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Cnotes Novembers College Football Best Bets !
Hokies & Hurricanes Open November With Thursday Tilt
Virginia Tech Hokies at Miami Hurricanes
College Football Betting Preview
Date: 11/01/2012 at 7:30 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Va Tech -2, O/U NA
Television: ESPN
Virginia Tech Hokies: Frank Beamer and the Hokies (4-4 straight up, 2-6 against the spread) started the season with a lot of hope, but have since dropped three of their last four games and sit just 2-2 in the ACC ranks. Virginia Tech has had nearly two weeks to let a 38-17 loss at Clemson sink in, a game that was marred by four turnovers, including two interceptions by junior Logan Thomas who ranks 72nd in the country with a 127.6 QB rating (13 TD, 10 INT). Despite their pedestrian record, the Hokies still have a chance to make it to the conference championship if they can win out and get some help along the way. Beamer's bunch has had the Hurricanes' number recently with five wins in the last six meetings, also covering five of the clashes.
Miami Hurricanes: The 'Canes have dropped their last three games, including conference setbacks to North Carolina (18-14) and Florida State (33-20) after opening the ACC schedule with a 3-0 mark. Miami (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS) was also idle this past Saturday and will have to address the running game on both sides of the ball. The Hurricanes managed to gain just 29 yards on 21 carries vs. Florida State while surrendering more than 200 on the ground for the seventh straight game. Miami ranks next-to-last in the country (123rd) allowing nearly 250 yards per game rushing. A couple of key injury notes find QB Stephen Morris probable with a left-ankle sprain, an injury he suffered in the Oct. 13 loss to the Tar Heels, while RB Duke Johnson is also currently listed as probable with a foot injury. Miami's last three games have stayed 'under' the total, and four of the last five in this series played in Miami have also failed to reach the number.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-02-12 01:04 AM |
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CNOTES
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Virginia Tech at Miami
October 31, 2012
The switch to the ACC for the Thursday night matchups provided a dud last week with Clemson blowing out Wake Forest. This week's matchup has the potential to be a gem with two former national powers looking for a path to the ACC Coastal title. This rivalry provided an exciting game last season with fourth quarter lead changes and the winning score in the final minute and as the line suggests, Virginia Tech and Miami could be in line for another tight game. Here is a look at the teams and the history in this series.
Matchup: Virginia Tech Hokies at Miami Hurricanes
Venue: Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
Date: Thursday, November 1, 2012
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET - ESPN
Line: Virginia Tech -1 ½, Over/Under 57½
Last Meeting: 2011, Virginia Tech (-7½) 38-35, at Virginia Tech
The ACC Coastal division is wide open with Duke currently leading the way at 3-2. Virginia Tech and Miami are certainly in the mix as North Carolina is not eligible for the postseason this year. While the Atlantic champion, likely Florida State or Clemson, will be a heavy favorite over the Coastal champion in the conference championship game, the Coastal champion has won four of the past five title games. The winner of this game could be in the driver's seat for the division title.
This is the first of two back-to-back Thursday night affairs for a Virginia Tech team that has lost three of the last four games to fall to 4-4. The Hokies are 2-2 in conference play and only once in the eight years that Virginia Tech has been in the ACC has the team lost more than two conference games. Virginia Tech has also never finished worst than second in the Coastal division. Frank Beamer has not had a five-loss team since 2003 and he has not led a team at .500 or below since 1992. The Hokies will be solid favorites the final two weeks of the season against Boston College and Virginia, but they host Florida State next week, making this is a pretty critical game.
Expectations were pretty low for Miami this season with self-imposed and NCAA sanctions starting to grab hold of the once dominant program. Miami squeaked by Boston College in the opening week of the season and then was hammered by Kansas State, a loss that no longer looks so terrible. The Hurricanes are 3-2 in ACC play and 4-4 overall and while a few losses have been ugly, they have all come against highly regarded teams. Three of Miami's four losses have come against top 10 teams. Miami has lost three straight after starting the ACC season 3-0, but if they win Thursday, they have winnable road games to close the conference season, at Virginia, and at Duke.
The Hurricanes have posted solid offensive numbers led by a passing attack that is putting up 288 yards per game. Junior quarterback Stephen Morris has passed for 2,200 yards already this season, but he has completed just over 57 percent of his passes and only has 10 touchdowns against seven interceptions. Miami has not had a consistent rushing attack and part of that has been due to playing from behind in several games. The main issues for Miami have been on defense however. The 'Canes have allowed over 32 points per game on nearly 500 yards per game. Only one FBS opponent has been held to fewer than 32 points this season.
Virginia Tech is accustomed to featuring one of the top defenses in the nation, but this season the Hokies have very average numbers, allowing 370 yards per game including an alarming 167 yards per game on the ground. The numbers are far better than what Miami has done on defense, but the schedule has not been nearly as difficult. Virginia Tech is incredibly 0-4 away from home this season with the defense allowing 465 yards and 37 points per game in the non-home games. The Hokies have also lacked stable production on the ground with their leading rusher featuring just 338 yards on the season. Quarterback Logan Thomas is a duel-threat, but he has been turnover-prone and he is completing less than 54 percent of his passes and already with as many interceptions as he had all last season.
Thomas is a big, mobile quarterback and Miami had serious problems containing Collin Klein early in the year. Miami has been out-rushed in every game since the opening week, often by a significant margin, but this has been a team that can put together great scoring stretches, delivering wild runs to win against Georgia Tech and N.C. State earlier this season. The home team has won four of the last five meetings in this series, but Virginia Tech has owned the recent ATS history, including covering in the last five trips to Miami. Both teams have battled injuries on the offensive line and in the backfield which seems to be the root of many of the problems for both offenses.
Line Movement: Virginia Tech opened as a two-point road favorite. The line did briefly climb to -2 ½, but has since dropped to -1 ½. The total has elevated slightly from 57 to 57 ½.
Last Meeting: Last season in Blacksburg, Virginia Tech led most of the way after opening with a 14-0 lead. A touchdown seconds before halftime kept the margin at 14 points and that lead was cut to 10 entering a wild fourth quarter. The teams traded touchdowns in the first three minutes of the final quarter and Miami got within three a few minutes later. The Hurricanes broke a big run from now Miami Dolphin Lamar Miller to take the lead with less than three minutes to go. Logan Thomas and the Hokies had the last laugh with a 19-yard run to clinch the win with under a minute to go. Both teams had big days on offense, combining for over 1,000 total yards and Thomas had one of his best overall games. The star running backs for both teams are now in the NFL and former Miami quarterback Jacory Harris started for the Hurricanes.
Series History: This rivalry has moved from the Big East to the ACC, but Virginia Tech has dominated the recent meetings. Miami won seven straight in this series from the 1981 Peach Bowl to 1994, while Virginia Tech is 12-5 S/U since then, including winning S/U in each of the last three seasons and in seven of the last nine. The Hokies are also 17-7 ATS since 1981 in this series including covering in nine of the last 11, although Miami covered as an underdog last season.
