RickJs Handicapping Picks NFL Plays and Hilton Picks
My picks this week in the Hilton Contest in the order I liked them at the time:
Cinci + 6.5
San Fran +5
Jacksonville +3.5 is a pure handicapping play as the public is split on the game about 50-50. Getting the hook on the 3 just puts this at the top of my list.
Tennessee +5.5 is one of those games that if you mention you like this side it will get you a lot of ridicule around the poker table. This is one of those setups that a few years ago you would find it and would laugh when you placed your bet down on it..knowing it was going to be good. Things have changed however and this setup is still pretty good but nowhere near the automatic win it used to be.
Not much to say about the other 3. However my 5th pick was between St. Louis and San Fran. But the line in the Hilton contest was only +7 on St. Louis so that made it an easy decision…if it would of been 8.5 I am not sure what I would of done.
I also considered Miami +13 but I am not going to go down the drain with an unproven rookie quarterback…at least on his first start ever!
Well hitting a solid 30% after the 1st 2 weeks I would not go very crazy on these!
My picks for week 3 in the order I liked them at the time:
I had to choose between Cinci and Carolina for my 5th pick. Carolina was a pick in the hilton contest with the line -2.5 and -3 at a few spots before game time. I avoided the trap! But I am sure many did not.
If there are any plays they will be put out tomorrow.
After 6 weeks I am 18-11-1. After a 3-7 start the last 4 weeks have been quite a rush going 15-4-1 or 77.5%.
I am now tied for 58th….1.5 pts out of 20th and 3.5 pts out of first.
My picks this week in the order I liked them at the time:
1. Jets +10.5
2. Baltimore +6.5
3. Cleveland +3
4. St Louis +5.5
5. Jacksonville 4.5
Most of the time the line moves where I have a pretty good line as the line moves. However this time Baltimore has moved to +7 and Jacksonville has moved to +6. Pretty significant moves against my picks. On the other hand Cleveland has moved to +1.5 and the other two about the same.
Other games of note. I considered Tampa bay +2.5. Everything I look at points to Tampa…however teams coming off of bye weeks and that are favored have a cover percentage of over 60%. That kept me away from tampa.
Going into Week 8 I am 20-14-1 or 58.57%. There are 750 entrants and I am tied for 92nd 2 pts out of 20th and 4.5 pts out of 1st. It would be nice to get another 4 week run!
My picks in the order I liked them at the time:
Some observations….the public is on the dog in about half the games! And in two of the games very heavy on the dog. That is very unusual. 2nd…I actually picked 2 favorites. Something I do not usually do…but that shows the unusual week that week 8 is. And finally one of my picks is on a dog that 71% of the public is on. That game is Washington. Everything I look at points to Washington +4.5 and all are strongly on that side…the problem is the public likes that side a lot also…so….I am am with the public on this one…occasionally they get come in…it will be an interesting game.