Hey guys,

I like to share some info that I found while looking at different systems in MLB. We all know that favorites win a lot in MLB but where there is value is in underdogs.


Go for the home team in the first game of a series if they are coming off a series win or tie versus a team off a straight up loss as well as a series loss. This should be later than game #20 and the home team must either be an underdog or not a favorite more than -130. Our team must be coming into this series putting up good offensive numbers so they must have scored 5 or more runs in their previous game.

Past Years Results:
Code:
Year Record Units
2004: 15-12 +3.80
2003: 21-12 +10.95
2002: 21-10 +14.05
2001: 14-11 +2.85
2000: 12-7 +4.85
1999: 22-10 +14.80

Analysis:

The home field advantage in baseball is not as easy to define as it is in other sports. Home field advantage is actually strongest during the first game of a series. If our home team is putting up good offensive numbers they will be coming into the series with a great deal of confidence and will look to extend their streak. Since their opponent is coming off a series loss and has to travel to an opponent's city, they are at a small disadvantage physically and mentally.



Go for a home underdog in a division rivalry game with a spread less than 200 that has a home win percentage greater than 55% going against an opponent that has a losing road record. The opponent must have won less than 6 games L10.

Past Years Results:
Code:
Year Record Units
1999: 5-5 +1.20
2000: 9-4 +6.90
2001: 13-9 +6.30
2002: 11-6 +6.30
2003: 7-4 +4.15
Total: 45-28 +24.85

Average Margin of Victory: 0.32 Runs
Analysis:

Blindly betting on home underdogs in a division rivalry game will have won you money almost every year. This is one angle that narrows down the field to a smaller number of games to bet on.



Go for a home underdog in a division rivalry game coming off a loss that has won fewer than 6 games L10 but going against an opponent with a below 40% road record.

Past Years Results:
Code:
Year Record Units
1999: 7-2 +6.55
2000: 6-4 +2.95
2001: 6-6 +0.90
2002: 8-8 +1.95
2003: 8-12 -1.55
Total: 35-32 +10.80

Average Margin of Victory: 0.27 Runs
Analysis:

Blindly betting on home underdogs in a division rivalry game will have won you money almost every year. This is one angle that narrows down the field to a smaller number of games to bet on.



Go for a home underdog in a division rivalry game that has more than 2 home wins than home losses and having won 6+ games L10 and at least won 4 home games L10 home games.

Past Years Results:
Code:
Year Record Units
1999: 12-11 +3.10
2000: 19-12 +11.15
2001: 29-19 +15.30
2002: 26-18 +13.00
2003: 20-12 +11.85
Total: 106-72 +54.40

Average Margin of Victory: 0.42 Runs



Analysis:

Blindly betting on home underdogs in a division rivalry game will have won you money almost every year. This is one angle that narrows down the field to a smaller number of games to bet on.


Go for a home dog in a division rivalry game with a spread less than 200, that has won 6+ games L10 with a home winning percentage greater than 55% and going against an opponent with a less than 50% road record.

Past Years Results:
Code:
Year Record Units
1999: 5-2 +4.10
2000: 4-3 +1.40
2001: 13-8 +7.70
2002: 9-4 +5.85
2003: 9-3 +7.80
Total: 40-20 +26.85

Average Margin of Victory: 0.73 Runs
Analysis:

Blindly betting on home underdogs in a division rivalry game will have won you money almost every year. This is one angle that narrows down the field to a smaller number of games to bet on.


Go for a home underdog in a division rivalry game that has won 6+ games L10 that has 2 more home wins than home losses.

Past Years Results:
Code:
Year Record Units
1999: 13-11 +4.40
2000: 19-12 +11.15
2001: 30-19 +16.55
2002: 26-18 +13.00
2003: 20-12 +11.85
Total: 108-72 +56.95

Average Margin of Victory: 0.43 Runs

Analysis:

Blindly betting on home underdogs in a division rivalry game will have won you money almost every year. This is one angle that narrows down the field to a smaller number of games to bet on. Our home underdog is an above average home team which basically narrows down poor home teams. We also constrain our system to teams that are on a roll with 6+ wins. Momentum is important and we have a very undervalued team here.



