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NFL
Week 11
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Packers at Lions: What bettors need to know
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Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (3, 52)
The Green Bay Packers entered their bye as one of the league's hottest teams and came out of it having inched closer to the NFC North-leading Chicago Bears. The Packers will look to ride the momentum as they seek their fifth consecutive win against the host Detroit Lions on Sunday. Aaron Rodgers set an absurdly high standard in piloting Green Bay to a 15-1 mark in 2011-12, but his stellar play during the winning streak has mirrored that of his MVP season. A loss could deliver a fatal blow to the postseason hopes of the Lions, who are in the cellar of the only division that features three teams at least two games over .500. The Packers have also owned Detroit, winning 12 of the last 13 meetings.
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.
LINE: Packers -3, O/U 52.
ABOUT THE PACKERS (6-3): Rodgers has thrown for 15 touchdowns and one interception in the last four games despite missing his favorite two targets in the latter two. James Jones and second-year standout Randall Cobb have elevated their games in the absences of injured wideouts Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings, who combined for 24 scores last season. Jones is tied for second in the league with eight TD receptions and Cobb has five scores in the last three games. Cobb also contributed to a rushing attack that produced a season-high 176 yards in a 31-17 win over Arizona prior to the bye. Linebacker Clay Matthews, who leads the team with nine sacks, has been ruled out with a hamstring injury.
ABOUT THE LIONS (4-5): Detroit continued a troubling season-long trend of falling behind early and having to play catch-up in last week's 34-24 loss in Minnesota that halted a two-game winning streak. Matthew Stafford threw for 329 yards and three touchdowns, but each score came after the Lions fell into a 16-3 hole early in the third quarter. Calvin Johnson, who has been bothered by a sore knee, came to life with 11 receptions for 207 yards and a touchdown but has only found the end zone twice after finishing second in the NFL with 16 TD receptions last season. A string of early deficits has contributed to the dramatic inconsistency in the running game, which managed a meager 60 yards against the Vikings after amassing 149 yards and four TDs the previous week.
TRENDS:
* Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. NFC North.
* Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Over is 5-1 in Packers’ last six games overall.
* Over is 8-2-1 in Lions’ last 11 games overall.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Rodgers is the first quarterback in league history to throw 25 TD passes in the first nine games in back-to-back seasons.
2. Johnson had a career-high 244 yards and a TD on 11 catches in a 45-41 loss at Green Bay on Jan. 1, a game Rodgers sat out.
3. The Lions play five of their last seven at home but they have to face conference leaders Houston (8-1) and Atlanta (8-1) along with Chicago (7-2). They also play at Green Bay next month.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-18-12 05:10 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
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NFL
Week 11
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Colts at Patriots: What bettors need to know
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Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-9.5, 54.5)
Winners of four straight, the Indianapolis Colts take a step up in competition when they visit Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in a marquee matchup on Sunday. Led by rookie Andrew Luck and inspired by their coach Chuck Pagano, who is battling leukemia, the Colts have surprisingly become a legitimate playoff contender.
The Patriots continue to roll on offense. Tom Brady has thrown at least one touchdown pass in his last 41 games and New England has added a potent ground game ranked fourth in the NFL. But the Patriots continue to struggle on defense, leaving the door open for some anxious moments late in games.
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.
LINE: Patriots -9.5, O/U 54.5.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-40s under sunny skies. Wind won’t be a factor.
ABOUT THE COLTS (6-3): All four of Indianapolis’ victories in its current winning streak have come against teams who currently sport sub-.500 records. The Colts are 5-1 since Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia as his situation has galvanized the team. The players and even a cheerleader have shaved their heads in support of the coach. Luck has rushed for five scores and thrown 10 TD passes for the NFL’s fifth-ranked offense. The favorite for NFL Rookie of the Year admits to being a longtime fan of Brady and is eager for his chance in one of the league’s top rivalries. Indianapolis does have several injuries. Linebacker Dwight Freeney has been less than 100 percent for most of the season and the Colts placed CB Jerraud Powers on IR earlier in the week.
ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (6-3): New England has won the past two games in the series but it is going to have to straighten out things on defense. While the Patriots continue to score with ease, leading the NFL in scoring by averaging 33.2 points., the defense ranks 29th against the pass and 25th overall. Last week, lowly Buffalo scored 31 points and had the ball in the final minute looking to pull off the upset before Devin McCourty picked off a pass by Ryan Fitzpatrick in the end zone. Still, New England has won three straight overall and is in firm control of first place in the AFC East Division.
TRENDS:
* Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
* Under is 4-0 in Colts’ last four games overall.
* Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four games in New England.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Brady needs two TD passes to reach 20 for the 10th time in his career.
2. Pats tight end Aaron Hernandez was scratched from last week’s game and is questionable with a nagging ankle injury.
3. DB Robert Mathis is expected to play after missing the past two games for the Colts.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-18-12 05:12 PM |
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CNOTES
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NFL
Week 11
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Monday Night Football: Bears at 49ers
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Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (-7, 37)
Monday's night's marquee matchup between the host San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears hardly lacked for storylines, pitting a pair of legitimate Super Bowl contenders featuring two of the top defenses in the league. However, it's the off-field news that has dominated the headlines leading into the encounter between the division leaders of the NFC West and North. Quarterbacks Alex Smith and Jay Cutler were each knocked out of last week's game with concussions, and on Thursday came the news that 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh was undergoing a minor procedure for an irregular heartbeat.
Harbaugh, according to the team, was expected back at the team's facility Friday. ESPN reported that he made a brief appearance at practice Thursday and was sent home upon the recommendation of team doctors. Smith was given the green-light to practice on a limited basis Wednesday and Thursday wearing a no-contact jersey but still must be medically cleared to play. Cutler did not practice this week and will give way to backup Jason Campbell.
