 |
CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 11970
|
NFL
Monday, November 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tale of the tape: Chiefs at Steelers
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Take a quick glance at the tale of the tape for Monday night’s showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers.
Offense
Kansas City is mired in a five-game losing streak and has not held a lead in regulation this season. The Chiefs committed four turnovers in their most recent loss to San Diego to boost their league-worst total to 29. Matt Cassel will make his second straight start at QB since reclaiming his job when Brady Quinn suffered a concussion. Kansas City had the league's best running game at one point this season, but Jamaal Charles has rushed for only 83 yards in his last three games.
Steelers WR Antonio Brown has officially been ruled out for Monday night’s contest with an ankle injury he sustained in Week 9’s win over the Giants. Running back Rashard Mendenhall (Achilles) is questionable, so Isaac Redman, who rushed for a career-high 147 yards last week, would potentially start in his place. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for 16 touchdowns against four interceptions and is one of six QBs with a passer rating above 100.
Edge: Steelers
Defense
Kansas City, which is allowing 30.0 points per game, cut CB Stanford Routt this week. He was signed to a three-year, $18 million contract in the offseason. The Chiefs' stop unit is allowing 126 yards on the ground per game and will be in tough against the Steelers’ versatile running attack.
Pittsburgh's defense ranks first in the league in total yards (262.6) and against the pass (174.0). The Steelers limited the Giants to a season-low 182 yards of total offense despite the absence of Pro Bowl S Troy Polamalu, who will miss his fifth straight game with a calf injury. The Steelers will also be without T Marcus Gilbert (ankle) and LB Stevenson Sylvester (hamstring).
Edge: Steelers
Special teams
Kansas City averages 22.2 yards per kick return (22nd) and 10.7 yards per punt return (9th), but has yet to return a kick or punt for a TD this season.
Pittsburgh averages 28 yards per kick return (4th) and 10.2 yards per punt return (11th), but will be without primary return specialist Antonio Brown for this one. The Steelers also have one of the most reliable kickers in the league, Shaun Suisham, who has converted 17 of his 18 FG attempts this season.
Edge: Steelers
Word on the street
"I have to impart on them the importance of protecting the ball for this team and sometimes to get that done, you basically have to threaten them. If you fumble it, I'm going to take you out of the game. And they will get the message." --Romeo Crennel on his plan to bench anyone who fumbles or throws a pick Monday night.
"Whoever's being productive when healthy is going to get the totes. I really think it's that simple. I'm not going to make it any more complex than it has to be." --Steelers coach Mike Tomlin on his depth in the backfield.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
|
11-13-12 12:20 AM |
|
|
| |
|
CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 11970
|
NFL
Monday, November 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday Night Football: Chiefs at Steelers
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-12.5, 41)
If Kansas City Chiefs coach Romeo Crennel crunches the numbers long enough, he might decide not to let his team board the plane for Monday night's game at the resurgent Pittsburgh Steelers. The early-season struggles appear to be a thing of the past for Pittsburgh, which has won three straight games, including a 24-20 comeback win on the road over the reigning Super Bowl champion New York Giants a week ago.
If that's not enough, the Chiefs haven't won in Pittsburgh since 1986. Adding to the daunting task is that Kansas City is mired in a five-game losing streak and has not held a lead in regulation this season. One subplot is that Steelers offensive coordinator Todd Haley will be facing the team that fired him as head coach after 13 games last season, opening the door for Crennel to supplant him.
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE: Steelers -12.5, O/U 41
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s with a 90 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the SW at 8 mph.
ABOUT THE CHIEFS (1-7): Kansas City's season of misery continued with a 31-13 loss at San Diego on Nov. 1. The Chiefs committed four turnovers to boost their league-worst total to 29 and managed only 289 yards - a good chunk of it coming late in the fourth quarter. The lopsided defeat prompted Crennel to relinquish his duties as defensive coordinator so he can spend more time with the entire team to "get this thing right." Matt Cassel will make his second straight start since reclaiming his job when Brady Quinn suffered a concussion. Kansas City had the league's best running game at one point this season, but Jamaal Charles has rushed for only 83 yards in his last three games.
ABOUT THE STEELERS (5-3): The running game is what has turned things around for Pittsburgh. Isaac Redman gashed the Giants for 147 yards and a touchdown to follow up back-to-back 100-yard performances by Jonathan Dwyer, who sat out last week due to injury. Pittsburgh's defense has also come alive, ranking first in the league in total yards (262.6) and against the pass (174.0). The Steelers limited the Giants to a season-low 182 yards of total offense despite the absence of Pro Bowl safety Troy Polamalu, who will miss his fifth straight game with a calf injury. Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for 16 touchdowns against four interceptions and is one of six quarterbacks with a passer rating above 100.
TRENDS:
* Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Under is 6-0 in Steelers' last six home games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Pittsburgh forced four turnovers in winning at Kansas City 13-9 last season.
2. Crennel is 0-8 all-time against the Steelers.
3. Kansas City, which is allowing 30.0 points per game, cut CB Stanford Routt this week. He was signed to a three-year, $18 million contract in the offseason.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
|
|
11-13-12 12:22 AM |
|
|
| |
|
CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 11970
|
Bills Hoping To End 3-Game Slide Thursday Against Miami
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 11/15/2012 at 8:20 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Bills -1, O/U 45
Television: NFL Network
Miami Dolphins: A second consecutive loss, this time a 37-3 whipping at the hands of the Titans last Sunday, left the Fins (4-5 straight-up, 4-4-1 against the spread) on the outside looking in for the AFC playoffs. Four turnovers, three of them interceptions thrown by rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill, did Miami in as Tennessee built a 21-0 lead early in the second quarter and never looked back. The Dolphins were 7-point favorites and surrendered a season-high 177 yards on the ground, 126 of those from Titans tailback Chris Johnson. Miami has now failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games, though "under" bettors have found some profit with winning tickets in four of the last five Dolphin tilts. The Dolphins swept last year's two meetings, and they have won and covered three of the last four matchups with the Bills.
Buffalo Bills: The Gillette Stadium jinx remains alive for the Bills (3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS), who moved to 0-11 at the field since it opened with a 37-31 setback to the New England Patriots last week. Buffalo set a team record with 35 first downs and outgained the Pats 481-347 in the game, but three turnovers proved costly, none more than a pick thrown by QB Ryan Fitzpatrick in the final half-minute when the Bills appeared to be driving for a potential game-winning score. The Bills rolled up 162 yards on the ground, 80 of those by Fred Jackson, who has already been out for Thursday's game due to a concussion (click to check updated NFL injury report). Buffalo ranks sixth in the NFL with 143.1 yards per game on the ground and will turn to C.J. Spiller (632 yards rushing, 14th in NFL). Eight of the last 12 clashes in this series have failed to reach the total, but all three of Buffalo's home games this season have jumped the scoreboard figure.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
|
|
11-16-12 12:31 AM |
|
|
| |
|
CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 11970
|
Dolphins at Bills
November 15, 2012
This week’s Thursday night NFL game takes us to Orchard Park in upstate New York, where Buffalo will take on Miami in an AFC East encounter.
As of late Wednesday afternoon, most books had Buffalo (3-6 straight up, 4-5 against the spread) installed as a 1 ½-point favorite with a total of 45 ½. By early this afternoon, the Bills were favored by 2 1/2. Gamblers can take the Dolphins on the money line for a plus-120 return (risk $100 to win $120).