Virginia Tech Historical Trends: Virginia Tech is 0-3 S/U and ATS in road games this season and 0-4 S/U & ATS in non-home games. That goes against a great recent run as a road performer for the Hokies, going 32-6 S/U and 28-10 ATS from 2004 through 2011. Since 1994, Virginia Tech is 40-23 ATS as a road favorite including going 21-8 ATS since 2004. The Hokies have been less successful as a very slight favorite, going just 17-14-1 ATS as a favorite of three or less, though still going 10-4-1 ATS in situations as a slight road favorite.
Miami, FL Historical Trends: It is no secret that the Miami program has hit hard times in the last decade or so. Miami is just 25-40 ATS at home since 2002. Miami is 5-2 as a home underdog in that span, however, including going 2-0 ATS in the home underdog role this season. Miami is still 49-20 S/U since 2002 at home, as this is still a team that does not often lose at home, rather often failing to live up to expectations as favorites.
There are two additional games Thursday night this week:
Eastern Michigan at Ohio 6:00 PM ET
Line: Ohio -17, Over/Under 57
The perfect start for Ohio was showing signs of decay with a couple of narrow wins against light competition, but last week the Bobcats were not able to dig out of an early hole, losing to Miami, Ohio. The Bobcats now are in a tough four-way race for the MAC East title and the schedule after this week will get more difficult. Ohio was held to a season-low 20 points last week and there will be opportunities to get back on track against an Eastern Michigan team that has allowed almost 38 points per game. This is a second straight road game for the Eagles and the short week will also present a challenging set-up. Statistically, Ohio has been a far better team on both sides of the ball, but the Bobcats have failed to cover in four straight games and the dreams of a perfect season have been dashed.
Middle Tennessee State at Western Kentucky 9:15 PM ET
Line: Western Kentucky -9, Over/Under 54
Western Kentucky bounced back from its first conference loss by sneaking by Florida International last week, but it was clearly a flat performance. The Hilltoppers will need help to get back in the Sun Belt race, as this is a team that needs a few more wins to ensure a bowl bid after being left out af 7-5 last season. Middle Tennessee State could also make a postseason run after going just 2-10 last year. The Blue Raiders have won three road games this season, but Western Kentucky has been the vastly superior defensive team in this matchup. The Hilltoppers are 7-1 ATS on the season, as these teams went to overtime last season with Middle Tennessee State losing despite a sizable yardage advantage.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-02-12 01:04 AM |
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CNOTES
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NCAAF
Week 10
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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 1
6:00 PM
EASTERN MICHIGAN vs. OHIO
Eastern Michigan is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Eastern Michigan is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Ohio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Ohio is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
7:30 PM
VIRGINIA TECH vs. MIAMI
Virginia Tech is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Virginia Tech's last 9 games when playing Miami
Miami is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Virginia Tech
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing at home against Virginia Tech
9:15 PM
MIDDLE TENNESSEE vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY
Middle Tennessee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Middle Tennessee's last 6 games on the road
Western Kentucky is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games at home
Western Kentucky is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
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NCAAF
Thursday, November 1
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Nine things bettors should know about EMU-Ohio
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Eastern Michigan at Ohio Bobcats (-17, 57.5)
Time: 6 p.m. ET on ESPNU
1. Ohio is No. 1 in the nation with only three turnovers lost. Eastern Michigan ranks 82 in the nation in that category with 17.
2. Temperatures are expected to be in the low-30s tomorrow night with winds at 11 mph. There’s a 20 percent chance of rain.
3. Ohio – the MAC East preseason favorite – has failed to cover its past four games, ranging as a favorite from 6.5 to 23.5 points.
4. Ohio is hinting it may mix up its playbook more than you might expect for a short week. They’re going to work in Ryan Boykin more at running back and have some designed QB runs. Head coach Frank Solich said it’s because teams have caught on to their option. Miami (Ohio) had six sacks last week in a 23-20 upset and held Ohio to 162 rushing yards, after averaging 210.4 per game on the season.
“We've got to get more production in terms of running more read-type of plays or more quarterback-design kind of runs, because right now they're zeroing in on our running back pretty well," Solich told reporters.
5. Eastern Michigan ranks 114th in the nation in scoring defense and owns the worst rushing defense in the country with 302.4 yards against per game.
6. Ohio ranks 106th in third-down efficiency this season. Solich says that’s due to having too many third-and-longs, which he hopes to correct by mixing things up Thursday.
7. Ohio’s Matt Weller has made 17-of-24 field goals including a 56-yarder last week. He ranks third in the nation in FG percentage.
8. EMU has been outscored 67-27 in the first quarter and shut out five times in the opening frame this season.
9. Ohio is 0-6 against the spread in its last six games against teams with a losing record at the time the Bobcats played them. New Mexico State is the only FBS team they’ve beaten by more than 17 points this season.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-02-12 01:06 AM |
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CNOTES
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NCAAF
Thursday, November 1
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Virginia Tech at Miami: What bettors need to know
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Virginia Tech Hokies at Miami Hurricanes (+1.5, 57)
Despite recent struggles for both teams, a berth in the ACC championship game may be on the line when Virginia Tech visits Miami on Thursday. Virginia Tech has dropped three of four games, but the Hokies have beaten Duke and Georgia Tech in the Coastal Division already and North Carolina is not eligible for postseason play.
The Hurricanes have lost three consecutive games after a strong start and still have destiny in their own hands. Both teams have been inconsistent running the ball, so the game will likely be in the hands of quarterbacks Logan Thomas of Virginia Tech and Miami’s Stephen Morris.
The Hokies won last year’s battle 38-35 and another shootout is expected with the Hurricanes allowing 32.4 points per game and the Hokies 24.0 – 35.3 in the last three.
TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE: Virginia Tech opened as high as -2.5 and has been bet down to -1.5. The total is set at 57 points.
WEATHER: The forecast for Sun Life Stadium is calling for partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the low 70s. Winds are expected to blow WSW at 8 mph.
ABOUT VIRGINIA TECH (4-4, 2-2 ACC, 2-6 ATS): The Hokies are off to their worst start through eight games since 1992 and are winless in three road games. Coach Frank Beamer said the effort has been there, but execution needs be more consistent. Thomas has been intercepted 10 times in the last six games and completes only 53.6 percent of his passes. The Hokies are in the lower half of the nation in rushing and J.C. Coleman has the only 100-yard effort. Virginia Tech has turned the ball over 15 times and allowed an average of 409.2 yards in the last six contests after allowing 254.5 in the first two with one turnover. The Hokies' Cody Journell has made 10 straight field goals.
