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NFL poolies betting cheat sheet: Week 9
Carolina at Washington (-3.5, 47)
The Panthers are trying to salvage a season that has gone awry because of five losses by six points or fewer. They've dropped five straight and QB Cam Newton is mired in a sophomore slump. Newton has thrown eight interceptions and only five touchdowns. The Washington defense has been dreadful this season, allowing more than 350 total yards in every game and more than 420 four times. The underdog is 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings.
Arizona at Green Bay (-11, 43.5)
Arizona was among the league's biggest surprises after opening the campaign with four straight victories, but they have come to a screeching halt during their current four-game skid, scoring a total of three touchdowns and averaging only nine points per game during that span. The Packers are going for a fourth straight victory but are missing top receiver Greg Jennings (abdominal) and fellow wideout Jordy Nelson is nursing a hamstring injury. Green Bay has played over the total in four of its last five games and faces its lowest number of the season Sunday (43.5).
Detroit at Jacksonville (4, 44)
The Lions squeaked out a 28-24 decision over the Seahawks last week and look to post back-to-back wins for the first time against the Jaguars, who will try to avoid a five-game losing skid. Jacksonville put up 341 yards of total offense last week against Green Bay without star RB Maurice Jones-Drew (foot) and QB Blaine Gabbert threw for a season-high 303 yards and a score. Jacksonville also held the dangerous Green Bay offense to a season-low 238 total yards. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
Chicago at Tennessee (3.5, 43.5)
Matt Hasselbeck will start at QB in place of the injured Jake Locker but will be going up against a Chicago defense that is tied for the league lead with 16 interceptions. Titans RB Chris Johnson has gone over 100 yards from scrimmage in each of the last three weeks and will try to take some pressure off Hasselbeck. However, the Bears’ stop unit is yielding a league-best 77.9 yards per game while forcing 12 fumbles this season. The road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
Denver at Cincinnati (3.5, 47.5)
The Bengals must find a way to slow down Peyton Manning, who went 7-0 with 17 TDs and three INTs against Cincinnati as a member of the Colts. Manning has quieted some of his early-season critics by throwing 12 TDs while being picked off just once over the last four games. Denver may also get a boost on defense with the return of CB Tracy Porter, who has missed the last two games while dealing with the side effects from seizures. The Bengals are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.
Baltimore at Cleveland (3.5, 42.5)
The Ravens are coming off a bye week and have emerged victorious in the last nine meetings against the Browns - including a 23-16 triumph on Sept. 27. Cleveland stood tall and held San Diego to just a pair of field goals in a 7-6 victory last Sunday. Rookie RB Trent Richardson showed no effects of a rib injury and gashed the Chargers for a season-best 122 yards and a TD. The Ravens have failed to cover in their last five games overall.
Buffalo at Houston (-10, 47.5)
Buffalo is ranked last in nearly every defensive statistic including allowing an NFL-leading 32.4 points per game. Led by Arian Foster, Houston’s elite running game could have its way with a Bills team that is allowing an average of 176 yards a game on the ground and has surrendered 937 yards rushing over their last four games. Buffalo DE Mario Williams underwent wrist surgery last week but expects to play in his return to Houston. The Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week.
Miami at Indianapolis (1, 43)
Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill’s availability for this game is in question due to a bone bruise in his left knee but he was at practice on Wednesday, splitting snaps with backup Matt Moore. The Miami special teams unit was stellar in last week’s win over the Jets, becoming the first team in 20 years to block a punt, block a field goal and recover an onside kick. Andrew Luck is one 300-yard passing performance away from tying Peyton Manning’s rookie mark with four and has already helped double Indianapolis’ win total from last season. The Dolphins are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
Minnesota at Seattle (-4, 38.5)
The Seahawks suffered their second straight loss in gut-wrenching fashion, surrendering the winning touchdown with 20 seconds to play in last week's 28-24 loss at Detroit. Minnesota will be looking to rebound from an embarrassing 36-17 home loss to Tampa Bay, its second defeat in three games following a 4-1 start to the season. The Seahawks are 3-0 at home this season with impressive victories over Dallas, Green Bay and New England. Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last six at CenturyLink Field.
Tampa Bay at Oakland (-1, 46.5)
Bucs QB Josh Freeman has passed for 10 TDs against two INTs in his past four games and RB Doug Martin had his best professional game against the Vikings last week, totaling 214 yards from scrimmage. Raiders’ tailback Darren McFadden also had a breakout performance last week, running for a season-high 114 yards in Oakland’s 26-16 win over the Chiefs. Tampa Bay is 3-0 ATS on the road this season.
Pittsburgh at N.Y. Giants (-3.5, 47.5)
Eli Manning and the Giants offense will be up against the NFL's top-rated pass defense that is allowing just 182.6 passing yards per game. Even more impressive is that the Pittsburgh stop unit is getting it done without star S Troy Polamalu, who is set to miss his fourth consecutive game with a strained right calf. The Steelers rushing attack could receive a massive boost this Sunday with the possible return of both Rashard Mendenhall (Achilles) and Isaac Redman (ankle). Jonathan Dwyer has filled in admirably for the injured duo, racking up 229 yards on the ground in consecutive Steeler victories. Pittsburgh is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games.
Dallas at Atlanta (-4, 47.5)
The Falcons, who are the lone undefeated team in the league, are coming off a convincing 30-17 rout at Philadelphia in which QB Matt Ryan threw three TD passes on their first three possessions. The victory moved Atlanta to 7-0 for the first time in franchise history and padded its lead in the division to four games over Tampa Bay. However, the Falcons have been far from dominant at home this season, winning their three games by a total of 11 points. The turnover-riddled Cowboys erased a 23-0 deficit at home against the Giants last week before falling late to absorb their third loss in four games. The Cowboys have played under the total in six of their last seven road games.
Philadelphia at New Orleans (-3, 51.5)
Eagles coach Andy Reid is feeling the heat after his squad dropped its third straight game last Sunday and was mulling a quarterback change this week. But Michael Vick will resume his traditional role of starting, albeit after guiding a flat offense once again in a 30-17 loss to undefeated Atlanta. Vick will have a chance to break out of his slump against a New Orleans defense that has yielded an average of 474.7 yards per game – 50 yards more than the 31st-ranked Buffalo defense. The Saints are the first team to allow 400 yards in seven consecutive games since 1950. The teams have played over the total in their last five meetings.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-04-12 01:03 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
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NFL
Sunday, November 4
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Broncos at Bengals: What bettors need to know
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Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (4, 48)
It took him some time to shake off the rust of a year-long layoff, but Peyton Manning is officially back. The NFL’s only four-time MVP has the AFC West-leading Denver Broncos rolling and he’ll try to keep it going on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals, who return from their bye week looking to end a three-game skid. Despite banging his thumb on a helmet early, Manning was 22-of-30 for 305 yards and three touchdowns in a dominating 34-14 victory over the New Orleans.
Manning has passed for over 300 yards in a franchise-record five straight games. He’s also the first player to record four straight games of 300-plus yards and three touchdowns with a completion percentage over 70 percent. The Bengals have had a week to devise ways to slow down Manning, who went 7-0 with 17 touchdowns and three interceptions against Cincinnati with the Colts. Denver has won three straight and 12 of the last 14 meetings. Willis McGahee ran for 101 yards and a score in last season’s 24-22 victory in Denver.
