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CNOTES
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Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12033
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Chiefs at Chargers
November 1, 2012
When the NFL created its Thursday night schedule, it hoped to avoid matchups between teams with nine combined losses in a row. Nevertheless, that’s what we have this week when San Diego takes on Kansas City in Southern California.
Fortunately for the Chargers, they play in the AFC West and are only one game behind division-leading Denver. But Norv Turner’s team has dropped three straight and the head coach and General Manager A.J. Smith are on boiling hot seats.
As of Wednesday afternoon, most books were listing the Chargers as eight-point favorites with a total of 42 ½. Gamblers can take the Chiefs on the money line for a plus-290 return (risk $100 to win $290). Then on Thursday morning, the total dipped down to 41 1/2.
Just a few weeks ago, San Diego (3-4 straight up, 3-4 against the spread) went to halftime with a 24-0 lead over Denver and appeared poised to take a two-game lead in the loop.
However, Peyton Manning and the Broncos erupted in the second half and rallied to capture a 35-24 win as one-point road underdogs. San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers threw four interceptions, including one pick-six, and also coughed up a fumble that was returned for a touchdown.
After the Bolts had an open date to stew over allowing the fourth-greatest comeback in NFL regular-season history, they responded with a lethargic effort, losing 7-6 at Cleveland as three-point road ‘chalk.’
Robert Meachem dropped what would’ve been a 51-yard touchdown pass midway through the third quarter. San Diego could muster just a pair of field goals and it hasn’t been in the end zone in six straight quarters.
Rivers completed 18-of-34 passes for 154 yards. Reserve running back Ronnie Brown was his favorite target, hauling in seven receptions for 85 yards. Ryan Mathews rushed for 95 yards on 24 carries.
For the season, Rivers has connected on 64.6 of his throws for 1,646 yards but has a mediocre 10/9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Malcolm Floyd leads the team in receiving with 29 catches for 461 yards and one TD. Perennial Pro-Bowl tight end Antonio Gates has 21 receptions for 238 yards and a pair of scores.
San Diego has been a high-octane offense for many years, but this year it is 25th in the NFL in total offense. The Bolts are averaging only 22 points per game.
San Diego is ranked 10th in the NFL in scoring defense, surrendering only 20.6 PPG.
Kansas City (1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS) has lost four in a row, including last week’s 26-16 loss to Oakland as a one-point home favorite. Veteran QB Brady Quinn sustained a concussion in the first half and was relieved by former starter Matt Cassel.
The Raiders took a two-TD lead midway through the third quarter and cruised to the easy win. Cassel hit Dexter McCluster for a 10-yard scoring strike at garbage time to make the final score look more respectable. The 42 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 42 ½-point total.
Cassel completed 20-of-30 passes for 218 yards with one TD, one interception and one lost fumble. Javier Arenas also coughed up a fumble on a punt return.
Cassel had been benched in favor of Quinn, who was making his second start. The Notre Dame product, who is ‘doubtful’ this week, was ineffective in a 38-10 loss at Tampa Bay.
Cassel also suffered a concussion back in Week 5 during a 9-6 home loss to Baltimore. He has a 6/10 TD-INT ratio.
KC running back Jamaal Charles has rushed for a team-high 595 yards and two touchdowns, but he was given a season-low five carries last week against the Raiders. Charles is averaging 5.0 yards per carry.
Dwayne Bowe is the Chiefs’ best down-the-field threat. The former star at LSU has made 37 catches for 492 yards and three TDs.
Kansas City starting defensive lineman Glenn Dorsey has missed four straight games and he’s listed as ‘questionable’ this week.
For the Chargers, WR Vincent Brown remains ‘out’ and WR Eddie Royal is ‘questionable.’
The ‘over’ is 4-3 overall for San Diego, 2-1 in its home games. The ‘over’ is also 4-3 overall for KC, 2-1 in its road assignments.
The NFL Network will have the telecast at 8:25 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Once again, the highest total of the week involves the Saints. They have a 52 ½-point tally for their home game vs. the Eagles on Monday Night Football. As of Wednesday, New Orleans was favored by three (with juice) or 3 ½. After a few days of uncertainty, Andy Reid announced Wednesday that he was sticking with Michael Vick as his starting QB.
--Philadelphia has an NFL-worst 1-5-1 spread record.
--The NFL’s top ATS marks belong to the Falcons, Bucs and Texans, all of whom are 5-2 versus the number.
--The ‘under’ is an NFL-best 7-1 in Arizona games this year.
--The ‘over’ is an NFL-best 6-2 in New England games. After a pair of ‘unders’ to start the season, the ‘over’ has hit in six straight for the Patriots. They have an open date this week.
--Atlanta will take on Dallas in Sunday’s prime-time affair as a four-point ‘chalk.’ The unbeaten Falcons are 18-9-1 ATS as home favorites during Mike Smith’s five-year tenure.
--After throwing only 13 interceptions as a rookie, Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton has already been intercepted 10 times this year. That’s one of the main reasons why the Bengals have lost three in a row going into Sunday’s game vs. Denver. On Wednesday, Cincy head coach Marvin Lewis called out Dalton and LB Rey Maualuga to show more leadership. The Broncos are four-point road favorites.
--In response to rumors this week that the Jags might inquire about the services of Tim Tebow in a trade with the Jets before the deadline, Blaine Gabbert told the media, “I think we’re pretty satisfied here at QB.”
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-02-12 12:58 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12033
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DD angle leans to KC
October 31, 2012
Kansas City heads to San Diego on Thursday for a divisional battle and the oddsmakers listed the visitors as eight-point underdogs, deservingly so.
It’s certainly hard to make a case for the Chiefs, who have dropped four straight. Plus the team is 1-2 both straight up and against the spread on the road, the setbacks coming by 18 and 28 points.
Despite the bad, there might be some good with Kansas City and the situation they face tonight. It’s understood that double-digit losses in the NFL do happen.
The angle that we bring to your attention is teams playing off double-digit losses in back-to-back weeks. The obvious notion is to continue to fade these bad teams but if you did that this season, you’d be 0-3 both straight up and against the spread.
Kansas City
Week 1 – Lost to Atlanta (24-40)
Week 2 – Lost at Buffalo (17-35)
Week 3 – Won at New Orleans (27-24) – Chiefs (+9, +310)
Tennessee
Week 1 – Lost to New England (13-34)
Week 2 – Lost at San Diego (10-38)
Week 3 – Won vs. Detroit (44-41) – Titans (+4, +180)
Tennessee
Week 4 – Lost at Houston (14-38)
Week 5 – Lost at Minnesota (7-30)
Week 6 – Won vs. Pittsburgh (26-23) – Titans (+6, +220)
Kansas City
Week 6 – Lost at Tampa Bay (10-38)
Week 7 – BYE
Week 8 – Lost vs. Kansas City (16-26)
Week 9 – TBD at San Diego
As you can see in the above notes, the trend is in play tonight for Kansas City.
Will it cash again? Well, the Chiefs aren’t a very good football team and they have lost their past four trips to San Diego, two of them by double digits as well. The Chargers are 1-2 both SU and ATS at home this season.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-02-12 12:58 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12033
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NFL odds: Week 9 opening line report
We usually save our “Lines that make you go hmmm…” for later in the week, but Week 9’s Monday night matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints has everyone – from books to bettors – scratching their heads.
“This is a really tough game,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, told Covers. “The initial perception is that this is going to be a really good game, exciting with lots of scoring. But, in reality, it’s looking like a 17-14 game.”
Korner’s crew of oddsmakers sent out a suggested spread of Saints -5. Online books opened the game as low as New Orleans -3. Regardless of the opening line, it’s safe to say Week 9’s marquee Monday Night Football game features the two most disappointing teams of the 2012 season.
New Orleans, hindered by all the offseason drama of Bountygate, is 2-5 SU (3-4 ATS) and coming off an embarrassing 34-14 loss to the Denver Broncos Sunday night. The Eagles are also limping into Week 9, falling to 3-4 SU (1-5-1 ATS) after a 30-17 flogging by the undefeated Atlanta Falcons.
“I’m lost on this game,” laughs Korner. “One team will have to win, in that case we’ll go with the home team.”
Korner was baffled by the betting patterns for the Falcons-Eagles game, which saw Philadelphia open as the favorite and draw action throughout the course of the week. He’s even more surprised that many online books have opened this week’s spread as low as a field goal.
Korner admits New Orleans hasn’t performed much better, but the Saints are far from the hot mess that has become the Eagles’ season.
Quarterback Michael Vick continues to limit the offense, which has scored just 17.1 points per game (30th in the NFL). Rumors are picking up momentum that head coach Andy Reid – whose job is on the chopping block - may look to backup QB Nick Foles in an attempt to save the season and his job.