Go for any road underdog off a loss in an Interleague Game that has scored an average of 4.5 or more runs per game L5 and has won 5 or more games L10.

Past Years Results:
Code:
Year Record Units
1999: 5-2 +3.95
2000: 8-5 +6.31
2001: 4-3 +2.40
2002: 3-3 +1.70
2003: 5-5 +2.65
Total: 25-18 +17.01

Average Margin of Victory: 1.07 Runs
Analysis:

This is a total momentum play. A team was play strong but are coming off a loss. History contends that they keep up their momentum more often than not just based on their great offensive stats.



Go for a road underdog with a better than 47% road winning percentage that has won 12+ games L20 going against a team with a below 53% home winning percentage. Our teams are division rivals and it is not the first game of the series.

Past Years Results:
Code:
Year Record Units
1999: 1-2 -1.00
2000: 10-6 +7.35
2001: 7-1 +7.00
2002: 8-4 +6.05
2003: 5-3 +3.60
Total: 31-16 +23.00

Average Margin of Victory: 1.62 Runs
Analysis:

Baseball is all about momentum.



Go for a road underdog with a better than 47% road winning percentage that has won 12+ games L20 going against a team with a below 53% home winning percentage and that won fewer than 4 home games L10.

Past Years Results:
Code:
Year Record Units
1999: 5-6 +0.55
2000: 3-4 -0.80
2001: 15-3 +14.85
2002: 8-6 +5.10
2003: 4-2 +3.50
Total: 35-21 +23.20

Average Margin of Victory: 0.91 Runs



Go for above 500 road underdog with a spread of 135 or greater that has won 6+ games L10, going against an opponent with a home winning percentage less than 60% and that has won fewer than 5 games L10. This must not be an interleague game.

Past Years Results:
Code:
Year Record Units
1999: 7-8 +4.40
2000: 9-8 +5.35
2001: 11-6 +10.98
2002: 10-7 +8.50
2003: 9-8 +5.80
Total: 46-37 +35.03

Average Margin of Victory: 0.46 Runs
Analysis:

If you have a spread of +135 or more, that means that to break-even you would only have to win 42% or less of the time. This comes out to be 69 games on the season. There are reasons why our team is above 500. For a team to be +135, that must mean Joe Public loves the opposing pitcher but what they do not realize is that this day and age, starting pitchers only pitch about 6 innings. This leaves 33% of any game to the bullpen.



Go for a small home favorite that has won 6+ home games in last 10 attempts and has 3 or more home wins than losses and going against an above 500 team that has won less than 6 road games in last 10 attempts. The opponent must have less than 6 wins L10, have a below 500 road record. This must not be the first game of the series.

Past Years Results:
Code:
Year Record Units
1999: 5-1 +3.75
2000: 12-6 +5.00
2001: 5-3 +1.45
2002: 4-3 +0.55
2003: 12-6 +5.20
Total: 38-19 +15.95

Average Margin of Victory: 1.07 Runs
Analysis:

Another type of a contrarion play here. The team we are going against is an above 500 team but not only are they below 500 on the road, but are 500 or worse L10 games, and 500 or worse L10 road games. Our team is not only decent at home but are also playing well.



Go for a home favorite with a spread between -110 and -130 inclusive that has won 6+ games L10 coming off a loss in which they scored 5 or fewer runs. They must have won 3+ games L7 Home Games while the opponent has only won 5 or fewer games L10.

Past Years Results:
Code:
Year Record Units
1999: 7-5 +1.25
2000: 14-7 +5.90
2001: 15-8 +5.05
2002: 8-4 +3.25
2003: 10-1 +8.70
Total: 54-25 +24.15

Average Margin of Victory: 0.73 Runs
Analysis:

If your spread is less than -110 then you should be the winner. The team in this situation will look to their home field advantage to pick them up after their loss. It is easy to assume they will bounce back considering that they have been playing well coming into the game.



