutive wins, covering five in that stretch, and cashed seven "over" tickets in the last 10 games.
Bowling Green: The Falcons (8-4 SU and ATS) closed the regular season with seven wins in their last eight games, covering the spread in all seven victories. Bowling Green was an "under" bettor's dream with a 10-1 record to the low side of totals, a credit to the defense that ranked seventh nationally in fewest yards allowed (289.7 per game) and eighth in scoring (15.8 points per game allowed).
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Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Duke Blue Devils
Belk Bowl Betting Preview
Date: 12/27/2012 at 6:30 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Cincinnati -10, O/U 58
Television: ESPN
Cincinnati: Part of a four-way tie for the Big East title, the Bearcats (9-3 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) head to the Belk Bowl without Coach Butch Jones, who was lured away to take the same job at Tennessee. Steve Stripling will serve as the interim coach before Tommy Tuberville takes over in 2013. Cincinnati finished the regular season on a 4-1 run both SU and ATS.
Duke: Despite closing 0-4 both SU and ATS, the Blue Devils (6-6 SU and ATS) are taking part in the bowl season for the first time since 1995. Senior quarterback Sean Renfree directed the Duke offense with more than 2,700 yards passing and 18 touchdowns through the air, throwing for over 400 yards in the regular-season finale along with four TD strikes, including a 99-yarder to his favorite target Jamison Crowder.
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Baylor Bears vs. UCLA Bruins
Holiday Bowl Betting Preview
Date: 12/27/2012 at 9:45 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: UCLA -1, O/U 77½
Television: ESPN
Baylor: Coach Art Briles and the Bears (7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS) finished strong with four wins in their final five games to reach the Holiday Bowl. Baylor covered its last five games and went 8-3 "over" for the season. Senior QB Nick Florence ranks third in the country, averaging more than 343 yards passing per game, and the Bears' offense finished fifth in the nation in putting up over 44 points per contest.
UCLA: The Bruins (9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS) closed the regular season with back-to-back losses to Stanford, but they rewarded "over" bettors with a their last six contests each jumping the total. UCLA's ground game is 27th in the country (202.9 yards per game) behind senior tailback Johnathan Franklin, who ran for an even 1,700 yards (5th) and 13 scores plus hauled in 32 passes along the way, two of which went for touchdowns.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-27-12 07:41 PM |
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CNOTES
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Surging Baylor takes on UCLA in Holiday Bowl Thursday
BAYLOR BEARS (7-5)
vs. UCLA BRUINS (9-4)
Holiday Bowl - San Diego, CA
Kickoff: Thursday, 9:45 p.m. EDT
Line: UCLA -1, Total: 81.5
Two high-powered offenses showcase their stuff on Thursday night when pass-happy Baylor clashes with run-oriented UCLA in the Holiday Bowl in San Diego.
Baylor brings a five-game ATS win streak (4-1 SU) into this game, while UCLA has lost two straight, both to Stanford. The Bears lead the nation with 579 total YPG thanks to QB Nick Florence (FBS-best 388 total YPG) and WR Terrance Williams (FBS-leading 147 receiving YPG). The Bruins prefer to pound the football with RB Johnathan Franklin (131 rush YPG, 8th in FBS), who just rumbled for 194 yards and 2 TD versus Stanford’s top-ranked run defense. Baylor had 67 points in last year’s Alamo Bowl, marking its first bowl win since 1992. The Bruins have lost five of their past seven bowls, dropping a 20-14 decision to Illinois in last year's Fight Hunger Bowl.
Can UCLA stop the nation's most prolific offense on Thursday? For the answer, download your FREE copy of the StatFox Edge College Bowl Guide for all the StatFox Experts picks for each of the 35 bowls, both Against The Spread and Over/Under.
Florence has thrown for 4,121 yards, 31 TD and just 13 INT this season, as he has been able to throw at least 2 TD in 10 of 12 games, and play INT-free football in four of the past five contests. He has also rushed for a touchdown in eight of his past nine games, including five in a row. Despite Williams leading the nation with a school-record 1,764 receiving yards, his production has tailed off considerably late in the season. After five straight 135-yard performances, he has less than 100 yards in three of his past four contests, and of his dozen TD grabs on the season, only three have come in the past six games. But the Bears don't put up 44.1 PPG (5th in nation) solely because of their passing game. Lache Seastrunk has been outstanding in the past three games, rushing for 499 yards (166 YPG) on 54 carries (9.2 YPC). This includes a whopping 178 yards on 16 attempts in Baylor's regular season finale, a 41-34 win over Oklahoma State. The defensive problems abound for the Bears who allow the 2nd-most yards (514 YPG), 3rd-most passing yards (323 YPG), and 7th-most points (38.2 PPG) in the nation. Much of this stems from a non-existent pass rush with 1.1 sacks per game (T-8th fewest in FBS) and 3.8 Tackles For Loss per game (3rd-fewest in nation). The one positive for Baylor is that it creates turnovers, piling up 15 takeaways during a six-game, multi-turnover streak.