“I think Reid’s time is coming to an end,” says Korner.
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-9.5, 42.5)
By now, we’ve all read the cringe-inducing stats regarding the Chiefs and their futility this season and you could make an argument that Kansas City is the worst NFL team we’ve seen in some time.
The odds for Thursday night’s meeting between the Chiefs and Chargers are teetering on double digits at some markets while others have this standalone game as low as Bolts -8.
Korner says two of his oddsmakers brought spreads of 7.5 to the table while others had it as high as 10. He’s suggesting keeping this number as high as possible and sent out San Diego -9.5, even suggesting a move to -10 or above.
“You don’t want to be cheering for Kansas City come Thursday night,” he says.
Korner is throwing out the Chargers’ 7-6 loss to the Cleveland Browns Sunday, believing the bad weather had a lot to do with San Diego’s lack of offense. Quarterback Philip Rivers went just 18 for 34 and finished with 154 yards and no touchdowns.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants (-3.5, 47)
The Giants escaped a second-half collapse versus the Dallas Cowboys Sunday to improve to 6-2 and now return home to host the Pittsburgh Steelers, who beat up on New York’s NFC East rivals, the Washington Redskins, in Week 8.
Korner sent out the G-Men at -5 while online books are offering the defending champs as low as a field goal. He says people are thinking about New York’s dreadful second half in Dallas and forgetting the one important thing.
“New York won that game,” says Korner. “The Giants just plain win. For them to be 3-point favorites in Dallas, it should warrant them being bigger than 3-point favorites at home to a Pittsburgh team that isn’t the same ole Pittsburgh team.”
“It’s a really good game, and the Giants seem to always win these big games”
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-5, 47.5)
Korner believes football bettors are getting a deal on the Falcons as 5-point favorites, after sending out the lone unblemished squad as touchdown chalk at home on Sunday night.
“This is cheap,” says Korner. “(Atlanta) has firepower, it’s explosive, it’s playing good defense. If they can handle Philly on the road, they can surely handle Dallas at home.”
Korner says a lot of the parlay money for Sunday will be tied into this Sunday nighter, making it one of the deciding games of the Week 9 slate.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-02-12 12:59 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12033
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NFL
Dunkel
Week 9
Kansas City at San Diego
The Chargers look to bounce back from their 7-6 loss to Cleveland last week and build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. San Diego is the pick (-7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Chargers favored by 13. Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-7 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 1
Game 301-302: Kansas City at San Diego (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 120.947; San Diego 134.078
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 13; 39
Vegas Line: San Diego by 7 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-7 1/2); Under
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NFL
Long Sheet
Week 9
Thursday, November 1
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KANSAS CITY (1 - 6) at SAN DIEGO (3 - 4) - 11/1/2012, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 3-2 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NFL
Short Sheet
Week 9
Thursday, November 1, 2012
(TC) Kansas City at San Diego, 8:25 ET NFL
Kansas City: 6-0 Under off a division game
San Diego: 18-7 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points
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NFL
Week 9
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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 1
8:20 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. SAN DIEGO
Kansas City is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing San Diego
San Diego is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 9
Chiefs (1-6) @ Chargers (4-3)—San Diego lost three in row since waxing Chiefs 37-20 (-2.5) at Arrowhead Sept 30, game where Chiefs turned ball over six times (-5), leading to Bolts’ 10-yard edge in average field position. KC has severe QB problems, with Quinn getting knocked goofy Sunday, and Cassel coming back from injury, was tossed around like piñata by Raiders Sunday; Chiefs have yet to lead any game in regulation this year- they trailed 24-6 in only game they won, at Saints. KC lost seven of last nine series games and last four visits here, by 1-29-31-3 points; long travel on short week makes this a tough task, even under normal circumstances. Chargers have only two 2nd half TD’s in last five games; since 2003, they’re 12-8-1 vs spread as divisional home favorite. AFC West home teams are 1-4 vs spread in divisional games. Five of Chiefs’ seven games went over the total.
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NFL
Thursday, November 1
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Tale of the tape: Kansas City at San Diego
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The last-place Kansas City Chiefs head to San Diego for a critical mid-season AFC West showdown with the Chargers Thursday night. Find out how this matchup breaks down with our tale of the tape.
Offense
Lost. That's the word that best describes the Chiefs offense right now. Kansas City has scored a grand total of 32 points over its last three games, losing all three by a combined 41-point margin. The Chiefs have done a terrific job of phasing out their biggest offensive threat, RB Jamaal Charles, as he's carried the ball only 17 times in the last two weeks. The Chiefs’ QB competition is anything but heated, with Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn taking turns stinking it up.
The weather can take some of the blame for the Chargers’ problems on offense last week, but not all of them. Norv Turner has said that he plans on scaling back the offense and that seemed apparent in Cleveland, as the Bolts ran the ball 34 times and dinked and dunked their way to only six points in a losing effort. Quarterback Philip Rivers is in the midst of his worst season to date, throwing for just over 1,600 yards, 10 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Last week's game marked the first time since the season opener that he didn't throw an interception.
Edge: San Diego
Defense
The Chiefs were supposed to be much better defensively this season after a brutal, injury-plagued 2011 campaign, but that hasn't been the case so far. They've given up at least 24 points in six of seven games, allowing over 30 points on four different occasions. Away from home, they've been torched for a whopping 7.1 yards per play. In last week's 10-point loss to the Raiders, Kansas City failed to record a single sack but did hold Carson Palmer to just 14 completions on 28 pass attempts.
San Diego's defense got off to a terrific start, holding its first two opponents to just 24 points combined. It's been all downhill from there, however, as the Chargers have given up at least 20 points in four of their last five contests. They did limit the Browns to only seven points last week, but Cleveland went the ultra-conservative route after scoring an early touchdown and given the poor weather conditions. San Diego is averaging less than a sack per game at home this season.
Edge: San Diego
Special teams
With their offense struggling, the Chiefs would love to get a boost from their special teams Thursday night. They've been solid returning punts, averaging over 12 yards per return, but fall just under the league average in terms of kick return yardage, averaging 22.5 ypr. They've yet to notch a return touchdown but have given up one. Field goal kicker Ryan Succop has been perfect when called upon, going 8 for 8 on field goal attempts.
The Chargers continue to give Eric Weddle punt returning duty, even though he's given them little to no production in that department. Perhaps he'll find some room to run against a Chiefs team that is allowing over 14 yards per punt return. San Diego has been slightly better returning kickoffs, but is missing the presence of Eddie Royal. Nick Novak has been an adequate replacement for Nate Kaeding, making good on 7 of 8 field goal attempts over the last four games.
Edge: Chiefs
Word on the street
"The lead, it's very important, especially because we've never had a lead this year. It would be very important to start off a game and especially good since we're playing on Thursday night on national TV." -- Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles on the fact the team hasn't held a lead this season.
“You’re coaching on a week-to-week basis. I’m coaching to do the best job I can to get our team ready to play Kansas City. All those other conversations, they’re going to take place. You know they’re going to take place.” - Chargers head coach Norv Turner when asked about his job security.
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NFL
Thursday, November 1
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Thursday Night Football: Chiefs at Chargers
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Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-9.5, 42.5)
Two struggling AFC West teams attempt to end losing streaks as the Kansas City Chiefs and San Diego Chargers kick off Week 9 on Thursday night. Kansas City suffered its fourth straight loss Sunday, when it dropped a 26-16 decision to the Oakland Raiders. The Chiefs, who never led in the contest, erased a 6-0 deficit but fell behind for good in the final minute of the second quarter and went on to lose at home to the Raiders for the sixth consecutive time.
San Diego dropped its third straight on Sunday, losing a 7-6 decision at Cleveland. The Chargers outgained the Browns with 265 total yards but were unable to find the end zone, settling for a pair of field goals by Nick Novak. The Chargers won the first battle between the division rivals on Sept. 30, posting a 37-20 triumph at Kansas City as they capitalized on six turnovers and scored 27 points in the first half.
TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network.
LINE: The Chargers opened as high as -10 and have been bet down as low as -7.5 at some online books. The total has dropped from 44 to 42.5 points.
WEATHER: The forecast is calling for partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-60s. Winds are expected to blow WNW at 6 mph.
ABOUT THE CHIEFS (1-6, 2-5 ATS): Kansas City's offense has struggled mightily as it has found the end zone just once over its last three games. After posting only two field goals in a home loss to Baltimore on Oct. 7, the Chiefs recorded their only touchdown in a setback at Tampa Bay on Oct. 14 on a fumble return following a blocked punt. They nearly were held without an offensive TD by Oakland, but Matt Cassel hit Dexter McCluster with a 10-yard scoring strike with just under 2 1/2 minutes remaining in the game. Cassel will return to the starting lineup Thursday in favor of Brady Quinn, who was ruled out of the game after sustaining a concussion against the Raiders. LB Derrick Johnson is looking to make his 101st career start.