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
LINE: Broncos -4, O/U 48.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-40s under partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the north at 6 mph.
ABOUT THE BRONCOS (4-3): Manning has quieted some of his early-season critics by throwing for 12 touchdowns and just one interception over the last four games. He orchestrated an offense that amassed 300 yards passing and 200 yards rushing for the first time in six years against New Orleans. The team got a brief scare when Manning smacked his thumb on a defender’s helmet in the second quarter (he didn't miss a play). Willis McGahee had 122 of the Broncos’ season-best 225 rushing yards and the 31-year-old is proving he still has plenty in the tank (he’s 10th in the league with 554 yards). Denver’s defense, ranked 14th in scoring (21.7) after holding New Orleans in check, will be without CB Tracy Porter. Porter, who has missed the last two games while dealing with side effects from seizures, has resumed practicing but didn't travel with the team to Cincinnati.
ABOUT THE BENGALS (3-4): While Manning’s resurgence has sparked the Broncos, the Bengals have hit a lull after a hot start due to the struggles of second-year quarterback Andy Dalton. “The Red Rifle” has thrown six interceptions during the losing streak and was held to 105 yards in a 24-17 loss to Pittsburgh prior to the bye week – his lowest total since his pro debut. The Bengals rely heavily on Dalton and second-year wideout A.J. Green, who has scored in six straight games and is tied for the league lead in touchdowns (7), because the rushing attack has been non-existent. Cincinnati is 23rd in rushing (96.6) with BenJarvus Green-Ellis averaging a mere 3.4 yards per carry.
TRENDS:
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Over is 5-1 in Broncos’ last six road games.
* Bengals are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four home games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Denver has outscored opponents 69-14 over the last six quarters, starting with the magical Monday night comeback against San Diego on Oct. 15.
2. Cincinnati, ranked 16th against the pass (233.1), has allowed just one 300-yard game this season when Cleveland's Brandon Weeden threw for 322 yards in Week 2.
3. Normally reserved Bengals coach Marvin Lewis challenged Dalton to be more of a leader, saying he needed him to “grab this football team by the back of its neck and (say) 'Let's go. Let's move forward.' "
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-04-12 04:02 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
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NFL
Sunday, November 4
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Steelers at Giants: What bettors need to know
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Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants (-3.5, 48)
Two playoff contenders clash Sunday afternoon when the resurgent Pittsburgh Steelers travel to New York to face the defending Super Bowl champion Giants. The Giants are in complete control of the NFC East after holding on to beat Dallas despite blowing a 23-point lead last week, but they have to make up some ground on undefeated Atlanta to work their way into position for the NFC's top seed.
The Steelers have won two straight by getting back to playing smash-mouth football. They've averaged 148.5 rushing yards the past two weeks and allowed just 220 total yards per game during that span. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger might mix things up and try to exploit a Giants defense that allowed 415 passing yards to Dallas last week. New York has won four of the past six meetings, including a 21-14 victory in the most recent clash in 2008.
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.
LINE: Giants -3.5, O/U 48.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-40s and sunny skies. Winds will blow out of the north at 8 mph.
ABOUT THE STEELERS (4-3): The rise of Pittsburgh's run game has come on the shoulders of Jonathan Dwyer, who started the season as the third-string back but has taken over the featured role with injuries to Rashard Mendenhall (Achilles) and Isaac Redman (ankle). Ironically, Dwyer (quad) has been limited in practice this week and is listed as doubtful - as is Mendenhall - but Redman is on track to play.
ABOUT THE GIANTS (6-2): New York's offense has been balanced and effective with Eli Manning leading the passing game and Ahmad Bradshaw and Andre Brown heading the ground game. The defense has given up big chunks of yardage but has done a solid job of keeping opponents out of the end zone thanks to 24 turnovers.
TRENDS:
* Steelers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games.
* Giants are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 4-1 in Steelers’ last five road games.
* Under is 6-0 in Giants’ last six games following an ATS win.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. The Steelers have allowed only one team to top 100 yards rushing (Oakland, 119) and have not allowed an opponent to pass for 300 yards.
2. The Giants are 10-0 when Bradshaw tops 100 rushing yards. He has averaged 102 yards in his past four games against AFC teams.
3. Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin is in position to earn his 60th career victory.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-04-12 04:04 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
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NFL
Sunday, November 4
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Sunday Night Football: Cowboys at Falcons
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Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5, 47.5)
Having turned the NFC South race into a runaway, the Atlanta Falcons will look to remain perfect when they host the enigmatic Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night. The league's lone undefeated team, the Falcons are coming off convincing 30-17 rout at Philadelphia in which quarterback Matt Ryan threw touchdown passes on their first three possessions. The victory moved Atlanta to 7-0 for the first time in franchise history and padded its lead in the division to four games over Tampa Bay.
The turnover-riddled Cowboys erased a 23-0 deficit at home against the New York Giants before falling late to absorb their third loss in four games. Dallas has not put together a solid all-around effort since beating the Giants on the road in the season opener. Ryan is 29-5 as a starter at the Georgia Dome, but Atlanta has been far from dominant at home this season, winning its three games by a total of 11 points.
TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.
LINE: Falcons -4, O/U 47.5.
ABOUT THE COWBOYS (3-4): Quarterback Tony Romo has always been a lightning rod for criticism, but it's been justified this season as he has turned the ball over at an alarming pace. Romo was intercepted four times against the Giants to give him an NFL-worst 13 - three more than he thew all last season. Romo also threw for a career-high 437 yards in the game and was within an out-of-bounds fingertip of giving Dallas consecutive wins for the first time this season. The running game has struggled all season and has been non-existent with DeMarco Murray missing the last two games. Murray (foot) has been ruled out for Sunday.
ABOUT THE FALCONS (7-0): Atlanta is coming off its most impressive outing of the season, scoring on its first six possessions to dismantle the Eagles. Ryan had the third-highest passer rating of his career (137.4) in throwing for 262 yards and the three TDs. Julio Jones had his first 100-yard game since Week 1 with five catches for 123 yards and one touchdown. Ryan has thrived despite a running game that ranks 24th in the league at 95.0 yards per game. Veteran Michael Turner has failed to average more than three yards per carry in four of the seven games, but he continues to get a sizable number of carries as the Falcons seek to maintain balance in their offense.
TRENDS:
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 6-1 in Cowboys’ last seven road games.
* Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five Week 9 games.
* Cowboys are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. The Falcons are 28-0 when Ryan has a passer rating above 100, including 5-0 this season.
2. The Cowboys ranked fourth overall in total defense (292.4 yards per game) and third against the pass (187.7).
3. Atlanta TE Tony Gonzalez needs one TD pass to reach 100 for his career.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-04-12 04:05 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
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NFL
Monday, November 5
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Monday Night Football: Eagles at Saints
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Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-3, 51.5)
Two of this season's underachieving teams will meet on Monday night as the Philadelphia Eagles invade the Crescent City for a date with the New Orleans Saints. While Drew Brees will undoubtedly be at the helm of the struggling Saints, initial reports had Eagles coach Andy Reid mulling the idea of a change at quarterback. Despite the talk, Michael Vick will resume his traditional role of starting, albeit after guiding a flat offense once again in a 30-17 loss to undefeated Atlanta last week.