ABOUT MIAMI (4-4, 3-2, 5-3 ATS): The Hurricanes lost to North Carolina and a pair of teams now ranked in the top seven – Notre Dame and Florida State – in the last three games. Miami comes in off 12 days of rest for the final stretch, where it can achieve its goals with improved defense. Miami has allowed almost 500 yards per contest, ranking 116th out of 120 teams in the nation, and is second to last in rushing defense (249.3). One problem is that opponents have possessed the ball an average of 10:14 more per game. Running backs Mike James and Duke Johnson - both with more than 400 yards - have the talent to help turn those numbers around.
TRENDS:
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Miami.
* Hokies are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings in Miami.
* Hokies are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Under is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.
* Underdog is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Road team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Miami linebacker Denzel Perryman has 31 tackles combined over the last three games.
2. Virginia Tech’s Kyshoen Jarrett is fourth in the nation in punt returns (18.1).
3. Miami leads the series 17-12, but Virginia Tech has won the last three meetings.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-02-12 01:07 AM |
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CNOTES
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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 10
Thursday's games
Ohio U lost for first time last week, but they'd been flirting with danger, as their last four wins vs I-A opponents were all by seven or less points. Bobcats are 2-6 vs spread last eight games as home favorites- they won last four games vs Eastern Michigan, but only one of those was in last five years (30-17 in '10). Eastern is 1-7 this year, 1-3 as road underdogs, losing road games by 11-38-16-21 points. Eagles are 17-20-1 as dogs on road, since 2007. MAC home favorites are 11-5 vs spread in conference play. Five of seven EMU games went over the total.
Virginia Tech/Miami are both down a little this year; Hokies lost three of last four games, are 0-4 away from home, allowing 37 ppg- since '05, VT is 17-9-1 as road favorites, but 0-2 this year. Miami is honoring former coach Jimmy Johnson at this game; what they need are a few of his old players. Hurricanes lost last three games, scoring 12.3 ppg; they're 3-4 vs I-A teams, and allowed 32-36-37 points in the three wins. Hurricanes are 7-3 as underdogs under Golden. ACC home underdogs are 6-5 vs spread in league play. Last three Miami games stayed under the total.
Middle Tennessee won three of last four games with Western Kentucky, but lost 36-33 at home to Hilltoppers LY; last two games in series were won by total of 4 points. Blue Raiders are erratic, beating Ga Tech by three TDs, but losing to a I-AA team and getting waxed 45-3 at Miss State. WKU won five of last six games, covered six of last seven; they're 2-5 as home favorites since moving up to I-A- they lost last home game in OT to UL-Monroe. MTSU allowed 442 rushing yards last two games, a red flag. Sun Belt home favorites are 3-12 vs spread in conference play.
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NCAAF
Short Sheet
Week 10
Thursday, November 1, 2012
Eastern Michigan at Ohio U, 6:00 ET ESPNU
Eastern Michigan: 12-4 Over off a conference game
Ohio U: 0-4 ATS vs. teams with losing records
Virginia Tech at Miami FL, 7:30 ET ESPN
Virginia Tech: 10-1 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less
Miami FL: 6-1 Under in November
Added Game:
Middle Tennessee State at Western Kentucky, 9:15 ET ESPNU
Mid Tenn State: 1-7 ATS in November
Western Kentucky: 16-4 ATS vs. conference opponents
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-02-12 01:08 AM |
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CNOTES
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Cal Small Home Favorite Against Washington Friday
Washington Huskies at California Golden Bears
College Football Betting Preview
Date: 11/02/2012, 9:00 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Cal -4½, O/U 52½
Television: ESPN2
Washington Huskies: Steve Sarkisian's biggest job this week is getting the Huskies (4-4 straight-up and against the spread) refocused and avoid a letdown after last Saturday's 20-17 upset of previously unbeaten Oregon State. The victory came as 3-point home 'dogs and snapped a 3-game skid for U-Dub who will be looking for its first road triumph of the season. Washington's offense remains one of the most impotent groups in the country averaging just 322.3 yards per game (108th nationally) and scoring just 20.6 ppg (105th). The defense has also proven to be vulnerable at times versus the run, surrendering nearly 260 yards per game on the ground in the three successive losses to Oregon, Southern Cal and Arizona, and will need to keep Cal's Bishop Sankey from having a big game. Washington's two Pac-12 road games have both gone "over," and four of the Huskies' last five trips to Berkeley have also skipped past the total.
California Golden Bears: It has been a trying year for Jeff Tedford and Cal (3-6 SU & ATS) who rides a 2-game losing streak into this matchup, and 3-game drought vs. the Huskies. The Bears appeared to be getting things on track with consecutive wins and covers vs. UCLA and at Washington State in mid-October, but have since followed that up with losses to Stanford (21-3) and at Utah (49-27) in games that were close to a pick 'em on the college football odds. Stanford completely shut California's ground attack down, and Utah rang up 21 points with defensive or special team scores while the Golden Bears' offense turned it over three times. Cal is among the nation's leaders in interceptions (12, tied for 13th most), but unfortunately also among the dregs in fumbling it away (10, 12th most). The Bears have not only lost the last three meetings with Washington, but also failed to cover the spread in those setbacks.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-03-12 12:02 AM |
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CNOTES
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Washington at California
November 2, 2012
This week’s edition of Friday Night Lights takes us to Berkeley, where California will take on Washington in a Pac-12 showdown.
As of early this morning, most sports books had Cal (3-6 straight up, 3-6 against the spread) favored by four with a total of 52. Bettors can take the Huskies to win outright for a plus-160 payout (risk $100 to win $160).
Washington (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) has had an up-and-down year highlighted by a pair of home wins over previously-unbeaten teams. The Huskies knocked off Stanford 17-13 as seven-point home underdogs in a Thursday night game on Sept. 27.
But Steve Sarkisian’s squad went on a three-game losing slide following the win over the Cardinal. UW snapped out of the three-game funk by shocking Oregon St. 20-17 as a three-point home underdog last weekend.
Bishop Sankey rushed 25 times for 92 yards and a pair of touchdowns, but UW’s defense was the catalyst in the victory as they intercepted OSU quarterback Sean Mannion four times.
Sandwiched between the wins over top-10 teams Stanford and Oregon St, the Huskies lost at Oregon (52-21) vs. Southern Cal (24-14) and at Arizona (52-17). They also got killed 41-3 at LSU in Week 2.
UW’s two other wins came at home vs. San Diego St. (21-12) and vs. Portland St. (52-13).
Promising junior quarterback Keith Rivers has not been able to match the numbers he posted in 2011 when he completed 66.0 percent of his passes with a 33/11 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In 2012, Rivers has completed only 60.1 percent of his throws with a mediocre 8/9 TD-INT ratio.
Sankey, the true sophomore running back, has emerged as the team’s most consistent offensive option. Sankey has rushed for 666 yards and nine TD, averaging 4.5 yards per carry.
Despite Sankey’s production, UW’s offense has been a colossal disappointment. The Huskies are ranked 105th in the country in scoring offense, averaging a pedestrian 20.6 points per game. The UW defense is ranked 68th in the nation, giving up 28.0 PPG.
