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CNOTES
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Texas A&M at Alabama
November 9, 2012
Since losing to LSU in overtime at Bryant-Denny Stadium last November, Alabama (9-0 straight up, 5-4 against the spread) had won 12 consecutive games by 17 points or more. In other words, Nick Saban’s team had not been in a 60-minute slugfest in a long time.
Well, the Crimson Tide got just that last Saturday night at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge. Trailing 14-3 at intermission, LSU dominated the second half and bullied its way into the lead at crunch time.
Zach Mettenberger enjoyed his best game as a college football player, completing 24-of-35 throws for 298 yards and one touchdown without an interception. His 14-yard scoring strike to Jarvis Landry gave the Tigers a 17-14 advantage early in the fourth quarter.
When Mettenberger connected with Odell Beckham for a 22-yard gain to Alabama’s 31 with 2:34 remaining, LSU appeared poised to pull off the upset. But Alabama had two timeouts left and used both of them after stuffing a pair of run plays, setting up a third-and-10 situation for LSU.
Although Les Miles had been aggressive all night long and his QB was in a great rhythm, he opted for the safe play. Jeremy Hill rushed for four yards to set up a 45-yard field goal. Drew Alleman’s attempt was off the mark, though, giving the Tide a chance to go 72 yards in 88 seconds.
LSU’s defense had given Alabama QB A.J. McCarron absolutely nothing in the second half, limiting him to one completion for zero yards. But the junior signal caller had different ideas for the biggest drive of his career.
It started with a quick throw to Kevin Norwood, who shook a tackler for first-down yardage and an 18-yard gainer. Most importantly, the clock stopped to move the chains.
Quickly on the ball, McCarron hit Norwood again on a deep out for 15 yards. This time, Norwood got out of bounds at LSU’s 39 with 1:11 remaining.
Now as long as Alabama avoided a sack, the clock wasn’t much of an issue. McCarron went to Norwood again on an out pattern for 11 yards to LSU’s 28. Again, Norwood got out of bounds.
At this point, it was time to get greedy. Forget a game-tying field-goal attempt to force overtime. McCarron smelled blood and was ready to go for the kill. He dropped back and looked to Norwood – again! – in the back of the end zone but the pass fell incomplete after Norwood and the defender went down due to incidental contact.
For the first four plays of the drive, LSU had sat back in coverage with just a four-man rush. On second and 10 with 51 ticks left, the Tigers decided to bring pressure. Unfortunately for them, Alabama had the perfect play called.
McCarron threw a screen pass to freshman running back T.J. Yeldon, who had blockers in front. This looked like trouble from the get-go and it was. Yeldon only needed to make one man miss (he did) before scampering to paydirt.
On LSU’s ensuing drive, it went three and out without getting the clock stopped once. Alabama had escaped with a 21-17 win, but LSU took the cash as an eight-point home underdog. The 38 combined points barely stayed ‘under’ the 38 ½-point total.
Now gamblers must determine where Alabama is at physically and emotionally after playing its toughest game of the season, one it was shooting for all year. The Tide better be ready for another barnburner because Texas A&M (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS) is coming to Tuscaloosa with nothing to lose and one of college football’s premier weapons in redshirt freshman quarterback Johnny ‘Football’ Manziel.
Most betting shops are listing Alabama as a 13 ½-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 56. Bettors can take the Aggies on the money line for a generous plus-400 return (risk $100 to win $400).
Kevin Sumlin’s squad has been the SEC’s biggest surprise, losing only to Florida (20-17) and LSU (24-19) in games it led for most of the first half. This is Texas A&M’s third road assignment in as many weeks, but the road has been good.
The Aggies smashed Mississippi St. by a 38-13 count last week and went into Auburn and emerged with a 63-21 victory two weeks ago. The 63-point eruption on The Plains was the most points an opponent had ever scored in the storied history of Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Manziel has produced video-game numbers all year. He leads the SEC in rushing with 922 yards and 15 touchdowns, averaging 6.7 yards per carry. Manziel has completed 66.6 percent of his passes for 2,527 yards with a 16/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Texas A&M is tops in the SEC and fifth in America in scoring, averaging 44.7 points per game. With that sort of production, you know there are other key pieces in addition to the start signal caller.
Manziel has two of the SEC’s top wide receivers in Mike Evans and Ryan Swope. Evans has hauled in 56 receptions for 802 yards and two TDs, while Swope has 45 catches for 641 yards and five TDs.
RB Ben Malena has rushed for 637 yards and six TDs, averaging 6.6 YPC. Christine Michael has rushed for 381 yards and eight scores.
This offense will go up against a ‘Bama ‘D’ that’s ranked No. 1 in the nation in total defense and scoring defense (9.1 PPG).
McCarron still hasn’t thrown an interception this year and has 19 TD passes.
As a home favorite on Saban’s watch, Alabama has posted a 17-18 spread record.
