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CNOTES
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Cnotes 2012 Nfl Sept. Best Bets !
NY Giants Host Cowboys To Kick Off NFL Season
The New York Giants start the defense of their Super Bowl title and kick off another exciting NFL football season when they host the Dallas Cowboys on Wednesday.
The Don Best Pro Odds screen has the Giants as 4-point favorites after opening at three. The total is 46 and NBC will have the national broadcast from MetLife Stadium at 8:30 p.m. (ET). The rest of the league will wait to play until Sunday.
Injuries to Dallas are a big part of the spread move. Tight end Jason Witten (spleen) and receiver Miles Austin (hamstring) are both questionable. Austin has said that he will play, while the tea leaves point towards Witten being out.
Nose tackle Jay Ratliff (ankle) and guard Phil Costa (back) are listed as questionable as well. Dallas did get some insurance along the offensive line by acquiring Ryan Cook from Miami. He can provide depth at both guard and center.
Tony Romo may be the most scrutinized quarterback in the league. The Cowboys were seventh in the league in passing last year (263 YPG) and 11th in total yards (375.5 YPG), but just 15th in points (23.1 PPG).
The now 32-year-old Romo needs to make the big play at crucial times, instead of an interception or fumble. There can be no excuses at this point in his career even if his security-blanket Witten is out and replaced by John Phillips.
Romo should get help from running back DeMarco Murray, although the offensive line is pretty shaky overall. The defense (14th last year in total yards) should be better in the second year under coordinator Rob Ryan, with two new cornerbacks in free agent Brandon Carr and rookie Morris Claiborne.
New York is trying to become the first team to repeat as NFL champs since the 2004 New England Patriots. It won’t be easy with the dreaded 'Super Bowl hangover,' but the team does have the pieces in place to at least make a playoff run.
Eli Manning isn’t quite as good in the regular season as he is in the playoffs. His quarterback rating of 92.9 last year ranked seventh. Receiver Mario Manningham and tight end Jake Ballard are missing from his arsenal, but Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz are still a very good duo.
The rushing attack added first-round rookie David Wilson to incumbent Ahmad Bradshaw. The defense gave up a lot of passing yards in the regular season before clamping down when needed in the playoffs. Getting pressure on Romo early and often should be on the agenda with the vaunted pass rush against Dallas’ line.
The Giants have several injuries of their own, but they proved they can find guys to step up in their Super Bowl run last year. Corner Prince Amukamara (ankle) is expected out Wednesday as is linebacker Michael Boley (hamstring) and others. Check the injury report for the latest.
This is always a great matchup and it’s kind of sad there will only be one regular season game between the teams remaining.
The Giants won and covered both meetings last year, including coming back from a 34-22 deficit with two TDs in the final 3:14 in Dallas. They are 5-1 ATS in the last six overall and the ‘over’ is 5-1 in those contests.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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09-04-12 09:34 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 11990
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Head Coaching Debuts
September 2, 2012
With the NFL season starting this week, there are a handful of brand new head coaches making their debut in Week 1. For the exception of Jeff Fisher (Rams), Romeo Crennel (Chiefs), and Mike Mularkey (Jaguars), who have previous head coaching experience in the NFL, we'll take a look at the four new head men and the uphill battle they face in the opener.
Chuck Pagano (Colts), Greg Schiano (Buccaneers), Joe Philbin (Dolphins), and Dennis Allen (Raiders) are all listed as underdogs in Week 1, while Tampa Bay and Oakland take on division foes at home. Pagano and Philbin are also faced with the tall task of starting on the road with rookie quarterbacks, as the likes of Carolina (2011) and Detroit (2009) lost on the highway with a first-year coach and a quarterback making his debut.
Since 2007, there have been 20 coaches making their professional debut, as these men are just 8-12 SU and 8-11-1 ATS. Six coaches were listed as favorites, with Mike Tomlin ('07) and Jim Harbaugh ('11) as the only two to win straight-up and cover the spread. We'll focus more on underdog history, since this is the situation in Week 1.
Look for low-scoring games with coaches making their debut as road underdogs, posting a 7-3-1 mark to the 'under' the last five seasons. Two of the three high-scoring affairs came in 2009, with Jim Schwartz when the Lions fell at New Orleans, 45-27 and Todd Haley's debut with Kansas City at Baltimore, a 38-24 setback. The third 'over' in this 11-game sample occurred last September when the Panthers lost in a shootout at Arizona, but two of these three 'overs' happened with a top pick under center (Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford).
The Bucs and Raiders are short home 'dogs, as teams in this situation since 2007 are just 2-2 SU/ATS. The two victories came in 2008 with clubs that ended up making the postseason as Atlanta and Baltimore both came out with wins, while rookie quarterbacks made the start. Tampa Bay and Oakland aren't in that situation as Josh Freeman and Carson Palmer return as starting quarterbacks, respectively.
The Colts finished 4-1 ATS last season when receiving at least nine points, as Indianapolis heads to Chicago in Week 1. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay was the worst ATS team in the final 10 games of last season, cashing just once, while its last victory came at home against Tampa Bay in October 2011.
Miami begins this campaign with eighth overall pick Ryan Tannehill starting under center, even though Matt Moore won six of the final nine games for the Dolphins last season. The Dolphins have never beaten the Texans in six lifetime meetings, including three losses by three points or less at Reliant Stadium.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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09-04-12 09:37 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 11990
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NFL
Week 1
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Tale of the tape: Cowboys at Giants
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Take a quick glance at the tale of the tape for Wednesday night’s NFC East showdown between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants:
Offense
The Cowboys’ offense will be seeking revenge after a disappointing 2011 campaign that saw Dallas drop both games to New York, including a devastating loss in Week 17. Tight end Jason Witten is undergoing a CT scan on his spleen Tuesday to determine his availability for the season opener. The seven-time Pro Bowler has said he’s ready to go and will suit up if he’s cleared by doctors. Quarterback Tony Romo still has two lethal weapons at wide receiver in Dez Bryant and Miles Austin to throw the ball to if Witten remains sidelined.
It’s no secret the Giants’ offense revolves around quarterback Eli Manning. The two-time Super Bowl champion is a year removed from throwing almost 5,000 yards and recording 29 touchdowns passes. The big question on Wednesday will revolve around the health and effectiveness of his favorite target Hakeem Nicks. The wideout underwent surgery to repair a broken toe in May and is still experiencing discomfort during practice.
Edge: Cowboys
Defense
The Cowboys will debut a new, beefed up secondary against the Giants. Dallas signed coveted free-agent cornerback Brandon Carr in the offseason and also selected the top corner in this year’s draft, Morris Claiborne. Mike Jenkins, a 2009 Pro Bowl cornerback, will be a game-time decision as he continues to recover from a shoulder injury that has kept him off the field for the entire preseason.
The Giants are nursing all kinds of injuries on defense. Cornerback Terrell Thomas was placed on season-ending IR and Prince Amukamara is doubtful with an ankle injury. The Cowboys will be looking to exploit the depleted Giants secondary, but Justin Tuck and Jason-Pierre Paul should still be able to shut down the running game and get pressure on Romo.
Edge: Giants
Special teams
Cowboys coach Jason Garrett has said Dez Bryant is still in the mix to return punts in the opener, but the team has yet to finalize its kick and punt returners. Bryant was ineffective last season, averaging 6.7 yards per return.
The Giants don’t have an overly impressive return game, but kicker Lawrence Tynes was perfect in the preseason, nailing all eight of his field goal attempts and punter Steve Weatherford unleashed two hulking 55-plus yard punts last week against New England.
Edge: Giants
Word on the street
“The offensive line we have is fairly experienced. They’ve played a lot of games in this league. We’re going to put a plan together and we’re going to go play football ... So we’re excited to see them play against a really, really formidable defensive line the Giants have. It’ll be a great challenge for us and we’re excited about it.” Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett on the team's five starting linemen that have yet to take a snap in tandem during the preseason because of injuries.
"Michael (Coe) can run, he is very fast. Michael is physical and is not afraid. And Michael has a very strong mentality. If he doesn't have success on a play, we can chew his (rear) out and he'll come back and make a play for you. So I like his mental makeup also." Giants defensive coordinator Perry Fewell on Michael Coe's ability to defend Miles Austin and Dez Bryant. Coe will start at corner in place of the injured Prince Amukamara.