Brees' job security is in far better shape than Vick's, but his performance in Sunday night's 34-14 setback to Denver left a bit to be desired. In interim coach Joe Vitt's first contest since returning to the sideline from suspension, the top-rated passing game mustered just 213 yards as New Orleans' two-game winning streak came to an end. Once again, a porous defensive effort contributed mightily to the Saints' undoing - a factor which could help the Eagles snap a three-game losing skid.
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE: Saints -3, O/U 51.5.
ABOUT THE EAGLES (3-4): Although he scored two touchdowns, running back LeSean McCoy was held to just 45 yards against the Falcons. McCoy could take the mounting pressure off the Eagles' passing game by getting untracked against the Saints, who allowed 225 yards on the ground to the Broncos. Vick could feast on a New Orleans defense which has yielded an average of 474.7 yards per contest this season - 50 yards more than 31st-ranked Buffalo.
ABOUT THE SAINTS (2-5): Despite a sluggish effort versus Denver, the high-octane offense of New Orleans is expected to give new Philadelphia defensive coordinator Todd Bowles plenty to think about. Tight end Jimmy Graham returned from a one-game absence due to a sprained right ankle with five catches, 63 yards and a score. Marques Colston posted the same numbers, but was held without a touchdown for the first time in three games. The Saints will be without RB and second-leading receiver Darren Sproles, who underwent hand surgery.
TRENDS:
* Over is 5-0 in their last five meetings.
* Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in New Orleans.
* Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five Monday games.
* Saints are 7-1 ATS in their last eight November games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. The Saints' rushing attack has been limited to 72.6 yards per game this season - a full 12.5 yards less than 31st-ranked Oakland.
2. Philadelphia DE Jason Babin has struggled coming off his 18-sack season in 2011. Babin, who has just 2.5 this season, was benched for poor performance
during Sunday's game versus Atlanta.
3. New Orleans is the first team since 1950 to allow 400 yards in seven consecutive games.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-06-12 12:27 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
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NFL
Monday, November 5
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Tale of the tape: Eagles at Saints
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Take a quick glance at the tale of the tape for Monday night’s showdown between the Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints.
Offense
Although he scored two touchdowns, RB LeSean McCoy was held to just 45 yards against the Falcons last week. McCoy could take the mounting pressure off the Eagles' passing game by getting untracked against the Saints, who most recently allowed 225 yards on the ground to the Broncos. Michael Vick was held under 200 yards passing for the second time in three games, throwing for 191 despite 35 attempts. Coach Andy Reid was mulling over a QB change for this contest, but has decided to give Vick a shot at redemption against the Saints.
Drew Brees' job security is in far better shape than Vick's, but his performance in Sunday night's 34-14 setback to Denver left a bit to be desired. In interim coach Joe Vitt's first contest since returning to the sideline from suspension, the top-rated passing game mustered just 213 yards. The Saints will be without RB and second-leading receiver Darren Sproles, who recently underwent hand surgery. The New Orleans rushing attack has been limited to 72.6 yards per game this season - a full 12.5 yards less than 31st-ranked Oakland.
Edge: Saints
Defense
The Philadelphia stop unit didn't show much improvement last Sunday in its first game since secondary coach Todd Bowles replaced Juan Castillo as defensive coordinator. The Eagles surrendered a season-high 146 rushing yards and allowed scores on the Falcons' first six possessions. Less than 15 months after being diagnosed with a brain abnormality, DT Mike Patterson was activated from the reserve/non-football illness list Saturday and will suit up Monday.
New Orleans is the first team since 1950 to allow 400 yards in seven consecutive games. The Saints rank 30th in points allowed (30.9) and are allowing an NFL-worst 474.7 yards per game, more than 100 worse than last season's team which went 13-3. They showed no improvement last Sunday, allowing a season-high 530 yards.
Edge: Eagles
Special teams
The Saints' special teams took a hit this week with the injury to Sproles, who handles both kickoffs (averaging 28.7 yards per return) and punts (a 6.6-yard average). Special teams captain Courtney Roby (shoulder) has also being ruled of Monday night’s contest. However, K Thomas Morstead boasts an average punt of 51.3 yards (second highest in the NFL) and the return coverage is keeping that at 46.4 average yards net on punts – tops in the league.
The Eagles' special teams are nothing special, largely because coordinator Bobby April doesn't have the personnel to work with. April said WR Damaris Johnson will return punts vs. the Saints. "Damaris will be the guy. I know he's looking forward to it," April said this week. "He's from New Orleans. It'll be a big homecoming for him and I think he'll play really well."
Edge: Saints
Word on the street
"They are fixable…There were a lot of things (that were covered in) training camp, day one kind of things that shouldn't have happened. We corrected them in the meetings and we'll go from there." -- Todd Bowles on the team’s defensive issues.
"My biggest nightmare against Michael Vick was in 2004 in a playoff game when I was with the Rams… That was my first exposure to him, and he ran for 180 yards. I want to say this about Michael Vick, he is truly one of those gifted athletes that, from a coaching standpoint, can keep you up at night."—Joe Vitt on his perception of Michael Vick.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-06-12 12:28 AM |
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CNOTES
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MNF - Eagles at Saints
November 3, 2012
A pivotal game takes place for two desperate teams in the NFC on Monday night in New Orleans, as the Saints and Eagles each try to get back into the playoff race. Philadelphia has seen plenty of controversy this season with the whispers of Michael Vick being replaced at quarterback after posting a 3-4 record through seven games. That's nothing compared to all the talk around the Saints since "Bountygate," culminating in a dreadful 2-5 mark.
The Saints have endured plenty of hardships this season with head coach Sean Payton suspended and all the flux surrounding this team with the "Bountygate" fallout. New Orleans stumbled to an 0-4 start, which included an embarrassing overtime loss to Kansas City in Week 3 in which the Saints threw away a 24-6 lead. Things have relatively improved over the last month, as the Saints have won two of its last three, but that was topped off by a rout at the hands of New Orleans native Peyton Manning and the Broncos in last Sunday's 34-14 Denver victory.
The Eagles are trying to dig out of a hole, even though a victory would get Andy Reid's team back to .500. Philadelphia is coming off three consecutive defeats, including an ugly 30-17 home loss to Atlanta, in which the Eagles fell behind, 24-7 at the half. The offense is coming apart at the seams, as the Eagles have been outgained in three straight games, while Vick is throwing an interception for every touchdown (8/8). The Eagles have cashed just two of seven times this season, but one of those covers came as a road underdog at Pittsburgh in a 14-13 loss back in Week 5.
New Orleans won and covered all nine games at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome last season, but the lone victory this season came in Week 5 against San Diego. The Saints needed to rally from a 10-point deficit in the third quarter, as Drew Brees burned his former team for four touchdowns. Since 2008, New Orleans owns a strong 14-3 ATS record as a home favorite of less than seven points, as the two earlier non-covers against Washington and Kansas City came when laying at least 8 ˝ points.
Philadelphia is visiting the Big Easy for the first time since December 2007, a 38-23 victory over New Orleans as three-point 'dogs. The Saints picked up revenge against the Eagles in the most recent meeting in Philadelphia, a 48-22 blowout in Week 2 of 2009, as Brees tossed three touchdowns in the win.