Before suffering back-to-back losses against Stanford's elite defense, UCLA had averaged 42.8 PPG over a five-game win streak. Franklin has rushed for more than 100 yards in nine of 13 games this year, surpassing 160 yards in four of his past six contests. This has put him atop the school's all-time rushing list with 4,369 career yards. The Bruins are not just a one-dimensional ground game though, as freshman QB Brett Hundley has thrown for 3,411 yards (262 YPG), 26 TD and 11 INT this season. The 26 TD were second most in the history of the school, and in the past seven games, he has thrown for 13 TD and just 4 INT, while rushing for five scores. Many of these touchdown passes have gone to TE Joseph Fauria, who has scored in nine different games this year, totaling 11 touchdowns on his 41 receptions (for 578 yards). Junior WR Shaquelle Evans leads the team with 53 catches and 795 receiving yards, but has gone six straight games without finding the end zone. The one problem offensively is that the Bruins have taken the third-most sacks in the nation, suffering 3.5 sacks per game. But the line is much more impressive on the defensive end, as the D-Line has been responsible for most of the team's 43 sacks this year (T-4th in FBS). Junior LB Anthony Barr leads the nation with 13.5 sacks to accompany his 74 tackles and 20.5 Tackles For Loss. Sophomore LB Eric Kendricks is a tackling machine with 137 stops (5th in FBS).
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-27-12 07:47 PM |
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CNOTES
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Thursday's Bowl Tips
December 27, 2012
Military Bowl at RFK Stadium from Washington, D.C. (ESPN, 3:00 p.m.)
Bowling Green (8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS) vs. San Jose State (10-2 SU, 10-2 ATS)
Breakdown: San Jose State will be making just their second bowl game since 1991, after assembling their first 10-win season since 1987. The Spartans defense was not only stalwart, but opportunists. San Jose's stop troops ended up at 28th in the country and they were persistent in forcing 31 turnovers. Third-year coach Mike MacIntyre has changed the culture and his offense with David Fales at the helm, has three receivers averaging over 12 yards a catch. After being shutout 37-0 by Virginia Tech, Bowling Green regrouped to finish the season 7-1 (SU & ATS). The Falcons have an awesome defense (7th nationally) led by MAC defensive Player of the Year Chris Jones. The defensive tackle had 19 tackles for loss, including 12 1/2 sacks. Bowling Green is below average offensively (scored 23.2 PPG vs. foes which allowed 31.6), with QB Matt Schilz more of a game manager than a playmaker.
Head-to-Head History: Not surprisingly, this will be the first head-to-head matchup between Bowling Green and San Jose State. In fact, it will be the first time ever that the Spartans face a MAC team in a lined game. They just don't get as east as Washington DC very often, but they did make the trip to nearby Annapolis in September, beating Navy 12-0. BGSU is 2-4 SU & ATS vs. WAC foes since '05.
Bowl Series History: San Jose State has never played a game this late in the season, and it will be at an all-too unfamiliar place, some 2800 miles away from home. Don't read too much into that however, as Air Force and UCLA both traveled great distances to play in this game and were 2-0 ATS. Additionally, favorites have won all four prior games in this bowl series, going 3-1 ATS. Bowling Green will be representing the MAC, hoping to break a 0-2 ATS slide for their league in this game. Don't forget the total either, as all four prior games went OVER.
Belk Bowl at Bank of America Stadium from Charlotte, NC (ESPN, 6:30 p.m.)
Cincinnati (9-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) vs. Duke (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Breakdown: With a Belk Bowl victory, Cincinnati will have posted its fifth 10 or more win season in the past six years. The Bearcats performed well against the run, holding opponents to 3.7 yards per attempt. In this contest, it will be how Cincy plays the pass which will count more, as this is Duke's strength. If the Bearcats generate a steady pass rush, the secondary will hold up. The switch to QB Brendon Kay gave Cincinnati a down the field passing game and RB George Winn could well match his team's 5.2 YPC average versus the Blue Devils. Duke is excited about their first bowl game since 1994, but they have their work cut out for them. The Blue Devils have a capable passing offense with QB Sean Renfree and receivers Conner Vernon and Jamison Crowder. Can the Duke defense play better after allowing 41.6 PPG in away games?
Head-to-Head History: Cincinnati and Duke have never met in football, so there will be a lot of unfamiliarity involved as Duke plays its first bowl game in 18 seasons. The Blue Devils haven't even faced a Big East team since '07 when they lost to Connecticut 45-14 at home. The Bearcats took on Virginia Tech of the ACC back in September in a neutral field game at Fed Ex Field and won 27-24.
Bowl Series History: The Belk Bowl in Charlotte, NC has had a pair of different names in its 10-year history, but one thing is for certain regardless of the name, home field advantage has proven important. In fact, teams from the state of North Carolina are on a 5-1 ATS run in this game, good news for Duke, who plays as a sizeable underdog to Cincinnati. Strangely, underdogs and favorites have alternated ATS victories every year in this bowl game since its inception in 2002. By that pattern, Duke as the underdog would be the winner in 2012. The last two games went OVER the total.
Holiday Bowl at Qualcomm Stadium from San Diego, CA (ESPN, 9:45 p.m.)