Covers Consensus: 61 percent of contest players like New York -4.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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09-04-12 09:41 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 11990
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NFL
Week 1
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Cowboys at Giants: What bettors need to know
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Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-4, 46)
THE STORY: The New York Giants begin the defense of their Super Bowl championship on Wednesday, when they open the 2012 season against the Dallas Cowboys. New York's 9-7 record was enough to win the mediocre NFC East last season, clinching the title with a 31-14 triumph over Dallas at home in Week 17. The Giants rolled past Atlanta and upset the 15-1 Packers in Green Bay before needing overtime to top San Francisco in the conference championship game.
For the second time in five years, New York defeated New England in the Super Bowl, earning its fourth league championship. That gives Dallas even more incentive to take down its hated division rival in the season opener.
The Cowboys, who were a disappointing 8-8 last year, have not had much success against the Giants of late, losing five of their last six meetings. New York has eclipsed the 30-point mark in each of its last six victories in the all-time series.
Officiating could be a factor as replacement officials will be used to start the season for the second time in 12 years. The league locked out its regular officials in June, and a new agreement with the referees union has yet to be reached.
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.
LINE: Giants -4. O/U: 46. Oddsmakers opened the defending Super Bowl champs as 3-point favorites back in April. The spread has jump a point at most books and the total has also moved from 47 to 46 points.
ABOUT THE COWBOYS: The injury-riddled receiving corps appears to be rounding into shape. Dez Bryant sat out the final two preseason games with right knee tendinitis while Miles Austin didn't play at all after having hamstring problems last season and in training camp. Both are expected to be ready for the Giants. Tight end Jason Witten, who suffered a lacerated spleen in the preseason opener on Aug. 13, practiced in pads Saturday for the first time since the injury and hopes to be medically cleared for Wednesday's contest. As a precaution, Dallas claimed tight end Colin Cochart off waivers from Cincinnati and released third-string quarterback Stephen McGee.
ABOUT THE GIANTS: With a second Super Bowl ring on his hand, Eli Manning enters the year with more confidence than ever before. That also is because of a trio of receivers in Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Domenik Hixon that arguably is the best in the league. Nicks is returning from offseason foot surgery and sat out practice Sunday but insisted he will play. New York also added talented tight end Martellus Bennett, whose growth was stunted in Dallas as he spent four seasons behind Witten. Linebacker Michael Boley, who missed the entire preseason with a strained hamstring, practiced for the first time Saturday and hopes to be on the field against the Cowboys.
TRENDS:
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Over is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings in New York.
* Cowboys are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight meetings in New York.
* Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. The Cowboys own the league's best winning percentage in season openers with a .663 mark (34-17-1). The Giants also are among the leaders at .592 (49-33-5).
2. New York is five victories away from becoming the third team in NFL history to reach 650 wins. It will join Chicago (712) and Green Bay (679) in the elite group.
3. Witten, who has missed just one game in his career, owns the second-longest consecutive games streak among active TEs at 139 contests. He sat out a game as a rookie in 2003 due to a broken jaw.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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09-04-12 09:42 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 11990
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Where the action is: NFL Week 1's biggest line moves
Tracking line moves during Week 1 of the NFL season is a different animal than any other week on the schedule.
Most games have had spreads available since the spring and have been influenced by a summer’s worth of stories, injuries and action.
With the 2012 NFL season finally kicking off this week, we dissect the biggest line moves of Week 1 with help of Mike Colbert, race and sportsbook director for Cantor Gaming.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (Open: Arizona -1, Currently: Seattle -3)
Arizona opened as a slight home favorite but its issues nailing down a starting QB during the preseason pushed a lot of money towards Seattle. Football bettors are banking on the Seahawks, even though they're going with rookie QB Russell Wilson under center for Week 1.
“We’ve taken a boatload of money on Seattle. It’s one of our biggest decisions,” Colbert told Covers. “The Seahawks are going with Wilson, which I think is a good decision but it’s also a question mark. We’re not quite at -3 yet. I don’t think we’ll get there but if we do, people will start buying back on Arizona.”
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (Open: New York -6, Currently: New York -3)
A poor performance from New York in the preseason and a growing buzz around Buffalo has sliced this Week 1 spread in half. Cantor’s Las Vegas books opened with the Jets -5.5 and have been bet all the way down to a field goal. And Colbert doesn’t see it stopping there.
“The Bills are one of the sexy teams to start the year,” he says. “They have one of the best defensive lines out there. They’re really good up front. A lot of this depends on (QB Ryan) Fitzpatrick and how he plays. You’re going to see 2.5 on this one. Then you’ll get some buyback on the Jets.”
Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans (Open: Houston -7, Currently: Houston -11.5)
According to Colbert, this is the biggest decision in terms of one-sided action the favorite for Cantor in Week 1. They opened Houston at -6.5 back in the spring and didn’t take any serious money until the line moved to -9.5.
“It’s all Texans,” says Colbert, who currently has Houston -11. “A lot of this has to do with the Dolphins' quarterback situation, going with (rookie QB Ryan) Tannehill. Some smart guys think Miami is willing to give away a few wins just to build him up and give him time.”
Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (Open: New Orleans -11, Currently: New Orleans -9)
In the wake of "Bounty Gate", football bettors have been slowly fading the Saints for their Week 1 date against the Redskins and rookie sensation Robert Griffin III. Colbert says there are more bets riding on the dog and understands why.
“I’m not really high on the Saints and I think it’ll hurt them not having (suspended head coach Sean) Payton on the sidelines,” he says. “We’ll know right away what kind of team the Saints are going to be this year. I think 9.5 or 10 points is too many.”
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (Open: Denver -3, Currently: Pick)
Cantor’s books have gone up and down with this Week 1 spread. They opened Denver -1 and went to Pittsburgh -1 then to Denver -2.5 before settling at Denver -1 again. Some online books are dealing this Sunday Night Football showdown as a pick’em.
“This is a revenge game for the Steelers but they're without James Harrison and Ryan Clark has the sickle cell issue, Mendenhall is hurt. I kind of like Denver,” says Colbert. “This game has been bet pretty even so far but I could see it moving slightly to Denver -2.5.”
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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09-04-12 09:44 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 11990
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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 1
Wednesday
Cowboys @ Giants— Defending Super Bowl champs are 9-1-2 vs spread in their next season’s opener last 12 years (12-0 SU). Giants won last four home openers; since ’90, they’re 10-4 vs spread as favorite in home openers, but just 12-18-1 vs spread in last 31 games as a home favorite. Dallas owner Jones was mouthing off about “kicking the Giants’ ass; his Cowboys are 2-7 in last nine series games, losing 37-34/31-14 in LY’s meetings- they’ve lost three of last four visits here, losing by 21-7-17 points, but are 8-4 vs spread in last dozen games as road underdogs. Dallas is opening on road for fifth year in row. 14-8 vs spread in last 22 road openers, losing last two, by 6-3 points. 12 of their last 15 road openers went over total, as did four of Big Blue’s last five home openers. Average total in last six series games is 61.
Sunday
Colts @ Bears— Indy has new coach, new QB; they’re glorified expansion team, starting fresh, so they’re trends don’t mean as much, but they did cover four of five LY as double digit underdogs. Colts lost 34-24/34-7 in last two road openers, after having won nine of previous ten. Teams with rookie QBs figure to struggle on foreign soil early on. Chicago won 29-13 at Indy in last meeting in ’08, teams’ only meeting since Colts beat Bears in Super Bowl XLI. Since ’96, underdogs are 13-3 vs spread in Chicago’s home openers, with Bears just 2-8 vs spread as favorite; they’ve won six of last seven home openers, allowing 13.3 ppg last three years. Since 2007, Chicago is just 9-15-1 as home favorites, but they did cover last two tries when laying double digits. Five of Indy’s last seven road openers stayed under total.
Eagles @ Browns— Lot of commonality between coaching staffs; been rough summer off field for Coach Reid. Philly is just 4-6 as road favorite last two years, with six of 11 road wins by 7 or less points. Since being reborn in 1999, Browns are 1-12 in home openers, 1-11-1 vs spread; they were favored/even in five of the 12 losses- they’re 0-7 vs spread in last seven home openers, with under 8-4 in their last 12. 12 of those 13 home openers came in Week 1. Cleveland is 3-6 vs spread in last nine games as home underdog; they’re 3-7-2 vs spread v NFC teams last three years. Philly are 3-0 vs new Browns, scoring 35-34-30 points; they’ve won last three road openers, scoring 31+ points in last four. Since ’88, Philly is 14-8 vs spread in road openers; 6-4 as favorite, 8-4 as dog. Over is 3-0-1 in their last four road openers. Teams met in preseason two weeks ago, but Vick didn’t play.