Chan Gailey’s team nearly pulled a shocking upset last Sunday in Foxboro, only to come up on the short end of a 37-31 decision. Although the Patriots got the outright victory, the Bills hooked up their betting supporters as 13 ½-point underdogs.
Buffalo had a chance to win in the waning moments, advancing to New England’s 15-yard line. The Pats didn’t seal the deal until Devin McCourty intercepted Ryan Fitzpatrick in the end zone with 23 seconds remaining.
Fitzpatrick completed 27-of-40 passes for 337 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Fred Jackson rushed 16 times for 80 yards and a pair of scores. He also had four receptions for 35 yards, but he sustained a concussion on the Bills’ final drive that will keep him ‘out’ this week.
For the season, Fitzpatrick has connected on 62.5 of his passes for 2,011 yards with a 17/10 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Stevie Johnson is Fitzpatrick’s favorite target, hauling in 41 receptions for 502 yards and four TDs.
Without Jackson, C.J. Spiller will get more opportunities and that’s not a bad thing. The Clemson product has rushed for 632 yards and four TDs, averaging 7.3 yards per carry. Spiller also has 28 catches for 297 yards and one TD.
Buffalo is ranked 16th in the NFL in scoring offense, averaging 23.4 points per game. The Bills’ defense is the NFL’s worst, giving up 31.7 PPG.
Miami (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) is coming off its worst effort of the season. Tennessee went into South Florida last weekend and dealt out woodshed treatment from start to finish, collecting an easy 37-3 win as a 6 ½-point underdog. The 40 combined points slithered ‘under’ the 44-point total.
Miami rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill had not been intercepted since September, but he was picked off three times by the Titans. The Dolphins produced only 255 yards of total offense, and Reggie Bush had just six ‘touches’ (four carries, two catches).
Bush has rushed for 555 yards and four TDs, averaging 4.4 YPC. He also has 21 receptions for 179 yards.
Tannehill has completed 58.9 percent of his throws for 1,789 yards with a 5/9 TD-INT ratio. His favorite wideout has been Brian Hartline, who has 49 catches for 741 yards and one TD.
Miami’s defense has given up plenty of yards this year. To be exact, the Dolphins rank 22nd in total defense, surrendering 372.2 yards per contest. However, they are stingy about giving up points, allowing only 20.7 PPG (eighth in the NFL)
Joe Philbin’s squad has gone on the road five times, compiling a 2-3 SU record and a 3-2 ATS mark. The ‘Fins are 3-1 ATS as road underdogs.
Buffalo has only played at home three times, going 1-2 both SU and ATS. As a home favorite during Gailey’s three-year tenure, the Bills are 3-6-1 versus the number.
Buffalo will most likely be without two defensive starters. DE Mark Anderson (knee) and CB Aaron Williams (leg) are both listed as ‘doubtful.’
The ‘over’ is 6-3 overall for Buffalo, 3-0 in its home games. On the flip side, the ‘Fins have watched the ‘under’ go 6-3 overall, 4-1 in their five road assignments. Regardless of the venue, the ‘under’ has cashed in five consecutive Miami games.
Miami has won six of the last eight head-to-head meetings against Buffalo both SU and ATS, including a sweep of the season series last year. The Dolphins won by a 35-8 count as three-point home favorites, and they collected a 30-23 win as one-point road ‘chalk.’
The NFL Network will have the telecast at 8:25 p.m. Eastern. Temperatures at kickoff are expected to be in the upper 30s with a wind chill of 33 degrees.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--With Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger ailing from shoulder and rib injuries suffered in Monday’s overtime win over Kansas City, Byron Leftwich will make his first start since 2009 on Sunday night at home vs. Baltimore. The Ravens are listed as three-point favorites with a total of 41. Roethlisberger could be out for an extended period of time.
--There are five home underdogs on the board in Week 11: Carolina (+1.5 vs. Tampa Bay), Oakland (+5.5 vs. New Orleans), Detroit (+3.5 vs. Green Bay), Pittsburgh (+3.5 vs. Baltimore) and Kansas City (+3.5 vs. Cincinnati).
--Click here to check out my NFL Power Rankings going into Week 11.
--My take on the ‘Terrible’ Tebow remark from an anonymous Jets player: Tim Tebow is a unique human being and football player. He owns special qualities that few people possess and that also pertains to his strengths and weaknesses as a QB. Without a doubt, if a team decides to go with Tebow as its every-down QB, it must cater to his talents. But for all of those knuckleheads (too many to name!) who speak in a matter-of-fact tone when stating that Tebow can’t be successful as an NFL signal caller, I submit to you the real facts, ones that aren’t up for debate.
In the only significant sample size we have for judging Tebow as a pro QB, he thrived. He was given the keys to a Denver team with a 1-4 record that was left for dead. Then the organization intentionally set him up to fail by trading its best WR, Brandon Lloyd, within 48 hours of naming Tebow as the starter. (Lloyd had led the NFL in receiving yards in 2010.) The team that was done, one on its way to a 3-13 record, suddenly became the story in the NFL under Tebow. The Broncos won seven of its last 11 regular-season games to make the playoffs. Then in the postseason, Tebow helped the Broncos beat the Steelers in an overtime thriller. Next, they lost at New England in the playoffs. Last time I checked, a few quarterbacks and teams have been known to leave Gillette Stadium with ‘L’s in January.
And that’s all. There’s nothing else to judge Tebow by other than his 2011 campaign with the Broncos. And if memory serves, Tebow beat the Jets with a game-winning touchdown run at crunch time. On that play, Antonio Cromartie, the Jets’ cornerback who can’t keep track of his kids’ names, refused to challenge Tebow as he scampered toward the end zone. Instead, Cromartie pretended as if he thought Tebow was still behind the line of scrimmage and turned his back as if he was still in coverage. I wouldn’t be shocked if Cromartie is the anonymous source, either. And if he wants the word ‘terrible’ defined for him, all he has to do is check the tape of the play as I just described.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
|
|
11-16-12 12:35 AM |
|
|
| |
|
CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 11970
|
NFL
Week 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-1, 46)
The slumping Miami Dolphins attempt to even their road record at 3-3 on Thursday night, when they visit the AFC East-rival Buffalo Bills. Miami, which had won two straight before their bye week, made it three in a row on Oct. 28 as they soundly thumped the New York Jets 30-9 on the road. But the Dolphins were edged by the Colts in Indianapolis the following week, dropping them to 2-3 away from home, and suffered their most lopsided home loss since 1968 on Sunday - a 37-3 defeat against Tennessee.
Buffalo will be trying to halt a three-game losing streak as it returns home after two straight on the road. The Bills lost a one-point decision at home to Tennessee on Oct. 21 and followed their bye week with setbacks at Houston and New England. Beginning Thursday, Buffalo will play five of its final seven games at home, including a Week 15 matchup against Seattle at Rogers Centre in Toronto.
TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network.
LINE: This game opened at a pick at most books and action on the Bills has moved the spread to -1. The total has gone from 45 to 46 and has now settled at 45.5 at some markets.
WEATHER: The forecast is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 30s. Winds are expected to East at 5 mph.
ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (4-5, 4-5 ATS): Miami committed four turnovers Sunday that led to 20 points and allowed an opposing running back to gain 100 yards for the first time in 23 games as Chris Johnson rushed for 126 on 23 carries. Rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill threw three interceptions and running back Reggie Bush had a costly fumble that earned him a seat on the bench in the first half. Tannehill had gone four consecutive games without a pick. He may have an easier time Thursday as Buffalo has the 25th-ranked pass defense.
