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CNOTES
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Pac-12 Report - Week 12
November 14, 2012
Saturday - Southern California at UCLA (FOX, 3:05 p.m. ET)
Matchup Five-Star Game
How nice is it to see this game as being relevant again? College football needs this. The Pac-12 needs this. It's been a while since UCLA enters the 'Inner City' rivalry game with a higher ranking. In fact, the last time that happened was 2001. UCLA has a sour taste in its mouth after getting their heads handed to them, 50-0, in last season's game. The Trojans have won 12 of the past 13 meetings straight-up, but UCLA has been the better team this season, and USC needs this one to avert a complete disaster. USC is 1-4 ATS in its past five games against a team with a winning record, and 0-5 ATS in its past five road games. UCLA is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings with a team that has a winning record, and 12-3 ATS in its past 15 home games against a team with a winning road record. The Bruins are also 6-2 ATS in their past eight games. While the Trojans are 9-4 ATS in their past 13 meetings with the Bruins, the home team is 7-2 ATS in the past nine. USC is favored, but mostly due to recent trends over the years, and not because of this season's body of work.
Saturday - Stanford at Oregon (ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Four-Star Game
If not for the emergence of UCLA, and the importance of their rivalry game with USC, this would be the marquee matchup in the Pac-12. In fact, it still might be the better game. The Cardinal are 16-5-1 ATS in their past 22 road games, and 15-5-1 in their past 21 Pac-12 battles. The Cardinal are also 6-2 ATS in the past eight matchups against a team with a winning record. However, the Ducks are 5-0 ATS in their past five Pac-12 games and 5-0 ATS in the past five overall. However, Oregon is just 1-4 ATS in the past five home games against a team with a winning road record. As such, Stanford might be the play getting near three touchdowns. If you can get Stanford plus-21, that might be the way to go. They need all the help they can get, as Stanford is 2-8 ATS in the past 10 meetings with Oregon, and 1-4 ATS in the past five trips to Eugene.
Saturday - Arizona at Utah (ESPNU, 10:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Three-Star Game
Arizona has been impressive, going 6-1 at home. However, they are 0-3 away from Tucson. The Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their past seven road games, 0-4 ATS in the past four against a team with a losing record, and 0-5 ATS in their past five road games against a team with a losing home record. For Utah, they are 4-0 ATS in their past four home games, and 6-2 ATS in the past eight home games against a team with a winning record. In the past five meetings, the dog is 4-1 ATS, and the road team is 4-1 ATS. If you want overwhelming evidence for a wager, it might be the over. The over is 5-0 in Arizona's past five games against a team with a losing record, and 6-2 in their past eight road contests. The over is also 17-5 in Arizona's past 22 Pac-12 tilts. For Utah, the over has cashed in four straight at Rice-Eccles, and is 5-2 in their past seven home games against a team with a winning record.
Saturday - California at Oregon State (Pac-12 Network, 10:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Two-Star Game
There was talk about an undefeated season in Corvallis, but it's hard to believe the media even believed their own hype. Oregon State has been dumped twice in the past three games, although both losses came on the road. At Reser Stadium, they are 4-0 this season. The Cal Bears are just 1-3 on the road, and 0-4 ATS in their past four games overall. Cal is also 0-4 ATS in their past four Pac-12 games, and 1-4 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Beavs are 4-1 ATS in their past five home games, and 7-3-1 ATS in their past 11 overall. If you were thinking about the total, Cal is 12-5 in their past 17 Pac-12 tilts, and the under is 14-6 in the past 20 overall. For Oregon State, the under is 9-4-1 in their past 14 home games. The under is also 4-1-1 in the past six meetings at Oregon State, and 5-2-1 in the past eight meetings overall.
Saturday - Washington State at Arizona State (Pac-12 Network, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup One-Star Game
Washington State has been terrible this season, although they were able to cover last week against UCLA. In fact, they have covered two of their past three, and four of the past six despite losing each game straight up. Washington State is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this series, although just 2-5 ATS in their past seven visits to Tempe. For AZ State, they are 0-4 ATS in their past four games, and 0-4 ATS in their past four Pac-12 battles. However, they are 8-3 ATS in their past 11 home games against a team with a losing road record. It might be best just to stay away due to a bunch of conflicting trends. Even the over/under has evidence pointing to either side.
Saturday - Washington at Colorado (FX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Other Game to Watch
The Huskies are starting to re-emerge as a respectable Pac-12 team, winning and covering three straight games to return to the Top 25. Colorado, well, it is just ugly. They have lost nine of their 10 games, including all five at home. But hey, their lone win is against a team from the state of Washington, the Huskies' Apple Cup rival, Washington State. The Huskies are 1-7 ATS in their past eight road games, but 4-1 ATS in their past five overall, 4-1 ATS in their past five Pac-12 games, and 8-1 ATS in their past nine against a team with a losing record. For Colorado, they are 0-5 ATS in their past five games in Boulder, and 1-5 ATS in their past six tilts against a team with a winning record.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-17-12 03:46 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
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Big 12 Battles
November 16, 2012
The Week 12 card certainly isn’t the best one we’ve seen this season, but we’ve got a pair of Big 12 games with plenty on the line. Most notably, unbeaten Kansas St. (10-0 straight up, 8-1-1 against the spread) will play its second road game in as many weeks at Baylor.
Most betting shops have installed the Wildcats as 12 ½-point favorites with a total of 75. Gamblers can take the Bears on the money line for a plus-425 payout (risk $100 to win $425).
Bill Snyder’s team has only been challenged twice this year in wins at Oklahoma (24-19) and at Iowa St. (27-21). KSU’s eight other victories have come by margins of 14 points or more.
In four road assignments, Kansas St. has a 3-0-1 spread record. Despite suffering a concussion the previous week in a 44-30 home win over Oklahoma St., senior quarterback Collin Klein was able to go in Ft. Worth last weekend.
Klein led the Wildcats to a 23-10 win at TCU as a 6 ½-point ‘chalk.’ He ran for a pair of touchdowns while the defense produced its best effort of the year.
Klein is considered the front-runner to win the Heisman Trophy, with Texas A&M’s Johnny Manziel looking like the only challenger. Klein has completed 69.7 percent of his throws for 2,020 yards with a 12/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has also rushed for 748 yards and 19 TDs.
Junior running back John Hubert has run for a team-high 783 yards and 12 TDs, averaging 5.3 yards per carry. Klein’s favorite throwing target is Chris Harper, who has 36 receptions for 604 yards and two TDs.
Baylor (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS) can make its season and renew its postseason aspirations with an upset win in this spot. In addition, it could make a lot of people in Tuscaloosa and Athens happy.
But Art Briles’s squad has lost five of its last six games, including last Saturday’s 42-34 setback at Oklahoma. The Bears did hook up their betting supporters as 21-point underdogs. In fact, they have posted a 4-2 spread record during their current 1-5 SU slide.
The offense hasn’t been the problem, though. Even without last year’s Heisman winner, Robert Griffin III, the Bears rank second in the nation in total offense. They are seventh-best in scoring, averaging 42.7 points per game.
Senior QB Nick Florence has 3,191 passing yards with a 25/11 TD-INT ratio. Florence has also rushed for 362 yards and six TDs.
Baylor senior WR Terrance Williams has enjoyed a breakout campaign, hauling in 77 receptions for 1,431 yards and 10 TDs.
During Briles’s five-year tenure, Baylor is 4-6 ATS as a home underdog.
The ‘over’ is 6-2 overall for the Bears, 2-1 in their three home games with a total. Meanwhile, K-St. has watched the ‘over’ go 5-4 overall, but the ‘under’ is a perfect 4-0 in its road assignments.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
One hour earlier on FOX, West Virginia (5-4 SU, 2-7 ATS) will take on Oklahoma in Morgantown. Most spots are listing the Sooners as 11-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 74. WVU is available on the money line for an attractive plus-330 return (risk $100 to win $330).
Dana Holgorsen’s team had national-title aspirations in early October, but those hopes have given way to a four-game losing streak in WVU’s first venture through the teeth of a Big 12 schedule. Even worse, the Mountaineers are mired in an abysmal 1-7 ATS slide.
West Va. is coming off a 55-34 loss at Oklahoma St. as a 10 ½-point underdog last Saturday. Geno Smith completed 36-of-54 passes for 364 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. Junior WR Stedman Bailey had 14 catches for 225 yards and one TD.
Nevertheless, WVU had to play from behind the entire game after going down 14-0 early. The Mountaineers cut the deficit to 38-34 midway through the third stanza, but the Cowboys quickly answered with 17 consecutive points.
WVU’s defense has been atrocious all year long. The Mountaineers are ranked No. 121 in the country, surrendering 41.4 points per game. They score at a 40.0 PPG clip thanks to the play of Smith.
For the season, Smith has connected on 71.2 percent of his passes for 3,038 yards with an incredible 31/3 TD-INT ratio. Bailey is one of the nation’s elite WRs, bringing down 75 receptions for 1,055 yards and 16 TDs. Senior WR Tavon Austin has 95 catches for 975 yards and 11 TDs.
Oklahoma (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS) has lost to two of the country’s four unbeaten teams with both defeats coming in Norman. The Sooners lost a 24-19 decision to Kansas St. and fell by a 30-13 count against Notre Dame.
Since the loss to the Fighting Irish, OU has won back-to-back games, including a 35-20 win at Iowa St. as a 13 ½-point ‘chalk’ two weeks ago. Landry Jones has 2,681 passing yards with an 18/7 TD-INT ratio.
WVU has only been a home underdog once under Holgorsen, losing 47-21 to LSU as five-point puppy last season. OU has a 2-1 spread record as a road favorite this year, but the Sooners are 6-9 ATS in such spots since 2009.
The ‘over’ is 5-3 overall for both teams.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-17-12 03:52 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12022
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Big Ten Report - Week 12
November 15, 2012
Wisconsin wrapped up the Leaders division with a win over Indiana last week. The Badgers still have a lot to play for this week, however, when Ohio State comes to town in our Big Ten Showcase game of the week. OSU beat the Badgers on a Hail Mary a season ago and Wisconsin wants to re-establish its winning ways at home after losing to Michigan State the last time in Camp Randall. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes aim for their 11th consecutive win and to keep their perfect season alive. All the inside information on that game, as well as every other Big Ten matchup is inside!