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE: 49ers -7, O/U 37.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s with under partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the south at 9 mph.
ABOUT THE BEARS (7-2): Last season, Cutler had directed the Bears to five straight wins and a 7-3 record before suffering a broken thumb. The Bears went on to lose five straight with untested Caleb Hanie and retread Josh McCown under center. That's the main reason Chicago upgraded its backup plan by signing Campbell. The former Oakland Raiders QB was 11-for-19 for 94 yards in the second half of last week's 13-6 home loss to Houston. Running backs Matt Forte and Michael Bush may get a heavier workload against a defense that has suddenly been more vulnerable against the run, allowing a pair of 100-yard rushers. Brandon Marshall has 51 catches and six touchdowns in the last six games, and Chicago will again lean on a defense that has a league-high 19 interceptions, including seven for TDs.
ABOUT THE 49ERS (6-2-1): San Francisco would be in a tie with Chicago for the second-best record in the NFC had David Akers converted a 41-yard field goal in overtime in last week's 24-24 tie with St. Louis. The 49ers also benefited from two penalties in OT that prevented the Rams from winning. One big positive for the Niners was the play of second-year QB Colin Kaepernick after Smith was forced to leave the game with blurred vision. Kaepernick guided San Francisco to 17 fourth-quarter points, completing 11 of 17 passes for 117 yards and running for 66 yards and a touchdown on eight carries. Frank Gore just missed his fourth 100-yard game, rushing for 97 yards and a TD, and Michael Crabtree had five catches for 70 yards and his third scoring reception in two games.
TRENDS:
* Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
* 49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. NFC foes.
* Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Under is 5-0-1 in 49ers’ last six vs. a team with a winning record.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. San Francisco and Chicago rank 1-2 in the league in fewest points allowed with 14.1 and 14.8, respectively.
2. Campbell, a first-round pick of Washington in 2005, has made 70 career starts. He has thrown for 74 TDs and 50 interceptions.
3. The teams last met in San Francisco in November 2009, with the 49ers intercepting Cutler five times in a 10-6 victory. The 49ers have also won all three postseason meetings.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-20-12 12:47 AM |
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CNOTES
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NFL
Week 11
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Tale of the tape: Bears at 49ers
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Take a quick glance at the tale of the tape for Monday night’s showdown between the Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers
Offense
Bears QB Jay Cutler (concussion) did not practice this week and will give way to backup Jason Campbell. So, RBs Matt Forte and Michael Bush may get a heavier workload against a San Francisco defense that has suddenly been more vulnerable against the run. No. 1 WR Brandon Marshall has 51 catches and six touchdowns in the last six games
Niners’ QB Alex Smith (concussion) is questionable and has practiced in a limited fashion throughout the week. If he can’t suit up, backup Colin Kaepernick will be under center. Kaepernick guided San Francisco to 17 fourth-quarter points last week against the Rams in relief of Smith, completing 11 of 17 passes for 117 yards while rushing for 66 yards and a touchdown on eight carries. San Francisco boasts the top-rated rushing offense in the league at 170.2 yards per game for an average of 5.6 yards per carry.
Edge: 49ers
Defense
San Francisco and Chicago rank 1-2 in the league in fewest points allowed with 14.1 and 14.8, respectively. Chicago will lean on a defense that has a league-high 19 interceptions, including seven for TDs. The Bears’ stop unit is also the fourth-best at stopping the run. The Niners are fifth defending the pass and through nine games, San Francisco has given up just 292.1 yards per game.
Edge: Bears
Special teams
Bears punter Adam Podlesh has been in a slump, prompting special teams coordinator Dave Toub to bring in three punters for tryouts this week. Podlesh ranks 30th in the league in punting average (41.7). Devin Hester hasn’t been leaving would-be tacklers in the dust, slowed by injury this season, but he's still the greatest returner in NFL history.
David Akers missed a field goal that would have won the game for the Niners in overtime last week. The Rams also succeeded in converting two fake punts against San Francisco. The second fake came on the Rams final drive of regulation, which resulted in a touchdown and a St. Louis lead. The 49ers are allowing foes to average 28.8 yards per kickoff return (second worst in the NFL) and 9.6 yards per punt return including a TD in Week 1.
Edge: Bears
Word on the street
"I don't think so. They're kind of similar quarterbacks, strong armed guys, athletic. He's been experienced. He's played in the league a long time as a starter, both in Washington and Oakland. So, I really don't think their offense will change that much." - San Francisco defensive coordinator Vic Fangio on if the Chicago offense changes much with Jason Campbell in instead of Jay Cutler.
"We didn’t handle last year well...Of course, it’s documented we didn’t. That’s why we went out and we felt like we’ve upgraded the position. I know the guys have a lot of confidence in Jason. He’s played a lot of football, started a lot of games, so yeah, we’re hopeful. That’s why we can’t wait to get to this game. Injuries do happen, and we’ll see exactly where we are, but we think we’re going to be OK." - Bears coach Lovie Smith on the team's struggles last season when Cutler fell to injury and his starter Monday, Jason Campbell.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-20-12 12:49 AM |
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CNOTES
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MNF - Bears at 49ers
November 18, 2012
The Week 11 card closes out with two NFC clubs looking to set themselves up for a first round bye in the playoffs. The 49ers took a hit in last Sunday's unexpected tie against the struggling Rams, while the Bears were tripped up by the Texans at home. Chicago has bigger issues than last week's defeat, as it attempts to win on the road without its starting quarterback.
Jay Cutler was knocked out in the second quarter of last Sunday's 13-6 defeat to Houston, as he is listed as 'out' on Monday night. Cutler threw for just 40 yards and two interceptions against the tough Texans' defense, while Chicago suffered just its second loss on the season. Jason Campbell replaced Cutler in the second half, but didn't fare much better for throwing for 94 yards, as the former Redskin will start on Monday. The weather didn't help matters as rain lingered all night long at Soldier Field, easily cashing the 'under' of 37.