Bills @ Jets— How will Gang Green utilize Tebow? How will Sanchez react if he struggles early and gets pulled? Fickle home folks could turn ugly if Jets stumble early vs Buffalo squad that lost last five games to Jets by average score of 30-14, losing last two visits here, 38-7/28-24. Bills are 7-3 in last ten tries as road dogs in road openers; since 2000, they’re 3-0 as Week 1 road dog. Buffalo is 12-6 as road underdogs in divisional games last six years. Six of their last eight road openers stayed under the total. Over last 20 years, Jets are 2-8 vs spread as favorite in home opener, losing 14 of 20 (2-1 last three years). Three of their last four home openers stayed under total. Jets covered five of last six season openers; since 2007, they’re 2-9-1 vs spread as a home favorite in divisional games. Bills trading for Tarvaris Jackson raised some eyebrows.
Redskins @ Saints— Lot of unusual variables here. How will Saints function without Payton/Vitt on sidelines? Who will make key 4th down calls? Redskins using rookie QB in hostile environment; tough way to start. Washington won its last six visits to New Orleans, with last visit in ’06. Road team won six of last seven series games. New Orleans won four in row and 11 of last 14 home openers, scoring 28.3 ppg in last four; they’re 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine as favorite in home openers, with 11 of last 15 staying under total. New Orleans won last five Sunday openers. Washington lost nine of last 12 road openers, losing last four, scoring 14 ppg. 1-5 vs spread in last six as underdog. Under is 8-3-1 in Washington’s last dozen road openers. Since ’07, Redskins are 18-12-3 as road underdogs. Since ’08, Saints are 19-9-1 as a home favorite.
Patriots @ Titans— Since 1998, Super Bowl losers are 0-13 vs spread (2-11 SU) in their next season’s opener. Teams’ first meeting since Patriots waxed Tennessee 59-0 on snowy October day in Foxboro three years ago, their fourth straight series win. Tennessee covered seven of last ten home openers, four of last five that were in Week 1; they’re 7-0 vs spread last seven times they were underdog in home opener, with last non-cover 34-17 (+5) vs Steelers in ’95. Patriots won last eight season openers (4-3-1 vs spread); they’re 6-6 in last dozen road openers, 1-2 in last three; since ’92, they’re 1-11 in road openers if they score 21 or less points, 7-1 if they score 23+. Four of their last six road openers went over total. Titans’ last three home openers went over total. Pats split two visits here, losing 24-7 in ’02, winning 40-23 in ’06.
Jaguars @ Vikings— New owner/coach/QB for Jaguars, who lost last four road openers (1-3 vs spread) by average score of 25-9, losing 38-13/32-3 in Week 2 road openers last two years. In their history, are solid 7-4 vs spread as underdog in road openers. Six of their last eight road openers stayed under total. First time in five years Vikings are opening season at home; Minnesota lost three of last four home openers, with all four decided by four or less points; since ’99, they’re 3-8 vs spread as favorite in home openers. You're reading ***************.com. Vikings won three of four series games, with none of four decided by less than 11 points. Only Jaguar win was 33-3 here in ’01. Since ’88, under is 16-7-1 in Metrodome home openers.
Dolphins @ Texans— High expectations in Houston after their first playoff appearance LY; they’re 6-0 vs Dolphins, with all three wins here by 3 or less points- only one of the six wins is by more than 7 points. Rookie QB gets the nod for Miami, which lost seven of last eight road openers (1-5-1 vs spread in last seven), with only win at Buffalo in ’10. Once-proud Fish are 0-4-1 vs spread in last five games as underdog in road opener. Texans won 34-24/34-7 in last two home openers, after losing six of first eight in franchise history; they’re 2-2 as Week 1 home favorite. Five of their last seven home openers stayed under total. Houston allowed 24+ points in seven of last nine home openers. Under is 13-5 in Miami’s last 18 road openers.
Rams @ Lions— Third offense in three years for young QB Bradford; main question is can rebuilt OL keep him on his feet? Rams are 15-65 last five years, worst 5-year stretch in NFL history; they hired former Titan HC Fisher to right ship. His DC in Tennessee was current Lion HC Schwartz, so team will play similar defenses. St Louis lost last ten road openers (1-9 vs spread) by average score of 26-12, with five of last six staying under total. Last time Rams won season opener was 18-10 home win (+3.5) over Denver in 2006. Detroit is 14-6-1 vs spread in last 21 home openers, but lost three of last four (32-35/48-3 L2 years). First time in six years they’re opening season at home. Three of last four home openers went over. Rams are 3-2 in last five series games; ’09 Rams’ only win came here, 17-10. ’10 Rams lost 44-10 here.
Falcons @ Chiefs— Home side won five of last six series games, all decided by 11+ points; Falcons have never won here, losing 38-10/14-3/56-10 (’04). Atlanta whupped KC 38-14 at home in last meeting (’08). Chiefs started 0-1 five of last six years. Chiefs are 4-8 in last dozen home openers, scoring 13 or less points in five of last six. KC is 2-6-1 vs spread last nine games where they were favored in a home opener. Atlanta lost last five road openers, scoring average of 8.6 ppg; they even lost at Pittsburgh one year when Big Ben was suspended. Since ’88, they’re 0-4 as favorite in road openers. You're reading ***************.com. Seven of last eight road openers stayed under total; under is 16-2-1 in Chiefs’ last 19 home openers.
49ers @ Packers—Green Bay won five in row, 13 of last 14 games vs 49ers, with only loss in ’98 playoff game; SF lost last eight visits here, with five of eight by 10+ points. Pack won/covered last five home openers, by average score of 27-18. This will be 13th time in 16 years they’re at home in Week 1.. Niners *** four of last five road openers, covered six of last eight; they’re 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine tries as road dog in road opener. Since ’94, they’re 2-6 vs spread in Week 1 road games. Four of Pack’s last six home openers stayed under; under is 3-1-1 in 49ers’ last five road openers. Niners were +28 in turnovers in magical ’11 run; they made lot of own breaks, but you’re not +28 without few bounces going your way—will that continue?
Panthers @ Buccaneers— Curious to see how Newton does with full off-season program under his belt; teams didn’t have that last season, but he was still terrific as rookie, beating Bucs 38-19/48-16 in two meetings. Carolina lost last three road openers, allowing 28-31-28 points; they failed to cover last three as dog in road openers, after covering nine of first 10 (9-4 as dog overall in road openers). Tampa Bay lost five of last six season openers; since ’88, they’re 4-6 vs spread as dogs in home openers, 7-6-1 as favorite. Bucs are 4-6 in last ten home openers; over is 3-1-1 in last five, after 12 of previous 15 stayed under. Carolina’s last four road openers went over the total. Oddly, Carolina won seven of last nine visits here.
Seahawks @ Cardinals— Home side won four of last five series games; Seattle lost five of last six visits here, with losses by 6-3-13-11-3 points. Since ’00, Hawks are 4-8 in road openers, allowing 6-0-7-6 points in wins; they lost last five road openers (0-6 vs spread in last six) by average score of 29-14. Home team won their last five season openers. You're reading ***************.com, America's favorite website. Arizona has been better in home openers since they got the dome; winning five of last six home openers, but since ’88, are still just 3-10 vs spread as favorite in home openers, with five of last six going over total. Under is 19-5 in Arizona’s last 24 home openers, but 2-3 in last five.
Steelers @ Broncos— Denver KO’d Steelers from playoffs 29-23 with OT TD last January; now they’ve upgraded from Tebow to Manning at QB. Fox lost eight of his last nine home openers; before he got to Denver, Broncos had won 11 straight Mile High openers (8-3 vs spread). Manning won seven of last eight home openers, covering six of last 10 as favorite. Over is 3-1-1 in Denver’s last five home openers. Pittsburgh is just 4-8 in last 12 road openers, 4-3 in last seven, scoring average of just 10 ppg in last five, with four of those five staying under total- they scored 14 or less points in four of those five games. New OC Haley said to have installed more run-happy offense, which may explain why Big Ben didn’t get his shoulder fixed. Since ’88, they’re 4-5 in Week 1 openers on road. Steelers are 5-10-1 all-time in Denver, 3-4 vs Broncos in playoffs.