Baylor (7-4 SU, 4-7 ATS) vs. UCLA (9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Breakdown: This could be the "explosion" bowl with both these football teams able to generate explosive plays at any moment. Baylor leads the nation in total offense with 578.7 YPG and finished strong (4-1 and 5-0 ATS) because RB's Lache Seastrunk and Glasco Martin took over a larger part of the offense and helped Nick Florence not feel like he had to complete every pass. The Bears were 123rd in defense and will have to force the almost three turnovers a game like they did to close the regular season. The Holiday Bowl is annually a top attraction and UCLA will do its part to carry on the tradition. QB Brett Hundley is one of the top dual-threat quarterbacks in the country and RB Johnathan Franklin has excelled as a senior in offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone's spread option. With the Bruins spotty defense, the oddsmakers opening total of 77.5 is inviting.
Head-to-Head History: Baylor and UCLA meet for the first time ever at the Holiday Bowl. The Bears faced Pac 12 foe Washington in last year's Alamo Bowl game and won 67-56 behind 777 yards of offense. They have covered three straight games against Pac 12 opponents. UCLA hasn't faced a Big 12 team in a bowl game since '98 and 10 of their 12 games vs. that conference since went OVER the total.
Bowl Series History: After underdogs had ripped off eight straight ATS victories in the Holiday Bowl from 1998 through 2005, favorites have turned it around, going 5-1 SU & ATS in the last six years. You'll need to watch the closing line for this year's game as oddsmakers project it to be a tight affair. In terms of conferences, the Big 12 and Pac 12 have alternated ATS wins over the last seven years, with UCLA and the Pac 12 due in 2012. The last four Holiday Bowl games went UNDER the total, and the losing team has put up just 20 points in the last three.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-27-12 07:50 PM |
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CNOTES
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Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12047
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Thursday, December 27
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BOWLING GREEN (8 - 4) vs. SAN JOSE ST (10 - 2) - 12/27/2012, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN JOSE ST is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
SAN JOSE ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games this season.
SAN JOSE ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAN JOSE ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in non-conference games this season.
SAN JOSE ST is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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CINCINNATI (9 - 3) vs. DUKE (6 - 6) - 12/27/2012, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DUKE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
DUKE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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BAYLOR (7 - 5) vs. UCLA (9 - 4) - 12/27/2012, 9:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BAYLOR is 66-92 ATS (-35.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
BAYLOR is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BAYLOR is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
UCLA is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in road games after a bye week since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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Thursday, December 27
3:00 PM
BOWLING GREEN vs. SAN JOSE STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Bowling Green's last 7 games
Bowling Green is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
San Jose State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Jose State's last 7 games
6:30 PM
CINCINNATI vs. DUKE
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Duke is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Duke's last 8 games
9:45 PM
BAYLOR vs. UCLA
Baylor is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Baylor's last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of UCLA's last 5 games
UCLA is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
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Belk Bowl: Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Duke Blue Devils – Open: +10.5, Move: +7
Money has faded the Bearcats since the announcement that head coach Butch Jones would be leaving for Tennessee. Cincinnati has since hired Tommy Tuberville as his replacement but will hand the keys over to the remaining coaching staff for the Belk Bowl.
“Duke’s going to be really hungry in this one because it’s been so long between bowl games,” says Kessler, referring to the Blue Devils’ 17-year bowl absence since playing in the 1995 Hall of Fame Bowl. “Duke is going to be jacked up.”
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THURSDAY, DECEMBER 27
Game 217-218: San Jose State vs. Bowling Green (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 86.323; Bowling Green 83.717
Dunkel Line: San Jose State by 2 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: San Jose State by 7; 47
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (+7); Over
Game 219-220: Cincinnati vs. Duke (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 92.110; Duke 79.712
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 12 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7; 60
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-7); Under
Game 221-222: Baylor vs. UCLA (9:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 106.482; UCLA 105.469
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 1; 83
Vegas Line: UCLA by 1; 79 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (+1); Over
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Military Bowl
San Jose State - No. 2 passing efficiency offense (in terms of percentage) in the country (71.29).
Bowling Green – In addition to being the most profitable under team this year (1-10 O/U) the Falcons have only one win over a team with a winning record this season – 8-4 Ohio.
Belk Bowl
Cincinnati – Bearcats are 2-7 ATS in bowl games since 2000.
Duke: The Blue Devils haven’t been to a bowl game since the 1994 Hall of Fame Bowl.
Holiday Bowl
Baylor - Bear have the best total offense in the nation with 578 yards per game.
UCLA – Bruins ranks 91st against the pass and have allowed at least 295 yards through the air in five of 13 games.
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NCAAF
Short Sheet
Bowl Season
All Remaining Games
Thursday, December 27, 2012
Military Bowl
Bowling Green vs. San Jose State, 3:00 ET ESPN
Bowling Green: 15-6 Under off a conference game
San Jose State: 6-0 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
Belk Bowl
Cincinnati vs. Duke, 6:30 ET ESPN | Matt Fargo's Bowl Preview
Cincinnati: 13-3 ATS away off BB games allowing 17 points or less
Duke: 0-6 ATS away off a conference game
Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl
Baylor vs. UCLA, 9:45 ET ESPN
Baylor: 13-5 ATS off BB games gaining 525+ total yards
UCLA: 4-16 ATS away playing with rest
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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Bowl Season
Thursday, December 27
Military Bowl (Washington DC)
MAC somehow got seven bowl bids; first two lost 41-15/38-17, as they are worst D-I league in country. San Jose State comes cross country for first bowl game in six years with interim coach after MacIntyre bolted for Colorado; rain, wind expected, temps in mid-40's. Spartans won last two bowls, are 6-2 as favorites this year- they beat BYU, La Tech, lost by only 3 at Stanford. Bowling Green is in first bowl since '09, a 43-42 loss to Idaho; they've allowed average of 39.8 ppg in last five bowls, but won six of last seven games overall after 1-3 start (lost at Florida and Va Tech); they are 2-2 as underdogs this year, just 7-15 on FGs. San Jose's PK is 15-15 on FGs. WAC non-conference favorites are 6-7 vs spread; MAC underdogs are 18-16. Favorites covered three of previous four in this bowl, with average total in bowl history, 63.3.