The 49ers blew a golden opportunity last Sunday, pulling off the first tie in the NFL since 2008 in a 24-24 deadlock against St. Louis. Alex Smith suffered a concussion in the first half, while getting replaced by second-year quarterback Colin Kaepernick. The former Nevada standout led the Niners to a pair of touchdowns in the fourth quarter, but San Francisco couldn't pull out the win in overtime. The Niners failed to cover as 13 ½-point favorites, while falling to 1-3 ATS the last four games.
Smith has been ruled 'out' tonight, as Kaepernick will make his first NFL start. San Francisco has plenty to play for, as the Niners are fighting with Atlanta, Chicago, New York, and Green Bay for a potential first round bye in the postseason. The Niners own a tiebreaker over the Packers, but lose the tiebreaker to the Giants due to head-to-head matchups. Jim Harbaurgh's club hits the road for four of the next five games after Monday, while the next three games are against teams below .500.
Since losing at Green Bay in Week 2, Lovie Smith's team has won three consecutive games away from Soldier Field. In those three victories, the Bears put up at least 34 points, while scoring 51 points at Tennessee two weeks ago. The 'over' has cashed in each of Chicago's road wins, while going 4-2 to the 'over' in the last six games overall.
The home team has won each of the previous 10 meetings dating back to 1989, as the Niners edged the Bears in the last matchup in 2009 at Candlestick Park, 10-6. San Francisco cashed as 3 ½-point favorites in a December primetime contest, as Cutler tossed five interceptions in the defeat. Chicago topped San Francisco in three consecutive meetings from 2004 through 2006, but all three victories came in the Windy City.
The Niners have cashed six straight Monday night contests since 2008, while compiling a 2-0 SU/ATS in Harbaugh's tenure. Last December, San Francisco routed Pittsburgh at Candlestick, 20-3 as three-point favorites, as the Niners have won four of the last five home Monday nighters since 2003. In Week 8, the Niners whipped the Cardinals in Arizona, 24-3 to cash easily as 7 ½-point 'chalk.'
Under Smith, the Bears have won nine of 11 games on Monday, while covered seven times. This season, Chicago has picked up Monday night triumphs at Dallas and at home over Detroit, but the Bears failed to cash against the Lions as even-point favorites. On the highway, Chicago is 5-1 SU/ATS in six Monday night games since 2005.
The 'under' is cashing at a ridiculous rate on Monday, hitting in each of the last four weeks. Overall, the 'under' is 8-3 in Monday matchups, as one of the 'overs' came in Week 4 between the Bears and Cowboys as Chicago scored two defensive touchdowns to push the game 'over' the total.
The 49ers are listed as 6 ½-point favorites, while the total is set at 37 across the board. Weather shouldn't be much of a factor with temperatures in the high 50's and no rain expected. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST and will be televised nationally on ESPN.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-20-12 12:51 AM |
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CNOTES
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Turkey Tips
November 21, 2012
**Texans at Lions**
--Before sitting down to Thanksgiving lunch, gamblers will need to place their bets for this 12:30 p.m. Eastern kickoff at Ford Field in the Motor City. As of late Wednesday afternoon, most books had Houston (9-1 straight up, 7-3 against the spread) favored by three with a minus-120 price. The total was 50 ½ points. Bettors can take the Lions on the money line for a plus-155 payout (risk $100 to win $155).
--After losing three of its first four games, Detroit (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS) won three of its next four and appeared poised to stay in postseason contention. However, the Lions have dropped back-to-back game and are now in desperation mode. They lost a 24-20 nail-biter vs. Green Bay last Sunday as 3 ½-point home underdogs. The 44 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 53 ½-point total.
--In the loss to the Packers, Detroit took a 20-14 advantage with 4:25 remaining on a 27-yard field goal by Jason Hanson. However, Aaron Rodgers drove Green Bay down the field on a six-play touchdown drive to take the lead back. After committing a turnover, the Lions failed to cover when the Packers got a 39-yard field goal from Mason Crosby with 19 ticks left. Matthew Stafford threw two interceptions, including a 72-yard pick-six, and also coughed up a fumble. The Lions have given up seven touchdowns on returns this season, including punts, fumbles and interceptions.
--Houston was fortunate to win outright as a 15-point home favorite vs. Jacksonville last week. The Texans twice trailed by double-digit margins in the second half, but they nonetheless railed to capture a 43-37 overtime win over the Jaguars. With 2:01 left in OT, Matt Schaub found Andre Johnson for a 48-yard scoring strike to provide the winning points. The Jags took the cash and the 80 combined points easily went ‘over’ the 40 ½-point tally.
--Schaub completed 43-of-55 passes for 527 yards with five TD passes and two interceptions against Jacksonville. Johnson hauled in 14 receptions for 273 yards. For the season, Schaub has 18 TD passes compared to eight interceptions. Johnson has 60 catches for 870 yards and three TDs.
--Houston RB Arian Foster has rushed for 949 yards and 10 TDs, but he’s been limited to a 3.8 yards-per-carry average. He rushed for 77 yards on 28 carries against the Jags.
--Houston is third in the NFL in scoring, averaging 29.3 points per game. Also, the Texans are fourth in the NFL in scoring defense, giving up only 18.0 PPG.
--Houston has won all four of its road assignments, compiling a 3-1 spread record. The Texans own an 8-7 spread record as road favorites during Gary Kubiak’s seven-year tenure.