The ‘under’ is 5-3 overall for the Aggies, 3-2 in their road assignments. Meanwhile, Alabama has seen its totals go 4-4-1 overall, but the ‘under’ is 3-0-1 in its home games.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-10-12 03:10 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12047
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Pac-12 Report - Week 11
November 9, 2012
Saturday - Oregon State at Stanford (FOX, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Five-Star Game
This game has taken on a different look than it would have had in past weeks. The Oregon State Beavers turn to QB Cody Vaz for a second straight game, as he gets the nod over Sean Mannion (knee), who is not quite 100 percent. Redshirt freshman Kevin Hogan gets the start over Josh Nunes, based mostly on performance. Hogan passed for 183 yards and two touchdowns, while giving the Cardinal an added dimension with his tremendous escapability in the pocket. Of course, that success came against an awful Colorado team, not a nationally-ranked and dangerous Oregon State club. Stanford is 5-0 at home this season, and they lead the Pac-12 with a plus-11 turnover margin. The Beavers are 6-0-1 ATS in their past seven games against a team with a winning record, and 7-2-1 ATS in their past 10 games overall. Stanford is 14-5-1 ATS in their past 20 Pac-12 games, and 22-10 ATS in their past 32 in Palo Alto, so something has to give. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this series. However, the under might be the best play here. The under has cashed in four of Oregon State's past five games following an ATS win, and the under is 4-0 in the past four for Stanford overall, and 5-1 in their past six conference games. In this series, the under is 9-2 in the past 11 meetings, and 4-1 in the past five meetings in Palo Alto.
Saturday - Arizona State at Southern California (Pac-12 Network, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Four-Star Game
The Trojans limp into this game losers of two straight, and the Sun Devils would just love to help add to their woes while becoming bowl eligible with a signature win. USC has failed to cover in four of their past five games, and they are 0-4 ATS in their past four games against a team with a winning record. In addition, USC is 0-4 ATS at the Coliseum against a visiting team with a winning record. For AZ State, they haven't had much more success. While they are 5-2 ATS in their past seven games on grass, they are 3-7 ATS in the past 10 Pac-12 games, and 2-5-1 ATS in their past eight road games. In addition, they are also 2-5-1 ATS in their past eight against teams with a winning record. The Sun Devils are also 9-24-2 ATS in their past 35 road contests against a team with a winning home record. This game screams stay away.
Saturday - Utah at Washington (Pac-12 Network, 10:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Three-Star Game
Utah has turned it around lately, at least for bettors. The Utes are 4-1 ATS in their past five games, and 4-1 ATS in their past five conference games. However, Washington has been equally impressive, especially at home, registering wins against Top 10 opponents (at the time) Stanford and Oregon State. They are 4-0 ATS in their past four home games, and 7-1 ATS in their past eight against a team with a losing record. U-Dub is 5-2 ATS in their past seven games overall. However, the under is what really might draw the eye of bettors. The under has cashed in four straight roadies for Utah, and the under is 9-4 in their past 13 games against a team with a winning record. For Washington, the under has cashed in six straight games in Seattle, and is 6-2 in their past eight overall. The under is also 5-2 in their past seven conference clashes.
Saturday - UCLA at Washington State (ESPN2, 10:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Two-Star Game
The UCLA Bruins have been a bit of a tease this season. Just when you think they have it going in the right direction and they should roll over an opponent on their schedule, they falter. It happened against Oregon State earlier this season, although the Beavers turned out to be no slouch. But then it happened again at Cal a few weeks ago, and they were rolled - badly. UCLA is just 5-11 ATS in their past 16 games, so a trip to the Palouse might not be the fuel this team needs to keep going. The Cougs are still trying to find some consistency, and they are ineligible for a bowl following their seventh loss last time out. However, they are 8-2-1 ATS in their past 11 games following an ATS loss, and 6-2 ATS in their past eight games against a team with a winning record. In addition, they are 11-5 ATS in their past 16 games in Pullman against a team with a winning record. If you need further push to pick WaZu, consider the underdog is 6-2 ATS in the past eight matchups in this series. The Bruins are also 2-9 ATS in the past 11 meetings, and just 1-6 ATS in their past seven meetings at Washington State.
Saturday - Oregon at California (ESPN, 10:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup One-Star Game
The high-flying Ducks take their show on the road to Berkeley this weekend. While it is widely expected they will win, and win handily, a cover might not necessarily be a given. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings in this series. Of course, that featured some much better Bears teams. Cal is just 3-8 ATS in their past 11 games, and 2-5 ATS in their past seven Pac-12 games. In addition, Jeff Tedford's group is just 1-5 ATS in their past six home games, one spanking of UCLA last month was the lone exception. The Ducks are 4-0 ATS in their past four games, 6-0 ATS in their past six games on grass, and 6-1 ATS in their past seven games overall. They have also covered in four straight Pac-12 games. In the past five meetings, the under has cashed each time, but are you brave enough to bet an under in an Oregon game? The over has cashed in 23 of Oregon's past 31 conference games, and is 35-17 in their past 52 games overall.
Saturday - Colorado at Arizona (FX, 1:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Other Game to Watch
The Buffaloes have been downright abysmal this season, and they likely can't wait for this nightmare season to end. Colorado is 5-17 ATS in their past 22 games against a team with a winning record, so it isn't just this season that they have struggled. They are 6-20 ATS in their past 26 conference games, and they are a dismal 1-12 ATS in their past 13 games on a grass surface. On the other side, Arizona is 4-1 ATS in their past five home games, 5-2 ATS in their past seven games on grass, but just 1-5 ATS in their past six games against a team with a losing record. The over might be a better play, as the over has come through in 21 of Colorado's past 30 games in the month of November. The over has cashed in five straight games for Arizona, and is 4-0 in their past four games in Tucson. The over is also 16-5 in Arizona's past 21 Pac-12 skirmishes.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-10-12 03:12 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12047
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Big Ten Report - Week 11
November 7, 2012
The week's most important matchup takes place in Bloomington, Indiana. Wisconsin travels to face the Hoosiers and the winner has a head-start in the Leaders division race to represent the division in the Big Ten title game. The Badgers are off of a bye week and have to replace their starting quarterback while Indiana is off of a come-from-behind victory over Iowa. ASA analyzes this matchup as well as every other Big Ten matchup in this week's breakdown.