Go for a team that:
# Is a road favorite of -130 or less.
# Has a winning record.
# Has a winning road record or has won 3 or more road games in their past 5 tries.
# Coming off a loss versus the team it is currently facing.
# Has won 5 or more games in their past 10.
# and is playing an opponent that: Has a home winning percentage less than 60%.
# Is a non-divisional opponent.
# has won 5 or fewer games in their past 10.

Past 7 Years Results:
Code:
Year Record Percentage Units
1999: 16-6 0.727273 +8.85
2000: 10-5 0.666667 +4.10
2001: 11-3 0.785714 +7.45
2002: 5-3 0.625000 +1.60
2003: 5-2 0.714286 +2.55
2004: 9-5 0.642857 +3.20
2005: 6-2 0.750000 +3.58
Total: 62-26 0.704505 +31.33

Average Margin of Victory: 1.97 Runs



Go for a road favorite that has won 6+ road games L10 going against an opponent that has won 3 or less home games L5 and won 7 or less home games L15. This ought to be the first game of the series in which the opponent was coming off a road game.

Past Years Results:
Code:
Year Record Units
1999: 5-1 +3.75
2000: 8-3 +4.65
2001: 7-4 +2.45
2002: 6-2 +3.65
2003: 3-1 +1.90
Total: 29-11 +16.40

Average Margin of Victory: 2.08 Runs
Analysis:

Here we see ourselves going against the home team in the first game of a series but only because our road team is playing well on the road and is coming off a road game. If they are coming off a home game, there is always the comfort factor of leaving home and having to travel. Well, our team has already been on the road so there will be no need to adjust. They will just continue to play well.



Go for the road favorite with a spread no more than -130 in an interleague game in which it is not the first game of the series coming off a loss and averaging greater than 4.5 runs per game L5 versus an opponent that has not scored more than 7 runs in its previous game.

Past Years Results:
Code:
Year Record Units
1999: 6-0 +6.00
2000: 2-1 +0.95
2001: 4-1 +2.95
2002: 3-0 +3.00
2003: 4-2 +1.60
Total: 19-4 +14.50

Average Margin of Victory: 3.09 Runs
Analysis:

Here we see ourselves purposely not going against the home team in the first game of the series. We like the road favorite because we see them scoring well, motivated off a loss.



Go for an above 500 road favorite in a non-division rivalry game with spread not more than -130 coming off a loss versus the same team it is currently facing. That must have 5+ wins L10. Our road record must either be above 50% or if it is not, must have won 3 or more road games L5. Opponent must not have a home winning percentage greater than 60%. Opponent must not have more than 5 wins L10.
Past Years Results:
Code:
Year Record Units
1999: 16-6 +8.85
2000: 10-6 +3.05
2001: 11-3 +7.35
2002: 5-3 +1.60
2003: 5-2 +2.55
Total: 47-20 +23.40

Average Margin of Victory: 1.96 Runs


Go for any home team with a better than 50% home record in the first game of a series if they are more than 10 games below 500 and going up against a team that has won less than 6 games L10.

Past Years Results:
Code:
Year Record Units
1999: 4-1 +2.70
2000: 8-5 +4.15
2001: 2-0 +2.25
2002: 14-5 +13.35
2003: 5-2 +4.05
Total: 33-13 +26.50

Average Margin of Victory: 1.46 Runs
Analysis:

This is a contrarion play because we are going for a team that is more than 10 games below 500. Joe public does not want to bet on a team that is so bad. But what the don't realize is that their good home record coupled with the added home field advantage of the first game of a series, this makes a decent play.



Go for a road team off of two consecutive one run losses that scored 3+ runs its previous game with a spread no more than -130 in the second or later game of the series.

Past Years Results:
Code:
Year Record Units
1999: 16-16 +3.60
2000: 13-20 -2.85
2001: 17-14 +6.88
2002: 16-15 +7.71
2003: 14-11 +9.90
Total: 76-76 +25.24

Average Margin of Victory: 0.00 Runs
Analysis:

Go with the motivated team off of two consecutive one run losses. They will do all the little things necessary to win. They will steal bases and move runners over. It is essential to note that the team scored 3 or more runs in its previous game so that we can weed out the teams that are struggling offensively. Pitchers will see that their team had been scoring runs and will bring their 'A' game.