ABOUT THE CHARGERS (3-4, 3-4 ATS): KR Richard Goodman's day did not last long Sunday as he injured his hamstring during his 21-yard return on the opening kickoff and did not return. Goodman has averaged 27.6 yards on 18 kickoff returns this season. QB Philip Rivers made his 103rd consecutive start. It is the second-longest streak among active quarterbacks behind the 127-game run by Eli Manning of the New York Giants. RB Ryan Mathews nearly posted his first 100-yard game of the season Sunday, falling five yards short. Mathews had a season-high 24 carries, two more than his total in a loss to Denver on Oct. 15.
TRENDS:
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in San Diego.
* Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Chargers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 9.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Kansas City's lone victory came in overtime at New Orleans.
2. San Diego has scored a total of six points over its last six quarters.
3. The Chiefs lead the NFL with 25 turnovers.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-02-12 01:00 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12033
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Las Vegas Sharps Report - NFL Week 9
Sharps have been relatively quiet this week in NFL betting heading into tonight’s nationally televised game between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Diego Chargers. That tells you Las Vegas oddsmakers are doing a better job of posting opening lines (about time!). It also tells you that there are games where professional wagerers are lying in wait for better numbers over the weekend. Sometimes early and midweek silence speaks loudly when it comes to how the Sharps bet the NFL.
Let’s run through what the Sharps are betting and thinking this week. Games are presented in official rotation order.
DENVER at CINCINNATI:
No interest yet in this one on the opening line of Denver -3.5. If a game opens a half point away from a critical number, then DOESN’T move, you can determine Sharp intent very easily. If Sharps liked the dog, they would have bet immediately because the number three is so common. They didn’t do that, which tells you they prefer the favorite. There’s no reason to bet right away with a line like -3.5. This will either be a pass for Sharps or a play on the favorite before kickoff. The market has been giving Peyton Manning respect in recent weeks, and rightly so. At the very least, this indicates that Sharps are sold on Denver as a legitimate AFC power right now, and are convinced that Cincinnati is a non-threat this year even though they made the playoffs last season.
ARIZONA AT GREEN BAY:
Another game that hasn’t budged off its opening number of GB-10.5. Sharps hit Green Bay hard last Sunday against a Jacksonville team that should have been overmatched. The Packers played so poorly that they almost lost the game outright! Sharps didn’t want to go back to the well again with a double digit home favorite. Arizona’ defense is better than Jacksonville’s, and has a double digit road upset at New England on its resume. Of course, Arizona looked so bad this past Monday against NFC power San Francisco that it’s hard to like them vs. another NFC power like Green Bay. Sharps will likely take the dog on game day if the public drives the favorite higher or pass on this game altogether.
MIAMI AT INDIANAPOLIS:
Interesting game here matching two up-and-comers in the AFC. Both have rookie quarterbacks. Both have a chance to make the playoffs anyway because they play in weak divisions and have found a way to win some early games. Sharps have made it clear in recent weeks however that they don’t see these teams as even. Oddsmakers read that right, and opened Miami at -2 even though they were on the road. That would suggest Miami is 5 points better on a neutral field. Sharps hit Miami anyway! We’re seeing -2.5 in most places now, though it's likely that some Indianapolis home dog money would come in were the game to move to three. Indianapolis does qualify for basic strategy teaser play at the current line, taking them as a dog up to +8.5. The lessons here are that the market as a whole sees Miami as the clearly superior team in this spot, and moving forward, but percentage histories will dictate that Sharps will also be on Indy+8.5 in two-team teasers.
BALTIMORE AT CLEVELAND:
We have a big move here even though it was only half a point! Sharps bet Baltimore -3 on the opener, driving the line to -3.5. We’ve told you in the past that it takes a lot of money to move off a three, and if the line doesn’t snap right back to the key number, then you know support for the favorite is strong. This game moved to -3.5 and stayed there. Sharps don’t like Cleveland here, dealing with a well-rested divisional visitor. Byes have been good for the better teams this year, and the Ravens are off a bye. Maybe it’s best to say that the Sharps love the potential bye boost in this spot rather than the favorite. Baltimore was a team badly in need of a break given their prior injury situation and recent form.
BUFFALO AT HOUSTON:
Here that we have a move toward the dog. Houston opened at -11 and dropped down to -10.5. Buffalo does have garbage time capabilities, and Sharps do pay attention to quarterback quality at double digit spreads. We’ve told you in the past that some Sharps bet all double digit dogs just on principle. That segment wasn’t active with Arizona in Green Bay with the short preparation week and dismal performance of the Cards, but did step in here enough to move the line a tick. Houston money would likely come in at -10, but there’s skepticism the line will move that low. Totals have been quiet this week. The number here fell from 48.5 to 47.5 with some early Under money. The fact that we didn't see Under interest in Cincinnati, Green Bay, and Cleveland is a virtual weather report for those cities this weekend. Totals plummeted in the Midwest last week when weather was forecast to be a big influence (and early bettors showed a profit with that approach).
CAROLINA AT WASHINGTON:
We probably have a weekend tug-of-war spot set up here just above the key number of three. Washington opened at -3.5, and nobody bet them. Some Sharps did play the dog, and there’s been enough interest in the dog that some stores are have changed the juice, or dropped the number to three with extra juice on the favorite. These teams seem evenly matched in a lot of ways, and both have young star quarterbacks. Home field is worth three points, and Washington has been in slightly better form this year. Ergo…Carolina +3.5 and Washington -3 are both Sharp plays because the chances of the game landing exactly on three are pretty good.
DETROIT AT JACKSONVILLE:
The Jaguars impressed enough Sharps last week that the opening line here of Detroit -4 has fallen to -3.5. Detroit has struggled to play up to expectations this season, turning most games into thrillers. You want the dog in thrillers! Sharps would hit Detroit if the game were to drop to the key number of three, unless a game day forecast of rain became a weather equalizer. Jacksonville becomes a more appealing play in the muck. Detroit is more dangerous in great conditions.
CHICAGO AT TENNESSEE:
A full point move is rare this week, but we’ve had that in this matchup. Chicago opened at -4.5 and was bet down to -3.5. The Bears were lucky to win last week vs. Carolina, and didn’t sparkle offensively the week before against Detroit. Tennessee shocked Pittsburgh on this field recently. Those skeptical about the Bears have already bet. Those who still believe in both the Bears and the general NFC dominance of the AFC this year are waiting to see if the line drops further. They’d rather lay the three and are waiting to see if they get it.
MINNESOTA AT SEATTLE:
Clear support for Seattle here. The opener of -4 has been bet up to -4.5 or -5. Given the general serenity of the markets this week, that seems like a thunderbolt! Sharps don’t think Christian Ponder is likely to have a good game on the road against this strong Seattle defense, given his recent struggles. This would have been a bigger play but the Vikings do have a few extra days of preparation time after playing a Thursday Nighter.
TAMPA BAY AT OAKLAND:
This will be the final game near the teaser window this week. Oakland opened at -1.5 and has stayed there in most places. That puts Tampa Bay +7.5 in the teaser window moving them up past the three and the seven. Some stores have moved the game line to Oakland -1 to avoid taking teaser bets. There's newfound respect for Tampa Bay from Sharps after their win in Minnesota, but it seems they’re saving their investments for games that have better prices and don’t involve cross-country trips, so for now at least they're using TB in teasers only.
PITTSBURGH AT NY GIANTS:
The showcase game of the afternoon will be a tug-of-war game where the home favorite Giants will draw money at -3, but the respected road underdog Pittsburgh will be attractive at +3.5. The opener was Giants -3.5 and the tug started right away, at least with vigorish. This will be the most bet game of the afternoon, and sportsbooks will be furious if the final score lands exactly on Giants by three.
DALLAS AT ATLANTA:
There are a lot of games in the 4-5-6 nether regions this week, between the key numbers of three and seven, and not near the teaser window. Atlanta opened at -4.5, but has been bet down to -4. Stat guys who believe turnovers regress to the mean are enthusiastic about Dallas posting some good results in the coming weeks. The Cowboys have playoff caliber raw stats but a horrible turnover differential. Also Atlanta doesn't have the look of a team likely to go undefeated, though they are home here where they've been extremely difficult to beat recently. Sharps have been waiting for the Cowboys to show up again since opening night.