--To get an idea of how mistake-prone Detroit has been this season, consider these stats: The Lions are second in the NFL in total offense, averaging 401.7 yards per contest. However, they are just 15th in scoring with a 23.6 PPG average. In a similar vein, Jim Schwartz’s squad is 10th in total defense but 23rd in scoring defense (24.6 PPG).
--During Schwartz’s four-year tenure, Detroit has gone 7-6 ATS as a home underdog. The Lions are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS at home this year.
--Totals have been an overall wash for Houston (5-5), but the ‘under’ is 3-1 in its four road games. Meanwhile, the Lions have watched the ‘over’ go 6-3-1 overall, 2-2 in their home games.
--CBS will provide television coverage.
**Redskins at Cowboys**
--Most spots are listing Dallas (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) as a three-point ‘chalk’ with a minus-120 price. The total is 48 and the Redskins are plus-155 to win outright (risk $100 to win $155).
--Dallas lost for the fourth time in five games at Atlanta on Nov. 4, but the Cowboys have responded with two straight victories to get back into the hunt. They are only one game back of the 6-4 Giants for the lead in the NFC East.
--Jason Garrett’s club won a 23-20 decision over Cleveland in overtime last week. Dan Bailey’s 32-yard field goal with two seconds left in regulation forced the extra session, and then Bailey buried a 38-yarder for the win with only 2:01 left in OT. The Cowboys failed to cover the number as seven-point home favorites, while the 43 combined points slipped ‘under’ the 43 ½-point total.
--Dallas veteran QB Tony Romo has completed 67.3 percent of his throws for 2,916 passing yards, but he has a mediocre 13/13 TD-INT ratio. Jason Witten is his favorite target, bringing in 73 catches for 636 yards and one TD.
--Dallas has won outright in two of its four home games, but it is an abysmal 0-4 ATS.
--Washington (4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS) ended a three-game losing slide by pounding Philadelphia by a 31-6 count as a 3 ½-point home favorite. Robert Griffin III produced a spectacular performance, connecting on 14-of-15 passes for 200 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. RG3 also rushed for 84 yards on 12 carries.
--RG3 has been ‘as advertised,’ completing 67.1 percent of his passes for 2,193 yards with a 12/3 TD-INT ratio. The Baylor product has also rushed for 624 yards and six TDs.
--Washington has lost three of its five road games but has managed a 3-2 spread record. The Redskins are 3-1 ATS as road underdogs this year, 11-7 ATS in such spots during Mike Shanahan’s three-year tenure.
--Dallas has won three straight and six of the last seven head-to-head meetings with Washington. However, the Redskins have covered the number in the last four encounters. In addition, the ‘Skins are 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Dallas.
--The ‘under’ is 6-4 overall for Dallas, 2-2 in its home games.
--Totals have been an overall wash (5-5) for the ‘Skins, but they have seen the ‘over’ cash at a 3-2 clip in their five road contests.
--The ‘under’ is on a 5-2 run in the last seven games of this storied rivalry.
--Kickoff is scheduled for 4:15 p.m. Eastern on FOX.
**Patriots at Jets**
--Most books are listing New England (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) as a seven-point favorite with a total of 48. Bettors can take the Jets to win outright for a plus-260 payout (risk $100 to win $260).
--Bill Belichick’s squad has won four in a row and six of its last seven, including last week’s 59-24 shellacking of Indianapolis as a 10-point home ‘chalk.’ Tom Brady threw for 331 yards and three TDs without an interception. Rob Gronkowski made seven receptions for 137 yards and two TDs, but he broke his forearm in the fourth quarter and will miss the next several games.
--On the bright side for the Pats, they’ll get their other stud tight end, Aaron Hernandez, back this week after he missed the last three games with an ankle injury.
--Brady is enjoying another sensational season, throwing for 2,976 yards with a 21/3 TD-INT ratio.
--New York (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS) stopped the bleeding of a three-game losing streak with last week’s 37-23 win at St. Louis as a 3 ½-point underdog. Bilal Powell rushed for a pair of touchdowns and Marc Sanchez had one TD pass without committing a turnover.
--For the season, Sanchez is completing only 53.5 percent of his passes with an 11/9 TD-INT ratio.
--Since its first two games went ‘under,’ New England has seen the ‘over’ cash in eight consecutive games. The ‘over’ is 4-1 in the Pats’ five road assignments. They are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS on the road.
--Totals have been an overall wash (5-5) for the Jets, but the ‘under’ is 3-2 in their home games. They are 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS at home.
--During Rex Ryan’s tenure, the Jets own a 3-1 spread record as home underdogs.
--The ‘over’ has hit in six straight head-to-head meetings between the Jets and Patriots.
--NBC will have the telecast at 8:20 p.m. Eastern.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-22-12 02:23 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12022
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Total Talk - Thanksgiving
November 21, 2012
Due to the Thanksgiving Day slate this Thursday, bettors will be able to lock and load early in Week 12. We’ll recap last week’s action and go over the rest of the slate in our weekly Total Talk installment on Saturday. For now, let’s break down the three games on tap.
Houston at Detroit: The first game on the board isn’t an easy one and you could make sound arguments for either the ‘over’ or the ‘under.’ The opening line was 48 ½ and it’s been steamed up to 50 ½ at most outfits. Most gamblers have short-term memory and Houston’s 43-37 overtime win last Sunday over Jacksonville is probably in their head. Quarterback Matt Schaub and wide receiver Andre Johnson both had career days for the Texans, yet they only put up 43 and nine of those points came in the extra session. What was very surprising was the play of Houston’s defense, which was diced up by Jaguars QB Chad Henne. Keep in mind that Henne did most of his damage on three plays, two of them going for long touchdowns (67, 81 yards).