Indiana (+7) vs. Wisconsin - 12:00 PM EST - ESPN2
IU: Last week vs. Iowa: W 24-21
UW: Last week - BYE
This is the biggest game in Bloomington in recent memory. The Hoosiers can pull even with Wisconsin and would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker for the Leaders Division spot in the Big Ten title game if they can win their third straight conference game. Despite the five losses, the Hoosiers have been in every game they've played. Only one of their five losses was by more than four points. In last week's win over Iowa, Indiana fell behind 14-0 early in the 1st quarter. They battled back, thanks to 406 passing yards from QB's Coffman and Sudfeld, and won 24-21. Coffman and Sudfeld have combined to complete 63% passes this season with 17 touchdowns and just five interceptions. The defense is getting better, as it has allowed just 31 total points over the past two weeks. They do rank 108th in rush defense, and they'll have to shore that up as one of the nation's premier power-running offenses comes to town.
The Badgers have had two weeks off to try and figure out their new situation as starter Joel Stave will miss the remainder of the season with a broken collarbone. Curt Phillips and Danny O'Brien have been battling it out and coaches haven't indicated who will start; but we anticipate both quarterbacks seeing the field. The Badgers managed just 19 yards on 37 carries in the Badgers last game loss to Michigan State two weeks ago. RB's Ball and White look to get back on track against this porous Indiana rush-defense. Defensively this will be the best passing attack that Wisconsin has faced thus far. The Badgers pass-defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete just 55% this season, but they've surrendered 15 touchdown passes with just four interceptions. Still, this unit hasn't surrendered more than 16 points in the last four games.
Recent history: Wisconsin has won seven straight in this series by an average of 33.5 points and is 5-1 ATS over the past six. Last year the Badgers piled up 332 rush yards in a 59-7 win. Wisco has scored 83 and 59 points in back-to-back wins over the Hoosiers.
Trends: Wisconsin is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games and 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games as a Big Ten road favorite. Indiana is 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall. The last five times these two have met the score has gone 'over' the total.
Injury report: Badgers' star LT Rick Wagner is poised to return to the starting lineup after missing two weeks with a right knee injury.
Nebraska (-7) vs. Penn State - 3:30 PM EST - ABC
UN: Last week at Michigan State: W 28-24
PSU: Last week at Purdue: W 34-9
The Huskers are in first place in the Legends division, but they can't clinch title yet.
For the second consecutive road game, Nebraska faced a double-digit deficit in the fourth quarter. And once again, the Huskers found a way to win. QB Taylor Martinez overcame three turnovers to fire the game-winning touchdown pass with six seconds remaining. He also led Nebraska with 205 rush yards and two scores. Overall the Huskers tallied 313 rush yards on a 7.8 YPC average while the defense limited MSU QB Maxwell to just 9-of-27 completions. They'll try to avoid a "hangover" after that big road win and get another quality win over the Nittany Lions.
Penn State isn't eligible for the Big Ten championship or any bowl, so they will play spoiler in both division races. Chances are the Nittany Lions will have an impact on the races with this game and remaining ones against both Indiana and Wisconsin. The Lions bounced back well from their first Big Ten loss two weeks ago with a big win at Purdue last Saturday. PSU was dominant on both sides of the ball, racking up 506 total yards and 25 first downs. QB McGloin passed for over 300 yards with two touchdowns and RB Zwinak ran for 134 yards. The defensive unit held Purdue to just 87 rush yards on a 3.3 YPC average and nine total points (Purdue scored a meaningless touchdown in the final seconds). Penn State is 3-0 in Big Ten road games so far, winning by an average score of 36-10.
Recent history: Last year Penn State faced Nebraska in the first game in over 40 years without head coach Joe Paterno. The Nittany Lions put together a valiant effort, but Nebraksa won 17-14 at home. No doubt PSU will be motivated to avenge that loss with a big home win on Saturday.
Trends: Penn State is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games and 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall. Nebraska is 5-1 ATS in its last five home games.
Injury report: Penn State DT Jordan Hill and TE Kyle Carter are both day-to-day for this week's game at Nebraska, coach Bill O'Brien said. RB Curtis Dukes is out for the Nebraska game.
Michigan (-11) vs. Northwestern - 12:00 PM EST - ESPN
UM: Last week at Minnesota: W 35-13
NU: Last week - BYE
The loser of this game is all but eliminated from the Legends division. Michigan did just fine last week without QB Robinson in the lineup. The Wolves started a little slow, leading just 14-7 at halftime over Minnesota. But backup QB Devin Gardner passed for 234 yards and two scores while adding a rushing touchdown - leading the Wolves to a 35-13 victory. Defensively Michigan frustrated Minnesota's freshman QB and also held the Gophers to just 3.3 YPC rushing. Michigan ranks 1st nationally against the pass this season, but they've been vulnerable to strong rushing attacks. Northwestern brings one of the top rushing offenses to town this weekend.
Northwestern has seemingly settled on QB Kain Colter as the full-time option after Siemian didn't get much playing time last game. Northwestern had a huge day offensively against the Hawkeyes two weeks ago. The Wildcats controlled the ball with 49 rushing attempts for 349 yards (7.1 YPC). QB Colter and RB Mark each topped 160 rush yards while the defense held Iowa to just 17 points.