ABOUT THE BILLS (3-6, 4-5 ATS): Buffalo never led Sunday as it lost to New England for the second time this season. Ryan Fitzpatrick connected with Donald Jones from two yards out with 7:47 remaining in the fourth quarter to get the Bills within 34-31. But after a Patriots field goal, the quarterback threw an interception in the end zone with 23 seconds left, ending Buffalo's hopes of notching its first win in 11 tries at Gillette Stadium since it opened in 2002. The Bills lost more than a game as running back Fred Jackson was ruled out of Thursday's game with a concussion after being hit in the head by Patriots linebacker Brandon Spikes late in Sunday's loss. C.J. Spiller will see the bulk of the action against Miami.
TRENDS:
* Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Favorite is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. AFC East.
* Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. AFC East.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Miami won both meetings last season by a combined score of 65-31.
2. Fitzpatrick passed for 337 yards Sunday, making him the fifth QB in Bills history to reach the 10,000-yard mark.
3. Buffalo announced the game, in which it will honor all branches of the military, is sold out.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
|
|
11-16-12 12:37 AM |
|
|
| |
|
CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 11970
|
NFL
Week 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tale of the tape: Dolphins at Bills
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
An AFC East showdown takes the Thursday night spotlight when the Miami Dolphins visit the Buffalo Bills. We break down both sides in our tale of the tape:
Offense
The Dolphins, who average 105.8 yards on the ground per game, tried to spark their rushing offense last week versus Tennessee but mustered only 54 yards on 15 carries including a fumble from RB Reggie Bush. Miami has rushed for only 78.3 yards per game over its last three contests, and hasn’t done much to relieve the pressure on rookie QB Ryan Tannehill, who was intercepted three times in Week 10.
The Bills will be without RB Fred Jackson (concussion) Thursday, leaving the offense to lean on backup C.J. Spiller. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. Spiller averages 7.3 yards per carry this year – best in the NFL – and seems to make big plays whenever he touches the football. Buffalo put up a solid fight versus New England last Sunday, scoring 31 points and boasting a franchise-record 35 first downs. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick passed for 337 yards and two touchdowns in the loss.
Edge: Bills
Defense
Miami has looked to its defense to keep it in ball games this season, allowing just 20.7 points per game – eighth lowest in the NFL. The Dolphins front seven has done a great job plugging up the ground game, giving up 94.2 yards an outing, but that number must be taken with a grain of salt because of how bad Miami is at defending the pass. Opponents are putting up 278 yards through the air each time the Dolphins take the field. Those same opponents are averaging 11.7 yards per completion.
The Bills haven't been doing themselves any favors defensively, allowing at least 35 points in four of their last six games overall. They're giving up a whopping 6.4 yards per play on the season, and have been particularly poor against the run, allowing 5.5 yards per rush. On a positive note, the Dolphins don't appear poised to exploit that weakness, as they're averaging only 3.8 yards per rush. Buffalo has been fairly consistent in terms of its pass rush, averaging 2.7 sacks per game here at home.
Edge: Dolphins
Special teams
The Dolphins return game has been a big positive this season, as they're averaging well north of the league average at 12.3 yards per punt return, and 27.3 yards on kickoffs. Kicker Dan Carpenter has had a bit of an off year, converting on only 13 of 17 field goal attempts. With a sputtering red zone offense, Carpenter could certainly be a factor on Thursday night.
Buffalo has been even better returning punts, one of the league's best teams in that department, averaging 19.5 yards per return. The problem is, they've had a tough time defending punts, giving up 15 yards per return. On kickoff returns, they've been nothing more than average at 26.3 yards per return. Veteran kicker Ryan Lindell has made good on 9 of 10 field goal attempts.
Edge: Bills
Word on the street
"When you play like that, we need to make some corrections. We need to make improvements, even though we're in a semi-time crunch.'' Dolphins head coach Joe Philbin on the team's quick turn-around following Sunday's 37-3 drubbing at the hands of the Titans.
"As an offense, we're definitely going to miss him because he brings so much to our team. But this is familiar territory for me.'' Bills RB C.J. Spiller speaking about the injury to starting tailback Fred Jackson.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
|
|
11-16-12 12:38 AM |
|
|
| |
|
CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 11970
|
Key Divisional Matchups In NFC North, AFC West, AFC North
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 11/18/2012 at 1:00 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Green Bay -3, O/U 51
Television: FOX
Green Bay Packers: The Packers (6-3 straight-up, 4-5 against the spread) won four straight games (3-1 ATS) before having a bye last week. The offense has really come on the last six contests (30.3 points per game) with the "over" going 5-1. There is a key injury on defense with pass rusher Clay Matthews (hamstring) out indefinitely (click to check updated NFL injury report).
Detroit Lions: The Lions (4-5 SU and ATS) find themselves at the bottom of the NFC North with their playoff hopes fading fast. Detroit has played just three home games this year (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) with the next three in Motown. There are major injury concerns in the secondary, which could be a big problem against Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 11/18/2012 at 4:25 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Denver -7, O/U 50 ½
Television: CBS
San Diego Chargers: The Chargers (4-5 SU and ATS) are just 2-5 SU and ATS in their last seven games, and both wins came against the struggling Kansas City Chiefs. One of the recent losses was home versus Denver on October 15, a devastating 35-24 setback after getting outscored 35-0 in the second half.
Denver Broncos: The Broncos (6-3 SU and ATS) have been going in the opposite direction, 4-0 SU and ATS the last four and scoring 34 ppg (the "over" 3-1). Denver QB Peyton Manning is playing at an MVP caliber, but the team can’t be too overconfident with San Diego 5-1 SU and 4-0-2 ATS in the last six at Mile High.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 11/18/2012 at 8:20 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Pick’em, O/U 45 ½
Television: NBC
Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens (7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS) annihilated Oakland last week 55-20 to improve to 5-0 SU (2-3 ATS) at home. However, the road hasn’t been as kind at 2-2 SU (2-2 ATS), but they have won two of the last three at Heinz Field, and a win on Sunday will put them in firm control of the AFC North.
Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS) have won four straight, but QB Ben Roethlisberger is out with a shoulder injury, with Byron Leftwich the replacement (note the spread move). Pittsburgh is 4-0 SU (2-2 ATS) at home this year, with the "under" 7-0 in the team's last seven home games overall. The "over" is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings between these teams in Pittsburgh.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
|
|
11-18-12 04:32 PM |
|
|
| |
|
CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 11970
|
Week 11 NFL Picks For Sunday November 18
Week 11 on the NFL betting card will mark the end of byes on this year's schedule, and the Don Best experts have selected seven games from Sunday's slate to provide analysis and picks.
First stop is Atlanta where the Falcons look to rebound from their first loss of the season vs. Arizona. The Falcons are 9½-10 point favorites with the total at 44 (click to check updated NFL odds).
Tampa Bay is in Carolina as slight 1½-point chalk against the Panthers. This NFC South tilt has a scoreboard figure of 48½-49, and six of the last eight series meetings played in Carolina have failed to reach the total.
Dallas looks to get back to .500 with a win over the visiting Cleveland Browns. The Cowboys are laying 7½-8, and they have won and covered the only two matchups with this edition of the Browns.
The Jets drag a three-game skid on the road when they travel to meet the Rams. St. Louis is favored by a field goal inside the Edward Jones Dome where the total stands at 38½, the lowest on Sunday's schedule.