Belk Bowl (Charlotte)
Duke (+10) upset North Carolina October 20 to go 6-2, became eligible to for a bowl, but then lost its last four games, allowing average of 49.5 ppg to limp into its first bowl in 18 years, when they lost 34-20 at the old Hall of Fame Bowl to Wisconsin. Blue Devils' last bowl win was in 1960 in the Cotton Bowl, over Alabama. Cincinnati is in sixth bowl in last seven years (3-2 in last five); they're 9-3, but other than upset win over a subpar Va Tech team, no Cincy wins stand out- they covered four of last five games as a favorite. Bearcats lost coach Jones to Tennessee, will have 4th coach in seven years in '13. Duke is 2-6 vs spread as a dog; favorites are 9-2 vs spread in their games this season. ACC teams are 6-3 in this bowl, 2-1 vs spread when dog; favorites are 5-4 overall in this bowl. Not sure Cincinnati is thrilled to be here, after playing in higher profile bowl games. Duke is definitely happy to be playing anywhere on December 27. Big East faves are 8-8 vs spread, 2-6 on road; ACC non-conference underdogs are 3-11 this season.
Holiday Bowl (San Diego)
UCLA coach Mora, former NFL mentor, is in first bowl; his Bruins are 1-3 in bowls last six years, losing to Illinois in San Francisco LY- they'll be more excited to be playing here, fairly close to home, in much better weather. UCLA upset rival USC to get to 9-2, then lost on consecutive weekends to Stanford; they scored 24 or less points in all four losses, up to Baylor to keep them there, but Bears scored 50+ points in two of its five losses this year, thats how bad their defense is; Baylor is playing in third straight bowl after going bowlless for previous 15 years; they beat Washington 67-56 LY, after losing 38-14 to Illinois two years ago. Big X teams are 13-9 vs spread in non-conference games this season; Pac-12 teams are 11-16. Losing side scored 0-7-10 points in last three Holiday Bowls, which used to be famous for wild, high-scoring games; last six years, this game was decided by 11+ points, with Big X/Pac-12 teams alternating wins last seven years.
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Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-27-12 07:57 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12047
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NCAAF
Thursday, December 27
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Military Bowl: What bettors need to know
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San Jose State vs. Bowling Green (7.5, 44)
MILITARY BOWL STORYLINES
1. Bowling Green has allowed an average of 15.8 points and ranks seventh in the nation in total defense (289.7), while San Jose State’s offense has been productive, averaging 35.2 points and 327.5 yards passing.
2. The two teams combined for three victories in 2010 and both finished 5-7 in 2011. San Jose State won its last bowl in 2006 (New Mexico) and is 5-3 overall. Bowling Green last won in 2004 (GMAC) and is 4-5.
3. Both offensive lines will get quite a challenge. San Jose State is fifth in the nation with 40 sacks and Bowling Green ninth with 37, led by defensive tackle Chris Jones (12.5).
TV: 3 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE: San Jose State -7.5, O/U 44
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-30s with partly cloudy skies at RFK Stadium. Winds will gust out of the WNW at 20 mph.
CONSENSUS: Nearly 57 percent of Covers Consensus players like San Jose State to cover.
TRENDS:
* Spartans are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Under is 6-1 in Falcons’ last seven games following a win.
* Over is 4-1 in Spartans’ last five games vs. a team with a winning record.
ABOUT SAN JOSE STATE (10-2, 5-1 WAC): The Spartans can reach the 11-victory mark for the first time since 1939 without coach Mike MacIntyre, who accepted the job at Colorado on Dec. 10. Defensive coordinator Kent Baer, the interim coach, takes over a team that has averaged just over 40 points in six straight wins. Quarterback David Fales has led the lethal offense, completing 72.1 percent of his passes and throwing for 31 scores with only nine interceptions. Noel Grigsby has been the top target, scoring nine times while compiling 1,173 yards on 73 receptions. Chandler Jones has a team-high 10 touchdown receptions. De’Leon Eskridge has led the ground attack with 992 yards and 10 touchdowns. Safety Bene Benwikere is the player to watch on defense with seven interceptions and 62 tackles.
ABOUT BOWLING GREEN (8-4, 6-2 MAC): The Falcons have leaned on their defense to win seven of its last eight games after losing to bowl teams Florida, Toledo and Virginia Tech early on. Jones, the MAC Defensive Player of the Year, leads the way while linebacker Gabe Martin and defensive back BooBoo Gates also stand out. Bowling Green has held opponents to an average of 173 yards through the air and a 28 percent conversion rate on third down. The Falcons have averaged 28.5 points the last eight games, keyed by quarterback Matt Schilz and running back Anthon Samuel. Schilz, a junior, has thrown 50 career touchdown passes and 39 interceptions - 14 and 12, respectively, this season. Samuel is 34 yards from becoming the eighth Bowling Green player to rush for 1,000 yards.