Recent history: Michigan is 6-1 straight-up against the Wildcats the last seven meetings. Northwestern's one victory over that span was in the Big House in 2010. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Last season the Wolverines tallied 541 total yards in the 42-24 victory over the Wildcats. QB Robinson accounted for 454 and four touchdowns alone in that game.
Trends: Northwestern is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games overall and 4-1 ATS in its last five conference games. Michigan is just 10-26 ATS in its last 36 conference games. The final score has remained 'under' the total in four of the last five meetings.
Injury report: Brady Hoke hasn't stated whether or not QB Robinson will play this weekend. Hoke only indicated that he's "getting healthier." Northwestern hopes to regain the services of injured defensive backs Nick VanHoose and Quinn Evans, who are both questionable for this game.
Illinois (+3) vs. Minnesota - 3:30 PM EST - Big Ten Network
UI: Last week at Ohio State: L 22-52
UM: Last week vs. Michigan: L 13-35
Minnesota can gain postseason eligibility for the first time since 2009 with a win here over the Illini. The Gophers are off of a disappointing loss against Michigan where they failed to capitalize on a Robinson-less Wolverine squad. Minnesota squandered numerous chances in the red-zone and couldn't stop Michigan's back-up QB. The good news is that it was another promising start for freshman quarterback Philip Nelson, who passed for 142 yards and one touchdown. The defense will try to get back on track this week against a hapless Illinois offense.
Illinois is officially not going bowling this postseason after its seventh loss of the season last week to Ohio State. The Illini were only losing 6-7 at the end of the first quarter to OSU, but by halftime it was 31-6. The offense managed just 170 total yards, 2.3 yards per carry, and QB Scheelhaase completed 19 passes for 96 yards. Defensively Illinois allowed an astonishing 567 yards and 32 first downs. This D unit actually features a lot of talent, but it hasn't stood a chance in most games this season because their offense can't stay on the field.
Recent history: Minnesota has won its last three trips to Champaign (3-0 ATS) and is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall. Minnesota held Illinois to just 160 yards and 11 first downs in last year's 27-7 victory in Minneapolis. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
Trends: Minnesota is 2-5 ATS in its last seven road games and 1-4 ATS in its last five conference games. Illinois is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 conference games. The Illini have failed to cover six straight games overall.
Injury report: Illinois LB Jonathan Brown is out for Saturday's game against Minnesota, coach Tim Beckman confirmed. Brown was an all-Big Ten player in 2011 who is tied for the team lead in tackles and leads the team in tackles for loss. Minnesota WR A.J. Barker is doubtful for the Illinois game. Barker is the Gophers' top receiver with 577 yards & 7 TD's.
Iowa (-5) vs. Purdue - 12:00 PM EST - Big Ten Network
UI: Last week at Indiana: L 21-24
PU: Last week vs. Penn State: L 9-34
Talk about a matchup of two teams that could really use a win. The Boilers have been in a five-week tailspin that might well cost head coach Danny Hope his job. All but one of those losses was by 16+ points and all five were by an average of 21 PPG. Purdue still has a glimmer of hope for a bowl if they win out this season, but things definitely aren't looking up. The defense has allowed an average of 38 points per game over the last six games and offensively the quarterbacks are stalling everything. The trio of TerBush, Marve, and Henry hasn't gotten things done. The Boilers might actually be happy they're on the road this week after the stands at Ross-Ade stadium were mostly empty last Saturday.
Iowa has lost three straight in disheartening fashion after a promising 2-0 start in league play. The Hawkeyes still have a chance to get to a bowl but must win here and then upset either Michigan on the road or Nebraska at home - so chances are pretty slim. The Hawkeyes' loss last week slipped them below .500 for the first time since 2007. Despite a 14-0 start at Indiana in the first seven minutes, the Hawkeyes managed just seven points the rest of the way in the 21-24 loss. QB Vandenberg continued to struggle with just one touchdown and a bad interception in the end-zone. The defense also allowed over 400 yards passing with three touchdowns.
Recent history: Iowa is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in the previous six meetings. Iowa has also won six straight meetings at home and is 4-2 ATS in those games. The Hawks won 31-21 at Purdue last season. QB Vandenberg tossed three touchdowns and Iowa tallied 135 rush yards.
Trends: Purdue is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a double-digit loss at home. The Boilermakers are also 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven conference games. Iowa is 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss. The Hawkeyes are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 conference games.
Injury report: Iowa likely will be without RB Mark Weisman for the second straight game Saturday against Purdue. Purdue WR O.J. Ross likely will play this week against Illinois while RB Raheem Mostert and DT Brandon Taylor are doubtful.
Ohio State - BYE
OSU: Last week vs. Illinois: W 52-22
OSU has won ten straight, who get a well-deserved bye after thumping Illinois last week. Ohio State is 10-0 for the first time since 2007 as it chases its first perfect season since 2002, when it captured a national title. Ohio State has scored 52 points or more in three Big Ten games. QB Miller and RB Hyde form the Big Ten's most dangerous backfield and the defense continues to make big plays.