Washington has been pathetic in three road games, losing by margins of 38, 35, and 31 points.
Cal head coach Jeff Tedord is on a boiling hot seat in his 11th season at the helm. Tedford won 43 games in his first five years from 2002-2006, including a pair of 10-win campaigns. However, the win totals have been 7, 9, 8, 5 and 7 the last five years and the Bears must win out just to be considered for a bowl game.
Cal has lost three of its five home games at its newly renovated stadium, limping to a 1-4 spread record in the process. Since beating UCLA 43-17 at home and winning 31-17 at Washington St, Cal has dropped back-to-back contests in blowout fashion.
Stanford went into Memorial Stadium and captured a 21-3 win as a one-point road ‘chalk.’ Then last week, Cal lost 49-27 at Utah as a 1 ½-point road underdog.
Cal actually out-yarded the Utes 441-344 in total offense, but Utah won the turnover battle 3-1. Zach Maynard threw for 288 yards and a pair of touchdowns compared to one interception.
For the season, Maynard has connected on 61.8 percent of his passes for 2,048 yards with a 12/9 TD-INT ratio. He also has three rushing scores.
Maynard’s favorite target has been Keenan Allen, who has 60 receptions for 739 yards and six touchdowns. However, Allen is ‘out’ tonight after sustaining a knee injury in last week’s loss at Utah.
C.J. Anderson and Isi Sofele split the rushing load for the Bears, combining for 989 rushing yards and six TDs.
In addition to Allen, Cal could be without three other starters. WR Bryce Treggs (21 catches, 217 yards, 1 TD), LB Chris McCain and CB Mark Anthony are all listed as ‘questionable.’
Cal has thrived as a home favorite during Tedford’s 11-year tenure, compiling a 32-20 spread record. Meanwhile, Washington has limped to a 6-11 spread record as a road ‘dog under Sarkisian.
Washington has won three in a row both SU and ATS in this head-to-head rivalry against Cal. The ‘under’ has cashed in each of those three contests, including last year’s 31-23 Washington victory as a one-point home favorite that had a total of 58.
The ‘under’ is 5-3 overall for the Bears, 3-1 in their home games. The ‘under’ is 5-2 overall for the Huskies, but the ‘over’ is 2-1 in their road assignments.
Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Washington is 5-1 ATS in the last six head-to-head meetings against Cal.
--Although the ‘under’ has cashed in the last three encounters, the ‘over’ hit in the six previous Cal-UW meetings.
--Iowa St. senior linebacker Jake Knott is out for the rest of the season after undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery Monday. Knott, who is the sixth-leading tackler in Cyclones football history, suffered a tear in his left shoulder in a 31-10 loss at Oklahoma St. two weeks ago. Following the diagnosis, Knott requested to play one last time before surgery. The doctors gave their blessing as long as Knott didn’t take any pain-killing injections. He didn’t and made 11 tackles and had one forced fumble in last week’s 35-21 win over Baylor. The Cyclones won’t be the same without their inspirational leader when they take the field Saturday vs. Oklahoma as 12-point home underdogs.
--Florida junior wide receiver Solomon Patton is out for the season after breaking the humerus bone in his left arm during a 17-9 loss vs. Georgia. Patton had only one reception for 17 yards this season but he rushed for 140 yards on 14 carries, mostly on jet sweeps after being put in motion in Brent Pease’s offense. Patton had a 54-yard run on a fake punt in a 31-17 win at Vanderbilt.
--Since 1995, Vanderbilt has been a road favorite vs. an SEC opponent just five times. The Commodores are 0-5 ATS in those games with only one outright win, an 11-10 victory at South Carolina in 1999. Vandy is favored by seven Saturday at Kentucky.
--With last night's 30-12 loss at Miami, Va. Tech fell to 4-5 on the season. The Hokies haven't lost five games in a season since going 8-5 in 2003.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-03-12 12:06 AM |
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CNOTES
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NCAAF
Friday, November 2
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What bettors need to know: Washington at California
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Washington at California (-4.5, 52)
Most teams don’t like short weeks, but California probably can’t wait to play again after last week’s embarrassing 49-27 loss at Utah. The Bears will look to rebound in a rare Friday game against visiting Washington, which knocked then-No. 7 Oregon State from the unbeaten ranks with a 20-17 win last Saturday. The Huskies are seeking their first road win this season after losing their first three by a combined 146-41. California needs to win its final three games to become bowl eligible, which is unlikely considering the Bears finish against Oregon and Oregon State. This figures to be a low-scoring contest since Washington hasn’t scored more than 21 points against any FBS opponent, while California ranks ninth in the conference in total offense.
TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN2.
LINE: California - 4.5, O/U 52.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-50s under partly cloudy skies. Winds will be light out of the west.
ABOUT WASHINGTON (4-4, 2-3 Pac-12): The inconsistent Huskies snapped a three-game losing streak with their second victory over a top 10 opponent last Saturday. Washington has been awful on the road, but its three losses have come to LSU, Oregon and Arizona. The offense has been surprisingly ineffective, with quarterback Keith Price throwing eight touchdowns and nine interceptions. Bishop Sankey leads the rushing attack with nine touchdowns, including two against Oregon State. One week after giving up 533 total yards in a 52-17 loss at Arizona, safety Sean Parker pulled in one of Washington’s four interceptions against the Beavers.
ABOUT CALIFORNIA (3-6, 2-4): The Bears have lost five of their last seven games, leading to rampant speculation about coach Jeff Tedford’s future. California has lost two straight games by a combined 70-30, and the Bears trailed Utah 42-6 in the third quarter last week. The team’s best playmaker appears to be tailback sophomore Brendan Bigelow, but Tedford seems reluctant to increase his workload. Bigelow is averaging 12.7 yards per carry and 13.8 yards per catch on only 33 touches, and recorded his third touchdown run of at least 50 yards this season against Utah. The Bears have allowed an average of 4.1 sacks per game, which ranks 118th in the country.
TRENDS:
* Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in California.
* Huskies are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Under is 7-1 in Golden Bears’ last eight home games.
* Golden Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last four November games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. According to the NCAA, Washington has played the second-toughest schedule in the nation. The Huskies’ first eight opponents are 47-17 while the remaining four are 9-24.
2. California K Vincenzo D’Amato has made his last nine field goal attempts after missing five of his first nine tries this season.
3. The Huskies hold a 50-38-4 edge in the all-time series, and have won three straight.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-03-12 12:11 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12006
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College football odds: Week 10 opening line report
With the exception of Alabama, Kansas State, Notre Dame and Oregon, it was a rough week to be undefeated.