Monday
Bengals @ Ravens— Baltimore won last seven home openers (5-2 vs spread), with none of wins by less than seven points; since 1988, they’re 8-3 vs spread in Week 1 home games. Ravens covered four of last five home openers vs divisional opponent. Cincinnati is 4-3 in last seven road openers; they were dog in three of four wins, favored in two of three losses (underdogs covered five of their last six road openers). Since ’88, are 6-5 vs spread as Week 1 underdog. Four of Bengals’ last five road openers went over total; over is 5-1-1 in Ravens’ last seven home openers, but seven of last nine series games had totals of 37 or less. Ravens won both meetings LY, 31-24/24-16, but are still just 6-9 in last 15 series games, albeit 3-1 in last four played here.
Chargers @ Raiders—Allen is fourth head coach in five years for Oakland, but Palmer had full camp and should be better this year under center. Raiders won three of last four series games after losing 13 in row to Bolts before that. San Diego won seven of last eight visits here, with only loss 35-27 in ’10. Chargers lost four of last five road openers, allowing average of 30.6 ppg, giving up 35+ points in three of the four losses; they’re 4-9 vs spread last 13 times road opener was in Week 1. Over is 13-7-1 in San Diego’s last 21 road openers. Raiders lost last four times they opened season at home, with three losses by 15+ points- they’re 9-5 in last 14 home openers, winning last two after losing previous seven. Four of their last five home openers went over the total. Average total in last four series games is 52.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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09-04-12 09:46 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 11990
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NFL
Short Sheet
Week 1
Wednesday, September 5, 2012
Dallas at NY Giants, 8:30 ET NBC
Dallas: 0-6 ATS vs. division opponents
NY Giants: 26-12 Over in the first two weeks of the season
Sunday, September 9, 2012
Indianapolis at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Indianapolis: 13-4 Over as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points
Chicago: 5-11 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points
Philadelphia at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Philadelphia: 7-13 ATS vs. AFC North opponents
Cleveland: 11-2 Under playing on grass fields
Buffalo at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 9-2 Over as an underdog
NY Jets: 5-15 ATS at home in the first two weeks of the season
Washington at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
Washington: 11-3 Under as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points
New Orleans: 9-0 ATS as a home favorite
New England at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
New England: 20-7 Over vs. conference opponents
Tennessee: 8-3 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
Jacksonville at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 5-1 Under in September
Minnesota: 0-8 ATS with a total of 35.5 to 42 points
Miami at Houston, 1:00 ET
Miami: 12-4 Under last season
Houston: 11-3 ATS playing on grass fields
St. Louis at Detroit, 1:00 ET
St. Louis: 0-6 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points
Detroit: 11-3 ATS in the first half of the season
Atlanta at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 18-9 Under as a road favorite of 3 points or less
Kansas City: 27-12 ATS at home vs. non-conference opponents
(TC) San Francisco at Green Bay, 4:25 ET
San Francisco: 6-0 ATS in the first half of the season
Green Bay: 8-1 Over in home games
(TC) Carolina at Tampa Bay, 4:25 ET
Carolina: 10-2 Over vs. conference opponents
Tampa Bay: 4-12 ATS last season
(TC) Seattle at Arizona, 4:25 ET
Seattle: 2-7 ATS away with a total of 38.5 to 42 points
Arizona: 6-0 Over at home in the first half of the season
Pittsburgh at Denver, 8:25 ET NBC
Pittsburgh: 5-1 Under as a road underdog
Denver: 1-5 ATS as a home favorite
Monday, September 10, 2012
Cincinnati at Baltimore, 7:00 ET ESPN
Cincinnati: 11-1 Over vs. conference opponents
Baltimore: 6-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less
San Diego at Oakland, 10:15 ET ESPN
San Diego: 23-10 ATS away with a total of 45.5+ points
Oakland: 13-28 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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09-04-12 09:48 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
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Posts: 11990
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Super trends return for Week 1
September 4, 2012
It's been seven seasons since a team has repeated as Super Bowl champions and that's the task at hand in 2012 for the New York Giants. On Wednesday, the club will kick off the season at home against the Dallas Cowboys.
Even though some clubs play poorly as the hunted rather than the hunted, the Super Bowl champs haven't fallen too quickly from the pedestal, especially in their Week 1 openers!
Super Bowl Winner - Week 1 History (2000-2011)
Year SB Winner Opponent Result
2011 Green Bay (-4.5) New Orleans 42-34 (Cover)
2010 New Orleans (-4.5) Minnesota 14-9 (Cover)
2009 Pittsburgh (-5) Tennessee 13-10 (Non-Cover)
2008 N.Y. Giants (-4) Washington 16-7 (Cover)
2007 Indianapolis (-5) New Orleans 41-10 (Cover)
2006 Pittsburgh (-7.5) Miami 28-17 (Cover)
2005 New England (-7.5) Oakland 30-20 (Cover)
2004 New England (-3) Indianapolis 27-24 (Push)
2003 Tampa Bay (+3) Philadelphia 17-0 (Cover)
2002 New England (PK) Pittsburgh 30-14 (Cover)
2001 Baltimore (-10) Chicago 17-6 (Cover)
2000 St. Louis (-7) Denver 41-36 (Non-Cover)
Looking at the above table, bettors can see that the Super Bowl champion has won its opener the last 12 seasons, which might not come as a big surprise to you since they're usually at home and listed as a favorite as well. What might impress you is the champion's mark against the spread over this stretch, which stands at 9-2-1 (82%).
The last champion to lose its Week 1 opener the following season was Denver, which occurred in 1999. The Broncos defeated Atlanta 34-19 in Super Bowl XXXIII and were humbled 38-21 by Miami as 5 ½-point home favorites.
Will the G-Men keep the streak alive?
The Giants opened as three-point favorites over the Cowboys and the line has jumped to 3 ½ and even 4 at some major offshore outfits. If you're afraid to lay the points, you can take New York on the money-line, which is listed as high as minus-200 (Bet $100 to win $50).
New York swept the regular season series against Dallas last year and has won five of the last six encounters against their NFC East rival. Also, the Giants have gone 6-2 straight up in their eight home openers under head coach Tom Coughlin.
If you are looking to buck the trend and back the Cowboys, you could point to familiarity. Dallas has opened its regular season on the road in eight of the past 10 seasons. The Cowboys came up short in last year's opener to the Jets (24-27) in a game they easily could've won. Dallas led 24-10 in the fourth quarter but key turnovers and a late special teams touchdown sealed their fate. Despite the tough loss, the 'Boys did manage to cover as six-point road underdogs.
According to the latest betting trends at Sportsbook.ag, over 80% of the action for Wednesday's opener is on the Giants.
Another team that's receiving heavy public attention in Week 1 is New England. The Patriots are hoping to rebound in 2012 after losing to the aforementioned Giants in last year's Super Bowl.
New England is favored to win the AFC by the oddsmakers but success might not happen right away, especially if the Super Bowl loser trend continues in Week 1. The situation has been just as strong as the above angle that focuses on New York and sometimes more valuable not just for the opening week but the entire season.
Super Bowl Loser - Week 1 History (1999-2011)
Year Loser Opponent Line Result
2011 Pittsburgh at Baltimore +1 Loss 7-35
2010 Indianapolis at Houston -2.5 Loss 24-34
2009 Arizona vs. San Francisco -6.5 Loss 16-20
2008 New England vs. Kansas City -16 Win 17-10 (Non-Cover)
2007 Chicago at San Diego +6 Loss 3-14
2006 Seattle at Detroit -6 Win 9-6 (Non-Cover)
2005 Philadelphia at Atlanta -1 Loss 10-14
2004 Carolina vs. Green Bay -3 Loss 14-24
2003 Oakland at Tennessee +3 Loss 20-25
2002 St. Louis at Denver -3 Loss 16-23
2001 N.Y. Giants vs. San Francisco +3 Loss 13-16
2000 Tennessee at Buffalo PK Loss 13-16
1999 Atlanta at Minnesota +4 Loss 14-17 (Cover)
Gamblers have watched the loser of the last year's Super Bowl go 2-11 SU and 1-11-1 ATS in Week 1 over the past 13 seasons. New England will head to Tennessee on Sunday and the Patriots are listed as six-point road favorites at most betting shops. The Pats have gone 9-3 in Week 1 openers since Bill Belichick took over the coaching duties in New England. Last year, the club opened the season in South Florida and the team blasted Miami 38-24 as seven-point favorites in wire-to-wire fashion.