Michigan State - BYE
MSU: Last week vs. Nebraska: L 24-28
The Spartans suffered another devastating setback Saturday after having Nebraska on the ropes. MSU's last four losses this season have been by four points or fewer and offensive deficiencies can be to blame. The Spartans have one of the game's elite defenses and a porous passing attack is really holding them back. RB Bell had another big day with 188 yards and two scores, but QB Andrew Maxwell had another rough day (9-of-27 passing). Msu still needs another win to become bowl eligible.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-10-12 03:13 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12047
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ACC Report - Week 11
November 9, 2012
It's Week 11, and thankfully I was able to get back on track with my ACC plays. I sat in chilly conditions at Wallace Wade Stadium with my Clemson buddy Matt, watching the Tigers offense move the ball up and down the field. It was also my guaranteed play of the weekend, so even though I was clad in my Duke blue, I can't say I was terribly disappointed.
Joe Williams's ACC Season Picks:
Period: 8/31/2012 to 11/3/2012
Pick Type: All Picks
Record: 20-12-0 ( 62.5% , +675)
PICK DETAILS
Week Record Total
Week 10 (Nov. 1-3) 3-1 Won (+ 200)
Week 9 (Oct. 25-27) 0-4 Lost (- 445)
Week 8 (Oct. 18-20) 2-0 Won (+ 200)
Week 7 (Oct. 11-13) 0-0 - (+/-0)
Week 6 (Oct. 4-6) 2-1 Won (+90)
Week 5 (Sept. 27-29) 3-1 Won (+190)
Week 4 (Sept. 19-22) 3-1 Won (+190)
Week 3 (Sept. 13-15) 3-2 Won (+80)
Week 2 (Sept. 6-8) 2-1 Won (+90)
Week 1 (Aug. 31-Sept. 3) 2-1 Won (+80)
Saturday - Notre Dame at Boston College (ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Five-Star Game
In future years when Notre Dame joins the ACC for all sports except for football, this game would count against their five-team requirement for the football schedule. Over the years, BC has been a thorn in the side of the Irish. When things have been good, average or bad in the past, the Eagles have really stepped up against the gold-domers. It might officially be considered their bowl game this season, especially since they were eliminated from bowl contention with a loss last week. An upset this time around would send shockwaves throughout the college football world. Notre Dame is just 2-5-1 ATS in their past eight games against a team with a losing record, and 1-4 ATS in their past five games in the month of November. BC has not been much better, though, going 5-13 ATS in their past 18 home games, and 1-6 ATS in the past seven overall. In addition, the dog is 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings, but the road team is also 7-2 ATS in the span. So it might be a good idea to shy away from the spread. All signs appear to point to the under for the total. The under is 6-1-1 in ND's past eight road games, and 13-3 in their past 16 against the ACC. The under is 5-1 in BC's past six against Independents, 11-4 in their past 15 home games, and 34-16-1 in their past 51 overall. In the past five meetings, the under has cashed each time.
Saturday - Maryland at Clemson (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Four-Star Game
This game has the potential to be a real beatdown, as no one except for Florida State has been able to slow the Clemson offense. The Terps are just 5-15 ATS in their past 20 games overall, and a dismal 2-9 ATS in their past 11 ACC contests. In addition, they are 0-5 ATS in the month of November, including a loss last week against Ga. Tech. Clemson, meanwhile, has covered six straight games, and they are 5-1 ATS in the past six against a team with a losing record. In this series, though, the road team is 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings, and Maryland is 5-1 ATS in their past six visits to Clemson. However, that can mostly be thrown out the window, because those Maryland squads weren't likely using a linebacker at the quarterback position after losing their first three signal callers to season-ending injuries. Like the ND-BC game above, the under might be the play. The under is 5-0 in five straight meetings in this series at Clemson, and 10-2 in the past 12 meetings overall.
Saturday - Wake Forest at North Carolina State (GamePlan/ESPN3, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Three-Star Game
North Carolina State was embarrassed last weekend against ACC doormat Virginia at home, leading some Wolfpack faithful to howl for the dismissal of head coach Tom O'Brien. A loss this weekend, and it might punch his ticket to the unemployment line. Both of these teams come in searching for their sixth win of the season, so someone is going to finish the day eligible for one of the ACC's bowl bids. Wake Forest is 4-1 ATS in the past five road games, but just 4-10 ATS in their past 14 against a team with a winning record. N.C. State is now just 1-4 ATS in their past five ACC games, and 1-4 ATS in their past five games overall. They've been a hard team to figure, as they were good enough to nip Florida State, but then lose to Virginia. The home team is 13-3 ATS in the past 16 meetings, but Wake is 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings. It might be a good idea to get your action elsewhere, or just flip a coin.
Saturday - Georgia Tech at North Carolina (ACC Network/ESPN3, 12:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Two-Star Game
The Tar Heels have been on a roll, covering seven straight games at Kenan Stadium. They are also a solid 4-1 ATS in their past five home games against a team with a losing road record. The Jackets haven't had a lot of success this season, going 2-6 ATS in their past eight games against a team with a winning record. They are also 4-9 ATS in their past 13 games following a bye week. The over has cashed in six of Ga. Tech's past seven games, and is 4-1 in their past five ACC games. The over is also 6-1 in UNC's past seven home games, and 4-1 in their past five overall. However, the under has cashed in four of the past five meetings between these sides in Chapel Hill.