Wisconsin (-3) vs. Ohio State - 3:30 PM EST - ABC
UW: Last week at Indiana: W 62-14
OSU: Last week - BYE
Ohio State is working on a perfect season and can lock up the Leaders division championship with a win, but because of postseason bans, Wisconsin is the team that will represent the division in the conference championship game in Indianapolis. In last week's win over Indiana, Wisconsin rushed for a team-record 564 yards and scored seven rushing touchdowns. It was a good thing too, because the Badgers were working with their third string quarterback and he had to throw just seven passes the entire game. The strong rushing effort helped the Badgers hang onto the ball for +20 minutes time of possession over the Hoosiers. They'll have a much more difficult time running against this Ohio State defense that ranks 16th against the run. Defensively Wisconsin held its fifth straight opponent to 16 points or fewer and now ranks 15th in total defense.
Ohio State has won ten straight and got a well-deserved bye after thumping Illinois two weeks ago. OSU hasn't scored fewer than 29 points since September and is averaging 46 points over the last five games. QB Miller has over 1,700 yards passing and over 1,100 yards rushing with 27 total touchdowns and he can remain in the Heisman hunt with another strong performance. The defense has been below-average, allowing 31 points per game over the past five weeks. But this unit has been very opportunistic with timely turnovers (some returned for touchdowns).
Recent history: Ohio State is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings against the Badgers. They are just 1-3 ATS in the last four trips to Camp Randall, however, including a loss here in 2010 when the Bucks were #1 in the nation. Last year Wisconsin was down, 14-26, late in the 4th before two touchdown passes gave them the lead. Braxton Miller then threw the game-winning 40-yard touchdown pass with just 20 seconds remaining. Another notable note is that Bret Bielema and Urban Meyer had a recruiting spat this offseason and you can bet that neither coach has forgotten about it.
Trends: Ohio State is 27-10-1 ATS in its last 38 road games. Wisconsin is 5-1 ATS in its last six conference games and 13-5-1 ATS in its last 19 home games. The 'under' is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings between this two in Madison.
Injury report: OSU coach Urban Meyer says he doesn't know where LB Etienne Sabino is health-wise right now, but the senior will start at Wisconsin after missing two games.
Nebraska (-20) vs. Minnesota - 3:30 PM EST - Big Ten Network
UN: Last week vs. Penn State: W 32-23
UM: Last week at Illinois: W 17-3
Nebraska seems to have a clear path to Indianapolis to play the Badgers. The Huskers have this game at home against Minnesota and next week at reeling Iowa. However, they have been playing with fire as of late and no game has been a cake-walk for them. They've trailed in the fourth quarter in three of their last four games including last week vs. Penn State. The Huskers were down by 14 points at halftime and didn't take the lead until midway through the final quarter. The offense racked up 267 rushing yards and 438 total yards against a good Penn State defense - most of it coming in the 2nd half. Defensively Nebraska struggled in the first half last week. They really stepped up in the second. Nebraska forced three turnovers, forced a safety, and allowed just three points all in the second half last week.
Minnesota reached bowl eligibility for the first time since 2009 with a win last week at Illinois last week. It was far from a dominating victory, and the Gophers will have to avoid being flat in their second consecutive road game - this one in the unfriendly confines of Memorial Stadium. This will especially tough for true freshman QB Philip Nelson. Nelson had just 78 yards passing last week against Illinois. The running game helped him out, churning out 232 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Few people pegged Minnesota as a bowl team after back-to-back 3-9 seasons. They now aim to play spoiler and for a signature win this week at Nebraska.
Recent history: Nebraska won the first meeting as conference foes last season, 41-14 (previous meeting before that was in 1990). Nebraska opened up with a scorching first half, taking a 34-0 lead into halftime. Nebraska rushed for 346 yards (6.2 YPC) and the defense held Minnesota to just 254 yards and 11 first downs.
Trends: Minnesota is a surprising 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games in November. The Cornhuskers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games, but just 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games as a 20-point or more favorite.
Injury report: Star RB Rex Burkhead is testing his injured knee in practice this week in hopes that he can get back on the field this Saturday. Burkhead said he's "pretty close" to getting back on the field but that he wants to be smart about the injury. Coach Pelini said the team does not want to play Burkhead until he is 100 percent healthy.
Michigan State (-6.5) vs. Northwestern - 12:00 PM EST - ESPN2
MSU: Last week - BYE
NU: Last week at Michigan: L 31-38 (OT)
Both teams have been eliminated from the Big Ten championship picture, but that doesn't mean they have nothing to play for. The Spartans still need one more win to get to a bowl game with just two games remaining. The bye week arrived at a great time for the Spartans last week. The Spartans suffered another setback two weeks ago after having Nebraska on the ropes. MSU's last four losses this season have been by four points or fewer and offensive deficiencies can be to blame. The Spartans have one of the game's elite defenses and a porous passing attack is really holding them back. QB Andrew Maxwell will have to bounce back from another rough game against Nebraska (9-of-27 passing). RB Bell is holding this team together with 1,249 rushing yards and 11 total touchdowns.
With a few different strokes of fate, we'd be talking about the undefeated Northwestern Wildcats. They've held 4th quarter leads in all three of their losses, including a three-point lead at Michigan last week before the Wolverines kicked a tying field goal as time expired (Northwestern lost in overtime). Northwestern's offense played extremely well against a stout Michigan defense. QB's Siemian and Colter completed 14-of-21 passes with three touchdowns and no interceptions. The Wildcats also tallied 248 rushing yards. This team has been a part of a few bad losses this season, and this one probably stung the most. NW outplayed the Wolverines almost the entire game and a win in the Big House would've been something sweet. Now they have the tough task of regrouping and trying not to be flat this Saturday.
Recent history: Michigan State has won four straight in the series and is 3-1 ATS over that span. The Spartans are just 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in the last five games at home against the Wildcats. MSU won in Evanston last year, 31-17.
Trends: Northwestern has covered four straight overall and is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games. Michigan State is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games overall and 0-6 ATS in its last six home games.
Injury report: Northwestern starting CB Nick VanHoose is questionable for this game, but head coach Fitzgerald said RB Venric Mark will play.
Michigan (-14) vs. Iowa - 12:00 PM EST - ESPN
UM: Last week vs. Northwestern: W 38-31 (OT)
UI: Last week vs. Purdue: L 24-27
Nebraska is in the lead in the Legends division, but you never know in college football and the Wolverines are one Huskers misstep away from taking control of the division, so expect a motivated effort. It looked bleak for a while last week against Northwestern, but Michigan received a huge play from WR Roy Roundtree, who somehow hauled in a 53-yard pass to set up the game-tying field goal against Northwestern. The Wolverines won in overtime. Backup QB Gardner played well in his first start of the season, completing 16-of-29 passes for 249 yards and notched four total touchdowns (two passing, two rushing). Gardner will likely get the start again in place of an injured Denard Robinson.
Iowa is going through a four-game losing streak, its longest since 2007. A loss here would keep the Hawkeyes at home for bowl season. Despite playing at home against a porous Purdue squad last week needing a win, Iowa seemed checked out and unmotivated. The offense had yet another dismal day. Vandenberg completed just 19-of-36 passes for 190 yards. They also had 31 carries for just 74 yards (2.4 YPC). Vandenberg has just five touchdown passes this season and they are averaging just 87 rush yards per game over the last five at less than 3.1 YPC. The defense allowed 490 yards to Purdue, who hadn't gained that many yards since September 15th.
Recent history: Iowa has won three straight in the series and is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six trips to Ann Arbor. Last year Iowa limited Denard Robinson to just 17-of-37 passing and held the Wolves to just 3.4 YPC in the 24-16 win.
Trends: Iowa is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Michigan is 8-2-2 ATS in its last 12 games as a conference home favorite of 14 points or more. The Wolves are just 10-27 ATS in their last 37 conference games overall.
Injury report: Brady Hoke is once again not providing much information on his quarterback situation. He said Wednesday that QB Denard Robinson remains day-to-day with an injured nerve in his throwing elbow. Robinson doesn't appear to be improving as quickly as the Wolverines once expected. Expect Devin Gardner to get the start again.
Penn State (-18.5) vs. Indiana - 12:00 PM EST - Big Ten Network
PSU: Last week at Nebraska: L 23-32
IU: Last week vs. Wisconsin: L 14-62
The potential Indiana Big Ten championship story was fun while it lasted (which turned out to be about five minutes into its matchup with Wisconsin last week), but the young Hoosiers are far from a championship caliber squad. Indiana never truly challenged the Badgers in its most-anticipated home game in recent memory. The Hoosiers allowed 564 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns to the Badgers and it seemed as though it didn't matter who the ball was handed to - everyone saw success running the ball. Offensively the previously strong passing attack of Indiana was stifled against the Badgers defense. Coffman and Sudfeld completed just 25-of-47 passes for 233 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. They'll face another tough task against when they visit an angry Penn State squad off of a loss.
Penn State may feel cheated by the refs in the loss last week, but the truth is that the offense didn't do much to help the team in the second half. They turned the ball over three times, allowed a safety, and only managed three points after taking a 20-6 lead into halftime. The defense couldn't stop Nebraska in the second half and the Huskers' rushing attack racked up 267 yards. This D unit has strong rankings, but the fact is that it has struggled against the elite offenses while dominating the weak ones. Northwestern, Ohio State, and Nebraska all scored 28 points or more (PSU has held the other seven opponents to just 13 points per game). PSU has been good off of a loss this season, as the Lions have won the last two chances by 27 & 25 points.
Recent history: The Hoosiers are 0-7 lifetime in Beaver Stadium, losing by an average of 21 points per outing. The Hoosiers have, however, covered four of the last five meetings overall. Penn State won an ugly meeting last year. The Nittany Lions outgained IU by 208 yards, but had three turnovers and only won by six points - 16-10.
Trends: Indiana is 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss. The Hoosiers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games. Penn State is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games overall and is 4-1 ATS off of a loss.
Illinois (+7) vs. Purdue 3:30 PM EST - Big Ten Network
UI: Last week vs. Minnesota: L 3-17
PU: Last week at Iowa: W 27-24
The Boilermakers can still go bowling by beating the Illini on the road and winning over Indiana at home in the finale. Danny Hope may have saved his job - at least for another week - with that victory. A loss here to follow-up would almost certainly guarantee that Hope doesn't return in 2013. Purdue dominated the box score at Iowa and shouldn't have needed a last-second field goal to win. The Boilers racked up 26 first downs and 490 yards, receiving big performances from QB Marve (266 passing yards and two touchdowns) and RB Ralph Bolden (102 yards on 14 carries). The defense really stepped up as well for the first time in over a month, allowing Iowa to just 71 rush yards and 16 first downs.
Illinois has dropped seven straight and remains winless in the conference. This is probably its best chance at notching that elusive first victory before traveling to Northwestern in the finale next week (the Illini have now dropped 12 straight Big Ten games dating back to last season). They are averaging just 10.5 points per game in conference play and haven't scored over 22 points - which mostly came in garbage time in a blowout against Ohio State. Illinois was competitive in its loss to Minnesota last week. The Illini were down by just seven points before Minnesota scored the clinching touchdown with just over a minute remaining. Still, the offense managed just three points and 276 yards.