The last time the Titans faced the Patriots came in 2009 when they were embarrassed 59-0 in a blizzard at Foxboro. Even though the Titans aren't considered contenders, the team did go 9-7 at home last season and that included a 5-3 mark in Nashville.
And if you delve into the numbers further, two of the three losses at home were by 7 or less. We mention that number because the Patriots will most likely be laying 7 or more come this Sunday afternoon.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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09-05-12 05:10 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 11990
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Tech Trends - Week 1
September 5, 2012
Sunday, Sept. 9 - All games to start at 1:00 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
Indy at Chicago Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano debuts for Indy. Lovie "over" 11-3 last 14 at Soldier Field. "Over," based on Lovie home "totals" trends.
Philly at Cleveland Andy Reid only 4-6 as road chalk the past two years but is 14-9 vs. line overall away the past three seasons. Pat Shurmur just 2-6 vs. line at home with Brownies LY and Cleveland 2-10 vs points last 12 as host since mid 2010. Browns also "under" 14-6-1 last 21 since late 2010, and Birds "under" 5-3 away LY. Eagles and "under", based on team and "totals" trends.
Buffalo at New York Bills have lost last five SU vs. Jets and are just 1-4 vs. number in those games. Chan Gailey closed 2011 on 2-7 spread run and Bills just 2-6-1 against spread their last nine on road. Jets "over" 28-12 last 40 since late 2009. "Over" and slight to Jets, based on "totals" and series trends.
Washington at New Orleans Saints were 13-5 vs. number LY and a spotless 9-0 against spread as home chalk. Shanahan "under" 12-3 last 15 away, but Saints were 6-3 "over" at home LY. Saints, based on team trends.
New England at Tenn Belichick "over" 28-10 last 38 since late in 2009 season, though Titans "under" 10-6 for Munchak LY. Belichick also 10-3 vs. spread last 13 as visitor. "Over" and slight to Patriots, based on "totals" and team trends.
Jacksonville at Minnesota Mularkey Jags debut. Vikes only 3-8-1 vs. line last 12 as host and 9-17-1 against number last 27 on board overall. Vikes also "over" 8-2 last 10 as host. Jags only 4-9 as dog LY and were "under" 5-11 in 2011 as well. slight to Jags, based on extended Vike spread woes.
Miami at Houston Looks bad for Miami after winless and cover-less preseason. Dolphins were 8-1-1 vs. line last 10 in 2011 but now Philbin debuts as HC. Kubiak 13-5 vs. line as year ago (10-2 last 12) and now 8-2 last 10 on board at Reliant Stadium. Texans, based on recent Kubiak win trends.
St. Louis at Detroit Lions faded late last year, just 3-9 their last 12 on the board after 17-3-1 stretch vs. spread previously. Lions are 8-4-2 as chalk since 2010, however. Fisher Rams debut, nowhere to go but up for St. Louis after 2-14 SU and 3-13 spread marks LY. Lions also "over" 23-12-2 last 37 since late in 2009 campaign. "Over", based on extended Lions "totals" trends.
Atlanta at Kansas City Falcs "under' 6-3 on road LY, Chiefs "under" 12-4 in 2011 and "under" 17-5 last 22 since late 2010. Chiefs also 6-0 as home dog the past two years. "Under" and Chiefs, based on "totals" and team trends.
Sunday, Sept. 9 - All games to start at 4:25 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
San Fran at Green Bay Harbaugh failed to cover his last four on the road LY but overall was 12-5-1 vs. line in 2011. SF 4-1-1 as dog LY. Pack 11-3 vs. line last 14 at Lambeau and is "over" 14-6 last 20 overall. "Over" and slight to Pack, based on 'totals" and team trends.
Carolina at Tampa Bay Schiano TB debut. Cam won and covered both vs. Bucs LY, both of those "over" as well. Cam "over" 10-5-1 LY, Bucs "over" 10-6 in 2011. Bucs lost last 10 SU last year and were 1-9 vs. line in those games. "Over" and slight to Panthers, based on "totals" and team trends.
Seattle at Arizona Doesn't mean much, but note Seattle 4-0 SU and vs. line in preseason while Cards 0-5 vs. points in exhibition play. Pete Carroll "over" 22-11-1 the past two seasons and is 3-1 SU and vs. spread against Whisenhunt that span. Cards "over" 7-2-1 last 10 in desert. "Over" and Seahawks, based on "totals" and team trends.
Sunday, Sept. 9 - NBC, 8:25 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
Pittsburgh at Denver Peyton Manning Denver debut, also quick rematch from LY's Tebow-flavored playoff thriller won by Denver in OT, 29-23. Broncos "over" 27-12 last 39 since late 2009, Steel "over' 5-4-1 last 10 away from Heinz Field. Steel just 2-8 vs. points last 10 away from home, and Tomlin just 1-5 last 6 as dog since early 2010. "Over" and Broncos, based on "totals" and recent Tomlin road trends.
Monday, Sept. 10 - ESPN, 7:00 & 10:15 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
Cinny at Baltimore Marvin Lewis 18-9-1 as dog since late in 2008 season. Bengals also 4-1-1 vs. line last six in series although Ravens won both meetings SU last season. "Unders" 6-3 last nine in series, although Cincy "over" 10-6-1 LY. Bengals, based series and Lewis dog trends.
San Diego at Oakland Dennis Allen Oakland debut. Raiders have covered five of last six in series although Bolts at one time had a seven-game win and cover streak at Coliseum between 2002-08 in what for many years was a road-oriented rivalry. Norv 4-7 as road chalk last two years. Raiders, based on recent series and Norv trends.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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09-05-12 05:21 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 11990
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Football lines that make you go hmmm...
If the Week 2 college football schedule wasn’t already littered enough with puzzling pointspreads, football fans get their first taste of NFL action and a few more head scratchers.
Each week, we take a quick glance at the football odds making bettors go “hmmmm…”, whether it be the opening lines, early action or mid-week adjustments:
NCAAF
UCF Knights at Ohio State Buckeyes (-17.5, 50.5)
This Week 2 matchup pits two programs under NCAA lock and key. Both UCF and OSU are suffering through bowl bans for underhanded dealings but, despite the lack of a postseason prize, it would appear that keeping up appearances is more important to the Buckeyes and new head coach Urban Meyer.
This spread opened as low as -17 OSU online and is sitting as high as -18 at the LVH in Las Vegas. The Knights are a quality C-USA squad, but last week’s one-sided win over Akron was more the Zips’ fault than anything – three fumbles, two inside their own 10-yard line.
Duke Blue Devils at Stanford Cardinal (-14, 58.5)
This battle of brains may be the Super Bowl of the debate team calendar but the ACC-vs. Pac-12 football contest is the “Late Night Degenerate Special” in Week 2, with a 10:30 p.m. ET kickoff. The Cardinal escaped with a “W” and little else versus San Jose State last Friday, but is still an elite program and will tighten the bolts following the Week 1 scare.
The Blue Devils were impressive – for Duke standards – in a blowout win over FIU. However, they did allow Golden Panthers RB Kedrick Rhodes to rumble for 130 yards and a score and now face Stanford RB Stepfan Taylor. Duke was second last in rushing defense in the ACC last year, giving up 180.67 yards per game on the ground.
NFL
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-5.5, 45)
The Niners were the sexy offseason pick to win the Super Bowl this summer, marching all the way to the top of the futures board at some Las Vegas books. So why would San Francisco be a 5.5-point pup in Green Bay for Week 1?
Sure, the Packers are still the Packers and Lambeau is Lambeau. But, in a battle of Super Bowl faves, wouldn’t you expect a tighter spread than touchdown books were giving the 49ers when this game opened back in the spring? This line has come down from that opening but still seems a little hefty, which is why some markets are dealing Green Bay -5 at plus money.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (-1, 44.5)
Depending on where you wager, this spread has been up and down more than Prince Harry’s pants during a Vegas bender. At certain Nevada books, the line moved all the way to Steelers -1 before going back to Denver -2.5. Some online books have it tagged as a pick’em.
Pittsburgh is missing some key cogs on defense and despite this being a “revenge” game following last year’s postseason shocker, the Broncos are very much a different team with Peyton Manning calling the shots at the line. Denver has moved up the futures board in a hurry this offseason but it appears that respect isn’t translating to Week 1’s odds.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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09-05-12 05:24 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
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Posts: 11990
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Luck, Indianapolis Colts Open Season At Chicago Bears
The Andrew Luck era gets underway for real on Sunday when the Indianapolis Colts visit the Chicago Bears in the Windy City.
