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mikeb104
StatFox Hall of Famer
Registered: Sep 2006
Posts: 7083
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Agree with double. I was disappointed with that whole move too.
BTW, if you think for one minute that he is not trolling here on a daily basis, you are out of your mind.
Too bad he doesn't just contribute here a little.
"Not everything you read on the internet is accurate"- Abraham Lincoln
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11-28-12 01:56 AM |
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Bytore
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 12157
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Touts. Always an interesting subject. lol!
Ok, no probs with Osk when he posted here. I always found his line to be slightly off, and I used oddschecker. He was respectful and very nice with people.
The real question, is why do they become touts?
They need the money. Gambling is not paying their bills. I would say less than 1% in this forum, live off gambling. Maybe less than .01%!!!
So to live off it, picks need to be sold.
Yes, I have studied this intensely. Even in in England, which is a far more open betting market, very few make a living at it. There are documented cases, and they do not tout.
In America, the IRS releases the number of gamblers claiming gambling income as their primary income source. The number is not high. I think it was around 12% or so, I will go see if I can pull that up.
Of these, many are poker players, not sports gamblers.
That is the answer to all this. Even hitting 55%, you need a big bank.
And very low expenses in your life. It does not matter. To survive with a 100K bank, you need to bet about .5% of bank. That would be $500 a game.
You would need to win about two units a week, to live. And this is just a median income. If you like fast cars, you will need more.
So then you need a $200k bank. And so on. If you have a $400,000 home, now worth, 200k because you forgot to buy silver, and bought a new kitchen, you need more. Always more!!!
The most successful gambler in England pulls in about 8 to 12 million a year. He is a geek with numbers. There is a horse trader in Hong Kong, also a geek with numbers. He runs a real syndicate, that none of us can join. Horse racing. He pulls in around 20 million a year.
These are not lucky people. These are methodical ruthless number cruncher types.
So that is the answer to your tout question. Really. The touts are not at the level, where they could live on their own picks. They never have been.
I will show you another level of tout, also popular in England.
Hang on...
Today is education day. lol!
P.S. I agree with Point on Silver, even though I tease him. He may may be one of those kids that grew up with a silver tooth, and they are always biased anyhow...
I disagree with him on Osk.
I agree with both Tex and Rdtrains.
I disagree that you can hit 55% in this forum. There is only one way to prove that. One gambler, or a few, must use picks only, in the forum, state who they followed, and do nothing else, for one month.
It would be an interesting thread. I have tried to start it in the past with no luck.
It would work like this.
Bytore: Following Rdtrains for 5 Units on Cleveland to win ATS, as Rdtrains said 5 units. So we respect the units the poster has chosen.
Since I am not super rich, 5 units would be 10% of my bank using 2% of my bank per unit. Even if I was a 100K gambler!
See if you go broke, or make money. You can post your own picks in the trial. Our bank could be an imaginary $100k. 2% of BR. So remember, if you take 5 units, you just bet $10K.
You cannot take more units, than the original poster suggested. So If a poster says 2 units, you cannot have more.
Why 2%. Every tout claims 2% of BR. 90% of us will go broke in a few weeks.
We need someone to run it. Point? Not me, I am to disorganized.
Denham was the king at this of course. : )
Anyhow, I digress.
Let me show you the future of touting, and why it exists...
"I do not think there is any thrill that can go through the human heart like that felt by the inventor as he sees some creation of the brain unfolding to success... such emotions make a man forget food, sleep, friends, love, everything.
Nikola Tesla
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11-28-12 05:38 PM |
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Bytore
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 12157
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This is an old article.
Even the so called pro here, sold picks.
http://www.nytimes.com/1997/11/09/b...profession.html
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"Would-be professional gamblers, however, should think hard before quitting their day jobs. Only one-half of 1 percent of all gamblers fall into the professional category, according to the Council on Compulsive Gambling of New Jersey. While actual numbers are hard to come by, people in the field say the number of professional gamblers may be 100,000 to 700,000 nationwide. Such gamblers are heavily regulated and must win a lot -- and keep good records -- to make the financials work."
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The professional gambler site was sold, about 5 years ago or so. Hard to get the date right, but it was around that time.
I got an e-mail, telling me so. From the professional gambler site.
RJ Miller is still out there.
From July this year.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/hunch...-204500608.html
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"Still, Miller contends that “no more than one in a hundred bettors can make sports betting their sole vocation.”
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So my estimate is pretty close. .5% to 1%. That would mean, in all forums, only 1% of us, are professional gamblers.
Combine all touts, and I would think the numbers would reflect that as well. This is just basic math, and using mean average deduction. All things return to the mean, and very few systems can rise above the mean.
I have seen it countless times in my own systems, and systems posted in forums. Hot streaks are not methodical number crunching. They do not make a living long-term.
One year is useless, ten years maybe.
I often allude to trading as a solution to this problem, only because you can build methodical systems. They are the same however, without back testing, there is no real proof.
Curtis Faith, who is a stock market type, ran hundreds of stock systems through rigorous analysis, and found only a handful that worked consistently. They did earn about 50% a year.
I suspect sports betting is very similar. Hundreds of trials are needed, and it must be methodical. This is my humble opinion.
I do not think most in the tout business, have even close to the ability to do this.
As you read the Yahoo article from this year, look how at how Pinnacle sums it up. Not so many sharps, are there? I am surprised they can tell after 100 wagers. I would think more than 100 games would be needed, but Pinnacle blows me out the water with algorithmic superiority.
You could look even further, and find mathematicians trying to beat sports. About 1% of them will succeed. There is not one newspaper writer, mathematician or otherwise, who has proofed a winning record over time.
And now, a service I really like.
I will explain why...
"I do not think there is any thrill that can go through the human heart like that felt by the inventor as he sees some creation of the brain unfolding to success... such emotions make a man forget food, sleep, friends, love, everything.
Nikola Tesla
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11-28-12 07:27 PM |
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Bytore
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 12157
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He does it for the love of it, and makes no claim to being a professional gambler.
He sells his picks at a very modest price, and will possibly give them to you for free if you tell him Allan from Canada sent you.
(Yes, I am famous worldwide! lol!!!).
http://www.bettingsystemprofits.com/
Actually, the owner of the site and a friend of his went to great lengths to help me get an NBA machine up and running.
In the end, it had a flaw. Never one to stop, I will build another.
What I really like about the owner, is how upfront he is. He is testing a soccer system right now, and it is up 45 units. He would also tell you, up front, he could use the money to pursue the career and one day be a gambler or trader only.
That is your honesty coming at you. He also runs a fund raising site for people who help cancer victims. You can read about it on his site.
I do believe this is the way to go, for any prospective service. Be upfront, and tell your clients exactly what your objectives are.
The soccer system is undergoing testing, and Matt the owner, is quite upfront about that.
If any of you have an interest, just send me a P.M., and I can forward the latest trial. You can see how it goes up and down 10 units a pop. Definitely no more than 1% of BR should be used to play it.
The max bet is about $5 at Betfair. It is all straight flat wagering, no multiple units.
As it is a test, it could lose the 45 units won so far. Soccer is a strange creature...
I also look at units, when studying any prospective service or tout. Using multiple units, is really like using margin in stock markets. They may win big, but the double edged sword is as sharp as ever.
Ok, school's out!!! I hope you enjoyed my take and research on it all. : )
P.S. I will get to the 1%, one of these days...
"I do not think there is any thrill that can go through the human heart like that felt by the inventor as he sees some creation of the brain unfolding to success... such emotions make a man forget food, sleep, friends, love, everything.
Nikola Tesla
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11-28-12 07:42 PM |
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