Recent history: Purdue has won six of the last seven meetings and is 3-1 ATS in its last four trips to Champaign. Last year, Purdue had a 21-0 lead in the fourth quarter but had to fend off a late rally, winning 21-14.
Trends: The Boilermakers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall and 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a win. Illinois is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a loss and 0-7 ATS in its last seven conference games.
Injury report: Illinois' star LB Jonathan Brown has still not been cleared to play after missing the past two games. Head coach Tim Beckman said Brown is no longer using a sling and looks to be improving.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-17-12 03:55 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12022
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ACC Report - Week 12
November 14, 2012
I was staring a perfect 3-0 in the ACC last week right in the face, but the Virginia Cavaliers mounted an impressive two-minute drill to score with :06 left in regulation to knock off the Miami Hurricanes, whom I had on the moneyline instead of the published plus-2. The Canes frittered away 10-point fourth quarter lead, causing me to say bad words in front of my kids, and put me in a generally foul mood for the remainder of the day. All because of a Miami-Virginia game. I really need to stop watching my picked games, and just check the scores later after doing something productive. But, we all know, that simply can't be done. It is more fun to follow the games online or on television, even when we take a bad beat. Gotta love the action.
Joe Williams's ACC Season Picks:
Period: 8/31/2012 to 11/10/2012
Pick Type: All Picks
Record: 22-13-0 ( 62.9% , +775)
PICK DETAILS
Week Record Total
Week 11 (Nov. 8-10) 2-1 Won (+ 100)
Week 10 (Nov. 1-3) 3-1 Won (+ 200)
Week 9 (Oct. 25-27) 0-4 Lost (- 445)
Week 8 (Oct. 18-20) 2-0 Won (+ 200)
Week 7 (Oct. 11-13) 0-0 - (+/-0)
Week 6 (Oct. 4-6) 2-1 Won (+90)
Week 5 (Sept. 27-29) 3-1 Won (+190)
Week 4 (Sept. 19-22) 3-1 Won (+190)
Week 3 (Sept. 13-15) 3-2 Won (+80)
Week 2 (Sept. 6-8) 2-1 Won (+90)
Week 1 (Aug. 31-Sept. 3) 2-1 Won (+80)
Saturday - North Carolina State at Clemson (ABC/ESPN2, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Five-Star Game
Who knows what Wolfpack team is going to show up here? They beat Florida State, they get smashed by a terrible Virginia team, and then rebound the next week by crushing Wake Forest. This team is borderline schizophrenic. N.C. State gained bowl eligibility with their win over the Deacs, becoming the fourth ACC team to qualify for postseason play (UNC also has six wins, but is ineligible for a bowl). The Wolfpack is 0-5-1 ATS in their past six road games, but 25-12-3 ATS against a team with a winning record in its past 40 games. N.C. State is also 8-3 ATS in the past 11 games in November. Those trends are just as confusing as their on-field play. Meanwhile, Clemson is not confusing. They have covered seven straight, and they are 4-0 ATS in their past four against teams with a winning record. In addition, Clemson is 25-10 ATS in their past 35 ACC battles. More confusing, though, is the fact N.C. State is 6-1 ATS in their past seven trips to Death Valley, the road team is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings (the lone loss last season when Clemson was killed in Raleigh late in the season), and the underdog is 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings overall. The Tigers are favored by 17 points in this one, and the public likes them at about a 2-to-1 clip. The good news for the Tigers is that WR Sammy Watkins (leg) is probable to play. I can totally see a backdoor cover happening in this game once it has already been decided.
Saturday - Duke at Georgia Tech (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Four-Star Game
If the Duke Blue Devils are ever going to get any respect, they are going to need to find a way to win on the road. While impressive at home, at least against teams they should beat, they are 5-1. However, on the road they are an abysmal 1-3, and they have been outscored by 166-74 in those four contests away from Wallace Wade. As such, Vegas has installed the Ramblin' Wreck as a two-touchdown favorite. Too much? Let's see. Duke is 8-1 ATS in their past nine home games, but 1-6 ATS in their past seven road contests. Meanwhile, Ga. Tech is 5-2 ATS in its past seven ACC battles. The over might be the play here, as the total has gone over the number four times (4-0-1) in Duke's past five road contests, and the over is 7-0-1 in Duke's past eight ACC games overall. For Georgia Tech, the over is 7-1 in its past eight games, and 6-0 in its past six games against a team with a winning record. This could be a high-scoring affair. The total is set high at 68.
Saturday - Wake Forest at Notre Dame (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Three-Star Game
This one doesn't figure to be close, although the Fighting Irish have had a penchant of letting lesser teams hang around and at least make it interesting (see Pitt, BC). Vegas has made ND a 24-point favorite, although Notre Dame is 1-4 ATS in their past five games. Wake is 4-1 ATS in its past four against Independents, and 10-1 ATS in its past 11 games following a straight-up loss. When these teams met in Winston-Salem last season (Nov. 5, 2011), Wake hung tight before eventually losing 24-17, covering at home. The Deacs have covered two of their past three on the road. The total of under 42 looks mighty tasty, as the under has cashed in five straight for Wake, and is 19-7 in ND's past 26 in the shadow of 'Touchdown Jesus'. The under is also 14-3 in the Irish's past 17 against ACC opponents, including last week at Chestnut Hill against BC.
Saturday - Florida State at Maryland (ESPNU, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Two-Star Game
Maryland will be wearing super-cool black Under Armour uniforms for their game. Wait until you see them Saturday, unless you want to Google them now. I am a traditionalist, and have tremendous disdain for these ever-changing uniforms for each team every other week, but these are pretty awesome. Now, too bad Maryland can't change their team. They're still the same old Terrapins who are 1-10 ATS in their past 11 home games, and 2-10 ATS in their past 12 ACC games. Facing Florida State is not good news, although the 'Noles are 0-4 ATS in their past four road contests, and just 2-5 ATS in their past seven. FSU has dominated this series lately, and they are 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The favorite (presumably Florida State each time) is 4-1 ATS in the past five battles. The total might be the way to go in this one, as it is hard to see Maryland scoring much against this defense, using a fourth-string linebacker-turned-quarterback to run the offense. The under is 4-0 in Maryland's past four games against a team with a winning record, 5-2 in their past seven overall, and 7-3 in their past 10 ACC games. The under is also 6-1 in FSU's past seven road contests, and 9-4-1 in their past 14 overall. The under is also 4-1 in the past five meetings in the series, and 4-1 in the past five meetings at College Park. Right now, you can hit the under at 45.5 or 46 points.
Thursday - North Carolina at Virginia (ESPN, 7:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup One-Star Game
It could be argued that the Virginia Cavaliers are the hottest team in the Coastal Division of the ACC. That's not saying much, and speaks volumes about the imbalance in the conference. However, UVA has ripped off two straight wins, and remain bowl eligible if they can win against UNC and Virginia Tech. Despite their two-game winning streak, though, they are just 1-8-1 ATS overall this season, and 1-10-1 ATS in their past 12 games overall. North Carolina, on the other hand, is 0-5 ATS in their past five road games. In this series, the Tar Heels are 3-11 ATS in their past 14 meetings with the Hoos, and 1-7 ATS in their past eight trips to Charlottesville. That might mean UVA is a good bet at home despite their recent trouble against the number. The total trends are a mess, as the over is 5-1 in UNC's past six, but the under is 9-3 in UVA's past 12 games at Scott Stadium. It's a good idea to avoid the total.
Saturday - Virginia Tech at Boston College (ACC Network/ESPN3, 12:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Other Game to Watch
The game might be ugly. At first glance, Virginia Tech is 0-5 on the road this season, but favored by 10. What? The Hokies are 0-6 ATS in their past six road games, and 1-6 ATS in their past seven games against teams with a losing record. In addition, they are 6-16-1 ATS in their past 23 games overall, and 2-5 ATS in their past seven ACC battles. So, what gives? Well, Boston College is just 6-13 ATS in its past 19 home games, and 6-20 ATS in the past 26 battles against teams with a losing record. They are also 1-5 ATS in the past six ACC games, and 2-6 ATS in their past eight games overall. So someone will be bucking a trend here. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the past six games.
Saturday - South Florida at Miami (Fla.) (ESPN3, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Other Game to Watch
A couple of years ago, this might have been an attractive matchup, but the Bulls are just not the team they were then. USF looked to be a rising team, but they have fallen off badly. The Bulls are just 1-11-1 ATS in their past 13 games on grass, and 4-13-1 ATS in their past 18 games overall. They do hold a 7-2 ATS record in the past nine matchups with ACC opponents, but that's about the only thing to get bettors off of Miami. The Hurricanes are 4-0 ATS in the past four home games, 4-0 ATS in their past four overall, and 4-0 ATS in their past four on grass. Miami hurt some people (ME!) with a last-second loss at Virginia, losing by one, but still cover a plus-2 line. If you had them on the moneyline, though (again, ME!), then you have a bit of a sour taste in your mouth.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-17-12 03:58 PM |
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CNOTES
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Kansas State Puts Unbeaten Record On Line At Baylor
Kansas State Wildcats at Baylor Bears
College Football Betting Preview
Date: 11/17/2012 at 8:00 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: KSU -11, O/U 74
Television: ESPN
Kansas State Wildcats: After moving to the top of the BCS rankings this week, Coach Bill Snyder and the 'Cats (10-0 straight-up, 8-1-1 against the spread) are looking for their fifth consecutive point-spread victory. Heisman Trophy favorite Collin Klein and the KSU offense had just enough to get past TCU last Saturday in Ft. Worth, scoring a 23-10 triumph with a season-low 256 yards of offense. The final was not as close as it might appear after the Wildcats held a 23-0 lead entering the fourth quarter, and they go from facing the nation's 21st-ranked defense in the Horned Frogs to a Baylor stop unit that is dead last (124th), allowing nearly 520 yards per game. K-State could be without WR Tyler Lockett (ankle) who is questionable for this matchup (click to check updated college football injury report), but another standout performance by Klein will likely lock up the Heisman for him. The Wildcats are 4-0 to the "under" on the road this season, but the "over" is 4-2 in the last six meetings in this series.