PHILADELPHIA AT NEW ORLEANS:
Looks like we’ll finish the week Monday Night with another tug-of-war game. Sharps are generally skeptical of both teams right now, as each has consistently underachieved thus far in 2012. Still, it doesn't take an experienced Sharp to see that Michael Vick +3.5 against a really bad defense deserves some consideration, as does Drew Brees -3 at home on a fast track vs. a slumping opponent. For now, there’s more Vick interest than Brees interest because Sharps generally shade their passions toward the underdog, and they love getting a hook besides. The public will likely take New Orleans at -3 on game day, setting up another tug-of-war that sees sportsbooks praying the game doesn’t land exactly on the magic number.
That wraps up this week’s look at what the Sharps are betting in the NFL.
As Always, Good Luck Den!
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-04-12 12:56 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12033
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Week 9 Tips
November 3, 2012
The NFC has had its way with the AFC this season, taking 20 of 32 meetings. However, the NFC owns a barely profitable 17-15 ATS record in interconference action, which includes a dreadful 0-4 ATS mark in Week 8. Four interconference matchups take place in Week 9, as the two early kickoffs feature NFC North squads heading to AFC South sites in the role of road favorites.
Bears (-3 ½, 43 ½) at Titans - 1:00 PM EST
The Bears have failed to cover in each of the last two home wins over the Lions and Panthers, as Chicago hits the highway looking for its sixth consecutive victory. Lovie Smith's club squeaked by Carolina last Sunday, 23-22, but couldn't cash as 8 ½-point favorites. Chicago makes its third-ever trip to Tennessee on Sunday, taking on a Titans' squad that had its modest two-game winning streak snapped by the Colts in an overtime setback last Sunday.
Tennessee's defense showed signs of improvement despite its loss to Indianapolis, allowing just six points in the first 57 minutes of regulation. The Colts tied the game with three minutes remaining, while Andrew Luck's touchdown pass in overtime gave the Titans their first loss this season as a favorite. The Titans have split a pair of games against NFC North foes, including a Week 3 overtime triumph as home 'dogs against the Lions, 44-41.
Chicago keeps delivering defensively by returning six interceptions for scores this season, resulting in a 3-1 'over' record when it picks up a defensive touchdown. The lone loss for the Bears this season came on the highway at Green Bay in Week 2, but Chicago outscored Dallas and Jacksonville by a combined 75-21 in two road victories.
Lions (-4 ½, 44) at Jaguars - 1:00 PM EST
Jacksonville returns home after covering in losses at Oakland and Green Bay as underdogs, welcoming in a Detroit squad that is desperate to return to the .500 mark. The Lions are riding three consecutive covers after escaping the Seahawks in the final minute last Sunday, 28-24 as 2 ½-point favorites. That victory was just the first in the favorite role in four tries for the Lions, but now Jim Schwartz's team has to jump the road 'chalk' hurdle this week.
The last time the Lions laid points on the road, Detroit was shocked at Tennessee in overtime, while allowing five touchdowns of 60 yards or more. The Lions aren't exactly the best bet in the NFL away from Ford Field, posting a 5-8 ATS record on the highway since the start of 2011. In seven road games against AFC opponents in Schwartz's tenure, the Lions have hit the 'over' five times, including four consecutive contests.
The Jaguars don't have much to be proud of this season, while losing all three home games by at least 17 points to the Texans, Bengals, and Bears. Maurice Jones-Drew will miss his second consecutive game with a foot injury, as Jacksonville has tallied just 20 points at home this season. Jacksonville will try to turn around its luck against NFC opponents, losing eight of its last nine in interconference action since 2010 (4-5 ATS).
Buccaneers at Raiders (-1 ½, 46 ½) - 4:05 PM EST
This isn't exactly the second coming of Super Bowl XXXVII, when Tampa Bay dominated Oakland, 48-21. Both these teams enter Sunday's contest with identical 3-4 records and road victories last week. The Bucs put together their most complete performance of the season, routing the Vikings as 5 ½-point road 'dogs, 36-17 last Thursday. Tampa Bay is the one of the most effective teams against the number in 2012, as Greg Schiano's club has cashed five of seven games.
The Bucs own a perfect 3-0 ATS record away from Raymond James Stadium, but all three of those covers came when receiving at least 5 ½ points. Josh Freeman has helped lead this Tampa Bay offense to plenty of points recently, cashing the 'over' in four consecutive contests. Interestingly enough, the two games that the Bucs failed to cash came with the pointspread at two points or less.
The Silver and Black goes for its first three-game winning streak since last November, as Oakland defeated two of the AFC's lackeys in Jacksonville and Kansas City the previous two weeks. The Raiders haven't broken through for bettors as a favorite, posting an 0-3 ATS record as home 'chalk.' The last time these two teams met came in the final week of 2008, as the Raiders upset the Bucs, 31-24 as 11-point underdogs to knock Tampa Bay out of the playoffs.
Steelers at Giants (-3 ½, 47 ½) - 4:25 PM EST
Due to the effects of Hurricane Sandy, Pittsburgh won't travel to New Jersey until Sunday morning with the lack of hotel availability in the area. The Steelers seek their third consecutive victory after putting together their most convincing performance of the season against the Redskins last Sunday, 27-12 as 4 ½-point favorites. The schedule is setting up nicely for Pittsburgh moving forward, but this will be no walk in the park on Sunday.
The Giants squandered a 23-20 lead against the Cowboys last week, but New York found a way to avenge an opening week loss and beat Dallas, 29-24. Tom Coughlin's club is a perfect 5-0 against teams outside the NFC East this season, but the Giants have been pushed to the limit in all four home contests. New York trailed by double-digits before rallying past Tampa Bay and Cleveland, while needing a touchdown in the final minutes to stun Washington two weeks ago.
The Steelers have struggled in Mike Tomlin's tenure as a road underdog, posting a 4-10 ATS record since 2007. One of those losses came in the opening week at Denver, while gong 1-3 ATS as a road 'dog against NFC opponents the last five years. The defense is still holding up without safety Troy Polamalu, holding four of the previous six opponents to 17 points or less
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-04-12 01:05 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12033
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Total Talk - Week 9
November 3, 2012
Week 8 Recap
Once again, gamblers saw a nice balance with totals last. In the 14 games, the ‘over’ went 8-6 and on the season the ‘over’ is 60-57-1 and that doesn’t include Thursday’s outcome between the Chargers and Chiefs. For those of you who had the ‘under’ in that affair, our sincere apologies go out to you. San Diego led 10-6 heading into the fourth quarter before outscoring the Chiefs 21-7 in the final 15 minutes. The Chargers were aided with two defensive scores in the fourth quarter, pushing their season total to four touchdowns from the defensive unit.
Surprised? You really shouldn’t be because these second-half outbursts, in particular fourth quarter explosions, have been a reoccurring theme this season. Through eight weeks, there have been 60 defensive or special teams touchdowns. If the pace continues, we’ll see close to 130 touchdowns from those units scored. To put things in perspective, there were only 113 TDs scored from those units during the 2011 regular season.
Nelly!
In last week’s piece, we talked about VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson and his amazing run (76%, +2,437) in pro football this season. I’ve been with VI nine years and I’ve seen both good and bad ‘cappers – we don’t hide records! Joe’s got a great pulse on the league, especially with totals (13-3, 81%). We asked Joe what his secret was and he offered up some solid handicapping thoughts.
He explained, “The schedule certainly dictates a lot of my interest in certain totals. There often is an overreaction to short term results in the NFL, for example if a team has played a couple of high-scoring games against marginal defenses and then will face off against a very good defense there can be an opportunity.”
“It is also very important to take a close look at how the scoring has occurred in recent games. Is the team putting together consistent sustained drives or have they caught some breaks with turnovers or hit a few big plays that are not as likely to reoccur?”
“Before the season I definitely keyed in on a few teams that I felt would be good 'over' teams and a few that would be good 'under' teams early in the year but it is certainly not an automatic play each week. For example Baltimore was a team I felt would be a good 'over' bet as the defense seemed to be deteriorating despite. Sometimes those early season notions can be dead wrong and adjustments have to be made. I actually liked Jacksonville to be an 'over' team early in the season this year based on value that would be there from the low numbers the Jaguars had last season. And the preseason results showed much more passing but it became pretty clear they just don't have the personnel to put together consistent drives on offense.”
“I don't pay too much attention to total streaks other than understanding how a streak might impact a number being shaded and subsequently bet one way or another. Total streaks certainly get less attention than win/loss streaks but it only takes a few high-scoring or low-scoring games in a row to see some adjustments in the numbers. It is important to be aware of key numbers but for me a total rising above or below a key number will not automatically trigger a play. I think the core handicapping of the matchup is more important than the number.”
Rematch
Since the NFL has stacked the schedule with divisional matchups in the later part of the season, it’s rare that you see teams finishing off their two-game sets this early. So far this season, there have been three divisional rematches and all three have gone ‘over’ in the second go ‘round, two of them cashing last week and the other being played just this past Thursday.