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NCAAF
Thursday, December 27
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Belk Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Cincinnati vs. Duke (9.5, 60.5)
BELK BOWL STORYLINES
1. Making its first bowl appearance in 17 years, Duke does not have to make a long trip as the Blue Devils meet Cincinnati in Charlotte, N.C., less than three hours from their campus in Durham. Led by ACC Coach of the Year David Cutcliffe and despite the excitement of heading to its first bowl game since 1995, Duke is on a four-game losing streak that has seen the Blue Devils allow 49.5 points during that span.
2. For the third time since 2006, Cincinnati goes into its postseason game without the coach that led the Bearcats during the season. After winning or sharing its fourth Big East Conference championship in the past five years, Cincinnati lost third-year coach Butch Jones on Dec. 7 to Tennessee, but 36 hours later hired former Texas Tech, Auburn, and Mississippi coach Tommy Tuberville. Offensive line coach Steve Stripling will coach the Bearcats in the bowl game.
3. With constant conference realignment in the air, Cincinnati has made no secret is would like to be in the ACC, which offered a spot to Louisville earlier this month. And the Bearcats would like to make a statement in the Belk Bowl, taking on Duke from the ACC. Cincinnati is making its 14th bowl appearance and sixth in the last seven years. In September, the Bearcats rallied to beat Virginia Tech in Washington D.C., knocking the Hokies out of the Top 25.
TV: ESPN, 6:30 p.m. ET.
LINE: Cincinnati -9.5. O/U 60.5
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-40s with clear skies at Bank of America Stadium. Wind shouldn’t be a factor.
CONSENSUS: Over 65 percent of Covers Consensus players like the Bearcats to cover.
TRENDS:
* Bearcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Blue Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Over is 5-1 in Bearcats’ last six December games.
* Over is 6-1-1 in Blue Devils’ last eight games overall.
ABOUT CINCINNATI (9-3, 5-2 Big East): Senior Brendon Kay took over for the versatile, but erratic Munchie Legaux at quarterback late in the season and led the Bearcats to three wins in four games. Kay is completing almost 62 percent of his passes for 966 yards and six touchdowns with only two interceptions. Kay also rushed for 230 yards and a pair of scores. Legaux accounted for 2,051 yards of offense and 17 touchdowns to go along with nine interceptions. Tight end Travis Kelce, a first team All-Big East performer is Cincinnati's top receiver with 40 catches for 599 yards and seven touchdowns. Second team All-Big East tailback George Winn was second in the league with 1,204 yards rushing. Winn had 12 touchdowns and five 100-yard games. The Bearcats average 430.8 yards and 31 points, while allowing only 13 sacks in 12 games. Cincinnati is allowing only 17.2 points, second in the Big East.
ABOUT DUKE (6-6, 3-5 ACC): The Blue Devils raced to a 6-2 start, highlighted by wins over North Carolina and Virginia before the ACC powers got them at the end of the season. Quarterback Sean Renfree has passed for 2,755 yards and 18 touchdowns while throwing only eight interceptions and Duke is the only FBS team in the nation to have three receivers catch more than 60 passes. Second team All-ACC performer Conner Vernon leads Duke with 75 receptions for 955 yards and seven touchdowns, while honorable mention all-ACC pick Jamison Crowder caught 70 for 1,025 yards and eight scores. Desmond Scott hauled in 61 receptions for 606 yards and two touchdowns. Duke averages 31.3 points and 396.6 yards total offense while allowing 35 points and 462.1 yards. Ross Martin, the honorable mention all-league kicker for the Blue Devils, is 18-for-20 in field goals, including 6-for-6 from beyond 40 yards.
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NCAAF
Thursday, December 27
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Holiday Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Baylor vs. UCLA (-3, 81.5)
BRIDGEPORT EDUCATION HOLIDAY BOWL STORYLINES
1. UCLA, ranked 19th, is looking for a 10-win season for the first time since 2005 as first-year coach Jim Mora has engineered an impressive turnaround. Baylor is playing in a third straight bowl game for the first time in school history and is also playing a bowl game outside the state of the Texas for the initial time.
2. The Holiday Bowl has a reputation for offensive fireworks and the Bruins and Bears should only add to the bowl’s lore. Baylor leads the nation in total offense at 578.8 yards per game and ranks fifth in scoring (44.1). UCLA is 20th in total offense (474.5) and 28th in scoring (35.1). Both teams have been very shaky defending the pass.
3. UCLA senior running back Johnathan Franklin is ninth in the nation in rushing yards per game (130.8) and is the school’s all-time leading rusher with 4,369 career yards. Baylor allows 190.8 rushing yards per game, so there will be opportunities for Franklin to conclude his career in style.
TV: 9:45 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE: UCLA -3, O/U 81.5
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-50s and clear skies at Qualcomm Stadium. Winds will blow out of the NW at 5 mph.
CONSENSUS: Just over 50 percent of Covers Consensus players believe Baylor will cover.