New Orleans is playing under the Monday night lights for the first time since blowing out Atlanta in Week 16 of last season, 45-16. The Saints have won five straight Monday night contests at the Superdome dating back to 2008, while covering four times in this span. The Eagles are also making their 2012 Monday debut, as Philadelphia has cashed its last four road games under the Monday night lights since 2006.
One thing to keep an eye for the Eagles is the 5-1 ATS record as a road underdog since 2010, including four outright victories. If the Eagles want to get back in the playoff picture, the next three weeks are crucial for tiebreaker purposes. After Monday's game (a loss could put a fork in New Orleans), the Eagles play two divisional opponents as the Cowboys invade Philadelphia, followed by a trip to Washington. In fact, the Eagles play only one non-conference team the rest of the way (Bengals in Week 15).
The Saints don't have it easy at home coming up, with the Falcons and 49ers coming to Louisiana over the next month, while New Orleans has to travel to Oakland in Week 11. Monday's game will feature the seventh time the Saints have a total of at least 50, hitting the 'over' four of the first six opportunities in this situation.
New Orleans is listed as three-point home favorites on Monday, as the total is set between 51 ˝ and 52 at most books. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST and can be seen nationally on ESPN.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-06-12 12:31 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
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Books gets destroyed
November 5, 2012
Las Vegas sports books just endured one of the roughest weekends ever in state history. Official record aren’t kept by the Nevada Gaming Control Board on daily numbers like they do for the Super Bowl, but from talking with several directors around town and having a personal understanding of what was one of the worst days ever in Las Vegas was, I feel comfortable in estimating that Nevada sports books lost anywhere from $7-to-9 million over the weekend, and that could be a low estimate.
No sports book director gave me any indication or hint of their actual numbers, nor did I ask, because it isn’t appropriate to put any of them in position to discuss their company funds. But after seeing the results of the weekend, which became an on-going parlay heaven for bettors and hearing the tone deflection in the directors voices after talking with them on a weekly basis, this was no ordinary weekend, but one that had been brewing for sometime.
“This was the perfect storm that has been brewing for the entire season,” said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne. “It’s a disaster.”
A perfect storm indeed, where negative energy meets positive energy and explodes. The negative energy -- for the bettors -- has been the underdogs hitting at 61 percent over the season in the NFL, which has caused most public bettors -- who love betting the favorites -- to have a terrible season.
The positive energy is when the favorites finally start hitting. Over the weekend, beginning with Thursday night’s Chargers cover, the key favorites rolled into monster parlay payouts where six, seven, and eight teamers were cashing like never seen before. Even 10-team parlays were being cashed out at 800-to-1, odds that a book can never recoup.
“I’ve been here (LVH Super Book) eight-and-a-half years and this is the worst day I’ve had,” said LVH Super Book vice-president Jay Kornegay.
“This could rival won of the worst Sunday's we've ever had since I’ve been running a book,” said Osborne, a 25-year veteran of running books for Michael Gaughan’s properties.
Saturday started out decent for the books, but at the end of the day, college favorites went 32-19-1 against-the-spread. The big bang was the prime time games with LSU, Oregon, and Kansas State covering. The OVER in the Oregon and Kansas State games were almost as popular as the sides, and of course, the majority of the betting public had them all locked together in a parlay. Four-teamers pay 11-to-1, five-teamers pay 20-to-1, and they were popping.
It got even worse when the late Saturday results were posted with UCLA and Oregon State covering. Saturday was a big loser for the books, but the effects of the day wouldn’t be finished because the lingering live games were all going to public favorites on Sunday putting the books in a hole before the day even started.
This is when the big tidal wave starts to take it’s shape and puts the sports book in a position to have to beat down at least half of their big wagered upon games. On Sunday, they didn’t win any of those games.
“If you don’t win the morning games, you can’t recover,“ said Kornegay. “You’re looking at a red number that the afternoon or evening games can’t erase.
“We lost seven of the eight early games, the only game we won on was the Panthers beating the Redskins. It was pretty much Murphy’s law all day.”
The big game that got it all started was the Broncos covering four points at Cincinnati, and then one after another, every game fell the bettors way.
“We had some leftovers from a rough Saturday that spilled over and then our worst case scenario happened in the early games with Denver, Baltimore, and the Lions covering,” said Osborne. “Those three teams were wound together pretty tight on a lot of parlays, and then everything else followed suit with the afternoon games where Seattle was extremely bad, but the Bucs were even worse because it was the last game posted (before the Atlanta game) and everything tied in from the day that was still alive, paid out.”
When the last game is posted, the main screen doesn’t even show the parlay card results which was an entirely different wave of destruction, and perhaps maybe the most destructive.
On the day, the favorites went 8-4 against-the-spread, but even the underdogs that covered were either mixed with public support like the Panthers (+3) and Steelers (+3), or completely one sided, like the Colts (2.5) and the Buccaneers (+1).
“We’re not a big parlay card house, so I guess I feel fortunate that we don’t have that type of liability,” Kornegay said.
The big parlay card houses in town are the local properties, off the strip, who kind of live and die by the sword on a weekly basis. This season, they have been living quite extravagantly thanks to the underdogs, but on Sunday, they gave back a huge chunk of it.
The big blow came when the Falcons kicked a field goal with seconds left to take a six-point lead and cover the four-point spread.
“What was weird was that every game that had the possibility of having a back door cover at the end that might have helped us on a few games, didn’t happen,” Osborne said.
When the books can’t even get a back door cover for help, the kind that kills the small players' six-team parlay on a weekly basis, you know the perfect storm has hit.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-06-12 12:35 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12032
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November Records
November 1, 2012
With trick or treating and NFL underdogs satisfying many a sweet tooth this season, we move on into the second half of the 2012 NFL campaign.
And thanks to our database, we learn how teams have fared during the month of November in five key situational roles, namely: Favorites, Dogs, Home, Away and in Division.
Before carving up that Thanksgiving Day turkey, be sure to check out this list of the appetizing team results. Listed below are the good, bad and ugly team trends in games played in the NFL during November since 1990. Enjoy the games.
HOME TEAMS
-- Good: If you go through many Twitter pages or sports forums, you will find Tony Romo has a host of nicknames, some that cannot be posted here. Yet despite this, Romo and his predecessors at quarterback have been backed by fine defenses this month and are 37-18 ATS when playing in Big D. Dallas will have two chances to improve this record, on Thanksgiving and four days prior.
-- Bad: Having won a couple Super Bowls in the past several years, one would not use the word like 'mediocre' to describe the New York Giants very often, yet that is precisely what the G-Men are at home this month. Looking back, they have left their football-betting backers with a 13-27 ATS mark. They will have Pittsburgh the first Sunday of the month and a Sunday night affair with Green Bay to close November in New Jersey.
Another NFL team not synonymous with success is St. Louis, who last had a winning season in 2003. The Rams hired Jeff Fisher to take them out of this desolate existence and though general improvement has been witnessed, there is a long way to go. St. Louis is a dreadful 14-33 ATS at home this month and thanks to a bye week, only has one game at the E. J. Dome on November 18.
-- Keep an eye on: Buffalo and Oakland have been failures for years, yet for some reason they go in opposite directions in November playing on their own field. The Bills are a sharp 27-16 ATS, as the bone-chilling colds starts to set in, while the Raiders "Commit to Excellence" are just words, not to be taken seriously because of their 15-25 ATS record.