Houston aims for its fourth consecutive victory in an AFC South clash against the Jaguars. This game started with the Texans laying 16, but the Don Best Real-Time Odds screen shows that number dipping to the 14½-15 point range while the total is 40½.
Another team hoping to reach the .500 mark is Cincinnati, a team that is on the road in Kansas City against the Chiefs. The Bengals are 3½-point favorites to extend KC's losing streak to seven.
Finally, AFC West rivals collide in Denver, where the Broncos are 7½-8 point favorites vs. the Chargers. Four of the last six in this series played in the Mile High City have gone "over" the total, and Sunday's number has dropped from 50½ at the opening bell to 48½.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
|
|
11-18-12 04:35 PM |
|
|
| |
|
CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 11970
|
Sunday, Nov. 18 - All games to start at 1:00 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
Birds 1-8 vs. line this season. Birds have, however, won and covered last three vs. the Shan. Philly has also won and covered last three at FedEx Field. Shan 1-3 vs. line at home TY, 3-8 last 11 as host. Slight to Skins, based on recent trends.
Lions "over" 29-14-2 since late in 2009 season, Pack "over" 19-8 last 27 since late 2010. Pack 10-2 vs. line last 12 meetings. "Over," based on "totals" trends.
Cards now on 6-game spread slide after 10-3 mark vs. points previous 13 games. Falcons 2-2 vs. line at home TY but do not have a win at Georgia Dome by more than 6 points TY. Big Red "under" 7-2 TY and "under" 10-2 last 12 away. Also "under" 13-4-1 last 18 overall. "Under," based on "totals" trends.
Bucs 7-2 vs. line TY and 4-0 vs. line on road and "over" last five in 2012. Cam no covers last four at home. "Over" and Bucs, based on "totals" and team trends.
Cowboys 0-6 last 6, 2-10 last vs. line at Jerry Jones Stadium. Browns, based on team trends.
Jets "over" 32-16-1 since late in 2009 season. Rams 3-1 SU and vs. line at Edward Jones Dome TY. "Over" and Rams, based on "totals" and team trends.
"Road-in-Jag" trend still intact after home loss to Indy last Thursday. Visitor now 9-0 vs. line in J'ville games TY (Jags 4-0 away). But Houston 20-7 vs. line last 27 since late 2010 for Kubiak and has handily won and covered last four in series.
Jags "under" 16-9 since LY. "Under," based on "totals" trends.
Chiefs "over" 6-3 TY after "under" 12-4 LY. Marvin Lewis "over" 15-9-1 since LY. Slight to "over," based on "totals" trends.
Sunday, Nov. 18 - Games to start at 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
Raiders 1-4 vs. line last five at home since late LY, also "over" last four this season. Oakland "over" 12-4 last 16 since late LY. "Over," based on "totals" trends.
Colts have now won and covered last four after Thursday win at J'ville. Belichick only 4-8 vs. spread last 11 at Gillette Stadium. Note road team has covered last four meetings. Pats now "over" 35-12 last 47 since late 2009. "Over" and Colts, based on "totals" and recent trends.
Broncos have won and covered last four TY, Denver also "over" 6-3 this season and "over" 32-15 since late in 2009. "Overs" 9-4 last 13 in series. Bolts have won and covered last three trips to Denver but Norv only 1-4 vs. line last five TY. "Over" and Broncos, based on "totals" and team trends.
Sunday, Nov. 18 - NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
Steelers "under" last seven at Heinz Field and "under" 10-2 last 12 as host, turning around previous "over" home trends. Ravens have won reg.-season games at Heinz last two years (although lost playoff game at Pitt. in 2010) and are 3-0-1 vs. line in reg. Season at Pitt. since 2008. "Under" and slight to Ravens, based on "totals" and series trends.
Monday, Nov. 19 - ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
49ers no covers last three at Stick after 10-1-1 spread mark previous 12 at home for Jim Harbaugh. Bears 3-1 vs. line away TY and 7-3 vs. spread last 10 away since mid 2011. Bears, based on recent trends.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
|
|
11-18-12 04:39 PM |
|
|
| |
|
CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 11970
|
Las Vegas Money Moves
November 16, 2012
We got all kinds of quarterback issues this week that has affected several lines this week ranging from concussions to Michael Vick, Jay Cutler, and Alex Smith to Ben Roethlisberger’s shoulder. Smith is expected to start for the 49ers (-6) Monday night against the Bears, but the other three are listed as OUT.
The big game changer of all has been Roethlisberger. The Steelers were opened as four-point home favorites against their main rival -- the Ravens -- before they played their Monday night game against the Chiefs. When the sports books opened the game back up on Tuesday, the Ravens were a 1 ½-point favorite, a large adjustment for a starting quarterback in the league. By Wednesday afternoon, between a combination of Ravens bets and air moves by the bookmakers, the Ravens had been moved all the way up to -3 ½.
That is a massive move for one player. Early last season we figured that Peyton Manning was worth about nine points to the Colts, which is the highest point value ever associated with a player towards the spread.
Byron Leftwich will be the starter for the Steelers. It will be his first start since 2009. He has lost his past seven starts dating back to 2006 with the Jaguars. While Leftwich may be a little rusty, this rivalry doesn’t seem to care about who is playing. Six of the last 10 meetings between the two teams have been won by a field goal.
However, Roethlisberger’s impact is huge in this rivalry. The Steelers have lost all four games against the Ravens that he has missed, three of them by a field goal and the other by six points.
Roethlisberger being out also affected the total which dropped from 42 ½ to 40.
-- The Redskins opened as three-point favorites with the expectation that Vick wouldn’t play and that number has been driven up to -3.5. Eagles fans had been yelling for back-up Nick Foles to replace Vick all season. Last week against the Cowboys, they got their wish. He wasn’t too bad, but he wasn’t much better than Vick, either.
-- The Packers are three-point favorites at Detroit. The side and total hasn’t moved all week.
-- The Falcons opened as 9-point home favorites against the reeling Cardinals, who have lost five straight games. The game is up to -9 ½.
-- For some reason, we keep believing this will be the week Cam Newton comes up big, but every week, we seem to have another bad loss, whether it’s losing by a big score or losing because of late Newton mishaps. The red-hot Bucs opened as two-point road favorites at Carolina and Panthers money dropped the number to -1.
-- The Cowboys have been bet up from the opener of -7 to -7 ½ for their home game against the Browns.
-- Just when we thought the Jets were getting better after three straight covers, ending with an almost overtime win at New England, they have gone the other way and have been outscored 58-16 in their past two games. The Rams opened as three-point home favorites and have been bet up to -3 ½ at several books. Despite each team only having three wins, the Rams have been much more impressive this season.
-- The Patriots are laying a big number (-9) at home this week against the Colts, but no one has touched it yet. The Patriots haven’t covered any game this season when favored by more than seven points, and the Colts look to be much better right now than those teams the Pats couldn’t put away -- Cardinals, Jets, and Bills.
-- We just saw the Jaguars cover the big number at Green Bay, and now they get +14 ½ at Houston this week. The Texans opened as 15 ½-point favorites, but sharp money jumped all over it with the feeling that two touchdowns is just too many for any team to cover. The Texans have won and covered all three of their double-digit favorite spreads this season.
-- The Bengals, fresh off ending a four-game losing streak, opened as 3 ½-point favorites at Kansas City. Chiefs money has come in dropping the price to +3 ½ (-120).