TRENDS:
* Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Bruins are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 6-0 in Bruins’ last six games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Bears’ last five neutral site games.
ABOUT BAYLOR (7-5, 4-5 Big 12): Senior quarterback Nick Florence was up to the arduous task of replacing Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III and leads the nation in total offense at 387.7 yards per game. Florence has passed for 4,121 yards and 31 touchdowns while being intercepted 13 times. He has a superb target in senior receiver Terrance Williams, who set a school-record with 1,764 receiving yards. Williams has 12 touchdowns among his 95 receptions. Sophomore running back Lache Seastrunk (874 yards) has played well down the stretch. Sophomore middle linebacker Bryce Hager has a team-leading 115 tackles, which leads the Big 12. Junior weak-side linebacker Eddie Lackey has a team-high four interceptions and returned two of them for touchdowns.
ABOUT UCLA (9-4, 6-3 Pac-12): The Bruins are coming off back-to-back losses to Stanford – the latter in the Pac-12 championship game – after winning five consecutive games. Franklin has rushed for a school-record 1,700 yards and was a runner-up for the Doak Walker Award won by Wisconsin’s Montee Ball. Redshirt freshman quarterback Brett Hundley has completed 68.2 percent of his passes for 3,411 yards and 26 touchdowns. He has been intercepted 11 times. Junior outside linebacker Anthony Barr is a force with 20.5 tackles for loss – including 13.5 sacks – and four forced fumbles. Sophomore inside linebacker Eric Kendricks has a team-best 137 tackles while senior cornerback Sheldon Price and senior safety Andrew Abbott share the team lead with four interceptions.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-27-12 07:59 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12047
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Pac-12 good, Big 12 bad: Best conferences to bet in bowl games
Teams from the SEC have been a popular pick with those college football bettors getting down early on the bowl season odds.
Just about every program from the nation’s most powerful conference playing in a bowl has seen their spread expand. And why not?
SEC teams are 62-49-2 ATS in bowl games since 1985, boasting a 66-47 SU mark in those contests.
That 54.8 percent cover rate is impressive but it’s not the best conference ATS count during bowl season. That honor goes to the Pac-12, which holds a 44-34 ATS record (40-38 SU) in bowl games over the past 27 years – covering the spread at a 56.4 percent click.
The Big 12, on the other hand, is a bowl season bust. The conference lugs a dismal 41-62-2 ATS (39 percent) record in bowl game since 1985, going 53-52 SU in those contests. In fact there are just five conferences that have finished in the black against the spread in that span.
The ACC (48-46-3 ATS), Big East (38-31-1 ATS), Mountain West (28-23 ATS), Pac-12 (44-34 ATS) and the SEC (62-49-2 ATS) are the only conference that have consistently turned a profit during bowl season over the last 27 years.
The Big 12 (41-62-2 ATS), C-USA (31-37-2 ATS), Independents (9-10 ATS), MAC (17-21-3 ATS), and WAC (19-23-2 ATS) have all cost bettors money at some point during that stretch while the Big Ten (48-48-1 ATS) and Sun Belt (9-9-2 ATS) have broken even.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-28-12 03:29 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12047
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Friday, December 28
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OHIO U (8 - 4) vs. LA MONROE (8 - 4) - 12/28/2012, 2:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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RUTGERS (9 - 3) vs. VIRGINIA TECH (6 - 6) - 12/28/2012, 5:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VIRGINIA TECH is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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MINNESOTA (6 - 6) vs. TEXAS TECH (7 - 5) - 12/28/2012, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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Friday, December 28
2:00 PM
OHIO vs. LOUISIANA-MONROE
Ohio is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games
Ohio is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
Louisiana-Monroe is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Louisiana-Monroe's last 6 games
5:30 PM
RUTGERS vs. VIRGINIA TECH
Rutgers is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Virginia Tech
Rutgers is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Virginia Tech is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Rutgers
9:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. TEXAS TECH
Minnesota is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Minnesota is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas Tech's last 6 games
Texas Tech is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
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Russell Athletic Bowl: Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Virginia Tech Hokies – Open: Pick, Move: -2.5
Early money has leaned towards the Hokies in this ACC/Big East battle on Dec. 28. Kessler, who opened Virginia Tech -1.5, took some big wagers on the Hokies this past week.
“We got hit on Virginia Tech and moved to -2.5,” he says. “It’s been really hard to bet on Virginia Tech this season, but they are clearly the better of the two teams.”
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FRIDAY, DECEMBER 28
Game 223-224: Ohio vs. UL-Monroe (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 71.274; UL-Monroe 79.423
Dunkel Line: UL-Monroe by 8; 57
Vegas Line: UL-Monroe by 7; 60
Dunkel Pick: UL-Monroe (-7); Under
Game 225-226: Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 83.855; Virginia Tech 88.030
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 4; 46
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (-2); Over
Game 227-228: Minnesota vs. Texas Tech (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 80.863; Texas Tech 95.660
Dunkel Line: Texas Tech by 15; 54
Vegas Line: Texas Tech by 12 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: Texas Tech (-12 1/2); Under
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Independence Bowl
La. Monroe - Only three teams in the country lost fewer fumbles this season (lost four).
Ohio – Bobcats have failed to cover in seven of their last eight games.