Saturday - Miami (Fla.) at Virginia (/ANCESPN3, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup One-Star Game
The Hurricanes blow into Charlottesville looking to continue their solid play. They blasted Virginia Tech last Thursday night at home, covering for the sixth straight conference game. Miami is 5-1 ATS in their past six games overall. In addition, Miami is 6-2 ATS in their past eight road games, so they might be a very solid play in this one. Virginia stunned N.C. State on the road in Raleigh last week, piling up a huge lead and winning in surprising fashion. While Virginia is 4-1 ATS in their past five games in the month of November, the Cavaliers are just 1-5 ATS in their past six conference games, 1-8-1 ATS in their past 10 games on grass, and 1-9-1 ATS in their past 11 games overall. In addition, they are 0-5-1 ATS in their past six games at Scott Stadium.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-10-12 03:14 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12047
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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 11
Saturday's games
Top games
Missouri lost three of last four games, is 1-5 in first season of SEC play (4-5 overall), but they played tough defense last week, losing 14-7 (+17) at Florida; Tigers outgained Florida 335-276 but threw four picks, were -3 in turnovers. It was 4th time in five weeks Mizzou held opponent under 20 points. Tennessee has opposite problem; they lost four of last five games, with only win 55-48 over Troy of Sun Belt (TY, 722-718, Troy); Vols have only two takeaways in last four games, have allowed 23+ points in first half in each of last six games. Tennessee is 1-3 as favorite this year, 0-3 at home; Mizzou is 2-3 as underdog, 2-1 on road. SEC home favorites are 13-10 vs spread in conference play. All eight of Tennessee’s lined games went over total; six of last seven Mizzou games stayed under.
Stanford beat Oregon State last two years with Luck under center (38-0/38-13), but are still just 4-7 in last 11 games vs Beavers; Cardinal is +8 in turnovers in last four series games, winning 36-28/38-0 in last two played here. Favorites covered six of last nine series games (3-4 in last seven here). 7-1 Beavers won SU all four times they were underdog this year; they’re 14-6 vs spread in last 20 games as road dogs. Stanford was held to 13 points in both losses (@Washington/@ Notre Dame) this year; they’re 1-3 as home favorites this year, after having covered 14 of previous 21 games in that role. Cardinal hasn’t turned ball over in last two games, has +11 turnover ratio this season. Pac-12 home favorites are 12-9 vs spread in league play. Both teams are starting QB who began season as the backup.
LSU has to bounce back from huge effort/bigger disappointment in last-minute loss vs Alabama last week; they’ve won last 12 games vs Mississippi State, and covered 15 of last 18 (3-3 in last six). Bulldogs lost last seven visits here (2-5 vs spread), with four of last five by 18+ points; they’ve been crushed 38-7/38-13 last two weeks (trailed both games 24-0 at half), after starting season 7-0, so they need big effort here to avoid freefall (finish with Arkansas/Ole Miss). Tigers are 3-4 as favorites this year, 2-2 at home; their last three I-A wins were all by five or less points. Tigers have 20 takeaways in last seven games, are +8 in turnovers last three games. Seven of eight MSU games, four of last five LSU games stayed under the total. Big number for LSU to cover with possible post-Bama hangover, but they’re 12-7-1 vs spread in game following last 20 losses.
Fresno State covered eight of last nine games, four of five on road; only one of last five opponents scored more than 20 points. Bulldogs covered seven of last nine as a road favorite. Nevada’s defense has fallen apart, allowing 37-39-48 points in last three games; they’ve scored 31+ points in all three losses this year- since ’02 they’re 10-7 as home underdogs, 2-0 since ’10. In last four games, Nevada foes converted 32 of 59 on 3rd down. Wolf Pack won last four games with Fresno State by average score of 43-28; underdogs are 6-3-1 vs spread in last 10 series games, 4-1 in last five played here, with Bulldogs losing last two visits, 35-34/41-28. MWC home underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in league play. Four of last five Fresno games stayed under total; last three Nevada games went over.
Other Notes
-- Wyoming failed to cover last five tries as a road favorite.
-- Temple is 10-3-1 vs spread in last 14 games as a home underdog.
-- Memphis won/covered its last six games vs Tulane.
-- Underdogs covered seven of last nine Houston-Tulsa games.
-- Michigan covered just six of last 19 conference home games.
-- UL-Lafayette covered 14 of last 16 tries as a road underdog. Underdogs covered seven of last eight Virginia-Miami games.
-- Visiting team covered last six Texas-Iowa State games.
-- Rutgers covered six of its last seven games with Army.
-- Underdog covered five of last six Kansas-Texas Tech games.
-- Syracuse is 3-10 vs spread in last 13 Big East home games.
-- Road team is 11-5-1 vs spread in Ole Miss-Vanderbilt games.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-10-12 03:16 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
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NCAAF
Saturday, November 10
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Oregon State at Stanford: What bettors need to know
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Oregon State at Stanford (-5, 44.5)
Redshirt freshman Kevin Hogan will make his first start at quarterback when No. 15 Stanford hosts No. 12 Oregon State on Saturday in a critical Pac-12 North showdown. The teams are tied for second with 5-1 records, and both play first-place Oregon in the next two weeks. With Stanford and Oregon State ranked in the nation’s top 20 in scoring defense, the game figures to be a low-scoring contest. Stanford is hoping a change in quarterback improves its passing offense, which ranks ninth in the Pac-12. At Oregon State, quarterback Cody Vaz is set to make his second straight start in place of Sean Mannion, who lost the job after throwing four interceptions two weeks ago in a loss to Washington. The Beavers are 3-1 on the road this season, while Stanford has won seven straight home games and 18 of its last 19.
TV: 3 p.m. ET, FOX.
LINE: Stanford -5, O/U 44.5
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-50s with a 30 percent chance of showers. Winds will blow out of the NNW at 8 mph.