-- The Saints are 4 ½-point favorites at Oakland. The game hasn’t been touched yet, but expect the move to come on Oakland.
-- The Broncos opened as eight-point home favorites against the Chargers, their highest spread of the season. The Broncos rating has been climbing every week as it looks like their defense, offense and special teams are all in synch. The number dropped to 7 ½, but has been bet back up to the opener.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
|
|
11-18-12 04:45 PM |
|
|
| |
|
CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 11970
|
Total Talk - Week 11
November 17, 2012
Week 10 Recap
The ‘over’ produced an 8-6 ledger last week and once again, total players were helped with some late bursts, which of course created bad beats. For those you who had the ‘under’ in the Detroit-Minnesota and Dallas-Philadelphia matchups, we apologize. The two games saw 42 and 44 points posted in the second-half, including 32 and 27 respectively in the final quarter. On the season, the ‘over’ stands at 75-71-1.
Under the Lights – Literally!
This past Thursday, we thought the Buffalo-Miami game had a good chance to go ‘over’ after the Bills built a 13-7 lead over the Dolphins in the first quarter. The game was still on a good pace at halftime (19-7) but only seven points were scored in the second-half and the combined 33 points fell ‘under’ the closing number of 45 ½. Including this outcome, the ‘under’ has now gone 23-9 (72%) this season in primetime games. Looking at the games this Sunday (Pittsburgh-Baltimore) and Monday (San Francisco-Chicago), it’s safe to say that it would be surprising to see shootouts, especially when two of the four teams will be starting backup quarterbacks. Sometimes it’s better to roll with the trend than try to buck it!
Line Moves
The smart and public money went 2-0 last week with their early bets, both tickets coming in the SNF and MNF matchups. (**) Quarterback injuries have certainly helped this week’s moves, which have all gone down. Does nobody like to bet ‘over’ tickets anymore?
Here are the early moves at CRIS:
** Philadelphia at Washington: Line opened 46 and dropped to 44 ½
Arizona at Atlanta: Line opened 45 ½ and dropped to 44
Jacksonville at Houston: Line opened at 42 ½ and dropped to 40 ½
San Diego at Denver: Line opened at 50 ½ and dropped to 48 ½
** Baltimore at Pittsburgh : Line opened at 45 ½ and dropped to 40
Divisional Rematches
On the season, when opponents meet in their second divisional game, the ‘over’ has gone 5-2 (71%) in these contests. Last week, gamblers following the trend watched the Bills and Patriots play to another shootout. They also got lucky with the Detroit-Minnesota game (see above). This Sunday, there are three rematches on tap and two of them watched the ‘under’ cash in the first go ‘round.
Tampa Bay at Carolina: The Buccaneers defeated the Panthers 16-10 in Week 1 and the closing total of 45 ½ was never threatened. We fast forward 10 weeks and the total is higher (48) for the rematch, but why? For starters, Tampa Bay has watched the ‘over’ cash in six straight games and it’s getting scores from all over. In last week’s 34-24 victory over San Diego, the Bucs got a pick-six and a blocked punt return. Carolina has been held to 14 or less in five of its nine games, which should make you a little hesitant to back the ‘over.’ However, the Bucs defense (401 YPG) is the second-worst in the league and it’s banged-up with injuries too. If Cam Newton can’t produce against this unit, then Carolina has big problems.
Jacksonville at Houston: This number has dropped (see above) and you can understand why when you look at the style of Houston. The Texans’ defense is the second-best in the league and the offense grinds you down, which was clearly shown in Houston’s 27-7 win over Jacksonville in Week 2. It’s hard to argue for the Jaguars offense but they’ve played better on the road, averaging 20.8 points per game. Getting to that number won’t be easy but the Texans could be looking ahead to their Thanksgiving Day battle at Detroit. Including this year’s meeting, the ‘under’ has cashed in three straight between these teams.
San Diego at Denver: The Broncos have been great bets for the betting public lately (4-0 SU/ATS) and the ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in this span. The team hasn’t been held under 31 points during this span, and that includes their 35-24 road win over San Diego on MNF in Week 6. The number of points was a little misleading since turnovers created some short tracks and three touchdowns as well. The Chargers are one tough team to figure out and once again, they’ll probably be the best team not to make the playoffs. As much as you want to rip Phillip Rivers (and he deserves it), this guy puts up big numbers in Colorado. Since taking over in 2006, the Chargers have scored 35, 41, 38, 32, 33 and 29 points with Rivers under center. The Bolts are 5-1 in those games and the one loss came by one point.
Something has to give!
The total on the Patriots-Colts opened at 53 ½ and was pushed up to 54. New England has seen the ‘over’ cash in seven straight games. Meanwhile, Indianapolis has watched the ‘under’ go 6-2-1 on the season and that includes four consecutive ‘under’ tickets. A large reason for the low-scoring affairs is the Colts defense, which has given up 13, 13, 20 and 10 the past four weeks. Let’s be clear that those numbers came against two rookie QBs (Browns, Dolphins) and two inconsistent offenses in the Titans and Jaguars. Outside of a game against Green Bay in Week 5, the Colts haven’t come close to facing an attack similar to the Patriots. The Packers put up 27 points in that contest and you figure New England will at least get to that number. However, if Indianapolis has any realistic shot to win this game then you would expect them to milk the clock with rookie QB Andrew Luck. While we agree with most pundits that Luck is going to be great, he’s had trouble with tossing interceptions (7) on the road and those are daggers for ‘over’ bets.
Fearless Predictions
If it wasn’t for Seattle’s prolific offense, we would’ve had the sweep. Still, we’ll take the profits ($190) and look to build on the positive bankroll ($180). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!
Best Over: Tampa Bay-Carolina 48
Best Under: Baltimore-Pittsburgh 40
Best Team Total: Over Chargers 20 1/2
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 39 Tampa Bay-Carolina
Over 43 ½ Green Bay-Detroit
Under 48 N.Y. Jets-St. Louis
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
|
|
11-18-12 04:48 PM |
|
|
| |
|
CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 11970
|
Week 11 Tips
November 16, 2012
Following a slew of underdog covers through the first half of the season, favorites are starting to cash the last few weeks. Road favorites have improved to 24-27 ATS on the season, while posting a 7-4 ATS mark the last two weeks. Five teams are laying points on the highway in Week 11, including Baltimore on Sunday night at Pittsburgh. We'll take a look at the four 'chalk' squads playing during the day, starting with Green Bay in a divisional showdown.
Packers (-3 ½, 52) at Lions - 1:00 PM EST
Detroit is struggling to stay in the Wild Card race, just one season after making the playoffs. The Lions attempt to reach the .500 mark with a victory over the Packers, coming off a road favorite loss at Minnesota last week. The defeat snapped a four-game ATS hot streak for Jim Schwartz's club, as the Lions look to beat Green Bay for just the second time in the last 11 matchups.
Green Bay is fresh off a bye week, while going for its fifth consecutive victory after beating its last four opponents by at least nine points. The Packers' offense is picking things up recently by cashing the 'over' in five of the last six contests, as Green Bay has topped the 27-point mark five times in this stretch. Mike McCarthy's team has covered just one of three times as a road favorite, but beat the Rams in Week 7 as four-point 'chalk,' 30-20.