Saturday began with 11 remaining undefeated teams and ended with six as Florida, Oregon State, Mississippi State, Rutgers and Ohio all suffered defeats. And for the moment, the race for the national title is unclear with Alabama, Oregon, Kansas State and Notre Dame in contention for the BCS championship game
Here’s a look at four key games in Week 10, with a thank you to Pete Korner, founder of The Sports Club, the premier oddsmaking service in Las Vegas:
Oregon (-6) at USC
Oregon is No. 2 for the sixth straight week after a dominating offensive performance in which it put up 56 points by the half on Colorado.
“They’re so powerful (Oregon), but this one is going to be tight game,” Korner says. “I would have liked to have gone a little higher on this game because the public’s attention span is one week.”
The Trojans suffered their second loss after being upset by Arizona on Saturday and will surely be fired up for this one.
Oklahoma State at Kansas State (-7)
Kansas State found the cracks in the Texas Tech defense and still found time to play its backups in a 55-24 win. Collin Klein continued his Heisman bid, passing for 233 yards, running for 83 and accounting for four touchdowns. Korner says his oddsmaking team varied between 6.5 and 7.5, so they decided to set the spread right in the middle at the key number of 7.
Pittsburgh at Notre Dame (-20)
Notre Dame was an 11-point dog at most books heading into Oklahoma on Saturday. The offense came alive and the defense was once again stellar as the Irish handled the Sooners, 30-7.
“Such an impressive win,” Korner says. “Notre Dame will have its backers as usual and I expect a significant amount of money to pour in on the Irish.”
Korner took the highest number suggested by his team this week because of Notre Dame's offensive outburst against a stout Oklahoma defense last week.
Pittsburgh picked up its first back-to-back wins over FBS teams since the final two games of 2010 with a convincing 47-17 win over Temple on Saturday.
Alabama (-7.5) at LSU
Alabama is No. 1 for the ninth straight week and is looking unstoppable after rolling over Mississippi State, 38-7. Korner’s team had Alabama as low as 3 and as high as 10-point favorites this week.
“I don’t want Alabama money,” Korner says. “LSU can pull a surprise…I wanted the extra hook.”
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-03-12 12:12 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12006
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Saturday, November 3
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PENN ST (5 - 3) at PURDUE (3 - 5) - 11/3/2012, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
PURDUE is 1-0 against the spread versus PENN ST over the last 3 seasons
PENN ST is 1-0 straight up against PURDUE over the last 3 seasons
0 of 0 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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AIR FORCE (5 - 3) at ARMY (1 - 7) - 11/3/2012, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
ARMY is 1-1 against the spread versus AIR FORCE over the last 3 seasons
AIR FORCE is 2-0 straight up against ARMY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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AKRON (1 - 8) at KENT ST (7 - 1) - 11/3/2012, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
AKRON is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992.
AKRON is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
AKRON is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
KENT ST is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games this season.
KENT ST is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in games played on turf this season.
KENT ST is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
KENT ST is 1-1 against the spread versus AKRON over the last 3 seasons
KENT ST is 2-0 straight up against AKRON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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VANDERBILT (4 - 4) at KENTUCKY (1 - 8) - 11/3/2012, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
KENTUCKY is 1-1 against the spread versus VANDERBILT over the last 3 seasons
KENTUCKY is 1-1 straight up against VANDERBILT over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MASSACHUSETTS (0 - 8) at N ILLINOIS (8 - 1) - 11/3/2012, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N ILLINOIS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games this season.
N ILLINOIS is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
N ILLINOIS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
N ILLINOIS is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
N ILLINOIS is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
N ILLINOIS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
N ILLINOIS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
N ILLINOIS is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
N ILLINOIS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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TEMPLE (3 - 4) at LOUISVILLE (8 - 0) - 11/3/2012, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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BOSTON COLLEGE (2 - 6) at WAKE FOREST (4 - 4) - 11/3/2012, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
WAKE FOREST is 1-1 against the spread versus BOSTON COLLEGE over the last 3 seasons
WAKE FOREST is 1-1 straight up against BOSTON COLLEGE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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HOUSTON (4 - 4) at E CAROLINA (5 - 4) - 11/3/2012, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) in road games in November games since 1992.
HOUSTON is 25-43 ATS (-22.3 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-0 against the spread versus E CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-0 straight up against E CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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IOWA (4 - 4) at INDIANA (3 - 5) - 11/3/2012, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IOWA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 2-0 against the spread versus IOWA over the last 3 seasons
IOWA is 2-0 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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GEORGIA TECH (3 - 5) at MARYLAND (4 - 4) - 11/3/2012, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA TECH is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as a road favorite of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992.
MARYLAND is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
MARYLAND is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
MARYLAND is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MARYLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus GEORGIA TECH over the last 3 seasons
GEORGIA TECH is 1-0 straight up against MARYLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CLEMSON (7 - 1) at DUKE (6 - 3) - 11/3/2012, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DUKE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DUKE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
CLEMSON is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CLEMSON is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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TULSA (7 - 1) at ARKANSAS (3 - 5) - 11/3/2012, 12:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARKANSAS is 57-36 ATS (+17.4 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ARKANSAS is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
TULSA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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NEW MEXICO ST (1 - 7) at AUBURN (1 - 7) - 11/3/2012, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW MEXICO ST is 33-54 ATS (-26.4 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-03-12 12:18 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12006
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STANFORD (6 - 2) at COLORADO (1 - 7) - 11/3/2012, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
STANFORD is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
STANFORD is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
STANFORD is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
STANFORD is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
STANFORD is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
STANFORD is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
STANFORD is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
COLORADO is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games this season.
COLORADO is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
COLORADO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
COLORADO is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
COLORADO is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
STANFORD is 1-0 against the spread versus COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
STANFORD is 1-0 straight up against COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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TEXAS ST (3 - 4) at UTAH ST (7 - 2) - 11/3/2012, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH ST is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games this season.
UTAH ST is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in games played on turf this season.
UTAH ST is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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ALABAMA (8 - 0) at LSU (7 - 1) - 11/3/2012, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ALABAMA is 54-35 ATS (+15.5 Units) in road games since 1992.
ALABAMA is 54-35 ATS (+15.5 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
ALABAMA is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in a road game where the total is 42 or less since 1992.
ALABAMA is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
ALABAMA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ALABAMA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
ALABAMA is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
ALABAMA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
LSU is 53-77 ATS (-31.7 Units) in home games since 1992.
LSU is 53-77 ATS (-31.7 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
LSU is 28-51 ATS (-28.1 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
LSU is 53-77 ATS (-31.7 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LSU is 10-30 ATS (-23.0 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.
LSU is 19-36 ATS (-20.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
LSU is 9-29 ATS (-22.9 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
LSU is 2-1 against the spread versus ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
LSU is 2-1 straight up against ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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COLORADO ST (2 - 6) at WYOMING (1 - 7) - 11/3/2012, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
COLORADO ST is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
COLORADO ST is 49-29 ATS (+17.1 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
WYOMING is 1-1 against the spread versus COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons
WYOMING is 2-0 straight up against COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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VIRGINIA (2 - 6) at NC STATE (5 - 3) - 11/3/2012, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VIRGINIA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in all games this season.
