I have poured over this game for two days now. I am 100% confident that INDY will win by over a TD.

INDY -3

GRAB THE LINE AT -3!

WHY?
Indy will throw the ball at will. After they get a lead, JAXS will be forced to throw and Gabbert will not get it done. He will have a few moments but as a whole he will have a rough game. They can hit Luck a few times but he has handled pressure very well this year and JAXS really has no pressure with only 8 sacks this season. In the first game this season Indy would have won convincingly if not for a very lucky pass that went for a TD. Indy should be 6-2 and Jaxs should be winless. Jaxs is just not a good football team. Indy is solid. Both D's are suspect and injury riddled but Jaxs does not have the talent to keep up with the INDY passing game.

In the end, you have a should be winless team vs a should be 6-2 team in a mismatch where Indy should be laying 7pts or more. Jaxs will not step it up in primetime, they will fail horribly. Gabbert will do ok but Luck will shine. Luck is made for this, Gabbert is a failure. In primetime Jaxs has lost 8 of their last 9. They have not won at home this season while Indy has beaten GB, CHI and MINN, three very solid teams.

BET THE SHED on INDY -3, bet the shed bets are very rare for me but they win. I would not say it if I was not at least 80-90% sure we have a huge edge in this game. The spread is WRONG. INDY WILL WIN.


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if i have not convinced you yet that Indy is the play here.

One plus for Luck's Week 10 outlook is the Jaguars' utter inability to hurry opposing passers. Last in the NFL in sacks (8 in 8 games), Jacksonville also ranks in the bottom eight of both Football Outsiders and Pro Football Focus' team pass-rushing metrics. It's no secret that quarterbacks are unfailingly more productive operating in clean pockets. Luck projects to have his cleanest pocket all season on Thursday night.

If Gabbert took a step forward in Weeks 7-8, he took two steps back against the Lions. Intercepted twice in Week 9, Gabbert should have been picked off at least three more times on poorly placed passes that slipped through the hands of Detroit defenders. Gabbert didn't move the offense until the Jaguars fell behind 21-0, leaning on checkdown completions in comeback mode.

bbaffert

Nice work sir.

Jaguars Run Game vs. Colts Run Defense

In Week 3, Maurice Jones-Drew ran the ball 28 times for 177 yards and a touchdown to control the game. He is out indefinitely with a foot injury, however, so Rashad Jennings has been serving as the feature back. In his three games as a starter, Jennings has carried the ball 50 times but has only 148 yards and a touchdown. The offensive line was part of the reason the Jaguars dominated in Week 3, but they have yet to play as well as a unit since then.

While the Colts run defense has been far from dominant, they have allowed just 251 yards on 60 carries the past three weeks — a respectable average of 4.2 yards allowed per run. Inside linebacker Kavell Conner had his worst game of the year against the Jaguars when he was held without a stop, but he has three stops or more in each of his last five games. If Jacksonville can’t run the ball as well, it will need to rely more on Blaine Gabbert, who had only 10 completions in Week 3.

Jaguars Offensive Tackles vs. Colts Outside Linebackers

Over the last two years, Eugene Monroe has been one of the better left tackles in the league. When he has played anyone but the Colts in 2011 and 2012, he’s allowed a pressure on 4.6 percent of his pass blocks. But in his last three matchups against Indianapolis, that figure has more than doubled to 9.5 percent of his pass blocks. Right tackle Cameron Bradfield has yet to start against Indianapolis, but over the last three games he has not allowed a sack or hit, and an average of one hurry per game.

In the first matchup it was Robert Mathis and Jerry Hughes who shined with a combined sack, hit and three hurries. The Colts showed they had more depth at the position last week when Dwight Freeney became one of the few players to say they got the best of Jake Long with a sack, a hit and two hurries. Backup Justin Hickman also had two hits in his nine pass rushes last week. Freeney, who missed the first matchup, lines up on the defense’s left side on 79.4 percent of his snaps and will frequently be up against Monroe, whom he played well against in the past. While Gabbert doesn’t have much drop off in his statistics when he is under pressure, he has been sacked 18 times. The winner of this matchup will be measured in sacks.

Reggie Wayne vs. Jaguars defense

Reggie Wayne had eight catches for 88 yards in Week 3, but that came on 15 attempts including a dropped pass, and an Andrew Luck interception when Wayne was the target. One of the biggest trouble areas was the middle of the field when the ball was in the air for 10 or more yards. When Wayne was targeted in that area, he had just one catch on five targets for 13 yards. But in the last five games, Wayne has caught 13 passes on 16 targets for 253 yards in the middle of the field on intermediate or deep passes.