Detroit is listed as a home underdog for the first time this season, as the Lions have cashed just once in three contests at Ford Field. In last Sunday's setback at Minnesota, the Lions racked up 329 yards through the air, but never got within a touchdown in a 34-24 loss. Detroit has beaten just one team that currently sits above .500 (Seattle), while both losses to upper-tier NFC teams (Chicago and San Francisco) have come on the highway.
Buccaneers (-1 ½, 48 ½) at Panthers - 1:00 PM EST
Carolina was predicted to make moves inside the NFC South this season, while the jury was out on Tampa Bay. Following a slow start, the Bucs overcame several close losses to put together a three-game winning streak and forge a 5-4 record. Meanwhile, the Panthers can't seem to get any momentum going, while suffering five losses of six points or less.
The latest disappointment for Carolina came in a 36-14 home rout at the hands of red-hot Denver, the second loss at Bank of America Stadium of at least three touchdowns. The Panthers have scored 14 points or less five times this season, including a 10-point effort in a season-opening loss at Tampa Bay as short road favorites. Carolina limited Tampa Bay to 258 yards in that loss, but the Panthers rushed for just 10 yards on 13 carries.
Tampa Bay's offense has blown up recently, scoring 34 points or more in four of the previous five contests. The Bucs continue to make backers happy, owning a 7-2 ATS record, while cashing the 'over' in six straight games. Most of Tampa Bay's success came early in the underdog role, but the Bucs have compiled a 2-1 ATS record as a favorite.
Bengals (-3 ½, 43 ½) at Chiefs - 1:00 PM EST
Kansas City is likely not going to be favored the rest of the season, but managed a cover as a 12 ½-point underdog at Pittsburgh on Monday night. The Chiefs actually took the lead for the first time all season at Heinz Field, but couldn't hold onto a 10-0 advantage to suffer their sixth straight defeat. The Bengals finally found the win column after four straight losses, as Cincinnati put together its most complete effort of the season.
Marvin Lewis' team avoided an 0-3 homestand after defeats to the Steelers and Broncos by dominating the Giants, 31-13 as 3 ½-point 'dogs. Andy Dalton finished a yard shy of 200, but tossed four touchdowns to pick up Cincinnati's first cover at Paul Brown Stadium this season. The Bengals are 0-2 on the road inside the AFC North, but Cincinnati has won both games outside its division against Washington and Jacksonville.
There are not many positives when it comes to the Chiefs, as Kansas City's offense has failed to bust the 16-point mark in each of its last five games (all losses). Two of Kansas City's three covers this season came against AFC North opponents, including a 9-6 defeat to Baltimore as six-point home 'dogs. The Chiefs have won two of the last three home meetings with the Bengals, but Cincinnati claimed the last two matchups in 2008 and 2009.
Saints (-4 ½, 54 ½) at Raiders - 4:05 PM EST
Oakland returns to the Black Hole after getting a black hole blown through them at Baltimore, 55-20 last Sunday. The Raiders have given up a whopping 97 points the last two weeks as they face a Saints' club that is averaging nearly 28 points per game. New Orleans scores plenty of points, but it also allows points at the same frantic rate.
The Saints were the first team to solve the Falcons, handing Atlanta its first defeat of the season last Sunday, 31-27 as one-point underdogs. New Orleans still has an outside shot at returning to the postseason, while searching for its first three-game winning streak of the season. Joe Vitt's club is just 6-10 ATS the last 16 opportunities as a road favorite, including a 1-1 ATS mark this season.
The Raiders will be without running back Darren McFadden (ankle), while going for just their second home cover in five tries. Oakland failed to cash in three chances as a home favorite, but won outright in its lone instance when receiving points at O.Co Coliseum against Pittsburgh in Week 3. Dennis Allen's team hasn't seen a total above 50 all season, as the Raiders finished 'under' the total last time they saw a number in this range (vs. New England last September).
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
|
|
11-18-12 04:51 PM |
|
|
| |
|
CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 11970
|
NFL
Short Sheet
Week 11
Sunday, November 18, 2012
Philadelphia at Washington, 1:00 ET
Philadelphia: 26-9 Under off a combined score of 60+ points
Washington: 1-5 ATS after scoring 14 points or less
Green Bay at Detroit, 1:00 ET
Green Bay: 7-3 Over with a total of 49.5+ points
Detroit: 12-28 ATS off ATS wins in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games
Arizona at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
Arizona: 15-29 ATS away off BB losses
Atlanta: 6-0 ATS at home off a loss
Tampa Bay at Carolina, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 28-12 ATS after scoring 30+ points
Carolina: 4-13 ATS after losing 3 of their last 4 games
Cleveland at Dallas, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 13-4 Under as an underdog
Dallas: 3-12 ATS as a home favorite
NY Jets at St. Louis, 1:00 ET
NY Jets: 8-19 ATS off a road loss by 14+ points
St. Louis: 14-5 Under with a line of +3 to -3
(TC) Indianapolis at New England, 4:25 ET
Indianapolis: 28-13 ATS away after allowing 14 points or less
New England: 9-1 Over at home off 3+ wins
Jacksonville at Houston, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 8-1 Under vs. division opponents
Houston: 16-4 ATS vs. conference opponents
Cincinnati at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
Cincinnati: 1-5 ATS vs. conference opponents
Kansas City: 8-1 Under at home in the second half of the season
New Orleans at Oakland, 4:05 ET
New Orleans: 9-2 ATS off a home win
Oakland: 14-28 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less
San Diego at Denver, 4:25 ET
San Diego: 1-11 ATS off an Over
Denver: 6-0 ATS in November
(TC) Baltimore at Pittsburgh, 8:30 ET NBC
Baltimore: 16-3 Under off BB ATS wins as a favorite
Pittsburgh: 9-5 ATS vs. division opponents
Monday, November 19, 2012
(TC) Chicago at San Francisco, 8:40 ET ESPN
Chicago: 10-3 ATS after winning 2 of their last 3 games
San Francisco: 15-4 Under off a home game
** Week 11 Byes: Minnesota, NY Giants, Seattle, Tennessee **
(TC) = Time Change
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
|
|
11-18-12 05:02 PM |
|
|
| |
|
CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 11970
|
NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 11
Eagles (3-6) @ Redskins (3-6)-- Free-falling Iggles likely to give rookie Foles his first NFL start with Vick having concussion; they've lost last five games, giving up 30.8 ppg in last four- they've changed DC's, hasn't helped. Redskins lost last three games, scoring 12-13 points in last two games (no takeaways, after 16 in first seven games); they're 1-3 at home, but are 0-4 this year when scoring less than 24 points. Philly won five of last six series games, taking last three by 31-7-24 points; Eagles won five of last six visits here, winning last three by 10-31-7. Home teams are 0-5 vs spread in NFC East divisional games. Three of last four Philly games, six of nine Redskin games went over the total. Washington is 0-4 vs spread in last four post-bye games.
Packers (6-3) @ Lions (4-5)-- Green Bay won 12 of last 13 series games, taking five of last six visits here (Rodgers didn't play in loss) with all five wins by 7+ points. Three of last four series games were decided by 4 or less points. Since '04, Green Bay is 8-4 as a road favorite in divisional games. Packers won five of last six (6-0 vs spread) in last six post-bye games; they're 2-2 away from home- this is their 4th game in dome this year. Detroit is 2-1 at home, with only loss 20-13 to Vikings (Minnesota didn't have offensive TD in game, but had PR/KR for TDs). Underdogs covered four of first five NFC North divisional games. Five of last six Packer games, four of last five Detroit games went over total.