The Don Best NFL odds screen has the Colts as 9½-point ‘dogs with a total of 43½. The latter is up a couple of points after opening at 41. This game from Soldier Field is part of the CBS local coverage at 1:00 p.m. (ET).
This is also a rematch of Super Bowl XLI in February 2007, won by Indianapolis (29-17). That was with Peyton Manning at quarterback, but the Colts decided to part ways after he missed all of last season (neck) and they were able to tank enough (2-14 straight up) to get Luck.
The Stanford product has made the quarterback change almost seamless. He has all the physical tools, including incredible poise and pocket awareness that far exceeds a normal 22-year-old.
Luck will have some offensive weapons in rookie tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. The former was his college teammate. Veteran receivers Reggie Wayne and Austin Collie also returned, with Wayne a surprise as a free agent. Collie can’t really be counted on with his concussion history.
Donald Brown (645 yards last year) is the featured back, but he’s nothing to get too excited about. That means more early pressure on Luck.
New head coach Chuck Pagano is the former defensive coordinator with Baltimore. He’s switched the ‘D’ over to the 3-4 that was so successful with the Ravens. The problem is that a lot of Indy’s best personnel are suited to the 4-3, like Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis who are now converted outside linebackers.
Both Freeney and Mathis could struggle early on in their new roles, with Mathis (shoulder) also questionable this week.
The Colts made an aggressive move by acquiring cornerback Vontae Davis from Miami for a second round pick. He’ll start next to Jerraud Powers in a good duo on paper, and the safeties aren’t bad either with Antoine Bethea and Tom Zbikowski.
However, going against this newly constructed Bears offense at home is a huge challenge.
Chicago started out last season at 7-3 SU, but limped down the stretch (1-5 SU) after quarterback Jay Cutler missed the final six games with a thumb injury. The backup combination of Caleb Hanie and Josh McCown simply couldn’t get it done, with Jason Campbell in that role this year.
Cutler is healthy now and looking forward to playing at home on Sunday. Chicago was 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in his home games last year, with the offense extremely potent at 31.3 PPG. The ‘over’ was 5-1 in those contests.
The 29-year-old Cutler is excited to be reunited with former Broncos teammate Brandon Marshall. He combines with rookie Alshon Jeffery to form a very solid 1-2 receiver punch. New offensive coordinator Mike Tice is known for running the ball and adding Michael Bush from Oakland to incumbent Matt Forte is another plus.
The Bears question marks come along the offensive line and having several key defensive players on the wrong side of 30.
Brian Urlacher (age 34) is one of those and he’s not on the injury report despite missing the whole preseason with a knee ailment.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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09-07-12 12:29 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
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Posts: 11990
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Saints Host Redskins In Intriguing Week 1 Matchup
Drew Brees and the Saints look to put bounty-gate behind in their season opener.
The New Orleans Saints try to put one of the most tumultuous offseasons in NFL history behind them when they host the Washington Redskins on Sunday afternoon.
Kickoff will come at 1:00 p.m. (ET) from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome as part of the FOX regional coverage. This is also the debut of Washington rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III.
There has been major line movement for this game on the Don Best Pro Odds screen. New Orleans opened as 9½-point favorites, but is now down to seven at most shops. The total has remained steady and sits at 50-50½ points.
New Orleans went 9-0 SU and ATS at home last year. The ‘over’ went 4-1 in the last five of those contests.
The Saints players, fans and management are still trying to wrap their minds around the bounty scandal that cost them coach Sean Payton and linebacker Jonathan Vilma for the year. Assistant head coach Joe Vitt coached through the final preseason game, but is now suspended for the first six of the regular season.
Aaron Kromer takes over as interim coach even though he has never been a head coach at the college or NFL level. The 45-year-old will rely heavily on offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael Jr. and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, but concerns on how they will function together is a big reason for the spread move.
New Orleans’ quarterback Drew Brees has always been under the gun, but even more so this season. He led the league’s top ranked offense in total yards (467.1 YPG) and most of the key pieces are back except receiver Robert Meachem and offensive guard Carl Nicks.
The defense struggled last year (368.4 YPG, ranked 24th) and lost cornerback Tracy Porter and linebacker Jo-Lonn Dunbar. Defensive end Will Smith is another bounty casualty for the first four games, although there is a small chance his suspension will be lifted in time for this game.
Injuries are also a concern for Spagnuolo in his first year with the team. Starting linebackers Curtis Lofton (ankle) and David Hawthorne (knee) are both questionable, in addition to cornerback Jabari Greer (groin). Lofton was signed from Atlanta to replace Vilma and should play.
Washington begins its third season under Mike Shanahan. The two-time Super Bowl champion coach with Denver is just 11-21 SU (15-15-2 ATS) with the Redskins. Shanahan did bring new hope to the franchise with the expensive draft trade-up to get Griffin, but the pressure is on to deliver wins fast.
Griffin had a solid preseason, 20-of-31 for 193 yards, two TDs and no picks. His athletic ability is unquestioned, but reading defenses in a regular season game is hard for any rookie and the Saints defense does fly to the ball much faster playing in the dome.
The just 22-year-old Griffin doesn’t have a great receiving core with Pierre Garcon, Josh Morgan and Leonard Hankerson on the outside and the fading Santana Moss in the slot. The running back situation is unsettled right now with Evan Royster and Roy Helu Jr. in the mix.
Shanahan needs to get a good year out of the defense after ranking 13th overall last season (339.8 YPG). The secondary is the biggest concern with safety Tanard Jackson suspended for the year and Brandon Meriweather out 2-4 games. Cornerback Josh Wilson (abdominal) is also questionable.
Going against Brees and the Saints passing offense is tough enough at full strength, so this is the key matchup of the game.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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09-07-12 12:31 AM |
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CNOTES
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Manning Begins Broncos Career Against Steelers
Ben Roethlisberger passed for over 4,000 yards during th 2011 season.
Quarterback Peyton Manning gets a tough first test in a Denver Broncos uniform in hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday Night Football.
Denver is getting a lot of respect on the Don Best NFL odds screen as 1½-point favorites, although it is down slightly from the -2 opening. The total is 44½. This is not surprisingly the prime-time game at 8:20 p.m. (ET) as NBC knows the ratings will be extra big for Manning’s debut.
These teams met in the playoffs last year with Denver getting a shocking 29-23 OT home win as 7½-point ‘dogs. Tim Tebow threw probably the most important pass he’ll ever make in his career, an 80-yard hookup with Demaryius Thomas on the first play of overtime.
That game was only eight months ago, but might as well be a lifetime. Tebow was jettisoned to the Jets as soon as the Broncos won the Manning sweepstakes. Manning will be making his first real pass since January 2011 after sitting out last year with a neck injury.
The now 36-year-old signal caller has looked good in preseason, but has diminished arm strength and reportedly is struggling throwing to his right. Coach John Fox will likely keep his throws down the first few games and feature the league’s top-ranked rushing attack from last year (164.5 YPG). Willis McGahee will be the featured back after almost reaching 1,200 yards.
When Manning does throw, he has a solid tandem in Thomas and Eric Decker. Manning always loved using Dallas Clark and other tight ends while with Indy, and Joel Dreessen and Jacob Tamme (former Manning teammate) will fill that role.
Fox is considered a very good defensive mind and he did get the ‘D’ to stiffen up in the second half last year. There is a new coordinator in Jack Del Rio after Dennis Allen left for Oakland, but the continuity should be fine. However, there are big questions at defensive tackle and linebacker D.J Williams is also suspended the first six games.
Pittsburgh is one of the most stable franchises in the NFL, but this offseason has seen some turmoil. The fiery Todd Haley has replaced Bruce Arians as offensive coordinator and it remains to be seen if Haley can get along with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.
The 30-year-old Roethlisberger threw for over 4,000 yards last year and is extremely feared for his ability to scramble and make plays down the field. However, explosive receiver Mike Wallace is still learning the new offense after a contract holdout and could struggle as a starter on Sunday.
The running game is also a question with Rashard Mendenhall likely out after recovering from knee surgery. Isaac Redman (ankle) should play despite being banged up, while Jonathan Dwyer will also get some carries. The offensive line has been shaky in recent years and there was another big blow with rookie guard David DeCastro (knee) possibly injured for the year.