Fortunately for the Texans, they won’t be playing a consistent attack this week. Detroit looks like it has firepower on paper with QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson, but this offense lacks a running game and any rhythm. At home, the Lions are averaging 24 points per game. If there is hope for Detroit’s offense to get going, you can look at its outputs against AFC South clubs. The Lions put up 41 against the Titans and 31 against the Jaguars this season, which was the two highest point totals for them this season. Despite the bad performance last week, the Texans’ defense is still ranked fourth in the league (299 YPG, 18 PPG) and they’ve stepped up on the road, allowing a total of 55 points in four games. After scoring 27 and 31 in its first two road games, Houston has only mustered up 23 and 13 the past two outings as visitors.
On Thanksgiving, Detroit has watched the ‘under’ produce a 7-3 mark the past 10 seasons. The Lions have also lost nine of those games during that span.
Washington at Dallas: After watching its first four games of the season go ‘over’ the number, the Redskins have seen the ‘under’ rebound with a 5-1 mark in the last six games. Washington saw some 50-point totals posted early, which was a little surprising when you have a rookie quarterback (Robert Griffin III) under center. RG3 has proven to be effective, but the main reason for the high numbers is the Redskins defense, which is playing with crutches. Washington was hurt by the injury bug again last week as the unit lost safety Brandon Meriweather (knee) for the season. Also, the leader of the defense, linebacker London Fletcher (ankle), is ‘questionable’ too.
Dallas was hoping to get running back DeMarco Murray (foot) back in the lineup but his status is ‘doubtful’ for Thursday. That’s probably a good thing if you’re leaning ‘over’ because the Cowboys will most likely let Tony Romo attack an already decimated secondary if he can stay on his feet. Similar to Detroit, the ‘Boys look explosive on paper but the results aren’t there because the offensive line isn’t great. The best outing was 38 points against Philadelphia a couple weeks ago, and 21 came from the defense and special teams.
Last year, the total spilt in the two regular season meetings between the pair as they combined for 34 and 51 points. The total opened at 47 for this game and was bet up to 48. Dallas watched last year’s holiday matchup go ‘under’ in its win over Miami (20-19). The one thing you can say about the ‘Boys on Thanksgiving is that they do score and put on a show. It’s been 11 years since Dallas has been held under 20 points on Turkey Day.
New England at N.Y. Jets: This number opened at 50 ½ and is now being offered anywhere between 48 and 49 points, depending where you shop. Considering the Patriots can get to this number themselves, it’s certainly hard to argue an ‘under’ play here. New England’s offense leads the league in points scored (35.8) and yards (431.9) and the defense is starting to turn be opportunistic as well. Last week, the Pats ripped the Colts 59-24 and 21 of the points came from a pair of pick-six touchdowns and a punt return. After seeing the first two games of the season go 'under' the Pats have watched the 'over' cash in eight straight weeks.
Offensively, the Pats high-powered attack will be missing a key part this week against the Jets. Tight end Rob Gronkowski injured his forearm in last week’s win over the Colts. He’s out this week and possibly a few more games as well. Fortunately for the Pats, TE Aaron Hernandez is expected to return from an ankle injury. The offensive line also has some key injuries, in particular Logan Mankins and Dan Connolly. You couldn’t tell they missed last week’s game against Indy, who has a much better pass rush than the Jets.
New York gave New England a scare in mid-October, but fell short in a 29-26 defeat. QB Mark Sanchez played well (328 yards, 68%) in the loss despite having limited receivers and no running game. Including the first meeting this season, the ‘over’ has now cashed in six straight in this series.
The last few weeks of Total Talk, we’ve been hitting on rematch games between divisional opponents. So far this season, the ‘over’ has gone 8-2 (80%) when teams meet in the second divisional battle. Before you run to the counter and bang the ‘over’ on this game, make a note that the ‘under’ has gone 24-10 (71%) in games played in primetime slots this season. Lastly, since the NFL added a third game on Thanksgiving Day during the 2006 season, the ‘under’ has gone 4-2 in the six installments, including three in a row.
Fearless Predictions
If you’re reading this piece, then you’re probably betting and for that, we say be thankful that you can. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck and Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours!
Best Over: Washington-Dallas 48
Best Under: Houston-Detroit 50 1/2
Best Team Total: Over Dallas 25 1/2
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over Washington-Dallas 39
Under Houston-Detroit 59 ½
Under New England-N.Y. Jets 57
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-22-12 02:28 PM |
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CNOTES
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Pats-Jets Matchup Highlights Thanksgiving Day NFL Games
Houston Texans at Detroit Lions
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 11/22/2012 at 12:30 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Houston -3, O/U 48½
Television: CBS
Houston Texans: The Texans (9-1 straight-up, 7-3 against the spread) dodged a bullet last week at home and might be hard-pressed to get a tougher challenge on the road this Thanksgiving Day. Houston needed overtime to knock off Jacksonville 43-37 behind a game-winning 48-yard touchdown catch from wide receiver Andre Johnson (14 catches for a career-high 273 yards) but still failed to deliver as a 15-point favorite. Quarterback Matt Schaub also threw for a career-high 527 yards, which tied for the second-highest total in NFL history, and five touchdowns. Schaub and Johnson will now get to feast on Detroit’s secondary that was burned for a 22-yard TD pass from Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers in the final two minutes to win that game. Texans RB Arian Foster carried the ball 28 times for 77 yards in the win and should be more involved against the Lions as well.
Detroit Lions: Detroit (4-6 SU and ATS) blew a golden opportunity to beat a division opponent in losing 24-20 at home to the Packers last week and now must prepare for the AFC’s best team on short rest. The Lions saw QB Matthew Stafford complete less than half of his passes (17-of-39) for 266 yards with two interceptions but got WR Calvin Johnson involved (five catches for 143 yards) and hit him with the go-ahead touchdown with 3:01 left in the third quarter. However, they fell victim to Rodgers down the stretch and dropped to 0-4 in the NFC North, two games behind Minnesota for last place. Detroit is 3-3 SU in its last six games following a 1-3 start and has failed to cover two straight with the “over” going 3-1 in the team’s past four.