ABOUT OREGON STATE (7-1, 5-1 Pac-12): The Beavers are 7-1 for the first time since 2000, and are second in the Pac-12 in scoring defense behind Stanford. Senior cornerback Jordan Poyer, who leads the Beavers with five interceptions, is expected to play after missing last Saturday’s 36-26 victory over Arizona State with a knee injury. Terron Ward rushed for a career-high 146 yards last week, but rushing yards figure to be at a premium with Stanford ranked No. 1 and Oregon State No. 5 in the nation in run defense. Leading rusher Storm Woods (knee) is expected to return Saturday after sitting out last week.
ABOUT STANFORD (7-2, 5-1): The Cardinal are allowing only 16.6 points per game, and their defense has held the last three opponents to a combined minus-36 rushing yards. Stanford's pass defense ranks 10th in the conference, but safety Ed Reynolds recorded his third interception return for a touchdown during last week’s 48-0 victory over Colorado. Stepfan Taylor ranks fourth in the Pac-12 in rushing and is 53 yards away from reaching 1,000 yards for the third season in his career. Hogan gets the start at quarterback over Josh Nunes after passing for 184 yards and two touchdowns and running seven times for 48 yards against the Buffaloes.
TRENDS:
* Under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Beavers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 4-0 in Stanford’s last four games overall.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Stanford has won the last two games against Oregon State and three of the previous four, including last season’s 38-13 victory in Corvallis.
2. Oregon State is 51-3 since the start of the 2004 season when leading after three quarters.
3. Stanford leads the conference in turnover margin at plus-11.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-10-12 03:17 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12047
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NCAAF
Saturday, November 10
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Texas A&M at Alabama: What bettors need to know
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Texas A&M at Alabama (-13.5, 57)
Top-ranked Alabama dodged a major bullet in its national title defense last week, but the Crimson Tide face another tough test Saturday with No. 14 Texas A&M traveling to Tuscaloosa for the first time. The teams are meeting for the first time since 1988; Alabama has won three of four previous meetings. The Crimson Tide can clinch the SEC West title by beating the Aggies or by winning their Iron Bowl matchup with Auburn on Nov. 24. Texas A&M would have to beat Alabama and Missouri (Nov. 23) and also have the Crimson Tide lose to Auburn to make its way to the SEC Championship Game.
That's a far-fetched scenario for the Aggies, not least of all because it involves knocking off the Crimson Tide. Alabama won its first eight games by an average of 32.5 points before needing a late touchdown pass from A.J. McCarron to pull out a 21-17 win at LSU last week. The Crimson Tide's vaunted defense did give up big chunks of yardage on the ground and through the air against LSU, and it will face a major challenge against the Aggies and freshman quarterback Johnny Manziel.
TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS.
LINE: Alabama -13.5, O/U 57.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-70s with clear skies. Winds will blow out of the south at 6 mph.
ABOUT TEXAS A&M (7-2, 4-2 SEC): The Aggies have proven they can compete with the SEC's powers in their first year in the league - their only losses were 20-17 vs. Florida and 24-19 vs. LSU - but this is their last chance to knock off one of the conference's elite teams. Coach Kevin Sumlin's offense, led by Manziel, has averaged 559.6 total yards, which is on pace to break the SEC record of 534.4 set by Florida in 1995. The Aggies rank fifth in the nation in total offense and fourth in scoring (44.67).
ABOUT ALABAMA (9-0, 6-0): The Crimson Tide looked vulnerable for the first time this season against LSU, but McCarron and the offense were up to the task down the stretch. The defense likely will face its biggest test yet, but Alabama has the athletes to contain Manziel much like LSU did. Alabama also has a weapon in senior Jeremy Shelley, the only kicker in the nation who has not missed an extra point or field goal this season. Shelley is 43-for-43 on PATs and has made all nine of his field goal attempts.
TRENDS:
* Under is 3-0-1 in Crimson Tide’s last four home games.
* Under is 5-1 in Aggies’ last six vs. a team with a winning record.
* Aggies are 1-7 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record.
* Crimson Tide is 1-5 ATS in its last six November games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Alabama and Louisiana Tech are the only teams in the nation that have not thrown an interception this season. McCarron has thrown a school-record 289 passes without a pick.
2. Texas A&M has scored first in every game this season and 14 straight dating to 2011. The Aggies have scored on seven of nine opening drives this year.
3. Alabama has scored in 151 consecutive games, the longest streak in program history.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-10-12 03:18 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
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College football betting weather watch: Week 11
Northwestern at Michigan (-8.5, 51.5)
Site: Michigan Stadium
Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-50s under mostly cloudy skies. Winds will blow from the south at 12 mph.
Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan (2.5, 62)
Site: Rynearson Stadium
Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s and overcast conditions. Winds will blow from the SSE at 13 mph.
Colorado at Arizona (-29, 66)
Site: Arizona Stadium
Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-50s with a 35 percent chance of showers. Winds will blow from the west at 14 mph.
Penn State at Nebraska (-8, 51)
Site: Memorial Stadium
Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-70s with a 25 chance of thunderstorms. Winds will be strong out of the south at 23 mph.
West Virginia at Oklahoma State (-10, 77)
Site: Boone Pickens Stadium
Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-70s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the SSE at 27 mph.
Baylor at Oklahoma (-21.5, 76)
Site: Oklahoma Memorial Stadium
Forecasts are projecting temperatures in the low-70s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will gust out of the south at 26 mph.
Wyoming at New Mexico (2, 54)
Site: University Stadium
Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-50s and a 40 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the west at 24 mph.