AWAY TEAMS
-- Keep an eye on: Over the last decade or more, when you hear the names Atlanta, San Diego and Detroit for NFL football, what are they associated with, success or failure? The Falcons and Chargers certainly fit the former and it shows in how they play on the road with Atlanta 26-15 ATS and San Diego 25-15 against the spread.
Toss out Detroit's 2011 campaign and the Lions and they have made more bad choices than the Octomom. Send Detroit out of MoTown and they are 13-25 ATS.
FAVORITES
-- Bad: Robert Griffin III has already done special things in a Redskins uniform, even guiding his team to home victories, something they have not been very good at recently. (36-44 SU, 2002-11) With RG3 doing his part fueled by Subway, maybe he takes the whole team over to the sub shop when they are in the role of favorite, since the Skins are 10-25 ATS. - which ties nicely into the lack of success starting rookie QB's have had in the league this season. This month, Washington will be giving points to Carolina and possibly to Philadelphia on November 18.
-- Keep an eye on: Previously, Dallas has been mentioned as rock solid home wager and naturally this has often come in the role as the favorite, doling out points. With this being true, the Cowboys are winners when passing points to the competition and are 39-20 versus the oddsmakers.
The Romeo Crennel era in Kansas City is starting to look it might last as long as the Rick Perry for President campaign. Seemingly, every mistake the Chiefs make is multiplied, giving credence to their failures and supporting their 10-25 ATS record. K.C. might be favored one time when the Bengals visit them.
DOGS
-- Keep an eye on: Two teams from the same division are polar opposites when it comes to how they perform when on the receiving end of catching linemakers' digits. Chicago is a sparkling 34-21 ATS as an underdog and is presumed to be in this role at San Francisco on a Monday night.
Detroit on the other hand is a feeble 22-38 ATS as a dastardly dog. Precisely how often oddsmakers will place them in this position is difficult to say with a road game in Minnesota and Ford Field affairs with Green Bay (Nov.18) and Houston on Thanksgiving.
DIVISION
-- Good: In the past, New Orleans has been cleaning up on the NFC South in the 11th month of the year, but this year's team and situation is completely different. The Saints have no defense, no running game and no real head coach, which makes it hard to conceive they will improve upon their 26-13 ATS record vs. division partners. Let's see how they perform in the bayou when Atlanta pays a visit on November 11.
-- Keep an eye on: For those betting on football that like numbers and appreciate coincidence, this is for you. Both Buffalo and Washington are 15-25 ATS against division opposition the past 21 years. This November, each will play one home and road game in their division and each circumstance has the Bills and Redskins playing them with four days between games. Weird!
Below is a list of each team with their November (SU/ATS) records from last season, 2008-2010, and their schedule for the month.
2012 NOVEMBER BREAKDOWN
Category 2011 2008-10 Week
TEAM SU ATS SU ATS 9 10 11 12
ARZ 3-1 3-1 6-8 6-8 @ GB -- @ ATL STL
ATL 3-1 1-2-1 10-4 10-4 DAL @ NO ARZ @ TB
BAL 3-1 2-1-1 10-4 8-6 @ CLE OAK @ PIT @ SD
BUF 0-4 1-3 4-9 6-6-1 @ HOU @ NE MIA @ IND
CAR 1-2 1-2 5-8 6-7 @ WSH DEN TB @ PHI
CHI 3-1 3-1 7-7 5-8-1 @ TEN HOU @ SF MIN
CIN 2-2 1-2-1 4-8 5-7 DEN NYG @ KC OAK
CLE 1-3 2-2 3-10 4-8-1 BAL -- @ DAL PIT
DAL 4-0 1-3 9-4 9-4 @ ATL @ PHI CLE WSH
DEN 4-0 4-0 5-8 5-8 @ CIN @ CAR SD @ KC
DET 1-2 1-2 1-13 3-10-1 @ JAX @ MIN GB HOU
GB 4-0 3-1 6-7 7-5-1 ARZ -- @ DET @ NYG
HOU 3-0 3-0 3-10 6-7 @ CHI JAX @ DET @ TEN
IND 0-3 0-3 12-3 7-6-2 MIA @ JAX @ NE BUF
JAX 1-2 1-2 6-6 5-7 DET IND @ HOU TEN
KC 0-4 1-3 5-7 8-4 @ SD @ PIT CIN DEN
MIA 3-1 4-0 9-5 6-8 @ IND TEN @ BUF SEA
MIN 0-3 0-2-1 10-3 7-5-1 @ SEA DET -- @ CHI
NE 3-1 3-1 7-6 6-6-1 -- BUF IND @ NYJ
NO 3-0 3-0 10-2 7-5 PHI ATL @ OAK SF
NYG 1-3 1-3 8-5 6-7 PIT @ CIN -- GB
NYJ 2-2 1-3 9-4 7-6 -- @ SEA @ STL NE
OAK 3-1 3-1 3-9 5-7 TB @ BAL NO @ CIN
PHI 1-3 1-3 8-6 6-8 @ NO DAL @ WSH CAR
PIT 2-1 1-2 8-5 7-6 @ NYG KC BAL @ CLE
SD 0-4 0-4 9-3 8-4 KC @ TB @ DEN BAL
SF 3-1 3-1 6-6 7-4-1 -- STL CHI @ NO
SEA 2-2 3-1 3-11 4-9-1 MIN NYJ -- @ MIA
STL 1-3 1-3 2-10 6-6 -- @ SF NYJ @ ARZ
TB 0-4 1-3 7-4 9-3 @ OAK SD @ CAR ATL
TEN 2-2 3-1 9-4 7-6 CHI @ MIA -- @ JAX
WSH 1-3 2-2 3-8 4-6-1 CAR -- PHI @ DAL
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-06-12 12:37 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12032
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NFL odds: Week 10 opening line report
Football bettors can usually draw a line through the schedule to indicate the exact week when Super Bowl contenders pull away from the Super Bowl pretenders. And Week 10 may be that week.
There are three double-digit spreads on the board in early November, with Buffalo getting 11 points in New England, St. Louis set as an 11-point pup in San Francisco, and Pittsburgh handing lowly Kansas City 11.5 points on Monday Night Football.
“The midway part of the season is when the teams start separating,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service, The Sports Club, told Covers. “The good teams win, the bad teams lose, and that’s how the public bets them.”
Those double-digit spreads prove a certain divide between the top and bottom of the league. New England, San Francisco and Pittsburgh have a combined 16-8 record while their three opponents boast a collective 7-17 SU mark.
And while those spreads are some of the highest NFL gamblers have dealt with this season, Korner says those early lines aren’t high enough. His service sent out suggested spreads of 13 points for all three of those contests.
“Why wouldn’t you be high on these games if you were a sportsbook?,” Korner says. “Why would you want to have to cheer for the underdog come Sunday? I can explain why our lines are so high on these games. I can’t give any reasons to go lower.”
Houston Texans at Chicago Bears (-1, 41.5)
This is the main event of Week 10’s Sunday slate, pitting two 7-1 heavyweights against each other in the Windy City.
But while this Sunday Night Football slugfest has all the makings of a classic bout, Korner says it may be a bit overhyped. A win Sunday night would be a nice feather in the cap for either team, but with this being a non-conference contest between two division leaders, it probably won’t have much say in the grand scheme of things.