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Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 11/22/2012 at 4:15 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Dallas -4, O/U 47
Television: FOX
Washington Redskins: The Redskins (4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS) ended a three-game skid off their bye week and will now try to win two in a row against division opponents when they visit another NFC East rival in Arlington. Washington drilled Philadelphia 31-6 last week behind four touchdown passes from rookie QB Robert Griffin III, who completed 14-of-15 overall for 200 yards. None of the team’s receivers caught more than three passes, including Pierre Garcon, who returned from a foot injury to play for the first time in five games and totaled three catches for just five yards. The “under” cashed for the fourth straight time overall for the Redskins, although the “over” is 3-2 in their five road games so far this season.
Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) needed OT to edge Cleveland 23-20 last week after playing four of their previous five games on the road. They began a stretch of five home games in six weeks against the Browns and will close out the regular season at Washington on December 30. Dallas once again relied on the arm of QB Tony Romo to carry the team, as he completed 35-of-50 passes for 313 yards, including a 28-yard touchdown pass to WR Dez Bryant (12 catches for 145 yards) with 6:46 left in regular for a 17-13 lead. The Cowboys struggled to run the ball again without RB DeMarco Murray, with Felix Jones totaling 43 yards on 14 carries. Murray (foot) is doubtful to return for the annual Thanksgiving Day affair (click to check updated NFL injury report), so Romo will likely look to burn one of the league’s worst pass defenses, surrendering 289.2 yards per game.
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New England Patriots at New York Jets
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 11/22/2012 at 8:20 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: New England -7, O/U 50½
Television: NBC
New England Patriots: The Patriots (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) are coming off a 59-24 thrashing of Indianapolis last week, but the win did not come without a cost. All-Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski suffered a broken forearm while playing special teams on an extra-point attempt, and he is expected to miss a few games. Gronkowski hauled in seven catches for 137 yards, including two touchdowns, and he will be missed in the red zone as QB Tom Brady’s favorite target. The good news is that TE Aaron Hernandez is expected to return from an ankle injury and should be able to help Brady, who threw for 331 yards and three TDs against the Colts. Brady was actually outplayed by New York’s Mark Sanchez in the first meeting with the Jets (a 29-26 OT victory back on Oct. 21), and he will need to play better if the Pats are going to win their fifth straight game. The “over” has cashed in New England’s last eight games.
New York Jets: The Jets (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS) ended their three-game losing streak with an impressive 27-13 road win at St. Louis last week. They had dropped five of six, including the loss to New England, but found a way to shut down the Rams and score just enough to help top the 38-point total. New York covered easily as 3½-point road underdogs and also beat the 11-point line in the first meeting with the Patriots. The Jets got good balance offensively against St. Louis with QB Mark Sanchez throwing for 178 yards and running backs Shonn Greene and Bilal Powell combining for 106 yards on 29 carries. One of the keys was not turning the ball over, something they did twice in the last game vs. New England. The Pats scored two defensive touchdowns off four Indy turnovers last week, including a 59-yard interception return from new cornerback Aqib Talib.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-22-12 02:33 PM |
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CNOTES
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NFL Week 12 Preview: Texans at Lions
HOUSTON TEXANS (9-1)
at DETROIT LIONS (4-6)
Kickoff: Thursday, 12:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Houston -3, Total: 50.5
The Texans try to remain perfect on the road when they visit slumping Detroit on Thanksgiving Day.
The Lions haven’t had a happy Thanksgiving in a while, as they’ve lost eight Thanksgiving Classics in a row, SU and ATS, and they haven’t come within 11 points in any of those games. This season, Detroit has been victimized by slow starts and its own conservative play-calling. They Lions are just 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS at home. Houston’s previously dominant defense was a dud last week, allowing 458 yards and 37 points to the lowly Jaguars at home. But they did prove they could win a shootout, racking up 640 yards of offense in the 43-37 win. QB Matt Schaub threw for 527 yards (T-2nd in NFL history) and 5 TD, and could feast on Detroit’s banged up secondary.
Can the Lions end their Thanksgiving Day futility on Thursday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.
The Texans have been outstanding on the road this season, going 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) with the defense allowing a mere 13.7 PPG and 257 total YPG to the host teams. But Houston's defense has a lot of work to do after surrendering a season-high 458 yards to Jacksonville last week, including 354 passing yards to second-string QB Chad Henne. Detroit's passing offense leads the NFL (302 YPG), so the Texans certainly have their work cut out for them. On the offensive side of the ball, Schaub will continue to rely on his top receiver, Andre Johnson, who is coming off a 14-catch, 273-yard performance in the wild 43-37 win over Jacksonville. The 273 yards is the most in the NFL since 2000. But the Texans remain a run-heavy offense, ranking eighth in the NFL with 137 rushing YPG. Arian Foster leads the league with 10 rushing touchdowns and has 37 more carries than anybody else in the NFL (24.9 per game). Houston's offense has been careless over the past two weeks, turning the football over five times.
Lions QB Matthew Stafford ranks fourth in the NFL in passing yards (2,988), but is just 21st in passer rating with a paltry 12 TD and 10 INT in his 10 games. He's also been sacked 22 times and the Texans are tied for eighth in the NFL with 27 sacks, led by DL J.J. Watt who has 11.5 sacks for the season. Stafford and top WR Calvin Johnson are starting to get on the same page, as Johnson has racked up three straight 100-yard receiving games and now leads the NFL with 1,117 receiving yards. He has been battling knee and thumb injuries, but he is expected to start on Thursday. Detroit's rushing offense has been nothing to write home about, ranking 23rd in the NFL with 99.9 yards per game. With Houston ranking second in the NFL in run defense (86 YPG), the game plan for Detroit will be a heavy passing attack. With the Lions committing four turnovers last week, they are now tied for third in the NFC in most giveaways (18).