Week 8 – N.Y. Giants 29 Dallas 24 (OVER 48)
Week 8 – Miami 30 N.Y. Jets 9 (OVER 38 ½)
Week 9 – San Diego 31 Kansas City 13 (OVER 41)
On Sunday, Baltimore and Cleveland will meet for the second and final time. In Week 4, the Ravens beat the Browns 23-16 in a Thursday Night affair and the combined 39 points went ‘under’ the closing total of 43 ½. Just looking at the numbers that the oddsmakers posted, it’s very clear that both teams don’t have good defensive units. This week’s total opened at 42 ½ and has held steady at most shops.
Baltimore has won nine straight in this series and the ‘under’ has gone 6-3 (67%) during this span. When these two franchises clash, a total in the forties is very uncommon, something that’s happened three times in the last 20 instances which includes this year’s first encounter.
So do you stick with the trend and go ‘under’ or respect the oddsmakers’ ratings and go ‘over.’ Neither team has a very good defense, which always bodes well for high-scoring affairs. However, can Cleveland’s inconsistent offense do enough for this number? Baltimore is off the bye and at the very least, should be prepared for this battle. Also, remember what Joe Nelson said about the Ravens’ defense (see above).
Line Moves
The smart money went 1-2 with their total moves in Week 8. We published the piece on Friday but there were also some late moves on Sunday, clearly related to weather. The Steelers-Redskins, Dolphins-Jets and Chargers-Browns all got steamed down and the ‘under’ went 2-1 in those games, plus the Miami-New York (30-9) matchup was a possible middle for some players who took ‘under’ 40 during the week and ‘over’ 38 ½ before kickoff.
Here are the early moves at CRIS:
Carolina at Washington: Line opened at 46 and jumped to 48
Tampa Bay at Oakland: Line opened 45 and jumped to 47
Under the Lights
The ‘under’ continues to be a money-maker in these primetime games, despite the aforementioned Thursday outcome between the Chiefs and Chargers. On the season, the ‘under’ stands at 17-9 (65%) but this week’s SNF and MNF battles do have potential to see some points posted. The two games will be played indoors as the Falcons host the Cowboys and the Saints welcome the Eagles.
Fearless Predictions
Despite having some confidence, we came up short last week and lost 20 cents ($20) as the Best Bets went 1-1. The Team Total setback was offset with another Three-Team teaser winner. On the season, we’re up three bucks ($300) and looking to produce more profits in Week 9. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!
Best Over: Carolina-Washington 48
Best Under: Miami-Indianapolis 43
Best Team Total: Under 21 Seattle
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 39 Carolina-Washington
Over 43 Philadelphia-New Orleans
Under 47 Minnesota-Seattle
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-04-12 01:07 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12033
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Las Vegas Money Moves
November 2, 2012
The Seahawks have been impressive all season, despite being on a two-game losing streak. There’s no shame in losing at San Francisco or Detroit in two very close games. Bettors often shy away from the Seahawks when they’re on the road, but at when they play at home, that is when they like to jump all in.
It’s plain and simple, the Seahawks have one of the better home-field advantages in football. They’ve covered all three of their home games this season, and they were games against top-notch opponents. Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Tony Romo all took their teams into Seattle this season and all of them took the long flight home after the game as losers.
This week, Christian Ponder and the Vikings will visit the Emerald City with hopes that they can forget the Thursday night beating they took on national TV from the Buccaneers. After starting the season with a surprising 4-1 record, they have now fallen in two of their past three. Most of the blame can be placed upon Ponder himself and the coaching staff that doesn’t allow him to do more. When is the last time you saw Ponder throw more than 20 yards downfield?
It kind of makes it easier for opposing defenses to defend against the Vikings top weapon -- Adrian Peterson -- knowing that the coach won’t let the quarterback beat you deep.
So at this juncture of the season, how can a wager on the Vikings be justified? You can just go with the flow of the season trend by taking the points and hope that the 61 percent rate keeps hitting, but even then, you want to feel good about a wager when putting money down and there just doesn’t seem to be anything there based on their current form and Seattle’s dominance at home.
So far this week, Vikings money has been hard to find. The LVH Super Book opened the Seahawks as 3 ½-point favorites on Sunday night and within 90 minutes, the game had been bet up to 4 ½. On Monday, the game went to -5, until someone finally bit on the Vikings Thursday and pushed the number back to 4 ½. As of Friday, only the South Point had a five on the board in town.
Parlay action has been pretty one-sided as well. The top public parlay combinations this week, along with the Seahawks, are the Broncos (-3 ½), Packers (-10 ½), Texans (-10), and Lions (-4).
Peyton Manning is definitely back to looking like his former self after missing an entire season. The rough part of their schedule is over and Denver managed to come out a respectable 4-3 with losses coming at the hands of the Texans, Patriots, and Falcons -- teams we expect to not only make the playoffs, but do well. This week they get a Bengals squad on a three-game losing streak.
-- The Broncos opened as three-point road favorites at Cincinnati and have been bet up to -3 ½.
-- The Packers opened as 9 ½-point home favorites against the Cardinals and were bet up to as high as 11 before settling at 10 ½. After starting the year off with four straight wins, the Cardinals have lost their past four games, and have looked ugly do it. They can‘t run the ball and they can‘t throw the ball. The only thing you have on your side with the Cardinals is that they play good defense and have a weapon on special teams. And you also have the Packers that can seem bored at times, like last week when they went through the motions against a terrible Jacksonville squad. The Packers have only covered three of their eight games this season.
-- The Lions get a chance to take a whack at the Jaguars this week. While the Packers were bored, the Lions should be thrilled. They come off their best offensive performance of the season where Matt Stafford finally found some rhythm and play a Jags squad that has been beat by 75 points combined in three homes games, obviously, not covering any of them. The Lions opened as 4 ½-point favorites, but were bet against by large money to -4. The public doesn’t care what the line is, they just keep betting Detroit.
-- The Texans opened as 10 ½-point favorites against the Bills. Large money took the points and the Texans now sit at -10. The 61% value might be with the dog here, but the public wants nothing to do with the Bills.
-- The Raiders opened as three-point favorites over the red-hot Buccaneers, and the number didn’t last long. By Tuesday morning, it was down to -1, and has since settled at 1 ½. The Bucs have averaged 31 points a game their past three with Josh Freeman looking like a Pro Bowler throwing for almost 1,000 yards and nine touchdowns over that span. But the Raiders have been playing well, too. Since getting blasted by the Broncos, the Raiders lost a heartbreaker at Atlanta, and then beat the Jaguars and Chiefs. The side bettors are looking at is the OVER, which opened 45 points and has moved to 46 ½.
-- The Giants opened as 3 ½-point home favorites against the Steelers, but the first large money seen was on Pittsburgh dropping the number to three. The Steelers are no bargain on the road, covering only once in their past eight road games, but the Giants don’t seem to have the same appeal at home as they do on the road, covering only seven times as a home favorite in their past 25.
-- The Falcons opened as 4 ½-point home favorites against the Cowboys, and surpringly, Dallas money has pushed the number to four.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-04-12 01:10 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12033
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Sunday, Nov. 4 - All games to start at 1:00 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
Cincy "over" 14-9-1 since LY and "over' 10-7-1 last 18 at Paul Brown Stadium. Bengals no covers last 3 TY, now 1-6-1 last 8 at home. Cincy also 1-6-1 last 8 as dog. "Over" and Broncos, based on "totals" and team trends.
Whisenhunt "under" 7-1 TY, "under' 12-4-1 last 17, and "under" 9-2 last 11 on road. "Under," based on Cards "totals" trends.
Dolphins 8-1 vs. line last 9 on road, although Colts 3-1 vs. points at home TY with Andrew Luck. Dolphins "under" 25-14 since 2010. Dolphins and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.
"Unders" 6-1 last seven in this series and Browns "under" 19-9 last 27 since late 2010. Ravens have won last 9 SU in series but also no covers last four TY, including 23-16 win but no cover vs. Brownies at M&T Bank Stadium Sept. 27. "Under" and slight to Browns, based on "totals" and team trends.
Texans 5-2 vs. line TY, 19-7 last 26 on board since late in 2010 campaign. Bills "over" 16-8 since late in 2010 season. Texans and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
Skins "over" 6-1 last 7 at home. Cam yet to cover back-to-back weeks TY. "Over" and slight to Skins, based on team and "totals" trends.
Lions "over" 27-14-2 since late 2009 and have been "over" 12-2-2 last 16 away from Ford Field. Road team is 7-0 vs. line in Jag games TY (JV 0-3 at home), and Jags 3-7 vs. line at home since LY. Lions and "over," based on Lions trends.