VIRGINIA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
VIRGINIA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
VIRGINIA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
NC STATE is 44-66 ATS (-28.6 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NC STATE is 1-0 against the spread versus VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons
NC STATE is 1-0 straight up against VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ARIZONA ST (5 - 3) at OREGON ST (6 - 1) - 11/3/2012, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OREGON ST is 96-69 ATS (+20.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
OREGON ST is 91-61 ATS (+23.9 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
OREGON ST is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.
OREGON ST is 24-8 ATS (+15.2 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
OREGON ST is 2-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA ST over the last 3 seasons
OREGON ST is 1-1 straight up against ARIZONA ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MISSOURI (4 - 4) at FLORIDA (7 - 1) - 11/3/2012, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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NEBRASKA (6 - 2) at MICHIGAN ST (5 - 4) - 11/3/2012, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN ST is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEBRASKA is 1-0 against the spread versus MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
NEBRASKA is 1-0 straight up against MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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TCU (5 - 3) at W VIRGINIA (5 - 2) - 11/3/2012, 3:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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ILLINOIS (2 - 6) at OHIO ST (9 - 0) - 11/3/2012, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ILLINOIS is 62-98 ATS (-45.8 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
OHIO ST is 146-107 ATS (+28.3 Units) in all games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 96-67 ATS (+22.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
OHIO ST is 134-94 ATS (+30.6 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
OHIO ST is 146-107 ATS (+28.3 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 121-88 ATS (+24.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
OHIO ST is 1-1 against the spread versus ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
OHIO ST is 2-0 straight up against ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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PITTSBURGH (4 - 4) at NOTRE DAME (8 - 0) - 11/3/2012, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 against the spread versus NOTRE DAME over the last 3 seasons
NOTRE DAME is 2-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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UTSA (5 - 3) at LOUISIANA TECH (7 - 1) - 11/3/2012, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOUISIANA TECH is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISIANA TECH is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISIANA TECH is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISIANA TECH is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISIANA TECH is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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SAN JOSE ST (6 - 2) at IDAHO (1 - 7) - 11/3/2012, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN JOSE ST is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) as a road favorite since 1992.
SAN JOSE ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 44-26 ATS (+15.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
IDAHO is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games this season.
IDAHO is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
IDAHO is 21-39 ATS (-21.9 Units) in home games since 1992.
IDAHO is 21-39 ATS (-21.9 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
IDAHO is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 since 1992.
IDAHO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
IDAHO is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
IDAHO is 33-57 ATS (-29.7 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
IDAHO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
IDAHO is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) in November games since 1992.
IDAHO is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
IDAHO is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
IDAHO is 1-1 against the spread versus SAN JOSE ST over the last 3 seasons
IDAHO is 2-0 straight up against SAN JOSE ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SMU (4 - 4) at UCF (6 - 2) - 11/3/2012, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
UCF is 1-1 against the spread versus SMU over the last 3 seasons
UCF is 1-1 straight up against SMU over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CONNECTICUT (3 - 5) at S FLORIDA (2 - 6) - 11/3/2012, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992.
S FLORIDA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.
S FLORIDA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
S FLORIDA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
S FLORIDA is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
S FLORIDA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
S FLORIDA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
S FLORIDA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CONNECTICUT is 2-0 against the spread versus S FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
CONNECTICUT is 2-0 straight up against S FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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W MICHIGAN (3 - 6) at C MICHIGAN (3 - 5) - 11/3/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
C MICHIGAN is 3-17 ATS (-15.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 3-17 ATS (-15.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
C MICHIGAN is 1-1 against the spread versus W MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
C MICHIGAN is 1-1 straight up against W MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-03-12 12:19 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12006
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MIAMI OHIO (4 - 4) at BUFFALO (1 - 7) - 11/3/2012, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI OHIO is 19-34 ATS (-18.4 Units) in road games in games played on turf since 1992.
BUFFALO is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
BUFFALO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI OHIO is 2-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI OHIO is 2-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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OLE MISS (5 - 3) at GEORGIA (7 - 1) - 11/3/2012, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OLE MISS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games this season.
OLE MISS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
OLE MISS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
OLE MISS is 34-16 ATS (+16.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GEORGIA is 15-30 ATS (-18.0 Units) in home games off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
GEORGIA is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
GEORGIA is 1-0 against the spread versus OLE MISS over the last 3 seasons
GEORGIA is 1-0 straight up against OLE MISS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SYRACUSE (4 - 4) at CINCINNATI (5 - 2) - 11/3/2012, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SYRACUSE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-1 against the spread versus SYRACUSE over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-1 straight up against SYRACUSE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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WASHINGTON ST (2 - 6) at UTAH (3 - 5) - 11/3/2012, 3:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON ST is 1-0 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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UAB (1 - 7) at SOUTHERN MISS (0 - 8) - 11/3/2012, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UAB is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
UAB is 2-0 against the spread versus SOUTHERN MISS over the last 3 seasons
UAB is 2-0 straight up against SOUTHERN MISS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MEMPHIS (1 - 7) at MARSHALL (3 - 5) - 11/3/2012, 2:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 2-0 against the spread versus MARSHALL over the last 3 seasons
MARSHALL is 2-0 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MICHIGAN (5 - 3) at MINNESOTA (5 - 3) - 11/3/2012, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MICHIGAN is 1-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
MICHIGAN is 1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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OKLAHOMA ST (5 - 2) at KANSAS ST (8 - 0) - 11/3/2012, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS ST is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS ST is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS ST is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS ST is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS ST is 47-29 ATS (+15.1 Units) in home games after playing a conference game since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA ST is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA ST is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA ST is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA ST is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA ST is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA ST is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS ST is 1-1 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA ST over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA ST is 2-0 straight up against KANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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TEXAS (6 - 2) at TEXAS TECH (6 - 2) - 11/3/2012, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS TECH is 48-30 ATS (+15.0 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 122-90 ATS (+23.0 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 92-62 ATS (+23.8 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 67-40 ATS (+23.0 Units) in home games since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 67-40 ATS (+23.0 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS is 2-0 against the spread versus TEXAS TECH over the last 3 seasons
TEXAS is 2-0 straight up against TEXAS TECH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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TEXAS A&M (6 - 2) at MISSISSIPPI ST (7 - 1) - 11/3/2012, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS A&M is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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KANSAS (1 - 7) at BAYLOR (3 - 4) - 11/3/2012, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS is 56-80 ATS (-32.0 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
KANSAS is 38-60 ATS (-28.0 Units) in road games since 1992.
KANSAS is 38-60 ATS (-28.0 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
KANSAS is 39-59 ATS (-25.9 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
KANSAS is 31-54 ATS (-28.4 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
KANSAS is 62-93 ATS (-40.3 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
KANSAS is 25-42 ATS (-21.2 Units) in November games since 1992.