Baylor Bears: It has been a rough conference campaign for Coach Art Briles and the Bears (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS) who began the year 3-0, but have since gone 1-5 on the Big 12 schedule. Baylor backers, however, are 4-2 ATS on the conference slate, their latest winning ticket coming last week in Oklahoma where the Bears fell 42-34 to a Sooners team favored by three touchdowns. There has been little wrong on the offensive end that finds the Bears second in the country in passing (367.7 yards per game) and seventh in scoring (42.7 points per game). The defense, however, has surrendered at least 35 points in six of the last seven games, and that doesn't bode well against a KSU squad that is eighth in the nation in scoring (42.2 ppg). Baylor has won its last two home matches with the Wildcats, and the last three overall in this series have finished above the total.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-17-12 04:01 PM |
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CNOTES
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Pac-12 Rivals Collide On Saturday Starting With USC At UCLA
USC Trojans at UCLA Bruins
College Football Betting Preview
Date: 11/17/2012 at 3:05 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: USC -3½, O/U 65
Television: FOX
USC Trojans: The Trojans (7-3 straight up, 3-7 against the spread) snapped a 2-game skid with a 38-17 win and cover at home vs. Arizona State last Saturday. Curtis McNeal rushed for 163 yards and two scores as Southern Cal overcame five turnovers, including three Matt Barkley interceptions. The Trojans have won the last five meetings with UCLA, covering the last three, and emerged with wins in five of their last six series clashes at the Rose Bowl.
UCLA Bruins: The Bruins (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) can clinch their second straight appearance in the Pac-12 title game with a victory over USC on Saturday. UCLA posted its fourth consecutive victory last week with a 44-36 triumph at Washington State. Special teams and the defense scored twice to help build a 37-7 halftime lead, and Brett Hundley threw for 261 yards and three TDs. Four of the last five USC-UCLA battles at the Rose Bowl have failed to reach the total.
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Ohio State Buckeyes at Wisconsin Badgers
College Football Betting Preview
Date: 11/17/2012 at 3:30 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Wisconsin -1½, O/U 54
Television: ABC/ESPN2
Ohio State Buckeyes: The Buckeyes (10-0 SU, 5-5 ATS) come off their bye week looking to keep their unbeaten record intact. Sophomore QB Braxton Miller has passed for over 1,750 yards and 14 TDs, and also leads the team in rushing (1,166 yards) with 13 more scores on the ground. Four of OSU's last five games have jumped the total, and four of the last six meetings against Wisconsin have also gone "over."
Wisconsin Badgers: With Ohio State ineligible for the Big Ten Championship, the Badgers (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) can punch their ticket to the conference title tilt with a victory Saturday and again next week at Penn State. Wisconsin bounced back from a tough loss vs. Michigan State by rolling Indiana last Saturday, 62-14. The Badgers set a school record with 564 yards rushing in the rout, attempting only seven passes in the contest. Wisconsin is 13-1 in its last 14 games at Camp Randall.
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Stanford Cardinal at Oregon Ducks
College Football Betting Preview
Date: 11/17/2012 at 8:00 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Oregon -21½, O/U 65
Television: ABC
Stanford Cardinal: The Cardinal (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) picked up their fourth straight win, and second consecutive cover, with a 27-23 decision vs. Oregon State a week ago. Stanford worked around four turnovers and scored the winning TD with just over five minutes remaining. The defense ranks 12th in the country allowing just 17.2 PPG, but has allowed 47.0 PPG in the last seven matchups vs. Oregon.
Oregon Ducks: Keeping their perfect season going, the Ducks (10-0 SU, 6-4 ATS) posted their fifth straight cover with a 59-17 pasting of Cal on the road as huge 31½-point favorites. Marcus Mariota threw six touchdown passes in the contest, three of them to Josh Huff. Oregon has won nine of the last 10games vs. Stanford, and the last seven in this series have finished above the total.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-17-12 04:12 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12022
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College football betting weather watch: Week 12
South Florida at Miami (-6, 57)
Site: MetLife Stadium
Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-70s with a 25 percent chance of showers. Winds will blow out of the NE at 12 mph.
USC at UCLA (4, 64.5)
Site: Rose Bowl
Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s with an 80 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the south at 6 mph.
Colorado State at Boise State (-28.5, 49.5)
Site: Bronco Stadium
Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s with a 55 percent chance of showers. Winds will blow out of the SE at 6 mph.
Stanford at Oregon (-20.5, 66)
Site: Autzen Stadium
Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-40s with a 90 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the south at 7 mph.
Arizona at Utah (1, 61.5)
Site: Rice-Eccles Stadium
Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-30s with a 30 percent chance of showers. Winds will blow out of the SSE at 7 mph.
California at Oregon State (-14.5, 48.5)
Site: Reser Stadium
Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-40s with a 75 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the south at 10 mph.
Brigham Young at San Jose State (2.5, 48)
Site: Spartan Stadium
Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s with an 85 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the SE at 12 mph.
Minnesota at Nebraska (-20.5, 53)
Site: Memorial Stadium
Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s under partly cloudy skies. But winds are expected to gust out of the south at 20 mph.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-17-12 04:15 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
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College football Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Week 12
Odds are not available for the following ranked teams this week:
(4) Alabama, (9) South Carolina, (5) Georgia, (6) Florida, (8) Texas A&M
(10) Florida State at Maryland (31, 45.5)
The Seminoles boast the FBS' best defense (242.9 yards per game) and will present a difficult challenge for Maryland, which mustered a season-low 180 total yards in its 45-10 setback to Clemson last week. With season-ending injuries to four QBs, converted linebacker Shawn Petty is taking his lumps at quarterback for the Terrapins. Petty made his second consecutive start last week and threw for only 41 yards while fumbling twice. Maryland is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games.
Iowa at (21) Michigan (-16.5, 46.5)
Michigan coach Brady Hoke isn’t tipping his cap about the chances of injured senior QB Denard Robinson (elbow) playing in his final home game. The Wolverines have no reason to rush him back because of the solid play of backup Devin Gardner, who has passed for 230-plus yards in back-to-back victories. The Hawkeyes have won three straight over Michigan and the underdog is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
Rutgers at (22) Cincinnati (-6, 48)
Cincinnati has rebounded from two straight losses with a pair of victories and comes in with the top scoring and rushing offense in the Big East. But Rutgers can lean on its defense, which is fifth in the nation in points against (13.4) and 14th in yards against. On offense, the Scarlet Knights may be without standout RB Jawan Jamison, who suffered an ankle injury in last week’s win over Army. Rutgers is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall and 4-0 ATS in its last four conference games.
(25) Washington at Colorado (20.5, 54.5)
Washington looks for a fourth straight win Saturday when it travels to Colorado. The Buffaloes have lost six straight and are allowing a nation-worst 47.2 points per game - on pace to shatter the school record for points allowed and to register the worst win-loss mark in school history. Colorado has failed to cover in its last five home games and Washington is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games versus a team with a losing record.
(18) USC at (17) UCLA (3.5, 66)
The Trojans trail the Bruins by a half-game in the Pac-12 South and the winner advances to the Pac-12 title game. USC has won five straight and 12 of the last 13 meetings with UCLA, including a 50-0 blasting last season when Matt Barkley threw for 423 yards and six touchdown passes. The Bruins have resurfaced impressively this season under first-year coach Jim Mora and have won four consecutive games. The Trojans are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.
Minnesota at (14) Nebraska (-20, 53)
The Cornhuskers are tied for first in the Big Ten Division with Michigan, but control their own destiny by virtue of their 23-9 victory over the Wolverines on Oct. 27. The Cornhuskers have taken the last 15 meetings with Minnesota, including a 41-14 decision last season. Nebraska is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven home games.
(23) Texas Tech at (24) Oklahoma State (-10, 73.5)
Texas Tech barely survived the Jayhawks last week as Seth Doege, who leads the nation with 34 touchdown passes, threw for 476 yards and three scores in a 41-34 double-overtime victory. The Red Raiders have allowed an average of 232.5 rushing yards and eight touchdowns on the ground over the last four games. That’s not good news because Oklahoma State RB Joseph Randle leads the Big 12 in rushing, averaging 112 yards per game. Texas Tech is 1-6 ATS in its last seven meetings with Oklahoma State.
North Carolina State at (11) Clemson (-16.5, 65)
Tajh Boyd has passed for 1,033 yards and 13 touchdowns in his past three games to help the Tigers keep pace with Florida State in the ACC’s Atlantic Division. Clemson has won six in a row since falling at Florida State, and ranks sixth in the nation in points per game (42.9). The Wolfpack destroyed Wake Forest last week and already pulled off an upset over ranked FSU on Oct. 6. The Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall
Mississippi at (7) LSU (-18.5, 49.5)
The Tigers are not in the national title picture, but they are contenders for a BCS bowl game if they handle the Rebels and then Arkansas the next Friday in Fayetteville. Ole Miss has given up 27.7 points per game in SEC play, the fifth-highest average in the league. That does not bode well against an LSU squad coming off one of its better offensive showings against Mississippi State. The Rebels, who are 8-0 ATS in their last eight trips to Death Valley, need one win in their final two games to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2009.
Wake Forest at (3) Notre Dame (-23.5, 42)
The Fighting Irish need to win out and get some help to finish in the top two of the BCS and play for the National Championship. Wake Forest is hoping to become bowl eligible with a win but is 1-3 on the road and is coming off a 37-6 loss at North Carolina State. The Demon Deacons have been held to fewer than 20 points in four of their last five games and will be trying to find the end zone against a Notre Dame team that is first nationally in scoring defense, surrendering an average of 11.1 points. The Fighting Irish are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
Utah State at (20) Louisiana Tech (3.5, 73.5)
The Bulldogs can draw one step closer to a Western Athletic Conference title and keep their BCS dreams alive with a home win over Utah State on Saturday. The Aggies are tied with Louisiana Tech for the WAC lead and will put their tough defense up against the Bulldogs. Louisiana Tech is averaging 576.5 yards to lead the nation but Utah State boasts the sixth-ranked scoring defense in the country, surrendering 13.5 points. The Aggies can put up points, too, and have scored at least 38 in each of their last four games as they’ve ripped through the WAC. The over is 9-1 in Louisiana Tech’s last 10 games overall.
(12) Oklahoma at West Virginia (11, 74.5)
Oklahoma still has slim hopes of winning the Big 12 Conference if Kansas State stumbles badly, but the Sooners are also in contention for a BCS bowl bid as they head to West Virginia. The Sooners allowed a season-high point total in a 42-34 victory over Baylor last week that may have provided a blueprint on how they will attack West Virginia. Oklahoma used as many as seven defensive backs against pass-happy Baylor, but wound up surrendering 252 yards rushing. West Virginia is mired in a four-game losing streak and has failed to cover during the losing skid.