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-22-12 02:35 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12022
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NFL Week 12 Preview: Redskins at Cowboys
WASHINGTON REDSKINS (4-6)
at DALLAS COWBOYS (5-5)
Kickoff: Thursday, 4:25 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -3, Total: 48
A classic NFL rivalry resumes on Thanksgiving Day when the Redskins visit the Cowboys.
Dallas has yet to cover at home this year (2-2 SU, 0-4 ATS), but it has covered in five of its past six games as a Thanksgiving Day favorite. They Cowboys will be dealing with a rising rookie superstar in Redskins QB Robert Griffin III, who bounced back from a mini-slump to throw four TDs against the Eagles last week. He’s posted a 100.3 passer rating in five road games this year. Dallas needed to come back and force overtime against the Browns at home last week, but has managed back-to-back SU wins for the first time since Weeks 9-12 last season.
Which NFC East rival will prevail on Thursday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.
Griffin III was outstanding in last week's 31-6 trouncing of Philadelphia, completing 14-of-15 passes for 4 TD. He also added 84 yards on 12 carries, improving his league-leading total among quarterbacks to 613 rushing yards. He hopes to be the difference maker that his team has lacked in the past three meetings, which the Cowboys have won by a combined eight points. Partly because the Cowboys are the sixth-best passing defense in the NFL (211 YPG), Washington will likely try to control the game by rushing the football. The Redskins rank second in the NFL with 165 rushing YPG led by another exciting rookie, Alfred Morris, who has 869 rushing yards on 4.7 YPC with five touchdowns. Griffin has six rushing TD. The Redskins have rushed for at least 150 yards in four of their past five road games. This ground game has also been a key reason why Washington has zero turnovers in its past three games combined.
Cowboys QB Tony Romo was able to bring his team back from a double-digit, fourth-quarter deficit against the Browns last week, winning 23-20 in overtime. Although he's had a subpar season (7.4 YPA, 13 TD, 13 INT), Romo expects to throw ball all over the weak Washington secondary. The Redskins are allowing 289 passing YPG, which ranks fourth-to-last in the NFL. Romo has a pair of talented receivers in Miles Austin (727 rec. yds) and Dez Bryant (735 rec. yds), who is coming off a 12-catch, 145-yard performance against Cleveland. TE Jason Witten leads the team in both receptions (73) and targets (99). The running game is a big problem though, as both of Dallas' top running backs, DeMarco Murray (foot) and Felix Jones (knee), are expected to miss Thursday's contest. That leaves rookie Lance Dunbar as the main running back. Dunbar has just 20 carries this season, gaining just 67 yards (3.4 YPC) with zero touchdowns. Washington's rushing defense ranks seventh in the league at 95 YPG allowed, so the game plan for the Cowboys figures to be one heavily favoring the pass.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-22-12 02:37 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12022
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NFL Week 13 Preview: Patriots at Jets
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (7-3)
at NEW YORK JETS (4-6)
Kickoff: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: New England -6.5, Total: 48
One of the most bitter NFL rivalries continues on Thursday night when the red-hot Patriots make the short trip to New Jersey to battle the Jets.
In Week 7, the Jets played arguably their best game of the season in New England, but blew a late lead and eventually lost 29-26 in overtime. They outgained the Patriots 403-281 and Mark Sanchez threw for 328 yards. Tom Brady led field goal drives at the end of regulation and in OT. Brady has had a couple of duds in New Jersey since Rex Ryan took over in New York. He has a 79.7 passer rating over three games against Ryan’s Jets, but he picked them apart last November, throwing for 329 yards and 3 TD in a 37-16 Patriots blowout. He’ll be without TE Rob Gronkowski (broken arm), but should get TE Aaron Hernandez (ankle) back on the field.
Can the Jets slow down the Patriots on Thursday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.
New England is riding a four-game win streak (2-2 ATS) thanks to an offense averaging 42.5 PPG during this stretch. Brady has a 111.3 passer rating during this string, throwing 11 TD and 0 INT. Brady is 17-5 as a starter in his career against the Jets, throwing for 5,314 yards (242 YPG), 32 TD and just 11 INT. In the Week 7 overtime victory, he connected on 26-of-42 throws for 259 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT. Brady and his talented receiving corps, led by Wes Welker (73 rec, 890 yds), is the main reason this offense is so efficient, but the rushing attack has also been strong in 2012 (143 YPG), piling up at least 115 rushing yards in four straight games. Defensively, the Patriots have also been great in stopping the run, with just 99 rushing YPG allowed. A big reason New England hasn't lost in four games is that the club has turned the ball over just once during the win streak, posting three straight turnover-free games.
The Jets have dropped five of their past seven games, including three of four on their home turf. Although they beat St. Louis handily last week, 27-13, they generated only 289 total yards including 3.0 yards per carry. Starting with the New England game, New York is averaging a subpar 105 rushing YPG on 3.6 YPC over the past four games. Sanchez played well the last time he faced New England, but is just 2-5 in seven regular-season starts versus the Pats, throwing for only 212 YPG on 7.0 YPA with 9 TD and 10 INT. For the season, Sanchez has thrown for a mere 6.5 YPA, 11 TD and 9 INT, as he ranks 29th in passer rating. But after committing 13 turnovers in his first nine games, Sanchez (and the entire Jets team) had a turnover-free game last week. Ball protection is of the upmost importance, as New England leads the AFC with 27 takeaways, returning two interceptions for touchdowns last week.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-22-12 02:39 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12022
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NFL odds: Week 12 opening line report
Your sweat pants are washed and pressed. Sixty percent of your fridge is home to a 20-pound half-frozen turkey. And you just tossed a few extra bucks into your sportsbook bankroll. It could only mean one thing: Thanksgiving is almost here.