Bears 9-2 vs. line in last 11 games started by Jay Cutler, returning back to old college hometown. Titans also "over" 7-3 last 9 since late LY. "Over" and slight to Bears, based on "totals" and team trends.
Sunday, Nov. 4 - All games to start at 4:05 and 4:25 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
Pete Carroll "under" 6-2 TY after "over" 22-11-1 in Carroll's first two seasons. Vikes "under" 6-2 last 8 since late LY. Seahawks 3-0 vs. line at home TY and have covered last 6 and 9 of 11 at CenturyLink Field since LY. Seahawks and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.
Bucs 5-2 vs. line for Schiano. Bucs "over" 4-3 TY and "over" 8-4 last 12, Raiders "over" 6-1 last 7 at home. "Over" and Bucs, based on "totals" and team trends.
Steelers finally covered one on the road at Cincy but still only 3-11 last 14 vs. number away from home. Steel "over" 4-1 last 5 away since late LY. Tomlin also 1-5 vs. line last 6 as dog. G-Men 11-3 last 13 on board since late LY. "Over" and Giants, based on team and "totals" trends.
Sunday, Nov. 4 - NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
Dallas 8-17-1 last 26 on board since late 2010. Falcons "under" 12-7 last 19 since mid 2011. "Under" and Falcons, based on "totals" and team trends.
Monday, Nov. 5 - ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
Andy Reid only 1-6 vs. line TY, Saints 10-2 vs. line at home since 2010 (1-2 TY). Saints, based on Saints
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-04-12 01:15 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12033
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NFL odds: Week 9 opening line report
We usually save our “Lines that make you go hmmm…” for later in the week, but Week 9’s Monday night matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints has everyone – from books to bettors – scratching their heads.
“This is a really tough game,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, told Covers. “The initial perception is that this is going to be a really good game, exciting with lots of scoring. But, in reality, it’s looking like a 17-14 game.”
Korner’s crew of oddsmakers sent out a suggested spread of Saints -5. Online books opened the game as low as New Orleans -3. Regardless of the opening line, it’s safe to say Week 9’s marquee Monday Night Football game features the two most disappointing teams of the 2012 season.
New Orleans, hindered by all the offseason drama of Bountygate, is 2-5 SU (3-4 ATS) and coming off an embarrassing 34-14 loss to the Denver Broncos Sunday night. The Eagles are also limping into Week 9, falling to 3-4 SU (1-5-1 ATS) after a 30-17 flogging by the undefeated Atlanta Falcons.
“I’m lost on this game,” laughs Korner. “One team will have to win, in that case we’ll go with the home team.”
Korner was baffled by the betting patterns for the Falcons-Eagles game, which saw Philadelphia open as the favorite and draw action throughout the course of the week. He’s even more surprised that many online books have opened this week’s spread as low as a field goal.
Korner admits New Orleans hasn’t performed much better, but the Saints are far from the hot mess that has become the Eagles’ season.
Quarterback Michael Vick continues to limit the offense, which has scored just 17.1 points per game (30th in the NFL). Rumors are picking up momentum that head coach Andy Reid – whose job is on the chopping block - may look to backup QB Nick Foles in an attempt to save the season and his job.
“I think Reid’s time is coming to an end,” says Korner.
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-9.5, 42.5)
By now, we’ve all read the cringe-inducing stats regarding the Chiefs and their futility this season and you could make an argument that Kansas City is the worst NFL team we’ve seen in some time.
The odds for Thursday night’s meeting between the Chiefs and Chargers are teetering on double digits at some markets while others have this standalone game as low as Bolts -8.
Korner says two of his oddsmakers brought spreads of 7.5 to the table while others had it as high as 10. He’s suggesting keeping this number as high as possible and sent out San Diego -9.5, even suggesting a move to -10 or above.
“You don’t want to be cheering for Kansas City come Thursday night,” he says.
Korner is throwing out the Chargers’ 7-6 loss to the Cleveland Browns Sunday, believing the bad weather had a lot to do with San Diego’s lack of offense. Quarterback Philip Rivers went just 18 for 34 and finished with 154 yards and no touchdowns.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants (-3.5, 47)
The Giants escaped a second-half collapse versus the Dallas Cowboys Sunday to improve to 6-2 and now return home to host the Pittsburgh Steelers, who beat up on New York’s NFC East rivals, the Washington Redskins, in Week 8.
Korner sent out the G-Men at -5 while online books are offering the defending champs as low as a field goal. He says people are thinking about New York’s dreadful second half in Dallas and forgetting the one important thing.
“New York won that game,” says Korner. “The Giants just plain win. For them to be 3-point favorites in Dallas, it should warrant them being bigger than 3-point favorites at home to a Pittsburgh team that isn’t the same ole Pittsburgh team.”
“It’s a really good game, and the Giants seem to always win these big games”
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-5, 47.5)
Korner believes football bettors are getting a deal on the Falcons as 5-point favorites, after sending out the lone unblemished squad as touchdown chalk at home on Sunday night.
“This is cheap,” says Korner. “(Atlanta) has firepower, it’s explosive, it’s playing good defense. If they can handle Philly on the road, they can surely handle Dallas at home.”
Korner says a lot of the parlay money for Sunday will be tied into this Sunday nighter, making it one of the deciding games of the Week 9 slate.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-04-12 01:17 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12033
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Sunday, November 4
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DENVER (4 - 3) at CINCINNATI (3 - 4) - 11/4/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 41-68 ATS (-33.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 106-142 ATS (-50.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 1-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ARIZONA (4 - 4) at GREEN BAY (5 - 3) - 11/4/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 145-107 ATS (+27.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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MIAMI (4 - 3) at INDIANAPOLIS (4 - 3) - 11/4/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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BALTIMORE (5 - 2) at CLEVELAND (2 - 6) - 11/4/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 3-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 5-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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BUFFALO (3 - 4) at HOUSTON (6 - 1) - 11/4/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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CAROLINA (1 - 6) at WASHINGTON (3 - 5) - 11/4/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 62-37 ATS (+21.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 47-80 ATS (-41.0 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 65-91 ATS (-35.1 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 65-91 ATS (-35.1 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 65-91 ATS (-35.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 16-36 ATS (-23.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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DETROIT (3 - 4) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 6) - 11/4/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 20-39 ATS (-22.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 31-52 ATS (-26.2 Units) in November games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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CHICAGO (6 - 1) at TENNESSEE (3 - 5) - 11/4/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 39-18 ATS (+19.2 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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MINNESOTA (5 - 3) at SEATTLE (4 - 4) - 11/4/2012, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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TAMPA BAY (3 - 4) at OAKLAND (3 - 4) - 11/4/2012, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 36-66 ATS (-36.6 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 28-62 ATS (-40.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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PITTSBURGH (4 - 3) at NY GIANTS (6 - 2) - 11/4/2012, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 49-29 ATS (+17.1 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 55-33 ATS (+18.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 28-51 ATS (-28.1 Units) in November games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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DALLAS (3 - 4) at ATLANTA (7 - 0) - 11/4/2012, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 8-23 ATS (-17.3 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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Monday, November 5
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PHILADELPHIA (3 - 4) at NEW ORLEANS (2 - 5) - 11/5/2012, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 148-110 ATS (+27.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games when playing on Monday night since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-40 ATS (-25.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-04-12 01:42 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12033
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Sunday, November 4, 2012
Denver at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Denver: 13-3 ATS after gaining 500+ total yards
Cincinnati: 14-4 Over vs. conference opponents
Arizona at Green Bay, 1:00 ET
Arizona: 9-2 Under in road games
Green Bay: 8-2 ATS off a non-conference game
Miami at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Miami: 15-5 ATS in road games
Indianapolis: 10-22 ATS at home off ATS losses in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games
Baltimore at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 8-1 Over off a loss
Cleveland: 0-6 ATS after winning 2 of their last 3 games
Buffalo at Houston, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 12-3 Over as an underdog
Houston: 15-4 ATS vs. conference opponents
Carolina at Washington, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 9-1 Over as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
Washington: 1-5 ATS as a favorite
Detroit at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 4-17 ATS as a road favorite
Jacksonville: 7-0 ATS after losing 4 of their last 5 games
Chicago at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Chicago: 28-13 Under away vs. non-conference opponents
Tennessee: 39-18 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
Minnesota at Seattle, 4:05 ET
Minnesota: 23-10 Over away off BB home games
Seattle: 9-2 ATS in home games
Tampa Bay at Oakland, 4:05 ET
Tampa Bay: 26-12 ATS after scoring 30+ points
Oakland: 11-24 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less
Pittsburgh at NY Giants, 4:25 ET
Pittsburgh: 1-8 ATS off a home win
NY Giants: 12-4 ATS off BB wins by 6 points or less
(TC) Dallas at Atlanta, 8:30 ET NBC
Dallas: 6-0 Over after losing 4 or 5 of their last 6 games
Atlanta: 3-13 ATS at home off 3+ wins
Monday, November 5, 2012
(TC) Philadelphia at New Orleans, 8:40 ET ESPN
Philadelphia: 13-4 ATS away on Monday Night Football
New Orleans: 13-5 Over vs. conference opponents
(TC) = Time Change
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-04-12 01:43 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12033
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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 9
Broncos (4-3) @ Bengals (3-4)—Denver survived gauntlet of early season primetime games vs quality foes, now head into softer part of schedule after hanging 35/34 points on Chargers/Saints; they’ve won 12 of last 14 games vs Bengals, winning last three, all by 5 or less points. Broncos scored 14 TD’s on last 40 drives; they’re 0-2 on artificial turf, losing to Falcons/Patriots, maybe two best teams in NFL. Bengals lost last three games before their bye, turning ball over eight times (-3); they’re 9-5-1 as home dogs since ’08, but covered just one of last four in that role- they’ve lost two of three at home this year, with only win against the Browns. Cincy is 3-8-1 vs spread in last 12 games as a post-bye underdog (4-11-1 SU in last 16 post-bye games). AFC North teams are 6-13 vs spread in non-divisional games, 2-1 as home dogs. Three of last four Bengal games stayed under the total.