(1) Kansas State at Baylor (12.5, 74.5)
Expect plenty of offense when Kansas State travels to Baylor for a Big 12 showdown. The Wildcats, who are two wins away from a trip to their first BCS National Championship Game, score on 53 percent of their offensive possessions and put points on the board on every 1.8 drives. Baylor’s pass offense is ranked No. 2 in the nation but its pass defense is ranked 116th in the country, allowing an average of 367.7 yards per game. The over is 5-1 in Kansas State’s last six games versus a team with a losing record.
(13) Stanford at (2) Oregon (-20.5, 65)
The Ducks can move one step closer to a national title when they host Stanford in a contest that could decide the Pac-12 Conference North Division. Oregon continued its stampede through the conference by overcoming a slow start in a 59-17 demolition of California to extend the nation's longest winning streak to 13 games. Stanford, a winner of four consecutive games, will move into a tie atop the North Division and be in position to play for the conference championship with a win. Oregon has won nine of the last 10 meetings, including lopsided victories the past two seasons by scores of 53-30 and 52-31. The Ducks have scored more than 50 points seven times this season and are averaging a staggering 63.7 points in their last three. The over is 7-0 in the last seven meetings between the schools.
California at (16) Oregon State (-14.5, 48)
The Beavers look to rebound following their crucial loss at Stanford a week ago which knocked them into third place in the Pac-12 South Division. It was only the third time in the last 55 games that the Beavers blew a fourth-quarter lead and lost. Oregon State is 4-0 at home this season but may be without the services of QB Cody Vaz, who is dealing with an ankle injury. California is 0-4 ATS in its last four conference games and last four games overall.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-17-12 04:16 PM |
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CNOTES
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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 12
Saturday's games
Top games
Northwestern is 7-3 but gagged away all three losses in 4th quarter; they are 2-3 in last five games, 3-1 vs spread as underdogs, with losses by 11-1-7ot points. Last six Michigan State games were all decided by 4 or less points; Spartans are 1-6 vs spread as faves this year, 0-5 at home. State won last four series games by average score of 32-20, but lost four of last six games overall. Big Dozen home favorites are 13-13 vs spread. Under is 7-2-1 in Spartan games; three of last four Wildcats games went under.
Tennessee won six in row, 13 of last 14 games vs Vanderbilt, with dogs 6-2 vs spread in last eight; Vols won last six visits here, last three by 14-10-29 points, but Tennessee's defense has fallen apart, allowing 38-48-51 points in last three games. Vandy rallied from down 23-6 to win last week at Ole Miss, its fourth win in row; they're 1-3 as faves this year, 1-1 at home. Vols lost five of last six games, blowing 21-7 halftime lead at home to Missouri last week. SEC home favorites are 15-13 vs spread.
West Virginia's defense is hideous, allowing 49-55-39-55 points during 4-game losing streak; they allowed 63-45 points in last two games they've won. Mountaineers are 3-2 at home, with underdogs covering four of the five games; they're 1-1 as dogs this year. Oklahoma is 4-0 on road, 3-0 in last four games as road favorite, winning by 17-21-42-15 points. This is not your normal Sooner defense; they allowed 185+ rushing yards three of last four games. Big X home underdogs are 5-7 vs spread. Four of last six games for both teams went over total.
USC won five in row, 12 of its last 13 games vs crosstown rival UCLA; they crushed Bruins 50-0 LY, won five of last six visits here, winning by 14-21 in last two. This is Mora's first game as UCLA coach in this series so chance for him to make recruiting inroads here. Trojans lost two of last three games overall- they are 0-5 vs spread away from home in '12. UCLA won last three games, scoring 45-66-44 points; they covered both games as an underdog this year. Pac-12 home dogs are 11-10 vs spread. Four of last five UCLA games went over total; under is 5-3 in last eight Trojan games.
Kansas State/Baylor split pair of close games last two years, with home team winning both; Wildcats won 36-35 LY, lost 47-42 in '10, but this is been K-State's year- they're 8-1 vs spread in last nine games, 5-2 when a favorite, 1-1 on road, winning away games by 5-6-41-13 points. Baylor lost five of its last six games, losing twice when they scored 50+ points; they're 3-1 vs spread as underdog this year. Iowa State/TCU beat them by 14-28 points, only two games they've lost by more than 7 points. Big X home underdogs are 5-7 vs spread. Under is 3-0-1 in K-State's road games, 3-0 in last three Baylor games.
Lined opened at Oregon -24, is down to 20.5, as books made number so Ducks wouldn't get all the action; they won nine of last 10 games with Stanford, winning 53-30/52-31 last two years, despite Cardinal being in top 10 at time both years. Oregon covered its last five games, with 62-51 win at USC closest game; they're playing for style points to stay in top three in BCS Standings, so tough to buck them here. Stanford won last four games; their only losses are 17-13 at Washington, 20-13 at Notre Dame. Pac-12 home favorites are 13-12 vs spread. Five of last six Oregon games went over; four of last five Cardinal games stayed under.
Favorites covered four of five UCF-Tulsa games, with Hurricanes taking 21-17 decision in Orlando LY; Golden Knights lost their only visit here, 49-19 (+23) in '08- they've won last six games, with three of last four on road. Tulsa won 8 of last 9 games, with its only loss 19-15 at Arkansas; they're 5-0 at home, 2-2 as home favorites- they've been positive in TOs in each of last six games. UCF covered its only games as a dog this year. C-USA home favorites are 11-9 vs spread. Five of last six UCF games went over total; last four Tulsa games stayed under.
BYU won 41-17/52-13 in two games since losing at Notre Dame; win at Georgia Tech was its only win in four road games- they're 2-4 vs spread as favorites, 0-1 on road. San Jose State is going bowling for first time in six years (2nd since '90); they've won four in row, 8 of last 9 games, are 2-0 as underdog this year, and covered last four tries as home underdog. San Jose lost by 3 at Stanford, so they're legit. WAC non-conference underdogs are 9-8 vs spread, 3-1 at home. Three of last four BYU games, five of last eight Spartan games went over total.
Syracuse handed Louisville its first loss last week, but they're 1-4 away from home, with only win 37-36 at South Florida when they trailed 23-3 at half. Orangemen are 3-2-1 as underdogs. Missouri gave up 585 yards last week at Tennessee, but rallied back from down 21-7 at half to win in OT, 51-48. Tigers are 5-0 when they score 21+ points, 0-4 when they do not-- all four of their losses came in SEC games. SEC non-conference home favorites are 9-16 vs spread; Big East underdogs are 8-2-1, 4-2 on road. Last four Syracuse games went over total; six of last eight Missouri games stayed under.
Oklahoma State beat Texas Tech last three years, including 66-6 beating in Lubbock LY when they outgained Red Raiders, 637-270. Cowboys allowed 41+ points in all three losses this year; they're 19-7-1 vs spread in last 27 games as home favorite, 4-0 this year. Tech struggled to beat woeful Kansas in OT last week, but they're 8-3, with losses by 21-31-9 points- they're 1-2 as underdogs, and don't have takeaway in any of last three games. Big X home favorites are 10-12 vs spread. Three of last four Tech games, five of last eight OSU games went over total.
Utah State is 9-0 vs spread this year, winning last four games; their only losses are 16-14 at Wisconsin, 6-3 at BYU; Aggies lost six of last seven games vs Louisiana Tech losing three here 24-6/45-38/48-35. State was a dog in four of nine wins; they've won road games at Colorado St (31-19), San Jose (49-27), UTSA (48-17). Louisiana Tech is 9-1, with only loss 59-57 to Texas A&M (trailed 39-16 at half), so this is high-level game. Bulldogs covered both games as dog this year. WAC home underdogs are 2-7 vs spread this season. Seven of nine State games stayed under; nine of ten Tech games went over.
Underdogs are 6-3 vs spread in last nine Ohio State-Wisconsin games, as dog won SU last two years; Buckeyes won four of last five in series, but lost two of last three visits here. Ohio State is quietest 10-0 team ever, but they've only played three road games, winning 17-16 at Michigan St, 52-49 at Indiana before beating Penn State 35-23- they've allowed 22+ points in last five games. Badgers are bully team, with five wins by 11+ points, but they've lost three of last four games that were decided by 3 or less points. Big Dozen home favorites are 13-12 vs spread. Five of last seven Wisconsin games, four of last five OSU games went over total.
Arkansas State hammered Troy 45-14 LY, its first win in last five tries vs Trojans; they lost last two visits here, 35-28/35-9. ASU won last five games (4-1 vs spread); they're 3-0 on Sun Belt road, winning at FIU by 14, ULL by 23, North Texas by 18. Troy is 2-3 in last five games, but they upset Navy 41-31 last week, fifth straight game they allowed 31+ points. Troy covered all three games as an underdog this year. Sun Belt home underdogs are 3-7 vs spread. Last five Troy games, three of last four ASU games went over the total.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-17-12 04:19 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
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NCAAF
Saturday, November 17
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USC at UCLA: What bettors need to know
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USC at UCLA (-3.5, 66.5)
All that preseason chatter about Matt Barkley coming back to win a national championship sounds a little bit silly with No. 21 Southern California needing to beat No. 16 UCLA at the Rose Bowl on Saturday just to win its half of the Pac-12. The Trojans trail the Bruins by a half-game in the Pac-12 South and the winner advances to the Pac-12 title game. USC has won five straight and 12 of the last 13 meetings with UCLA, including a 50-0 trouncing last season when Barkley threw for 423 yards and six touchdown passes. The Bruins have resurfaced impressively this season under first-year coach Jim Mora and have won four consecutive games.
TV: 3:05 p.m. ET, Fox.
LINE: USC –3.5, O/U 66.5.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s with a 60 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the SSW at 6 mph.
ABOUT USC (7-3, 5-3 Pac-12 South): Barkley has passed for 2,972 yards and 33 touchdowns, but his senior season has been mildly disappointing because of his 13 interceptions, the Trojans’ 26 turnovers and USC’s three defeats. Sophomore receiver Marqise Lee has been USC’s top offensive player with 98 receptions for 1,447 yards and 13 touchdowns. Lee’s 144.7 receiving yards per game ranks second nationally. Junior tailback Silas Redd is expected to return after missing the Nov. 10 contest against Arizona State with a knee injury. USC has committed 13 turnovers over its last three games. Senior free safety T.J. McDonald has a team-best 83 tackles, junior defensive end Morgan Breslin has a team-high 9.5 sacks and sophomore strong-side linebacker Dion Bailey leads with four interceptions.