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Analyzing the Run Line

Many of you love betting the Run Line, especially with the heavy favorites because of the reduced chalk. In fact, you can turn a -150 Money Line Favorite into a Run Line Underdog. The reduced juice keeps your risk low.

The oddsmakers use the standard fact that 70% of Winners beat the Run Line to calculate the Run Line odds.

The first thing I wanted to test was how teams with a certain money line odds performed on the Run Line. Is there a correlation between the odds a team has and how it performs against the run line.

Probability of winning by more than 1 run given that the team wins the game straight up.
Code:
League Wide: 72.5%
+200 or more: 70.2%
+190s: 77.0%
+180s: 76.4%
+170s: 67.4%
+160s: 75.3%
+150s: 72.9%
+140s: 70.9%
+130s: 73.5%
+120s: 68.0%
+110s: 72.4%
+100s: 72.9%
-100s: 68.9%
-110s: 70.6%
-120s: 72.4%
-130s: 72.4%
-140s: 74.7%
-150s: 74.5%
-160s: 75.3%
-170s: 71.9%
-180s: 70.8%
-190s: 77.5%
-200s: 76.2%

Favorites that are -120 or better beat the runline at a higher percentage than the league average (73.6%). In fact, this indicates that betting the runline on these teams will generally be better than betting the money line. Turn these favorites into a dog.

Nevertheless, a more striking point worth noting is the Home-Away Dynamics of the Run Line.

Probability of winning by more than 1 run given that the team wins the game straight up.
Code:
Home Teams: 68.5%
Road Teams: 77.1%
Home Favorites: 69.7%
Road Favorites: 79.1%
Road Favorites better than -120: 80.1%

Analyzing it further, we see that Road Teams in the Money Line Odds range of better than -120 specified in our earlier table beat the Run Line 80% of the time when conditioned on winning the game. There is a 10% difference in covering the Run Line for the Road Team than for the Home Team.

The reason for this is quite simple: Home Teams that win the game do not have to bat in the bottom of the 9th. Road teams that win the game still bat in the Top of the 9th. That means the Road winner has 12.5% more at-bats than the corresponding home favorite.

Let us statistically model this scenario to show us how it works. During any half inning, the expected value of runs scored is 0.5. This means that the expected value of number of half innings necessary to score 1 full run would be approximately every 2 half innings. The home teams beats the Run Line with a 70% probability. This means that for every 100 games, they are ahead by more than 1 run going into bottom of the 9th 70 times and only ahead by 1 run going into the bottom half of the 9th 30 times. Since the home team wins, there is no need to bat in the 9th. Conversely, for the road team, they will be batting all 100 of those times. Of those 30 times, the expected number of games for them to score an extra run necessary to beat the run line is 15. This is an increase of 15%!! Reality only shows a 10% improvement and this can be explained by the fact that although the average number of runs per half innings is 0.5. They will not be spreading 1 run every 2 games. They will be held scoreless about 66% of the time and for the remaining 33% of the time score 1 or more runs.

We will be revisiting this issue later when dealing with Totals. It just so turns out that when Road Teams win the game, the average total score is about 0.4 higher than if the home team won.



Home Teams in the Second Game of a Double-Header

There are many sayings in baseball that are very good go against angles. With the notoriety of the ATS records in the NBA and NFL, it is easy to determine if a betting proposition is bad or good.

In baseball, since we deal with the money line, it is hard to determine if a system is good or not based purely on records. One example that I will give you is about the double header in baseball. Most sports handicapers and lay baseball fans will tell you that it is tough for a team to win both games of a double header. I have noticed that after the first game of a double header, more action gets placed on the loser of Game 1 in the second game. Bettors are applying this theory and trying to win money out of it.