Cardinals (4-4) @ Packers (5-3)—Arizona is only third team to be 4-4 after starting season 4-0; they head east on short week after dismal showing in 24-3 home loss to 49ers Monday night. Redbirds lost last eight games in Dairyland, with six of eight losses by 17+ points, but they did win last series meeting, 51-45 in OT in ’09 playoffs, when Warner was their QB-- their last win in Green Bay was in 1947. Packers are 4-1-1 vs spread in last six games as a pre-bye favorite; they sleepwalked past Jaguars last week 24-15, getting outgained by 103 yards- they’re 1-3 as home favorites this year, after being 15-7 from 2009-11. Cardinals scored 91 points in first four games, 36 points in last four (3 TD’s on last 48 drives); opponents are taking Fitzgerald away, and no other viable options have emerged. NFC North faves are 7-10 vs spread in non-divisional games. Seven of eight Arizona games stayed under total.
Dolphins (4-3) @ Colts (4-3)—Back in May, no one figured winner of this game would hit halfway mark over .500. Miami won last its three games, allowing 12 ppg (3 TD’s on last 35 drives); they allowed 30-23-24 points in losses, 14 or less in wins- they’re 2-2 on road, and have been killing teams on special teams, with blocked punt/onside kick at Jets last week, just in first quarter. Colts won three of last four games; five of their last six were decided by 5 or less points, or in OT. Indy is 3-1 at home, with only loss when Jaguars hit 75-yard TD pass in last 2:00 after Colts had taken lead. Indy won last three series games, by 6-5-4 points, but that was in Manning era. Miami won five of last six visits here, mostly back when teams were AFC East rivals. AFC South home teams are 7-3 vs spread in non-divisional games. Last three Miami games and four of last six Colt contests stayed under total.
Ravens (4-3) @ Browns (2-6)—Baltimore lost 43-13 at Houston in last pre-bye game, outgained 420-176; they’re 1-2 on road, with only win 9-6 over woeful Chiefs, but Ravens won/covered nine of last ten post-bye games, so interesting to see if week off helped at all. Browns (+2.5) snuck past Chargers 7-6 in rain last week, their second straight home win; they’re 7-20 vs hated Ravens (former Browns), losing last nine series games, with six of nine by 10+ points. Ravens won first meeting 23-16 (-11), a Week 4 Thursday game, when Baltimore outrushed Browns 101-43 and threw ball for 337 yards, but now with Webb/ Lewis out for year, who steps up for their defense? Since ’08, Baltimore is 5-2 vs spread as an AFC North road favorite; Browns are 8-5 in last 13 games as divisional home underdog. Home teams covered three of first four AFC North divisional games. Five of seven Baltimore games went over the total.
Bills (3-4) @ Texans (6-1)—Mario Williams returns to Houston as expensive flop for Buffalo, which allowed 35+ points in all four losses, including last game before bye, when Titans scored on last play to win weird 35-34 game. Bills allowed 17 or less points in its three wins, but Texans are 3-1 as home favorites this year, scoring 33.8 ppg at Reliant (11 TDs on 43 home drives)- they’re 18-12-3 in last 33 games as home faves. Buffalo is scoring 18.5 ppg on road, 32.3 at home; they’re 3-6-1 in last 10 games as road dogs- their last two games overall were decided by total of four points. Bills are 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine games as post-bye underdog (5-2 last seven SU), Texans are 3-1 as post-bye favorites, but lost five of last seven post-bye games SU. AFC East underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in non-divisional games. Four of last five Houston games, five of seven Buffalo games went over total.
Panthers (1-6) @ Redskins (3-5)—This year’s most exciting rookie QB meets LY’s most exciting rookie QB; both teams are struggling, with Carolina losing last five games (last four by 5 or less points), Redskins losing three of last four. Panthers outgained Chicago 416-210 last week, but were poor in red zone (one TD, three FGs on four trips) and had 11-yard disadvantage in field position. Washington hasn’t held an opponent under 22 points this year- they’re 1-2 at home, with average total in three games, 58.0. Home side won last seven series games, with Carolina winning last two (20-17/33-20) after losing seven of first eight series meetings. Panthers are 0-5 at Washington, but all five losses were by 4 or less points. Five of last six series totals were 37 or less. NFC East favorites are 3-9 vs spread in non-divisional games. NFC South road underdogs are 7-1. Six of eight Washington games went over the total.
Lions (3-4) @ Jaguars (1-6)—Detroit’s three wins this year are all by 4 or less points, with winning points all coming in last 0:30 or in OT; Lions are 1-3 on road, with underdog covering three of four games. Over last decade, Detroit is 1-5-2 vs spread as a road favorite (0-1 in ’12), but they’re 5-2-2 vs spread in last nine games vas AFC teams. Jags have been awful at home, losing by 20-17-38 points (average score, 32-7); they’re 3-8 in last 11 games as home underdog- they’ve scored five offensive TDs in last four games, with two of five drives on short field (16-13 yards). Jax ran ball for just 61.3 ypg in last four games. Home side lost three of four series games, only one of which was decided by less than 15 points; Detroit lost both visits here, 37-22 in ’98, 23-17ot in ’04. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 7-10 against the spread. Four of last six Jaguar games stayed under total.
Bears (6-1) @ Titans (3-5)— Cutler played college ball in Nashville (Vanderbilt) so this is homecoming for him, after Chicago escaped with 23-22 home win over gritty Panthers last week (Bears were outgained 416-210); Bears have 23 takeaways in seven games (+12), and scored six TD’s on defense/special teams in last five games, hiding an offense that struggled in two games since bye (3.4/3.9 ypa last two games, allowing 11 sacks). Last three Titan games were decided by 3 or less points, or in OT; last week’s OT loss to Colts was first close game Tennessee lost this year- four of its five losses are by 23+ points. Expect Bears to try and run ball vs Titan defense that allowed 166-171 rushing yards the last two weeks. AFC South underdogs are 8-6 vs spread in non-divisional games. Three of last four Chicago games, four of last six Titan games went over total.
Vikings (5-3) @ Seahawks (4-4)—Seattle been much better at home; they’re 3-0 there, allowing 14 ppg while upsetting Packers/Patriots (giving up only four TDs on 30 drives)- they allow 20.4 ppg on road (8 TDs/50 drives). Seahawks are 0-2 as favorites this year (both games were on road); underdogs are 7-1 vs spread in their games this year- since ’05, they’re 22-12-1 vs spread as home favorites. Vikings are running ball for 105 ypg on road this year, 130 ypg at home- they had three extra days to prepare after bad home loss to Bucs. Minnesota is 1-3 when it allows 23+ points; they’ve given up 13-13-14 points in its their other wins. Teams haven’t met since ’09; Vikings won last two meetings, but lost four of six visits here. Six of last seven series games were decided by 17+ points. NFC North teams are 9-12 vs spread in non-divisional games. Six of eight Seattle games stayed under the total, as did five of Vikings’ last seven.
Buccaneers (3-4) @ Raiders (3-4)— Oakland won six of eight series games; last loss was to Gruden in SB XXXVII ten years ago; Bucs are 0-4 in Black Hole, losing by average score of 35-13. This year’s Raiders are showing signs of life after 1-4 start, beating pair of stiff teams after encouraging 23-20 loss at unbeaten Falcons- they’re 2-1 at home, but both wins (Pitt/Jax) were by a FG- since losing that Super Bowl, Oakland is 8-21 vs spread when favored at home. Bucs had extra time here after encouraging Thursday win at Minnesota; they’re 3-0 as road underdogs this year, as Vincent Jackson has proven to be valuable downfield target for Freeman. Bucs also ran ball for 134 yards/game in three weeks since their bye, so they’re getting better balance. NFC South road teams are 9-1 vs spread in non-divisional games. Last four Tampa Bay games, four of last six Raider games went over the total.