ABOUT UCLA (8-2, 5-2): Redshirt freshman quarterback Brett Hundley has been superb and a key figure in the Bruins’ rise. Hundley has passed for 2,739 yards and 24 touchdowns and has been intercepted only nine times. Senior running back Johnathan Franklin has racked up 1,270 yards and has topped 100 yards seven times. UCLA has an opportunistic defense that has forced 25 turnovers, including 13 interceptions. Senior strong safety Andrew Abbott and senior cornerback Sheldon Price are tied for the team lead with four apiece. Junior outside linebacker Anthony Barr leads the Bruins in sacks (11) and tackles for losses (17).
TRENDS:
* Trojans are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.
* Under is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in Bruins’ last five games overall.
* Bruins are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. USC leads the series 46-28-7, but UCLA has an 8-7 edge in games played at the Rose Bowl.
2. A victory would allow Mora to match Terry Donahue (nine in 1976) for most wins by a first-year UCLA coach.
3. USC’s McDonald is the older brother of UCLA sophomore safety Tevin McDonald. Their father, Tim, is a former USC All-American and NFL Pro Bowl safety.
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Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-17-12 04:21 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12022
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NCAAF
Saturday, November 17
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Stanford at Oregon: What bettors need to know
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Stanford at Oregon (-20.5, 65.5)
Oregon has ascended to No. 1 in the country and has a clear - albeit dangerous - path to the BCS championship game. The Ducks can move one step closer to a national title when they host No. 13 Stanford on Saturday in a contest that could decide the Pac-12 Conference North Division. Oregon continued its stampede through the conference by overcoming a slow start in a 59-17 demolition of California to extend the nation's longest winning streak to 13 games. Stanford, a winner of four consecutive games since a 20-13 loss at Notre Dame on Oct. 13, is looking to do more than play spoiler against the Ducks. A victory Saturday will move the Cardinal into a tie atop the North Division, and put them in position to play for the conference championship.
TV: 8 p.m. ET, ABC.
LINE: Oregon -20.5, O/U 65.5.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-50s with a 95 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the SW at 4 mph.
ABOUT STANFORD (8-2, 6-1 Pac-12): Quarterback Kevin Hogan turned in a dazzling performance in his first career start last week, guiding the Cardinal to a 27-23 victory over Oregon State. The redshirt freshman will face a daunting task in attempting to keep up with Oregon's race-horse offense. Hogan threw for 254 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions while adding 49 yards rushing last week. Running back Stepfan Taylor balanced the offense with 114 yards and a touchdown and went over 1,000 yards for the third straight season. Stanford's hopes could hinge on the ability of its top-ranked rushing defense (58.6 yards per game) to shut down an Oregon rushing attack that ranks third nationally with 325.1 yards.
ABOUT OREGON (10-0, 7-0 Pac-12): While the Ducks took over the top spot in the coaches poll, they are No. 2 behind Kansas State in the BCS standings - a fact that doesn't concern coach Chip Kelly. “It means absolutely nothing if we don’t go out and win this Saturday,” he said. Oregon had averaged more than 400 yards rushing in each of its three wins prior to last week's matchup with Cal, but got a stellar performance from quarterback Marcus Mariota, who tied a school record with six touchdown passes and a career-high 377 yards. Leading rusher Kenjon Barner, who shredded USC for 321 yards and five touchdowns the previous week, was held to 65 yards. The Ducks have scored more than 50 points seven times and are averaging a staggering 63.7 points in their last three.
TRENDS:
* Ducks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Under is 4-0 in Stanford’s last four road games.
* Over is 7-0 in the last seven meetings.
* Stanford is 1-4 ATS in its last five games in Oregon.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Oregon has won nine of the last 10 meetings, including lopsided victories the past two seasons by scores of 53-30 and 52-31. The Cardinal haven't won at Autzen Stadium since 2001.
2. Taylor became the first player in school history to register three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons.
3. Oregon's average victory margin in Pac-12 play this season is 33.7 points.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-17-12 04:22 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12022
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Games to Watch - Week 13
November 18, 2012
Notre Dame at Southern California (ABC, 8:00 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny
From South Bend to South Beach? Within about a thirty minute span late Saturday night this game got vaulted to the top of the list. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are officially the top-ranked team in the country for the first time since color TV was invented…or at least shortly thereafter. No more "eye ball" tests needed; a win over USC and the Irish are playing for the National Championship. That loud crash you heard on Saturday night was Rick Reilly's email server by the way. The biggest question in this game is the health of Trojans QB Matt Barkley. It appears he is out for not only this game but has thrown his last pass ever at USC due to an apparent separated shoulder he suffered at the end of the UCLA game. Truth be told, even with Barkley the Trojans weren't nearly what they were advertised this season and now it looks like they will have to go with freshman Max Wittek against the number one scoring defense in the country. Max Wittek, meet Manti Te'o…Good luck with that. This is the 83rd meeting between these two schools and Notre Dame leads the all-time series 43-35-5. While USC won last year and has claimed eight out of the past nine in the series, Notre Dame actually won the last the time they met in The Coliseum, 20-16 in 2010. If the Irish can replicate that outcome they are headed to Miami to face (insert SEC team here) for a chance at their first National Championship in 24 years. Due to the Barkley injury there is no line currently on this game but he Irish will be road favorites and if quarterback Everett Golson and running back Cierre Wood can put points on the board against a very bad USC defense, Manti Te'o and the stout Irish defense should have no trouble stopping a USC offense with Max Wittek at the helm. Then again, Irish fans may want to wait until the game is played before they start making hotel reservations in South Beach…just ask Oregon and Kansas State fans.
Oregon at Oregon State (FOX, 6:30 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny
I've said all year I thought Oregon was the best team in the country. Let's just say I'm not quite so convinced anymore. Saturday night was by far the worst Oregon has looked not only this year, but in the past 4 years. With that said I'm not completely convinced they were exposed as some are suggesting. I think it had more to do with the QB Mariota being a true freshman, playing in primetime, a national championship game in their sights and they simply choked under the pressure. They're 18/19/20 year old kids, it happens. And of course playing a very good team in Stanford didn't help. This week they play another quality team with a solid defense in Oregon State, and this one is on the road. If the Ducks offense gets shut down again then they were simply a flashy show for 10 weeks. If they roll through OSU then the Stanford game was simply a fluke. Again, it happens. Either way, this is still a big game for Oregon as they try to keep their now faint National Championship hopes alive as a 10-point road favorite against The Beavers.
South Carolina at Clemson (ESPN, 7:00 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny
The Palmetto state rivalry game has always been one of the more underrated nationally. Clemson has the all-time edge at 65-40-4; however The Gamecocks have won the last three, including 34-13 last year in Columbia and none of the games have been close as South Carolina has outscored its rival 97-37. This year they meet with a combined 19-3 record and a possible BCS at-large berth on the line. While both teams have had successful years, you talk about a clash of two different styles of football; this could be the most entertaining game of the entire weekend. Clemson throws for over 330 yards per game and averages 45 points a game, while South Carolina gives up a very stingy 17 points per game. However with the 'Ole Ball Coach on the sideline South Carolina is perfectly capable of keeping up with the Clemson offense if they need to. As a 4-point home favorite Clemson looks to regain interstate supremacy in a rivalry they owned for the better part of 20 years.
Florida at Florida State (ESPN2, 3:30 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny
I know some of you are thinking this game should be higher up on the list and the fact that these two teams are both 10-1 and have a very outside shot at the National Championship would normally make it. However the Florida offense is literally unwatchable and with quarterback Jeff Driskel questionable going up against a Seminole defense that allows 13 points per game this one could be almost unwatchable. Throw in the fact that the Florida defense allows even fewer points per game (12) and the first one to score a touchdown may automatically win. Florida leads the all-time series 33-21-2 but has dropped the last two by scores of 31-7 and 21-7 after winning six in a row. Due to the Driskell injury there is currently no line on the game.
Other Games to Watch
Matchup Skinny
TCU at Texas (Thursday) - Despite being blown out of Cotton Bowl stadium by OU earlier in the year and Texas fans calling for Mack Brown's head as little as three weeks ago, Texas still has an outside shot at finishing 10-2 and an at-large BCS bowl berth with a win Thursday night over TCU and an upset over Kansas St the following Saturday. This is a rivalry renewed from the old SWC days although TCU in Austin was just 1-28 all-time with 15 straight losses. Texas is an 8-point Thanksgiving night favorite.
Georgia Tech at Georgia - Don't look now but all of the sudden the Georgia Bulldogs are two wins away from playing for the National Championship. Granted one of those is against Alabama in the SEC championship game in two weeks but they have to get by their interstate rivals first. As a 14-point home favorite The Dawgs shouldn't have much trouble on paper, but if they sleep on the Yellow Jackets offense for one second that game against Bama may not mean quite as much. UGA leads this Peach State rivalry 62-39-5 all-time, including 10 of the last 11.
Michigan at Ohio State - Last year, Michigan, behind first-year coach Brady Hoke, snapped a seven-game losing streak in the series with a 40-34 win in Ann Arbor. This year Urban Meyer gets his first taste of "The Game" as it's known in the Midwest. Ohio State has won the last five meetings in Columbus and come into to this game with a perfect season on the line as well. With no post season allowed for the Buckeye's this is their last game of the season and beating hated Michigan would be the perfect way to cap off a 12-0 start to the Urban Meyer era. And on the flip side, nothing would give the Wolverine faithful greater pleasure than upsetting the hated Buckeyes and wrecking their perfect season. Ohio State opens as a small 6-point home favorite.
Stanford at UCLA - After pulling off an improbable road win in Eugene over the weekend, The Cardinal now travel to the Rose Bowl with a chance to win the PAC-12 North. Stanford just shut down the prominent Oregon running attack, now they face Jonathan Franklin and a UCLA offense that rushes for over 200 yards per game. This game means much more to Stanford than it does UCLA as UCLA has already wrapped up the PAC-12 South with an impressive victory over USC over the weekend but a Cardinal victory would wrap up the PAC-12 North. A Stanford victory would actually pit these two against each other 6 days later in the PAC-12 Championship with a spot in the Rose Bowl on the line. Stanford is a small 1-point favorite and would love nothing more than to face them in back to back games.
Auburn at Alabama - The winner of this game has gone on to win the BCS National Championship in each of the last three seasons, and this year that streak may extend to four in a row. Bottom line, Alabama will win this game and win this game with ease as a 31-point favorite, but after what happened last weekend to Kansas State and Oregon this year's Iron Bowl all of the sudden matters again in the big picture.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-22-12 03:55 PM |
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CNOTES
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Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12022
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Tech Trends - Week 13
November 21, 2012
Thursday, Nov. 23
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
TCU at TEXAS...Haven't met since last SWC season in 1995. Mack 2-3 vs. line at home TY, 6-12 vs. line at Austin since 2010. But Frogs only 9-15 last 25 on board and 2-3 as dog TY. Slight to TCU, based on team trends.