KANSAS is 37-64 ATS (-33.4 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
KANSAS is 24-42 ATS (-22.2 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
BAYLOR is 64-90 ATS (-35.0 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
BAYLOR is 24-42 ATS (-22.2 Units) in November games since 1992.
BAYLOR is 23-42 ATS (-23.2 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
BAYLOR is 1-1 against the spread versus KANSAS over the last 3 seasons
BAYLOR is 2-0 straight up against KANSAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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OKLAHOMA (5 - 2) at IOWA ST (5 - 3) - 11/3/2012, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
IOWA ST is 1-1 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA is 2-0 straight up against IOWA ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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OREGON (8 - 0) at USC (6 - 2) - 11/3/2012, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
USC is 1-1 against the spread versus OREGON over the last 3 seasons
USC is 1-1 straight up against OREGON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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RICE (3 - 6) at TULANE (2 - 6) - 11/3/2012, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
RICE is 91-64 ATS (+20.6 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
RICE is 43-26 ATS (+14.4 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
TULANE is 70-100 ATS (-40.0 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
TULANE is 2-0 against the spread versus RICE over the last 3 seasons
TULANE is 1-1 straight up against RICE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-03-12 12:20 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12006
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HAWAII (1 - 6) at FRESNO ST (6 - 3) - 11/3/2012, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HAWAII is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HAWAII is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
HAWAII is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
HAWAII is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
HAWAII is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
HAWAII is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
HAWAII is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games this season.
FRESNO ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
FRESNO ST is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
FRESNO ST is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games played on turf this season.
FRESNO ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
FRESNO ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
FRESNO ST is 1-1 against the spread versus HAWAII over the last 3 seasons
FRESNO ST is 1-1 straight up against HAWAII over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ARIZONA (5 - 3) at UCLA (6 - 2) - 11/3/2012, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 67-95 ATS (-37.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
UCLA is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus UCLA over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 2-0 straight up against UCLA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NEW MEXICO (4 - 5) at UNLV (1 - 8) - 11/3/2012, 4:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
UNLV is 1-1 against the spread versus NEW MEXICO over the last 3 seasons
UNLV is 1-1 straight up against NEW MEXICO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SAN DIEGO ST (6 - 3) at BOISE ST (7 - 1) - 11/3/2012, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO ST is 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
BOISE ST is 107-64 ATS (+36.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 107-64 ATS (+36.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 86-54 ATS (+26.6 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
BOISE ST is 51-31 ATS (+16.9 Units) in home games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 51-31 ATS (+16.9 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 65-39 ATS (+22.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
BOISE ST is 74-49 ATS (+20.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
BOISE ST is 65-39 ATS (+22.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
BOISE ST is 68-33 ATS (+31.7 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
BOISE ST is 67-45 ATS (+17.5 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
BOISE ST is 34-15 ATS (+17.5 Units) in November games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 63-29 ATS (+31.1 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
BOISE ST is 74-42 ATS (+27.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
BOISE ST is 38-16 ATS (+20.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
BOISE ST is 33-15 ATS (+16.5 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO ST is 1-0 against the spread versus BOISE ST over the last 3 seasons
BOISE ST is 1-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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FLA ATLANTIC (2 - 6) at NAVY (5 - 3) - 11/3/2012, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLA ATLANTIC is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in November games since 1992.
FLA ATLANTIC is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
NAVY is 127-95 ATS (+22.5 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 127-95 ATS (+22.5 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 118-87 ATS (+22.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
NAVY is 83-54 ATS (+23.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NAVY is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NAVY is 50-31 ATS (+15.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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FLA INTERNATIONAL (1 - 8) at S ALABAMA (2 - 6) - 11/3/2012, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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TROY (4 - 4) at TENNESSEE (3 - 5) - 11/3/2012, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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ARKANSAS ST (5 - 3) at NORTH TEXAS (3 - 5) - 11/3/2012, 5:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
ARKANSAS ST is 2-0 against the spread versus NORTH TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
ARKANSAS ST is 2-0 straight up against NORTH TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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LA LAFAYETTE (4 - 3) at LA MONROE (6 - 2) - 11/3/2012, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAFAYETTE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAFAYETTE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAFAYETTE is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAFAYETTE is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAFAYETTE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAFAYETTE is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAFAYETTE is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games in games played on turf since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
LA MONROE is 1-1 against the spread versus LA LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons
LA LAFAYETTE is 2-0 straight up against LA MONROE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-03-12 12:21 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12006
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Where the action is: NCAAF mid-week lines moves
Week 10 of the college football season is the biggest, baddest slate of games bettors will get until bowl season.
With so much attention on the numerous marquee matchups this Saturday, we seek the wise words John Avello, sportsbook director at the Wynn Las Vegas, to find out how bettors are treating those games and where the odds could end up at kickoff.
Texas Longhorns at Texas Tech Red Raiders – Open: Texas Tech -6.5, Move: -7.5, Move: -7
The Red Raiders are giving a near touchdown to their state rivals in Lubbock Saturday and are favorites versus Texas for the first time since 2004.
Avello says bettors are losing faith in the Longhorns, normally a very popular play, after some less-than-impressive showings in recent games.
“Texas usually gets a lot of respect,” Avello, who sees the spread staying at -7, told Covers. “But you go to Kansas and struggle, you go to Oklahoma and get beat up, you lose to West Virginia. There is starting to be a lack of respect for Texas.”
Oregon Ducks at USC Trojans – Open: USC +5.5, Move: +8
This game was supposed to decide who was going to play in the national championship, but USC has stumbled along the way, taking the shine off this premier Pac-12 contest.
Avello, who is currently dealing Oregon -7, is surprised that the spread has climbed so quickly. He thought the public bettors, who love USC week to week, would be jumping at the chance to play the Trojans as a rare dog against a Ducks squad that may not be as good as its record suggests.
“Oregon is playing great, but they’re not playing anybody,” says Avello. “They haven’t had a tough game all year.”
Alabama Crimson Tide at LSU Tigers – Open: LSU +6.5, Move: +9.5
The rematch of last year’s national title game has also lost some of its luster after LSU fell to Florida and posted some disappointing efforts this season.
Avello is shocked by how high this spread has gone and says that while Alabama is clearly the best team in the country, bettors are discounting just how good the Tigers’ home-field advantage at Death Valley really is. They have the longest home winning streak in the nation at 22 games.
“(Alabama is) going to a home field that rarely loses,” he says. “It’s a big number for down there. (LSU’s) home field is worth about four or five points. So, what you’re saying is that on a neutral field Alabama would be two-touchdown favorites? I don’t know about that.”
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Kansas State Wildcats – Open: KSU -7, Move: -9.5
The Wildcats have been a popular pick with public and sharp bettors in recent weeks, moving off the key number and near another heading into what looks like a shootout with Oklahoma State – the top offensive team in the land.