Cardinals (4-5) @ Falcons (8-1)-- Since 2008, Atlanta is 17-3-1 vs spread when they lost previous week; they lost for first time last week in Superdome, are 4-0 at home this year, 2-2 as home favorites, winning by 6-2-3-6 points, so hard to lay double digits with them. Home side won five in row and nine of last 10 series games, with average total in last three, 53.0; Cardinals lost last five visits here, with three losses by 23+ points- they lost 41-7 in last visit here, two years ago. Redbirds lost last five games after 4-0 start, scoring 10.6 ppg; they won all four times they scored 20+ points. Arizona is 1-5 vs spread in last six post-bye games. NFC South teams are 8-6 vs spread in non-divisional games, 6-6 at home; NFC West underdogs are 10-6, 6-5 on foreign soil.
Buccaneers (5-4) @ Panthers (2-7)-- Tampa Bay is finding ways to win; in last week's win over San Diego, they had blocked punt for TD and defensive TD. In their last three games, Bucs scored 36-42-34 points; they've got 20 TDs on last 54 drives in last five games, and are 4-0 vs spread on road. Carolina looked like beaten team when they got smoked by Denver last week; they lost 16-10 (-2.5) in season opener down in Tampa; Panthers ran ball only 13 times for 10 yards- five of their seven losses are by 6 or less points. Underdogs covered four of first five NFC South divisional games. Last six Tampa Bay games went over total; three of Panthers' last four home games stayed under.
Browns (2-7) @ Cowboys (4-5)-- Sandwich game (Eagles/Redskins) for Dallas team that kept season alive with win in Philly; they're 1-2 at home this year, 0-3 vs spread, with only win 16-10 (-7.5) over Bucs. Cleveland is 1-3 as a road dog, losing all four games by 7-7-14-4 points- they're 5-8-2 in last 15 games against NFC teams. Dallas covered five of last six vs AFC opponents. Favorites are 10-1 vs spread in Cleveland's post-bye games, with Browns 0-6 as post-bye dogs; they've lost both meetings with Cowboys, 28-10/19-12. NFC East favorites are 3-12 vs spread in non-divisional games, 2-7 at home; AFC North road underdogs are 3-4. Five of last seven Cleveland games stayed under the total.
Jets (3-6) @ Rams (3-5-1)-- Mark Sanchez faced his old college coach last week in Seattle; he faces his old offensive coordinator here, as Schottenheimer landed in St Louis after Jets ran him out of town. Two teams with similar records going in opposite directions; Jets lost last three games, last two by 58-16 combined score. Only Jet TD last week was scored by defense. Rams are 0-3-1 in last four games, but tied 49ers at Candlestick last week, showing improvement. St Louis is 3-1 at home, with only loss to Packers- they're favored for first time this year, but are 3-0 in games where the spread was 3 or less points. NFC West non-divisional home favorites are 4-3; AFC East road underdogs are 4-5.
Colts (6-3) @ Patriots (6-3)-- Who thought this would be a big game this year? New England is 1-3 as home favorite, with wins by 10-3-6 points, and a loss to Arizona- they allowed 20+ points in seven of last eight games. Colts are playing inspired ball with HC Pagano ill; they've won/covered last four games, are 4-2 as underdogs, 1-2 on road, but two of their three losses were by 20-26 points (also lost to Jags by 5). Patriots won last two series games (31-28/31-24) after losing five of previous six to Indy; last seven series games were decided by 7 or less points. AFC East favorites are 6-5 vs spread, 3-3 at home; AFC South dogs are 10-8, 5-4 on foreign soil. Last seven Patriot games went over total; under is 3-0-1 in Colts' last four.
Jaguars (1-8) @ Texans (8-1)-- Trap game for Houston, after national TV win vs Bears, before Thanksgiving Day in Detroit; they hammered Jags 27-7 (-7.5) back in Week 2, outrushing hosts 216-65, holding Jax to 117 total yards, seven 3/outs in 11 drives. Texans won last four series games by average score of 26-13; they are 4-1 as home favorites, winning home games by 20-24-30-12 points. Jaguars lost last six games (2-4 vs spread); they're 4-0 as road underdogs, losing away games by 3-3-9 points, with win at Indy- they had three extra days to prepare. Under is 5-3 in Jags' last eight games. Home teams are 1-4 vs spread in AFC South divisional tilts; home favorites are 7-16-1 league-wide in divisional games.
Bengals (4-5) @ Chiefs (1-8)-- First road game in five weeks for Bengals, who forced four turnovers in home upset of Giants last week; Cincy is 4-0 when it scores 27+ points, 0-5 when it doesn't- they're 2-2 on road, with dog covering last three. Chiefs allowed 24+ points in seven of nine games, losing 16-13 in slop in OT at Pittsburgh Monday- they have three TDs on last 55 drives, but finally had a lead on Monday. Home side won nine of last 11 series games, with Bengals losing six of last eight visits to Arrowhead. AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 5-9 vs spread, 2-2 at home; AFC North favorites are 3-9, 0-4 on road. Three of four Bengal road games, three of last four KC games went over total.
Saints (4-5) @ Raiders (3-6)-- Oakland gave up 42-55 points last two games (12 TDs allowed on last 27 drives) now explosive Saints come to town; if Freeman, Flacco averaged 7.6/10.0 ypa, what will Brees get? Oakland is 2-2 at home, with last three of those going over total; Raiders allowed average of 29.5 ppg at home this year. Saints won four of last five games; they're 1-3 on road, with only win by 7 at Tampa Bay- they covered last three tries as a favorite. Saints won five of last seven series games, winning last two played here, 13-10/31-26. NFC South favorites are 8-6 vs spread, 2-0 on road; AFC West underdogs are 5-9, 2-2 at home. Three of Saints' four road games went over total.
Chargers (4-5) @ Broncos (6-3)-- San Diego lost four of last five games, allowing four TDs on defense/special teams last four games; Denver won/covered four in row, scoring five TDs on defense/special teams. Broncos (+1.5) won 35-24 first time teams met in Week 6, forcing six SD turnovers (+3) in game Bolts led 24-0 at half. Denver scored 31+ points in all six wins; 21-25-21 in losses. San Diego allowed 7-13-34 points in last three games, but only one of three Buc TDs was allowed by defense. This is Norv Turner's last stand as Charger coach. Favorites are 4-2 in AFC West divisional games, 2-2 at home. Five of last six San Diego games, four of last five Bronco games went over the total.
Ravens (7-2) @ Steelers (6-3)-- Health of Roethlisberger's shoulder big concern for Steelers, who won last four games, but were lucky to do so with Leftwich under center in Heinz quagmire Monday night. Steelers are 4-0 at home, allowing average of 12.3 ppg; in last three games overall, they've allowed three TDs on 31 drives. Ravens are +9 in turnovers; they're 2-2 on road, woth wins over Browns, Chiefs, maybe two worst teams in NFL. Ravens scored TD on defense/special teams in four of seven wins. Baltimore swept series 35-7/23-20 LY; they've won two of last three visits here, are 4-3 in last seven series games overall. Last four Pittsburgh games stayed under total; three of last four Raven games went over.