Russell Athletic Bowl
Rutgers - Worst first-down offense of all bowl teams with an average of just 16.7 ypg.
Virgina Tech – Defense allowed an average of 417 yards and 33.5 points against in road games this year compared to 334 yards and 23.9 points against at home.
Meineke Car Car Bowl
Minnesota – Only seven current Gophers played in the team’s last bowl game in 2009.
Texas Tech - Second-best passing offense in the nation with 361 yards per game.
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Friday, December 28, 2012
AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl
Ohio U vs. Louisiana Monroe, 2:00 ET ESPN
Ohio U: 1-7 ATS after the first month of the season
LA Monroe: 9-1 ATS off BB games with 40+ pass attempts
Russell Athletic Bowl
Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech, 5:30 ET ESPN
Rutgers: 17-6 ATS away off BB ATS losses
Virginia Tech: 0-6 ATS away vs. non-conference opponents
Meineke Car Care Bowl
Minnesota vs. Texas Tech, 9:00 ET ESPN
Minnesota: 9-1 Under after losing 4 or 5 of their last 6 games
Texas Tech: 22-8 ATS after committing 4+ turnovers
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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Bowl Season
Friday, December 28
Independence Bowl (Shreveport)
UL-Monroe is in its first-ever bowl; they'll be excited and have lot of fan support- this is game Louisiana Tech didn't want to play in, due to their animosity with ULM. Faves won/covered last six Independence Bowls; MAC teams are 0-2 in this bowl the last nine years, losing 17-13/17-10. Ohio is playing in 5th bowl in last eight years, upsetting Utah St 24-23 in LY's Potato Bowl; Bobcats could be diappointed to be here after 7-0 start that included win at Penn State- they lost last three games, allowing 35.3 ppg- they're 1-2 as underdog this year. ULM stumbled when QB Browning was hurt, but he's back now; they're 4-3 vs spread as favorite this year, and also won at Arkansas, lost to Auburn/Baylor by combined total of 8 points. Ohio QB Tettleton is son of former big league catcher; he threw 16 TDs with only three INTs, but Browning (27 TDs, 7 INTs) is key to this game for ULM/ Sun Belt non-conference favorites are 6-3 vs spread this year, 1-1 in bowls; MAC dogs are 18-18, 1-2 in bowls.
Russell Athletic (Orlando)
This is worst Hokie team since an 8-5 team in '03; they lost 40-12/23-20 in BCS bowls last two years. Virginia Tech covered only 7 of its last 26 games (3-9 this year); they had just three offensive starters back from LY and it showed, going 3-5 SU in last eight games, covering two of eight as a favorite. Rutgers is 5-0 in bowls over last five years, but Schiano is now in NFL and Flood is first-time HC; Knights lost last two games to slip out of BCS game to here, but they've got lot of Florida kids, should still be motivated. Problem is, they scored total of 33 points in last three games, but they also covered three of four as underdog, with SU wins at USF/Arkansas/Cincinnati. Tech allowed 27+ points in all six losses this year; Rutgers scored 27+ in only two of its last eight games. ACC teams are 7-2 in this bowl last nine years; underdogs covered five of last seven, with average total in last three just 32.0.
Meineke Car Care (Houston)
Domed stadium has lent to high-scoring games in this bowl; average total in last four Car Care Bowls is 51.8. Favorites are 6-2-1 vs spread in this bowl last nine years. 6-6 Minnesota's best WR (walk-on) quit team and trashed coach on his way out door; Gophers are in a bowl for first time in three years- they've lost last four bowls, with three losses by 3 or less points. Minnesota scored 13.5 ppg in last four games. Texas Tech didn't play in bowl LY but is 4-1 in last five bowls, scoring 39 ppg in five games- they played three OT games in last six, winning two of three OT tilts. Tuberville bolted for Cincinnati, so yet another interim coach here. Big X teams lost four of last five appearances in this bowl, with Texas A&M winning here LY, in its last game as a Big X member. Tech (-7) beat Gophers 44-41 in bowl game six years ago, in only series meeting. Houston setting favors Tech; so does Minnesota's 2-6 spread record as an underdog. Big Dozen non-conference underdogs are 4-3 vs spread.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-28-12 03:34 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12047
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NCAAF
Friday, December 28
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Independence Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Ohio Bobcats vs. UL Monroe Warhawks (-7, 60)
ADVOCARE V100 INDEPENDENCE BOWL STORYLINES
1. It did not take long for either team to make a major splash on the national scene this season. One week after Ohio opened its season Sept. 1 with a victory at Penn State, Louisiana-Monroe started what would become a historic campaign with a win over then-No. 10 Arkansas. The Warhawks are playing in the first bowl game in program history. The Bobcats gained a bowl bid for the fourth straight time and the fifth time since 2006.
2. Both teams had some bumps in the road following their season-opening victories over major-conference opponents, most notably Ohio. The Bobcats gained a Top 25 ranking after going 7-0, but lost four of their last five, the last three by a combined score of 106-47.
3. Louisiana-Monroe lost only two of its last nine games. It is not a coincidence that those two games came with quarterback Kolton Browning on the sidelines with a foot injury. Since coming back, Browning has returned to form and enters this one on a roll. In his last two games of the regular season, the junior completed 77.8 percent (56-for-72) of his passes and accounted for six touchdowns, including two on the ground.