“It doesn’t really mean much. There isn’t anything at stake,” he says. “Although, it’s going to be a good game, it might be just that – a good game – and nothing else.”
Korner says his team of oddmakers brought spreads between a pick and Chicago -3 to the table, eventually sending out a suggested spread of Bears -2.5. Most online shops opened this game at -1 with some moving to -1.5.
San Diego Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 48)
This AFC-versus-NFC matchup is one of the toughest spreads to get a grip on during Week 10.
The Chargers snapped a three-game losing streak against the Chiefs Thursday, thanks to a 21-point fourth quarter explosion. The Bucs continued their solid play, picking up their second straight “W” in a shootout with Oakland.
The Sports Club sent out a suggested spread of Tampa Bay -1.5 and plenty of online books opened with similar odds. But instant action on the Buccaneers took the spread all the way to the key number of -3.
“San Diego is notorious for being a second-half team,” says Korner. “They start slow and then come on strong.”
“This is a pretty close game, not as high profile as some others and with two teams looking towards the playoffs,” he adds. “But it will not land on three, I can guarantee that.”
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-09-12 12:11 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12032
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NFL
Long Sheet
Week 10
Thursday, November 8
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INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 3) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 7) - 11/8/2012, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 4-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 4-1 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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Sunday, November 11
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BUFFALO (3 - 5) at NEW ENGLAND (5 - 3) - 11/11/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 149-110 ATS (+28.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NY GIANTS (6 - 3) at CINCINNATI (3 - 5) - 11/11/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 28-52 ATS (-29.2 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 26-47 ATS (-25.7 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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SAN DIEGO (4 - 4) at TAMPA BAY (4 - 4) - 11/11/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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DENVER (5 - 3) at CAROLINA (2 - 6) - 11/11/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 42-68 ATS (-32.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
DENVER is 27-47 ATS (-24.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
CAROLINA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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TENNESSEE (3 - 6) at MIAMI (4 - 4) - 11/11/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 47-70 ATS (-30.0 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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OAKLAND (3 - 5) at BALTIMORE (6 - 2) - 11/11/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games against AFC North division opponents since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home games against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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ATLANTA (8 - 0) at NEW ORLEANS (3 - 5) - 11/11/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 22-45 ATS (-27.5 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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DETROIT (4 - 4) at MINNESOTA (5 - 4) - 11/11/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
DETROIT is 32-52 ATS (-25.2 Units) in November games since 1992.
DETROIT is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
DETROIT is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 3-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NY JETS (3 - 5) at SEATTLE (5 - 4) - 11/11/2012, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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DALLAS (3 - 5) at PHILADELPHIA (3 - 5) - 11/11/2012, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
DALLAS is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 148-111 ATS (+25.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in home games after playing on Monday night football since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ST LOUIS (3 - 5) at SAN FRANCISCO (6 - 2) - 11/11/2012, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 123-160 ATS (-53.0 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 89-125 ATS (-48.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 34-55 ATS (-26.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 25-42 ATS (-21.2 Units) in November games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 44-68 ATS (-30.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 123-160 ATS (-53.0 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 64-90 ATS (-35.0 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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HOUSTON (7 - 1) at CHICAGO (7 - 1) - 11/11/2012, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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Monday, November 12
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KANSAS CITY (1 - 7) at PITTSBURGH (5 - 3) - 11/12/2012, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-09-12 12:16 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12032
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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 10
Colts (5-3) @ Jaguars (1-7)—Indy playing inspired football for disabled coach Pagano (leukemia) who visited team Sunday, winning four of last five games, last three all by 4 or less points, or in OT; they’ve lost last two visits here, 31-28/19-13- last year was first time Jags ever swept season series. Series was split in five of last six years. Indy allowed 41-22-35 points in its losses; they’re 4-0 allowing less than 22 points, a figure Jax has yet to hit at home this year. Jags’ only win this year came on 80-yard pass in last 2:00 at Indy, after Colts had just grabbed lead; they only had 148 passing yards the whole game. Jax lost five games in row (2-3 vs spread) since- they’re 0-4 at home (0-4 vs spread) losing by average score of 32-6. Home underdogs are 6-9 vs spread in divisional games so far this season. Three of last four Jaguar games went over total; under is 4-2-1 in Colts’ last seven games.
Bills (3-5) @ Patriots (5-3)—If you go back a decade, average score of second Bill-Patriot game each year has been 32-8 Pats; average score in first meetings, 28-20. Patriots trailed first meeting 14-7 at half in Buffalo, then exploded in second half for 52-28 win, their 22nd in last 24 series games; Bills lost last eight visits here, with five of last seven by 10 or less points. Buffalo lost four of its last five games; only one of its five losses was by less than 12 points- they’re 1-4 as underdogs this year, 1-3 on road. NE won four of last five games, forcing 15 turnovers (+9) in those games, after forcing only five in first three; they’re 1-2 as home favorites. In its last four wins, Patriots ran ball for 131+ yards; Bills allowed an average of 211 rushing yards in their last five games. Home favorites are 7-14 vs spread in divisional games this season. Last six Patriot games all went over the total.
Giants (6-3) @ Bengals (3-5)—Cincy lost to Peyton Manning last week; younger brother Eli visits here, in series where home team is 8-0, with Giants losing all five visits to Cincinnati (four of five losses by 5 or less points). Bengals lost last four games (0-4 vs spread), with three of the four at home, allowing 34-24-31 points in last three games; they’re 2-3 as underdogs, 0-2 at home. Last three Giant games were all decided by 5 or less points; they’re 2-2 on road (4-0 vs spread), 2-4 vs spread as favorites, 1-0 on road. Underdogs covered seven of their nine games this year. Red flag for NJ: they’ve completed only 25 of 53 passes in last two games, scoring two TDs on 21 drives- they had defensive TD in each game. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 3-11 against spread, 1-4 on road; AFC North underdogs are 5-6, 2-2 at home. Three of four Giant road games stayed under the total.
Chargers (4-4) @ Bucs (4-4)— Being 4-4 depends on your outlook; Tampa fans are thrilled to be .500 after losing last 10 games LY; some Charger fans are calling for Norv Turner’s head because he’s 4-4. Bucs’ WR Vincent Jackson left SD for Tampa and has invigorated Tampa passing game that averaged 6.9+ yards/attempt in each of last five games, during which time they averaged 33.2 ppg (20 TD’s on 59 drives, 31 plays of 20+ yards). Bolts had three extra days after Thursday night win that snapped three-game; they’re 2-2 on road, but lost at Saints/Browns in last two- they’re 0-1 as dogs this year. San Diego won eight of nine series games, including all five played here, but Bucs won their only Super Bowl on Chargers’ home field. NFC South home favorites are 5-6 vs spread outside their division; AFC West road underdogs are 2-5. Four of last five Charger games, and last five Tampa Bay games all went over the total.
Broncos (5-3) @ Panthers (2-6)—John Fox returns to Charlotte to coach against team that (stupidly) let him walk two years ago, because they didn’t want to pay him what he’s worth; Denver is on roll, winning/covering last three games, scoring 35-34-31 points. Broncos scored 31+ points in all five wins, 21-25-21 in losses. Carolina lost five of last six games, but held three of last four opponents under 20 points; they’re 0-4 vs spread when scoring 14 or less points, 4-0 when they score 21+. Panthers lost last three home games, scoring average of just 11 ppg (3 TD’s on 30 drives). Home side won all three games in series; Broncos lost only visit here, 30-10 four years ago. AFC west non-divisional favorites are 4-5 vs spread, 1-2 on road; NFC South teams are 16-8 vs spread outside their division, 9-2 as underdogs, 0-1 at home. Three of last four Bronco games went over; three of last four Panther games stayed under.