Bears (7-2) @ 49ers (6-2-1)-- Both starting QB's got concussions last week; not sure if either will play, but both teams have decent backups. Home teams won last 10 series games; Bears lost last seven visits here, with last win in '85, season Chicago won only Super Bowl. Bears' only losses came in night games; they are 3-1 on road, with all three wins by 16+ points. Chicago was +16 in turnovers in first half of season, but was -2 in loss Sunday; they;ve turned ball over 8 times in last three games, as sputtering offense was hidden by aggressive defense. 49ers are 2-3 as home favorites, losing to Giants, tying Rams. NFC West non-divisional home favorites are 4-3 vs spread; NFC North road underdogs are 1-3.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
|
|
11-18-12 05:04 PM |
|
|
| |
|
CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 11970
|
NFL poolies betting cheat sheet: Week 11
Philadelphia at Washington (-3.5, 43.5)
Philadelphia suffered its fifth straight defeat with Sunday's 38-23 loss to Dallas and now limps into Washington on Sunday without the services of QB Michael Vick (concussion), according to multiple reports. Nick Foles will get the nod after completing 22 of 32 pass attempts for 219 yards with a touchdown and an interception in relief of Vick last week. Redskins feature back Alfred Morris, who is seventh in the league with 793 rushing yards, will look to exploit an Eagles defense which is allowing 4.5 yards per carry during the team's losing skid. Philadelphia has played under the total in its last six road games.
Green Bay at Detroit (3.5, 51.5)
The Packers look for their fifth consecutive win when they visit Detroit on Sunday. Green Bay has owned Detroit, winning 12 of the last 13 meetings. Aaron Rodgers has caught fire, throwing for 15 touchdowns and just one interception over the last four games. But the Pack will be without team sack leader Clay Matthews, who has been ruled out with a hamstring injury. Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last six games in Detroit.
Arizona at Atlanta (-9.5, 44)
Atlanta was the last NFL team clinging to perfection until a 31-27 loss at New Orleans last week while the Cardinals are coming off a much-needed bye week after losing five straight. Five of Arizona's nine games (three wins, two losses) have been decided by seven points or fewer, while the Falcons are 5-1 in such games. John Skelton is expected to make another start at QB for the Cards as Kevin Kolb will miss his fourth straight game with rib and shoulder injuries. The Arizona defense ranks second in the league against the pass, which should give the Cardinals a fighting chance against the Falcons' high-flying offense. These teams have played over the total in their last four meetings.
Tampa Bay at Carolina (1, 49)
The Buccaneers have won four of their past five games to surge back into the NFC playoff picture. Tampa Bay's unexpectedly explosive offense has put up 28 or more points in five straight games, thanks to the emergence of RB Doug Martin. The rookie is the only player in the NFL with over 800 rushing yards and 200 receiving yards. Tampa Bay's first four games were decided by a touchdown or less, but its past five have featured an average margin of 14.8 points. The Bucs have played over the total in their last six overall.
Cleveland at Dallas (-9.5, 43.5)
The Cowboys haven't registered back-to-back victories since a four-game winning streak in November 2011, but they have a golden chance against the Browns, who are trying to avoid a franchise-record 12th consecutive road loss. Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray (foot) is expected to miss his fifth straight game, putting Felix Jones in line for another start. Browns CB Joe Haden (oblique) missed practice Thursday and is a game-time decision for Sunday’s contest. Dallas is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games.
New York Jets at St. Louis (-3.5, 38.5)
New York is averaging fewer than 200 passing yards and has been held to 10 points or fewer in four of its six losses. Mark Sanchez has thrown nearly as many interceptions (nine) as touchdowns (10) and went just 9-of-22 for 124 yards and a pick in the 28-7 loss at Seattle last week. Steven Jackson, who rushed over 100 yards last week in San Francisco, could have a big day against a New York defense that ranks 30th against the run. These teams have played over the total in four of their last five meetings.
Jacksonville at Houston (-15, 40.5)
The Texans have rebounded from their only loss of the season with a vengeance, winning three straight while allowing just one touchdown and outscoring their opponents 77-28. Since defeating the Indianapolis Colts in Week 3, Jacksonville has given its fans little to cheer about, going 0-6 while scoring more than 15 points only once. Houston prevailed 27-7 in Week 2 against the Jags, who gained a franchise-low 117 yards in the loss. But surprisingly, Jacksonville is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games.
Cincinnati at Kansas City (3.5, 43.5)
The quarterback carrousel continues for the Chiefs, who are forced to play Matt Cassel for a third straight game while Brady Quinn recovers from a concussion. The Chiefs can’t score regardless of who is under center (16.2 ppg – 30th) and compound the issue by having the worst turnover differential in the league (-20). The only good news from Monday's loss to the Steelers was that Kansas City held a lead in regulation for the first time – ending the league’s longest streak of futility since 1929. The Bengals are coming off a big victory against the defending Super Bowl-champion New York Giants last week but have a few injury issues on defense. Standout rookie free agent LB Vontaze Burfict, who is second on the team with 62 tackles, is questionable due to an elbow injury. CB Nate Clements (knee) and S Reggie Nelson (hamstring) are also questionable.
New Orleans at Oakland (4.5, 54.5)
The Saints’ offense could be in for another big day Sunday when it visits Oakland. Drew Brees has owned the Raiders, passing for 1,248 yards, 13 TDs and no interceptions in his last six games against Oakland – all wins. The Raiders’ stop unit has surrendered 97 points over the last two weeks and is now allowing a league-worst 31.6 points per game. Running backs Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson are both dealing with high ankle sprains and are questionable. The Saints have won 13 straight November games and have covered in five of their last six overall.
San Diego at Denver (-8.5, 48.5)
The Broncos posted one of the greatest comebacks in NFL history when they rallied from a 24-point halftime deficit to defeat the Chargers 35-24 at San Diego earlier in the season. The Chargers turned the ball over six times in the game, five of those coming in the second half. With Peyton Manning back in Pro Bowl form, Denver has won four straight and could put a stranglehold on the division title if it makes it five in row on Sunday. The Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
Indianapolis at New England (-9.5, 54.5)
The Colts are 5-1 since head coach Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia as his situation has galvanized the team. However, Indianapolis does have a few key injuries to deal with this week. Linebacker Dwight Freeney has been less than 100 percent for most of the season and the Colts placed CB Jerraud Powers on IR earlier in this week. While the Patriots continue to score with ease, leading the NFL in scoring average at 33.2 points, the defense ranks 29th against the pass and 25th overall. The Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, while the Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh (3.5, 40)
Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger was knocked out of Monday’s overtime win against Kansas City with a shoulder injury and has been ruled out against the Ravens. Veteran signal-caller Byron Leftwich, who hasn’t started a game since 2009, has been named Big Ben's replacement. While Roethlisberger’s absence will help the Ravens’ defense, Joe Flacco will still have to go up against the best secondary in the league. Baltimore dominated the Raiders last Sunday in a 55-20 victory, scoring three touchdowns in the passing game, two in the running game and two on special teams. The under is 7-0 in Pittsburgh’s last seven home games.
Chicago at San Francisco (OFF)
Off-field news has dominated the headlines leading up to this Monday night clash. Quarterbacks Alex Smith and Jay Cutler were each knocked out of their respective games last week with concussions and on Thursday news broke that 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh was undergoing a minor procedure for an irregular heartbeat. Sportsbooks have been keeping their lines off the board, waiting for an update on the extent of the injuries to both starting QBs before making a decision. Cutler was officially ruled out of action by the team Friday afternoon, which means Jason Campbell will be under center. San Francisco and Chicago rank 1-2 in the league in fewest points allowed with 14.1 and 14.8, respectively. The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
|
|
11-18-12 05:08 PM |
|
|
| |
|
| |
|