The Steelers defense ranked first last year (271.8 YPG) under legendary coordinator Dick LeBeau. There are injury concerns with outside linebacker James Harrison and his backup Jason Worilds questionable and probable respectively with knee injuries.
Safety Ryan Clark is being held out with his sickle cell trait dangerous in the thin Denver air. Inside linebacker Larry Foote (ankle) is listed as questionable, but will probably play.
LeBeau has his work cut out for him this week, but he’s used to mixing and matching players. He will certainly put the pressure on Manning to see how his body responds to the layoff.
Pittsburgh looks like a dangerous ‘dog in this contest.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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09-07-12 12:33 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 11990
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September Records
September 5, 2012
When getting a gauge on the first month of the NFL season, there are several factors to consider. How long has each head coach been patrolling the sidelines? Do these clubs employ the same starting quarterback? Some of those questions can be answered when comparing teams and how they fare in the month of September.
Dating back to 2008, eleven squads have won at least eight games in September, while the Ravens and Giants each own 9-3 straight-up records. Baltimore and New Orleans each possess the highest success rate against the spread in this period as the Ravens are 9-3 ATS, while the Saints have compiled a solid 9-4 ATS mark. These teams are consistent at the quarterback position and have not had any significant coaching changes, but that will change in New Orleans this season with Sean Payton being suspended the entire season.
The worst teams in this time frame are not a surprise, as the Browns, Dolphins, and Rams are the least effective clubs in September. Cleveland managed two wins in three September contests last season (including one over Miami), but the Browns are just 4-8-1 ATS in the opening month since 2008. Miami put together a winless September in 2011, while posting a 3-9 SU and 3-8-1 ATS record the last four Septembers. Taking the prize for biggest September dud is St. Louis, who has won a grand total of one game in the last 13 opening month contests, while cashing just three times in this span.
Below is a list of each team with their September (SU/ATS) records from last season, 2008-2010, and their schedule for the month.
2012 SEPTEMBER BREAKDOWN
Category 2011 2008-10 Week
TEAM SU ATS SU ATS 1 2 3 4
ARZ 1-2 2-1 5-5 5-5 SEA @ NE PHI MIA
ATL 1-2 1-2 6-4 6-4 @ KC DEN @ SD CAR
BAL 2-1 2-1 7-2 7-2 CIN @ PHI NE CLE
BUF 3-0 2-1 5-5 5-5 @ NYJ KC @ CLE NE
CAR 1-2 2-1 3-7 2-7-1 @ TB NO NYG @ ATL
CHI 1-2 1-2 6-4 5-4-1 IND @ GB STL @ DAL *
CIN 1-2 2-1 4-6 5-4-1 @ BAL CLE @ WSH @ JAX
CLE 2-1 1-1-1 1-9 3-7 PHI @ CIN BUF @ BAL
DAL 2-1 1-1-1 6-4 5-5 @ NYG @ SEA TB CHI *
DEN 1-2 1-2 7-3 5-4-1 PIT @ ATL HOU OAK
DET 3-0 2-0-1 1-8 3-6 STL @ SF @ TEN MIN
GB 3-0 2-1 6-4 6-4 SF CHI @ SEA NO
HOU 2-1 2-1 3-6 4-5 MIA @ JAX @ DEN TEN
IND 0-3 2-1 6-3 5-4 @ CHI MIN JAX --
JAX 1-2 1-2 4-6 4-6 @ MIN HOU @ IND CIN
KC 0-3 1-2 4-6 5-5 ATL @ BUF @ NO SD
MIA 0-3 0-2-1 3-6 3-6 @ HOU OAK NYJ @ ARZ
MIN 0-3 1-1-1 5-5 4-6 JAX @ IND SF @ DET
NE 2-1 2-1 6-3 3-6 @ TEN ARZ @ BAL @ BUF
NO 2-1 2-1 7-3 7-3 WSH @ CAR KC @ GB
NYG 2-1 2-1 7-2 5-3-1 DAL TB @ CAR @ PHI
NYJ 2-1 1-2 7-3 7-3 BUF @ PIT @ MIA SF
OAK 2-1 3-0 3-7 5-5 SD @ MIA PIT @ DEN
PHI 1-2 1-2 6-4 6-4 @ CLE BAL @ ARZ NYG
PIT 2-1 1-2 7-3 4-6 @ DEN NYJ @ OAK --
SD 2-1 0-3 5-5 4-5-1 @ OAK TEN ATL @ KC
SF 2-1 2-0-1 4-6 6-4 @ GB DET @ MIN @ NYJ
SEA 1-2 1-2 4-5 4-5 @ ARZ DAL GB @ STL
STL 0-3 0-3 1-9 3-7 @ DET WSH @ CHI SEA
TB 2-1 2-1 5-5 5-5 CAR @ NYG @ DAL WSH
TEN 2-1 1-2 6-4 7-3 NE @ SD DET @ HOU
WSH 2-1 2-1 5-5 4-5-1 @ NO @ STL CIN @ TB
* Game played on Monday, Oct. 1
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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09-07-12 12:36 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 11990
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Packers And 49ers Open Up At Lambeau Field
The Green Bay Packers hosting the San Francisco 49ers may not be the most watched game of NFL Week 1, but this 4:25 p.m. (ET) broadcast on FOX is definitely the best matchup.
The Don Best NFL odds screen opened Green Bay as solid 6½-point home favorites, but it has been quickly bet down to 4½-5. The total has gone in the other direction, currently at 46½-47 after starting at 45.
These are the two favored teams to win the NFC in the current future odds. The Don Best Linemakers Poll has Green Bay top-ranked in the entire league, followed by New England, Philadelphia and San Francisco (tied-for-fourth with Pittsburgh). However, the primetime Denver debut of Peyton Manning will beat this game in the ratings.
Green Bay had a perfect 13-0 record last year and looked headed towards its second-straight Super Bowl title. However a loss at Kansas City (19-14) on December 18 planted a seed of doubt and the Giants finished the job in the divisional round with a shocking 37-20 win at Lambeau.
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers returns to the scene of the ‘playoff crime’ and brings the NFL’s top-ranked scoring offense with him (35.0 PPG). The passing game should continue to be great and the running game good enough with Cedric Benson the starter while James Starks (turf toe) is out.
The big offensive question is at left tackle (Rodgers’ blindside) where Marshall Newhouse is the full-time starter after Chad Clifton was released. The 49ers were tied-for-seventh in the NFL last year with 42 sacks and keeping Rodgers ‘clean’ is a huge concern this game.
The Packers defense was worst in the NFL last year at 299.8 YPG, but better in points at 22.4 PPG (ranked 19th). There was a big loss in training camp with linebacker Desmond Bishop (hamstring) out for the year and several rookies will have to make immediate contributions, starting with first-round pass rusher Nick Perry.
San Francisco came within a whisper of making the Super Bowl last year, but was undone by some Giants magic and two turnovers in the NFC title game.
Coach Jim Harbaugh proved the pro game was right up his ally after coming over from Stanford. He had no trouble building a ferocious defense that finished second in points allowed (14.3 PPG).
The offense is the big question mark, the opposite situation of Green Bay. Quarterback Alex Smith was almost a casualty of the ‘Peyton Manning sweepstakes,’ but he’s kissed and made up with the organization and has a couple of new toys in receivers Randy Moss and Mario Manningham. The 35-year-old Moss is looking to bounce back after sitting out all of last year.
Harbaugh is still going to pound the ball first with Frank Gore. Bruising Brandon Jacobs was signed to be another option, but he’s doubtful this week (knee). The question is whether Smith can make enough plays in the passing game to beat a great team like Green Bay on the road.
Some additional betting notes to watch: Green Bay has won 13-straight regular season home games (11-2 ATS). The ‘over’ is 11-2 in those contests and also jumped the total in the playoff defeat to the Giants.
Green Bay is also 5-0 SU and ATS in Week 1 games the five seasons.
This series has been owned by the Packers recently, winning the last eight (6-1-1 ATS) with the most recent in December 2010.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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09-08-12 04:58 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 11990
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Las Vegas Money Moves
September 6, 2012
Back in June, the Saints were 11-point home favorites over Robert Griffin III and the Redskins. That number slid down to -9 ½ by July, went to -9 on Monday and by Thursday evening, the Saints were only -7.
At one point, the Cardinals were 2 ½-point favorites, but the combination of Arizona's two quarterbacks looking awful in preseason while rookie Russell Wilson shined with the Seahawks has made Seattle the 2 ½-point road favorite with money being attached suggesting that a move to -3 is probable by gameday.