Friday, Nov. 23
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
NEBRASKA at IOWA...Ferentz 2-9 vs. line TY and 7-17 against spread since 2011, also just 2-7 last 9 as dog. Hawks also 1-6 vs. spread last 7 at home. Nebraska, based on Iowa woes.
BUFFALO vs. BOWLING GREEN (at Columbus)...BGSU 6-1 SU and vs. line last seven TY. BGSU, based on recent trends.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN at UMASS...Enos has covered 3 of last 4 TY but still just 7-24 last 31 on board since mid 2010. Slight to UMass, based on extended CMU negatives.
BALL STATE at MIAMI-OHIO...Ball has won and covered last five TY and is 9-2 vs. points in 2012. Cards 5-1 vs. line away TY and 29-12 vs. spread away since 2007! Miami only 1-3 vs. line at home in 2012. Ball, based on team and recent trends.
SYRACUSE at TEMPLE...Owls 1-4 SU and vs. line last five TY. Cuse 4-1 vs. line last five TY. Syracuse, based on recent trends.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS at EASTERN MICHIGAN...NIU on a rampage with 10 SU wins in a row and 6-1 vs. line last seven TY. Huskies have also covered last five as MAC visitor. EMU just 7-19 vs. line at Ypsilanti since 2007. NIU, based on team trends
SOUTH FLORIDA at CINCINNATI...Skip only 3-7 vs. line TY and 4-15 last 19 on board since early 2011. Skip, however, is 7-3 as road dog since arriving at USF in 2010, 16-6 since 2007 in role with ECU and Bulls, 25-8 in role since the great year of 2005 at ECU. Slight to USF, based on team trends.
MARSHALL at EAST CAROLINA...Herd no covers last 4 or 5 of last 6 TY. Pirates, however, 5-1 vs. line last six at Greenville. ECU, based on recent trends.
OHIO at KENT STATE...Solich has hit the skids, only 1-6 vs. spread last seven TY. Solich also no covers last four on road TY. Meanwhile, Kent State surging with 9-0 SU and 8-1 spread mark last nine TY. Flashes have covered last three vs. Bobcats. Kent State, based on recent trends.
LSU at ARKANSAS...Hogs usually play LSU tough, although they lost and failed to cover in LY's 41-17 defeat. Still, Ark 4-1 vs. line last five meetings. Yet Razorbacks also 1-8 (2-8 counting Ky) vs. line this season. Les 11-6 vs. line away since 2010. LSU, based on recent trends.
UTAH at COLORADO...Utah only 1-4 vs. line away TY, but CU 2-9 vs. spread overall (0-5 in Boulder) in 2012, and Embree 6-18 vs. line overall since taking over Buffs in 2011. Utah, based on CU negatives.
WEST VIRGINIA at IOWA STATE...WVU and Holgorsen just 3-7 vs. spread in 2012. ISU, based on recent WVU negatives.
WASHINGTON at WASHINGTON STATE...Apple Cup! Huskies finishing with a rush, winning and covering last three, and U-Dub has won and covered last three Apple Cups. U-Dub, based on team and recent series trends.
ARIZONA STATE at ARIZONA...Territorial Cup! Visitor team has often done well in this rivalry and has covered last two and five of last seven meetings. ASU, based on series road trend.
Saturday, Nov. 24
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
MICHIGAN at OHIO STATE...Buckeyes have covered last four and 9 of last 11 meetings. Urban only 5-5 vs. line TY despite all of the SU wins, though Brady Hoke 0-3 as dog this season. OSU, based on series and recent trends.
VANDERBILT at WAKE FOREST...Revenge for Grobe after 41-7 loss LY. Wake had owned this series previously. Dores 16-8 vs. line for James Franklin, they've also won and covered last three on road TY. Vandy, based on team trends.
UCONN at LOUISVILLE...Cards 9-1 SU but only 4-6 vs. line TY, and Charlie Strong only 7-12 vs. line at Papa John's since 2010. Pasqualoni two straight covers TY after five spread Ls in a row. Slight to UConn, based on extended trends.
GEORGIA TECH at GEORGIA...Road team is 8-0-1 vs. spread last 9 in series and 10-1-1 last 12 meetings. Jackets 3-0-1 vs. line last four at Athens. Georgia Tech, based on series trends.
MARYLAND at NORTH CAROLINA...UNC 5-1 vs. line at home this season for Fedora. UNC, based on team trends.
VIRGINIA at VIRGINIA TECH...Beamer has owned UVa in recent years, with eight straight wins and a 7-1 spread mark in those games. Although Beamer only 2-8 vs. line TY and 6-19 last 25 on board since late 2010. VT, based on series trends.
MICHIGAN STATE at MINNESOTA...At least Spartans aren't playing at home, where they're 0-7 vs. line TY after NU loss, and 1-7 as chalk TY. They're 3-1 vs. line away, however, making road team 10-1 vs. spread in Spartan games TY. Gophers 6-2 vs. line last eight at home since mid 2011 and have covered last four in series. Slight to Minnesota, based on team and series trends.
MIAMI-FLORIDA at DUKE...Duke really backing up as season concludes, no wins or covers last three in ugly fashion. Al Golden 8-3 vs. line TY. Miami, based on recent trends.
ILLINOIS at NORTHWESTERN...NU 10-1 vs. line this season. Cats also 6-0 vs. spread at home, while Illini had dropped seven straight vs. number prior to narrow cover vs. Purdue. Illini 0-4 vs. line away TY. NU, based on recent trends.
BOSTON COLLEGE at NC STATE...BC has covered last two this season but is 0-5 vs. line away in 2012. Home team has covered last three years in series. O'Brien 31-13 vs. line after fifth games of season since 2007. NCS, based on team and series home trends.
KENTUCKY at TENNESSEE...Cols 8-4 vs. line in series since 2000. But Vols 0-6 vs. line at Knoxville in 2012. UT no covers last five as chalk. Slight to UK, based on Vol woes.
WISCONSIN at PENN STATE...O'Brien 8-2 vs. line last ten TY, while Wiscy has covered its last three on road this season. Slight to Penn State, based on recent O'Brien marks.
at RUTGERS at PITTSURGH...Road team had covered four straight in this series prior to last season. 'Gers has covered 7 of last 8 this season after Cincy win. Rutgers, based on recent trends.
INDIANA at PURDUE...Old Oaken Bucket! Boilermakers no covers last four as chalk this season. Although Hoosiers 4-1 vs. line on road this season. Road team has covered last three Bucket battles. IU, based on team and recent series road trends.
TEXAS STATE at UTSA...Coker 6-3 vs. line TY and has covered last three after Idaho win. UTSA, based on team trends.
IDAHO at UTAH STATE...USU 10-1 vs. line TY. Meanwhile, Idaho 1-8 last nine vs. number TY. USU, based on recent trends.
SAN DIEGO STATE at WYOMING...Road team has covered last three in series. Christensen 21-12 also as dog since arriving at Wyo in 2009, but Rocky has covered 5 of last 6 TY and is 3-1 vs. line away in 2012. SDSU, based on series and team trends.
TEXAS TECH vs. BAYLOR (at Arlington)...Tech skidding with four spread Ls in a row after OSU debacle, while Baylor has covered three of last four away from Waco TY. Tuberville 1-8 vs. line in last five games of season since 2011. Baylor, based on team trends.
AUBURN at ALABAMA...Iron Bowl. Auburn has covered 5 of last 7 vs. Bama, but note Tigers 9-15 vs. spread post-Cam. Nick 31-19 as home chalk since 2009. Bama, based on anti-Auburn trends.
MISSISSIPPI STATE at OLE MISS...Egg Bowl! Hugh "Pointspread Cover" freeze 18-5 vs. number at Ark State & Ole Miss since LY. Dan Mullen only 1-5 vs. line last six away from Scott Stadium, but has won and covered all three Egg Bowls vs. Rebs (all against Houston Nutt, however). Ole Miss, based on Hugh Freeze trends.
STANFORD at UCLA...Tree has won and covered last three meetings, now 10-1 vs. line away since LY, 15-3 since 2010. UCLA, however, 37-18 vs. line at Rose Bowl since early. Slight to UCLA, based on team trends.
BYU at NEW MEXICO STATE...NMSU has lost last nine SU this season and is just 2-7 vs. spread last nine in 2012. Cougs 7-2 vs. points last 9 away from Provo. BYU, based on team trends.
AIR FORCE at FRESNO STATE...Fresno 10-1 vs. line TY. Also 5-0 vs. line at Dog House for Tim DeRuyter. AFA no covers last four away from home TY. Fresno, based on team trends.
OKLAHOMA STATE at OKLAHOMA...Bedlam! Revenge for Stoops after OSU whipped Sooners 44-10 LY. OSU 0-3 vs. line away TY and has not covered last five away from Boone Pickens Stadium. Slight to OU, based on team trends.
MISSOURI at TEXAS A&M...Pinkel 9-7 as road dog since 2007. Mizzou covered last two in series vs. Mike Sherman A&M teams. Slight to Mizzou, based on team trends.
OREGON at OREGON STATE...Civil War! Ducks have won last four Civil Wars and 3-0-1 vs. line in those games. But Riley 5-1 as dog in 2012 and 25-11-1 in role since '07. OSU, based on team trends.
TULSA at SMU...Golden Hurricane 7-1 vs. line last 8 on CUSA road and has won and covered last two vs. June Jones. Tulsa, based on team and recent series trends.
FLORIDA at FLORIDA STATE...Jimbo is 2-0 SU and vs. line against Florida. Noles 4-1 vs. line at home TY. Gators no covers last four TY . FSU, based on recent trends.
LA TECH at SAN JOSE STATE...LT now no covers last four TY after tough OT loss vs. Utags. Tech also no covers last two away after covering 12 straight away from Ruston. SJSU 9-2 vs. line TY, 17-5 last 22 . Home team has covered last three meetings. Slight to SJSU, based on recent team and recent series trends.
SOUTHERN MISS at MEMPHIS...Memphis has covered last 3 and 4 of last 4 TY after UAB rout. Tigers have also covered last three at Liberty Bowl. Memphis, based on recent trends.
TULANE at HOUSTON...Wave 5-1-1 vs. line last seven TY, Houston no covers last five TY. Cougs, however, 8-0-1 vs. line last nine meetings. Slight to UH, based on series trends.
NEW MEXICO at COLORADO STATE...Home team has covered last four meetings, but Bob Davie has covered 3 of last 4 on road TY and 6 of last 9 overall. Slight to UNM, based on recent trends.