It was not until now that I decided to run the numbers and see if this saying is in fact true. It is not. Teams that win Game 1 come out in Game 2 having a 109-92 record +5.5 units. Blindly betting for the winner of game 1 was money over the past 7 seasons. This is exactly what the oddsmakers want knowing that the majority of the betting action would be going towards the other team.

I ran the numbers and compared whether or not the winner was the home team or the road team and found that if they were a home team, they were 67-44 +10 units. This makes perfect sense to me now though, considering the fact that the hometown stadium saw their team win at home in Game 1 keeps them fired up and excited for Game 2. This extra bit of a home field advantage coupled with additional betting action on the opposite side provides the building blocks of a good system.

If my home field advantage angle is true then the more runs scored by the Game 1 winner would correlate to a better winning percentage in Game 2 because fans are excited by seeing runs scored. If our home team scored 7+ runs in their previous game, they ended up 38-18 +14 units over the past 7 seasons. The makings of our first great double header betting system.

If it is +14 units when the team scores so many runs, then it is negative units otherwise. Seeing an angle like this makes us have to go back to square one. Let us say we want to bet on the loser of game 1 but their opponent scored fewer than 5 runs. We would have a system that was 27-23 +8 units. It is barely profitable when our team is playing on the road but at home it improves to 13-7 +7 units, the makings of our second great double header betting system.



Betting on Baseball Road Teams in the Second Game of a Doubleheader

We like focusing on the exclusivity principle when finding successful baseball betting systems. For example, if you read the "Home Teams in the Second Game of a Double-Header" article, you would have seen 2 betting systems that combined for a 51-25 +21 units record. Now that we are looking to bet on the road teams in the second game of a double header, it would make sense to exclude these 76 games from our analysis since we already know that those 76 games are more prone to land the home team's way.

The reason to do this is to make it far easier to find betting systems that will help us profit on the road teams. Betting on every road team in the second game of a double header is 62-65 +6 units over the past 7 years so long as the home team did not fall into one of our 2 earlier betting systems. Right off the bat, we are starting with something that is a winner albeit a small winner but a winner nontheless.

Since runs scored was a pervasive issue in our Home Teams betting systems article, then we were certain that it would be the case for the Road Teams.

From the remaining games, we did analysis on a team's performance the previous day and found that if our road team scored less than 3 runs, they came back in game two at a stellar 21-14 +14 units. If our team scored double digit runs in its previous game, it ended up as a +5 units but not worthy of mention. If we did not use the exclusivity principle here, then we would have seen a 27-26 +8 unit system.

Sometimes it hurts to use exclusivity because finding systems that contradict yourself can help to expose weaker baseball systems. By doing exclusivity, we may be making false assumptions on the credibility and strength of any one system.



Riding Momentum into Game 1 of a Series

When we analyze the first game of a series, there are certain angles that we like to focus on.

We always like to bet on teams that are coming into a series after having gotten a sweep or a series win. Similarly, we like to go against teams having been swept or off a series loss. Home teams always have an added advantage during the first game of a series so we like looking for undervalued home teams.

The amount of days rest that a team gets going into the series may also play a factor on a team as well. Rest does not bode well for a team that has been winning but it gives a struggling team a chance to shake off its slump.

What we have consistently found was that going into a series with momentum was always the biggest key sign pointing to going for or against a team. Whether its a win streak or runs scored, betting on these teams is a good sign.

We put together one of the simplest possible baseball betting systems together to see if it would work and found that if a team playing a Series Game 1 scored 15+ runs in its previous game was 62-47 +16 units over the past 7 seasons. Adding a little flavor to it because we like home teams in this spot, we see a system that is 30-16 +14.7 units with no losing seasons. The average margin of victory for our team is actually greater than 1 run per game and there was an inherent 30 point average value in the line.



Betting Teams off a One Run Loss

If you have been following our NBA Betting Systems on our partner NFLSystems.com then you will know that we often look to bet on teams off an overtime loss or a one run loss because we know the disappointment of having been so close to victory propels them in the next game. Does this mentality work in baseball?