TV: 2 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE: Louisiana-Monroe opened as low as -6 and has been bet up as high as -7.5. The total opened at 60 and has moved to 61 points.
CONSENSUS: 56 percent of Covers Consensus plays are on UL Monroe while 54 percent are on the over.
WEATHER: There is a 60 percent chance of rain for Independence Stadium and temperatures are expected to be in the low 50s. Winds are expected to blow NNW at 6 mph.
TRENDS:
* Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
* Warhawks are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. MAC.
* Over is 4-0 in Bobcats' last four vs. S-Belt.
* Over is 6-0 in Warhawks' last six non-conference games.
ABOUT OHIO (8-4, 4-4 MAC, 4-8 ATS): The Bobcats' 7-0 start was their best since 1968 and it came on the heels of a victory over Utah State in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl last season. However, to finish on a strong note again they will need to get over the late-season skid. In the finale against Kent State, Ohio's own mistakes hurt. Frank Solich's squad had two turnovers in the first quarter, both of which were returned for touchdowns. The Bobcats got the usual contributions from junior running back Beau Blankenship, whose 145 rushing yards gave him exactly 1,500 for the season, good enough to rank ninth nationally. Junior quarterback Tyler Tettleton was a steady presence under center. He had 16 touchdowns against only three interceptions and ran for four more scores. Ohio was invited to participate in the Independence Bowl after Louisiana Tech, which finished 9-3, did not immediately act on an invitation from bowl officials.
ABOUT LOUISIANA-MONROE (8-4, 6-2 Sun Belt, 8-4 ATS): Browning's primary target has been Brent Leonard, who ranks sixth nationally with 97 catches, 10 of which have gone for touchdowns. Leonard had 13 catches, including two on the game-winning drive in overtime, in the Warhawks' 23-17 victory over Florida International in the last game of the regular season. That was one of four overtime games for Louisiana-Monroe. They won three of them, including the opener against Arkansas, showing the late-game mettle that has made this the best Warhawks team since it joined what would become the FBS in 1994. This game will be played less than two hours away by car from the Warhawks' campus, making this a veritable home game for Todd Berry's team.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-28-12 03:36 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12047
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NCAAF
Friday, December 28
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Russell Athletic Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (-2.5, 41)
RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL STORYLINES
1. The two participants in the Russell Athletic Bowl, Rutgers and Virginia Tech, come into the game via different paths. The Scarlet Knights had a shot at the Big East crown and a BCS berth but lost their last game to Louisville, allowing the Cardinals to tie for the league title and take the BCS berth. Meanwhile, the Hokies are just happy to be in a bowl, needing wins in their last two contests to climb to 6-6 on the season and become bowl eligible.
2. These two teams aren't exactly strangers. Before Virginia Tech made the move to the ACC, both schools were in the Big East, where they met 12 times. The Hokies dominated the series 11-1, with the Scarlet Knights' victory coming in the first meeting in 1992.
3. Both teams run very balanced offenses, with Rutgers getting 63.1 percent of its yardage through the air, compared to Virginia Tech's 59.7 percent. The biggest difference is the Scarlet Knights had only six rushing touchdowns on the season compared to the 18 scores on the ground for the Hokies.
TV: 5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE: Virginia Tech opened as low as -2 and has been moved to -2.5. The total opened 40.5 and fell as low as 39.5 before coming back up to 41.
CONSENSUS: 52 percent of Covers Consensus plays are on Rutgers while the over/under consensus is split 50/50.
WEATHER: The forecast in Orlando is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 60s. Winds are expected to blow ESE at 6 mph.
TRENDS:
* Favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Scarlet Knights are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in Hokies' last five Bowl games.
* Under is 15-5 in Scarlet Knights' last 20 non-conference games.
ABOUT RUTGERS (9-3, 5-2 Big East, 7-5 ATS): The Scarlet Knights have won five straight bowl games, tied with Mississippi State for the nation's longest current streak. Coach Kyle Flood is looking to become the third Rutgers coach - and only first-year coach - in school history to win 10 or more games in a season. The Knights have been stingy on defense all year long, ranking fourth in the nation in scoring defense (14.3 points) and 14th in total defense (321.3 yards per game). Offensively, look for a lot of sophomore running back Jawan Jamison, who rushed for 1,054 yards and can help set up the Rutgers' passing game. Sophomore quarterback Gary Nova is solid, throwing for 2,566 yards in his first full season as a starter.
ABOUT VIRGINIA TECH (6-6, 4-4 ACC, 3-9 ATS): The Hokies struggled this year after a trip to the Sugar Bowl last season. Quarterback Logan Thomas is a big key for Virginia Tech's success as he ranks as the team's top passer (2,783 yards, 17 touchdowns) and rusher (526, nine). The Virginia Tech defense has been solid against the pass, allowing 204.9 yards per contest. Linebacker Jack Tyler has been a force this year, leading the team in total tackles (112) and tackles for loss (11) while recording 2.5 sacks and 13 quarterback hurries. Getting off to a fast start is important for the Hokies, but it hasn't been easy this year, with the team leading at halftime in only three of its contests.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-28-12 03:37 AM |
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