Air Force at San Diego State (-7.5, 58)
Site: Qualcomm Stadium
Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s with a 35 percent chance of showers. Winds will prevail out of the WNW at 13 mph.
San Jose State at New Mexico State (20.5, 55)
Site: Aggie Memorial Stadium
Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-60s with a 20 percent chance of rain. Winds will be strong out of the SW at 25 mph.
Western Michigan at Buffalo (2.5, 54)
Site: UB Stadium
Forecasts are projecting temperatures in the low-50s with a 45 percent chance of showers. Winds will blow out of the ESE at 9 mph.
UNLV at Colorado State (1, 53.5)
Site: Hughes Stadium
Forecasts are calling for temperatures just below the freezing mark with a 60 percent chance of snow. Winds will be light out of the north.
Idaho at BYU (-39.5, 49)
Site: LaVell Edwards Stadium
Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-20s with a 55 percent chance of snow. Winds will be light out of the WNW.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-10-12 03:20 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12047
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Hawaii at Air Force
November 16, 2012
Norm Chow finally got his first head-coaching job when he was hired at Hawaii in January. Things haven’t gone according to his wishes, however.
When the Warriors take the field tonight at Air Force, they will be looking to snap a seven-game losing streak both straight up and against the spread. Their only win came over an FCS foe, Lamar, in a 54-2 home win in a non-lined affair.
Most books have installed Air Force (5-5 SU, 3-7 ATS) as a 22-point favorite with a total of 60. 5Dimes has the Warriors available on the money line for an 11/1 payout (risk $100 to win $1,100).
Troy Calhoun’s team has lost back-to-back games, including a 28-9 loss last week at San Diego St. as a seven-point underdog. The Falcons enjoyed a 393-268 advantage in total offense, but they couldn’t overcome four turnovers.
The 37 combined points stayed way ‘under’ the 57 ½-point total.
Air Force has won four of its five home games, going 2-3 versus the number. During Calhoun’s six-year tenure, the Falcons are 11-16 ATS as home favorites. Even worse, they are 3-13 ATS in such spots since 2010.
Air Force is led by senior quarterback Connor Dietz, who has completed 62.5 percent of his passes for 1,095 yards with a 7/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Dietz has rushed for 606 yards and five touchdowns, averaging 5.2 yards per carry.
Senior RB Cody Getz paces Air Force in rushing, producing 1,006 yards and eight TDs. Getz averages 7.3 YPC.
The Falcons are scoring 30.6 points per game and giving up 28.9 PPG.
Hawaii (1-8 SU, 1-7 ATS) is coming off a 49-14 loss to Boise St. as a 28-point home underdog. Mike Edwards had a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown to tie the game at 7-7 early in the first quarter, but that was the highlight of the game for the Warriors. They didn’t score again until John Lister’s one-yard TD plunge with 5:35 remaining.
Hawaii committed five turnovers against the Broncos, who played turnover-free football.
UH has lost by 15 or more points in each of its five road assignments, going 1-4 ATS. The Warriors have lost by scores of 49-10, 47-0, 52-14, 42-27 and 45-10. They are ranked No. 112 in the nation in scoring, averaging a pedestrian 19.6 points per game.
Things aren’t any better on defense, either. UH is No. 123 in scoring defense, giving up 43.9 PPG.
One of the few bright spots for UH has been redshirt freshman running back Will Gregory, who has rushed for 561 yards and two TDs, averaging 5.0 yards per carry. Starting QB Sean Schroeder has struggled with a 9/10 TD-INT ratio.
Hawaii’s third-leading receiver, sophomore Trevor Davis, is listed as ‘questionable’ with a neck injury. Davis has 17 receptions for 235 yards and two touchdowns.
Air Force senior linebacker Alex Means, who had 77 tackles and six sacks last year, is listed as ‘questionable’ with a thigh injury. Also, the Falcons have three other starting defensive players (safety Anthony Wooding, safety Jay Fullam and LB Jamil Cooks) who are ‘out’ with season-ending injuries.
The ‘under’ is 6-3 overall for the Falcons, 2-2 in their four home games with a total. The ‘over’ is 5-3 overall for Hawaii, but the ‘under’ is 3-2 its road assignments.
These teams haven’t met since 2001 when Hawaii spanked the Falcons by a 52-30 count as a 12-point home favorite.
Kickoff is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--North Carolina captured a 37-13 win last night at Virginia as a 3 ½-point road favorite. The Cavaliers fell to a pathetic 1-9-1 ATS.
--There is a second college football game tonight in South Florida as Florida Atlantic hosts Fla. International as a 1 ½-point home favorite. The Owls and Panthers have combined for a 5-15 SU record this year. ESPNU will have the telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
--FAU has covered the spread in eight consecutive games.
--Nevada has failed to cover the number in six consecutive games and eight of its last nine. The Wolf Pack is favored by 10 Saturday at New Mexico.
--Southern Cal running back Silas Redd is ‘questionable’ at UCLA due to an ankle injury. Redd, who missed last week’s win over Arizona St., has rushed for 732 yards and nine TDs, averaging 5.4 YPC.
--Northwestern will be without two defensive starters at Michigan St. LB Collin Ellis is ‘out’ with an undisclosed injury and Nick VanHoose will sit due to a back ailment. The Wildcats are 9-1 ATS, while the Spartans have limped to a 3-7 ATS mark.
--The nation’s top-five ATS teams are Utah St. (9-0-1), Fresno St. (10-1), Northwestern (9-1), Kansas St. (8-1-1) and Ball St. (8-2).
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-17-12 12:31 AM |
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