Titans (3-6) @ Dolphins (4-4)—You’ll get spirited effort from Tennessee here after 51-20 home debacle vs Bears last week, after which octogenarian owner Bud Adams basically threatened everyone in organization; five of Titans’ six losses are by 23 points- they’re 1-3 on road, pulling out 35-34 win at Buffalo in last road trip, but losing first three by 28-24-23 points (1-3 as road dog). Five of well-coached Dolphins’ last six games were decided by 4 or less points; Fish are 0-2 as favorites this year (both games were decided by 3 points) as underdogs covered six of their eight games, including last five. After running ball for 263-185 yards in Weeks 2-3, Dolphins averaged just 70.8 yards on ground over last five games. Miami won eight of last 11, three of last four series games; Titans lost six of last seven visits here, dropping last three by 14-3-12 points. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 6-5, 3-3 at home; AFC South underdogs are 9-8, 4-4 on road. Under is 3-0-1 in last four Miami games.
Raiders (3-5) @ Ravens (6-2)—Baltimore won six of seven series games, but teams haven’t met since ’09; Raiders are 0-4 here, losing 28-6/29-10 in last two visits, last of which was in ’08. Oakland got run over last week by Bucs’ Martin, who had 265 yards on ground before giving few away on kneeldowns in last minute; they’re 1-3 on road, covering last two, but losing three of four, with losses by 22-31-3 points, and only win at 1-7 Chiefs.. Ravens’ 137 rushing yards last week was season high; they’re 4-0 at home, but 1-3 as home favorites, winning by 31-1-7-2 points at home. Baltimore allowed 24-43 points in its two losses; they had 26 plays of 20+ yards in first four games, only 11 in last four- they need more to protect injury-riddled defense. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 2-8 vs spread, 2-4 at home; AFC West underdogs are 4-7, 2-5 on road. Three of four Raven home games, five of last seven Oakland games went over the total.
Falcons (8-0) @ Saints (3-5)—New Orleans won 10 of last 12 games in one of NFL’s best rivalries (teams came into NFL a year apart), with five of last seven games decided by 4 or less points; Atlanta lost five of last six visits here, but are 8-0 this year, allowing only 15.3 ppg in four road wins (all vs teams with .500 or worse records, but Saints are 3-5). Saints won three of last four games, but wasn’t impressed by Monday night win over freefalling Eagles; loss of multi-purpose back Sproles (hand) hampers their quick passes out of backfield. Atlanta scored 17 TD’s on 54 drives in first five games, only five on 30 in last three, but they keep winning. Saints are 3-1 when they score 28+ points, 0-4 when they don’t; Falcons allowed 16.8 ppg in last four games; they’ve allowed more than 24 points once (Carolina) this year. Underdogs covered three of first four NFC South divisional games this year. Three of last four Falcon games stayed under the total.
Lions (4-4) @ Vikings (4-5)—Minnesota was outgained 341-227, didn’t score offensive TD, but had two TD’s on special teams in 20-13 (+3.5) win at Detroit in Week 4, just second win in last five games vs Lions, after they won 21 of previous 24 series games. Detroit’s 26-23 OT win here LY was their first in last 14 visits here; they’re 3-1 since bye, scoring 8 TD’s on 17 drives in last two games, with six of eight TD drives 80+ yards. Lions are 4-1 when they score 26+ points, 0-3 when they don’t; Vikings allowed 29.5 ppg in last four games, after giving up 15.8 in first five. Minnesota QB Ponder looked lost at Seattle last week, when Vikes lost by 10 despite running ball for 243 yards; Ponder’s averaged 2.2/6.0/1.7 ypa in last three games. Detroit has run ball for 117.5 ypg since the bye, after averaging 90.3 in first four games, so they’re making effort to take heat off Stafford by running ball better. Three of last four games for both sides went over the total.
Jets (3-5) @ Seahawks (5-4)—Much like Giants last week, Jet players have had to deal with hurricane-related issues to their homes, so long road trip west could help them re-focus; they’ve won eight of last ten series games, after losing first seven games with Seattle- they’re 3-4 in Pacific Northwest. Seattle much better team at home (4-0, scoring 23.8 ppg) with wins over Packers/Patriots; speedy WRs Tate/Rice allowed Wilson to become more dangerous improvising out of pocket. Curious to see how Jets change approach after getting drilled 30-9 by Miami in last pre-bye game, when normally reliable special teams fell apart in first quarter. NFC West teams are 13-10 vs spread in non-divisional games, 5-5 as favorites, 4-4 at home; AFC East teams are 12-10 vs spread, 7-6 on road, 4-4 as road dogs. Three of last four Seattle games went over total. Many moons ago, Pete Carroll was once HC of the Jets.
Cowboys (3-5) @ Eagles (3-5)—Do struggling teams have home advantage? Home folks ain’t happy with Iggles, who allowed Vick to get sacked seven times in 28-13 loss to Saints Monday night—could be that Reid’s long (and largely successful) run as Eagles’ coach is nearing an end, since Philly lost last three games, allowing 26-30-28 points- three of their four home games have been decided by 3 or less points, and now they face hated Pokes on short work week. Dallas lost four of last five games, with last three losses all by 6 or less points; they’ve run ball for just 169 yards on 66 carries (2.56 per carry) in last three games. Philly scored 20+ points in only two games this year, and lost both of those. Home teams are 0-4 vs spread (2-2 SU) in NFC East divisional games this season. Four of five Dallas road games stayed under total; three of four Eagle home games went over. Iggles won three of last four series games, but Dallas is 4-3 in last seven visits here.
Rams (3-5) @ 49ers (6-2)—Niners are bully team, allowing 6 or less points in four of last five games, but they’re just 2-2 when they allow more than 6 points; curious to see if Rams’ patchwork OL can give Bradford enough time to move chains with favorite target Amendola back in lineup. SF won seven of last eight series games, winning last four played here by average score of 30-9. St Louis lost last three games, scoring four TD’s on last 27 drives; they’re 2-2 as road underdogs, but haven’t forced a turnover in last three games (-4) after forcing nine (+2) in first five games. Niners scored 13-3 points in their two losses, running ball for just 89-80 yards; they’re 6-0 when they don’t lose the turnover battle, and are 2-2 as home favorites, with home wins by 8-4-27 points and a loss to the Giants. Underdogs covered four of first five NFC West divisional games. Six of last seven 49er games stayed under the total.
Texans (7-1) @ Bears (7-1)—Possible Super Bowl preview with both teams’ only loss to Green Bay; Bears are setting unreal pace of forcing turnovers, with 28 in eight games; Chicago is already +16 in turnover ratio halfway through season- they’ve scored eight TD’s on defense/special teams in last six games, masking an offense with a suspect offensive line. Houston is underdog for first time this year- they’re 3-0 on road, with wins at Broncos/Jets/Jags. Texans turned ball over six times (-6) in only loss; they only have three other turnovers all season (+5 for year). Houston won both series meetings, 24-5 here in 2004, 31-24 at home four years ago. NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 6-7 vs spread; AFC South road underdogs are 4-4. Four of last six Houston games, four of last five Bear games went over the total. NFC teams have turned table on AFC this year, with a xx-xx advantage in interconference games so far.