We have not done a good job in bookkeeping which games in our database have gone to overtime so we cannot give you any indication of how teams do off of an overtime loss. The next best thing is a loss by one run.

We checked how teams did off of a one-run loss, and saw that they are a +34 units over the past 3 seasons. As an underdog, these teams are +59 units over that 3 year span. Evidence that baseball teams off one run losses play above expectations in their following game as an underdog.

When we think about motivation, we love to focus in on the home/away differential for the system. We know our team is motivated so we look at how it does at home versus on the road. This system actually performed far better for teams on the road. A very surprising statistic for us because we expected it to work for the home teams.

Nevertheless, we found ourself the making of a decent angle that may help us in identifying winners. Road underdogs off of a one run loss were +35 units the past 3 baseball seasons.



Predicting Easier Overs

The following are the average total scores conditioned on the following teams winning
Code:
League Wide: 9.74
Road Team: 9.94
Road Favorite: 9.91
Road Underdog: 9.96
Home Team: 9.57
Home Favorite: 9.59
Home Underdog: 9.50

Keep in mind that these statistics have been taken over the high scoring era. There have been signs that the 2005 season is starting to become a pitcher's era so the average total scores are lowering. Regardless though, when road teams win the average score will be higher.

Percentage of Games Leading to Overs based on the following teams winning:
Code:
League Wide: 49.1%
Road Team: 51.3%
Road Favorite: 51.6%
Road Underdog: 49.2%
Home Team: 47.1%
Home Favorite: 47.4$
Home Underdog: 46.1%
When road teams win the over is 4% more likely to occur than when home teams win. Since the difference is the fact that our road team has to bat in the 9th. Identifying a situation where we have a road team that is likely to win, questionable starting pitching but most importantly, a home team that has a weak bullpen will produce easier overs.

Betting Baseball Underdogs

Betting on baseball underdogs consistently and winning is one of the first steps in successful baseball handicapping. There are numerous factors that go into defining what makes a profitable underdog in baseball. The money line odds in baseball are almost always tied to starting pitching so the key to baseball handicapping is to find factors outside of the realm of starting pitching to make your decision.

Let us start by defining underdogs and providing some justification to why betting baseball underdogs is the right direction to pursue when handicapping baseball. I define an underdog as a team whose spread is equal to or greater than +100. I define favorites as teams with a spread less than -100. So if two teams are each -105, for example, I consider them both favorites for my purposes.

Underdogs over the past 7 seasons have gone 6917-9644 (-153 Units). If you understand that the -153 units refers to the juice Vegas gets, you will not be so surprised. Favorites during that span are 9619-6891 (-641 units). So even though you see favorites winning at a strong 58% hit rate, betting on them will cost you more than 4 times your money.

Does this mean that underdogs are 4 times less riskier? YES!

Since the public by and large loves to bet the favorite, Vegas puts far less value on the spread of the favorites. It is easy to know that a favorite team should win and is very likely to win but you must compare the likelihood of this favorite of winning to the spread. You could have looked at all of the favorites over the past 7 years and said, I believe they have a 58% chance of winning, they are the right bet. But Vegas is eating you alive by making you pay way more juice than you should be.

I prefer to bet underdogs and small favorites. Finding an underdog in a game that is evenly matched allows me to bet on a game that has value on the line and more importantly frees me from having to worry about the stupid break-even percentages of the money line odds. With the Vegas bias pointed against favorites anyways, being wrong and betting on underdogs is a less risky proposition anyways.

Now that we know that underdogs are a less riskier bet, here are a couple of factors that I like to look at when betting underdogs.

- At home against division rivals. Teams play their best ball against division rivals and with the low scoring affairs in baseball, most division rivalry games are evenly matched.
- Good offensive production over the past week. I generally like to spread my systems over 6 games because it gives you a good week of past offensive run production results.
- Our team is on a cool winning streak or is playing well over their past 10, 15, 20 games.
- Our team is going against a lefty or a righty which it does well against.

If you can find teams satisfying 2 of the 4 situations and a few other key handicapping angles going against the favorite then chances are you have a decent bet on your hands.