On 63.1 percent of his pass routes, Wayne lines up in the slot. In Week 3 that put him against Aaron Ross, but Ross has been playing outside corner because of injuries. That leaves Mike Harris as the slot cornerback who has allowed a high 76.9 percent catch rate. Derek Cox and Rashean Mathis are both questionable as of Wednesday morning, and if one can’t play it will be Harris’ responsibility to stop Wayne most of the time. In the first matchup, safety Dwight Lowery had a strong performance with two passes defended. But Lowery is out with an ankle injury, and although Chris Prosinski has played adequately in his place, he hasn’t quite matched the play of Lowery. All signs point to a bigger day out of Wayne.

Vick Ballard, Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville: The Jaguars are the third worst team in fantasy when it comes to defending the run and are coming off of a week where they just allowed the Lions, that's right the Lions, to rush for 151 yards and three touchdowns. With Donald Brown's status questionable at this time, it looks like Ballard will get this tasty matchup all to himself.

i'm always weary of betting these thursday night NFL games, especially betting on the road team because we just never know exactly how the short week, travel, etc will affect a team. having said all that, i do like indy tonight, definitely going to play them, but if this game were on a sunday it'd be a much bigger bet.

gl all!

I am 5-1 on my posted NFL picks here. I have a great grasp on the NFL this season, probably my best grasp of all the years I have been watching.

I will keep posting things as I find them. My goal being to get you guys on this excellent play.

I want to say, the line is at -3 because
1- Vegas values home teams
2- Indy has injuries to their secondary.

This does not matter because
1- Jacs has not won a home game this year.
2- Indy can blitz and Gabbert is probably the worst QB still starting in the NFL.

I am not a fan of favorites but I just do not see Jacs putting up much of a fight. There is NO WAY they slow down Luck. Miami has a solid pass D and they got beat down by this Indy passing game last week. Jacs pass D is worse. Vegas is smart but they undervalued Indy in this game.

I have seen Miami and Jacs play my beloved Houston Texans and Miami is a much better team all around. What INDY did to them is amazing considering Miami was able to hold Houston to 337 total yards. The mighty Texans line was only able to get 2.4 yards a rush vs. Miami.

Miami only sacked Indy 1 time last week and they have a much better pass rush than Jaxs. Luck will have time against a horrible secondary, that is a very bad thing, probably the most important of the game. Luck is going to pick Jaxs apart and if somehow they manage to cover guys he will run the ball.

I think the short week is another BIG advantage for Indy. Why?

Vs Jaxs Detroit had a Time of Poss of 35:30

Vs Indy Miami had a Time of Poss of 25:06

Basically, Jaxs just played 10 more minutes of D while IND played 10 less minutes of D. That is a big deal just a few days later.

Jacksonville remains dead last in the NFL in sacks, and their failure to get pressure on the quarterback has to be a big part of why they are 25th in the league against the pass, 27th (tied) in interceptions, and have allowed the sixth-most passing touchdowns. Five different QBs have thrown for 270 or more yards when facing the Jaguars and eight WR have gained 75 or more receiving yards. But due to the success of the receivers, teams have had little use for their tight ends against Jacksonville, and just one team has allowed fewer FPts/G to players at that positon.

The Jags are 27th in the NFL in run defense, 31st in rushing scores allowed and 19th in YPC allowed. Fourth-most FPts/G allowed to running backs. Only three teams have allowed more FPPG to running backs than Jacksonville, with six opposing backs gaining at least 70 yards against them, and three different runners gaining 70+ yards and scoring multiple times.

U still take Indy

The Jags are 2-1 ATS

Line down to +3

I'm taking the home dog on monday night!

GL-

I did not have a dog in this fight but i will back the colts here. ANDREW IS THE REAL DEAL...colts 4th yards off, 6 in pass. i get a healthy team. NICE WORK..ie If we are talking scoreing battle. i want ANDREW

79% betting on Indy.

I siding with the bookie tonight.

Cisco - It is Thursday night. If this was MNF I would be a lot more cautious but TNF I do not worry at all.

doubled1511 - I think Indy wins by at least a TD. I would not BET the shed on 4.5 though, 3 is a SHED BET, 4.5 just adds too much risk, still worth a play but -3 is still out there and availiable and that is SHED WORTHY.

rarely completes the sweep!!!