Steelers (4-3) @ Giants (6-2)—Real life intrudes; anyone who lives in New Jersey has had a rough week. Giants’ prep here has to have been disrupted. That said, if Archie Manning hadn’t strong-armed Chargers into trading his youngest son to Swamp, Giants would’ve drafted Big Ben, and NFL history would be different. Home teams lost four of last five series games, with Giants winning last meeting at Heinz in ’08. Pitt won three of last five visits here, but haven’t faced Big Blue here since ’04. Giants are 1-3 as home favorites this year, winning last three games in Swamp by 7-14-4 points; they’re coming off pair of wins over division rivals Redskins/Cowboys- underdogs covered seven of their eight games. Pitt is 1-3 on road this year, allowing 31-34-26 points in losses; they’ve allowed only one opponent (Raiders) to rush for 100+ yards. Giants are 1-3 vs spread when running ball for less than 100 yards. Since ’06, Steelers are 11-20-1 vs spread as road underdogs. Three of last four Steeler games stayed under; three of last four Giant games went over.
Cowboys (3-4) @ Falcons (7-0)—All three Dallas games since its bye went down to last minute, with Pokes losing two of three; loss to Giants last week was heartbreaker, rallying back from 23-0 deficit to take lead, before coming up just short. Cowboys are 2-2 on road; they’ve allowed 17 or less points in all three wins, 27+ in its four losses. Atlanta is NFL’s last unbeaten team; they’re 3-0 at home, 1-2 as home favorites, winning home games by 6-2-3 points- since ’07, they’re 20-9-1 as home favorites. Atlanta scored 23+ points in every game this year, 27-30-23 in three home games. Dallas is 16-8 vs Falcons, winning last two meetings, last of which was in ’09; they’re 7-5 on Peachtree Street, winning last two visits- their last loss here was in ’93. NFC South home favorites are 3-6 vs spread in non-divisional games. Three of last four Dallas games went over the total.
Eagles (3-4) @ Saints (2-5)— Two desperate, struggling teams; could be Vick’s last chance to keep starting job- if he can’t move ball against defense that allowed 513-530 yards in two games since its bye, then rookie Foles could see action. Philly also had disruptions this week after hurricane; they’re 1-2 on road, with only win in last 2:00 in Cleveland, hardly a green flag. Saints are putrid on defense but had scored 24+ points in every game until last week’s debacle in Denver, when they were outgained 530-252, with much of the 252 in garbage time. NO is 0-4 when it scores less than 31 points, but scary to back struggling visitor that recently canned its DC against Brees’ offense. Teams haven’t met since Saints won 40-22 in last meeting at Linc, three years ago; Eagles are 8-4 in last 12 visits here, 8-8 overall. NFC East road underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in non-divisional games.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-04-12 01:53 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12033
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Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves
With the calendar turning to November, books and bettors have a tighter grasp on the NFL teams heading into Week 9. We take a closer look at which lines have been on the move, in Las Vegas and online, with help from Jay Rood, sportsbook director at the MGM Mirage, and Mike Perry of Sportsbook.ag.
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans – Open: Texas -12, Move: -10
It’s been all public money on the Texans so far in Nevada and online. Perry reports 70 to 80 percent of the action is on Houston while Rood says the sharps are sitting this one out. The number opened as high as -12, however, most markets are dealing the key number of 10 as of Thursday.
“Wise guys haven’t come in on this one at all,” Rood told Covers. “We might go to 11 and (sharps) might take a pop and move it back to 10.5.”
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts – Open: Colts +1, Move: +2.5
The Dolphins, winners of three in a row, have been wiseguy darlings this season. However, the sharp money hasn’t influenced this move yet. Rood says the money has been pretty split with a slight lean to Miami.
“It’s a tough game for the betting public to figure out,” he says. “I don’t see it going up right now. If the sharps are getting involved in it, it may move (to the key number of -3).”
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Oakland Raiders – Open: Raiders -1, Move: Pick
Money on the Bucs has moved this spread as far as a pick for Sunday’s game. Tampa Bay is another team drawing the admiration of sharps in recent weeks. Rood says the action has been split as of Thursday but the move to a pick’em at certain books may be an indication of where this line will end up.
“The +1 could be disappearing quickly and I could see it coming down to a pick at most places closer to game time,” he says.
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks – Open: Seahawks -2.5, Move: -4.5
This spread was as high as -5 before buyback came in on the Vikings. Minnesota is coming off a crushing home loss last Thursday and travels for just the third time this season to the toughest stadium in the NFL. The spread isn’t the only thing on the move for this game. The total has dropped from 39.5 to 38.5.
“It’s going to be a test for Minnesota,” says Rood. “Minnesota’s defense is going to have to step up and give the offense a shot to win the game. It could be a test of wills on defense and a matter of whose horse can get going first – (Marshawn) Lynch or (Adrian) Peterson.”
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons – Open: Falcons -7, Move: -4
One online book opened this Sunday Night Football showdown as high as a touchdown. Most books are now dealing -4 with sharp bets coming in early on the Cowboys. Perry says they opened the spread at -5 and went to -5.5 before wise guys came back on Dallas. Sixty to 70 percent of the money is on the Falcons, however.
“As long as Dallas doesn’t shoot themselves in the foot, they can play with anyone in the league,” says Rood. “From a result perspective, nothing would shock me. I could see Dallas come out and stoke the Falcons by three touchdowns. And, I could see it be the complete opposite.”
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints – Open: Saints -3.5, Move: -3
Two struggling franchises take the Monday night spotlight, with the early money coming in on the Eagles and moving to the key number of a field goal.
“The sharks bit hard on this one at 3.5,” says Perry, “dropping the number to 3. Money is virtually down the middle, with 51 percent on the Saints.”
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-04-12 01:59 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12033
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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 9
Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 9:
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-4, 47.5)
Cowboys’ slow starts vs. Falcons fast first quarters
The Cowboys play their best football when behind on the scoreboard, which has kind of been the way all their games are going. Dallas ranks 30th in the NFL in first-quarter points, averaging just two per game, and was outscored 13-0 in the first quarter of last week’s loss to New York.
Atlanta, on the other hand, has stayed perfect in the standings thanks to its strong starts. The Falcons offense is averaging 6.7 points per first quarter – fourth in the NFL – and the team has trailed after one frame only once this season, outscoring foes 48-13 in the first quarter.
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-10, 47)
Bills’ run defense vs. Arian Foster
Buffalo’s defensive line might as well have a turnstile the way opposing teams are rushing through it. The Bills rank dead last in the league in defending the run, giving up 176.9 yards on the ground per game. They were gashed for 195 yards and two scores from Tennessee RB Chris Johnson last weekend. Buffalo has given up nearly two rushing touchdowns per game this season, another NFL worst.
Foster leads the league in scores on the ground, rumbling into the end zone 10 times and sits fifth in total rushing yards with 659. He’ll have plenty of fuel in the tank after a bye which followed a 98-yard, two-score performance against Baltimore in Week 7.
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5, 38.5)
Sheltered Vikes vs. Soggy CenturyLink Field
Surprise, surprise. The extended forecast is calling for rain in Seattle. There’s a 50 percent chance of showers and game-time temperatures are expected to slip into the low 50s. Add to that environment the always-boisterous “12th Man” at CenturyLink Field, and the Vikes are in hostile territory in Week 9.
That shouldn’t phase a bunch of tough guys from Minnesota, except for the fact the Vikings are sheltered under the cozy confines of the Metrodome most weeks. Minnesota has played just one outdoor game this season – a 38-28 loss at Washington – and is 1-2 SU and ATS away from home this season.
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-3, 52.5)
Eagles’ field position vs. Saints’ punting
Part of the Eagles’ struggles on offense has come from poor field position. Philadelphia ranks 31st in the league in starting field position, beginning drives at an average of the 24.9-yard line. In 83 possessions this year, the Eagles have started at their own 40-yard line of better just eight times. The Eagles rank third worst in punt return yardage (5.6 yards per return) and i26th in the NFL in kick return yards (20.2 yards per kick return).
The Saints aren’t doing a lot of things right but have been one of the best punting team in the NFL this season. New Orleans’ big boot Thomas Morstead boasts an average punt of 51.3 yards (second highest in the NFL) and the return coverage is keeping that at 46.4 average yards net on punts – tops in the league.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-04-12 01:01 AM |
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