So what gives? Why all the respect for these two rookies? We asked Coast Resorts sports book director Bob Scucci the question and he was pretty straight and simple with his answer. “We have some pretty impressive rookies out there that have shown they can move the ball and have a quick understanding of their systems.”
Quarterbacks like Andy Dalton and Cam Newton proved last season that they could come right out of college and make things happen immediately which has kind of put the thought in the back of every coach’s mind that has a veteran QB who they’re not too sure if he’s the answer to their team’s Super Bowl dreams.
LVH Super Book vice-president Jay Kornegay has another take on why we’re seeing early success from the rookies QB’s and faith given to them by their coaches.
"The kids are better coached from a young age through high school," Kornegay said, "moreso than even 10 years ago. We’re seeing 10-year olds playing cover-2 defenses. The college programs are so much better as far as preparing kids for the next level between the system and getting enough pass reps. It doesn’t surprise me to see them have success at all, and I don’t think the trend is going to end anytime soon."
Andrew Luck showed during the preseason that he can move the ball and take command of the Colts offense and bettors have respected his maturity and leadership. The Bears have been 9 ½-point home favorites against the Colts since the LVH first opened NFL spreads in Las Vegas April 18 and it wasn’t until Thursday that the line went to -10.
While those three quarterbacks have been given the ultimate compliment from bettors, the other two have been picked on.
“Ryan Tannehill will probably struggle the most out of the five rookies just because he doesn’t have the supporting cast around him,” said Kornegay.
Kornegay said the LVH opened the Texans as a 6-point home favorite in April and they have been bet all the way up to -12, with the bulk of that action coming after the Dolphins announced Tannehill would start.
As for the Browns and Brandon Weeden, who the public has bet against taking the Eagles at -8 and pushing it up to -9, Kornegay sees the writing on the wall. "Cleveland has a problem."
One of the bigger moves not involving a rookie quarterback is the Bills action coming in for their game at the Jets. New York was once six-point favorites in the early spreads offered and now are as low as -2 ½ at the South Point.
“I was kind of surprised by that move,” said Scucci. “I don’t understand the large move myself, but we’ve taken a lot of sharp money on the Bills. This will be one of those games where the public will be on the Jets, but we’ll lopsided in Bills straight bets.”
Kornegay kind of understands the move from a psyche standpoint.
“The Bills are full of optimism about their season and bettors have seen that and been betting them to win the conference, Super Bowl and OVER on their season win totals. Whereas the Jets seem to have a little more pressure on them with the media and struggling in the preseason.“
The Jets' offense did struggle throughout the preseason, but there didn’t seem to ever be sense of urgency at any time from Jets coach Rex Ryan. They didn’t even run a Tebow-inspired play on offense during the preseason for fear of tipping off the Bills on how to stop it. Also, the Jets weren’t the only team to go 0-4 in the preseason. Buffalo matched their effort by going winless as well.
The Titans have seen a lot of action the last two days from sharp money across town in their home game against the Patriots. New England was favored by 6 ½-points and they are all the down to -5 ½.
"Despite the number move on the Titans, we’re still going to need the Patriots on Sunday just because they’re such a huge public favorite," said Scucci.
The last 13 Super Bowls losers have gone 2-11 SU and 1-11-1 ATS in their season opener the following season.
The Broncos-Steelers Sunday night game should attract the most action of the weekend and thus far it’s been evenly balanced with the Broncos holding at -1 ½.
“I think Denver should be 2 ½ or 3 in this game,” said Kornegay, “but we’ll let the action dictate where we go from here.”
The top sharp plays of the week around the city are the Rams, Raiders, Bills, Redskins, and Titans.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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09-08-12 05:09 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 11990
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Week 1 Tips
September 7, 2012
Week 1 of the NFL season will showcase plenty of new faces under center, including four rookies starting their career on the highway. Only one of these four teams is favored (Seattle), while Cleveland is receiving a touchdown at home with Brandon Weeden making his debut. Since 2008, rookie quarterbacks to start on opening day have been a coin-flip proposition, as Matt Ryan, Mark Sanchez, and Joe Flacco all won, while Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford, and Sam Bradford all lost. We’ll take a look at the five new quarterbacks and their chances on cashing tickets to start the 2012 season.
Colts at Bears (-10, 43) – 1:00 PM EST
The Peyton Manning era is finished in Indianapolis with top pick Andrew Luck taking over the Colts’ franchise. Indianapolis split its four preseason games, while covering three times, including as a four-point underdog at Pittsburgh. The Bears won and cashed their final three preseason contests after losing the exhibition opener to the Broncos.
Chicago finished 8-8 last season, as the Bears lost five of their final six contests after Jay Cutler suffered a season-ending thumb injury. Lovie Smith’s club went 4-4 SU/ATS at Soldier Field in 2011, but the Bears own a 1-4 ATS record at home since 2009 when laying at least six points. The Colts managed covers in four of their final five games last season, while going 3-5 ATS away from Lucas Oil Stadium (all three ATS wins as double-digit underdogs).
Eagles (-9, 43) at Browns – 1:00 PM EST
The Browns will be starting their fifth different quarterback in as many years on opening day as the Eagles invade Northern Ohio. Philadelphia's expectations went through the roof prior to last season, but Andy Reid's club stumbled to a 4-8 start before winning its final four games to finish at 8-8. The Eagles wrapped up the preseason at a perfect 4-0, while covering three times, while the Browns lost their final two exhibition games at home, including a 27-10 defeat to the Eagles.
Philadelphia cashed its last four games to conclude the 2011 season, as the Eagles are just 5-6 ATS the previous 11 contests as a road favorite. Cleveland begins the Weeden era with a 6-1 ATS run to end last season, while going 10-1-1 to the 'under' in the final 12 contests. The biggest issue for the Browns will be scoring, as Cleveland put up 17 points or less in 14 of 16 games last season.
Redskins at Saints (-7 ½, 50) - 1:00 PM EST
Robert Griffin III captured the Heisman Trophy last season, but the former Baylor standout becomes the first rookie to start at quarterback for the Redskins on opening day in the Super Bowl era. Washington heads to New Orleans, as the Saints look to get on track following a tumultuous offseason that included season-long suspensions of head coach Sean Payton and linebacker Jonathan Vilma, but the former University of Miami star will play on Sunday after a judge overturned the ban.
The Saints won and covered all nine games at the Superdome last season, including eight victories by double-digits. New Orleans has put together a tremendous 16-3 ATS record at home since 2008 against non-division opponents, while the 'over' is 11-8 in this span. When Mike Shanahan took over in Washington, the Redskins cashed in five of their first seven games as road 'dogs. However, the 'Skins went 2-4 ATS the final six opportunities when receiving points on the highway to wrap up last season.
Dolphins at Texans (-12, 42 ½) - 1:00 PM EST
Miami went through a preseason to forget at 0-4 SU/ATS, while scoring just 43 points. The Dolphins are turning to rookie Ryan Tannehill to reinvigorate this Miami franchise, even though the team didn't beat one playoff squad in a 6-10 campaign last season. Now, Miami heads to Houston for a battle with a Texans' club going for their second straight playoff appearance.
Houston cashed in 12 of 18 games last season, but four of their six non-covers came against teams that didn't qualify for the playoffs. The Texans may be without one of their top offensive weapons, Arian Foster, who is listed as "questionable" with a knee ailment. The Dolphins have moved forward from the Tony Sparano era onto Joe Philbin, but Miami owns a 19-7 ATS as a road underdog since 2008, including four straight covers to close last season.
Seahawks (-2 ½, 40 ½) at Cardinals - 4:25 PM EST
How rare is it that Seattle is laying points away from the Pacific Northwest? The Seahawks are road favorites for just the fourth time since 2008, while winning just six of their last 25 games on the highway in the last three seasons. Seattle trots out former Wisconsin (and N.C. State) quarterback Russell Wilson for his first regular season game against an Arizona club that won six of eight home contests last season.
The Cardinals had plenty of problems in the preseason figuring out their quarterback quandary, as John Skelton came out on top over Kevin Kolb, who is making the big bucks after getting picked up from Philadelphia prior to last season. Arizona split a pair of games with Seattle last season with the home team winning each time, while the only two losses at University of Phoenix Stadium came to the Giants and Steelers. Under Ken Whisenhunt, the Cardinals have covered four of five openers, including last season's Week 1 victory over Carolina.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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09-08-12 05:18 AM |
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