The NFL is serving up triple helpings of action on Turkey Day, starting with Houston at Detroit at 12:30 p.m. ET, followed by Washington at Dallas at 4:15 p.m. ET, and finally New England at New York at 8:20 p.m. ET.
“Traditionally, we’re high on favorites with the Thanksgiving games. Everyone is home and everyone is betting,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service, The Sports Club, told Covers. “This year, the games are a little more competitive but we’re still high on the favorites.”
Houston Texans at Detroit Lions (+3, 49)
Korner was baffled by what he saw at some of the online shops, when early spreads had Houston favored by only three points. The Texans were nearly knocked off by the lowly Jaguars Sunday but Houston – at 9-1 SU – is still one of the best teams in the NFL.
“Detroit is just 4-6 and not the team everyone expected this season,” says Korner, who sent out a suggested spread of Houston -6. “I don’t understand why this came out at three. Come Thursday, who do you think everyone is going to be playing?”
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 47)
The Cowboys, coming off a nail-biting overtime win against Cleveland, turn around to face a classic rival on Thanksgiving Day. The Sports Club sent out Dallas -4.5 while early lines offshore opened with America’s Team as a 3.5-point home fave.
“Washington is a live dog here,” says Korner. “That win was great for Dallas and the Cowboys do have their following, but I don’t think (the spread) will go either way. It should settle in around three.”
New England Patriots at New York Jets (+5.5, 49)
The Sports Club sent out a suggested spread of New England -7 for this AFC East battle, but the injury to star TE Rob Gronkowski (out 4-6 weeks with broken forearm) has dropped the spread as low as -5.
Korner says big money could be controlling this line, waiting to see how low it can go before buying back New England.
“Whoever is controlling this move definitely doesn’t want New England -7.5 come Thursday,” he says. “I think it went down because of Gronk (who Korner says is worth a point to the spread), and he’s a difference maker. But it’s a good excuse to take this line down. There won’t be any Jets money coming in Thursday.”
Green Bay Packers at New York Giants (-1, 49.5)
Online books opened New York as a slim home favorite in this rematch of the NFC Divisional showdown from last year. However, Korner disagrees with making the Giants the favorites and expects this line to easily move to Green Bay before Sunday.
“I was the only one of our guys who had Green Bay favored,” he says. “The Giants aren’t playing well, Eli hasn’t been sharp, and this is a revenge spot for the Packers. One bet can move this spread over to Green Bay.”
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-22-12 02:40 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12022
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NFL Thanksgiving Day betting cheat sheet
Thanksgiving is about taking a break to reflect with family and friends, but it’s also a time to get some tasty bets down on NFL action.
If you’ve been too busy jumping through the Thanksgiving hoops to handicap Thursday’s slate - don’t worry. Our NFL Thanksgiving Day cheat sheet comes to the rescue like gravy on dry turkey.
Houston Texans at Detroit Lions (+3, 50.5)
The Texans are coming off a near-upset to Jacksonville Sunday and visit the Lions for their first Thanksgiving Day game in franchise history. Detroit has dropped back-to-back games and hasn’t fared well on Thanksgiving Day in recent years, going 0-8 SU and ATS since 2004.
Detroit will be without WR Titus Young, who is being benched for behavior issues, leaving the Lions very thin at receiver. Veteran wideout Nate Burleson is already out for the season, allowing opponents to double-up on star WR Calvin Johnson.
Tight end Brandon Pettigrew could see more passes his way and RB Mikel Leshoure may have to shoulder a heavier load on the ground, in order to take pressure off QB Matt Stafford Thursday.
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 48)
This classic NFC East rivalry has been dominated by the underdog in recent seasons, with the pup going 22-6 ATS in the past 29 meeting between the Redskins and Cowboys. Dallas won both encounters with Washington last season but failed to cover in those – and the last four meetings with the Skins overall.
The Cowboys are another Thanksgiving Day mainstay and - unlike the Lions - they have thrived on the holiday, going 8-3 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2001. That goes against Dallas’ current ATS slide at home, where it has failed to cover in its last seven home games overall, including last week’s OT win against the Browns.
Washington rookie QB Robert Griffin III won’t be in an unfamiliar atmosphere at Cowboys Stadium Thursday. During his college career at Baylor, the former Heisman winner played twice in the $1 billion venue. The Redskins have lost all three trips to “Jerry’s World” and are 0-6 SU all-time versus Dallas on Thanksgiving Day.
New England Patriots at New York Jets (+7, 48)
No wonder this spread is back up to a touchdown after dipping as low as 5.5 earlier in the week. The road team is 20-8-1 ATS in the last 29 meetings between these clubs, including New York’s near upset of New England at Gillette Stadium in Week 7.
The Patriots won’t have tight end Rob Gronkowski for this Thanksgiving Day game but fellow TE Aaron Hernandez could return to action after missing time with an ankle injury. New England could hand the bulk of the playbook over the rushing tandem of Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen, who have quietly given the Pats the fifth-best ground attack in the NFL (142.9 yards per game).
New York’s defense has been gashed on the ground this season, allowing foes to rumble for 141.7 yards an outing – 30th in the league. Gang Green allowed the Rams to run for 124 yards on just 20 carries in last week’s win in St. Louis (6.2 yards per carry), and watched New England rush for 131 yards in Week 7. The Patriots’ no-huddle attack will drain the Jets’ battery if they line up quick and keep to the ground.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-22-12 02:42 PM |
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