Chiefs (1-7) @ Steelers (5-3)—Pittsburgh OC Haley was dumped as Chiefs’ HC during last season; hard feelings exist between him and KC front office. KC coach Crennel hired former Oklahoma HC Gibbs to be new DC during bye week, with Crennel becoming more of overseer of program; Chiefs lost last five games (1-4 vs spread), scoring two offensive TD’s on last 42 drives- they still haven’t led any game in regulation this season, and were down 24-6 in only game they’ve won. Steelers won/covered last three games, allowing only four TD’s on 28 drives; they rallied from 10 down in 4th quarter to win in Swamp last week. This is just Chiefs’ second visit to Pittsburgh since ’89; their last was a 45-6 loss in 2006. Steelers won last meeting 13-9 LY at Arrowhead. AFC North teams are 2-8 vs spread as non-divisional favorites, 2-4 at home; AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 4-7, 2-5 on foreign soil. Six of eight Chief games went over total; four of last five Steeler games stayed under.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-09-12 12:18 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12032
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NFL
Week 10
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Thursday Night Football: Colts at Jaguars
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Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3, 42.5)
The Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars were expected to battle it out for the AFC South Division basement this season. The Jaguars are holding up their end of the bargain, but thanks to a lot of Luck, Indianapolis has emerged as one of the surprising leaders for the conference's two wild card slots. Rookie Andrew Luck, the top overall pick in April's draft and successor to Peyton Manning, has directed the Colts to three consecutive victories and will vie for a fourth when Indianapolis visits the reeling Jaguars on Thursday night.
Jacksonville has lost five consecutive games and is tied with Kansas City for the league's worst record at 1-7. Playing at EverBank Field has not provided an edge for the Jaguars, who are the league's lowest-scoring team and have lost all four home games this season.
TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network.
LINE: This line has stayed steady at +3 while the total has been up and down but has returned to its opening of 42.5.
WEATHER: The forecast is calling for sunny skies and temperatures in the mid 40s. Winds are expected to blow NNW at 2 mph.
ABOUT THE COLTS (5-3, 5-3 ATS): Fellow rookie Robert Griffin III has garnered much of the early-season publicity, but Luck and the Colts have lost just one since falling at home to Jacksonville on Sept. 23. Luck threw a pair of touchdown passes and set an NFL rookie record by throwing for 433 yards in Sunday's 23-20 victory over the Miami Dolphins. It was his fourth 300-yard game, tying the rookie record held by Manning. The victory came in the first game attended by head coach Chuck Pagano, who left the team late in September to undergo treatment for leukemia. Somewhat overlook has been the performance by Indianapolis' defense, which has allowed an averge of 15.3 points during the three-game winning streak.
ABOUT THE JAGUARS (1-7, 4-4 ATS): After a pair of solid performances in narrow road losses at Oakland and Green Bay, Jacksonville turned in a woeful effort in Sunday's 31-14 loss to Detroit. The Jaguars gave up 21 second-quarter points and held the ball for less than eight minutes while running only 18 plays in the first half - a stat that quarterback Blaine Gabbert termed "pathetic." Jacksonville failed to score until Gabbert threw a pair of fourth-quarter scoring passes with the game well in hand. The Jaguars again will be without star running back Maurice Jones-Drew, who will sit out his third straight game. Jones-Drew led the league with 1,606 yards rushing last season and ran for 177 yards against the Colts in September.
TRENDS:
* Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Jacksonville.
* Road team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Jacksonville is 6-21 in its last 27 games, but three of the wins have come against the Colts.
2. Less than 24 hours after Pagano delivered an emotional postgame speech, his doctor said his leukemia is in remission.
3. The Jaguars have a minus-92 point differential in their four home losses - the worst mark since 2002 among teams that have lost their first four home games.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-09-12 12:21 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12032
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NFL
Week 10
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Tale of the tape: Indianapolis at Jacksonville
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The surging Colts roll into Jacksonville to tackle the downtrodden Jaguars Thursday night. Find out how this AFC South battle breaks down with our tale of the tape.
Offense
The Colts are piling up yardage, but that hasn't exactly translated into a boatload of points in recent weeks. They've averaged over 430 total yards of offense per game on north of six yards per play, but have scored a grand total of only 59 points in their last three games. Rookie QB Andrew Luck has received heaps of praise following his 433-yard passing day against the Dolphins, but has topped 300 yards only once in three road games this season, posting a less than impressive 2:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Jacksonville has scored more than 15 points only once in its last five contests and has been outgained in terms of total yardage in seven of eight games so far this season. Running back Maurice Jones-Drew remains sidelined with a foot injury - bad news for an offense that is averaging just over 250 yards per game. On a brighter note, second-year QB Blaine Gabbert has made positive strides, tossing nine touchdowns compared to only five interceptions. He's found the end zone in seven of eight games, but has thrown multiple TDs only twice.
Edge: Indianapolis
Defense
Indianapolis' defense continues to improve, having allowed only 46 points combined over its last three games. A word of warning though. Those three contests have come against pedestrian offenses in the Browns, Titans, and Dolphins. Still, it's a step in the right direction after getting torched for more than 20 points in four of the first five games this season. The return of LB Pat Angerer from injury has solidified the linebacking corps, but there are concerns with CB Vontae Davis sidelined and DE Robert Mathis questionable to play.
The Jags defense has been on the field an awful lot this season, and we've seen signs of this unit tiring in recent weeks. Jacksonville has allowed at least 24 points in four consecutive games, giving up over 30 twice during that stretch. Home cooking hasn't helped, as the Jags are allowing a whopping 432 total yards per game at EverBank Field. They've forced just one turnover in their last two games after recording three in an overtime loss to the Raiders on October 21.
Edge: Indianapolis
Special teams
Indy hasn't made much noise with its return game, falling below the league average in both punt and kick return yardage. Veteran kicker Adam Vinatieri has struggled as well, connecting on only 16 of 22 field-goal attempts. With that being said, he did make good on a 43-yard game-winner against Miami this past Sunday. He also misfired on a pair of kicks in the same game.
Jacksonville has been even worse than Indianapolis when it comes to returning kicks. Kicker Josh Scobee gives the Jags a considerable edge, however, as he's a perfect 14 for 14 on field-goal attempts this season. The Jags have also been terrific defending punt returns, holding the opposition to an average of only seven yards.
Edge: Jacksonville
Word on the street
“You can’t say enough good things about him, from him as a human being to him as a football player to him as a teammate. He’s the kind of guy you really want your kids to grow up and become. He’s a professional, he does it with class and he’ll be a good one for years to come.” -- Colts DE Fili Moala giving high praise to rookie QB Andrew Luck.
“I’m disappointed that we are where we’re at. I know the players are. I certainly know the fans are. I just want them to know how they feel, we feel the same way. Everybody in that locker room feels the same way. We’re mad, too, very disappointed we’re in this position." -- Jaguars head coach Mike Mularkey speaking about the team's 1-7 start to the season.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-09-12 12:22 AM |
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