RICE at UTEP...Owls 4-1 vs. line last five TY and 4-1-1 last six as dog. Mike Price 1-3 as chalk TY and 9-18 in role since 2007, Price also 1-7 vs. line vs. Owls since arriving at UTEP in 2004. Rice, based on team and series trends.
SOUTH CAROLINA at CLEMSON...Spurrier has covered 4 of last 6 in series but he's only 5-5 vs. line away from Williams-Brice Stadium since LY. Clemson had covered seven straight TY before narrow non-cover vs. NCS. Slight to Clemson, based on recent trends.
UAB at UCF...UCF only 2-3 vs. line at home TY but O'Leary 23-13 vs. number as host at new stadium since it opened in 2007. UCF, based on extended trends.
NOTRE DAME at SOUTHERN CAL...Irish have only won one of last ten in series but that came two years ago at Coliseum. ND 3-7 vs. line last 10 in series, and 1-4 vs. points last five at Coliseum. This season, SC only 3-8 vs. line (3-2 at home) and ND 4-1 vs. line on road. ND, based on recent trends.
UNLV at HAWAII...Rebs have lost last 21 SU on road and 3-18 vs. line in those games (but 2-3 TY). Norm Chow 0-8 SU last 8 TY and just 1-7 vs. line, no covers last three at Aloha Stadium. Hawaii 4-1 vs. line in series since '06. UH, based on UNLV road mark.
Saturday, Nov. 24 - Added Games
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
NORTH TEXAS at WESTERN KENTUCKY...Mean Green 2-6 vs. line last 8 TY. UNT had won and covered 3 straight vs. Tops (as had most foes) prior to last season. WKU 16-3-1 vs. line last 20. WKU, based on recent trends.
TROY at MIDDLE TENENSSEE...MTSU on 7-2 spread run TY. But Troy 4-1 vs. line away TY. Blakeney, however, has owned Stockstill, beating him six in a row SU, with LY with only non-cover by Trojans in that stretch. Slight to Troy, based on series trends.
SOUTH ALABAMA at UL-LAFAYETTE...Road team now 10-1 vs. line in USA games this season, with Jags 4-1 vs. points away. Slight to USA, based on TY's road-in-Jag trend.
UL-MONROE at FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL...ULM 5-1 vs. line away TY, Golden Panthers 1-4 vs. line at home TY. Warhawks 5-1 vs. points last six in series. ULM, based on team and series trends.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-22-12 04:04 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12022
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ACC Report - Week 13
November 21, 2012
We're heading into the final week of regular season play in the Atlantic Coast Conference, and it's like the grand finale at a July 4th fireworks show. The top two games in particular will have national interest, and some of the other regional rivalries are very, very important to the on-field combatants, as well as the fans. This should be a very fun weekend.
Joe Williams's ACC Season Picks:
Period: 8/31/2012 to 11/17/2012
Pick Type: All Picks
Record: 23-13-0 ( 63.9% , +875)
PICK DETAILS
Week Record Total
Week 12 (Nov. 15-17) 1-0 Won (+ 100)
Week 11 (Nov. 8-10) 2-1 Won (+ 100)
Week 10 (Nov. 1-3) 3-1 Won (+ 200)
Week 9 (Oct. 25-27) 0-4 Lost (- 445)
Week 8 (Oct. 18-20) 2-0 Won (+ 200)
Week 7 (Oct. 11-13) 0-0 - (+/-0)
Week 6 (Oct. 4-6) 2-1 Won (+90)
Week 5 (Sept. 27-29) 3-1 Won (+190)
Week 4 (Sept. 19-22) 3-1 Won (+190)
Week 3 (Sept. 13-15) 3-2 Won (+80)
Week 2 (Sept. 6-8) 2-1 Won (+90)
Week 1 (Aug. 31-Sept. 3) 2-1 Won (+80)
Saturday - South Carolina at Clemson (ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Five-Star Game
The war of words has been going on all week, and one of my favorite quotes of the year popped up again this week. "South Carolina has mouths like Alabama, and a trophy case like Vanderbilt." - unnamed. The Palmetto State rivalry is alive and well, and will certainly be heated in the upstate Saturday night. The Gamecocks have seemed to shake off the loss of RB Marcus Lattimore (knee) surprisingly well. They finished that game with a win against Tennessee, and rattle off two straight against Arkansas and Wofford. But, what they didn't see the past two weeks is a blitzkreig offense like the Tigers employ. Clemson has a quick strike passing attack, and a very good running game, which could give South Carolina fits all evening. USC has failed to cover in three of their past four games, while Clemson has covered seven of their past eight games, barely missing the number last week by a mere one point. The Gamecocks have covered five of the past six in this series, but the home team is also 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. Give the slight edge to Clemson, who will likely be engaged in a very close battle for most of the game until pulling away late.
Saturday - Florida at Florida State (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Four-Star Game
In most weeks, this battle of Top 10 teams would get top billing, and it still might from many others. Still, when I think ACC, I tend to think Clemson well before Florida State, and all things equal, I think both rivalry games will be fierce. Really, they're both five-star, prime matchups. The Gators are 4-1 ATS in their past five road games, but they are just 1-4 ATS in their past five non-conference tilts, and 0-4 ATS in their past four games overall. The Seminoles haven't been much better, going 2-6 ATS against the number in their past eight games, and 2-6 ATS in their past eight home contests against a team with a winning road record. In this series, the favorite is an impressive 13-3 ATS in the past 16 meetings, and the home team is 13-5 ATS in the past 18 meetings. That points to a potential FSU cover, as does the fact Florida is just 2-6 ATS in their past eight matchups with the 'Noles. The under might also be a good play. The under is 6-0 in Florida's past six non-conference games, and the under is 9-1 in Florida's past 10 against ACC opponents. The under is 13-3 in FSU's past 16 battles against SEC teams, and the under is 11-1 in FSU's past 11 non-conference games. The under is also 7-1 in the past eight meetings between the sides in Tallahassee, and 7-1 in the past eight meetings overall.
Saturday - Georgia Tech at Georgia (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Three-Star Game
Even a month ago, Georgia Tech did not look like a bowl-bound team, but they have secured a spot in the ACC Championship Game, representing the beleaguered Coastal Division, and they are now bowl eligible with six wins. They're certainly love to keep building their resume with a signature win over their bitter rivals from Athens, though. GT is 4-1 ATS in their past five games overall, although just 1-4 ATS in their past five against non-conference foes. Georgia is 9-3-1 ATS in its past 13 matchups against ACC opponents, but just 3-7 ATS in the past 10 home games. UGA is also an uninspiring 0-4 ATS in their past four non-conference battles. Georgia Tech is 3-0-1 ATS in the past four meetings at Sanford Stadium, and the road team is 12-3-1 ATS in the past 16 meetings.
Saturday - Miami (Fla.) at Duke (ACC Network/ESPN3, 12:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Two-Star Game
Until a couple of weeks ago, this game was shaping up as the play-in game for the ACC Championship Game berth from the Coastal Division. But Miami has banned themselves from a bowl a second consecutive season, and Duke had their doors blown off by Georgia Tech last week, giving the Yellow Jackets a ticket to postseason play. Duke is already bowl eligible, and can greatly improve their standing with a win Saturday. The Hurricanes have covered five straight games, and they are 12-2 ATS in their past 14 ACC battles, but it will be interesting to see how the kids respond after having their bowl game taken away. Miami is also 7-2 ATS in their past nine road games. Duke has been no slouch at home, either. The Blue Devils are 8-1 ATS in their past nine games at Wallace Wade Stadium, losing their last game against the number on a chilly night Nov. 3 against a high-powered Clemson offense. The Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS in their past five ACC games, and 1-6 ATS in their past six games in the month of November. As such, Miami is installed as about a one-touchdown favorite.
Saturday - Vanderbilt at Wake Forest (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup One-Star Game
Wake Forest can still gain bowl eligibility with a win, but they have a tall order against a very talented Vanderbilt team visiting BB&T Field Saturday. The Commodores have covered four straight games, and they are 5-2 ATS in the past seven games against teams with a losing record. The 'Dores are just 2-5 ATS in their past seven games against ACC opponents, however. The Deacs haven't been great lately, but they are 5-2 ATS in their past seven matchups with SEC opponents. However, they are 0-5 ATS in their past five games against a team with a winning record. All signs point to a Vanderbilt win and cover, especially since the road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings between these sides.
Saturday - Maryland at North Carolina (ESPN GamePlan/ESPN3, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Other Game to Watch
The Terrapins face a 25-point deficit in their final game of the season, and the Tar Heels also wrap up their regular season due to a postseason ban. The Terps are just 6-16 ATS in their past 22 games, and 3-10 ATS in their past 13 ACC battles. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels are 7-1 ATS in their past eight home battles. Those facts might convince you UNC will win in a blowout, but the Terps are 8-1 ATS in the past nine meetings in this series, and 4-1 ATS in the past five trips to Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill.
Saturday - North Carolina State at Boston College (ESPN3, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Other Game to Watch
Somehow, the Wolfpack is eligible for a bowl game, although the feeling around Raleigh is that head coach Tom O'Brien might have just this game, and the mid-tier bowl, before he is searching for another job. A loss to his previous employer at home this weekend would really get the natives in a tizzy. Boston College is 5-1 ATS in the past six games in November, although they are 2-5 ATS in their past seven ACC battles, and 0-5 ATS in their past five road games. N.C. State is 6-1 ATS in the past seven home games against a team with a losing record, and 8-3-1 ATS in the past 12 games overall at Carter-Finley Stadium. However, they are 8-17 ATS in their past 25 games against a team with a losing record. In this series, though, the home team is 7-0 ATS in the past seven matchups.
Saturday - Virginia at Virginia Tech (ESPNU, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Other Game to Watch
The battle of Virginia is usually a fierce game, and this year will be no different. However, it is more because each team is rather mediocre, and evenly matched. Virginia can deal their rivals a huge blow, dropping the Hokies to 5-7 and thus out of the bowl picture. Virginia, however, is just 1-4 ATS in their past five road games, and 1-7 ATS in their past eight conference games. In addition, the Cavaliers are an abysmal 1-11-1 ATS in their past 13 games overall. Virginia Tech has been equally poor against the number, going 1-7 ATS in their past eight games against a team with a losing record, and 3-7-1 ATS in their past 11 games at Lane Stadium. The Cavaliers are just 1-7 ATS in the past eight meetings in this series, and 1-4 ATS in the past five trips to Blacksburg. The favorite is also 9-1 ATS in the past 10 matchups. Looking at the total, the under is 5-0 in the past five battles at Lane Stadium, and the under is 17-8 in the past 25 for UVA, and 6-2-1 in Virginia Tech's past nine games against a team with a losing record.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-22-12 04:07 PM |
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