However, Avello thinks Big 12 bettors will see more defense than expected in this game. The Cowboys have proven they can hold down opponents, limiting their last three foes to a total of just 38 points, an average of 12.6 a game. Online books have posted a total of 66 points for this contest.
“Last year, they had a shootout and combined for close to 100 points (OSU won 52-45) and the history has been a lot of ‘fire ‘em up, shoot ‘em out’ games,” says Avello. “But there might be more defense than you expect Saturday.”
Texas A&M Aggies at Mississippi State Bulldogs – Open: +1.5, Move: +6.5
Of all the line moves on the Week 10 board, this one stumps Avello the most. The Bulldogs, coming off a hard-fought loss at Alabama, have moved from slight home dogs to near-touchdown pups when they welcome Texas A&M to Davis Wade Stadium.
“I don’t agree with this move at all,” says Avello, who opened MSU as 1.5-point home underdogs.
The Aggies have yet to be tested on the road, picking up wins at SMU, Ole Miss and, most recently, Auburn in a 63-21 thrashing last weekend. Avello has been very impressed with Mississippi State and expects a closer game than what the line moves indicates.
“You can’t hold a loss to Alabama against them,” he says. “(Mississippi State) is going to test this Texas A&M team for sure. Texas A&M is a good team year in and year out, and they’re OK on the road. But they don’t always go on the road and dominate and they’ve only had a few weak road games this year.”
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-03-12 12:24 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12006
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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 10
First Post
Saturday's games
Top games
Cincinnati be glad to get home after losing last two weeks on road, allowing 29-34 points, their first true road games of season; Bearcats won six of its last seven games with Syracuse, though Orangemen won 31-7 in last visit here. UC covered six of last eight games as a home favorite. Syracuse won its last two games, scoring 40-37 points; they won last week at USF after being down 23-3 at half, but it was their first cover in last six tries as a road underdog. Big East home favorites are 5-7 vs spread in conference play. Three of last four Cincinnati games went over the total.
Curious to see how Mississippi State reacts after getting spanked by Alabama last week, its first loss of year; Bulldogs are 8-4 vs spread in last 12 tries as home favorite- they’re 8-9 vs spread in game following their last 17 losses. Six of State’s last seven games stayed under total. Since 2007, A&M is 9-14-1 vs spread as an underdog, but they’re 4-0 on road this year behind freshman QB Manziel- they’re -10 in turnovers last four games. Six of State’s seven wins are by 10+ points. Last time these teams met was snowy bowl game in Shreveport 12 years ago (MSU won 43-41); they didn’t have snow plows at the field.
Trap game for Oklahoma team after 30-13 home loss to Notre Dame last week, visiting spunky Iowa State squad they’ve beaten last two years by combined score of 78-6. Over last decade, Sooners are 16-6 vs spread in game following a loss, but they’re just 6-9 in last 15 tries as road favorites, 1-2 this year. OU defense is sagging; foes converted 19 of last 39 3rd down tries. Cyclones covered 11 of last 16 tries as an underdog; since ’03, they’re 17-13 as an underdog in Ames. Big X underdogs are 13-11 vs spread in league play, 5-5 at home. Under is 4-0-1 in ISU’s last five games, 1-3 in Oklahoma’s last four.
West Virginia had bye last week, after getting smoked 49-14/55-14 in previous two games; now TCU comes in having lost three of last four games, with backup (freshman) QB under center. Horned Frogs turned ball over 11 times in last four games, converted just 7 of last 31 on 3rd down, but Mountaineers allowed 45+ points in each of last four games, just been trying to outscore teams. TCU lost last two games 56-53ot/36-14, so both sides struggling here. West Virginia is 3-6 vs spread in last nine games as home favorite. Big X home favorites are 6-8 against the spread.
Sandwich game for Penn State, off last week’s loss to Ohio, and with Nebraska on deck; Lions won five in row, nine of last 11 games vs Purdue, winning 20-6/12-0 in last two visits here, but they lost at home last week, ending 5-game win streak- since ’02, they’re 21-18 vs spread in game following a loss. Lions covered 10 of last 13 games as road favorites and are 2-1 on road this year, with wins by 28-24 points. Purdue lost last four games, allowing 284 rushing yards, 38.8 ppg; they’re 2-1 as underdog this year, 5-4-1 as home dogs under Hope. Big Dozen home underdogs are 4-2 against the spread.
Underdogs covered last five Michigan State games, all of which were decided by 4 or less points, with two of last three going to OT; Spartans scored 16-10-16 points in last three games, all of which were decided by 3 or less points- they’re 2-0 this year as underdogs, 3-2-1 as home dogs under Dantonio. Nebraska is 9-6-1 as road favorite under Pelini, 0-2 this year; they’ve lost two of three on road, with only win 29-28 comeback win at Northwestern. Huskers turned ball over 18 times (-8) in their last six games. State has only two takeaways in its last four games. Under is 7-1-1 in Michigan State games this season.
Texas won four of last five games vs Texas Tech, with all four wins by 10+ points; they drubbed Red Raiders 52-20 in Austin LY, but Longhorns are just 2-2 in last four games (0-4 vs spread), beating mediocre Baylor/Kansas 56-50/21-17 last two weeks, after they gave up 111 points in losses to West Virginia/Oklahoma. Tech allowed 53/55 points in splitting pair of road games last two weeks, third time in four weeks they’ve allowed 41+ points; Red Raiders are 4-5 as home favorites under Tuberville. Over last decade, Longhorns are 5-2 as road underdogs. Three of Tech’s last four games went over.
Alabama is a powerful team; 33-14 is closest game they’ve played this year, but that could work against them here, if LSU can keep it close and get 1st-year QB Mettenberger to hit couple plays. Tigers won last two games by total of 7 points, so they’re used to tense moments. Favorites are 5-3-2 vs spread in last 10 Alabama-LSU games; teams met twice LY, with LSU winning 9-6 on road, then losing 21-0 in national title on game on neutral field. Crimson Tide lost four of last six visits here, where Saban used to be HC before going to NFL. LSU is underdog for first time this year; they’re 7-9 as dogs under Miles- over last decade, they’re 1-3 as home dogs. Bama won its four road games this year by combined score of 179-37.
Kansas State is unbeaten, but over last five years they’re 0-3 vs Oklahoma State, losing 41-39/24-14/52-45; Weeden passed for 502 yards in LY’s barnburner in Stillwater, but he’s in NFL now. Cowboys are 7-11 as road underdogs under Gundy, but 2-0 over last 2.5 years; they allowed 59-41 points in two losses this year, but allowed 14-10-14 points in winning last three games- opponents converted just 12 of last 39 on 3rd down, while K-State converted 20 of last 37 on 3rd down. Snyder is 9-6 in last 15 games as home favorite; they’re +16 in turnovers, which is problem is OSU doesn’t turn ball over (seven TO’s in last five games).
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-03-12 12:26 AM |
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